The Giants’ offer to reigning American League MVP Aaron Judge is “believed to be [in the] $360MM neighborhood,” reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The number of years on the contract aren’t clear, though recent reports have suggested Judge could push for a nine-year deal. That would put the potential average annual value on San Francisco’s offer in the $40MM ballpark, or perhaps in the $36MM range if they were comfortable extending the offer to a decade in length in order to mitigate some of the AAV and luxury tax concerns.
San Francisco has long been seen as the primary threat to sign Judge away from the Yankees, given their increasing urgency to field a winner, the team’s wide-open payroll outlook and Judge’s fandom of the team as a child growing up in Northern California. Judge has met with both teams in the past week, and outside of some loose connections to the Dodgers, there’s been no concrete reports of other teams involved in the mix.
That hardly means Judge only has two suitors, of course. Coming off a 62-homer, .311/.425/.686 season that netted him his first MVP win, it stands to reason that the majority of teams would at least inquire about the possibility of a deal. However, given the heights to which his market appears to be soaring, most clubs would surely balk at making a competitive offer.
Still, today’s revelation that the Padres offered Trea Turner a $342MM deal that would’ve given him the third-largest guarantee in MLB history — only to be rebuffed in favor of the Phillies — has at least served as evidence that another team is willing to spend at the very top end of the free agent market (albeit on a different player). There’s been no firm link between the Padres and Judge just yet, but with San Diego eyeing the corner outfield market and having displayed a willingness to commit an unprecedented third $300MM+ contract, it’s easy enough to speculate that the Friars could emerge as a viable third entrant in the bidding.
Heyman suggests that even with the Giants’ enormous offer, many in the industry still believe the Yankees to be the favorites. The Yankees, for their part, of course continue to hope that Judge will re-sign and spend his career in the Bronx, although recently extended general manager Brian Cashman told reporters last night that agent Page Odle has not given the Yankees any assurances that they’ll be afforded the opportunity to match or exceed an offer from another team before Judge accepts (link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com).
The Giants have approximately $133MM in salary committed to next year’s books and are a projected $91MM shy of the first tier of luxury-tax penalization, so an AAV for Judge in the upper $30MMs or even reaching $40MM wouldn’t put them anywhere close to the tax line. Judge did reject the Yankees’ qualifying offer, however, so he’d cost the Giants their second-highest pick in next summer’s draft and also trigger a $500K reduction in their spending capacity on international amateur free agents.
Samuel
Imagine him and possibly Nimmo standing around in the OF looking at his/their teammates on the field that are basically utility players to start the game, that may be swapped out for other utility players based on analytics as the game goes on.
Nah, they have other options. They’re 30 years old. Why would they go through a rebuild that may well not work?
dezpoo
Do you need help? Having a stroke?
agnes gooch
Hilar! Thank you!
Samuel
Judge needs to talk to A-Rod.
Find out what his experience was playing in Dallas….
They had a wonderful farm system full of prospects and were committed to winning.
ForeverGiantsFan
The Giants are a better organization than the Rangers. I think Judge may be tired of the Yankees management. With the Giants he would not have to put up with the fickle NY fans. If he resigns with the Yankees so be it (move on sign Correa).
Samuel
ForeverGiantsFan;
I’ll have to spell it out for you…..
I’m talking about A-Rod’s signing a long-term contract with the Rangers in 2001 – when he was assured they were a team on the rise. That as quite a 3 year experience for him.
Hoping to recover from my stroke.
deej
To act like Giants fans aren’t also fickle is hilarious. ALL fans are fickle.
astrosfanFF7
@deej Most fans don’t boo their own players, and if they do it isn’t as often as the Yankees. I don’t think that would have much impact on whether someone would sign there or not, but you never know. Some of these players have unprecedented egos.
JackStrawb
@astrofanFF7 And it doesn’t have to be just ego, it can be a sensible preference. When you feel you’ve worked your arse off for the team, to have to hear boos when you’re struggling despite giving it your all feels ugly—especially after you carried the team..
I’d understand a player not wanting to deal with that again, all else being roughly equal. It’s not like he was jaking it down the line after a grounder to 2B. He’d just finished up a 62 HR season. Between that and his remark about the FO looking to set fans and the media against him by leaking their ST offer of 7/$213.5m, I booked a modest bet on Judge leaving the Yankees. That’s a serious discontent. I think he’s tired of the FO and the fans in NY. Throw in his wife’s preferences, and he may well be done.
astrosfanFF7
I don’t disagree with you. I don’t agree with fans booing their players. At the same time, I can somewhat understand why they do. With as much as these people make, they should be all batting .500 lol. But if you start taking that into account, the owners should be put on the field to get booed too. But I think for the most part if someone really wanted to play in NY they’d put aside the boos to do so, as we’ve seen with other Yankee signings. I don’t know if Judge’s heart is there. We’ll just have to see.
LordD99
@astrosfan, and most Yankee fans, the overwhelming majority, don’t boo their players or Judge. When there are 48,000 people in the park and Judge K’s three times in a key postseason game, 46,000 are quiet which means you can hear the 2,000.
I doubt that will have any impact on where he decides to play. It will be the money and perhaps a desire to play for his favorite team growing up.
LordD99
@JackStrawb, word is that players love to play for the Yankees because of how they’re treated. Everything is top notch and the team wins every year. I have no inside knowledge, but I do think Yankee fans frustration that they haven’t won a World Series title since 2009 colors their view of what they do well and how they’re viewed by players. The fans boo’ing? That’s a fan problem, but as I noted elsewhere, it’s an extreme minority.
OIC2021
Guardians minority owner David Blitzer is ready to make splash on Judge. The Guards are “in” on a serious basis with Judge.
Blitzer is known for his investments in the Philadelphia 76ers, Pittsburgh Steelers, New Jersey Devils, Cleveland Guardians, and four professional soccer clubs. He’s the first person with an equity stake in the five biggest US professional sports leagues.
PKVA
No way in holy hell is he going to Cleveland…
BravesNomad
Source?
IndianRye
Why do you constantly lie and say Cleveland is in on every single big player and make fun of them for making small acquisitions? Seriously it’s annoying. Your just mad they make it to the playoffs on a yearly basis.
Rsox
I think we’ve found Jon Heyman’s burner account
carllafong
San Francisco is not Texas. They win and have money to round out the roster behind him. And if this is their initial offer, what are they willing to go to?
Chipsss
Always wonder about people who love to hear themselves talk so much they say the same thing over and over.
foppert
110%. A really unpleasant amount of ego.
OIC2021
Well, I have been correct on every player that has not signed with the Guardians, so facts don’t lie.
PKVA
Ahhhh see my comment above…no way in holy hell is Aaron Judge going to Cleveland. Either Yankees or my Giants…home is home and think that will be the reason for his final decision. Not the money, not Yankee tradition, legacy, captaincy…in my opinion….
Samuel
Chipsss;
Always love to read kids that know nothing about history.
foppert
Please. You love reading your own opinion way more than that.
myaccount2
When you add players like Judge and Nimmo, it significantly lowers the burden for good-but-not-great players like Joc, JD Davis, and Flores.
No, that may not win a title, but it’s enough to be competitive. If he is okay with that, why wouldn’t he do it since he’d be given $360M and the chance to go back home?
Curly Was The Smart Stooge
I simply can’t conceive NY letting Judge get away. He’s home grown & the backbone of the team. Although the money is ridiculous, the thought of letting Judge get away is more absurd. Gotta keep him…
slider32
It seems clear to me that Judge is driving seat and not the Giants or Yanks
Because I was born in PIT
Home grown is an interesting comment since California seems to be his home. Considering this amount of money, chances are he is thinking more about where he wants to live, raise a family, be happy, and other tangibles and intangibles. Trea took less to be in Philly; seemingly because of the East Coast issue. You just never know.
Ma4170
If you actually add both, it can’t help but improve a team significantly
PKVA
And for the Giants, signing Judge is not about winning as the first priority. It is bringing in a legit star and selling tickets….if they can make a playoff run next couple of years…wonderful! As a lifelong Giants fan since being a kid since the late 70s and finally winning not one world series, but three, I think nearly all longtime Giant fans are content and dont feel I cannot die without another world series win. Any additional wins in my lifetime and certainly over Judge’s 9-10 years is just gravy.. We got our five super bowls so losing the last couple does not sting as it may have once and the recent four championship Warriors run has also satisfied that desperation to win. Us SF/Bay Area fans are good…just give me a stud and star to watch…
Samuel
PKV;
Great!
Does Mr. Judge know this?
Astros2017&22Champs
Yes. Noone feels bad for San Francisco. That town has more titles than a used car lot. Jealous………
deej
Develop your own stars instead of buying someone elses
bkwalker510
Posey retired. MadBum signed elsewhere. the Lincecum broke. Matt Cain retired. SF has no problem developing their own stars
Curly Was The Smart Stooge
His professional BB career has been in NY only, which is what I meant by home grown. Apologies to all who thought I meant he grew up in NY.
Saint Nick
Gollum? Smeagol?
ric7744
rebuild they are just beginning to sign players, won the most games in MLB year before last, they have a huge amount of money to spend. They will make the playoffs even without Judge. Maybe you should get some knowledge. By the way who has won the most World Series in the last 15 years, Oh its the Giants
claude raymond
Def of rebuild: take completely apart and put back together. The infield you say they’ll look at, Samuel, is not utility filled. All can play everyday if need. Davis Crawford Estrada Flores are everyday players. Davis and Flores were more available than Longoria and Belt last year. Again, not utility. Samuel, it seems no matter what Zaidi does, you find negatives to whine about.
Astros2017&22Champs
I like the giants but they need a lot of help. Way too many spare part/cast offs of other teams. You can’t win without several cost controlled homegrown studs. The young catcher stinks. Heliot Ramos flatlined in the PCL last year. They are also in a horrendously brutal division. The DBacks have some tremendous young players coming up. Zaidi has some serious work to do
Samuel
Astros2017&22Champs;
Agreed.
Did you watch that team in 2022? Heavens, Rodon was losing his temper over the defense…..and as for the offense…..
Maybe they’re not rebuilding. If so, do you know of a team that built a core overpaying free agents? I haven’t seen that in decades. Have to go back to when free agency came about.
Tippin 44s
The Phillies last year & this year now
JackStrawb
Wilmer’s never cracked 2 rWAR in a full season. Calling him an everyday player in the way that’s actually meant (“worth putting in the lineup every day”) isn’t just a stretch, it’s simply not accurate. The Giants did well to limit his exposure in 2021, and he definitely earned his salary and was a solid fit on a great team, but if you leave Wilmer out there for 150 games he’ll do what he did this past season: struggle badly and give you 0.6 rWAR in 151 games.
Granted Farhan smoked the Mets in the Ruf deal and JD Davis is a nice, complementary player to have, but he should never take the field. He’s a full time DH, at best. His 162 game average isn’t even 1.0 rWAR. Definitely useful, but he and Flores are bench guys on a real team.
Balk
Bleacher report has the Giants brass meeting with Correa and Nimmo on top of their offer to Judge. Crazy money being thrown around if this is true of the Giants.
Samuel
Balk;
Along with the Rangers they’re desperate.
Smart, well run organizations don’t do desperate things.
Balk
Samuel, what team do you root for? When they go out and spend, should we call your team desperate? Was the Dodgers desperate to land Betts to stay competitive? Was the Padres desperate to trade away all their farm to get what they wanted. It seems you have nothing to offer with your comments so don’t direct your bad day at me bud.
ForeverGiantsFan
Farhan with a 100 million to spend will be able to put a playoff team together.
If they sign Judge then other players will want to join him.
Samuel
ForeverGiantsFan;
Every year moves made during the offseason seems to spell out who the contenders are.
By late May – early June of the season reality sets in.
This one belongs to the Reds
That’s a nice neighborhood. I’d like to live there!
Dustyslambchops23
Adios
thecoffinnail
Don’t be so sure. This reminds me of 2007/08 and ARod. Remember it was supposed to be Hank that took over leading the Yanks but Boras made him look so bad Hal got the job instead. Judge’s agent could be the source behind this $360m leak trying to get the Yankees to bud against themselves. It worked for Boras why not give it a shot? You pay $360m for the final piece of your championship contending team. Not the 3rd or 4th. Makes no sense for the Giants to jump the Yankees reported offer that much. I hope the Yankees let him walk. His production can be replaced with 2 $15m aav players with far less red flags about their health. They have several other mashers already. They need table setters now. Turner was a perfect fit. Sad they let him go in favor of chasing Judge.
bkwalker510
Padres signed Machado prior to their window
Gasu1
How do you replace Judge with two $15M players?
Jonthunder
He gone; Cashman gonna sign Nimmo and Chris Carter.
Buzz Killington
Cashman gonna make surprise move to make up for Judge leaving by signing Felipe Vazquez.
Robertowannabe
You are not supposed to name the Pitcher Who Shall Remain Nameless. He is pitching in the PA Penal League and not sure that he can make Spring Training……
Jm207* 2
Why do you think that’s funny?
Robertowannabe
What he did was not funny in the least. What @Highest_IQ posted was to me a reference to the movie Major League. I did say that he should never be named again and he shouldn’t The last sentence was also just a reference to the same movie.
Lefty_Orioles_Fan
If the Giants want him, then they should get him
Judge will missing hitting in OPACY and Yankee stadium
Yankees need to rebuild or something
fred-3
Can’t rebuild when you have Cole and Stanton on the books for like 6 more years.
Poster formerly known as . . .
And Hicks, and LeMahieu, and toss in another year of Donaldson. But give that ninja four more years.
deej
Hicks and Donaldson are not on long-term contracts. Every Yankees fans wanted to re-sign DJL.
Nice try.
Poster formerly known as . . .
Hicks was given a 7-year contract that runs through 2025 with a buyout in 2026. I specified “another year of Donaldson,” which is one year too many at $21 million; plus, they have to spend another $6 million to buy out his contract in 2024; and if they want to unload him in a trade, he has a 5-team no-trade clause that might complicate that effort.
And, yes, most Yankee fans wanted to re-sign DJ, but some didn’t, including me. Look at his career stats and you’ll find that he had a sup-par OPS+ for most of his years in Colorado, and he was 32 years old when they extended his contract to run through his age-37 season. Cashman once again bought high on a player.
casorgreener
LMAO
TrillionaireTeamOperator
I mean not a surprise by any means. Pretty much what we’d all expect to compete with New York. This is just Judge’s market.
The fact that the signing hasn’t been announced makes me think Judge is pushing the Yankees to match or exceed that offer- otherwise why wouldn’t he have signed by now? Unless it’s for 10 years and the AAV is too low for Judge’s tastes?
Joe says...
Judge is supposedly en route to the winter meetings. Could be a signing today. For that amount of money, I’d let him go to the Giants.
mvpetro
Why? It’s not your money.. Judge makes the Yankees so much money he should get as much as possible from them.
Joe says...
Here is the answer to the all too common comment “it’s not your money”
The Yankees (as well as every other team) operates under a budget. It doesn’t matter what we think the budget should be. It matters what Hal thinks it should be.
With that, I don’t want that much of a percentage of the overall payroll dedicated to one over 30 year old player. I also don’t want a roster spot dedicated to a late 30s broken down guy who can’t catch up to the fastball anymore. Because for as much as everyone wants to talk about releasing those players as a sunk cost, the guy signing the check ain’t going to do it.
mvpetro
Well Hal is gonna lose a lot of money if he lets Judge walk.
Ancient Pistol
You can make it back if you make it to the playoffs.
RobM
If a team knowingly signs a player longer term as a way to reduce the AAV hit, and they’re willing to release him those last few years, all fine. The problem though is they won’t pull the trigger, even if they believed they would at the signing. They’ll try and convince themselves they’ll get some value, every three game hot streak is a sign the player has made adjustments. It’s the fans who will have to live through the pain of watching a washed-up player still getting ABs.
Ancient Pistol
Joe knows…. The team needs upgrades in multiple positions and it stuck with dead under-performing contracts. Signing Judge to that deal negates the ability to correct other issues.
As a Yankee fan who follows most games, I would vote to let him go.
Joe says...
I agree 100% Darth.
TheMan 3
It’s not all of his money paying Judge’s salary but ticket sales contributes to any player’s salary.
Maybe Joe’s not contributing this upcoming season but my guess he has in the past
The_M4N
Many of us feel that way. It would be one thing if this was the only $300M+ contract. But with Cole and Stanton already on the books, even the Yanks have their limit.
Dr2022
Spot on Joe.
Dr2022
You are obviously right about that.
Shaun owens
Yeah let yes network pay him the Yankees have enough for anyone the want,
jolink65
Wish I could like this comment more than once. Every team operates on a budget regardless of what Steve Cohen has said. The Yankees should not be giving $40 million to a player whose best days are most likely behind him. He’s loved here and should be the next captain, but only if they can get him signed to a reasonable deal that allows them to make other moves. Paying him $40 million means they’d have $110 million dedicated to him, Stanton and Cole. That’s no way to build a well-rounded roster.
JackStrawb
@Joe says You said it. As much as the Tigers should have released Miggy years ago, he’s still there. Same with the Angels and Pujols, assuming we’re talking about the best baseball moves.
I suppose it ‘helps,’ given that by keeping its faded superstar around neither team was sacrificing the couple of wins that might have been the difference between making and missing the playoffs, but it’s the rare team that actually cuts a former star in the last years of an albatross contract, and one of the reasons that decision is often not a meaningful one wrt crucial marginal wins is because the team shot its bolt and with 15-20% of payroll going to a negative performer, they figure they might as well sell a few more jerseys on the way to 75 wins.
JackStrawb
Granted the AAV is higher, but I’d take a route including Nimmo and another SP you actually want making postseason starts. The Yankees should be able to make the postseason with that roster, but they shouldn’t be betting everything on winning the division.
Instead, focus on being able to plow through a 4-round postseason on the way to getting to and winning a World Series.
JackStrawb
@The_M4N Well said. When Judge is 35, Stanton will be 38, Cole 37. The three of them if judge gets a 40m AAV will combine to make $101 million that year. Stanton goes off the books after that, but in 2028 you’ll still have a 38 yo Cole and a 36 yo Judge making $76m.
Or 2026, when DJLM is still on the books at age 38: $116m for him, Judge, Cole, and Stanton. That’s close to half your payroll for what, a projectable 9 wins, more or less? Sheesh.
Poster formerly known as . . .
“Signing Judge to that deal negates the ability to correct other issues.”
True, Darth, but I’d phrase it differently. Signing Judge to that deal negates the willingness to correct other issues. The Yankees’ salary cap is self-imposed and doesn’t reflect their ability to spend on the roster and still be highly profitable. And the Forbes valuations don’t include substantial revenue streams, but still they show teams like the high-spending Dodgers increasing the value of their franchises by double digits:
forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2022/03/24/baseballs-…
Gasu1
Agree with everything you say except “the Yankees operate under a budget.” That’s not how budgets work. FIRST the business determines the strategy, THEN you set the budget to achieve that. A budget does not drive the strategy.
.
Today is the day Joe!! I can smell it!
Joe says...
Think you’re right Trumbo.
TrillionaireTeamOperator
Meh. Could be anything. Judge is clearly trying to get the most money possible when he signs and he may be meeting with multiple teams purely to get New York to match or exceed any other largest offer he may receive.
I really don’t think Judge would want to sign anywhere except with San Francisco or the Yankees. I think he also thinks about his baseball legacy in conjunction with the money and he wants to have both- the most money possible in this market and to be on a team where he is relevant and hopefully historic in nature.
That’d be the Yankees. And from a personal perspective for Judge- the Giants. The A’s drafted Judge in large part because he was a homegrown talent for the bay area and he didn’t sign with them because he knew that if he played in Oakland he’d eventually have to go somewhere else relevant either by trade or by free agency and he’d lose a lot of money along the way. He went to the Yankees because of their pedigree and their history.
I don’t think the Padres qualify for Judge’s requirements, I don’t think he’d want to be on the Padres, I don’t think he’d want to go to the Mets, I think he’d go to the Dodgers if the money and years matched the Yankees, etc.
But that’s about it- Yankees, Dodgers, Giants….. who else is there who’d qualify in Judge’s eyes?
Joe says...
I quit believing in Judge saying winning is the most important thing. Obviously money is the most important thing and there’s nothing wrong with that at all. If winning was most important, he would have signed somewhere already. I think top dollar gets him no matter where.
Ma4170
I know I’m not supposed to, but I do have a problem with that. There’s really no appreciable difference at that point ($360M vs. 300M) in the grand scheme of life. With even average investments he’ll make money to support multiple lives of loved ones. So it does become about ego and greed (and the players union I’m sure, I get it), but I lose respect for players after a certain point. That’s just me
ric7744
If winning is the most important thing, he becomes a Giant as they have won more world series in the last 20 years than the Yankees and will win another before the Yankees do. Would not surprise me to see the Giants Sign Judge and they go get Correa and good Pitcher and a closer and end up in the World Series next season. Not to say they will but it wouldn’t surprise me
Ancient Pistol
If he takes an outlandish contract with the Giants then it is all about money (with a little bit of returning home on the side). Of course, that’s his deal but Turner showed that money has it’s limits by turning down SD.
If Judge wants to win he should avoid SF since they are on the cusp of nothing. This may include taking a cheaper deal with the Yankees or somebody else.
Now, I can’t fault SF since they have nobody on the field fans want to see. There is nothing there so they need someone and Judge would get fans in the seats at a higher rate than someone such as Correa.
Don’t sign him Cashman! Also, Hal fire Cashman and Boone before midnight!
ric7744
No matter what he does the Giants will still find a way to win the World Series before the Yankees do
Ancient Pistol
Not with that team. If Judge goes to SF you’d might as well change the name to the SF Judges since he’s all they have.
Joe says...
Ric, the only players left from the last SF WS is the ghost of Brandon Crawford. Neither team has any claim to WS legacy right now.
Dr2022
I agree with you and I dare judge no umbrage for that. And if winning was the only thing he cared about, hed already be an Astro or in LA
RobM
If winning is important, Judge will have to believe that the Giants will bring in a couple more big bats for protection, and protection means not just someone behind him, but players in front of him to get on base so pitchers simply won’t walk him every AB. Right now, there’s little reason to throw Judge a strike on the Giants. Maybe they’ve convinced him that they will sign more players, but they can’t guarantee that. He’s going to have to have faith that the Giants will consistently field a winning team that will make the postseason for the next decade. I don’t believe that. Will Judge? Does he care?
TrillionaireTeamOperator
A few things:
1) There is a difference. There just is. Maybe not between states with high income taxes vs no income tax or whatever, but there’s a difference- of around $27M after taxes, give or take about $3M.
In the case of someone like Judge, I think he’s trying to accomplish 4 things with the largest contract possible:
1) He just wants the bragging rights
2) He wants the personal wealth
3) He wants to achieve his personal wealth goal while still having money left over to give to his All Rise charity and other charitable causes because he’s got a strong faith and believes in giving back- I think this is exceptionally genuine with Judge.
4) Pushing the goal post for the next player in his position- this is courtesy of the players’ association’s mandate/request that players try to exceed the salaries of comparable free agents of years past, by a few hundred thousand to a few million a year, so that the salaries keep up with inflation and so that the teams don’t get to keep increasingly large percentages of their profits instead of the players getting that money for their value to the industry- aka the players being the whole reason the industry makes money.
thecoffinnail
Exactly, if you want to see Judge in 2 years take a look at Stanton. They have the exact body type and gives you a look at what the long baseball season does to a 6’7” 270lbs body. He will be lucky to play 100 games a year 2-3 years from now. $100m spent on 3 players is a mistake. Especially when 2 are oft injured sluggers.
deej
The Giants have only ONE winning season in the last 6 years.
JackStrawb
@TrillionaireTeamOperator If the rumor’s true, SF offered 9/$360m. The Yankees offering $300m yesterday has to feel like they’re lowballing him, to Judge.
Wow–at least the Giants put it all on the table. Odd in one way, since I wouldn’t have expected the Yankees to go to $330m, let along $359m. SF ain’t screwin’ around!
rememberthecoop
At the risk of repeating myself, I still believe the Yankees will re-sign him. He will get his best offer and let Hal beat or at least match it. I do think he signs today or tomorrow. He wouldn’t come to the winter meetings unless that was the plan
.
Ditto Coop! 10/400 drive it home Yanks!!
rememberthecoop
This s exactly the contract I was thinking of. I swear we must have some mental telepathy going on Trumbo!
WSC’s since ‘62 PHI 2 ATL 2 NYM 2
Turning down 7/213 looks pretty good just 8 months later when you get 10/400.
Jean Matrac
And silly me, I thought at the time that 7/213 offer was fair.
RobM
It was a fair offer. At that time. This is now a different time.
No one expected this season. That’s the issue. He’ll never repeat it. I expect him to have very good years for the next few seasons before the inevitable decline that could be for six or seven years depending on when that decline comes. The Yankees got his peak year and they got the peak part of his career.
The Yankees will be weaker without Judge in 2023, but they may end up better in 2024 and beyond by freeing up money they can direct elsewhere, and it’s money that may not go to pay for a declining player in a few seasons.
LordD99
We may find that out, Rob, at least based on reports.
As Pujols discovered leaving his legacy team, he may not be happy a couple years down the line, but he will be wealthy.
TrillionaireTeamOperator
Yup. He’s going to push the price up based on other teams’ offers trying to top everybody else and then he’ll go to the Yankees and ask them to match or slightly exceed that number and the chances are the Yankees do match that number.
Look, turning down $234M over 8 years for $400M over 10 years is a massive win for Judge and his camp and holding out for that and giving the market a chance to solidify that price point was justifiable even before his 2022 season, now it’s exceptionally reasonable.
It’s the smart move for Judge as an individual.
ric7744
If he wants to be close to home and win a world series he will go Giants, if it is about the money then Yankees.
Padres2019ha
Padres. Let the Preller hate commence
Braves Butt-Head
Tony Bennett left his heart in San Francisco but Aaron Judge is about to find his Wallet is San Francisco lol.
Yankee Clipper
Keep in mind this is from John Heyman, so it could be pure conjecture.
Note the ever-present Heyman qualifier, “believed to be in…”
He does this all the time. Rumors for rumors sake, without any concern for credibility. Once out of every fifty times he’s right and he’s okay with that.
.
Clip if they bag the man up for 10/400 I want you to be elated and nothing less ok??? Hahaha No regrets when you guys get your man regardless of price!!!
Yankee Clipper
Yeah man, like the tattoo commercial, “No regerts” today.
This market is….insane bro. This shows you just how much money these teams are hemorrhaging…. T Turner for $342MM?! Judge for…whatever it’s going to be over that? They must be raking money in so fast they’re having trouble spending it.
.
Haha I’m glad I missed that commercial Clip…If I saw it in 2016 I would have followed through with my Altuve tattoo.
RobM
Baseball is incredibly profitable, Clip. It is the second largest revenue producing sport in the entire world, only behind the NFL, which is in its own category. No MLB team loses money. None. Even the “poor” teams are profitable, but they are good at claiming poverty to their fans.
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Yanks getting ready to come over the top with 10/400 and seal this deal. Seriously see it happening.
Astros2017&22Champs
The Yankees can’t lose Judge. It will cripple them. He’s the only home grown superstar since Jeter. He is their brand. That guy puts butts in the seats at every ballpark.
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Astros, nuff said!
WSC’s since ‘62 PHI 2 ATL 2 NYM 2
The Yankees farm system was at its peak in the Gene Michael, Bob Watson days, Brian Cashman has not been able to fill the shoes of those guys.
judgementday99
Gene Michaels Evaluated Talent….Brian Cashman keeps re-reading his copy of Moneyball….
deej
Watson made some awful trades. There was an article on Fangraphs showing how Stick Michaels wasn’t that good of a farm system guy and most of the Yankees players in the dynasty era were mercenaries
If Volpe, Dominguez, and Pereza are the real deal then the Yankees will be set for a long time..
jolink65
And they’ve won what with him? I’d obviously love them to re-sign Judge, but let’s not pretend that the Yankees wouldn’t just move on and sign a couple players to replace his production. In fact, I’d think they’d pivot pretty quickly to other big name signings if he were to sign elsewhere.
If the Giants want to pay him $40 million a year then let that be their problem. That contract is going to look awful once he starts breaking down as a player and I’d wager at least half of that contract will be an albatross. Again, I’d love him to be the next captain here, but not at that price.
marinersblue96
So he’s a Giant. Does NY go all in for Nimmo and Yoshida?
Yankee Clipper
No, they already made their play and went all in for Cashman.
Dr2022
That is sad but true clipper. If the Yankees cared about what they claim to care about, Cashman would’ve been gone a long time ago. He had billions of dollars over the last dozen years or so to put together a world championship team and has been unable to do it, even though they claim to be all in on that every year ,laughably.
deej
If the criteria is you have to win the WS every few years to appease the fans, then no GM would be good enough and the Yankees would be changing GMs every few years. And likely losing a lot for a decade.
Johnny Bravo
All rise Here comes the Judge San Francisco
G.M. Ima Scapegoat
I’m curious if judge is approaching it like cano. Is guaranteed years more important that total dollars/aav? Does some one blink and give him 10 yrs?
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GM, yes sir, the Yanks!
G.M. Ima Scapegoat
Hell I would of never thought a soon to be 40yr old pitcher would get $43 million so why not 12 lol.
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GM, you missed a good thread last night where Yankee Clip, Edp007 and myself were discussing such matters haha
Ma4170
Big difference on a 2 year deal vs. 9 or 10 though
giantsphan12
Surprise, surprise. Just get it done
sorrynotsorry
Giants need to assemble a whole team, not just one guy to eat up the entire payroll. Unless there’s jelly on that pay roll.
Kapler's Coconut Oil
In what world would the Giants not doing anything else after signing Judge. They have the money for plenty of other moves
Buzz Killington
Yeah just take him. Don’t worry though we got Stanton still cuz Cashman is a genius.
gfan
I got a spare pen if you need it Aaron.
PinstripedPride
Let me guess, it’s a 9 year/$360 million offer and SanFran will pay him $40 million AAV. Woof that’s a lot of money.
youngliam
By the end of those 9 years it will probably look pretty cheap compared to the contracts that will be going out at that time. That always seems to be the case.
RobM
The deals always do look cheaper at the end, but they don’t look cheap at any price when the player collapses. Judge likely will be cut from either the Giants or Yankees the last couple years if one of them gives him a 10-year deal.
casorgreener
Miggy’s deal doesn’t look cheap now. Neither will Judge’s
CravenMoorehead
Aaron Judge Yankee jerseys going on clearance soon lmao
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Craven I see more like bonfire in that scenario..
CravenMoorehead
Let’s be honest here, Brian Cashman is an absolute clown. The Yankees leaking that initial Judge contract offer pissed him off and it’s looking like he’s about to leave and I don’t blame him. Cashman is an incompetent and overrated GM and Hal Steinbrenner is a cuck for extending that jabroni for another 4 years.
RobM
There is exactly a zero percent chance that the Yankees revealing their offer will have any impact on Judge’s decision. This is about getting the most money.
CravenMoorehead
Not according to the article that just came out Rob….
“We kind of said, ‘Hey, let’s keep this between us,” Judge told TIME after being named Athlete of the Year by the magazine. “I was a little upset that the numbers came out. I understand it’s a negotiation tactic. Put pressure on me. Turn the fans against me, turn the media on me. That part of it I didn’t like.”
google.com/amp/s/www.foxnews.com/sports/aaron-judg…
RobM
But all these things are leaks from Judge’s camp to get the best offer. I read that earlier. It’s funny, the article includes the quote from his now wife about wearing a SF Giants uniform and saying he hopes that doesn’t get out, but it got out because Judge and his agents let it out!
If he gets upset by a minor negotiating tactic that he was told they were going to do enough to leave his current team, then I’d suggest he’s not a very strong man. We know that he is an emotionally strong man. It’s just the type of stuff the media loves to play up, the agents like to leak, and the fans love to eat up. Oh, yeah. It’s a negotiating tactic by Judge. Will the Yankees be upset and refuse to sign him because of Judge’s negotiating tactics?
In the end, he is going to play for the team he wants to play for. It will have nothing to do with a negotiating tactic from nine months back.
Yankee Clipper
If he does go, he will pack Yankee Stadium one last time – opening day 2023, when he reappears with the Giants. Then the booes will be the entire stadium.
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Hahahahahaha “pack Yankee stadium one last time”
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Clip, @baseballpun mentioned below about them holding out for Shohei…Dare I ask how that possibility strikes you my friend?
RobM
I’m not Clip, nor do I play him on the internet, but Ohtani has always been a Yankee target. They had Eppler shadow him for YEARS when Eppler was with the Yankees. That personal relationship certainly didn’t hurt the Angels landing Shohei when he finally came over, although I still believe he wanted the West Coast more than the East Coast. If so, Eppler being on the Angels probably helped them compared to the Dodgers, Padres, Giants and Mariners. So, yeah, the Yankees will be all in on Ohtani if they lose Judge, or Soto the year after. Perhaps, however, the Eppler relationship will once again enable a different team, this time a different NY team, to land Ohtani.
Yankee Clipper
Trumbo: I believe RobM said it best, sir.
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Clip I always knew you looked like a “Rob.”
Yankee Clipper
Haha! Like where your head is at, my friend. Rob is the best of us though. I wouldn’t even try to mimic him. He also happens to have the same initials as the baseball commissioner………
RobM
I’m just Clip’s PR agent!
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Yeah I noticed Rob’s posts a while back and realized the same. He comes in strong consistently. A gamer.
CravenMoorehead
I’m just an absolute lunatic
88dodgers
Take the deal.
Logjammer D"Baggagecling
I really wish we could post gifs on here. I have the perfect one for this comment.
Dodgeball
White bribes Peter with 100k. Dodgeball? 100k? Take the deal. Paraphrasing
Mario93
That’s what Cashman gets for low balling Judge last season, and then leaking the negotiations to the media. Clowns in New York make it seem like “it’s the best absolute place to play in baseball”. Why? They haven’t won a World Series in god knows how many years. Also boo their players who hit over 60 home runs for them.
Go boo the Stanton’s and Cole’s of the world, talk about being ungrateful. “Oh, well New York is the best place to play in baseball” says who? People from New York? I’m sure Judge wouldn’t mind being a super start in San Francisco as well where they’d do nothing but cheer for the guy. While giving him all the money in the world to play for a great organization where he’s actually from.
baseballpun
Yanks should let him walk and back up the truck for Ohtani next year.
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Baseballpun, intriguing idea..
baseballpun
If I’m prepared to spend $400m on Judge, I’d rather spend $500m to get a DH and and Ace.
PLINKO
Let him sign anywhere besides the Yankees so they futher bury themselves into the abyss of the AL East
Fat Lever
Explain how winning the division qualifies as burying themselves further into the abyss of the AL East.
Dreg
Please sign in SF and break Bonds HR record.
Signed the soul of Baseball
Manfred’s playing with the balls
Frisco has to overpay players to come play there. No one wants to play for that 3rd or 4th place team next year
Awesom-O
Not a giants fan, but theyve won three World Series very recently. This has to be a parody post coming from an a’s fan.
BigFred
Eight years ago.
goob
OK, A’sfaninDiapers. 🙂
foppert
Players are tripping over themselves in the rush to get to the A’s.
mattwild1
A’s fan btw
2012orioles
What’s the pulse in Yankees universe on Judge? I’d assume most want him to stay
Yankee Clipper
Yes, that’s accurate.
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HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAH
legionofms
Mariners gonna come out of nowhere and sign him to 10 years 385m.
Bank on it!
Skell 2
It will be comical to watch these contracts unfold in a few years. Not one of them will pan out beneficial.
stroh
Totally agree. Particularly the years…….anything over 5 is hugely suspect.
ruckus727
He’s getting 10/$380M-$$400M
gfan
64k per at bat.
Would work for me.
stroh
Insane. But if Trea Turner can get $300M, Judge is certainly worth 20% more.
Gator Bait
So with these numbers out there this FA period, I am starting to think Soto made a mistake turning down the contract he was offered. I think it was $440 million, not sure he sees that number again.
LouWhitakerHOF
Another one wrong for me. I had him returning to the Yankees. Never thought he would leave that tiny park for the big boys park in San Fran. But money talks$$$$$$
SFBay314
Judge to SF on 10 years $400M
PKVA
That was my original guess during the season!!! Let’s go Giants!!!!
frugalfarhan
Can’t wait to see Judge break Bonds’ single season walk record next year! Bonds at least had Kent, Snow, and Aurelia around him where Judge will have nothin but scrubs to protect him.
ChuckyNJ
If the Judge gets a contract for 9 or 10 years, it won’t be from the Giants. That ballclub is located in California — where state law limits personal services contracts to 7 years.
Jean Matrac
So I guess the Angels with Trout, LAD with Betts, SD with Tatis and Machado, etc., are all breaking the law?
SupremeZeus
Order of the Coif ↑ lol
goob
@SupremeZeus
Googled it. LOL!
WSC’s since ‘62 PHI 2 ATL 2 NYM 2
@Chucky, Machado has a 10 year deal in San Diego and Betts has a 12 year deal in LA.
fred-3
No way a smart man like Farhan Zaidi thinks this is a good idea
scottn59c
How much higher might SF have to go? He would have signed already if this offer gets it done.
fljay73
Come on Yankees step up & offer the man 9 years at $50mil per! 😉
Ancient Pistol
You must be a competitor in the AL East.
fljay73
Maybe maybe not 😉
SupremeZeus
Cashman has been pushing below market offers every step of the way. Yankees should be embarrassed. They can’t afford not to sign him. To land any premier FA you will be required to overpay. Ole cash will be coming hat to Judge very soon. Pathetic.
RetiredWarVet
Serious question to the veteran posters; if the Yankees don’t sign Judge, do they focus on getting away from a heavy right-handed hitting lineup using the money that would have gone to Judge? Would Conforto be an option? Interested in seeing what you have to say?
YourDreamGM
They will spend at least up to the tax. Will get a outfielder. Nimmo could be a fit. Better yet Reynolds. Fans will be disappointed if not irate but likely they are better off spending 350 400 million elsewhere.
RetiredWarVet
Thanks for replying! I appreciate it!
The_M4N
First, and more important, what branch?
Here is how I feel. If the Yanks are going to give Judge that massive contract, I’d prefer to see them going all in NOW. This team needs a lot of pieces and Judge alone does not make them a championship team. If the Yanks are not going all in, I’d rather they let him walk.
RetiredWarVet
Thanks for your reply! I appreciate it!
USAF career (1987-2007)! I built bombs in my initial career field (AMMO–IYAAYAS) and built war plans in my final career field. I’m also a Desert Shield and Desert Storm veteran (1990-1991)!
biffpocoroba
Thank you for your service.
The_M4N
From one vet to another, thank you.
PKVA
If we (the Giants…yes I am part of the WE) land Judge, Yankees may come back next year and make Ohtani the highest paid player in history….Giants may be on that as well next year…
RetiredWarVet
Thanks for replying! I appreciate it!
RobM
Judge will go where he wants to play. We simply don’t know if that is! San Francisco or New York? What he is doing is leveraging the two teams against each other to get the most money he can from his preferred destination.
Judge’s camp is doing an excellent job of leaking information and every leak seems to be designed to get the Yankees increase their offer. Is that an indication of his preferred destination, or simply he’s using the Yankees to get as much as he can from the Giants? Have no idea. He’s had a poker face throughout.
nostocksjustbonds
So if Judge was upset that the Yankees leaked the preseason offer, won’t he also be upset the Giants offer has been leaked?
YourDreamGM
He shouldn’t be upset at the low ball offer that fans and media took his side on. Shouldn’t be upside at this leak as all it could do is get him bigger offers.
jolink65
Not many people took his side on that. Most people around here agreed that the offer they made him was more than fair at the time given his body of work to that point. He went out and had a record year, which upped the price. I’d also expect him to “regress” more to his career averages going forward, which has to be factored in to contract offers as well. His averages are still great, but I don’t see him having the same kind of year he had again.
YourDreamGM
Most Yankee fans I know (unfortunately it’s a lot) desperately wished he would have taken that offer but respected that he was willing to bet on himself and it didn’t take them long to realize that he was right. The ones that though the low 200 and some was a over pay are now rooting for them to pay him 350 400.
PKVA
Well the Yankees lowballing him in spring training is a lot more pertinent than the Giants offer being leaked (making him potentially the highest paid player in MLB history while the Yankees offer was not even close originally) likely on the day Judge is likely to decide is probably not the same comparison…
Mikenmn
Judge has the right to make whatever the market can bear. The Yankees likely won’t be as good without him. But that level contract is potentially a stupendous albatross. Maybe they say no.
snowyphile1
He earned it.
Central Valley
Sounds like this is all ownership, not Farhan.
looseouttaturn2
This will be all over tomorrow!!
Wilmer the Thrillmer
It boils down to whether Judge prefers the relatively stress free fan and media market of San Francisco or whether he prefers the way more intense fan and media market in New York.
He already is a media darling in New York and the Yankees als0 have his close friends Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo which in my opinion could be a bigger factor.
Does Judge want to go down in history as one of the all time great Yankees along with Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio, Mantle and Jeter or one of the greatest San Francisco Giants alongs with Mays, McCovey, Cepeda, Bonds and Posey?
Can’t go wrong either way but I give the Yankees the edge.
RobM
He has the legacy aspect as a Yankee. He’s built that foundation through his 20s to position himself to one day join Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio, Mantle and Jeter. For the Giants, the pressure starts with his 1st AB. Everything he’s done before as a Yankee will be meaningless as a Giant. He has to build a legacy he already has as a Yankee. No guarantee he can do that as a Giant in his 30s. His legacy could be an albatross contract.
PKVA
unless that Yankee myth means nothing to him. I am not saying it does not but I dont know him. And as I said previously above, there will be zero.zero pressure on Judge.. We have three World Series, the fan base is satisfied. We just want to have someone to see when we go to the park or put on the game…
Datashark
9 years til age 39!!! SF will have a huge ball and chain after age 35
This reeks of signing a guy after contract year to reel in the $$$ then flop after sometime.
I hope he passes on SFG unless there are multiple club option years
John Bird
I love reading all these posters that believe everywhere west of the Hudson is some third world hellscape and that being captain of the Yankees is somehow worth $60 mil. Or that a team that won 106 games two years ago is a dumpster fire. They had a down year last year and still finished at .500. And even if they sign Judge they still have plenty of money. Likely the team that signs him will make the playoffs and the team that doesn’t won’t.
RobM
Nah. If the Yankees don’t sign Judge, they’ll pivot and make several other moves. They won’t be sexy. They won’t put people in the seats individually, but they’ll put a winning team on the field and that draws fans, and eventually they’ll make new stars, just as they did with Judge. Losing Judge might even force the Yankees to turn to players like Volpe, Peraza and Dominquez more quickly, just as they turned to Severino, Judge, Sanchez, Montgomery several years back. I’m not sure what the Giants move will be if they lost Judge since they seem a bit desperate here. That’s working to Judge’s advantage no matter where he lands.
JackStrawb
The Giants (unlike Cashman) would have had Plans B through X drawn up months ago. It’s just the way Zaidi does business.
I think you’re right, in any case. The Yankees don’t have much choice except to speed up the ascension of their prospects.
John Bird
Correa’s next on their target list if they don’t sign Judge. They are 90 mil. below the tax line so there are plenty of options. SS, OFx2, SP, maybe C,
Yanks2
Damaged goods. Pass. No thanks. Ellsbury 2.0
Rsox
The Giants won a championship with guys like Aubrey Huff, Juan Uribe, Nate Schierholtz, Andres Torres, Pat Burrell, Jose Guillen, Cody Ross, and Aaron Rowand playing significant roles. To say that the Giants can’t win with what they have is silly. Judge just signing with the Giants would be a massive morale boost moving forward
JackStrawb
@Rsox Judge alone also boosts a ,.500 team into the postseason, most likely, in a 3 wildcard postseason setup.
User 1580013680
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goob
As FA’s continue to trickle off the board, doesn’t Judge have to start thinking about who’s gonna still be available to whichever team he signs with? Because I’d assume he’ll want that team to keep adding talent. But even with an open checkbook, they’ll need to decide exactly where to allocate those remaining resources – hopefully with as many choices as possible still in play.
snowyphile1
Giants fans would welcome Aaron.