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Big Hype Prospects: Cruz, Abrams, Volpe, Veen, Wiemer

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This week, we investigate a mix of prospects at a wide range of levels.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Oneil Cruz, 23, SS, Pirates (MLB)
(AAA numbers) 247 PA, 9 HR, 11 SB, .232/.336/.422

When Tim Dierkes suggested I run this column, Cruz was his first example of the type of player he wanted to see covered. I’d previously written a fantasy column about “Peripheral Prospects” in this same format covering lesser-known guys like Ken Waldichuk and Brett Kerry. It’s only fitting to touch upon Cruz one more time. While his Triple-A numbers don’t jump off the page, he eventually settled in to the level. Since early-May, he’s batted .280/.374/.520 with an 11.4 percent walk rate and 17.7 percent strikeout rate. Reportedly, he was disappointed by his initial demotion, and it contributed to his April-long slump.

Since rejoining the Majors, Cruz is 4-for-18 with a stolen base. In four games, he’s already hit four balls over 100-mph, including two lasers over 110-mph. This is consistent with his track record. Cruz is built like a young Aaron Judge, and he hits the ball nearly as hard. His typical angle of contact is geared towards ground ball and line drive contact which could limit his home run production. When he does lift the ball, you can expect to see it soar. Anytime he’s in the lineup, Cruz is one of the most fascinating players in the league.

C.J. Abrams, 21, SS, Padres (MLB)
(AAA numbers) 151 PA, 7 HR, 10 SB, .314/.364/.507

Like Cruz, Abrams had a previous brief taste of the Majors and recently returned for four games. He’s 2-for-15 with one strikeout. Unlike Cruz, his exit velocities have been outright poor – just 81.8-mph. Abrams’ selection to the Padres roster followed on the heels of a particularly torrid multi-week stretch. He hit .398/.442/.519 over his last 95 Triple-A plate appearances. Included in the fun were four home runs, a 5.3 percent walk rate, and an 11.6 percent strikeout rate.

Such production indicated immediate readiness, especially for a prospect of Abrams’ caliber who scouts adore. If there’s a shortcoming in his profile, it’s that he doesn’t walk. It’s not necessarily an issue of discipline. He expands the zone in part because his speed has allowed him to still reach base in the minors. It’s possible he’ll learn to lay off marginal pitches in the Majors to improve his outcomes. If he does, he’ll flower into a high-quality leadoff hitter. There are still questions about his eventual defensive home – and not only because he has to share a field with Fernando Tatis Jr.

The worst-case scenario for Abrams is as an over-aggressive, contact-oriented slasher who plays all over the field. Between injuries and his incredible talent, we haven’t seen Abrams make many adjustments as a professional.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, Yankees (AA)
270 PA, 9 HR, 25 SB, .233/.326/.427

Over the offseason, I was virtually cornered by several Yankees fans who not-so-calmly explained that Volpe was the best prospect since Mike Trout. To the glee of everybody who loves to hate the Yankees, he performed particularly poorly until mid-May. Through May 17, he slashed a meager .170/.297/.330. Optimists cited four reasons he would rebound. First, the talent remained evident. He was working counts (13.8 percent walk rate). His .195 BABIP indicated poor luck. Lastly, he wasn’t the first prospect to wilt in chilly early-season weather.

As the calendar has heated up, so too has Volpe. He’s slashing .292/.356/.517 since May 18, a span of 132 plate appearances. He’s also putting more balls in play (6.8 percent walk rate, 15.9 percent strikeout rate) with a normal .319 BABIP. Volpe is on the shortlist for top prospect remaining in the minors. He’s also making a strong case for promotion to Triple-A – possibly by the end of this month.

Zac Veen, 20, OF, Rockies (A+)
258 PA, 8 HR, 25 SB, .259/.368/.440

The Rockies don’t exactly have an illustrious reputation with prospects. It’s nice to see Veen continue to perform to his draft pedigree. Scouting reports uniformly express concern about his hit tool playing against elite competition. While he possesses considerable raw power, his swing has qualities that some might describe as grooved. Such hitters can still succeed in the Majors. Billy Wagner once ridiculed Pat Burrell’s one-path swing (after allowing a home run). Joc Pederson might be a more relevant groovy comparison as a left-handed hitter with a pretty, loopy swing.

In any event, Veen is on track to spend some time in Double-A this season and debut either late in 2023 or early 2024. He works counts (14.3 percent walk rate) though he is also whiff prone (23.6 percent strikeout rate, 14.3 percent swinging-strike rate). While he’s 25-for-26 on the basepaths this season, it’s not clear if Veen will continue to run as he moves up the organizational ladder.

Joey Wiemer, 23, OF, Brewers (AA)
267 PA, 15 HR, 20 SB, .272/.348/.531

A divisive prospect, Wiemer is gaining steam as one of those guys who might succeed – perhaps even thrive – despite glaring flaws. He changed his mechanics heading into 2021 and unlocked massive in-game power. He launched 27 home runs in 472 plate appearances last season before tearing through the Arizona Fall League – one home run and a .467/.568/.667 triple-slash in 30 plate appearances.

There’s question if the hit tool will play in the Majors, but the power is evident enough to easily support a low-average approach. A worst-case scenario might look something like Adolis Garcia with plate discipline. Or Adam Duvall with discipline and an eagerness to run. He sells out for pull-side, fly-ball contact. He’s posted high BABIPs at every level, but this is a hitting profile that usually yields low BABIPs due to a cacophony of pulled grounders and easy fly outs. We should see him tested in Triple-A before long. Milwaukee might even need his help in the Majors late in the season if they don’t add outfield depth at the trade deadline.

Having watched him play several games, the energy he gives off evokes Bryce Harper.

Five More

Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (21): Last week’s lead BHP (that’s Big Hype Prospect), I noted Henderson would soon jump from around the 50th prospect to somewhere in the Top 10 as listmakers prepare their midseason updates. Since then, Baseball Prospectus’ Jarrett Seidler indicated Henderson might be the top prospect left in the minors. A highly-placed source at another major industry outlet confirmed Henderson is on a shortlist of about five players for their top prospect. As I understand it, this excludes all prospect-eligible players currently in the Majors like Michael Harris, Oneil Cruz, and C.J. Abrams.

Eury Perez, Marlins (19): Currently shredding Double-A hitters, Perez is perhaps the most-precocious pitching prospect since Julio Urias. While Urias’ development was eventually delayed by injuries, Perez remains both healthy and effective. Most of what I would say about Perez was gleaned from the Marlins system update posted to FanGraphs earlier today. So, I’ll let you read what Eric Longenhagen has to say directly.

Jeter Downs, Red Sox (23): Downs made his debut recently, struck out three times in four plate appearances, and was promptly optioned back to Triple-A. Once a fairly well-regarded prospect, he’s fallen off the map since joining the Red Sox in the Mookie Betts trade. He still possesses tantalizing power and speed along with decent plate discipline. Unfortunately, there’s a ton of swing-and-miss in the profile; the kind that’s readily exploitable by seasoned pitchers. The best-case scenario these days is a sort of Dylan Moore-like outcome.

Brett Baty, Mets (22): Baty was, for me, the most visibly impressive prospect in the Arizona Fall League. Like Volpe, he had a chilly start to his Double-A campaign – his second visit to the level. He currently has a 14-game hitting over which he’s tamed his strikeout rate and pulled his season-long batting line up to an above-average .282/.372/.450 performance. Like the most of the other Double-A bats we’ve profiled today, he’s seemingly on the cusp of a promotion.

Noelvi Marte, Mariners (20): Two weeks ago, I noted some in the scouting biz had indicated Marte’s early-career dominance might be linked to physical traits that won’t necessarily scale as he advances to higher levels. In plain English, the boy got big young. Last week, I issued something of a retraction because I’d misplaced my source. Since then, I rediscovered the initial note, and it comes from a highly reputable source with access to dozens of scouts. All of this is to say that Marte doesn’t seem to be the second-coming if you buy into this early-development narrative. Not everybody does! This has been the most contentious take to appear in BHP. I look forward to fomenting more discussion about Marte. For what it’s worth, his June-long slump has continued. He hit .214/.241/.250 over the last week and is at .191/.257/.324 for the month.

Mets Notes: Showalter, Rotation, Infield

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The Mets’ deal with incoming manager Buck Showalter was announced as a three-year contract, but while it was reported to be the most lucrative managerial deal in club history, terms weren’t reported at the time. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets some specifics now, however, reporting that Showalter will be guaranteed $11.75MM in total over the next three years in Queens. He’ll be paid $3.5MM this season before earning $3.75MM in 2023 and $4MM in 2024. The signing falls closely in line with the three-year, $12MM deal that Bob Melvin secured when joining the Padres as their new skipper earlier this winter.

A few more notes on the Mets as fans continue to await meaningful updates in CBA talks…

  • The Mets haven’t been afraid to jump into the deep end of the free-agent market this winter, but despite some recent speculation about the possibility of Clayton Kershaw as a fit, SNY’s Andy Martino writes that the Mets didn’t have any contact with Kershaw’s camp prior to the lockout. As fun as it would be for Mets fans to dream on a rotation spearheaded by Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Kershaw, most expect Kershaw to either remain with the Dodgers or head to the Rangers, whose stadium is a short drive from Kershaw’s home. The Mets were linked to free agent Yusei Kikuchi prior to the lockout, while Jeff McNeil and Dominic Smith — either of whom could conceivably be part of a deal to bring in some rotation depth — saw their names pop up on the rumor mill last month. Beyond Scherzer and deGrom, the Mets currently project to lean on Taijuan Walker, Carlos Carrasco and some combination of Tylor Megill and David Peterson at the back of the rotation.
  • Matthew Roberson of the New York Daily News looks at the shortstop situation for both New York clubs, noting that Francisco Lindor’s presence at shortstop and a growing number of upper-level infield prospects could point to an eventual trade for the Mets. Ronny Mauricio is still just 20 years of age but has already reached Double-A, while 22-year-olds Mark Vientos (Triple-A) and Brett Baty (Double-A) will impact the third base situation in the not-too-distant future. There is, of course, room for the entire group to contribute to the Mets simultaneously, depending on position changes and injuries. That said, the presence of three well regarded left-side infield prospects gives the front office plenty of firepower to make deals at some point down the road if newly minted GM Billy Eppler finds a deal to his liking. Both Baty and Mauricio ranked among Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects last week, while Vientos landed on a list of 15 more who “just missed.” There’s no indication that the Mets have seriously entertained moving any of Mauricio, Baty or Vientos just yet, but their names will surely be popular as teams talk with the Mets post-lockout and again at the July trade deadline.

Player Pool Additions: Giants, Mets, Rays, Nats

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Teams have been tinkering with their 60-man player pools throughout the 2020 season, at times cutting veterans to make room for prospects and at times cutting bait on some lower-tier organizational pieces in order to make room for more experienced additions (be they via waiver claim, free-agent signing, etc.). There have been several clubs to announce additions to their player pools already Friday, and while such moves seem innocuous, it’s of course worth pointing out that adding a player to the 60-man pool makes him eligible to be traded.

That doesn’t mean all of the players added to pools today are on the trading block — far from it. We’ve also already seen the Marlins (in the Richard Bleier trade) and the Blue Jays (in the Taijuan Walker trade) take advantage of using players to be named later to get around the rule that only players in a 60-man pool are eligible to be traded. Both sent a PTBNL to their trade partner, each of whom is expected to be a non-60-man player that will be announced after the season.

So while not all of today’s additions will change hands, it’s still notable that some of these players now could change hands without needing to be listed as a PTBNL. In that scenario, a new club could get a look at said player at its alternate training site and, if close enough to the Majors, perhaps even promote them in September.

Here’s a quick rundown…

  • The Giants announced that first baseman/outfielder Chris Shaw and righty Melvin Adon were added to the 60-man player pool. Shaw, 26, was San Francisco’s first-round pick (No. 31 overall) back in 2015 and rated among the club’s best prospects for several years. His shine has worn off, however, after some shaky showings in the upper minors and the Majors. Shaw carries a .280/.328/.538 slash in 1092 Triple-A plate appearances but has struck out at a 30 percent clip there. He’s hit .153/.244/.222 in 82 big league PAs. Speculatively, he seems like a change-of-scenery candidate. Adon, also 26, received an 80 grade on his heater at FanGraphs this offseason and was called the hardest thrower in the minors by Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel. However, they also gave him just 30 command on the 20-80 scale and called his chances of realizing his ceiling low due to his inability to locate. Adon walked 34 batters, hit another and threw 11 wild pitches in 55 1/3 innings last year.
  • The Mets added third baseman Brett Baty, tweets Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. Baty, 20, was the No. 12 pick in the 2019 draft and is considered to be among the organization’s top prospects. He divided last year between rookie and Low-A ball, where he batted .234/.368/.452 with seven home runs in 228 plate appearances. Now that Baty’s in the fold, the Mets have all of their top five prospects in the player pool — including Andres Gimenez in the Majors — as DiComo points out.
  • Right-hander Brent Honeywell has been added to the Rays’ pool and reported to their alternate site in Port Charlotte, tweets MLB.com’s Juan Toribio. The highly touted Honeywell underwent Tommy John surgery in February 2018, hasn’t pitched since and may not take the mound for the Rays this season. By adding Honeywell to their pool, though, the Rays will give the 25-year-old an opportunity to rehab while facing professional hitters, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times notes. For now, though, “there are still plenty of boxes” for Honeywell to check before he makes his MLB debut, according to manager Kevin Cash.
  • The Nationals already added righty Sterling Sharp and outfielder Jeremy De La Rosa earlier today (as covered here), and this afternoon they announced two more additions: infielders Jackson Cluff and Drew Mendoza. Both have reported to the alternate site in Fredricksburg. Cluff was a 2019 sixth-rounder who spent his first pro season in Single-A, where he batted .229/.320/.367 with five homers and 11 steals in 280 trips to the plate. The 23-year-old is now generally regarded as one of the Nationals’ top 20 prospects. Mendoza, another 2019 draft choice (third round, No. 94), hovers around Washington’s top 10 farmhands at multiple outlets. The 22-year-old also spent 2019 at Single-A, slashing .264/.377/.383 with four HRs and three steals in 239 plate appearances.

Mets To Sign First-Round Pick Brett Baty

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JUNE 14: The deal will be announced tomorrow, Healey tweets. Baty receives $3.9MM, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (Twitter link), thus leaving the Mets some added room to work with.

JUNE 11: Mets first-round pick Brett Baty will take a physical and sign a deal with the club this weekend, Tim Healey of Newsday reports. Financial details aren’t known yet, but as the 12th overall selection, Baty’s pick comes with a recommended slot value of $4,366,400.

The 19-year-old Baty is a high school third baseman from Texas who entered the draft as a consensus top 20 prospect. FanGraphs was highest on the now-former University of Texas commit going into the draft, ranking him eighth. Baseball America had Baty at No. 15, while ESPN’s Keith Law and MLB.com placed him 17th.

Although there are concerns about Baty’s age and whether he’ll stick at third base, all of those outlets think a great deal of his power potential and general offensive upside. FanGraphs’ Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen compare Baty to Cardinals third baseman Nolan Gorman, a first-round pick in 2018 who’s one of the majors’ best prospects.

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