In a market thin on center field help, Brandon Nimmo has naturally drawn a lot of interest on the free agent market. Many of baseball’s bigger spenders have been linked to the former Mets standout, but according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the low-payroll Rays are also a rather surprising suitor for Nimmo’s services.
MLBTR projected Nimmo for a five-year, $110MM deal this winter, which would represent far and away the largest contract the Rays have even given to a free agent. It would also represent the franchise’s second-largest expenditure on any contract, behind only Wander Franco’s 11-year, $182MM extension. Since Nimmo rejected the Mets’ qualifying offer, Tampa Bay would also have to give up their third-highest pick in the 2023 draft as compensation for signing the outfielder — no small penalty for a club that relies on building from within.
In short, it would count as a real stunner if the Rays won the bidding for one of the winter’s most sought-after free agents. However, it is worth noting that we’re only about a year removed from the Rays’ reported offer to Freddie Freeman, another big-ticket name on the open market. Between the Freeman offer and the Franco extension, there have been some hints out of Tampa Bay that the Rays are prepared to stretch their budget (by their standards) in order to capture that elusive championship. The Rays have reached the postseason in each of the last four years and made it as far as the World Series in 2020, but fell short to the Dodgers in six games.
Assuming Nimmo did sign for around $22MM in average annual value, such a deal would take Tampa Bay’s payroll into a new stratosphere, though the team has already broken some of their own financial benchmarks. As per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Rays’ Opening Day payroll in 2022 was just shy of $83.9MM, a new club record. Roster Resource projects Tampa for a 2023 payroll of roughly $67.7MM, and that number includes the projected salaries of a still-large class of arbitration-eligible players.
The Rays have already parted ways with some arb-eligibles (i.e. Ji-Man Choi, Ryan Yarbrough) to save some dollars, and any number of other creative trades could still be possible to further shed payroll. Tampa could continue to shop more members of their arbitration class, or the team could look into moving players on guaranteed contracts. Franco isn’t going anywhere, but any of Manuel Margot, Brooks Raley, Tyler Glasnow, or even Brandon Lowe could be plausible trade chips.
Moving an established player to bring in a more expensive player like Nimmo would be an uncharacteristic move for the Rays, yet it could make sense in this circumstance. Nimmo would essentially be Margot’s replacement in the outfield, and Raley or Glasnow could be replaced by one of the many young arms from Tampa’s seemingly endless pitching pipeline. The Rays already did well without Lowe for much of the 2022 season, as Lowe played in only 65 games due to ongoing back problems. If Lowe was traded, the Rays could rely on some combination of Taylor Walls, Isaac Paredes, Jonathan Aranda, or Vidal Brujan at second base, as they did last season. Plus, top prospect Curtis Mead is waiting in the wings for his Major League debut.
The Rays relied on their pitching and defense to win 86 games and claim a Wild Card berth last season, but Nimmo’s bat would greatly help a lackluster offense. Nimmo hit .274/.367/.433 with 16 home runs over 673 plate appearances last season, which translated to a 134 wRC+ and 5.4 fWAR. No Rays position player in 2022 had a higher fWAR than Yandy Diaz’s 3.8 number, and only Diaz (146) had a better wRC+. The left-handed hitting Nimmo even helps from a lineup balance perspective, since Tampa’s lineup is mostly right-handed.
An argument can be made that if the Rays were going to splurge on a player, it should be for someone without Nimmo’s checkered injury history. There is some irony in Tampa Bay pursuing an oft-injured center fielder just as Kevin Kiermaier is finally off the team’s books. Kiermaier’s six-year, $53.5MM extension was also one of the larger deals in Rays history, and while Kiermaier was only rarely in Nimmo’s league as a hitter, Kiermaier was one of the league’s best fielders at any position when he was healthy enough to stay on the field. The public metrics are a little more mixed on Nimmo’s work in center field, though Tampa could use him in any of the three outfield positions, since Jose Siri is on hand to play center.
Tampa is not where you’ll be Finding Nimmo
Yep, you’re right Manny; it’s cute they actually typed out the headline though, isn’t it!
Almost like going to lunch with that friend who never pays, but tells you he’s got your lunch today….only to find out, you guys order and Ol’ Stu forgot his wallet. But he was serious, and he will definitely get you next time.
I’m sure you’re referring to dollars, but he won’t be a Ray because they need home runs more than anything else.
Lol this Headline as if Scott Boras will even take Rays calls.
You’re correct. The Rays play in St. Perersburg
White Sox will surprise here!!
Go Sox from a long time South Sider Lol
Well JR doesn’t want the lowly Cubs to become the favorite team in town!
RIP Nimmo.
Franco got an 11 year deal??!?!?!?!??
Yup. Did you get tacos?
Nooo unfortunately. Settled for some string cheese.
Dump that onto a saltine cracker with some Slim Jim bits and you’re good to go!
String cheese and some turkey pepperoni go well together for a late night snack. Throw in a Ritz cracker and it’s a meal!
@yankee. With this inflation that’s about the way to go. I work in supply chain in the food business and it seems people have cute back on one of the few things you can actually cut and that is food.
Low cost move but they already regetting it.
Yeah, they bought out his pre-arb and arb years then added the biggest extension they believe they could afford. It sounds like he took the sure thing instead of waiting to see what’s behind door #2.
Trumbo – there is a big difference between buying out pre-arbitration, and arbitration years, and signing a free agent contract!
Well of course man I get that. 11 year deals don’t get handed out every day though! Especially to such a young pup. I think it’s cool. I must have known about it when he signed but forgot.
5/110 Mil? There is No Way
He’ll get it. Maybe not the 5 years but the money.
4 years, 6 or 7 years 110 Mil ?
I thought the same. He’s not getting $22M per, otherwise the Mets would’ve locked him up long before. Toss in his history of injuries and I’d say he’s in the $16-18M pet for 4 years. He’s serviceable, just don’t believe he’s someone that puts a team over and his defense is eh with a weak arm.
In today’s market heay get ir.
Over the past 3 years only 1 CF has more fWAR than Nimmo, and that’s if you want to include Judge as a CF, then it’s none. Only 2 have a better wRC+, Judge and Julio Rodriguez. Only one, Judge again, has a better OBP. His slg% is low, but his home ballpark has not helped with that, his home slg% over that span is .424 compared to .460 on the road. Also, the last two seasons his defense and arm have been fine. 89th percentile for outs above average and 58th percentile for arm strength in 2021. 2022 he was 90th percentile in OAA and 72nd in arm strength.
His wOBA is 18th in all qualified hitters over last three years, so he’ll get paid. He worked hard to improve his CF defense, which he prob can’t sustain long, but he should play well when in corner OF in a couple of years. Watching him regularly, he’s not what you’d envision an impact player to be, but as a leadoff hitter he gets on base and will get some XBH.
“Mets would’ve locked him up long before” and “toss in his history of injuries” is pretty much saying the same thing and aren’t separate. It’s WHY they didn’t. His work when healthy is worth it. I could see someone going 4 years $20 mil but I still wouldn’t want the Braves to do it.
67.7 million projected payroll with this current group, including arbitration eligible players for the 2023 season. Unbelievable job they do over there in Tampa. Hands down one of the best ran organizations in baseball, if not the absolute best with the payroll restrictions.
They’ve fallen in love with themselves too, I’m afraid. It causes them to make the same mistakes over and over again.
and zero rings
Ain’t that tough enough?
I’m interested in watching Detriot Tiger games, as much as the Rays are interested in spending over 100 milion on Brandon Nimmo
Oh man I’m lickin’ my chops, would love to see Brandon Lowe playing second base for the Seattle Mariners, it’s almost too perfect to comprehend.
Don’t pay position players with chronic bad backs, and never make “sure thing” trades with the Rays. Two of the first rules of baseball.
I didn’t delve into the exact nature of the injuries Lowe , but yeah, yikes if it’s a back issue. Then maybe Ryan McMahon from the Rockies, another lefty with pop to play 2nd Base? HEY The Mariners did alright in the trade with Tampa for Diego Castillo in exchange for JT Chagrois lol.
Iggy: What are your thoughts on Gleyber Torres for 2B there? Are you pro-Torres or anti-Torres? And whom do you see as a viable return?
Hey Clipper, you know, I should probably be more generous towards Gleyber than I have been. He would be a solidly decent addition to the ball club. But his acquisition would close the door on obtaining one of the Big 4 shortstops, for all intents and purposes. And I was being greedy with delusions of signing Correa or some hotshot. So I should be totally fine with an upgrade to Gleyber, and the more I look at the alternatives (Brandon Lowe, Tim Anderson, Ryan McMahon) , Gleyber makes just as much sense…sorry for the long answer lol
He’s more of a 4/$70mm with some option years. If he can stay healthy, he’s good for close to 100 runs scored, which is extremely valuable, but can he still get around the bases like that, plus play CF and his body hold up at age 34/45? As far as the Rays, they should spend some money this off season, they too got $120mm in revenue sharing from national tv contracts this year.
Yes, but payroll is only one expense. Teams have other bills to pay as well.
This. The Rays have essentially no local TV money, and one of the lowest gates in the game. The money they get from MLB (national TV and streaming, which isn’t anywhere near $120m for the record, and revenue sharing) is most of their budget. Player salaries are typically about 50% of a team’s gross revenue.
https://dodgerblue.com/mlb-teams-receive-at-least-100-million-annually-from-tv-rights-contracts/2022/02/12/amp/
Revenue sharing and revenue from national TV contracts are two different things.
Nimmo has the 6th highest OBP among qualified hitters since the start of the 2020 season.
The 5 hitters ahead of him: 1. Soto 2. Freeman 3 Harper 4 Judge 5 Goldschmidt.
Nimmo gonna get paid and it aint gonna be the Rays paying him.
Did you match up games played? Nimmo finally appeared in 100+ games in a season for only the second time in his career. $20+M for someone to walk is a bit excessive. He didn’t win anything for the Mets, which is why they’re not going out of their way to get him off the market. He’s decent, but not $20M per.
And I’m interested in dating Margot Robbie, but I’m guessing that’s not happening as well.
Any team needing a CF is “interested” in Nimmo.
@maxorange33; agreed. That said, the Rays do value defense especially, IMO, up the middle. KK seems on the decline physically. They definitely need an upgrade? With that, I do believe the Rays are sincerely interested here. Being an Os fan, I hope this doesn’t happen!
How much value does Cedric have right now?
@MTinB; Cedric? If I were Elias and company there are 2 players to extend and extend now. Adley R and Cedric M. The game is played up the middle. Two plus defenders and on offense neither strikes out all that much. Get it done!
Certainly so w Adley. Cedric is a great talent but his arm is weak and they have guys coming up quickly in the system. Will be interesting to watch what Elias does.
Exciting times indeed. To me, owner John Angelos is the key. Heard him interviewed the other day on 105.7. Refreshing to hear an owner disclose that he removes himself from the baseball decision making. Finally an owner who reminds me of Gerald Hoffberger’s style of ownership since, well, Gerald Hoffberger (O’s owner 1964 to 79).
Oh, agree to disagree on Cedric. Cheers!
Jon Heyman might be a baseball agent’s best friend.
What a popular guy.
They can’t afford him.
Has anyone told Tampa Bay it’d be 5/$110M, not 5/$110? No way they shell out that much. I’ll believe the White Sox shell out that much before I’ll believe Tampa Bay.
Someone’s gonna get five years of mediocre.
High OBP guy with a bit of pop. Injury-prone. In 7 seasons has only reached 400+ ABs twice. This is not a 5/$110m guy. This is a 3/$45m guy, with a couple of option years. He’ll get more than that, of course, but someone will have to grossly overpay to get him.
That is the nature of free agency. 29 other teams didn’t think the player was worth that much.
And I have interest in Jennifer Aniston. I don’t see that in headlines.
BobGibsonFan,
We share common interests. Good luck with that and I hope you at least get to 1st Base LOL
The only expansion team from the last few decades that I could see Nimmo joining is the Colorado Rockies since his family lives about an hour or two away in Cheyenne, WY.
I see Nimmo coming close to but not quite 5/110. Maybe 4/75 with an option for 5th yr at $20MM with a $5MM buyout. Still hoping cubs snag him with the plan to move him to LF when Happ leaves and one of the hyped prospects takes over CF.
This rumor leads me to believe the new Rays ballpark is moving right along in the planing process. Luxury apartments, upscale dining and shopping, more family friendly activities around the stadium should increase ticket sales, help Tampa move from being a bottom dwelling revenue team to more of a middle of the pack.
Right. Either the club anticipates getting a lot more revenue over the next few years in FL, or ownership is preparing to move. Of course, neither is likely to happen during Nimmo contract, so …
Guys don’t make me point at Pete….. he gets onnnnn baseeee. On a serious note it’s funny ever since the rays owner started being sued by the minority owners they seem much more willing to expand the payroll. They made the biggest offer to freeman and expressed serious interest in other big name guys
Rutherford B Crazy
I don’t see Glasnow (around $5mil) or B. Lowe going anywhere in 2023 (2024 is a different story tho). I would prefer going 4 years at $28 million per with a signing bonus ($10 million?).
Rays really need a power hitter and would be better off taking a flyer on Conforto, Brandon Drury would be a nice addition to the Rays, who in my opinion are the favorites to win the AL East no matter what the Yanks do in FA.
AL East is definitely a much more competitive division. Choi really catered in the 2nd half, Peralta didn’t give them any pop & losing B. Lowe for the rest of the season hurt. B. Drury I can see the Rays kicking the tires on.
So based on the responses from Rays fans here, the Rays value CF defense and need power production while spending as little as possible. Nimmo has limited power and his defense is acceptable depending on metrics, but not exactly great and he’s possibly going to cost a fair bit in both money and years.
To me, Cody Bellinger is the guy that checks off all the boxes for the Rays. Plays great CF defense (compared to Nimmo), Generally is seen as having more power, even with his reduced offensive output in recent years, and should be cheaper on a 1 year deal.
Signing Bellinger for 1 year above $8 million for the Rays is risky & the Rays should pass if it goes that high (or higher). $8 million or less on a “bounce back” should be the range for any small market team.
Nimmo at $15-$17.5 million per x 4 years
$20 million option/around $3 million buyout
With a $10 million signing bonus should be the initial offer from the Rays.
Why make an offer if it’s not even close to a realistic offer?
Finally figured out how MLB can have spring training in FL but no one shows up to actually MLB games there….
The real games don’t start until 7 pm but the old people are in bed by 6 pm and the fugitives don’t want to show up anywhere law enforcement might be present.
And alligators don’t buy tickets.
Im in Florida now, if they moved the Rays stadium out of St. Pete Id be bumming around all winter waiting for opening day, but I dread St. Pete, this sentiment likely is shared by most fans in the area
Sorry Rays fans, but I’m calling bullsht. The only headline that would be more outrageous would be to read that Oakland was interested in Nimmo. Tampa rarely wants to pay for it’s own players they drafted and developed. You have no shot at that franchise jumping into the free agent pool on a guy who’s going to fetch as much as or more than they’re paying their prized shortstop. Not. Gonna. Happen.
The Rays prefer to stay away from the top of the market/bidding. All those high priced FA contracts carry higher risk for smaller market teams & most do not work out well for the signing club over time.
They offered Freeman 180 million. So you don’t know what you are talking about. That said I don’t think they will go 100 million on Nimmo. 4-70 million is as high as they would, or should go. And someone will out bid (overpay) for him
Freeman offer was an outlier, a one-time thing. Did they outbid anyone?
Let’s not act like that is normal for them. These posts follow historical experiences. Enough of the “you don’t know what you’re talking about”…because they do.
Yes it was an outlier, but it happened , so to say they don’t do it is untrue. And I think “if” they could get Nimmo for 4-70,(what he is worth) they would do it.but as I said someone will outbid (over pay )for him.
I feel like the $180 million offer to Freeman was a smokescreen to pacify the other owners that continue to threaten legal action. The Rays likely knew full well if it came down to choosing Truist Park, Dodgers Stadium, or Tropicana Field Freeman was not choosing Tropicana Field
Maybe yes, maybe no, but you have NO idea as to their intent unless you were there. And why was there ” no” chance he played for Rays? Equal chance of going to playoffs, less pressure, no state income tax, ect.. Enjoy last place Rsox.
I never said “no chance” but if we are being realistic since it came down to staying in Atlanta, going to Los Angeles, or Going to Tampa to play in a concrete igloo the igloo would (and ultimately did) lose. And Atlanta and LA are not exactly pressure cookers when it comes to their sports teams. It’s not like New York, Philadelphia, or Boston.
Case in point; the Lakers (LA’s only other real important team as far as the fans are concerned) are off to one of the worst starts in franchise history and the headlines don’t reflect the struggles, instead they point out how good of a game Anthony Davis had even if they lose
Igloos feel great in summer heat.
This is my offer to Cody Bellinger if I’m a smart market team (Offense has been non existent lately)…..
1 year $8 million base salary.
25+HRs- $8 million incentive
35+HRs- $8 million incentive
If he has another MVP season he makes $24 million (much more than his QO was).
If he wants a much higher base (way above $10 million) salary the small market team should pass on signing him.
So you’re going to essentially overpay for what you hope will be a Christian Walker? Guy who hit 36 HR at 1B for ARZ playing incredible defense, despite a .242 AVG (and .804 OPS). Problem with Belli is that he’s trying to hit a HR every swing with an ailing shoulder, creating massive holes causing his issues, and most likely messing with his plate discipline because he’s chasing/pressing more. A short-term incentive-laden deal tied to his HR would only exacerbate that, imho. You’ll see more of the same depending on his shoulder health.
Incentives based on counting performance stats are against the CBA. Thats why it is always PAs, Games started, relief appearances, etc. and not HR/hits/strikeouts, etc
Glas and Lowe are not going anywhere. You think the Rays paid Glas’ arb last year for a few appearances?
I hope not, unless they get their Sox blown off for Glasnow, and Rays never sell low, so Lowe is going nowhere yet.
The Rays are pragmatic. They will trade anyone when the return is beneficial. They paid Glasnow $5MM last year. That’s in the past and will have no bearing on what they do moving forward. That salary was the holding fee required to get him to provide value, either on the field or by getting him to the trading range when he’s healthy so they can trade him for other needs. They’re in that trading range now. They’re scheduled to pay him another $5MM in 2023 and then $25MM in 2024. You know they’re not paying him $25MM in 2024 just so he can leave, and the return value on him will be lower if they wait until next offseason. Short of a low-cost contract extension, which isn’t happening, they will likely trade Glasnow some point prior to the July 2023 trade deadline.
Lowe is much less likely to be traded since he’s under contract for up to four more seasons if they take his two options post 2024. Reasonably priced contract even at the outer end of the deal. That said, he does have some back issues, they began limiting him against lefty pitching against which his career OPS is over 100 points lower, and his power numbers prior to 2022 were likely helped by the juiced ball that’s gone away. He’s more of a bat-first 2B’man, so the limitation on shifts could really expose him defensively, in fact, likely will. He can play multiple positions, so I don’t expect him to be traded simply because he’s coming off a down season, but they’ll listen. They’re the Rays.
Difficult to see a realistic scenario where Nimmo is on the Rays.
Leftovers for lunch today. Tomorrow too!
The Rays will need to add someone to at least share CF with Siri but it’s not going to be Nimmo. JBJ or Odubel Herrera are far more likely.
Superfife has an interest in Sophie Mudd!
You go boy! Viva la Superfife!
Interested in Nimmo but they’ll sign Tyler Naquin