Free Agent Profiles

Free Agent Profile: Franmil Reyes

By Darragh McDonald | January 10, 2023 at 8:26pm CDT

Franmil Reyes had a solid four-year run from 2018 through 2021. He struck out at an unhealthy 29.5% rate, but he also walked in 9% of his plate appearances. He hit 92 home runs in 529 games and produced a batting line of .260/.325/.503. That production was 19% above league average, as evidenced by his 119 wRC+, a figure that placed him in the top 65 among qualified league hitters. He was also fairly consistent, with his wRC+ never slipping below 111 in any season of that stretch and topping out at 129.

He qualified for arbitration for the first time after that 2021 season and agreed to a $4.55MM salary with the Guardians. Unfortunately, his consistent offensive production got away from him for the first time in 2022. His strikeout rate ticked up to 33.2% while his walk rate dipped to 6.3%. His power also seemed to diminish, as he hit just 14 home runs on the year after being around a 30-per-year pace in the earlier portion of his career. He finished the season with a slash line of .221/.273/.365 and a wRC+ of 80, indicating he was 20% below the league average hitter.

That swoon at the plate was untenable for a player like Reyes since his bat is his only carrying tool. He doesn’t bring anything in the speed or defense departments. He has managed six stolen bases in his career but his sprint speed was in the 20th percentile among qualified players last year. Defensively, he got over 500 innings in the outfield in 2018 and 2019 but got poor results and has been sent out to the grass less often recently. He spent less than 100 innings out there in both 2021 and 2022.

Given his one-dimensional profile, he needs to be clicking at the plate to be valuable. His struggles were strong enough last year that the Guardians put him on waivers in August. The Cubs put in a claim and let him play out the string for them, but he was outrighted at season’s end and elected free agency.

There’s no denying that the 2022 season was rough, but it’s possible it was merely a blip. He still clobbered the ball despite his struggles, with Statcast placing him in the 92nd percentile in terms of average exit velocity last year. He also ranked in the 85th percentile in terms of maximum exit velocity, 79th in hard hit rate and 80th in terms of barrel rate. It seems the tools are still there for some team that can find a better way of utilizing them.

It’s possible that the league changed its plan of attack against Reyes. According to Statcast, 33.7% of the pitches he saw in 2021 were breaking balls. That shot up to 40% in 2022, with fastballs and offspeed pitches coming across less often. Reyes posted a batting average of .219 against those breaking pitches in 2021 with a .521 slugging percentage, but those numbers dropped to .191 and .321 last year.

That change in approach could have been responsible for his increased strikeouts. His chase percentage went from 25.8% to 28.4%. Not only did he chase more, he did worse when he did. His chase contact rate went from 49.5% in 2021 to to just 36% last year. That came despite the fact that 50.4% of the pitches he saw were in the zone, a slight increase from the 48.1% rate of the year before. He also went up hacking throughout the year as his first pitch swing rate went to 34.5%, a few ticks above his 30% rate from the year before and the 29.5% league average. Perhaps he was getting more breaking balls to begin at-bats or he merely went up looking to smash a fastball before he got deeper into the count. Pitchers also threw 61.3% of first pitches in the zone, an uptick on the 55.4% clip from the year before. So, more first-pitch strikes, more first-pitch swings, but more strikeouts and less power.

While all this led to a pretty gloomy year for Reyes, it’s possible that he could adjust to this new plan of attack and get back to the hitter he was before. As mentioned, the tools still seem to be there in terms of crushing the ball. If he can alter his approach and get his strikeouts down a few points, it’s possible he could again be a feared middle-of-the-order slugger. The fact that Reyes is primarily a designated hitter surely limits his market, but there could still be fits. Even if Reyes can’t find a full-time job, serving as a bench bat and/or the short side of a platoon could be an option. He was equally poor against both righties and lefties in 2022 but has been stronger with the platoon advantage over his career, posting a 125 wRC+ against southpaws and a 104 otherwise.

For a rebuilding team like the Reds, they have a handful of lefties in their corner outfield/designated hitter mix, including TJ Friedl and Jake Fraley. While Joey Votto is questionable for Opening Day, that might leave first base open for players like Wil Myers and Tyler Stephenson, perhaps leaving some at-bats for Reyes. The Tigers currently have a strongly left-handed outfield with Austin Meadows, Riley Greene, Akil Baddoo and Kerry Carpenter all hitting from that side. Adding Reyes would further squeeze out Miguel Cabrera in what could be his final season, but he’s probably not ticketed for full-time duty anyway. The Rangers don’t really have a strict designated hitter right now, with Mitch Garver potentially playing there when healthy and not catching. Otherwise, left-hander Brad Miller and his career 67 wRC+ against lefties could be the frontrunner. The Diamondbacks have a lot of lefties and added Evan Longoria as a veteran righty. He’ll likely be DHing while splitting third base with Josh Rojas, but one injury elsewhere on the diamond means they’re both ticketed for everyday infield duty. The A’s have very few players locked into jobs, and some of their most-established guys are lefties like Seth Brown, Tony Kemp and Jace Peterson.

Nelson Cruz, another bat-only player, recently said he had received offers for 2023. He has a more impressive track record than Reyes but he’s going to turn 43 in the upcoming season and is also coming off a down year. Reyes will be turning 28 in July and shouldn’t cost much. He was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an arbitration salary of $6MM before being cut loose by the Cubs. The fact that Reyes cleared waivers and was outrighted suggests that no one wanted him at that price point and he could be signed for something beneath that figure. He could also be retained via arbitration for 2024 in the event he has a bounceback season, since he’s currently between four and five years of MLB service time. He even has options and could be sent down to the minors, though players who reach five years of service can’t be optioned without their consent. Reyes is at 4.115 and would cross that five-year threshold after a couple of months in the majors, since a new “year” starts at 172 days.

Free Agent Profile: Brian Anderson

By Darragh McDonald | January 4, 2023 at 8:05pm CDT

Brian Anderson had a really solid run for the Marlins from 2018 through 2020. In that three-year period, he hit 42 home runs while walking in nine percent of his trips to the plate and striking out in 21.8 percent of them. His batting line in that stretch was .266/.350/.436, good enough for a wRC+ of 115, indicating that he was 15 percent better than the league average hitter.

Defensively, Anderson had very brief appearances at first and second base but split most of his time between third base and right field. His work at the hot corner was graded well by advanced defensive metrics, as he posted five Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved in that time, along with a 2.8 mark from Ultimate Zone Rating. In right field, OAA gave him a -4 mark, but he posted 6 DRS and a 7.2 UZR.

When his above-average offense was paired with that quality defense, he was worth 7.2 wins above replacement, according to the calculations of FanGraphs. That mark was in the top 60 among position players. For the Marlins, who were trading away their star players at this time, Anderson’s 7.2 fWAR from 2018-20 was easily the best on the squad. In a distant second was J.T. Realmuto, who posted 4.8 fWAR in 2018 alone before getting traded to the Phillies prior to the 2019 campaign.

The last couple of years, however, have been a struggle for Anderson. Health has played a significant factor, as he’s made multiple trips to the injured list in each of the two most recent seasons. In 2021, he only played 67 games while heading to the IL due to a left oblique strain and twice due to a left shoulder subluxation. His batting line slipped to .249/.337/.378 and a wRC+ of 98. Last year, he played 98 games, missing time due to a stint on the COVID-IL as well as going to the traditional IL for lower back spasms and a left shoulder sprain. His offense dipped even further, finishing the year at .222/.311/.346 (90 wRC+).

The Marlins could have retained Anderson for one more season via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting a salary of $5.2MM. But based on Anderson’s diminished performance in the past couple of years, they non-tendered him instead. Presumably, the Marlins contacted the other 29 clubs before this move to see if anyone else was interested in acquiring Anderson at that price point. The fact that a deal didn’t come together suggests that no club was willing to both pay Anderson a salary in that range and also give Miami something of value on top of that.

Even though he’s been injured the past couple of seasons, there are still some good signs under the hood. Anderson’s maximum exit velocity was 112 mph in 2022. That’s a couple of ticks below 2018-19, when he was able to get into the 113-115 range, but it was still enough to get him into the 81st percentile among qualified hitters last year. He was also in the 65th percentile in terms of barrel rate and 61st in terms of hard-hit rate.

His strikeout rate has been on the high side over the past few years but his walk rate has stayed fairly steady. He has a 9.3% walk rate for his career and has been at 9.7% over the past couple of seasons even while struggling in other areas. While not a huge stolen base threat, his sprint speed was in the 53rd percentile in 2022, so he’s at least an average runner. On Statcast’s new arm strength leaderboard, Anderson is in the 99th percentile, with only five qualified players ahead of him. Even while banged up this year, he still demonstrated that there are some tools in his skill set.

That makes Anderson an interesting buy-low candidate at this late point of the offseason, with many of the top free agents having already signed. Yesterday, the Nats agreed to a deal with Dominic Smith, who was projected for a $4MM salary before being non-tendered by the Mets. Instead, he’ll get $2MM from Washington with a further $2MM available in incentives. Like Anderson, Smith struggled over the past two years but showed plenty of potential in the prior seasons. Perhaps Anderson could find himself a similar type of deal in the coming weeks.

The Tigers stand out as a particularly strong fit, since they non-tendered Jeimer Candelario and haven’t done anything to replace him at the hot corner thus far. They have some young players who could potentially take that spot, such as Ryan Kreidler, Kody Clemens or Zack Short. However, none of those players have really cemented themselves as surefire big leaguers yet, and Anderson could move to the outfield if they took a step forward this year. With Akil Baddoo and Austin Meadows looking to bounce back from frustrating seasons, Anderson could give them some cover in case either of those in-house options continue to struggle.

The Reds probably want to give Spencer Steer a chance to take over their third base job, but he has only 28 MLB games under his belt at this point. Anderson could provide a veteran alternative and also factor into their outfield mix if Steer takes off. It’s a similar situation in Texas, where the Rangers have Josh Jung penciled in at the hot corner despite the fact he’s played just 26 major league games. They also need help in left field and are about $12MM away from the lowest luxury tax threshold, making a low-cost addition like Anderson an intriguing solution. The Phillies have Alec Bohm at third, but he’s generally considered a poor defender. With Bryce Harper recovering from Tommy John surgery and no longer taking up the designated hitter slot, perhaps Bohm could move to first and bump Rhys Hoskins into the DH role.

Anderson could also fit on most teams in a part-time role off the bench, though platooning might not be a perfect plan. Anderson hits from the right side and was better against lefties in 2022, posting a 111 wRC+ against them compared to an 85 versus righties. However, he has reverse splits for his career, with a 93 wRC+ against southpaws and a 112 otherwise.

Health will likely be a big factor in Anderson’s market, since that has seemingly been hampering him over the past couple of years. But if he’s able to overcome his ailments and get back to the kind of player he was in 2018-20, there could be great value for a team paying him $5MM or less. Anderson was essentially on a three-WAR annual pace in that period, since he accrued 7.2 fWAR over two full seasons and the shortened 2020 campaign.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Free Agent Profile: Luke Voit

By Darragh McDonald | January 2, 2023 at 2:54pm CDT

The major league leader in home runs in 2020 was Yankee first baseman Luke Voit. He launched 22 homers in that season, shortened by the pandemic to just 60 games. No one else in baseball hit more than 19. He also cut his strikeout rate to 23.1%, just below that year’s league average, after being at 25% or above in his previous three seasons. He finished the year with a batting line of .277/.338/.610 for a wRC+ of 153, indicating he was 53% better than the league average hitter. That number placed him in the top 15 among all qualified hitters that season. He finished ninth in the voting for Most Valuable Player in the American League.

Voit still had four seasons of club control remaining and it seemed like the Yankees had first base figured out for years to come. However, Voit has since entered some choppy waters and has been thrown off course a few times. In 2021, he dealt with knee injuries for much of the year and was only able to play 68 games. He hit .239/.328/.437 when healthy enough to play, producing a wRC+ of 112. That was 12% above league average but a noticeable drop from his monster 2020 showing. His strikeout rate also climbed up to 30.7%. The Yankees acquired Anthony Rizzo at the trade deadline and then re-signed him for 2022, replacing Voit at the cold corner. A few days later, Voit was traded to the Padres.

In 2022, he was largely healthy, making one trip to the injured list in late April for a biceps tendon injury but returning just over two weeks later. However, it didn’t result in better production at the plate. In 82 games for the Friars, Voit launched 13 long balls but struck out in 32% of his appearances. His .225/.317/.416 batting line was above league average but only by 10%. At the deadline, he had the misfortune of getting thrown into the Juan Soto trade at the last minute when Eric Hosmer used his limited no-trade clause to keep himself out of it.

Voit spent the second half with the Nats, the worst team in baseball in 2022, and saw his production dip. He still hit another nine home runs in just 53 games but his walk rate slipped from 11.3% as a Padre to just 7.1% as a Nat. His time with Washington resulted in a .228/.295/.381 line and a wRC+ of 90. Voit was set to go through arbitration for the third of four trips this winter as a Super Two player, but the Nationals non-tendered him instead of paying him an $8.2MM salary, per projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Voit has now been a free agent for about six weeks without much noise surrounding his market. There have been no public reports about any club having interest in signing him. That’s not terribly shocking given his down year, but there are still things he can bring to the table. His Statcast metrics were still strong in 2022, as his barrel rate was in the 94th percentile among qualified hitters, his hard hit rate 73rd, maximum exit velocity 75th and average exit velocity 66th. Though he’s been striking out way too much in the past two seasons, he can still clobber the ball when he does make contact. It’s also possible he could get a boost from the upcoming bans on extreme defensive alignments, as he was one of the most-shifted hitters among the remaining free agents despite being right-handed. Voit actually has reverse splits for his career, with a 110 wRC+ against lefties and a 129 against righties. That could make platoon arrangements difficult but it also means he makes sense to be in a lineup on a regular basis.

Unfortunately, that’s about all he can really offer. He’s certainly not a burner, with his sprint speed in the 6th percentile and just a single stolen base on his career ledger. Defensively, he’s only played first base in the big leagues, apart from a single inning in right field in 2018. All three of Outs Above Average, Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating consider him to have been a below-average defender to this point in his career. He’ll turn 32 in February and is probably unlikely to suddenly turn things around in that department.

There are still some teams that could take a flier on Voit and hope that he looks more like the 2020 version than what he’s shown since. The best candidate would probably be a rebuilding team that would be hoping to turn Voit into a trade candidate on the heels of a resurgence. Since Voit has between four and five years of MLB service time, he could also be controlled for 2024 via arbitration, potentially adding to his appeal if he’s in a good groove. The A’s have Seth Brown at first base but he can also play the outfield. The Marlins are known to be looking for more offense but have the oft-injured Garrett Cooper as their first baseman at the moment. They reportedly pursued players like José Abreu, Justin Turner and Brandon Drury earlier in the offseason but came up short in those attempts. The Tigers will likely give Spencer Torkelson an extended run to show his terrible 2022 was just growing pains, but it would make some sense to have a backup plan in place. The Cubs and Orioles are known to be interested in first base upgrades, having been recently connected to Eric Hosmer.

Though there are plenty of theoretical fits, Voit will also have competition for those jobs. In addition to Hosmer, the free agent market features Trey Mancini, Yuli Gurriel, Brandon Belt, Dominic Smith and others.

Free Agent Profile: Andrew McCutchen

By Simon Hampton | January 1, 2023 at 7:38pm CDT

A busy month of December has seen the free agent cupboard mostly cleared out. Yet as we begin 2023 there are still a few interesting options on the open market for teams looking for upgrades heading into the new season. Of course, many teams will look to the trade market over the next month or two – particularly if they’re after impact options – but good deals can still be found in free agency.

One such player is a former MVP, who remains a threat at the plate and is well-regarded as a veteran presence in the clubhouse. Andrew McCutchen may not be the same player that went to five-straight All Star games with the Pirates, but he could still help a lot of teams. There was a report in early December that the Rays and Dodgers had interest in McCutchen, but it’s been quiet since. The Dodgers have since signed J.D. Martinez, which may rule them out, but the Rays could still feasibly have a spot for him.

McCutchen, 36, spent the past season with the Brewers on a one-year, $8MM deal. They’d signed him on the back of three years in Philadelphia, which culminated in McCutchen hitting .222/.334/.444 with 27 home runs over 574 plate appearances. It was a solid enough season, but what perhaps got Milwaukee’s attention was the way in which McCutchen torched left-handed pitching in 2021, slashing .293/.405/.622 in 195 plate appearances against southpaws. It was particularly pronounced in 2021, but McCutchen’s splits have favored hitting against left-handers over his career.

Unfortunately for the Brewers, it wasn’t the case in 2022. McCutchen would hit just .221/.303/.435 against left-handers in Milwaukee, contributing to an overall line of .237/.316/.384 overall line of 580 plate appearances. While his walk and strikeout rates have trended in the wrong direction in recent times, they were still reasonable marks, as he struck out 21.4% of the time against a 9.8% walk rate. That was good for a wRC+ of 98, a couple of ticks below the league average but the first time it had dipped below 100 in his career. He did enjoy a 262 plate appearance tear in the middle of the summer, where he crushed 11 home runs and hit at an .868 OPS. Of course, the fact that his overall season mark was well below that suggests there were some very lean runs in there as well.

Perhaps the biggest concern from McCutchen’s season was the drop in power. He slugged 27 home runs a year prior with the Phillies, but hit just 17 last season. American Family Field in Milwaukee is generally less favorable to home run hitters than Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, but it was still a significant drop in long balls. In McCutchen’s defense, his exit velocity and HardHit% were both roughly the same as a year earlier, so he’s still making plenty of solid contact.

On the defensive side of things, McCutchen has spent most of his time in the DH spot in recent years, but can still play the outfield, and enjoyed a bit of success there in 2022. He was worth 5 Defensive Runs Saved in a small sample of 268 1/3 innings, while he also spent a small amount of time in right and center. He did make 82 appearances in the DH spot and his days of being an everyday outfielder are probably over, but he’s by no means a liability in the field and his numbers in 2022 could encourage a new team to give him a larger workload in the field in 2023.

McCutchen will likely sign another one-year deal, quite possibly in the same range as the $8MM salary he took home in 2022. At this stage of free agency, most of the players available have some flaws, but McCutchen could still work as a solid option for a number of teams. He still has ~20 home run power, draws walks at a bit above the league average rate and doesn’t strike out too often. While he’s not likely to be a team’s everyday outfielder, he could shift around the corner outfield spots, making DH appearances and allowing teams to spell their starting outfielders on a regular basis. Further to that, McCutchen’s got a good clubhouse reputation and could perhaps work on a contending team with a slightly younger roster. While he’s unlikely to be a difference maker at this point, teams could do worse than bringing in the veteran to deepen their roster for the upcoming season.

Free Agent Profile: Adam Duvall

By Darragh McDonald | December 29, 2022 at 10:46am CDT

Thanks to a busy month of December, most of the top free agents from this offseason are off the board, assuming the Carlos Correa deal with the Mets eventually gets over the finish line. From MLBTR’s list of the top 50 free agents, only three remain unattached: Jurickson Profar, Andrew Chafin and Michael Wacha. That means that teams still looking for upgrades will have to sift through the remainders, looking for talent that other clubs have overlooked.

One interesting candidate who deserves a look is Adam Duvall, who hasn’t been written about on MLBTR since August. If any teams have interest in him, it hasn’t been leaked to the public yet. It’s not especially shocking that his market has been quiet to this point. His 2022 was cut short in July when he required season-ending wrist surgery. He also limped to a .213/.276/.401 line in the first few months of the season while striking out in 32.1% of his plate appearances. That production was 13% below league average, as indicated by his 87 wRC+.

That’s certainly not an ideal platform for a trip into free agency, but there are still things to like about Duvall. The plate discipline issue has always been there, as he has a career 6.7% walk rate and has never finished a season above 8.7%. He’s struck out in 28.5% of his career trips to the plate and has been at 25.8% or above in each season of his career. For reference, this year’s league averages were an 8.2% walk rate and 22.4% strikeout rate. However, he’s always paired that with tremendous power, topping 30 home runs in a season three times. He also hit 16 in the shortened 2020 season and 12 this year prior to being shut down.

He’s also considered to be a strong defensive outfielder. He’s tallied 58 Defensive Runs Saved on the grass in his career, 28 Outs Above Average and has a 22.7 from Ultimate Zone Rating. His DRS and UZR slipped to below average in 2022, but OAA still was quite bullish, placing him in the 88th percentile in the league. His arm strength placed in the 78th percentile, his outfielder jump in the 74th and his sprint speed 67th.

If 2022 showed Duvall’s profile at its worst, 2021 showed how valuable it can be. He struck out in 31.4% of his plate appearances and walked in only 6.3% of them, but he launched 38 home runs, stole five bases, led the National League in RBIs with 113 and provided excellent defense. He got a 9.9 from UZR, 19 DRS and +4 OAA. That DRS figure was tied with Michael A. Taylor for best in the league among all outfielders while the UZR score was in the top five. That was primarily corner outfield work, but 210 2/3 innings out of his 1155 total innings came in center field. He was awarded the National League Gold Glove award for right field. All told, FanGraphs calculated him to be worth 2.7 wins above replacement for the year.

Duvall is now 34 years old and coming off a down year, both in terms of health and performance. It would be easy to roll one’s eyes at the idea of a team bringing him aboard and giving him a significant role. However, the pickings in free agency are getting slim and every player still out there is going to have flaws in one way or another. Duvall likely won’t earn a tremendous salary in free agency due to his struggles this year, but he has the ability to provide strong corner outfield defense while playing center field on occasion. His plate discipline isn’t great but he has tremendous power. It’s also possible that the upcoming shift bans will boost his batting average by a few points, since he was shifted in 71.7% of his plate appearances this year despite hitting right-handed. Even with his struggles at the plate in 2022, he was still worth 0.9 fWAR in 86 games before the wrist issue put him out for the second half. He isn’t likely to kill you in a platoon capacity either, as his career splits aren’t drastic, with a 101 wRC+ against lefties and a 94 otherwise. For a team looking for a low-cost flier to find some sneaky value this late in the offseason, they could do much worse.

Free Agent Profile: Alex Cobb

By Steve Adams | January 16, 2018 at 1:41pm CDT

Alex Cobb looked every bit the part of a rising star in the Rays’ rotation before Tommy John surgery wiped him out for nearly two full seasons. His first year back was successful enough that he rejected a one-year, $17.4MM qualifying offer from Tampa Bay in order to test the waters of free agency.

Pros / Strengths

Cobb has a career 3.50 ERA, and fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.68), xFIP (3.62) and SIERA (3.73) all largely support that bottom-line run prevention mark. He’s long displayed above-average control, never averaging more than three walks per nine innings pitched in a full season, and the 2017 campaign was his best in that regard (2.2 BB/9). Home runs have also never been a big problem for Cobb. That was true in 2017 as well, as he allowed a manageable 1.1 HR/9 in a season that saw MLB hitters put the ball over the fence at increasing levels.

If Cobb’s overall 2017 numbers don’t immediately stand out and generate excitement, it’s perhaps worth looking at the strong fashion in which he finished the campaign. It’s only seven starts, but in his final 38 1/3 innings of the year, Cobb’s K/BB numbers took off. In that time, he averaged a dramatically improved 8.9 K/9 against 1.9 BB/9 with a 54.1 percent ground-ball rate. His 38-to-8 K/BB ratio in that time was nothing short of excellent. For a pitcher that was still trying to distance himself from Tommy John surgery and rediscover the form he showed in 2013-14 (2.82 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9, 56% grounder rate in 309 2/3 innings), that was a heartening finish.

Cobb is also the youngest of the top starting pitchers on the free agent market. He’ll pitch all of the 2018 regular season at the age of 30, not turning 31 until October 7. Jake Arrieta, meanwhile, will turn 32 in March; Yu Darvish will be 32 come August; and Lance Lynn turns 31 in May.

Cons / Weaknesses

Cobb’s finish to the season was nothing short of excellent, but the first 22 starts he made in 2017 were decidedly pedestrian. His 3.89 ERA in that time was solid, to be sure, as was his 2.3 BB/9 mark. However, Cobb was carrying a paltry 5.7 K/9 through his first 22 starts of the year and averaging 91.4 mph on his fastball. (Those marks jumped to 8.2 and 92.4 in his strong finish to the season; Cobb has previously exhibited similar intra-season velo gains.) Cobb’s 4.43 FIP, 4.58 xFIP and 4.79 SIERA all painted a much uglier picture than his more palatable ERA. For most of the season, Cobb looked more like a fifth starter than a mid-rotation arm.

There’s reason to wonder if Cobb can maintain the uptick in strikeouts he displayed late in the year as well, given that he posted a dismal six percent swinging-strike rate in that seven-start span. In fact, Cobb’s overall 6.7 percent swinging-strike rate was the third-lowest of any qualified starting pitcher in 2017. He topped only Ty Blach and Andrew Cashner — who posted MLB’s two lowest K/9 rates — in that regard.

The biggest knock against Cobb, though, is that he simply hasn’t stayed on the field often enough in his big league career. Since debuting in 2011, Cobb has missed time due to a hand injury, a concussion that wiped out a third of his 2013 season, oblique issues and 2015 Tommy John surgery. He’s never made more than 29 starts in a season and has never even reached the 180-inning mark. His agents can try to pitch him as a “low mileage arm” as a result, but the argument doesn’t carry all that much weight when the disabled list is the driving factor behind his low innings total and he has already had Tommy John surgery.

Like Arrieta and Lynn, Cobb rejected a one-year, $17.4MM qualifying offer from his previous team, so he’ll require the forfeiture of draft compensation for any team that wishes to sign him. Teams that paid the luxury tax in 2017 and teams that did not receive revenue sharing will also have to surrender a portion of their 2018-19 international bonus pool space to sign Cobb.

Market

Since the onset of free agency, Cobb has been regarded among the second tier of starting pitchers, ranking alongside Lynn in that regard, while both Darvish and Arrieta are considered to be the top two starters available. Of that quartet, only Darvish did not receive a qualifying offer (by virtue of the fact that he was traded midseason).

To date, Cobb has been tied most prominently to the Cubs. That makes plenty of sense given a potentially open rotation spot (assuming Mike Montgomery moves back to the bullpen) as well as clear connections to Cobb from his Rays days (manager Joe Maddon, new pitching coach Jim Hickey). Chicago reportedly made Cobb a three-year offer at a guaranteed total of $42MM. Cobb is said to have rejected that deal, and I’ll delve more into his earning capacity in the section that follows.

Beyond the Cubs, he’s been tied to the Twins, the Brewers, the Rangers and, much earlier in the offseason, the Orioles and Yankees. New York has since re-signed CC Sabathia, though the Yankees reportedly are maintaining interest in Darvish, so perhaps they’d have interest in Cobb at the right price. Then again, none of the names to which they’ve been prominently connected are associated with draft compensation.

Beyond that group, the Cardinals and Phillies are among the teams that are still reportedly seeking rotation upgrades to varying extents, though neither has been directly linked to Cobb. The Blue Jays, also, are said to be weighing the addition of a starting pitcher, as are the Dodgers (where president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman knows Cobb well from his own time with the Rays). Meanwhile, over in D.C., it’s unclear who will lock down the fifth spot in the rotation. To be clear, none of those teams is reported to be a serious pursuer of Cobb so much as they’re more generally reported to be exploring rotation additions. Presumably, once a combination of Darvish, Arrieta and/or Lynn come off the board, Cobb could see some new teams more seriously linked to his services.

Expected Contract

Reports early in the offseason suggested that Cobb was seeking upwards of $100MM over a five-year term, though FanRag’s Jon Heyman recently wrote that Cobb is now believed “willing” to sign a four-year deal at a total of $70MM or a five-year deal worth $80MM. Despite a fairly robust group of potential landing spots, those numbers range from ambitious ($70-80MM) to outlandish ($100MM), in my view.

Certainly, a pitcher doesn’t need to be an ace to secure $70-80MM in the modern financial climate of MLB. Ian Kennedy ($70MM), Mike Leake ($80MM) and Wei-Yin Chen ($80MM) have received five-year deals in the past two years. Kennedy and Chen even received opt-out provisions in their contracts. On a per-inning basis, I’d take Cobb over anyone from that trio. Cobb’s agents at Beverly Hills Sports Council — the same agency that represents Leake — are no doubt making a similar case in pitching their client to teams.

Unfortunately, one can hardly look at Cobb on a per-inning basis and compare him to other starters. Each of the starters in that group averaged at least 29 starts per season in the years leading up to free agency. Teams banked on them as durable sources of respectable innings. Cobb? The 29 starts he made in 2017 were a career-high, as were the 179 1/3 innings he threw.

Cobb has made 25 starts in a season just twice in his career, and he’s never reached the 180-inning plateau — even when combining Major League, minor league and postseason innings. It’s true that teams are leaning more heavily on the bullpen and asking starters to turn a lineup over for a third time with diminished frequency. But, it’s not reasonable to project Cobb to top 180 innings, and it’d be optimistic to even forecast him to approach last year’s total of 179 1/3 frames. Steamer projects Cobb at 133 innings; Baseball-Reference projects him to tally 152 — which would be only the third time in his career that he’s reached that level.

None of this is to disparage Cobb. In fact, when projecting Cobb’s contract for our annual Top 50 free agent rankings — MLBTR pegged Cobb at a four-year, $48MM deal — I was the most aggressive member of the MLBTR staff when deciding what prediction to place next to his name. It took numerous exchanges in our debate to get Cobb pushed up to the Brandon McCarthy deal.

The parallels with McCarthy, though, are significant. When I was writing McCarthy’s free agent profile three years ago, I noted that no pitcher with fewer than two seasons of 180+ innings had signed a guaranteed four-year deal in free agency. McCarthy set a precedent, in that regard, by inking a four-year, $48MM deal despite only having one season meeting that admittedly arbitrary criteria. No pitcher has matched the feat since.

Entering the offseason, I believed it was possible that the overall market for starting pitching had moved forward to the point that Cobb could secure a four-year guarantee despite the lack of durability on his resume. At the time, I’d have been comfortable predicting Cobb at anywhere between $52-56MM over a four-year term, recognizing that he at one point looked to be a potential emerging upper-echelon starter and showed glimpses of that down the stretch in 2017. (And, as previously noted, the increased emphasis on bullpen usage lessens the need for a starter to be able to rack up 200+ innings on the regular.) If Cobb is still dead set on maxing out his dollars on a four-year deal, then I think that range still applies.

However, the more I think about it, the more Cobb strikes me as a candidate for a “pillow” type of contract. “Pillow” deals in 2018, though, aren’t the same as they were even five years ago. Rather than traditional one-year deals, newfangled pillow contracts are more frequently multi-year pacts with significant guarantees that include early opt-out clauses, as we’ve seen recently from Yoenis Cespedes, Scott Kazmir, Matt Wieters and Greg Holland.

If the Cubs were really willing to offer Cobb $42MM over a three-year term, then perhaps it shouldn’t be that difficult to find a club that would offer a slightly larger guarantee with an opt-out after the first year. That’d effectively be the contract that Kazmir signed with the Dodgers — three years, $48MM with an opt-out after year one — and would leave Cobb with a notable payday and the opportunity to prove that he’s now capable of tossing 180+ innings (or thereabouts) in consecutive seasons. As an added and certainly significant bonus, Cobb would hit the market without the burden of draft-pick compensation next year, were he able to remain healthy and build on his strong finish, as the new CBA stipulates that players can only receive one QO in their career.

Bottom line: if Cobb wants to max out his guarantee, I still think he can land a four-year deal in the range of $52-56MM. But, if his camp is dead set on a $70-80MM payday, I’m not sure it’ll be there. Instead, he should consider seeking something in the Kazmir range — $45-48MM over three years with an opt-out clause — while hoping to re-enter the market next offseason when he won’t be tied to draft compensation and can potentially have another largely healthy season under his belt.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Ian Desmond

By Jeff Todd | December 5, 2015 at 4:07pm CDT

Ian Desmond is the best shortstop available on the open market, but he comes with plenty of risk.

Strengths/Pros

Delivering power from an up-the-middle defensive position is probably Desmond’s single standout trait. The 30-year-old has averaged 22 long balls annually since the start of his breakout 2012, and he’s done that consistently (ranging from 19 to 25) rather than relying on a single outlying season.

Desmond’s overall power production is equally strong, which has continued to be true despite a dip in 2015. Even in that down year, his .151 ISO landed right at league average and checked in at fourth among qualifying shortstops. Though Desmond began and ended the year with rough stretches, he managed to put up a .185 ISO over the second half owing to a blistering August that showed there’s still some juice in his bat.

That fairly steady pop has made the 30-year-old a strong overall contributor on offense. In spite of a propensity for the strikeout, he’s also quietly raised his walk rate to near the league average. Desmond picked up three straight Silver Slugger awards from 2012 through 2014, and owns a .264/.317/.443 since he began his breakout in 2012. While that line was down overall in 2015, his .307 BABIP did fall shy of his career .322 mark and he showed more life at the plate at times later in the season.

On the defensive side of the equation, Desmond has rated as an approximately average shortstop — by measure of both Defensive Runs Saved and UZR — in the aggregate over the past three years. While he’s not nearly as smooth (or as valuable) with the glove as some of the league’s true magicians, Desmond’s powerful and aggressive approach to the position remains effective. He has excellent range and a cannon for an arm.

While he’s not a top stolen base threat — he’s probably a candidate for 15-to-20 swipes a year moving forward — Desmond is among the game’s most skilled baserunners. By measure of Fangraphs’ BsR statistic, he rated 11th in the game last year in total contributions on the basepaths and falls within the 25 most productive runners league-wide over the past three seasons combined.

It’s worth noting also that, while Desmond has had his ups and downs, his physical skills remain elite. For instance, MLB recently released an interesting list of true “five-tool” players, based on several StatCast measurables, which puts Desmond alongside some truly outstanding names.

On top of these direct inputs, Desmond contributes in more subtle ways, too. He’s widely credited for his accountability, hard work, and clubhouse presence. For but one example of the many pieces written on the veteran’s leadership, check out this article regarding his influence over young Nationals star Bryce Harper.

Weaknesses/Cons

While there’s a lot to commend Desmond, he undeniably comes with some serious questions. At the plate, the major issue is contact. Desmond’s strikeout rate took a jump before 2014 and has hovered just shy of the 30% mark since.

Plenty of players have thrived with that kind of swing-and-miss in their game, but it’s an increasing concern, especially given that it has coincided with a broader downturn. It’s hard to ignore the fact that Desmond is coming off of an 83 wRC+ campaign, or that he’s declined in overall batting production for three years in a row. Power, as noted above, is a notable strength but Desmond’s ISO has also fallen off, and any further erosion would seriously hamper his value.

I mentioned BABIP above, and that stat can be an indicator of luck. But Desmond has a high career mark because of hard contact and speed, and there are some indications that his 2015 dip wasn’t just the product of circumstance. Desmond lost about four percentage points in hard contact in 2015, even as his soft-contact rate jumped by an even greater amount. He’s hitting more infield flies and grounders than ever.

Desmond also showed a newfound susceptibility to same-handed pitching. In the past, Desmond had neutral platoon splits (2013-14) or was so good against both that it didn’t much matter (2012). But last year, his OPS against righties was over 100 points south of the damage he inflicted against lefties. To be fair, that’s not necessarily a huge problem so much as a possible erosion of an area that had been a strength.

There’s concern, too, on the defensive side. Despite his excellent tools at short, Desmond has always been error prone and probably always will be. That tendency was on full display early in 2015, drawing plenty of attention, and is something that a signing team will need to be prepared to experience. Desmond’s error tally has grown every year since 2012.

Despite the down year, Desmond received and turned down a qualifying offer from the Nationals. That means that his new team will need to part with a draft pick to sign him.

Personal

Desmond and his wife, Chelsea, have three children and live in their native Sarasota, Florida. Desmond is known for being active in the community and has done charity work relating to neurofibromatosis and the Nationals’ Urban Youth Academy initiative.

Though he never suited up in Montreal — the club moved to D.C. just one year after he was drafted — Desmond was the last player left from that earlier epoch. The mutual respect between Desmond and the only professional team he’s known is readily apparent; GM Mike Rizzo called him “the rock of the organization,” while Desmond said he’s “extremely proud” to have been a National.

Market

Once the internal valuations are made, free agency is a complicated game with many moving parts and outside influences. Some best-in-class players can avoid that, to an extent, because the market is willing to wait on their decision. But while Desmond is the premier shortstop available, that doesn’t seem to be the likely course for him.

Given all the complications surrounding his value, teams are likely to weigh a signing of Desmond along with other possibilities — especially since he’ll require draft pick forfeiture. There are some other viable shortstops on the market, including Asdrubal Cabrera and bounce-back veterans such as Alexei Ramirez and Jimmy Rollins. And, of course, the trade market is always a factor.

With several outstanding young shortstops ascending to the majors in recent years, the demand side of the equation isn’t terribly strong. The Padres may be the best fit on paper after clearing salary in the Craig Kimbrel trade, while the White Sox, Twins, and Mets also could be in the market at short. It’s still unclear, though, whether any of those clubs will want to spend top dollar on Desmond, particularly given that several have plausible shortstops of the future moving through their farms.

Otherwise, it’s not obvious where Desmond could land, though there are a few clubs that could make some theoretical sense in the right circumstances. The Braves, for instance, might be an under-the-radar possibility if they were to trade Erick Aybar and could get value in a deal. The Rockies would also be a surprise, but there’s at least some opening (however unlikely) given the uncertainty surrounding Jose Reyes. A return to the Nationals can’t be ruled out entirely, particularly if Desmond’s market collapses and he’s forced into a pillow contract.

Expected Contract

Comparable free agents are hard to come by. Jhonny Peralta got four years and $53MM coming off of a PED suspension. That seems somewhat on the light side for Desmond, but isn’t an implausible figure if demand never comes to fruition. Reyes scored $106MM over six seasons, but Desmond seems unlikely to warrant a sixth year at this stage. Indeed, if anything, the lack of numerous obvious suitors could hold him to a four-year deal. All said, though, there’s a wide range of plausible outcomes.

My best guess is that Desmond will find a fifth guaranteed year, but won’t get both that and a premium annual salary. Despite being a big fan of Desmond’s, personally, I find myself a bit bearish on his free agent outlook and will predict he lands a five-year, $70MM deal.

Free Agent Profile: Stephen Drew

By charliewilmoth | December 7, 2014 at 8:40pm CDT

A year after rejecting a qualifying offer from the Red Sox that derailed his offseason, Stephen Drew is back on the market. This time, Drew is coming off a poor season, but the lack of a qualifying offer should help him this time around, as should the weak shortstop market.

Pros/Strengths

Drew is a plus defensive shortstop, posting positive UZR numbers in five of the last six seasons. He’s consistent in the field, and he has good hands and decent range, which he augments by using data to position himself before plays. “He’s one of the best in baseball,” Red Sox coach Brian Butterfield said in 2013. “I feel fortunate to be able to see him every day. He has great hands and great feet.”

Even while Drew struggled at the plate in 2014, he was comfortably above average at shortstop. He also played a bit of second base with the Yankees in 2014, and by eventually moving to a utility infielder role, he could prolong his career for quite awhile even if his offense doesn’t rebound much. Clint Barmes, a similarly strong defender who provided value for the Pirates from 2012 through 2014 even as his bat faded, demonstrates what the last few years of Drew’s career, whenever those might come, might look like.

In his better years, Drew has a good bat as well, with plenty of line drives and walks to go along with 15-homer power. In 2013, he hit .253/.333/.443 with 50 extra-base hits, a fine total for a shortstop. At 31, he also isn’t so old that he’s obviously over the hill, and he’s only one year removed from having enough value to be extended (and to reject) a qualifying offer. If he can recoup a significant percentage of that value in 2015, he’ll be a bargain for his next team.

Cons/Weaknesses

Thanks to the qualifying offer, Drew’s 2014 season didn’t get started until June, and he never got going after that. The layoff from game action surely affected his season, but many other players have missed the starts of their seasons (usually due to injury, of course, and not a protracted period of free agency) and still been productive upon returning. At 31, it’s possible Drew’s poor performance in 2014 could be primarily the result of age-related decline.

Drew also has not batted above .253 since 2010, so he should not be expected to hit for a good average going forward. That limits his upside, which means that if he rebounds offensively in 2015, it could be a bounce-back of the dead-cat variety; Steamer projects he’ll hit just .218/.294/.352 next season. Given Drew’s defensive value, that would still place him above replacement level, although not by nearly as much as he’s been in the past.

Personal

Drew and older brothers J.D. and Tim are the first trio of siblings to all be first-round draft picks, and former star outfielder J.D., in particular, has had a big influence on Drew’s career. Stephen is naturally right-handed, but became a left-handed hitter by imitating J.D. “A lot of people don’t know I was a switch-hitter,” says Stephen. “I always wanted to come back and hit right-handed. If I had to do it over, I would, but it’s too late in my career to fiddle with that.” Stephen also wore the same No. 7 that J.D. wore in Boston. Stephen, wife Laura, and their two sons live in the small town of Hahira, Georgia in the offseason, down the road from J.D. and his family.

Market

The list of free agent starting shortstops is short — there’s Drew, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Jed Lowrie, and that’s all, and even that assumes that teams will view Cabrera and Lowrie as shortstops rather than second basemen. Meanwhile, many teams need a shortstop, including the Mets, Dodgers and Athletics. Some of those teams could try to address their needs via trades, but that could be tricky — prying away Troy Tulowitzki from the Rockies or Jimmy Rollins (who has 10-and-5 rights anyway) from the Phillies should prove difficult. Brad Miller from the Mariners could be a more realistic target.

The Mets have already been connected to Drew, and Oakland is another possibility. Yankees GM Brian Cashman (whose recent trade for Didi Gregorius probably eliminated his team as a landing spot for Drew) has said that he does not believe Drew’s awful 2014 season reflects his true talent level, and it’s not hard to imagine other teams hoping he’s right, if only because they won’t have many choices. There’s also the possibility that Drew could market himself as a second baseman, but in this market, he shouldn’t need to.

Expected Contract

Drew has made about $40MM in his career, but poor timing and luck have prevented the Scott Boras client from ever landing a big contract. A nasty ankle injury in 2011 caused him to miss much of the 2012 season just before he hit free agency, and he settled for a one-year deal with the Red Sox in 2013. Then the qualifying offer ruined his offseason market, and he had to settle for a prorated one-year deal. Now he’s finally free of injury and the qualifying offer, but his poor performance will be a major drag on his next deal. Drew’s 2014 season should force him to take a one-year contract, perhaps for one year and $7MM.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Robinson Cano

By Steve Adams | November 19, 2013 at 9:00am CDT

Robinson Cano made headlines early in the regular season by leaving super-agent Scott Boras to become the first client to be represented by rapper and entrepreneur Jay-Z's startup sports agency — Roc Nation Sports. Jay-Z is partnering with CAA in the Roc Nation Sports effort, and CAA's Brodie Van Wagenen will be handling much of the negotiation process this offseason, though Jay-Z himself is now officially an MLBPA-certified player representative as well. While his agency news may have gotten the headlines in April, now that we're into the offseason, it'll be his historic contract that garners attention.

Strengths/Pros

Cano is one of the game's best all-around players, plain and simple. He led all free agent position players in wins above replacement (6.9 fWAR, 7.6 rWAR) due to his combination of offense and strong defensive contributions at a premium, up-the-middle position.

Cano batted .314/.383/.516 this season, earning his fourth consecutive All-Star bid and fourth consecutive Silver Slugger award. His fifth-place finish in the AL MVP voting marked his fifth consecutive season receiving votes for the award and fourth straight season of finishing sixth or better.

Cano's 142 wRC+ dating back to 2010 is the fourth-highest in Major League Baseball, and his 25.4 fWAR in that time trails only Miguel Cabrera. In terms of more traditional numbers, he's averaged 107 RBIs and 98 runs scored per season over that same time. He hits for power, averaging 28 homers per season since 2009, and has hit below .300 just twice in his Major League career (including a .297 effort in his rookie season).

Cano's defense slipped a bit in 2013, but his glove is generally regarded as a positive. UZR/150 pegged him for +1.3 runs above average this season, while The Fielding Bible's Defensive Runs Saved metric pegged him at +6. Those are solid numbers, but consider that he was at +10.7 (UZR/150) and +15 (DRS) in 2012. DRS, in particular, raves about Cano, crediting him for +38 runs dating back to 2010.

One of the biggest concerns over the course of a mega-contract like the one Cano figures to sign is health, but that hasn't been an issue for the Bronx Bombers' keystone man. Cano hasn't been on the disabled list since missing six weeks with a hamstring strain all the way back in 2006, and since that time he's averaged a whopping 160 games per season.

Cano is better against right-handed pitchers than lefties, but his .290/.340/.450 career line against southpaws shows that he's more than capable of handling his own against same-handed pitching. Those who think he's a product of Yankee Stadium's short right-field porch need only look at his .862 career OPS on the road alongside his .858 mark at home to realize that Cano can hit anywhere.

Weaknesses/Cons

Cano will play next season at age 31, making him just one year younger than Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton were when each signed their massive contracts that have all quickly become albatrosses. Cano figures to sign for much closer to the 10 years that Rodriguez and Pujols received than the five years that Hamilton received. His contract will be a colossal risk, and there's little hope that he'll still be playing anywhere close to his current level by the time it completes.

If there's one element of Cano's game that's lacking, it's probably his speed. He's never stolen more than eight bases in a season, has an ugly 57.6 percent success rate in his career and has added significant value on the basepaths just twice in his nine-year career. It's an underrated part of the game that many fans don't look at, but Fangraphs pegged Cano's baserunning at -2 runs this season. That only figures to get worse as he ages.

In 2013, Cano posted his lowest isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average) since 2009. His mark of .202 is still excellent for any hitter, let alone a second baseman, but if it's a portent for the decline of his power as he exits his prime years, his value would take a hit going forward. The very fact that a .202 ISO is listed in the "Weaknesses/Cons" section of this post speaks to the elite level of Cano's game.

In one of the least-surprising decisions in recent history, the Yankees made a qualifying offer to Cano, and he promptly rejected it. He'd come at the cost of a draft pick for a new team.

Personal

Cano's father, Jose, was signed by the Yankees in 1980 and briefly pitched in the Majors with the Astros in 1989. Cano's parents named him Robinson after the legendary Jackie Robinson, and he wears No. 24 (Jackie's No. 42 flipped) to this day as a means of honoring that namesake. The Yankees' media guide has nearly a full page dedicated to Cano's philanthropic efforts both in New York and his native Dominican Republic. Cano and his parents established the RC24 Foundation in 2011 — a charity intended to provide hope to sick and underprivileged children in New York and the Dominican Republic. He has also donated nine ambulances and four school buses to his hometown of San Pedro de Macoris. The ambulances were donated in memory of a close friend who died after he was unable to receive immediate medical attention following a motorcycle accident.

Cano was famously benched for a lack of hustle in 2008, but those problems are a thing of the past, hitting coach Kevin Long told Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News earlier this year. Long praised Cano's work ethic and offseason training regimen to Feinsand, who also spoke with Cano's World Baseball Classic GM, Moises Alou: "Robby, what a guy. He’s a five, six-tool player. I mean, I knew he was good, but he made my job so easy, with his performance and leadership."

Market

Cano's market could be more limited than any other free agent this season due to his contract demands. In early October, it was reported that Cano and Roc Nation were targeting $305-310MM in guaranteed money, in order to top the maximum value that A-Rod could reach were he to hit all of his incentives. Let me start by stating that I see zero chance of Cano signing the largest contract in history. Those comments were almost certainly a pure negotiation ploy; coming out and saying, "We want $200MM" would have started the discussion far too low.

So what teams could possibly afford Cano? A return to the Yankees still seems the most probable outcome, but in order to extract maximum dollars, Roc Nation/CAA will have to drum up some competition. The Dodgers were a natural landing spot, but they said prior to season's end that they weren't going to pursue Cano, and their four-year, $28MM contract with Cuban second baseman Alexander Guerrero seems indicative that they plan on sticking to that mentality.

Tigers owner Mike Ilitch has spent liberally in the past, proclaiming that he wants to see his team win a World Series in his lifetime. The Tigers have Omar Infante hitting free agency and have issued $200MM guarantees to Prince Fielder and Justin Verlander already. However, with Miguel Cabrera needing an extension in a few seasons, would they risk another annual salary north of $20MM?

The Nationals could be on the periphery, as could the Angels, though their days of dabbling in mega-contracts are likely over for the time being with Pujols and Hamilton on the books. Could the Mets shock the baseball world by using their newfound cash to force a jersey change but keep Cano in New York? They took one meeting with him already, but most media outlets have downplayed them as a serious suitor even in light of that news.

The Rangers are always aggressive spenders, but they already have a logjam of middle infielders with Elvis Andrus, Ian Kinsler and Jurickson Profar. Still, a trade of Andrus or Profar plus a move to first base or left field for Kinsler to open second base is at least conceivable. Could Jack Zduriencik be so desperate to bring some offense to Seattle that he breaks the $200MM threshold for Cano? The Cubs have the deep pockets and no clear solution at second base, but they've stated that they're not planning on pursuing big fish this winter. The Blue Jays have a need at second base and are clearly in win-now mode. Another big offseason splash would likely rejuvenate their fanbase after a disappointing 2013, but signing Cano would be counterintuitive to GM Alex Anthopoulos' free agent philosophy.

In addition to other free agents, teams in need of help at second base could look to acquire Brandon Phillips as an alternative. Phillips appears to have fallen out of favor in Cincinnati, and while the four years and $50MM remaining on his contract are sizable, that seems like a pittance in comparison to Cano's eventual contract.

Expected Contract

There's little doubt that Cano will sign the richest contract of the offseason, and it seems likely that his representation will set out seeking 10 years. If Cano's price tag were to drop to seven years, I imagine that numerous suitors would emerge. More realistically, the middle ground between teams' comfort levels and Van Wagenen/Jay-Z's demands will probably be met in the form of eight or nine years.

Cano finds himself in a similar situation to that of Prince Fielder heading into the 2012 season — everyone expects a historic contract, but there appears to be a lack of logical suitors. Ultimately, the market came to Fielder and Scott Boras, and Fielder was able to land a nine-year, $214MM contract.

I expect Fielder's contract to be the floor for the Cano camp. Cano figures to shatter the records for longest contract, largest guarantee and largest average annual value for a second baseman. How much will he sign for though? Dating back to 2007, the mean AAV for hitter contracts of at least eight years is $24.44MM. That grouping includes a select quartet of then-elite bats: Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Fielder and Mark Teixeira.

That mean AAV would come out to an even $220MM over the course of a nine-year contract or $244.4MM over the course of 10 years. It makes sense to try to top that AAV, and I believe they'll do just that, though not over the course of a 10-year deal. However, a nine-year, $234MM contract would give Cano's camp a nice round number ($26MM annually) and blow Fielder's contract out of the water. It would also top the mean AAV for baseball's most recent mega-deals and establish the second-highest AAV of any such deal as well. As such, that's my prediction for Cano's eventual contract, even if the market has yet to seriously take shape.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Profile: Jhonny Peralta

By Steve Adams | November 13, 2013 at 10:50am CDT

Jhonny Peralta was enjoying one of the finest seasons of his career when he was connected to the Biogenesis clinic this summer. Soon after, MLB slammed 12 players, including Peralta, with 50-game suspensions. Peralta's strong season at the plate is now tainted, and he'll have to try to overcome the negative impact of that suspension in free agency this offseason.

Strengths/Pros

Peralta is a career .268/.330/.425 hitter, translating to a 101 OPS+ and 102 wRC+. In other words, he's one to two percent better than a league-average hitter, which is an incredibly valuable trait to have as a shortstop. Over the past five seasons, shortstops have collectively posted wRC+ ratings between 83 and 88. Peralta's robust .303/.358/.457 line from 2013 translated to a mark of 123.

His glove was shaky early on in his career, but both Ultimate Zone Rating and The Fielding Bible's Defensive Runs Saved metric agree that Peralta has improved tremendously in recent years. Peralta has a +9.1 UZR/150 dating back to 2009, and DRS has him at +4 runs in that stretch. Peralta offers positional flexibility, having totaled 1742 big league innings at third base as well, though neither defensive metric likes him as much at the hot corner.

Peralta shows a slight platoon split, but he's been able to hold his own against right-handed pitching throughout his career, slashing .270/.326/.416. In 2013, he hit righties at a .282/.338/.412 clip. He has enough bat against both right-handers and left-handers to be an everyday player.

Peralta broke into the league as a full-time player at the age of 23, so while it seems like he's been around for a long time, he's still just 31 years old and won't turn 32 until late May of 2014. Peralta will be younger than every notable free agent third baseman and every notable free agent shortstop outside of Stephen Drew.

He's been highly durable throughout his career, averaging 149 games per season and, incredibly, never landing on the disabled list at any point in his Major League tenure.

Given the Tigers' acquisition of Jose Iglesias, the team elected not to extend a qualifying offer to Peralta and risk having to deploy him in left field or at second base. Unlike his main competition — Drew — signing Peralta will not require draft pick forfeiture.

Weaknesses/Cons

Peralta's career numbers at the plate look solid, but he's been wildly inconsistent on a year-to-year basis. Peralta has five seasons of an OPS+/wRC+ greater than 100 (i.e. better than league average), one in the low 90s and three in the mid-80s. In particular, his power seems to fluctuate, as he owns four 20+ homer seasons but has hit between 11 and 15 long balls in every other big league season he's played. He'd be compensated much more handsomely if he could show consistent 20-homer pop.

Peralta may have posted a .303 batting aveage in 2013, but that mark was clearly boosted by a career-high .374 batting average on balls in play. He won't repeat that number in 2013, and it's reasonable to expect his average to drop accordingly, perhaps even lower than his career .268 mark, as Peralta's strikeout rate jumped to 21.9 percent this season.

If Peralta's average comes down, he could post an OBP below the league average, as he did in 2009, 2010 and 2012, due to the fact that he's walked at just an 8.3 percent clip for his career. Unlike his average and power totals, that number has remained pretty constant, and he was at 7.8 percent this year.

Peralta's connection to PEDs brings into question just how much of his 2013 performance was natural. A player with such a sterling medical history can hardly make the claim that he was using banned substances to help speed up his timetable for recovery from an injury.

Personal

Peralta and his wife, Molly, have three daughters and make their home in the Cleveland suburb of Westlake, per the Tigers media guide. His teammates defended him after the suspension, with Hunter in particular offering praise (via MLive.com's Chris Iott): "If you know Jhonny — and a lot of people don't know Jhonny — but if you know Jhonny, awesome guy. Awesome guy. He just made a mistake." Verlander called Peralta his "brother," noting that he could hold no grudge against a man who admitted to making a mistake and serving the penalty for it.

Market

Peralta has made it clear that he'd like to return to the Tigers, but with Iglesias installed at shortstop and top prospect Nick Castellanos serving as an in-house possibility for left field, the Tigers simply don't have much room on the roster to keep Peralta around.

If and when the Tigers move on, Peralta and agent Fern Cuza of SFX shouldn't have any problem finding interested contenders willing to offer a multiyear deal. Shortstops are always in demand, and in spite of his inconsistencies, Peralta has averaged 2.8 fWAR and 2.6 rWAR over the past six seasons.

Even in his worst seasons, Peralta has been a considerable upgrade over what the Cardinals received from Pete Kozma this season. The Pirates could look to upgrade over Jordy Mercer's shaky glove if they feel he can't repeat this year's .368 second-half BABIP (which, obviously, is quite unlikely). Given uncertainty surrounding Ruben Tejada's status and a stated desire to spend on free agency, the Mets could be a logical landing place as well. Oakland could use Peralta at shortstop and slide Jed Lowrie over to second base, but they may be hesitant to meet his asking price and may not want to block Addison Russell's path to the Majors.

Peralta could also appeal to teams that need help at third base. In that regard, a return to Cleveland could make sense, and Angels could also use an upgrade at the position. Signing Peralta would give them the luxury to aggressively shop Erick Aybar as well. The Dodgers could also look to upgrade at third if they don't retain Juan Uribe.

Expected Contract

Suspension aside, Peralta is a typically solid bat at a premium position who can boast being youthful enough that he's not yet entering his decline phase. Peralta is a league-average bat with upside for much more and whose floor would only drop him to roughly league-average for his position. Players like that are scarce on the free agent market.

Cuza seems likely to target four years for Peralta on the open market, and his best bet may very well be to try to start a bidding war between two teams with a clear need such as the Cardinals and Mets. Marco Scutaro's three-year, $20MM contract with the Giants seems too light, given Peralta's offensive track record, so I expect Peralta to sign a three-year, $36MM contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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