Aaron Judge entered free agency on the heels of the best platform year we’ve seen in decades, having proven the decision to turn down the Yankees’ seven-year, $213.5MM extension offer back in Spring Training to be a wildly successful bet on himself. Judge, who naturally declined a qualifying offer last week, is now free to field interest from teams throughout the league, but Yankees general manager Brian Cashman and owner Hal Steinbrenner both voiced hope of getting a deal done and keeping Judge in the Bronx long-term.
Cashman confirmed to reporters last night that the team has already made a new offer to Judge (Twitter link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com), stating that because Judge’s free agency is playing out “in real time… we’re certainly not going to mess around.” Steinbrenner backed Cashman’s sentiment, stating that he’s met with Judge multiple times since the season ended and “absolutely conveyed” that he wants him “to be a Yankee for the rest of his life” (via Newsday’s David Lennon)
Naturally, because Judge is an active free agent, Cashman didn’t disclose the terms of any new offer(s) — as opposed to his surprisingly candid Spring Training press conference, wherein he publicly announced the financial details of the Yankees’ final extension offer to Judge.
Judge is widely expected to top that spring extension offer handsomely, perhaps establishing a new average annual value record for position players and/or a new free-agent contract record in the process. At present, no position player has topped the $36MM AAV on Mike Trout’s 10-year, $360MM extension with the Angels (though Max Scherzer’s $43.33MM AAV is the overall record among big leaguers). Bryce Harper’s $330MM contract is the largest ever signed in free agency (though not the largest contract ever, as there have been a handful of extensions promising larger total sums).
Even with some form of record payday likely looming for Judge — MLBTR predicted an eight-year, $332MM contract on last week’s Top 50 rankings — Steinbrenner went on to note that he’s made clear to Judge that there’s ample payroll space to not only re-sign the recently crowned AL MVP but also make further additions to supplement the roster (via Lennon).
Even without Judge, the Yankees are projected for a bottom-line payroll north of $206MM, per Roster Resource, and a luxury-tax bill that’s already at nearly $223MM. Judge alone would push the Yankees into the second tier of luxury penalization, and any subsequent moves of note would then likely push the team into the third or possibly even newly created fourth tier of luxury penalties. Of course, those figures assume that the Yankees will tender contracts to and subsequently keep all 14 of their arbitration-eligible players, which seems unlikely. At least some of that group figures to be non-tendered before tonight’s 8pm ET deadline or tendered but subsequently traded, which would obviously alter the calculus.
JohnTheFisherman
Get it done
Curly Was The Smart Stooge
As Moses said “Let my people go”
I like Judge, he has a friendly disposition, & is a great ballplayer
I fear this is another Chris Davis contract, high risk, no outcome?
Let the dominoes fall where they may, I like the Yankees, but this contract could bind them up to where they need kaopectate, oh crap, no where to go.
RyanD44
Any contract he signs will be extremely ugly in the second half of it. This is a guy that has struggled to stay healthy at a young age. Big body, lots of muscle.. yikes in advance.
Braves Butt-Head
DH will be in his future
jekporkins
Gonna be really entertaining in about three years when the Yankees have two full-time DHs (Stanton and Judge) earning $60+ million.
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As interesting as Washington paying the same amount annually on Corbin and Stras.
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Same risk on every huge contract. Any player can fall off like a Chris Davis…Or get hurt…I don’t see how 99’s new deal will be any different from the other giant deals.
machurucuto
Why should they make the same stupid mistake Washington made?
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It’s a risk EVERY team makes on EVERY big contract. Judge is no different.
RyanD44
He’s one for you: of all the big 8+ year contracts, how many turned out to not be a mistake?
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Understood. And yet, owners still hand out the contracts. It may not be wise. But they still do it. The only way to deduce it logically is through supply and demand. Deep down the owners don’t want the contracts to be so long. But what is their recourse? Nobody is forcing them.
RyanD44
There are teams that have avoided them for the most part and done well – Guardians, Rays, the Braves have only handed out long-term deals on their terms..
Big market teams can make a mistake and get away with it.. Teams like the Brewers with Yelich, Reds with Votto, Twins with Mauer – if they hand out that kind of contract and that player doesn’t perform, it can cripple a franchise for the length of the deal.
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Agree 100%. Just saying that the practice is now firmly part of the game. I don’t think we disagree on a thing.
RyanD44
The fact that you have Chet Stedman as your avatar on here tells me that we’d be best friends. The only thing better would be a username of “Hot Ice”
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HOT ICE!!! It’s the best of both worlds!!!!!!
RyanD44
It has to make you wonder if that led to the creation of Icy-Hot
Rumors2godsears
I can only think of a few, Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, and Justin Verlander. And
Sherm623
Harper seems to be working out well, too
RyanD44
Verlander had a 5 year deal. Lester was 6 years, Scherzer 7 years. Gerrit Cole is the only one to get 8 or more (9). David Price, Kershaw and Strasburg were all 7 as well.
Hitting wise, the Machado and Harper ones look OK as of now, but they were expected to be good on this end. It’s how ugly it is later on, and how much the team suffers sitting on those contracts in the later years.
iH8PaperStraws
Except it’s not part of the game. Who was the last player that got 8+ years after the age of 30? Most contracts are designed to end after a player’s age 37/38 season. That means Judge will get 7 max, most likely 6. Especially from the Yankees who are living the dead weight of Donaldson.
RZ
I think baseball fans have short memories. The guy just hit 62 homers. 16 more than the next highest. That has not been done in 90 years. Many, and I think probably everybody should think 62 homers is the record. How can it be a mistake giving him an 8-year astronomical contract? He just had a one in a lifetime season.
RZ
Exactly right and teams like the Yankees really need to sign the Aaron Judges and Mike Trouts. The Yankees are under a lot of pressure. Judge was very kind offering the Yankees the last highest bid, and they will do it too. Hal already said the money is no object.
User 401527550
About half of them.
User 401527550
Kershaw, Arod, Ramirez,Arenado, Votto, Posey and a few that are looking good now to name a few.
JackStrawb
@RyanD44 Cano, oddly. The Mariners made out like bandits.
Texas’ ARod deal? They got 25 WAR in 3 seasons, which today would almost cover his entire contract.
Scherzer to the Nats? Might be the best deal in MLB history–ah, that was 7 years, though….?
I’m sure there are a few more.
The Reds have 30 WAR from Votto since he signed the extension.
JackStrawb
@RZ Because 2022 only matters when projecting 2023, 2024, 2025…and he’s hugely unlikely to do this again.
You pay for a player’s future projections, not his past performance except as it changes those projections. Still, Judge’s 2022 was so extraordinarily good it almost doubled his career WAR projections, from around 18 to 34. That makes a $300m contract, depending on how you compute inflation in and out of baseball, suddenly reasonable.
Still, if you think he’ll age like similarly 6′-7″ Richie Sexson, you won’t go near Judge.
jopeness
there are only a handful of completed 8+ yr contracts in last 20 yrs. Jeter, 2xArod, pujols, Votto,Cano. Jeter, first Arod evidence points to value. only Yankees won a WS with an active 8 year. Cano, 2nd arod we can prob agree were negative return. Votto and Pujols, prob did more for their team in merch, stat wise I think Votto is better.
JackStrawb
Cabrera’s deal we can probably count as completed. Yikes,
Pads Fans
Age. Judge’s deal will be similar to Pujol’s in how its value progresses.
Pads Fans
More than half turned out well for the team.
Pads Fans
Go through the list. You will find many more.
legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/le…
Jeter, Arod x2. Cano. Posey. Helton. Freeman. Griffey Jr. Rolen. Manny Ramirez. Adrian Gonzalez. A few more that I am not remembering.
Scherzer’s 7 year deal. Greinke’s 7 year deal. Lester’s 7 year deal. Kershaw’s 7 year deal. Verlander’s 7 year deal. Pujol’s 7 year deal. Chipper Jones’ 7 year deal. Kevin Brown’s 7 year deal. Matt Holiday’s 7 year deal.
Harper so far. I would venture to say that the Angel’s brass would say the Trout deal has been worth it so far.
Pads Fans
Verlander, Lester, Scherzer were all 7 years.
Contracts are not judged on how bad the last few years are. That is a given in long term deals. Its judged on the totality.
Pads Fans
That he just had a once in a lifetime season is exactly the reason that he should not get an 8 year deal.
In his 4 full seasons (2020 was a partial season) in the majors, Judge has averaged 36 home runs. Including 2022 he has averaged 41 HR. He will regress back towards that mean.
In fact, with 2023 being his age 31 season, a 7% decline below his career average is his expected production based on historical norms for players that age.
A .260 BA with a .888 OPS and 38 HR is what the odds say he will produce in 2023.
I think he will do better than that, but much closer to his career averages than his historic 2022 performance.
NWYanksfan
Don’t understand why he got labeled as injury prone. He’s had 2 soft tissue injuries. An oblique strain in 2019 when he still played 2/3 of the season, and a calf strain after an abbreviated spring training and still played 28/60 games. His other 2 injuries were a broken wrist after being hit by Jakob Junis and a broken rib from diving for a ball.
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NWYanksFan, other fans are just sore their team isn’t getting him.
NWYanksfan
I know. I’ve been reading comments here for years. Finally decided to put my 2 cents in. Lot of haters out there. You’re one I appreciate reading though
Balk
I still think that the Giants can pull him over. This article is to me saying hey, we made an offer, but he obviously hasn’t accepted. So, my wishful thinking is he wants to see what’s out there. I do have him returning to the yanks on my prediction contest though. But what do I know? Ha
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He is the Yanks to lose. They have to want him bad enough to be commited to be top bidder no matter what. What would be the dollar amount they would be prepared to lose him for???
Balk
Yeah, but when it’s all said and done, it’s going to boil down to where does Judge want to play. If he truly wants to be a Yank, then the big question is why hasn’t he accepted? You would think you would want your team to have some payroll flexibility to some extent. I bet it’s a handsome offer from the yanks. Just makes me wonder
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Balk, the Yanks may have made a nice offer, but his agent will still be waiting for counter offers. Maybe he accepts by tonight? Maybe his agent is doing a final check in with other teams to make sure they don’t come back with something that could sway him..
Balk
Yeah, it’s interesting on how these contracts play out. I mean, like you said, what’s the magic number?
JackStrawb
@TrumboJumbo I was wondering that as well.
Most projection systems put Judge in a similar ballpark, so if you value FA wins at something like $9m because of inflation over the next 7 years, that gets him almost to $300m.
Isn’t he worth another $5m a year to the Yankees at an absolute minimum, in attendance and concession boosts? If he only adds 600 ticket sales per home game that gets to $5m over 81 games.
There has to be other revenue that adds to that, on top of which is the revenue drop that comes from not having him, and the real danger in the AL East of missing the postseason if you’re scrambling to reassemble a roster without him. Imagine cheaping out and missing the postseason and what happens to attendance this year and next and perhaps further down the line.
Cashman has to be figuring the break even point is north of $350 million, maybe even $400 million, and Judge’s agent has to be aware of this as well, though a difference in projections of 5 wins and a difference in projecting inflation in the same direction could put Judge and the Yankees $100 million apart.
It’s not impossible to imagine someone saying something stupid and we end up watching Judge take the Giants’ 8/$336m offer.
JackStrawb
@Balk But would you take $21 million less from billionaire Hal Steinbrenner so Hal could find payroll flexibility out of *your* pocket?
Judge won’t, either.
Balk
Jackstraw…nah, I wouldn’t, but teams that are willing to pay for his services know the ballpark range for him. I look at it like this, if I truly want to stay with a team, I have a number in my head that I need to reach to stay, if it’s there I won’t waste anymore time with other teams. But what do I know?
RyanD44
NWYanksFan – I can justify a lot of players’ injuries. My point about Judge, or any player that has the kind of muscle mass that he has is that with as strong as he is, and as explosive as he is, he is more likely to continue to sustain injuries as he ages. The human body is capable of a lot, but as we age, it is more vulnerable and performing at world-class levels 6/7 days a week is very difficult when you have a body like Judge has.
My other concern is that with the large strike zone that he has, when his bat speed inevitably slows down with age, how much will pitchers be able to exploit weaknesses that aren’t necessarily there now, but will be later? Like others have cited, this will likely be an 8 year deal, and the signing team will be banking on him being the great version of Aaron Judge for the first 4 years of it, and then hope he can still be a good player for the remaining years. It makes sense for a team like the Yankees to take that risk, because he’s already there, the fans are already in love with him and the door is already open. As another GM, I wouldn’t take the risk simply because the risk isn’t worth the reward. If he performs at a high level, people will say “Well, duh! He was coming off an MVP season.” If he doesn’t perform, you’re the foolish GM that gave a guy $40m/year for 8 years after having the best season any of us have seen from a hitter in 20 years.
NWYanksfan
I agree. I think he’s more valuable to the Yankees than anybody. I just don’t agree that he’s injury prone at this point in his career. An oblique injury can happen to anybody at anytime. And 2020 brought about a lot of injuries to a lot of players due to the short spring training.
stymeedone
My guess is those four injuries may have caused him to be labeled injury prone.
JackStrawb
@NWYanksfan Probably because he’s injury prone. He missed 43% of his team’s games from 2018 through 2020.
Nimmo since he became a full time player in 2018 has gotten into more of the Mets games even if you throw out 2022, his most durable year.
That’s a fragile player. How it happened doesn’t matter much. Somehow the durable guys are, well, durable.
NostraThomas
Reality is that New York won’t let him out the door. There aren’t many true box office players in the sport like him. Ohtani, Bryce, Trout when he’s around? Starting pitchers are tricky in that regard as well.
To clarify, I speak of not only for home games, but road games as well. Soto and Machado (Tatis is damaged goods right now), Acuna, Mookie, Julio Rodriguez, Vlad Junior, et al. There is maybe a dozen to fifteen guys. I’m sure I left a couple out, but my point is Judge has a mythical quality and it’s accentuated by the pinstripes. He sells tickets. Only Ohtani is really on that “unicorn” level right now, because baseball does a garbage job of marketing their stars.
If Judge is a part of one Yankee title, the contract is worth it.
snotboy300
Please see Dave Winfield…at 40 he hit .269 with 26 bombs and he has almost the exact body size as Judge so may not be as ugly as you imply
Manbitesdog
Wingfield is an ox. Judge’s body ain’t like his.
machurucuto
He is not Winfield
NWYanksfan
You’re right. From ages 25-30, Judge is a better hitter. Hire OBP, OPS, OPS+, and more homeruns.
brucenewton
Winfield was at least 50 pounds lighter than Judge.
JackStrawb
@snotboy300 Cherrypicking aside, Winfield’s age 35-39 seasons featured all of -one- season where he was worth a regular lineup slot: when he was 36, in 1988.
Since the talk is typically of an 8 year deal, use Winfield as a comp for Judge’s age 31-38 seasons and Winfield was worth 22.3 rWAR, or around $200m. Judge turned down $213.5 last offseason, as you know. If the Yankees paid Dave Winfield today what Judge is asking for, and Winfield performed as he did back then they’re setting over $100 million on fire.
Speaking of the years flanking his age 40 season, call it 37 to 43, and Winfield was worth just 4.7 rWAR combined in those 7 years. The age 40 season you point to was his -only- good year.
In his last ELEVEN seasons Winfield only beat 3 WAR twice. He totaled 18.4 WAR in his final 11 seasons. In short, not quite the minimum standard for a regular after his age 32 season. That’s what the NYY’s risk buying into. A guy who used to be superb but turned into Giancarlo Stanton. Or Dave Winfield.
NostraThomas
Dave Winfield was a great athlete who got dumped on because he was brought in to replace Reggie, and he wasn’t that type of player. “Mr. May,” anyone? Fans rooted for Mattingly to win that batting title in ’84. He killed the seagull in Toronto. He’d get fooled on a breaking ball and have his bat end up ten rows into the third base seats lol! He deserved better here, but because he wasn’t Reggie version two, it never happened. I’m glad he won rings in Minnesota and Toronto. He was never anything short of a class act.
A'sfaninUK
Imagine coming in here to immediately point out the bad in something, that literally might never happen and if it does is literally 6 years away.
Being this asinine as well as being pro-billionaire – you must be fun at parties.
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You are right A’s Fan. 100%.
brodie-bruce
the reason teams make “risky” contract moves like 8+ years even if they know last few might get ugly. it really comes down to these 2 things, either player x is going to put enough a$$’es in the seats and merchandise sales to make it worth it or there banking on getting 3 to 4 good years and helps them win before it gets ugly.
RyanD44
Putting fans in the seats is a big factor – like if the Cubs signed Aaron Judge, they’d sell out again, even if they were a .500 team. Right now, they don’t have that big name. For a team like them, it makes sense. For a team that is already selling out – at least from a fan drawing stance, it doesn’t tip the scales much. Obviously drawing fans goes further than seats in the stadium. TV Deals, merchandise, etc.
The_M4N
The other reason that no one seems to be acknowledging is the ugly reality of our beloved sport… Those risky contracts with those AAV is the going market rate for top tier players. In the current marke, whoever wants him is going to have to give him a risky 8+ year contract over $36M.
IndianRye
And not wanting your team to be held back because of a single players contract, is a legitimate concern. You know he’s going to be terrible in approx. 5 years give or take a year.
ham77
It’s become almost a responsibility of the big market teams to have to absorb these albatross contracts knowing they will be terrible in the second half. I guess it’s just the Yankees turn for another one.
RZ
He just played the most games of his career this year. If the Yankees sit him for 40 games that means he could have played 30 of those 40 games. The Yankees baby their players.
User 401527550
And you will be the first to jump on his van wagon if your team signed him.
Henry Silvestre
He will be “over payed” by a lot.. he will not even come close to 2022 again
Dbacks44
He had the perfect free agent year. Nothing will compare to it again. He will be overpaid. However what he brings in attendance and fun is worth alot. He is a 280 40hr guy. Which is still great. Health will be the key. DH will save him
A'sfaninUK
Hey fun fact the only “over payed” or overpaid people in MLB are team owners, who are taking such a massive slice of the overall pie (including directly off Judge personally) are the MLB team owners, who tell you that the players are “over payed” or overpaid, when they are only receiving fractions of the overall money they are bringing in.
MLB really diverged away from the 80s/90s hyping players era. Remember when players were all over guesting on prime tv normal tv shows? And every kid had their room lined with posters of the players, and they were all over in culture. Now? Zero non-MLB fans know what Mike Trout even looks like. That’s because the owners saw that idea made the players take a bigger slice of the pie, and moved away to the pro team-“Moneyball” narratives, where suddenly the team owners PERSONAL CHOICE to not pay players union rates they deserved was “important” to people who post regularly on here.
Propaganda. You fell for it. Shame on you. Never ever be pro-billionaire in anything, we are seeing what frauds they all are in real time with what’s happening to Elon Musk right now.
YourDreamGM
Owners aren’t over payed. They won’t be payed at all unless they offer something they can sell.
Most players are over payed. Yeah yeah nobody wants to pay to see the owners play but most the players couldn’t make more than $300,000 doing anything else. Many couldn’t make more than $30,000. Owners just make so much they gladly pay the millions to keep the operation moving smoothly.
vtbaseball
spot on A’sfan
A'sfaninUK
“YourDreamGM” yeah of course YOU would disagree “owners wont be paid at all” LMAO man you gotta be 5 or 6 years old.
A'sfaninUK
@BaseballisLife so…are you saying…you dont think DH’s have any value? Bryce Harper just led the Phillies to the WS as a full time DH.
You dont know ball.
flamingbagofpoop
He’s a moron socialist, what do you expect?
Barkerboy
Nice. Elon knows how to run a business. Not sure about all “billionaires”. I guess you’re a Soros fan?
The_M4N
While I don’t necessarily disagree with you, I think the revenue sharing between management and the workforce in MLB is not inconsistent within labor practices. Of course it can only be better. And I don’t mean for the parties of the agreement (management/workforce), as I am not a defender of either billionaires or multi-millionaires who in reality, the distinction between them is almost non-existent from the aspect that they are both generationally wealthy. I mean it could be better for the fan who has to spend, conservatively, in the $250 range to take a family of four to ONE game.
BaseballisLife
The fact that everyone knows that he will be a DH in a couple of years is exactly why this is guaranteed to be a bad contract regardless of its length.
JackStrawb
If Judge is primarily a DH by 2025 the Yankees will be paying about $70m a year for the DH slot. assuming Stanton can still swing a bat.
IndianRye
Agree 44
The_M4N
“he will not even come close to 2022 again”
No sheet. With the exception of like a 5 year span, in a league that has been around for over 120 years, only two players have had a season that comes close to his 2022.
JackStrawb
He doesn’t have to, fwiw. Judge projects to about 7 WAR in 2023, If he hits that, losing about 1/3 of his 2022 value, then ages badly from there and loses 1 WAR a year, making for a steep aging curve, that means he puts up 28 WAR over the next 7 seasons, with a valuation around $252m.
If the Yankees pay him $300m they’ll make up the difference in revenue. They’ll have to pay him something like $350m AND watch him fall off a cliff for this to really go south. He’s worth enough on the side that even just 4 AS caliber years pretty much let NYY break even on a $300m deal.
A'sfaninUK
Its gunna be $400M and the Dodgers will pay it.
RyanD44
You’ve been reported for your comments above 🙂
Good day, sir.
rememberthecoop
@A’sfan – You are wrong. The Yankees are going to re-sign Judge. Look, the owner said specifically he will do whatever it takes. I am not a Yankees fan but it’s obvious to me that Judge is worth more to them than he is to any other team. Only way he leaves is if he doesn’t want to remain with the team, and we know that’s not true. So when you have an owner with deep pockets and both sides wanting it, what in the world makes you believe the Dodgers are going to sign him?
A'sfaninUK
Dodgers have more money than the Yankees and spend more recently and have not said they won’t go after every big name FA. Also they have a bigger OF need than the Yankees. All they have is Betts right now, they might even let Bellinger go because he’s too expensive.
Judge is also quiet lowkey California person and NYC is a zoo that has ruined players like Sonny Gray, who otherwise have had great careers. NYC nightlife and press are distractions that will come for all players in one way or another.
Whoever offers him the most gets him. The Yankees offered him $215M before the year, I dont see them upping that to the $450M they will likely need to keep him.
The_M4N
As a Yankees fan, if the Dodgers (the other NY team) wants to give him 10/400, thank you for the magical season BAJ. Enjoy Chavez Ravine.
GreenMonsta
How many offers have the Mets made? Oh wait, I think I know the answer to that one. ZERO.
jdgoat
It feels like yesterday when people were clowning him for turning down that initial offer last offseason.
JackStrawb
Last offseason 7/$213.5m was against a projection for Judge’s remaining career of around 18 WAR, making it a $50m overpay. I mean, who knew he had an all-time great, 10.6 rWAR season in him, one in which he’d get into 157 games, many of them in CF?
When you combine durability, the move to CF, and the increased production, it’s easily the greatest walk year in history. Weird how Nimmo’s walk year across town paralleled Judge’s. I wonder if they share an offseason conditioning coach, by any chance?
If Judge had torn an ACL on April 21 and ended the season with an OPS of .744 and just 4 appearances in CF, what do you think he gets this offseason? 4/100m?
stretch123
8 years, 300 million.
rememberthecoop
Too light. I say 8 years, 346.
Old York
Make it a Bobby Bonilla contract. He gets big money in the end but it’s spread over a longer period of time. He retires a Yankee and the financial hit isn’t as bad by the time he’s 37/38.
ChuckyNJ
The Bronx Bombers are not going to emulate the LOLmets just because the peanut gallery wants them to.
Old York
The Bronx Bombers are not the Bombers of the past. They are spending money but it seems without a plan.
JackStrawb
@Old York Cashman really does seem to work on an ad hoc basis. He’s not allowed to back off and reload, which means the team never really builds up a top farm system (in part because he and the people he hires are not great judges of minor league talent), but he’s also never allowed to go a little nuts on spending, so he plays it safe, doing foolish things like sign Rizzo, an old, 2 win 1Bman, to 20m a year===but they’re things he can justify to someone like Hal S. The Rays would slap Cashman’s face for something like this. Even the Rockies did better with CJ Cron for just 7m a year.
Ulmanoma
8 years 400 from la or sf
Pete'sView
AS terrific as Judge is, paying that kind of money on an annual basis will hamstring that team so they won’t be able to sign other top performers. One player does not make a team.
TheWomanWithTheGlassEye
Depends on the AAV, doesn’t it? Also, you are paying that as an investment to hopefully generate sales through tickets and merchandise, thus creating more of a budget to build a team.
YankeesBleacherCreature
Just adding that merchandise revenue is typically split among all 30 teams evenly.
jvent
That’s crazy $50 a yr. he’s been hurt 2 out of the last 3 years, whoever signs him for more than 5 years is nuts
The_M4N
@jvent, a 148 and 157 games played the last two seasons, how does that make being hurt 2 out of the last 3 seasons?
giantsphan12
@Ulmanoma, as a Giants’ fan, I hope you’re wrong. We need at least two or three impact players right now and hamstringing our future budget for 10 years on Judge is I’ll-advised.
MattDaddy72
Honestly 5yrs at 200
million that’s it!!
Milwaukee-2208
Anyone else just over this Judge Yankees drama? So annoying hearing about this. Just sign the dude and get swept by Houston again
whyhayzee
Error in Judgement will sign with the Yankees.
It will be below what he can get elsewhere.
The union will be silent on the matter.
This too shall pass.
fljay73
So who’s the first team to flinch on a 8 year $50 mil per deal?
If not 10 years $50mil per.
10centBeerNight
Risks with every superstar long term contract. He’s the face of that organization. Imperative NYY sign him.
A'sfaninUK
He will also be the face of every org except the Dodgers, who will likely sign Judge and Verlander to make a “greatest show in town” team that sells out everywhere they play.
Tiger_diesel92
Can anyone think that the Yankees could look at bellinger? Like I seriously think the Yankees and dodgers could good trade partners for him.
YankeesBleacherCreature
There is a strong likelihood that Bellinger gets non-tendered so a trade wouldn’t be required. I also don’t think he’s a good fit with another big ticket position player on the roster in Josh Donaldson who remains questionable offensively.
rememberthecoop
No, but I can certainly see the Cubs being interested.
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3 years 500 mil.
Yankee Clipper
WRONG! 1.5 years, 1 Billion Dollars (pinky to lip)
In brand new 20s
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Hahahahahah “Pinky to lip.” Nice Clip! I like how at first he demanded a smaller amount and they all started laughing. Then he cranked it up to 500 billion hahahaha
YankeesBleacherCreature
In stacks of $99 bundles. It would take an entire crew the whole offseason to pull $1 out of each bundle. Muahahaha…
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YBC, he might want to be paid in Crypto
Cincyfan85
Giancarlo Stanton 2.0 all over it. Buyer beware.
BaseballisLife
Worse. Judge is going to be 31 next season and in decline from the moment he signs the new deal. More like Cabrera or Pujols 2.0
foppert
Really ?
You don’t think we have a lot of control over our decline ?
If he checks out mentally upon signing the contract, sure. If he doesn’t do that and continues to work, he might even get better. That “work” thing might be the root cause of the decline in the two players you mentioned, not the number next to their age.
BaseballisLife
Take a few minutes and research the players outside of the steroids era that at age 31 or 32 improved their production coming off a record setting season. Any record other than Ks or HBP really.
It shouldn’t take too long. The list is short.
foppert
I believe you. My point is that it’s the mind causing the decline. Not the body. Chemically, the body is still capable of producing all the good performance enhancing stuff through your 30’s. The hard part is getting the mind to go through the discomfort associated with stimulating its production. As you say, many can’t do it. They are either too comfortable to bother, or are just over it by then.
NostraThomas
It is possible he continues to be great for awhile. He’s certainly not lazy, and playoffs aside, he’s been very disciplined at the plate. That went a long way to his success this year, laying off the breaking ball off the corner. Umpires will never get his strike zone right. Nothing says he’s immediately going to decline. He won’t hit 74 homers, but hit .300 with 100 RBI and play gold glove defense.
NostraThomas
It is a pure take. This is why I mentioned his work ethic. Dude wanted to be great. Now, he can go from myth to legend.
Bottom line, he’s not the only piece they need, but he’s essential to the identity of this team. I believe he will age better than people expect.
BaseballisLife
6/240 with 2 option years that can take it to 8/300.
mils100
Book it. Many years/A gazillion dollars.
I love how.people are concerned about him being overpaid. I hope to save 1 million dollars. We are talking money none of us can fathom and doesnt impact us. If they overpay, so what?
Plus, any world where relivers are making 10m plus, Judge can get 50 for all I care.
Wilmer the Thrillmer
Just sign already Aaron. Do you really want to try to eeck out a few more mil? Your grandchildren’s grandchildren are set for life.
slider32
Judge gets in the range of 8/40- 8/42 = 320- 340
stroh
So if it’s such a great offer, why hasn’t he accepted?
slider32
They haven’t made him captain!
@budselig6969
My sources tell me the A’s will sign Judge. They’ve been saving up for this moment since 2002.
YankeesBleacherCreature
Well don’t expect him to pay their outstanding plumbing bills.
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YBC that post is a winner hahahahahahaha
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Like you mentioned earlier…..Screw the plumbing and clogged toilets….Better to start off with more undercover security in the stands and cameras in the drink holders. Naughty business going on at Oak games haha
Mario93
Don’t know if I want Judge to leave just to damage the Yankees, or to resign so it hurts they’re payroll and so he gets to underperform in the second half of that contract.
YankeesBleacherCreature
It sure is conflicting but I’ve come to accept that Yankees, if they want to compete, will always carry a less than ideal backend contract situation. Some overlapping. Ellsbury to Arod to Stanton to Judge to Soto??
Mario93
Yeah… Yankees haven’t really treated Judge all that well. With Cashman purposely leaking contract negotiations to the media, making Judge out to be the bad guy, how he was asking for “too much”. Even now Cashman implies how Judge has to be willing to “work” with them to get a deal done.
I’m sorry, but Judge doesn’t have to do a thing but get every single cent that he feels he deserves.. Nobody has to take a pay cut to be a Yankee. Cashman needs to get that through his incompetent brain. If the Yankees payroll wasn’t as high, they’d give Judge whatever he wanted. But due to payroll mismanagement by Cashman himself, giving out bad contract to guys like Hicks and others, trading for Stanton, now they’re scared, and mismanaged this Judge situation.
I kinda want Judge to leave, so Cashman could get fired, so he can learn to respect the players. So when they tell you don’t leak negotiations, don’t leak it. And to not expect a player like Judge to take less money, just because you’re up against the tax, due to your own incompetence of handling this roster/payroll.
Yeah, I hope the Giants give Judge 40 mill per season or something so he leaves the Yankees. How much money are they paying Stanton since he became a Yankee, how much money they signed Cole for, but he wants to play these games with Judge? If I’m Judge I take that personally, and I genuinely look to leave.
YankeesBleacherCreature
That’s how Cashman has always operated. During the Jeter’s final contract negotiations, he encouraged him to test the market when they both couldn’t come to an agreement. Jeter didn’t want any of it to become public knowledge and was pissed. Cashman has to save the franchise’s face if they do walk. It’s the harsh side and reality of doing business but no one should take it personally. It’s tough not to though.
Mario93
Oh yeah.. definitely heard of the Jeter situation. For whatever reason he thinks this is a good tactic. Like you said, he has to protect the franchise I guess. I’m the type of person who’s big on character, if I shake another mans hand, and we agree we won’t leak this conversation, I will honour that. I’m sure their are gm’s around baseball who can honour stuff like that .. obviously I’m no Aaron Judge, but I wouldn’t associate with a gm like that again. Especially when theres other offers on the table that are just as lucrative probably.
Now I have to go to the media and deal with them regarding if I’m money hungry or not, because Cashman leaked it to the media when I asked him not to. People like that don’t have your best interest at heart, therefore they’re not even worth associating with. But I agree man, it really is a business at the end of that day, but a rather dirty one the way Cashman likes to do it. I don’t mind Yankee fans, why would I? Nor the team it’s self. It’s people like Cashman that really rub me the wrong way. If I was in that building and I’m Judge, I wouldn’t even say “hi” to the guy.
I hope Cashman gets to taste some humble pie .. he thinks players have no other team to play for then the Yankees. Even to Jeter.. how do you do that to your legend SS who helped you win I don’t know how many World Series. As great as that Yankee logo is, as great of a owner as the previous Steinbrenner was, it’s the players that make a team, not the people in the front office. The power to not disrespect goes along way when dealing with any man in my opinion.
grandsalametime
As both a Giants and a Red Sox fan, I hope you’re right. 🙂 Someone else here commented they’d love to see him sign with the Sox. That would be glorious. I’m hoping he goes with the Giants but the Red Sox would be beautiful karma.
sliderwithcheeze
It will be a case of the Yankees outbidding the Yankees. There won’t be another team involved. Minimal interest outside of NY
BaseballisLife
New account? Your old one got banned already?
sliderwithcheeze
I wouldn’t say banned. I’d say more of offered a generous pension package if I went away.
luclusciano
Minimal interest? Where are you reading that?
The_M4N
His as__s.
Saint Nick
Yanks will definitely overpay for Judge but I don’t see him signing anywhere else than with them.
slider32
Most top free agents are overpays, it comes with territory! Of the top free agents only Trout stayed with his original team for position players!
EastCoastGiant
Come on Giants. Get in the mix. Make a counter offer.
Perksy
To play TE for the Giants? Not a bad idea.
RandalGrichuksStubble
Welcome to Kansas City, Mr. Judge
Frankie Bani
50 millions 1 year,,next year after get ride Hincks and Donaldson 300 millions 7 years
GreenMonsta
Why would Judge take that deal? MLBTR estimates 8yrs/332M. Assuming its somewhat accurate, Judge would get 350M instead, and risk he doesnt get injured or put up poor numbers in 2023, which would kill his 2024 contract.
He’s been too injury prone, he’d be a year older and he’ll have a tough time repeating the numbers from this year, all to squeeze an extra 18M out of the Yankees.
Not a great plan.
machurucuto
Bad news for the Yankees. They will commit a large amount of money to Judge that will not allow them to properly fill gaps in other needs.
machurucuto
Committing 100M annually on three players (Cole, Stanton & Judge) will be a very expensive mistake for the Yankees.
RZ
Big NAMES get paid BIG dollars. The Yankees aren’t the richest team for no reason. You shake your head at some of these deals, but they just keep signing these big name players and racking up the billions. No bigger name in baseball than Aaron Judge at the moment.
citizen
I hear its a billon dollar deal.
$1 dollar a year for a billion years.
foppert
I think the team that is his preference, will pay whatever it takes to beat out the others. Pretty much just down to where he wants to be.
Poster formerly known as . . .
“a luxury-tax bill that’s already at nearly $223MM”
Nope.
There isn’t a team in baseball that has ever, or will ever, pay a luxury tax that high. That’s the level of payroll at which their tax would be determined. The tax itself is only a percentage of the amount by which they exceed the threshold — it’d be a fraction of that.
JayRyder
300 mil 8 yrs. That’s my Guess
RZ
agreed. Judge is such a unique player, and 2022 season confirms it. He is not the type of player you can compare to other players. It is the opposite. In the future they will compare them to Judge. There are articles out there about this. They were trying to compare Judge to other his size and build etc.. They were saying he would never hit .300+ and what happened? he hit .311 this season. His contract is wide open, and I think the Yankees will get him back.
angt222
8 yrs/$300M
TrillionaireTeamOperator
I am guessing it was a HEAVILY front loaded 8 years/$340M-ish offer-break the record on AAV for length, break a record on single season salary and match or exceed the AAV of shorter term deals that broke records.
3 years/$140M with $50M to $60M the first year followed by 3 years/$120M and 2 years/$75M for 8 years/$330M and there might even be a $10M signing bonus and a $10M buy out to equal an 8 year/$350M guarantee.
slider32
How does front loading a contract effect salary cap?
TrillionaireTeamOperator
It’s more about Judge’s desires than salary cap. If it was ONLY about salary cap, every single contract would be evenly valued divided by the number of years-but a lot of contracts are front or back loaded with graduated or undulating salaries and it’s as much psychological or personal financial strategy for the player as it is for salary cap- hence why a guy like Strasburg or Jose Ramirez etc have one year that pays them way more than the other years on a deal or why guys like Pujols or Stanton’s mega deals started at lower annual salaries that increased year over year, etc.
Again- if it was all about salary cap every contract value would be evenly paid across the years it covers, but that’s not always or rarely the case.
AAV and salary cap is a consideration for the Yankees but maybe salary amounts are also a consideration for Judge and teams would still benefit from different annual salary payments across more than half a decade even with the same luxury tax hit year to year.
NostraThomas
It doesn’t. The annual value is what hits the tax threshold.
giantwarrioras49ersraiders
Judge favorite team growing up was SF Giants! My little sister went to linden high with him!! He will sign SF!!!!!!!
EastCoastGiant
This is what I like to hear!
iH8PaperStraws
The Yankees have given him a new offer but he hasn’t signed. That tells me it’s not much more than they already offered. There isn’t really a market for Judge. They walked through it pretty well yesterday on MLB Radio. It’s pretty easy to see it’s only between the Giants and Yankees with a very outside shot of the Dodgers. With that lack of demand I’m still sticking with 6/$220mm or 7/$230. Doubt Mr. Judge is will to sit out to hold his ground.
RZ
I do not agree. They offered him seven-year $213.5 before his historic season. The market is huge for Judge after this season. Teams make money off of players. I do not know what network you are talking about but it was 100% wrong. They are projecting Judge’s contract at 10 years $400 MM. Whatever team Judge goes to will make big money. he just had a season that will be talked about forever. That is marketable.
grandsalametime
What do you bet Steinbrenner is making this public because they know Judge is very seriously looking elsewhere. He’s hoping this will sway Judge but given the tenor so far from Judge’s camp, I wouldn’t think so. That doesn’t mean Judge won’t eventually sign with the Yanks, but what it does mean is that nothing the Yankees say publicly will make a difference. It’s the contract that matters.
baseballguru
REDSOX sign Judge he fits every OF & Power need we have & would cripple NY for years to come…if nothing else, drive this price through the ceiling of obscenity!
NostraThomas
Didn’t work before. Won’t work now. Chaim used coupons. See you in two years. Worry about Fevers and your awful defense and shaky rotation.
RZ
Two 50+ homer seasons and REALLY should be TWO MVP Awards/ Trust me, the Yankees are drooling at the mouth over how much money they can make off of Judge. He will get whatever he wants.
JackStrawb
8 * $37m = $296m, and call it a day.
Judge projects to more than 7 wins in 2023, which is incredibly good, and about 32 WAR for 2023-2029. He’s a good enough hitter that he might be a cromulent DH even at 37, unlike Albert or Miggy. .
2019-2022: Judge pips Marcus Semien in WAR by less than 10%.
2018-2021: Semien is better than Judge according to WAR by about 10%. No wonder Simmy got paid.
JPR
According to Cashman, Judge’s free agency is playing out in real time. What the hell does that mean?
dasit
of course judge is an outlier in terms of height/weight but the narrative that he is injury-prone is false. do whatever it takes to sign him and accept that the second half of the deal will be ugly just like every other long-term deal. he’s the face of the team and apart from cortes they’d be kind of a bore without him
jackjohnson52183
What Are They Offering?
machurucuto
The ultimate goal of a team is to win the World Series, not to sign the most expensive players. And signing the most expensive players does not guarantee winning everything. Machado, Harper, Rendon, Trout, Pujols, Miggy, Scherzer, Cole, Stanton, Correa, Seager, Lindor and many other players with expensive contracts did not even win a single World Series. Winning a World Series requires much more than signing the most expensive player available.
machurucuto
Is he the GM? Does he already has a contract or is he working for free?
grandsalametime
More for the guessers: Just saw this … Jimmy Fallon makes a remark about Judge staying. Judge says nothing.
mlb.com/yankees/news/aaron-judge-jimmy-fallon-surp…
jackjohnson52183
What?