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Francisco Alvarez

Mets Option Francisco Alvarez

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The Mets announced Wednesday that they’ve optioned top catching prospect Francisco Alvarez to Triple-A Syracuse. The move has been widely expected, given the presence of both Omar Narvaez and Tomas Nido on the roster.

Alvarez, who made his MLB debut last year at just 20 years of age, underwent ankle surgery last October. While he was healthy enough to participate in spring training, he had a rough showing in camp, going 3-for-28 with a pair of walks and ten strikeouts in 31 trips to the plate. Alvarez turned 21 in November and has just 45 Triple-A games and last year’s five big league games under his belt, so it’s hardly surprising that the organizational preference is for him to continue to develop with regular reps behind the plate in Triple-A, rather than as part of a three-catcher setup with occasional DH reps at the MLB level.

Heading into the 2023 season, Alvarez is ranked among the game’s top 10 overall prospects at each of Baseball America, MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus, The Athletic and ESPN. He tore through Double-A pitching as a 20-year-old last season, hitting .277/.368/.553 with 18 home runs, a 12.2% walk rate and a 24% strikeout rate. Alvarez’s dipped a bit in Triple-A, where he was one of the league’s youngest players but still hit .234/.382/.443 with nine homers, a 17.1% walk rate and 26.3% strikeout rate in 199 trips to the plate. He went 2-for-12 with a homer and a double in his brief MLB debut.

The Mets still view Alvarez as their catcher of the future, and with good reason. He’s a legitimate power bat with a chance to stick behind the plate and develop into an average or better defender at a premium position. While many catchers are slower to develop than other prospects, Alvarez had success at the plate in the upper minors before even reaching his 21st birthday.

Following the offseason trade of James McCann to the Orioles, the Mets expect to use Narvaez as their primary catcher — at least early in the season. The veteran backstop is coming off a disappointing 2022 season in Milwaukee but hit a combined .266/.351/.403 in five seasons prior and has developed into one of the game’s better defenders at the position in recent years. Narvaez inked a two-year, $15MM deal with the Mets, but the second season of that contract is a player option, so with a good year it’s quite possible he’ll return to the open market in search of a larger and lengthier pact.

An ideal scenario for all parties would see Narvaez enjoy a strong season while Alvarez eventually forces his way onto the roster with a well-rounded performance in Syracuse. That’d give Alvarez the opportunity to ease into the big league picture later in the season while setting the stage for Narvaez to decline his player option and Alvarez to ascend to the starter’s role in 2024. The aforementioned Nido, meanwhile, can serve as a defensive-minded backup in both 2023 and 2024 — his final two seasons of club control.

Things don’t always go according to plan, of course, and it’s possible that injuries or poor performances from some members of this catching trio will necessitate an earlier recall for Alvarez or lead to Narvaez exercising his player option after a shaky year. As things stand, however, it appears likely that Alvarez will finish out the 2023 season with less than a full year of big league service time, meaning he’d still be controllable for six full seasons — all the way through 2029. He picked up six days of MLB service in 2022, so he’d need an additional 166 days on the Major League roster or injured list in order to reach a full year of service and accelerate his free-agent trajectory by a year.

Mets Notes: Senga, DH, McNeil, Extensions

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One of the bigger moves of the Mets’ active offseason was the signing of starter Kodai Senga to a five-year, $75MM guarantee. The 30-year-old righty is making the jump from Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, where he posted a 2.59 ERA across 11 seasons. Senga was one of the highest-upside hurlers available in free agency, though there’s naturally some amount of performance risk until he translates his production against MLB competition.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports the Mets also expressed some concern about Senga’s medical evaluations before finalizing the contract in December. Further details aren’t clear, though Heyman notes Mets personnel have expressed confidence in Senga’s health prognosis for the upcoming season. That’s hardly surprising, as whatever concerns the organization had raised didn’t deter them from agreeing to the fourth-largest deal for a free agent pitcher this offseason. That contract also affords Senga an opportunity to opt out and retest the market after the 2025 season, though the Associated Press reports that’s contingent on the righty throwing a combined 400 innings over the next three years.

In other news out of Queens:

  • The Mets never pursued a full-time designated hitter upgrade this offseason partially out of a desire to preserve a path to at-bats for their younger hitters, writes Andy Martino of SNY. Top prospects Francicso Álvarez and Brett Baty each reached the majors late in the 2022 season. Each is a polished hitter but faces questions about their defense at catcher and third base, respectively. That’s also true of corner infielder Mark Vientos, who’s not quite the same caliber of prospect as Álvarez or Baty but earned an MLB look with a .280/.358/.519 showing at Triple-A Syracuse. Martino suggests the Mets aren’t likely to give them early-season looks at DH in hopes of each continuing to show progress defensively, though there could be a path to bat-only reps later in the year — or for veteran Eduardo Escobar to slide to DH if Baty seized the third base job at some point. Lefty-swinging veteran Daniel Vogelbach earned the larger share of a DH platoon to open the year with an excellent .261/.382/.497 showing against righties anyhow. Offseason signee Tommy Pham or last summer’s deadline pickup Darin Ruf are righty bats who could shoulder the load against southpaws. Ruf’s second-half struggles give Pham the upper hand in that regard, but Martino writes the Mets are at least likely to carry Ruf on the roster into Spring Training.
  • New York locked up one of their homegrown stars last Friday, signing Jeff McNeil to a four-year, $50MM extension to potentially buy out a trio of free agent years. General manager Billy Eppler addressed the deal earlier this week, expressing broad openness to negotiations with other important players who are early in their careers (link via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). First baseman Pete Alonso is the most logical candidate for those kinds of talks as he enters his penultimate season of arbitration control, though neither Eppler nor Alonso’s representatives at Apex Baseball have indicated publicly whether discussions might take place over the coming weeks. Discussions with McNeil, at least, were a long time running before culminating in a deal. Will Sammon of the Athletic reports Eppler and McNeil’s camp at Paragon Sports International first opened extension talks in November 2021, just before the lockout froze communications between teams and 40-man roster players until March.

Mets To Sign Michael Perez To Minor League Deal

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The Mets are bringing back catcher Michael Perez, reports Mike Puma of The New York Post. Presumably, it’s a minor league deal for Perez, who was outrighted off the club’s roster in October.

Perez, 30, has spent some time in the majors in each of the past five seasons, spending time with the Rays, Pirates and Mets. He seemed passable with the bat in his first couple of seasons with the Rays, hitting .258/.321/.367 in 2018 and 2019. That was just 135 plate appearances but led to a 91 wRC+, roughly average for a catcher. In the three seasons since, however, he’s produced a line of .149/.222/.282.

Defensively, Perez has generally been considered a strong defender. Prospect reports from his time as a minor league highlighted his blocking and game-calling, though his framing was considered a weak point. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus have considered him to be a subpar framer in his time in the big leagues so far, though Defensive Runs Saved considers his defense to be better than average.

Last year, despite not hitting much, he spent a decent amount of time rostered due to injuries. The Pirates were trying to cover for Roberto Pérez, who underwent season-ending hamstring surgery. Michael Perez got selected in his place and lasted on the roster for more than two months but barely hit at all. He was designated for assignment and sent to the Mets for cash considerations, with that club dealing with injuries to James McCann and Tomás Nido at the time. He stuck with the Mets until getting designated for assignment and outrighted in October.

For the Mets, they clearly liked Perez enough to bring him back as non-roster depth. The major league team will feature Omar Narváez and Nido, with a third catcher on the 40-man roster in Francisco Álvarez. The 21-year-old Álvarez made his MLB debut late last year and is considered one of the best prospects in the league, but that’s mainly due to his bat. He seems likely to begin the season at Triple-A to continue developing as a defender. Joel Sherman of The New York Post recently spoke with general manager Billy Eppler, who said there’s a chance Alvarez could crack the big league club out of Spring Training. Some have suggested the club should carry three catchers in order to get the bat of Álvarez into the lineup, though doing so would give him less time to continue developing his defense than if he were the everyday backstop in Triple-A. However the Mets choose to play it, Perez will give them an experienced option to have in Triple-A should they need it at some point. If he gets back onto the roster, he still has an option year remaining and will give the Mets some roster flexibility.

Big Hype Prospects: Alvarez, Muller, Ruiz, Naylor, Westburg

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Our coverage of in-the-news prospects continues. A couple signings and the Sean Murphy trade give us plenty of fodder to chew upon. The Braves did an excellent job of converting unneeded role players into a premium upgrade. We’ll touch on several of the former-Braves now enjoy new homes with the Athletics and Brewers.

Francisco Alvarez, 21, C, NYM (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 495 PA, 27 HR, .260/.374/.511

The Mets continue to fortify their Major League roster, building out a resiliency of depth they’ve lacked for… the entirety of my living memory. The Mets have always been a club of “just enough,” a formula that rarely works in a 162-game season with extended playoffs.

The addition of catcher Omar Narvaez to veterans James McCann and Tomas Nido seemingly gives New York the opportunity to promote Alvarez if and when they believe he is ready for a regular starting role. That could be immediately out of Spring Training or later in the season. Cynically, it’s worth noting the Mets might gain an extra season of club control by holding Alvarez back until late April. Due to his age, there’s appeal to such an approach.

The recently-turned 21-year-old had a brief cup of coffee to finish 2022. He flashed trademark power, discipline, and a tendency to whiff. At this early stage of his career, he might be a tad too disciplined – a common issue for precocious, discipline-oriented sluggers. Minor league pitchers are exploitable in ways Major Leaguers are not. A second stint in Triple-A – where he compiled 199 plate appearances with a 121 wRC+ – could help him to add a touch of targeted aggression to his approach. Otherwise, he risks carrying over-30 percent strikeout rates early in his career. The tools are there for more acceptable whiff rates. Even without that adjustment, he profiles as an above average hitter.

Then there’s the matter of defense where some of his mechanics are a tad unconventional. This is made necessary by his stocky build. He doesn’t squat as deeply into his crouch as most catchers. Without runners on base, he uses a kneeling approach. There are questions about his blocking (when kneeling) and pitch-framing (when squating). Even his arm, which is at least 60-grade, could play down if opponents correctly guess when he squats and kneels.

Kyle Muller, 25, SP, OAK (MLB)
(AAA) 134.2 IP, 10.63 K/9, 2.67 BB/9, 3.41 ERA

The highest-rated prospect dealt by the Braves in the Sean Murphy trade, Muller has performed well against Triple-A competition for two straight seasons. With the Braves contending and enjoying considerable rotation depth, Muller hasn’t received many opportunities in the Majors. In total, the southpaw has made 12 appearances, 11 starts, for a total of 49 innings with a 5.14 ERA. Muller has a four-pitch repertoire. Three pitches grade out as average or better. His changeup is considered a platoon pitch. His ascent has been slowed by poor command. Although his low walk rate last season seems a positive development, none of the contacts I reached out to believe his command has truly improved. As of now, he profiles as an inefficient fifth starter or high-upside reliever.

Esteury Ruiz, 23, OF, OAK (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 541 PA, 16 HR, 85 SB, .332/.447/.526

The other notable prospect in the Murphy swap, Ruiz had a season to remember in the minors. Neither the Padres nor Brewers gave him many opportunities in the Majors despite rostering him for a considerable chunk of the season. All told, he attempted 102 steals and succeeded 86 times (84.3%) over a total of 576 plate appearances. With new rules on the way, Ruiz could find himself among the stolen base leaders if he hits enough to merit a starting role.

That last detail is in doubt. Despite incredible minor league numbers last season, a half dozen public scouting reports all point to a reserve role. The Athletics undoubtedly hope experience will unlock at least a second-division starter upside – as they attempted with Cristian Pache last season. While he’s drawn some (very) lazy comps to Alfonso Soriano for his combination of power and speed, Ruiz’s hit tool is suspect. He’s shown an ability to work counts and avoid strikeouts, but he seems to do this at the expense of exit velocity. As such, his power plays down in games since he’s so rarely taking his best swing.

Bo Naylor, 22, C, CLE (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 510 PA, 21 HR, 20 SB, .263/.392/.496

Between the lost 2020 season and a terrible 2021 campaign, Naylor found himself entering last year with much to prove. He recovered his prospect panache by adjusting his swing mechanics and now profiles as the Guardians catcher of the future. He even made eight plate appearances for Cleveland, though he went hitless with five strikeouts. The defense-oriented Guardians opted to bring in Mike Zunino on a one-year, $6MM deal to bridge the gap.

Naylor has rare speed for a backstop. The last catching prospect to display similar wheels was Daulton Varsho. The last such catcher to stick at the position as a longterm starter was J.T. Realmuto. Naylor’s defense doesn’t draw rave reviews, but it’s merely below average. A scout I questioned believed he can be an average defender. Cleveland’s preference for elite defensive catchers might lead to a position switch for trade for Naylor. I keep thinking back to Varsho, an acceptable but unexceptional catcher who turned into a gold glove center fielder almost overnight.

Jordan Westburg, 23, SS, BAL (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 622 PA, 27 HR, 12 SB, .265/.355/.496

One of my beats last year was with an Orioles blog, Baltimore Sports and Life. At the end of the season, there were two schools of thought regarding the Orioles 2023 middle infield. One group (including me), advocated for signing one of the four free agent shortstops, moving Gunnar Henderson to third base, and using Jorge Mateo and Ramon Urias at second base until prospects arrived. Others were ready to hand the keys directly to Westburg (or the next guy below) and save the budget for one of the top pitchers on the market.

Baltimore GM Mike Elias opted for Door #3, choosing to ink Adam Frazier on a one-year rebound contract eerily reminiscent of the deal handed to Rougned Odor prior to last season. While Frazier won’t truly block Westburg or others, his presence will help delay the need to promote them. Nevertheless, Westburg is seemingly ready. He spent most of last season in Triple-A where he posted a 129 wRC+. As a hitter, he’s a well-rounded pile of 50-grades. He might be going down a Willy Adames-like path – not a household name but better than a typical core performer. He’s a tad stretched defensively on the left side of the infield, but he should be an above average defender at the keystone. While there’s utility risk here, it’s a premium version of it – in the same way that Chris Taylor, Tommy Edman, and Jake Cronenworth are “utility men.”

Four More

Joey Ortiz, BAL (23): One of my favorite Peripheral Prospects, Ortiz isn’t all that highly rated nationally. The Orioles love him. He’s contact-oriented and gets to more game power than you might expect based on his size. He’s trained as a utility man who profiles as a plus defensive second baseman and acceptable elsewhere. He might just beat Westburg to the Majors. Ortiz is already on the 40-man roster.

Jeter Downs, BOS (24): When the Red Sox acquired Downs in the Mookie Betts trade, he was an up-and-comer with impressive minor league stats. With Boston, he developed a serious swinging strike problem – and a commensurate 30 percent strikeout rate. Questions about his hit tool predated the trade, but this outcome feels like a total developmental failure. Now in DFA limbo, Downs looks like somebody another org might be able to salvage.

Freddy Tarnok, OAK (24): It’s been a slow burn for Tarnok who has long profiled as a future big leaguer even without flashing standout skills. He has a four-pitch repertoire, but his secondaries need further refinement. The short path to the Majors is via the bullpen where his velocity might play up. Oakland can afford to be patient.

Royber Salinas, OAK (21): The last notable prospect acquired by Oakland for Murphy, Salinas has starter caliber stuff and poor command. The instinct among evaluators is to move him to relief and watch him take off. He’s entering his Rule 5 evaluation year which could force the Athletics hand.

Francisco Alvarez Undergoes Ankle Surgery, Expected To Be Ready For Spring Training

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The Mets announced this evening that rookie catcher Francisco Álvarez underwent surgery to repair damaged cartilage in his right ankle. The club’s expectation is that’ll be ready for the start of Spring Training.

Álvarez is regarded by prospect evaluators as one of the top young talents in the sport. The 20-year-old backstop (21 next month) combined for a massive .260/.374/.511 line in 495 plate appearances between Double-A Binghamton and Triple-A Syracuse this season. The Mets rewarded him with a late-season big league call in an attempt to add some right-handed juice to the lineup as they tried to hold off the Braves in the NL East race. Álvarez collected two hits (including a homer) in 12 at-bats down the stretch, and Atlanta seized the division title. New York carried him on the Wild Card series roster against the Padres but only gave him one plate appearance in the loss.

New York certainly views Álvarez as their long-term backstop, but it’s possible he opens next season back in Triple-A. He only started one game behind the dish in the majors, with some reservation among evaluators about his current defensive level. He’s generally expected to remain a catcher long-term, but the Mets could determine he needs a few more reps behind the plate before taking over as a #1 catcher in the majors.

At some point in the not too distant future, however, Álvarez figures to get that longer look. The Mets have veteran James McCann under contract for two more years at a combined $24.3MM. The Mets would presumably welcome an opportunity to shed some of that money after McCann hit only .195/.257/.282 in 61 games this season. They’re not likely to find much trade interest, and McCann is well-regarded enough as a game caller and defender New York seems likelier to wind up keeping him around. He could eventually move into a depth role as Álvarez gains more defensive experience.

Tim Healey of Newsday first reported Álvarez’s surgery before the team announcement.

Mets Select Francisco Alvarez, Designate Alex Claudio For Assignment

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The Mets have made it official: they’ve selected the contract of top catching prospect Francisco Alvarez from Triple-A Syracuse, confirming his previously reported promotion to the big leagues. In a pair of corresponding roster moves, Darin Ruf was placed on the 10-day injured list due to a neck strain, and lefty Alex Claudio was designated for assignment. Alvarez will serve as the Mets’ designated hitter today, batting seventh in his Major League debut.

Considered by most outlets to be among baseball’s ten best prospects — and considered the top prospect in the sport at MLB.com — Alvarez will cap off a monstrous season with his first call to the Majors. Splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A this year, the 20-year-old slugger posted a combined .260/.374/.511 batting line with 27 home runs, 22 doubles, a 14.1% walk rate and a 24.8% strikeout rate in 495 plate appearances. He’s been on an absolute tear since returning from a stint on the minor league injured list earlier this month, mashing at a .362/.483/.596 clip over his past 58 plate appearances.

That’s a stark contrast to the veteran Ruf, acquired from the Giants prior to the trade deadline. The 36-year-old has been one of the game’s most potent bats against lefties in recent years but has stumbled to a dismal .152/.216/.197 batting line in 74 plate appearances as a Met — handily being outproduced by the same right-handed slugger for which he was traded; J.D. Davis is batting .280/.375/.525 in 136 trips to the plate as a Giant. (The Mets also sent lefty Thomas Szapucki and a pair of prospects to San Francisco in that swap.)

Alvarez’s first start will come against Braves southpaw Max Fried — a tough opponent but a favorable platoon matchup at least. In 132 plate appearances against southpaws in the minors this season, he’s raked at a .315/.424/.595 clip and slugged 15 extra-base hits (eight homers, seven doubles). Fried is (obviously) more than a cut above the quality of pitchers Alvarez has been facing in Double-A and Triple-A, but he’ll still add some right-handed thump in a pivotal series that could very well decide the winner of the National League East.

Claudio, 30, tossed 3 1/3 shutout innings with the Mets earlier this month, marking his ninth consecutive season with time spent on a Major League roster. A fixture in the bullpens of the Rangers and then the Brewers from 2014-20, Claudio struggled through a poor 2021 season with the Angels and subsequently spent the bulk of the current campaign in Triple-A. He posted a combined 3.44 ERA in 311 2/3 frames in that ’14-’20 stretch between Texas and Milwaukee before serving up a grisly 5.51 ERA in 32 2/3 innings as an Angel. He’s posted a 3.91 ERA in Syracuse this year, in addition to his 3 1/3 shutout innings for the Mets’ big league roster.

The Mets will place Claudio on outright waivers or release waivers within the next couple days. He has more than six years of Major League service time, so he’d be a free agent at season’s end regardless. It’s possible he’ll accept an outright in hopes of potentially being selected back to the roster in the event of an injury, but he’ll be a free agent this offseason regardless.

Mets To Promote Francisco Alvarez

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The Mets will promote catching prospect Francisco Álvarez in advance of the team’s pivotal weekend series against the Braves, reports Daniel Álvarez Montes of El ExtraBase (Twitter link). The 20-year-old is one of the sport’s best minor league talents, checking in sixth on Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 prospects list.

It’ll be the first major league call for Álvarez, who entered the professional ranks as an amateur signee out of Venezuela. One of the better prospects in the 2018-19 international signing period, the 5’10” backstop has only raised his stock in pro ball. He hit very well in rookie ball during his first minor league season, but he lost a year of game action with the cancelation of the minors in 2020. Álvarez opened the ’21 campaign in Low-A but quickly proved himself far too advanced for the level, and he spent most of the year in High-A.

Álvarez hit .247/.351/.538 with 22 home runs in 84 games at that level, astonishing production for a 19-year-0ld catcher. It vaulted him near the top of prospect lists entering this season, with Álvarez cracking the preseason top 15 at Baseball America, The Athletic, ESPN and FanGraphs. He opened the year at Double-A Binghamton and connected on another 18 round-trippers in 67 games. His overall .277/.368/.553 line across 296 plate appearances earned him a bump to Triple-A Syracuse in early July.

The minors’ top level has given Álvarez his toughest challenge to date, but he’s still generally held his own. Over 199 plate appearances there, he carries a .234/.382/.443 slash with another nine homers. He’s striking out at a career-worst 26.1% clip, contributing to the mediocre batting average, but the rest of his profile has remained strong. Álvarez has walked in a stellar 17.1% of his trips to the plate there, and he’s collected six doubles in addition to the longballs.

Between the two upper levels, Álvarez owns a .260/.374/.511 line with 27 homers and 22 doubles over 495 plate appearances this season. That excellent showing has been enough to convince the Mets front office he can hold his own against big league arms, even at his age. Installing him into a pennant race and directly in advance of the Mets’ biggest regular season series of the year is a strong show of faith, but Álvarez has performed well at every rung on the ladder thus far.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the club is likely to break him as a right-handed option at designated hitter. The Mets acquired Darin Ruf from the Giants at the trade deadline in hopes he could fill that role, but that acquisition hasn’t yet panned out. Ruf has a putrid .152/.216/.197 line in 29 games as a Met. He hit a serviceable .216/.328/.373 in 314 plate appearances before the trade, but his struggles since landing in Queens have led to some questions about how manager Buck Showalter will use the DH role. Fellow deadline acquisition Daniel Vogelbach has excelled since coming over from the Pirates and will continue to pick up the playing time against right-handed pitching. Álvarez gives Showalter an alternative to the struggling Ruf for at-bats against left-handers.

It doesn’t seem likely he’ll step directly in as the primary catcher, however. The Mets have veteran James McCann as the starter, with Tomás Nido backing him up. McCann is hitting only .190/.256/.264 in 180 plate appearances, his second straight down year offensively. The veteran has rated as a slightly above-average defender, and he’s drawn strong reviews for his work with the pitching staff. Sending Álvarez behind the plate for the final few games of the season is more than the front office and coaching staff appears to be comfortable with, particularly given McCann’s longstanding familiarity with the staff.

Scouting reports on Álvarez have long suggested he’s more of a bat-first catcher. That’s largely a testament to his offensive potential, but evaluators have expressed some concern about his defense. BA’s scouting report notes that he’s had some inconsistency as a pitch framer and ball blocker. The outlet also suggests that Álvarez’s plus raw arm strength can play down because of some flaws in his throwing mechanics.

There’s general optimism that Álvarez can eventually iron out those concerns and become at least a competent defender. That’s more of a long-term question, though. The immediate pressing issue for the Mets is whether he can make an impact offensively. New York enters the weekend set holding a one-game advantage over Atlanta. New York would also hold the tiebreaker over the Braves if they can take even one of the three contests, so they’d head into next week at the top of the division unless they get swept. Securing their first NL East title since 2015 would come with a corresponding first-round bye, making these final six contests crucial.

Álvarez’s promotion for such important regular season games raises the possibility he’ll also crack the postseason roster. Only players on a team’s 40-man roster by September 1 are automatically eligible to partake in the playoffs. However, players in an organization but not on the 40-man by September 1 can be added to a playoff roster in place of someone on the injured list via petition to the commissioner’s office. That situation is fairly common every postseason, so the Mets shouldn’t have much issue getting Álvarez onto the playoff roster if they desire.

New York will have to add him to their 40-man roster before tomorrow evening’s game. Their roster is currently full, so they’ll need to make a corresponding transaction. He’d have been added to the 40-man after the season anyhow to keep him from being taken in the Rule 5 draft, so there’s little harm in bringing him up a few weeks early. Álvarez will collect his first few days of major league service but won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2028 season at the earliest. His fastest path to arbitration-eligibility is after the 2025 campaign, and it’s certainly possible he’ll spend more time in the minors polishing up his defense and at least delaying his free agency trajectory.

In the meantime, Mets fans will get their first glimpse at a player they hope to be a key piece of the franchise’s future. McCann is under contract for two more seasons, due $12.15MM annually through 2024. It stands to reason Álvarez will have an opportunity to supplant him on the depth chart at some point next year. For now, he’ll get his feet in the majors as a bat-first option for the stretch run — with some postseason action perhaps on the horizon.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Prospect Notes: Alvarez, Jung, Casas, Rodriguez

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There was some concern that Mets top prospect Francisco Alvarez could require surgery on his ailing right ankle, but the team received relatively good news on that front, tweets Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. While Alvarez does have a loose body in his ankle, he won’t undergo surgery and will instead receive an injection to alleviate some of the discomfort he’s been experiencing. The hope is that Alvarez could resume baseball activities as soon as next week.

Alvarez, 20, ranks among the top ten prospects in all of baseball on the majority of publications and is currently the game’s top-ranked prospect at FanGraphs and MLB.com. He tore through Double-A pitching earlier this season despite being one of the league’s youngest players, hitting .277/.368/.553 with 18 homers and 16 doubles through 296 plate appearances. However, Alvarez stumbled a bit in Triple-A, slashing just .180/.340/.378 in his first 141 plate appearances. His strikeout rate rose from 24% in Double-A to 28.4% in Triple-A. Alvarez hasn’t played in a game since Aug. 23.

A few more notes on some of the game’s top prospects…

  • Rangers fans are (understandably) clamoring for third baseman Josh Jung to make his Major League debut, and general manager Chris Young and interim manager Tony Beasley discussed with Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News the team’s decision to hold off on promoting him just yet. Texas is also taking a look at infield prospect Ezequiel Duran, who’s playing third base in the big leagues right now and would be displaced with a Jung promotion. “We have an opportunity to play [Duran] and we just want to take advantage of that until it’s not there,” Beasley said. From a bigger picture vantage point, Jung still has just 83 plate appearances in Triple-A after missing the first four-plus months of the season due to shoulder surgery. Grant points out that Jung still hasn’t gone a full week playing third base every day — he’s spent eight games at DH — and the Rangers will want to see him at the hot corner as much as possible in the big leagues. When Jung originally underwent surgery, the expectation was that he’d miss the majority of the season and perhaps be able to DH for a few weeks late in the year. He’s beaten both the timeline and that DH-only projection, and he’s decimated Triple-A pitching to the tune of a .299/.349/.610 batting line. It still seems Jung will debut in the near future, but Young emphasized the organization is focused on his long-term outlook rather than getting his bat into the big league lineup as soon as possible.
  • While slugger Triston Casas wasn’t among the Red Sox’ initial September call-ups, manager Alex Cora said on WEEI’s Merloni, Fauria & Mego show this week that the team has discussed giving Casas his first taste of the big leagues sometime this month (Twitter link via Steve Hewitt of the Boston Herald). Casas, 22, missed two months with a high ankle sprain but has been excellent since returning to the lineup in Triple-A Worcester, hitting .300/.410/.515 with five homers, 11 doubles and a triple in 156 plate appearances. The 6’4″, 252-pound first baseman is considered one of the best bats in the minors and ranks 31st or better among all MLB prospects at The Athletic, MLB.com, Baseball America and FanGraphs. The Red Sox will have to add Casas to the 40-man roster this winter in order to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft anyhow, so there’s plenty of reason to get an earlier look at him.
  • Right-hander Grayson Rodriguez made his first appearance for an Orioles affiliate in three months last night, returning from a Grade 2 lat strain that, at one point, threatened the remainder of his season. Rodriguez threw just 31 pitches in 1 1/3 innings with Class-A Aberdeen and exited after back-to-back walks in the second inning. He told reporters after the game that he’d simply hit the pitch count the organization placed upon his first appearance since June 1 (link via Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com). Considered by many to be the game’s top pitching prospect, Rodriguez overwhelmed Triple-A lineups prior to his injury, pitching to a 2.09 ERA with a 37.4% strikeout rate and a 6.5% walk rate through 56 innings. He’s not on the 40-man roster at the moment, but he’ll need to be added in the offseason or else be Rule 5-eligible, so it’s at least possible the O’s call him up for a big league debut late in the regular season if his rehab work progresses nicely.

NL East Notes: Alvarez, Hernandez, Sanchez

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Star Mets prospect Francisco Alvarez is undergoing evaluation on a sore right ankle, SNY’s Andy Martino reports (Twitter link).  As per other Peter Botte and Mike Puma of the New York Post, the injury isn’t thought to be too severe, though simply given the calendar, there is a possibility that the Mets could shut Alvarez down for what remains of the 2022 season.  More will be known in a few days’ time, after Alvarez has been more fully tested.

One of the top minor leaguers in all of baseball, there has been speculation that the 20-year-old Alvarez might receive a call-up to the majors this season, as the Mets haven’t gotten much from the catching position.  However, even before his ankle injury surfaced, Alvarez wasn’t off to a great start in his first taste of Triple-A action, batting only .180/.340/.378 in 141 plate appearances.  It certainly isn’t the ideal platform to launch a young player into making his MLB debut in the thick of a pennant race, and naturally the Mets want to be as careful as possible with the development of a possible cornerstone player of the future.

Other updates from around the NL East…

  • The Nationals shifted Yadiel Hernandez to the 60-day injured list on Saturday, officially ending the outfielder’s season.  (In a corresponding move, Washington reinstated left-hander Seth Romero from the 60-day IL and assigned him to Double-A.)  Hernandez was retroactively placed on the 10-day IL on August 19 due to a left calf strain, and his third MLB season saw the 34-year-old hit .269/.312/.410 with nine homers over 327 plate appearances.  Hernandez has spent much of his Nats tenure as the left-handed hitting side of an outfield platoon, posting roughly league-average offense since the start of the 2021 campaign.  He is under team control through 2026, but given his age and the Nationals’ rebuild, it is possible the team might consider moving onto a younger option for next season.
  • Sixto Sanchez’s continued shoulder inflammation will result in a cortisone shot on Monday, per Craig Mish of the Miami Herald (via Twitter).  Sanchez made his MLB debut with 39 innings in 2020, but hasn’t since pitched at any level due to shoulder problems, which included surgery in July 2021.  It is becoming increasingly unlikely that Sanchez will get any game action in the majors or minors before 2022 is out, making it another lost year for the Marlins right-hander.

Big Hype Prospects: Alvarez, Baty, Crow-Armstrong, Langeliers, Bello

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Julio Rodriguez is on the verge of a massive contract extension. Who will be the next prospect to ink a mega-deal? Today’s Big Hype Prospects won’t answer that question, but it’s possible we’ll discuss them all the same.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Francisco Alvarez, 20, C, NYM (AAA)
141 PA, 6 HR, .180/.340/.378

Despite the triumphant return of Jacob deGrom, the Mets divisional aspirations are endangered. Their once dominant lead over the Braves has dwindled to just two games. The club has received exactly 0.0 WAR from their catchers. Alvarez, whose combination of discipline and rare raw power can lead to some irresponsible comps (like former Met Mike Piazza), has held his own at Triple-A. The low batting average is the result of an unfortunate .209 BABIP. Low BABIPs in the minors can be symptomatic of a flaw. Sometimes, they’re just bad luck over a small sample. Alvarez had similar issues in High-A last season (.260 BABIP) so it’s possible his plodding speed and pull-heavy approach might yield an all-or-nothing slugger, especially early in his career. Defensive reviews are mixed and can sometimes leave a Gary Sanchez-like taste on the tongue. He has the capacity and work ethic to stick at the position, but maybe his bat is too potent to subject to the rigors of battery work?

Alvarez would certainly upgrade the Mets lineup over the likes of James McCann and Tomas Nido. However, they’re both talented defenders who have experience with the Mets pitching staff. If New York wants to experiment with Alvarez ahead of the postseason, now is the time to do it.

Brett Baty, 22, 3B, NYM (MLB)
35 PA, 1 HR, .161/.235/.258

Baty’s first exposure to Major League pitching hasn’t exactly gone according to plan. He had only 26 successful plate appearances at Triple-A before he was called upon. Much of his season was spent in Double-A where he hit .312/.406/.544 in 394 plate appearances. Baty is a disciplined hitter who makes hard, low-angle contact. With 91-mph average and 113-mph max exit velocities, he’s already demonstrated his power in just 24 batted ball events. His tendency to keep the ball on the ground could yield a contact profile something like a less-extreme Yandy Diaz. Whereas Diaz is nigh immune to strikeouts, Baty has a bit of swing-and-miss in his game.

Eduardo Escobar is nearing a return which could spell the end of the Baty experiment – at least for 2022. It’s also worth noting that his struggles have occurred over just nine games. He wouldn’t be the first player to need a couple beats before catching his stride.

Pete Crow-Armstrong, 20, OF, CHC (A+)
235 PA, 9 HR, 16 SB, .286/.332/.521

Known to many prospect-watchers by his initials “PCA,” Crow-Armstrong was acquired from the Mets as part of the Javier Baez trade in 2021. The Cubs instigated a mechanical change to his swing which has led to above average pull-side power this season. Including a thorough stomping of Low-A pitchers, PCA has 16 home runs and 29 stolen bases across 418 total plate appearances. He’s a gifted center fielder who was originally expected to fit in the Majors as a defensive savant. The addition of power to his profile could unlock a star-level ceiling. There remain issues with his bat including elevated strikeout and swinging strike rates. He’s young for his level and showed better plate discipline in the past. Consider him a volatile work-in-progress who now appears likely to have a role as a future regular.

Shea Langeliers, 24, C, OAK (MLB)
36 PA, 2 HR, .294/.306/.647

A key component of the Matt Olson trade, Langeliers has made an impactful debut. He’s already popped two home runs, four doubles, and a triple in just nine games. That’s par for the course with Langeliers. He has middling plate discipline, plus power, and a below average feel for contact. When he does connect, it tends to be loud. His best trait is defense where he’s expected to be a comfortably positive contributor. The presence of Sean Murphy is only a temporary impediment – it’s widely assumed the veteran Athletic will be traded over the winter.

Brayan Bello, 23, SP, BOS (MLB)
22 IP, 9.00 K/9, 4.91 BB/9, 7.36 ERA

Recently returned from the injured list, Bello had his best big league outing against the division rival Blue Jays. He tossed five innings of two-run ball while compiling seven strikeouts. Bello has a four-pitch repertoire led by a bowling ball 96.5-mph sinker. He also has a slightly harder fastball he can locate up in the zone. A slider and frequently-used changeup round out his pitch mix. In 18 minor league appearances he posted 12.10 K/9, 3.40 BB/9, and a 2.34 ERA. His carrying trait is an over-60 percent ground ball rate which, if maintained, would rank second among qualified starters between southpaw Framber Valdez (67.5%) and right-hander Logan Webb (58.4%). Like many sinker specialists making their debuts, Bello has struggled with free passes. He got away with iffy command in the minors because his stuff played even when thrown down the pike. He’s liable to need an adjustment period in the Majors.

Five More

Mark Vientos, NYM (22): A possible alternative to Baty and Escobar, Vientos is red hot for the month of August. He’s batting .403/.448/.661 with four home runs in 67 plate appearances. He draws negative reviews for his third base defense and is in the process of switching over to first base. The bat appears as if it should play in the Majors at either position, though he might be a tad ordinary at the cold corner. He’s just shy of a 30 percent strikeout rate for a second consecutive season in the upper-minors.

Grayson Rodriguez, BAL (22): Rodriguez has been sidelined for nearly three months with a lat strain. He is due to face hitters in a simulated game later this week. It’s possible he could make his debut in late-September.

Gunnar Henderson, BAL (21): Rumors abound of an impending callup for Henderson. Club officials are supposedly pondering the implications on his development. Henderson hasn’t exactly knocked down doors in August, batting .259/.364/.435 with 12.1 percent walk and 31.3 percent strikeout rates.

Robert Hassell III, WSH (21): One of the prizes acquired for Juan Soto, the Nationals aggressively promoted Hassell to Double-A where he’s hit .147/.237/.206 through his first eight games. Like Baty above, it’s not uncommon for young players to scuffle when first presented with a new challenge. And even Mike Trout has eight-game slumps. Strikeouts have been an issue for Hassell since joining the Nats org.

Curtis Mead, TB, (21): Recently recovered from a month-long injury to his elbow, Mead has five hits and two walks over 14 plate appearances. The right-handed slugger could make a useful platoonmate with David Peralta, especially once rosters expand in a few days. He’s Rule 5 eligible this winter so getting a jump on his service clock should be seen as acceptable – assuming the Rays can find a 40-man spot. He’s hitting .299/.391/.536 on the year, mostly at Double-A.

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