There’s roughly a week until impending free agents are permitted to speak with other teams. Clubs have an exclusive negotiating window with their free agents for five days after the World Series wraps up.
An extension for any notable free agent this close to the offseason would register as a major surprise, but teams figure to keep in contact with their top players. The Braves and All-Star shortstop Dansby Swanson have talked potential contracts since at least mid-August. Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote last month the sides had exchanged formal proposals, and Jon Heyman of the New York Post now sheds a bit more light on discussions. According to Heyman, the Braves made an offer in the $100MM range at some point during the season.
Precisely when the Braves made the proposal is unknown, but it’s now clear Swanson is in strong position to beat roughly $100MM on his next deal. He’s headed to free agency on the heels of a career year. The former first overall pick has always been a strong defensive shortstop, but he was arguably the game’s top defensive infielder in 2022. That earned him his first career Gold Glove a few months after his first trip to the Midsummer Classic. Swanson also had one of his top offensive showings, connecting on 25 home runs and posting a .277/.329/.447 line while playing in every one of Atlanta’s games.
Swanson’s production tailed off a bit in the second half, but his overall line checked in 16 points above league average by measure of wRC+. That’s right in line with the platform-year showing for Javier Báez and better than that of Trevor Story, each of whom were free agents in a loaded shortstop class last offseason. Both Báez and Story were going into their age-29 seasons, as Swanson is now. They each landed $140MM guarantees on the open market, and both players locked in opt-out clauses into their deals (although the Red Sox can override Story’s opt-out by triggering a club option for a 7th season). Swanson’s representatives at Excel Sports Management are surely well-aware of those recent precedents, and it stands to reason they could look to beat the $140MM mark.
Each of Swanson and Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has gone on record about a mutual desire to keep the shortstop in Atlanta. Swanson is a Georgia native who’s never played for another team at the big league level, and it stands to reason he’d be happy to stick around. Whether he’d take some kind of discount to do so isn’t known, although that he apparently turned down an offer in the realm of nine figures suggests he’s not completely averse to testing the market.
The Braves are a year removed from a high-profile stalemate with former franchise icon Freddie Freeman. Those talks reportedly hit a stumbling block over the Braves’ reluctance to go six guaranteed years, and Freeman eventually signed with the Dodgers after Atlanta pivoted to land and extend Matt Olson. Freeman was also an Excel Sports Management client at the time, but Swanson has consistently maintained that back-and-forth would have no bearing on his relationship with the Braves or his agency.
Obviously, that Swanson declined an extension offer isn’t a guarantee he’ll depart. Heyman reports that proposal was made at some point during the season, and Anthopoulos confirmed after their season wrapped up the team still had interest in a long-term deal. It stands to reason they’ve remained in contact and will continue to do so throughout the offseason. The Braves are sure to extend Swanson a qualifying offer next week, which he’ll reject in search of a much longer and loftier commitment.
And how are those Baez/Story deals looking already? No place like home.
I’m sure Baez and Story are both content with the massive amounts of money they’re being showered in every pay period.
Money isn’t everything, sure it helps, but when you’re talking about the difference between 130 and 140 million. I’d think a player would rather take the 130 and be in a more comfortable environment than leave for an extra ten or twenty million…
At that point, you already have more money than you’ll ever need. I’d much rather be comfortable, be on a winning team, and stay where I’m beloved than move on to another team solely for the extra money.
Of course that is only if the offers are fairly close to one another. If it is a drastic difference, then I’d at least do my best to see what the max is my former team is willing to give me before leaving…
Correa is probably having some what ifs right about now, but that’s not to say he won’t be living his best life next year on a new team..
When have the Braves ever been w in 10 million of a major free agent or resigning one of their own lol ?
There are players that signed “team friendly” extensions before free agency, but can anyone name a free agent that did not take the highest offer? As a free agent I highly doubt he takes less than another offer to stay a Brave.
Several players take the smaller offer… as it’s always said, player in free agency have a choice. I think Charlie Morton is a name that jumps off the page as far as recent deals.
The players union will always put pressure on them to take the highest offer.
Chipper?
None of us have any idea, especially ever since AA took over. Dude runs the tightest ship I’ve ever seen.
The vast majority of his moves you never know about until they’re already pretty much done..
Either way though, I was referring more in general, and from a players pov
I can recall the past few offseasons that players have said no to the highest offers, a couple coming from the Mets and Phillies come to mind.
Per Jeff Passan Morton took the same money the Rays offered. What team offered more?
I believe that as well
Chipper Jones was never a free agent
Which players did the Mets and Phillies make offers to that were higher than the offers the players took from other teams?
Greg Maddux. Yankees offered him more, he liked the lifestyle in Atlanta and went there instead after his contract with the Cubs was up for less.
@WampumWalloper it’s a good question. It’s hard to know bc we don’t have all information… the best I can come up with is Steven Matz last offseason. Not sure he had an official offer from NYM, but Cohen definitely made it sound like he would’ve offered more if Matz had informed them of the STL offer… which is funny bc that’s the opposite of team friendly.
I am not aware of any players the Mets nor Phillies were higher bidders and lost out on. Certainly not the Mets, for since their new owner it has been “Pay First, ask (lux tax) Questions later. Middleton with the Phillies seems headed in that direction too. The Braves fans are spoiled by AA signing their newest stars to extensions early, which will keep their Core together. But like Freddy Freeman before, at some point the player’s real market value will come into play.
PS, I predict Freddy Freeman will make a farewell return to Atlanta 2028, much like Albert Pujols this past year in STL. The NL has the DH You heard it here first. He’ll retire a Brave.
He’s coming to Orioles
@Sid, that sounds like it could be right, they boo presumptive AL MVPs there too. Not a Braves fan but always was entertaining watching Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz in their prime.
Morton took 2/30 from Tampa originally
Last year with Freddie. The issue was the sixth year and Freddie’s agents not being transparent with him, not the money.
@Wampum, yes, I can name you a free agent that signed for less to play for the Braves. Greg Maddox. In 1993 the Yankees offered more than the Braves. Greg took less to play for them.
Morton had a 15 million offer from Atlanta and Tampa. He didn’t take less money to come to Atlanta.
Name one of them.
That was thirty years ago.
Harper. Machado.
Mlbtr article said Tampa offered 2/30. That is more than 1/15.
Since when is so damn much not enough?
My wife & I buy our clothes at the Salvation Army, excuse me for not giving a damn if he signs for $100 million or $140
There is no clear cut evidence, but it was rumored that the Red Sox offered Morton more, but he decided to stay with the Braves. Now, how much more, if we knew, would be an important factor, but we don’t. And most of what fans think about offers and decisions is pure conjecture.
Technically, Pence wasn’t a FA when he signed an extension with the Giants in 2012, after being a deadline acquisition. But he was just days away from free-agency, and most guys will want to test the market when they get within a year of free-agency.
Yea im not huge baseball mind but my thoughts are 100 is close to where they can go. Maybe now they take it to 120 max over the same years
JRam, he would have gotten way more. Also im sure they jays offered a deal that cle likes but was contingent on an extension
Cool story… I thought it was OBVIOUS I was referring to Morton signing with Tampa after Houston for 2 years 30 million… which was a rather large discount because he wanted to play close to home.
So no, he didn’t take less money to go to Atlanta, he did take less money to go to Tampa originally.
Also, it’s helpful to get your facts straight, the Eays declined Morton’s option for 15 million, then he signed with the Braves for that exact amount, again, taking more of a discount to sign with a team close to home and his choosing.
Andruw. Against the advice of his agent, Scott Boras. He wanted to stay in Atlanta.
Maybe get a better job?
Not talking about player perspective – good they got paid – more from the team perspective and if, 1-2 years in, already it’s regrettable. When your comps are bad deals, prolly not gonna smell rosy. But we’ll see.
Baez would have stunk wherever he played this year. Story would have put up better numbers in Colorado. As hard as it was to let Freeman walk it was the right move by the Braves. It will be interesting to see what happens with Swanson.
I was never a huge fan of Baez, all the talent in the world and is too selfish to harness it, but I thought he still put up a couple solid seasons before turning that contract into a disaster. Still hope I suppose to rebound after an awful year but he never appeared to me to be a guy who will work on his flaws vs being a “this is me, take it or leave it”
His contact is a disaster after one year? At 29? Give me a break.
Reading is fundamental…
“Turning that contract into a disaster”
You can’t read your own comment?
It was not the right move for the Braves. They are playing a lesser player the same money because he’s two years younger. They also gave up prime prospects to get him. The Braves could be back to back champs with Freeman.
Matt is 4+ years younger than Freddie. He underperformed in 2022 compared to his usual numbers.
You are correct about four years age difference but Olson’s stats this year are almost identical to his career averages. He is a good player but Freeman is one of the best in the game. I would take Freeman and Langiers and Pache over Olson all day every day.
Freeman is signed for 5 more years, Olson for 7 more, with an option for an 8th. It’s way too soon to know whether it was the right move for the Braves or not. A lot can happen over the next 5-7 years that would show it was the right decision.
Turns out the NL East has better pitching than the AL West! And as for Freeman, he got to play half of his games against the garbage teams that inhabit the NL West. Olson got to see deGrom, Scherzer, Nola, Wheeler, Alcantara, Lopez and all the other no name but really good Marlins pitchers. The Nats were awful, I’ll note that.
Olson didn’t underperform in the brief postseason batting 1.343 OPS (4 games) vs. PHI and more walks than strikeouts — better than even Freeman.
Sure, Freeman was clearly better throughout the season, but Olson needed a mulligan in 2022 getting out of Freeman’s shadow. Let’s hope 2023 will build on the momentum he created in the postseason, carrying the team.
AA will let him walk. Swanson is asking for closer to $30 million AAV than the $22 million AAV that Story got and more years.
Trae Turner is from Braves country as well & has consistently been an elite player for his entire career. Probably a better bet. Either would be great of course
Trae would be an excellent signing as well. The ONLY thing that worries me about Turner is the fact is game is made alot better due to his speed.
Plus, we’ve all seen what happens to the speed guys after so many years in the league, and Turner won’t exactly be a spring chicken for what will likely be his last couple of years on his new deal…
He’s not just a speed guy though. He’s a great hitter and smart base runner as well. He could also always move to the OF, which he has played in the past, if he loses a step at SS by the end of the deal.
Trea would be happy with Atlanta as a physical location but they are not offering him 325 million
Trea’s contract would be along the lines of 8 years $255m. Not $325m. Correa would be seeking that.
Except Correa isn’t as good as trea and baseball people know that
Turner is supposedly asking for 10 years and $350 million.
Except that’s not true and baseball people know that.
Correa and Turner over the last 6 years are pretty close at 27.7 to 25.9 WAR. With a huge margin on defense going to Correa.
Turner’s game on offense is based on speed much more so than Correa’s, which means his offense is much more likely to decline than Correa’s.
You would be hard pressed to find anyone in baseball that believes Turner will be a shortstop for long. He will move to 2B sooner than later.
Last season Correa had a 140 OPS+ compared to Turner at 121 OPS+.
Correa is a year younger than Turner.
Except nobody in baseball puts much stock in what a player did 6 years ago… last three years is the more relevant period, and turner is better in any measure you want over that time. He’s also historically stayed healthier more, so is more likely to get a more lucrative longer term deal. So you’re off on this one.
They are not going way over the salary tax to sign Turner.
Here is a bad contract swap. Ozuna and Rosario for Chris Sale straight up
Overrated as hell. Two seasons over 100 wRC+, none over 120. Low BB, high K profile, which never ages well. Defense never elite until this year (likely an anomaly). Already 29.
Wouldn’t give him more than 60 M over 4
There’s a reason you’re commenting on some obscure website about how you‘d spend someone else’s money!
You don’t know if he has stock in Liberty Media.
Dat part
It’s a low ball offer but I definitely get your point. I would think at least 85/5 with an opt out after the first, second and or third. First year 20 million.
As you said, high strike outs and low walks do not age well. Swanson has always been a quality defender but not a really elite guy until this year.
I really have no clue how ops plus gages offense, I understand the whole park adjusted factors but how is 62 extra base hits ever below league average last season? As a short stop, if you could pencil in 25 home runs and 30 doubles with a good to high batting average you certainly would take it regardless of the low walk rate but the think about Swanson is, you cannot. The track record doesn’t support it.
I personally think all the short stops are a tad overrated and none of them are worth 30 million plus aav… I wouldn’t complain if the Cubs signed any of them but if I was a gm it would be a tough pill to swallow. Personally, Bogaerts as a third baseman would be top pick.
The article literally says Swanson already turned down a $100m + offer during the season. Do you not read the posts before firing off your hot takes?
Spot on. We have all know about this kid since before he was a pro, goes 1 and gets paid, disappears more or less for a better part of a decade- then when he is financially liable for his performance- he tries his hardest. We have all seen how this story ends and we are all best served with him being a Brave for a very, very long time ! To bad Braves are WAY to smart for that.
He’s gotten better by they yr on offense, defense, and base running and he’s always performed well in the clutch. You also can’t replace his leadership qualities.
Beware the career year…
true. whoever signs judge would be crazy to think he’ll hit 60+ hr again. I’m sure he’ll put up strong numbers again but I doubt the fans – especially fans of a new team – would be happy unless he did have anything less than this season’s numbers.
Yes but recency effect in baseball FA is something the players and their agents take advantage of in the worst way, and it tends to come back and bite the clubs in the a$$ who overpaid for them out of desperation… and it will happens again every year
I think this is one of the more trickier situations that AA has been in doing these resigning. Dansby had a career year but the other options are just going to be too expensive for the Braves like Turner Correa Bogaerts
I have to think the front office saw this situation on the horizon while putting together the offer for Riley and weighed the futures of both players. And I’m hopeful thats the case and they committed to Riley. No matter what McGuirk says about having a top payroll consistently, it’s always tied to revenue so I doubt they are going to get the go ahead for what Dansby wants.
Someone will overpay for a good but not great player.
Cue the angels…
Angels pay for great but over the hill players like Pujols and Rendon.
I’m thinking Cubs, his fiance` is a pro women’s soccer star there. It make sense from both sides, they need a SS and I’ fairly certain Dansby may want to be closer to his girl.
the cubs are in a rebuild and haven’t shown any interest in signing anyone more expensive than low to middle salaries. last year they picked up Miley after he was released by the Reds, and Stroman, who was surplus to the Mets improved rotation. Stroman worked out for the most part but the cubs are still trying to figure it out with minor leaguers along with players dumped from other teams. And I don’t understand why they let Robertson go after he posted a sub-3.00 ERA.
Ok, who is going to step in and hold down the SS position for a team that is a window to win now? People talked the same about Chipper when Andruw was up for a contract,AA sign Dansby and keep the infield intact. The same drama will come up with Ozzie in a couple of yrs.
That’s the hard part. The options are either much more expensive (other three guys on the market), not very good (Iglesias or Andrus), or not ready (random single A guy or whomever the best SS in their system is). They’d probably try to pull the Olson rabbit out of the hat again and go on the trade market, but who’s got a good SS for sale?
Grissom came through the system as a shortstop. He doesn’t have Dansby’s defense but it’s not like Swanson was elite coming up. There was a legitimate argument about who moved to 2B, Swanson or Albies. Give Grissom a spring with Wash and he’ll be fine.
Albies only ended up at 2B because of a freak elbow injury on a throw while in the minors. He was a SS, and Dansby played mainly 2B at Vanderbilt.
DeJong
Sucks. There, I finished it for you.
Someone else suggested it, but Amed Rosario could be a candidate. CLE is sold on Gimenez and he’s got 1 year until FA coming off a career year of 4.1 bWAR. You could make an argument that his numbers would be better in Truist, while playing solid D. With Ozzie coming back, you wouldn’t really need Amed at the top of the lineup, like Dansby was most of 2022, filling in for Acuna/Ozzie atop the order.
Adding to this Rosario suggestion, SS Cal Conley (23 y/o) is lighting up AFL right now and is moving quickly through the system, similar to Michael Harris II’s ascension. Could they have a 1-year bridge with Conley taking over at 24 y/o in 2024? Not saying that’s ideal considering how much money they’re pouring into the team and the expectations, but unlike Freeman/Olson 1B scenario – there are more internal options at SS this time around.
The Braves have zero internal options at SS. Conley was only a league average hitter at low and high A ball this past season. His defense is so bad that the most optimistic projections for him are as a “possible” Ml utility player. Grissom’s defense is no better than Conley’s. If the Braves don’t trade him this winter, they’d better move him to left field. Best place to hide his glove, but his bat probably won’t play there. Shewmake’s the best defender of the “internal options at SS,” and he’s a weaker bat than Grissom. Less than zero chance that Shewmake gets exposed to the Rule 5 draft. Too bad they can’t meld Conley’s bat w/Shewmake’s defense. No choice for the organization other than a trade or signing of one of the big 4 FA’s. The only “internal options at SS” are a couple of recent ifa signs that are 5 years away from contributing—if ever.
It would likely be Vaughn Grissom, and he’s already had some solid results at the ML level.
He and Michael Harris played a significant role in the Braves ultimately catching and surpassing the Mets. Heck, at one point, the Braves were starting Robinson Cano at 2B…lol
Grissom is a SS first and foremost though. You won’t mistake him for a GG, but he can easily get the job done pretty well.
Keep Swanson in the A! Clubhouse culture means something.
This wouldn’t have been a career year if not for basically three seasons being hurt with wrist injuries and trying to play through it.
Dansby has actually shown all-around offensive and defensive progress every season he’s played in when he’s been completely healthy.
His problem has been trying to play through too many wrist injuries which have caused pro-longed slumps in parts of three of his seasons..
If you don’t think wrist injuries negatively impact a hitters performance then you’re GREATLY mistaken. Wrist injuries, especially those not fully healed, will sap a players power. Plus, it will cause them to try and overcompensate which will alter their mechanics, not to mention it will cause them to overswing. Then, once they start struggling they will typically begin to press, causing them to start chasing pitches out of the zone they’d normally step on and as a whole become overly aggressive leading to a bunch of swinging strikeouts and infield flyouts..
We have recently witnessed this happen to Judge a season ago, Freeman a couple years back to end the season, and Dansby for multiple seasons among I’m sure what amounts to several others. It can negatively impact even the best of hitters, and we watched it sap the power of two of the game’s best and most prolific bats.
Dansby never openly complained about his wrist issues, and stupidly tried to play through it…So, knowing that, it really makes for a tougher read on him, because each time before he got hurt he was seemingly improving..
It’s a tough call, because he’s also a team leader, and the Braves already lost their biggest leader to free agency last season. Plus, Dansby is absolutely a fan favorite, especially with the female fans..lol
All I know is that by now AA has earned my trust, so I’m sure he has a plan and a couple backup plans as well. I’m just glad I’m not the one who has to make that decision, especially if there’s a team that’ll offer him a decent sum more
So he’s overrated and injury prone. Got it ! If y’all think that’s a recipe for the Braves to open their piggy bank up – God bless ya !
“It will sap a player’s power…overcompensate which will alter their mechanics and cause them to overswing…then they’ll start struggling and typically start to press and start swinging at pitches out of the zone…and become overly aggressive leading to a bunch of swinging strikeouts…” Then his defense will suffer. He’ll become disoriented and run out to right field instead of short. That will cause him to miss the team bus to the airport. They’ll finally find him sitting in the stands with his girlfriend watching a game at Wrigley field and then…AAAAAHH! Don’t get ahead of yourself, richardc.
Wrist injuries plague hitters far longer than their actual “recovery” cycle takes to get them back out on the field.
@AgentF You’re absolutely correct.
At no point am I “getting ahead of myself.”
If you think anything I said isn’t possible, if not very likely, then clearly you’ve never played baseball nor know what all goes into the mechanics of swinging a bat.
Dansby’s progress was significantly hampered due to playing through lingering wrist issues multiple seasons, that’s not an opinion, it’s a fact.
Also, I highly doubt they would come out with a brand new bat design that has an altered axe handle, if wrist injuries weren’t a problem for some hitters and if it didn’t impact a player’s abilities…
Once a player starts to slump, sometimes they can overcompensate, and it only exacerbates the problem. Then, there’s a snowball effect, it isn’t that difficult of a concept to understand.
Then again, maybe you are right. I’m probably getting ahead of myself. After all, what is common sense to some isn’t always so common to others…
Where’s the noob hoopin and hollerin about trading Acuna to resign Swanson ?? He not up yet ??
Why’re you conjuring that waste of space?
Being a league average or better hitter and fielder at SS and only missing 2 games in the last 3 years is very valuable. He’s not as good as the other 3 but he’s definitely more valuable than Baez
He’s younger than Turner, less injury prone than Correa, and fields dramatically better than Bogaerts. A case can be made he’s the best option of the three. There’s no such thing as a guarantee but I think they should resign him. His looks are a bonus, not the main event 🙂
that’s how I would assemble my team. only good looking players, please. no Ugo’s need apply.
Trade Ian Anderson to Yankees for Peraza & there is your replacement
Also would look into trading Max Fried he got a year left & I don’t see him re-signing.
With pitching the way it is I think AA can get a nice haul back & there is some depth in SP. Although much of that depth is unproven.
Not enough for Peraza.
Fried has two years.
Maybe instead of Anderson trade Fried to the Yankees for a package of Peraza & Schmidt plus
Hope Anderson can recover from last year & hopevto find a taker for Ordorizzi to clear some salary and really make a push for DeGrom
The only problem is that the Yankees will not trade Peraza. Cashman has said he is untouchable and refused to discuss him in trades. His play on defense this year only solidified that sentiment, imho.
Volpe is their future at SS & 2 years of Fried is valuable
Put Fried with Cole, Severino & Cortes thats the best rotation in AL East and it’s affordable
Gotta give something to get something and you would be getting a 2nd Ace.
It would be more than Peraza &’Schmidt too
Yeah, I know that’s the current thinking but I don’t know if he will stay there. Volpe doesn’t have a good arm so there are scouts internally and externally that believe he will go to second base.
Trust me, I’d love to get one of those pitchers from ATL.
Am I the only one that is worried about how DeGrom pitched coming off of injury?
His return was not what the Mets were hoping for, 4.50 era against some pretty bad offenses at that. So many fan bases are lining up to pay him 3/135 when he’s pitched something like 26 games in the past two years and pitched like a back end of the rotation starter since he returned. If I’m the Mets, I’d welcome the opt out and look to sign Rodon for significantly less
Although I think it’s too early to be concerned about deGrom, I agree with you on Rodon.
Re: deGrom, control is that last thing to return after surgery. His velo was up and his arm had a lot of bullets at or near 100MPH.
I think many teams will be willing to take a risk with him, but I’m not sure they will want to go above $35MM, unless he returns to the Mets.
You don’t trade away your Ace during your prime window for success…
Max is getting resigned, it’s just a matter of time…..(I hope) lol
Give Max the savings from Morton being gone after next season, and then work on resigning Wright…If only it were that simple..I’d just really hate to lose Max.
The only way I would be comfortable trading Max away is if Soroka comes back healthy, Tarnok looks like a future stud, and if at least two of their three young, early 2022 draftees hit the ground running, showing sustainable signs of success by his last season…
Which the possibility of A,B,and C all happening and working in their favor are slim to none..lol
I would have to think that 25/150 would be the starting point for Swanson, he is only 29 and in his prime. A six year contract takes him to 35. AA seems to be able to stick to his guns when it comes to contracts. He has signed players early before their prime to great team friendly contracts.. But Swanson seems like a perfect fit in Atlanta, but so was Freddy Freeman. You can make a case that he should have never let him go. There are other options out there who are comparable or better than Swanson with Turner, Correa, and Boegerts. All will cost more money than Dansby.
Just resign the dude! Atlanta is not LA or NY too much drama there. Speaking directly to Dansby Swanson, Truist and Atlanta loves you here. Make millions and be content where you are. Stay home and compete for championships with the hometown team. Chipper warned Freddie of the BS. Stay home Dansby.
How much are you willing to spend?
Looks obvious A likes Dansby. They made him an offer, and I betcha in their minds, based on analytics. If Dansby takes it, he takes it. If not, A has shown in recent history they are not afraid to move on.
Going young at SS in MLB seems to be in vogue. See the two teams in the world series. Stott and Pena. And in Baltimore, the Field Bible winner, Mateo. It’s a real thing.
Mateo is like 27 or 28 isn’t he?
@SidB, geez, you are right and Stott and Pena are older than I thought as well. Maybe should have said, “going cheaper” talent route. Hmmm. Cheers!
I think he likes him at a certian price. Not saying Dansby dosent deserve to get paid, but the Braves cant afford to pay everyone.
C Yards Jeff;
MLB position players run in cycles….
Today there is a shortage of quality SS’s, C’s, and CF’s (the 3 most important defensive positions).
Many teams have been drafting / signing multiple young SS’s and developing them in the minors. The SS’s getting the outrageous money last year and probably this year will stick out as radically overpaid within 2 years as a glut of quality young controlled SS’s hit MLB.
I keep using Amad Roserio as an example – do you want a SS making $30m-plus on a multi year contract or Rosario @ $9m? Rosario may not be as good, but he’ll still play a quality SS for a team and hit decently (actually he hits better then a few of those guys). That’s an awful lot of money that can be spent elsewhere to upgrade a roster.
Cheers to you too Jeff!
@Samuel; position players run in cycles. Wow. Did not know this, or better put, not nearly up to speed on the rhythm and flow of position player performance. Cool stuff!
And to your point, Lord knows, my Os have a stockpile of quality SSs at all levels. This is gonna get interesting.
Don’t know much about Amad R. I’m on it. Thanks.
Dansby has the same agent as Freeman……yea he’s gone. Move Albies to SS and go after Adam frazier? Need another LH bat(or two) somewhere. Save that money and fix the LF situation.
Easy to think that, but someone said that Freddie gave Dansby advice to be more involved with his negotiations. Considering he’s been discussing an extension during the home team’s exclusive window, it paints a rosier picture. That being said, ATL doesn’t entertain agents that try and use them to drive the price up — welcome Matt.
I think the Baez & Story comps are bad ones look at each player the 4 years before they went into FA.
Baez- AS, AS , MVP-2, SS, GG, OPS+ 129,118, 59, 117
Story- AS MVP-8 SS, AS MVP-12 SS, MVP-11,
OPS+ 127,120,120, 102
Swanson- MVP-18, AS GG
OPS+ 89, 111, 99, 115.
They aren’t really close to the same type of players. So let’s stop with the comparison that he should get the same contracts, my offer is 5/115 and value wise his defense will only decrease as he ages and that has been a large part of his WAR valuation. Just my $0.02
FWIW, Milwaukee might entertain offers for Adames, who had a solid defensive season with 30 homers, altho his OBP is certainly a concern. He has 2 more years of control and his arb # getting near 10MM might be too much for the Brew Crew despite Willy being such a strong leader & clubhouse presence.
If money is tight, they can always trade Acuna and the baggage he carries.
Swanson’s career numbers have been very up and down, but serviceable overall. His peak value was obviously this year- perfect timing- but he’s paced for similar enough WAR in a couple other seasons where he didn’t play a full season.
If he can stay healthy I think he can maintain close to his 2022 production for another 2-4 years and should be paid accordingly over that period, but after that should be paid for his median production and his median ability to stay healthy and on the field.
He’s a median 3.34 WAR player and I think that’s what they can expect from him overall on a long term deal of 5+ years.
That’d be around 3 years/$90M for his most recent performance, 3 years/$60M for his future performance and maybe 1 year/$15M tacked on to get him to “retirement” and keep him a Brave for life.
Or just $23.575M annually across 7 years.
7 years/$165.025M seems extremely fair and do-able.
The problem is Frank Lindor got 10 yrs / 341M with the Mets and Corey Seager got 10 yrs / 335M with the Rangers.
You could say that Swanson is the best player at the position and you’d have an argument. Id say it’s Trea Turner, but Swanson is right there, so is Carlos Correa. But, as you can see, the position premium seems to be less and less of a factor with so many of baseball’s best up and coming players at SS —-
Finding a great 3B, a great CF, a great C, a SP, even a 1B, seems to be more difficult than finding a great SS. While one team may put a premium on the position, other teams may take a different view which makes it difficult to justify the big deal in a season which teams who value SS higher are no longer in the market, this potentially depresses the market.
Hard to let a player like Swanson walk, hard to pay him in line with the best at the position, it’s a tough spot to be in for the Braves and for Swanson.
What should be realized is that Lindor and Seager’s deals are outliers in a way.
But the thing is, if the Braves offered $100M, that’s a low ball offer even from the Braves, a very budget conscious club. They tend to get guys for $1-9M AAV below market value, so if Swanson might be worth $35M at top dollar it’s not surprising they’d like him to take less than $25M AAV and he wants whatever he can get, so the Braves want him for 5 or 6 at $100M and he’d want $125-$140M for the same period, plus a raise on guys like Story and Baez.
Swanson is not even in the conversation.
I’d disagree, you win the Gold Glove it says you are one of the best in the league defensively, you hit .280 / .330 with 25 HRs, 100 RBIs and 20 SBs and your amongst the best offensively.
Bogearts is a better hitter, Turner is more consistent offensively, Correa, Tatis Jr., Seager, a healthy Wander Franco, but none of them outside of maybe Tatis in ’21 are putting up dramatically superior numbers at the plate. His numbers are right in line with Lindor’s.
Seager, Tatis Jr. Bogearts, Correa are all physically bigger than Swanson, probably have higher ceilings offensively, and I think Trea Turner has been the best offensively over his career, but if Swanson keeps the glove work where it’s at and hits .280 25hrs / 20 SBs over the span of a five or six year deal, he’s as good.of a player to roster as any of the top shortstops in the league. The important part is getting him to see that Wander Franco’s deal is more in line with what all of these players
should be making and that Corey Seager and Frankie Lindor ate the whole cake.
Swanson isn’t even in the conversation for best shortstop. He’s the 4th best one available this offseason.
Over the past 3 full seasons + 2020 he is 14th and 15th in wRC+ and OPS+. About league average.
He is 11th in WAR and I didn’t include Semien because he moved to 2B in 2021. Tatis who missed all of 2022 has a higher WAR than Swanson.
On defense he’s 11th and 6th in DRS and OAA.
Swanson is a good shortstop. He is not one of the best.
I’d rank the FA SS Trea Turner, Swanson, Correa, Bogearts
I could see a front loaded 5 year deal with a vesting option 6th year and a team-option 7th year, and a couple of opt-outs in the middle.
Braves don’t do either of those things. Front load or optouts
Just because they haven’t it doesn’t mean they can’t or won’t.
I know that Dansby will get more than Shelby Miller next year!
The Braves may even be able to pick up Shelby for the pen. That would be very ironic—I wish him well and hope Miller does well.
It’s a shame that he has to be compared to Baez and Story. Both players had obvious red flags, were overrated, signed to albatross contracts, and performed well below their salary worth. Not saying Swanson comes with similar red flags but more than likely he’ll be way overpaid and not play up to expectations.
I hear how people feel he will not be worth his contract. From a window of contention however—I think he will be worth whatever his contract is for the next 4 years. So you have to go 5/6 fine. The window is win now and he is the best ‘priced’ SS of the bunch—so yeah. The devil you know.
So at 25M AAV, you’re ok giving him an additional 2 years knowing full well he won’t be worth it? And what if those first 4 aren’t anything like his career year at 25M per? Guy doesn’t hit above average consistently to warrant that kind of money. We got rid of Simmons (who was locked into a decent deal at the time) for the same reasons.
Again, sign Dansby and get on with the offseason. Defense up the middle is important, Swanson wants to be in A. Keep him here? Stop with all the blah, blah,. Freddie left last year and regretted it. Stay at Truist with Braves Country and let’s dominate! Braves2023
Braves Country! We show up and show out! Keep Dansby with a tomahawk across his chest!