The Dodgers have joined the growing list of suitors for four-time All-Star and two-time World Series Champion Xander Bogaerts, according to reporter Marino Pepén. Pepén adds that the Cubs and Twins have also joined Bogaerts’ market, adding to a list that also houses the Phillies, Red Sox, and Padres.
With the departure of Trea Turner, the Dodgers are among the teams looking to secure a shortstop this winter, having recently been connected to the Brewers’ Willy Adames. MLBTR predicted that Bogaerts will receive a seven-year, $189MM deal this offseason.
The 30-year-old hit a strong .307/.377/.456 in 2022, witnessing a noticeable drop in power compared to 2021 (23 HRs, .493 slugging in 2021; 15 HRS, .456 slugging in 2022). Nevertheless, Bogaerts posted his fifth-straight season with a wRC+ over 125 and kept his strikeout rate below 19% for the eighth season in a row. Additionally, the nine-year vet posted his strongest defensive season of his career by measure of every publicly available metric (4 Defensive Runs Saved, 4.9 Ultimate Zone Rating, 5 Outs Above Average). Bogaerts’ glove had been discussed as his primary flaw, having been rated as a below-average defender and a candidate for an eventual position change. His strong defensive 2022 season will likely aid his ability to remain at the premium shortstop position, positioning him for a contract near $200MM.
From a financial standpoint, Bogaerts, along with Dansby Swanson, represent cheaper alternatives to Carlos Correa and Turner (both projected to sign contracts worth more than $250MM by MLBTR). Nevertheless, with the recent non-tendering of Cody Bellinger and the decision to decline Justin Turner’s 2023 club option, the Dodgers currently have only $152MM committed to their 2023 payroll, per RosterResource (after finishing the 2022 season with more than $260MM on their books). A Dodgers/Bogaerts deal would push the team up to $179MM — leaving ample room for another potential blockbuster signing.
The Dodgers have also been linked to free agent reliever Alex Reyes, per Juan Toribio of MLB.com. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz had projected the two-time All-Star to receive $2.85MM in his penultimate trip through the arbitration process, but the Cardinals opted to non-tender the flamethrower.
Reyes, who was once ranked as one of the best prospects in all of baseball, has dealt with ailments his entire career. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2017, tore a tendon in his lat in 2018, and underwent shoulder surgery in 2020. After a healthy 2021 season where Reyes earned All-Star honors while pitching to a 3.24 ERA in 72 1/3 innings with a robust 30.0% strikeout rate, albeit with an extremely high 16.4% walk rate, injuries returned. Reyes would be forced to undergo season-ending shoulder surgery in May, wiping out his entire 2022 season.
Despite Reyes having an unclear timetable to return, the Dodgers have earned a reputation for signing injured relievers to multi-year contracts, with the expectation that the player will perform in the later years of the deal. Additionally, Dodgers’ pitching coach Mark Prior has been highly regarded in recent years for his work, with Los Angeles’ bullpen pitching to the second-lowest ERA (2.87), fourth-highest strikeout percentage (26.7%), and second-lowest walk percentage (7.5%) in the entire league.
Are there any teams not ‘in’ on Bogaerts? LOL
The Red Sox.
and how do you know that?
I believe LordD99 was making a joke.
No he was not boston never had a real interest in retaining him
Yes, do not put false narratives before pur Lord!!
But he’s right, you know. If we were interested, Bogaerts would already be signed with us for next year.
Pedey: I’m thinking the Red Sox have offered Xander a high AAV deal for 5-6 years. I think the number of years will be the sticking point. I doubt they have a problem paying him $30-35M or maybe more per year.
Cleveland, Pittsburgh and Tampa. But if he was willing to sign at a significant discount they might lol
What are the Padres thinking? They already have 2 shortstops. Preller’s goal seems to be to have a $20M+ player at every position.
Machado can opt out after this season and Soto only has 2 years of arbitration control. Probably want to cover themselves in case they can’t re sign 1 or both of those guys.
So no reason to address openings that haven’t happened. What if Michael has a down year and doesn’t opt out? What if Soto has two more years like 2022? Payroll is already stretched. Maybe look at 2023 needs first?
My Reds…:(
Pirates. We’d rather load up on 1st basemen. Can never have enough, it appears
Mets
Are there any marquee FAs the Dodgers aren’t trying to sign?
Seems like the Dodgers check-in on high profile for a couple of reasons. One, to signal to Dodger fans that they’re trying to sign high profile players even if that interest is not very high. Two, just in case the market for said player plummets and they can obtain that player at a discount or shorter term deal.
To me, at shortstop, it seems more likely that the Dodgers go to the cheaper route of either dealing for an existing player or going with Lux.
Xander has his only good defensive year during his walk year. Interesting.
Defensive metrics vary so much year to year. I think you really have to trust the eye test.
Correct, there are some guys that the metrics will have rated as a bottom tier defender one year, and then the next they will have him rated in the top tier.
I could be wrong, but I believe it was Mitch Haniger I was reading about the other day that has rotated between being a bottom and top defender multiple years in a row, or something like that.
I mean, common sense tells you that a player’s abilities do not vary that much from year to year. Now, what might increase or decrease is the number of difficult plays a player is forced to try and make, and that would impact their defensive metrics, but overall, I’d tend to think a player’s defense remains fairly steady from year to year.
That isn’t to say that Player A cannot become a better defender, look no further than the work Ron Washington has done with Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson, and Ozzie Albies, among others. So, I could understand a relatively slow but steady uptick in a player’s defense, but this whole he’s one of the worst defenders and then he’s one of the best defenders nonsense is clearly flawed..
Guys play banged-up too and that creates a lot of variability. Brandon Crawford, for example, had a knee issue that affected his play last year, but late in the season he was back to full-range and playing like his former GG self.
I think health, guys playing at 80-90%, is oftentimes a bigger factor than we know.
Castellanos was the worst outfielder defensively however he said his mind wanders during a 162 game season. He said he’s more focused in the playoffs Lolol
Haniger has had injuries that may account for his variance. As to XB, he hasn’t gone from bottom to top. He’s gone from bad to barely average. Since the shift will be limited, it will be interesting to see how much his lack of range is a factor going forward.
Let’s look at Bogie-s histories of partners. Once Pedie got hurt, it became a revolving door. While Story got hurt, he was probably the best defensive second baseman in the league. Add in Devers at third and you realize why metrics don’t rate him well historically.
Because defensive metrics do vary, conventional wisdom is to look at a minimum of 2 seasons. 3 or 4 seasons is even better. So it’s one thing for the metrics to show up and down seasons, indicating something more median between the extremes. But it’s another thing when they’re not good over an entire career, with only one good one, which is the case with Bogaerts. The one good season would appear to be an outlier.
“3 or 4 seasons is even better”
As long as you weight them. The further you get from the present, the less meaningful they become. Too often people add up and divide by 4 (seasons). — That analysis isn’t better.
I said 3 or 4 because most recent stats are more germane. I’ve never heard of the add/divide approach, but I trust that you’re correct that some will do that.
I agree, each year needs to be looked at individually. 3 great season with 1 poor one would suggest to me there was some reason for the poor 4th. Like bad or misleading data, injury, or just bad luck. I’d think the guy was a good defender, and not something equal to the average of the 4 seasons
Or to put it less gently, defensive metrics are crap.
Wrong. They’re useful if they’re understood, and correctly interpreted. Though I’m sure Luddites will favor errors and fielding percentage.
BlueSkies – Thank you for saying it, they truly are crap.
tad – How can you be so trusting of some of these newer stats when the entities producing them don’t even agree with each other? For instance how do you know which to use, fWAR or bWAR or WARP? Having statistics that aren’t unilateral is an absolute joke.
Try challenging some of the formulas, as I have already done numerous times, and you’ll soon realize not to believe everything you’re told.
I look for consensus. Defensive metrics aren’t perfect, but when I see a general agreement over several seasons, I think it would be foolish to simply reject them as “crap”. They aren’t perfect, but they’re still better than looking at misleading stats like errors and fielding percentage.
No metric is “perfect” so that isn’t a useful criterion. Neither is favorably comparing a bad thing to something even worse.
What you actually don’t see in defensive metrics is general agreement over seasons, what you see instead is players being measured as good and poor defenders in sequential seasons, and the different metrics coming to opposing results. Even looking at hundreds if not thousands of defensive encounters with a batted ball, the defensive metrics struggle to produce stable results. Even the people who like to cite them acknowledge this problem.
So just because someone has created a statistic doesn’t mean they are measuring anything. Everything about the results of defensive metrics tells us they are measuring more noise than signal. So if it’s troublesome to call them crap, how about just pretty bloody useless?
“What you actually don’t see in defensive metrics is general agreement over seasons, what you see instead is players being measured as good and poor defenders in sequential seasons, and the different metrics coming to opposing results.”
That is totally untrue. You do see general agreement season to season, with occasional outliers. For example take Bogaerts over the last 4 seasons:
2019: DRS -9, OAA -7
2020: DRS -4, OAA -3
2021: DRS -5, OAA -9
2022: DRS 4, OAA 5
The numbers agree. He had a good defensive year in 2022, But he’s clearly a below average defender
Or look at Correa:
2019: DRS 9, OAA 11
2020: DRS 7, OAA 5
2021: DRS 20, OAA 12
2022: DRS 3, OAA -3
All the numbers are in general agreement except for the outlier of Correa’s 2022. But it’s still reasonable to surmise that Correa is a good defender overall.
Clearly, you’re wrong that you don’t see agreement over seasons. The numbers do generally agree Like hitting, players have some seasons when they’re better with the glove, and others where they’re not. But there’s good statistical evidence from defensive metrics who is a good defender and who isn’t.
I see no way to avoid defensive statistics. Maybe a real life example is inflation. There are a few ways of measuring it, but the overall conclusion is that inflation is high.
And there is not reasonable alternative. You either listen to the statistic(s) of your choice, or you ignore it completely.
tad – I agree with you on errors and fielding percentage.
Like many other things, stats become crap when they are misused or misunderstood.
Like BABIP … a high number doesn’t necessarily mean the hitter is “lucky”, they could be a line drive hitter who hits the ball hard and hits them where they ain’t. Yet so many people don’t realize that and therefore misuse the stat.
Joe – I’m very glad you’re not a scout for my Boston Red Sox.
Only two players, and still you show Bogaerts going from being a poor defender to suddenly becoming a good one, and Correa, the opposite. Other players show even more radical departures from a mean, and more frequently.
In reality you’re doing exactly what I’ve already mentioned, and that’s averaging multiple seasons together because those hundreds or thousands of defensive encounters in any given season aren’t enough for these models to produce stable statistical results. So, there’s my point again.
The irony is your generalized conclusion that Bogaerts is a below average defender and Correa better than average could be made just as convincingly and with a whole lot less flimflam simply by watching them play the game. So what’s the value of the stat, really? Practically nothing, as far as I’ve ever been able to see. This is a problem with baseball today. Too many simply can’t believe their own eyes.
Sure, there’s an alternative, and it’s called using your eyes. I very much doubt teams are evaluating the defensive performance of their players merely or even primarily with stats. Coaches and managers can see when their players are playing their positions well, or not. They can also see why they are, or not, in ways statistics will never capture.
The bottom line here is, many things are highly resistant to mathematical modeling and the trick is knowing when a model is suspect. Pushing a lot of data through the model and getting highly variable results is a big red flag.
Hitter’s performance varies year to year, but defender’s can’t? If you can’t see some value in the numbers I feel sorry for you. You complain that I only showed 2 players, and yet you have shown zero, to back up your assertions. And, I am in no way averaging the numbers.
I can’t see Bogaerts or Correa make every defensive play, making the eye test anecdotal evidence. But the stats do cover every play. Batting stats can also be misleading. so why bother looking at them? The data is there. If you choose to reject it, that’s your prerogative.
Aw, you feel sorry for me. What an argument.
nothing wrong with putting in hard work with motivation. its a good recipe
80% of athletes have their best seasons in walk years. Look it up.
Should I look at someone like Judge, who probably had the best walk year in the history of the game.
milt – I agree, guys like JD Martinez and Gallo are the exception.
Wish Prior made all the pitching changes in a game, Roberts certainly can’t
So you don’t like the Friedman game plan and think it would change if someone else was implementing it?
Explain.
If anyone can resurrect Alex Reyes, it is the Dodgers.
The stench of desperation…
I’m tired of seeing the Cubs mentioned on all the top FA’s. I’ll believe it when I see it.
Please don’t let the Dodgers get Reyes that would actually be a steal
You think? Reyes has been crazy wild for his entire career.
But Mark Prior seems to be the Pitcher Whisperer.
Can definitely understand why Bogarts would want to leave Boston. The team is the worst in the division by a mile with no chance of getting back to respectability anytime soon. Those fluke world championships were a long time ago I foresee another 1918 like drought in the future for them. As far as the Dodgers go I would take a shot on him. He did well in Boston and should really thrive leaving that toxic city and atmosphere.
LOL. Not very stupendous.
This has gotta be bait lol
Sign Bogaerts, put him at 2B, and play Lux at SS.
I don’t get the fascination with a Lux. Zero pop and horrible defense.
He’s already a pretty solid player overall and he just turned 25, so it’s not outrageous to think he might have another gear or two that he can reach based on his prospect pedigree.
I’m with you King. I like Luc.
Especially when he uses the force!
Nothing matters if Roberts is still at the helm and blowing one playoff game after the other.
Bogaerts wants to be paid as a shortstop not second baseman.
The Dodgers can afford to pay a 2B like a SS.
Anything can happen. I’ll believe it when I see it.
I’m not sure what is so hard to believe about the Dodgers paying big bucks for a free agent they want or a free agent being willing to take their big bucks to have a shot at a WS ring every single year, but okay.
I’m not saying you’re wrong. I’m saying I think it’s a long shot that Bogaerts is the starting second baseman for the Dodgers next year. If it happens, I will gladly tip my cap to you.
Fair enough. I’m just saying, whatever the Dodgers want, they usually get.
Unless maybe Steve Cohen also wants what the Dodgers want lol.
I see. Agreed.
Why would the Dodgers want Bogarts when they could keep Trea Turner on instead??
Hi, Trumbo. Bogarts is expected to get $100 million less than Trea Turner.
Personally, I think the Dodgers should pass on all of the big four shortstops. I am more worried about getting one more ace pitcher to add to Urias-Kershaw-Gonsolin-May.
Bobby Miller Ida highly regarded prospect, but I expect a short term veteran signing like Verlander or DeGrom.
Exactly, Miller, Grove and Pepiot are not ready for 2023 and one may be traded for a rental SS or CF. Verlander or deGrom for three years $110 to $120 million would be better than an 8-10 year deal for a BIg 4 shortstop.
Manny, it’s going to take more than $120 million/3 for either JV or deGrom. Need to start at Scherzer’s 43 mil per year.
I think Verlander may get $43 million per year. I think deGrom will get a lower AAV than that. But there is no comparable to deGrom, so close to a career ending injury and so close to being best pitcher in NL.
Agreed, the risk, as is the reward, is huge. The question is, will the Rangers give deGrom 4/160?
manny…not my team, but….Urias is the most underrated pitcher in all of mlb
Larry,
I agree. Urias gives up a lot of solo home runs when he is up by multiple runs, which hurts his “fielding independent pitching”. But when you play on a team that is very high scoring and has great defense, FIP is not the best indicator.
I hope that the Dodgers extend Urias this Winter to the tune of around eight years $192 million. He is young and talented. Hopefully he learned from his bad mistake in his personal life and will not repeat it. He does not seem like Osuna or Ozuna, who both seemed like bad apples.
My belief remains that Bogaerts will remain a Red Sox. There’s a disconnect from their view on what Bogaerts is asking and what they believe the market will pay, so they’re letting him discover the market price isn’t as high as he hopes and then the two sides will negotiate a deal. The two are worth more together. It’s a rational approach with admittedly one problem: Scott Boras!
I think Red Sox will either extend Devers or sign Bogarts by late January 2023. If they can sign Bogaerts for $180 to $190 million, I think the Red Sox are the clear front-runner notwithstanding Boras.
Maybe six years at $30 million per year, with a club option for a seventh year at $30 million or a club buyout for $3 million.
All you need is one crazy GM, but I otherwise agree with your and LordD. I don’t know if Bogaerts is any worse than these guys, but he is older and his defense is in question. I don’t think his numbers will be anything we can’t match, as much as a question of whether or not we want to match.
Boegarts is a little older and won’t cost as much, and he has more power. Turner will cost more and relies on speed, 32 infield hits!
That’s a fair point. Plus, there was a lot of swing and miss/chase from Trea in the 2nd half of the season. Add that to his lazy defense (yes, I said it), I could easily see the Dodgers moving on from Trea instead of paying his asking price.
Per this article the Dodgers were no longer interested in Turner, which is news to me
This being in the article is news to me. I sure can’t find it.
With the departure of Trea Turner, the Dodgers are among the teams looking to secure a shortstop this winter
And where does it say the Dodgers are no longer interested in him? That’s the part of what you said that isn’t in the article.
Go Tigers!
Reyes was on his way to being one the best…….ever……
Dodgers will definitely make a couple splash hits! Friedman always laying in weeds waiting to pounce, he rarely shows his hand until the deal is done!
Boegarts is the best fit for the Dodgers, and they can move him to third down the road!
“Rarely shows his hand” LOL
Every major signing they’ve had has been telegraphed for months…
No you misunderstood he never shows his cue cards. Keeps them in breast pocket then pulls them out to announce the trade. He has one written up for every player all he does is change the name and a few more stats. It is true listen to him when he signs another player.
Do your homework, Friedman rarely shows his hand! The columnists make all the guess work. Betts deal no one saw coming, the Freeman move no one saw coming, the Padres thought they had Max Scherzer and literally minutes before the deadline, Friedman snagged not only Scherzer but Turner as well. He will do the same this year! Just because Dodgers have a ton of money and are usually linked to “ everyone” but Friedman rarely shows his hand!
@Terry B
Stop it, “splash hits” is a proprietary Giants term.
Don’t Bogaerts that joint my friend.
You’re not going to fill Xander’s shoes with those Little Feat.
When I think of Bogart and joint, I think of Rick’s Place in Casablanca.
puff puff pass LOL
I’m sure that Correa will get more money than Bogaerts, but to believe that Carlos is more valuable is comical. You would be out of your mind to not be interested in having Xander on your team.
A power hitting 2B-3B versus a real SS who was a cheater, apples and oranges.
Folks think the Dodgers are in on Xander as a SS…..we will wake up to them signing Xander to play 3B and then sign someone like Swanson/Turner to play SS.
My wife just walked in and said, and I kind of quote, “F this bleep. The Padres are going to sign Bogey to play 2B and that F’ing Bloom is going to stick us with some 2nd rate schmuck at short.”
She is one of those crazy Red Sox fans.
Smart woman she’s a keeper
Sleep with the light on is my advice.
“With the departure of Trea Turner…” – did I miss something, did Trea sign with some team? As often as I check this site, I find that hard to believe…
He’s a free agent so that’s officially departed.
It’s possible Harper is luring Turner to Philly, with Betts drawing Bogaerts to LA. Turner is the better player, but both are good fits personnel wise.
Turner is getting up there in age. This year he was not fantastic.
Would love to see him back in Boston but will not be upset if he signs elsewhere for much more money.
Dodgers should sign one of Bogaerts/Turner, Rodon, Nimmo, Judge and some RP’s. Very doable after shedding over 100 million this offseason.
For the Dodgers, I don’t like any of the top four FA options because of price in money and years. I think they need to see if the market for Bogaerts (very unlikely) or Swanson (unlikely) comes back to them. Lux is the stop gap. Adames and Rosario might be trade options. Andrus is small comfort 2nd tier FA and I am not sure a better option than Lux.
My concern is that defense up the middle is going to become only MORE important (if that is even possible) – and especially at 2B – because the shift is going away. So I don’t love Muncy as your everyday 2B. Unsure if Taylor can play a lot of 2B with his elbow – certainly the Dodgers avoided it last year. And while I really look forward to Busch at the plate, reports indicate he is not a guy you want playing 2B on the regular, much less with the shift banned. Maybe need to bring in a Segura at that point to help man 2B?
Dodgers need two bats. Makes most sense for one of them to be at SS – or if you move Lux to SS – at 2B. Other has to be in OF.
Tricky for sure.