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Was Brad Hand Good Or Lucky Last Year?

By Darragh McDonald | February 2, 2023 at 10:27am CDT

There seems to be a holdup in the market for left-handed relievers. Though pitchers like Taylor Rogers and Matt Strahm have signed deals, others like Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore and Zack Britton are still out there. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently wrote about the situation, listing 10 clubs that were interested in that trio of available lefties. But that means at least seven clubs will miss out on that group and will need to consider other options, with one of those being Brad Hand.

Hand, 33 in March, had a dominant run in the second half of the last decade but seems to have aged into a different kind of pitcher in the past few years. From 2016 to 2020, he made 306 appearances with a 2.70 ERA, striking out 33.3% of batters faced while walking 8.1% and getting ground balls at a solid 41.2% clip. That strikeout rate was third among relievers with at least 250 innings in that time, trailing only Edwin Diaz and Kenley Jansen.

Those punchouts got away from him in 2021, as his rate dropped all the way down to 21.9%. He kept his ERA at a respectable 3.90 for the season, though was clearly not at the same level as years prior. He signed with the Phillies for 2022 and saw his rate stats continue in the wrong direction, though with better results overall. He tossed 45 innings last year, striking out just 19.2% of opponents and walking 11.6% of them. However, he was able to find ways to limit the overall damage and finished the year with a 2.80 ERA.

Whether that limiting of damage was skill or luck is a matter of debate. Hand’s batting average on balls in play last year was 2.71, slightly better than his .284 career mark and the .289 league average last year. It’s a similar situation with his strand rate, which was 75.9% last year, just ahead of the 72.6% league average and his 73.6% career rate. That perhaps points to a bit of good fortune, and advanced metrics were unanimous in thinking Hand deserved worse, such as a 3.93 FIP, 4.40 xERA and 4.51 SIERA. He also only allowed two home runs on the year, a difficult feat to repeat.

But it does seem as though Hand is doing something to keep hitters off balance. Among the 444 pitchers with 100 or more batted ball events last year, Hand’s average exit velocity of 87.2 mph came in 93rd. His rate of barrel per BBE was 88th, barrels per plate appearance 77th, while his 26.9% hard hit rate was fourth. In that latter category, he trailed only Lucas Luetge, Brusdar Graterol and Caleb Thielbar, and was just ahead of Devin Williams, Jason Adam, Ryan Tepera and Tyler Anderson.

This all might hinge on his slider, which is his primary pitch. He’s thrown it more than any other pitch in each season since 2017, per Statcast data. He used to get huge swing-and-miss numbers off it, with a whiff rate over 40% in three straight years from 2017 to 2019. However, that dipped to 38.6% in 2020 and then 27.9% and 22% over the past two seasons. That lack of whiffs hasn’t translated into more significant contact, however. The pitch had a hard hit rate of 29.5% in 2019 but he lowered that to 16.9% in 2022. Opponents hit just .222 against the pitch last year and slugged .321, with Hand using the slider 52.1% of the time.

It’s perhaps a function of the diminished power he has on the pitch, which he threw in the 81-85 mph range from 2016 to 2019 but has been more 79-80 in the past three years. It also has a bit less spin, as he got his RPM up to 2629 in 2017 but has dropped in subsequent years, with 2022’s spin rate coming in at 2282 RPM. That’s resulted in missing fewer bats but hitters aren’t doing much damage when they do make contact.

With less whiffs, Hand’s contact rate has naturally gone up in kind. While batters made contract on 71% of his pitches from 2016-2020, it’s been 81.7% in the past two years. But it seems as though that extra contact is coming outside the strike zone. His Z-contact rate was 82.4% during those prime years and ticked up to 87% over the past two. But his O-contact rate, for pitches outside the zone, jumped to 71% in the past two seasons after being at 53.6% in his peak years. Hitters are swinging at those pitches outside the zone a bit less, which correlates with Hand’s increased walk rate last year, but it’s possible hitters are just turning some of Hand’s whiffs into weak contact.

What teams will have to decide is whether Hand has been making this happen or merely getting away with something. He’s been working with diminished stuff in recent years but has found ways to avoid disaster, with that 3.90 ERA in 2021 and 2.80 last year. Pitching to contact is a risky proposition but Hand has found ways to make it work. The upcoming ban on defensive shifts could theoretically make it even more risky, though Hand only pitched in front of a shifted defense 20.8% of the time last year, below the 33.6% league average. If metrics like FIP, xERA and SIERA are right, he’s due for some regression, but he’s kept his ERA below those numbers two years in a row now. Perhaps he’d be best suited to a club that has strong faith in its defense and pitcher-friendly ballpark, with the Cardinals jumping out as a nice fit. But his market has been quiet this winter and Spring Training kicks off in just over a week.

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Free Agent Profiles MLBTR Originals Brad Hand

The Opener: Darwinzon, Mariners, Player Chat
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Mariners Notes: Left Field, Brash, Rotation
View Comments (52)

Comments

  1. Four4fore

    2 months ago

    I don’t think that the Cardinals can trust Cabrera and should really consider Hand or Chafin.

    Reply
    • MannyBeingMVP

      2 months ago

      “A Hand with the Birds is worth two of Matt Bush”.

      Reply
      • BlueSkies_LA

        2 months ago

        A cheep shot.

        Reply
    • Yankee Clipper

      2 months ago

      You guys are Chafin me with all these jokes.

      Reply
  2. BlueSkies_LA

    2 months ago

    It’s always good to be lucky,

    Reply
    • rondon

      2 months ago

      Every player has those lucky or unlucky seasons. Since Chaffin and Moore are wanting 18-19 mill over 2 years thanks to the Phils overpay for Strahm. I’m thinking the Cubs would be a sneaky good place for Hand to land. They’ve done a great job of reviving pitchers, (specifically relief pitchers) over the last several seasons and revived their careers. Chaffin was actually one of them.

      Reply
  3. Brixton

    2 months ago

    He was definitely not lock down caliber last year. Hes a solid middle reliever, but he was at best the #6 arm out of a good not great phillies pen

    Reply
    • Saskatchewan Jaysfan

      2 months ago

      He was awful in his short time in Toronto(2021). All I know is that he wouldn’t last long in the A.L.East, and only a team with favorable pitching dimensions should be interested in him.

      Reply
  4. mrperkins

    2 months ago

    We (as a Cardinals fan) just had a formerly dominant lefty that tried to work with diminished skills. Don’t want Andrew Miller #2. This coming off of Brett Cecil as well.

    Reply
  5. VonPurpleHayes

    2 months ago

    He was solid for much of the year, but he wasn’t trustworthy down the stretch.

    Reply
    • WampumWalloper

      2 months ago

      @Von
      If that is a reason why the Phillies would stay away from Hand, why in the world would they sign Taijuan Walker who has had two consecutive seasons of being untrustworthy down the stretch ?

      Reply
      • VonPurpleHayes

        2 months ago

        @WampunWalloper Because the Mets completely relied on Walker when their old and injured starters went down. He was pretty much their number 1 or 2 starter for half the year. Exhaustion burned him out. Phillies will be using him as a #4 (likely in a 6th man rotation) with much more rest, and the hope is the 2nd-half results improve based on that. Will it work? Who knows?

        Reply
        • all in the suit that you wear

          2 months ago

          Unrelated question: Why did Jamison Taillon supposedly turn down the Phillies and sign with the Cubs for less money? I read that Walker signed the deal that was turned down by Taillon.

        • VonPurpleHayes

          2 months ago

          I didn’t see that Taillon turned down anything from the Phils, but I do like the Taillon deal slightly better than the Ealker one. So win for the Cubbies I suppose.

        • jbigz12

          2 months ago

          Taijuan Walker wasn’t exactly a horse with 157 and 159 innings in the last 2 years…….

      • GopherPA

        2 months ago

        Walker’s second half stats from 2022 look worse than they actually are because of one game in August where he gave up 8 ER in 1.0 IP (he then exited the game with an injury). His September numbers were pretty similar to his May-July numbers.

        Reply
  6. deweybelongsinthehall

    2 months ago

    Brad Hand is a pitcher, not a thrower. Plain and simple. I’m not saying he’ll be great this season but his approach is old school. You adapt and change as you get older. A reliever should be measured primarily on rounds allowed including runs inherited. Did he keep the team in the game? Era doesn’t always tell the story if he allows runs in that are charged to someone else. Holds are crucial for a team’s success.

    Reply
    • This one belongs to the Reds

      2 months ago

      ERA is a lot of times pretty useless in judging relievers effectiveness for a lot of the reasons you mentioned above. With the three batter minimum, they might control their fate a little better than when many were a loogy, but it is still true.

      Reply
      • deweybelongsinthehall

        2 months ago

        I still say limit the staff to 11 pitchers and then there’s no need for a three batter minimum.

        Reply
        • This one belongs to the Reds

          2 months ago

          I don’t think that would fly with the MLBPA.

  7. This one belongs to the Reds

    2 months ago

    Pitching is usually a combination of both.

    Reply
  8. deGrom Texas Ranger

    2 months ago

    Both

    Reply
    • Yankee Clipper

      2 months ago

      Whether good, lucky, or both, he played the Hand he was dealt…

      Reply
      • deGrom Texas Ranger

        2 months ago

        He would be nice to have on Hand in the bullpen, regardless.

        Reply
        • Yankee Clipper

          2 months ago

          Well, My comment was off-Hand, but yours is appropriate.

        • Monkey’s Uncle

          2 months ago

          This thread is quickly getting out of Hand.

        • Yankee Clipper

          2 months ago

          Should we ask for a Hand in moderating this thread then?

        • BlueSkies_LA

          2 months ago

          Thumb might want that.

  9. Lyman Bostock

    2 months ago

    Very weird how all these lefty relievers are still out there. It’s not like they seem to be trying to break the bank either. There have been aggressive spending teams such as the Mets and Rangers amongst others, who have clear lefty bullpen arm needs.

    Anyone have any idea why they haven’t been picked up yet? Just seems really weird to me.

    Reply
    • This one belongs to the Reds

      2 months ago

      I agree. If I were a smart GM (and actually had that job) I would have scooped up a couple. Then again, I am a proponent of a strong bullpen. A lot of teams treat it as an afterthought.

      Reply
    • InsertWittyName

      2 months ago

      I may be wrong but I wonder if it’s the number of years the players want rather than the AAV?

      Reply
    • mlb1225

      2 months ago

      Matt Strahm set the market price for LHP relievers very high, according to Ken Rosenthal. He’s getting 2 yrs/$15 million ($7.5 mil. AAV) despite never having been a super consistent LHP reliever, or high-leverage arm.

      Reply
      • This one belongs to the Reds

        2 months ago

        What these agents (and I think it is more them than the players they represent) have failed to realize is just because one idiot owner gives out a crazy contract, that doesn’t mean the others are going to follow suit.

        I think it is this more than anything else that has so many still unemployed at this late date.

        Reply
        • mlb1225

          2 months ago

          I agree, and I think Strahm is overpaid. Nearly $8 million for a upper-tier middle reliever is a bit steep, even if he is left-handed. But if one agent/pitcher were able to negotiate that, the rest are going to ask for a similar price, at least as a starting point in negotiations.

      • thickiedon

        2 months ago

        Strahm was vocal prior to FA about wanting to start somewhere. That might’ve had something to do with his value versus others

        Reply
        • mlb1225

          2 months ago

          So he signed with the Phillies? Not saying he will never start a game in Philadelphia, but they have Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Walker, with Bailey Falter or Cristpher Sanchez in the five-hole until one of Able, Painter, or McGarry are ready. If he was looking to start, then surely another team would give him a better opportunity for starts.

  10. CravenMoorehead

    2 months ago

    Did ok for the Hand he was dealt

    Reply
    • geg42

      2 months ago

      Mr. Hand’s issue that aloha means both hello and goodbye

      Reply
  11. RunDMC

    2 months ago

    Hand got lucky!

    Reply
    • Lyman Bostock

      2 months ago

      This is turning into a Reddit thread. Which isn’t always a good thing

      Reply
  12. Fooque2

    2 months ago

    Luck

    Reply
  13. LosPobres1904

    2 months ago

    He (hand) was good with the Padres many moons ago

    Reply
  14. thickiedon

    2 months ago

    The “How come they” vs “Why not them” seems like “they” had more potential and Strahm has strong interest in starting vs “them” are older, declining, coming off of injuries, demanding too much money/years or prefer playing in a specific region. Makes sense to me

    Reply
  15. PaulyMidwest

    2 months ago

    He isn’t the dominant pitcher he used to be but is definitely still worth a spot in the bullpen. I would prefer Chafin, Moore or Will Smith personally but won’t be mad if the cubs settle on Hand as a cheaper option.

    Reply
  16. LFGMets (Metsin7)

    2 months ago

    Would love for the Mets to sign him. They need a reliable lefty. Don’t understand why they didnt resign him last year

    Reply
  17. DarkSide830

    2 months ago

    He was good and lucky. That said, he was closer to “very lucky” than “very good”.

    Reply
  18. HALfromVA

    2 months ago

    Plenty of teams out that could use a hand with their bullpen.

    Reply
  19. deGrom Texas Ranger

    2 months ago

    Will Smith would also be a nice, fearsome addition to the mound. He has anger issues and tends to hit guys because of it.

    Reply
    • Yankee Clipper

      2 months ago

      Yeah, he does tend to hit guys. I saw when he slapped Chris Rock.

      Reply
  20. philliesfan215

    2 months ago

    Numbers might show he was good last year, but he probably made me the most uncomfortable of all our relievers all year long. I don’t feel he was that dominant at all.

    Reply
    • LosPobres1904

      2 months ago

      He did us a favor during the NLCS

      Reply
  21. BenBenBen

    2 months ago

    Surely there are more suitors for this free agent than St. Louis, or is this transaction-focused site just trying to compete with Fangraphs (and not very well, I might add) with their original content when they could be doing something unique?

    Reply

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