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Free Agent Profile: Jakob Junis

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Spring training is ramping up this week but the offseason isn’t done. Seven of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents remain unsigned, including one big fish in Alex Bregman, as well as plenty of mid-rotation starters.

Jakob Junis is one pitcher we considered for the list but who just missed the cut. The righty hasn’t appeared in any rumors of note this winter. MLBTR hasn’t written about him since he declined his end of a mutual option and became a free agent at the start of November.

The righty was a free agent last winter as well and agreed to a deal with the Brewers almost exactly one year ago. Reports emerged on February 5 of 2024 that he would sign a one-year deal with Milwaukee, a $7MM guarantee.

It took a bit of time for his season to get momentum. He made one appearance in early April before landing on the injured list due to a right shoulder impingement. His return was delayed by a scary fluke incident. He was doing some on-field jogging during batting practice before a game when he was struck by an errant ball. He didn’t come off the IL until late June.

After coming off the IL, he pitched multi-inning relief outings for the Brewers. But just over a month after being reinstated, he was flipped to the Reds as part of the deadline deal which sent Frankie Montas to Milwaukee. He pitched out of the Cincinnati bullpen for a while but moved to the rotation down the stretch as that club dealt with a number of injuries and was playing out the string on the season.

Despite the delayed ramp-up and the midseason change of scenery, Junis still managed to log some good numbers on the whole. He made 24 appearances, including six starts, throwing 67 innings. He allowed just 2.69 earned runs per nine frames. He got a bit of help from a .224 batting average on balls in play and a 77.9% strand rate, but his 3.69 FIP and 3.72 SIERA suggest he still would have been effective even with neutral fortune from the baseball gods. His 20.2% strikeout rate was down a bit from the year prior but he also dropped his walk rate all the way to a miniscule 3.2%.

That’s now four straight seasons of pretty decent production from Junis. Over the 2021 to 2024 campaigns, he made 33 starts and 70 relief appearances. In that time, he posted a 3.99 ERA, 22.6% strikeout rate and 5.2% walk rate. Control is clearly a strength, as he’s never finished a season with a walk rate higher than 7.5%. His strikeout rates have been fairly average, but he has occasionally found an extra gear in that department. He punched out 24.4% of opponents in 2021 and 26.2% in 2023, though he was down closer to 20% in 2022 and 2024.

In terms of his arsenal, his four-seamer and sinker averaged around 92 miles per hour last year, though he also threw a slider, changeup and cutter. The slider has been his most important weapon, as he has thrown that more than any other pitch in each of the last five seasons. The Stuff+ metric has given the pitch a grade around 110 pretty consistently for the past five years and he averaged 13.4 inches of horizontal break on it in 2024, per Statcast, putting it 11th among sliders from qualified pitchers last year in that department. Hitters generally put up batting averages around the Mendoza line against it, including a slash of .183/.230/.346 last year.

Junis doesn’t have notable concerns in his splits. As a right-hander, lefties have hit him better, but not drastically so. He has allowed a line of .286/.340/.473 without the platoon advantage in his career, only a bit better than his .248/.300/.430 line allowed to righties.

He’s also capable of putting up decent numbers from both the rotation or the bullpen. As a starter over the past four years, he has a 3.76 ERA, 22.4% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk rate. As a reliever in that span, he has a 4.22 ERA that seems inflated by a .332 BABIP, as his 22.8% strikeout rate and 5.3% walk rate are very similar to his rotation work.

Based on the quiet winter, it’s possible that Junis will wind up with a similar deal to the $7MM guarantee he got last winter. In the past month or so, Michael Lorenzen, Martín Pérez and Colin Rea have signed one-year deals in that range, with Lorenzen getting $7MM and the other two getting $5MM. Here are the numbers for those guys over the past two years, with that range selected because Rea was pitching in Japan in 2022:

  • Junis: 153 innings, 3.35 ERA, 23.7% strikeout rate, 4.7% walk rate
  • Lorenzen: 283 1/3 innings, 3.78 ERA, 17.9% strikeout rate, 9.2% walk rate
  • Rea: 292 1/3 innings, 4.40 ERA, 19.9% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate
  • Perez: 276 2/3 innings, 4.49 ERA,  16.7% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate

Junis has a lower innings tally than everyone in that group, due in part to his injured list stint in 2024 and because the Giants mostly used him out of the bullpen in 2023. But on a rate basis, he’s been clearly a cut above those recent back-end starters/swing guys that have signed lately. Plenty of clubs still need pitching help and injuries will surely be discovered in the coming weeks as pitchers ramp up in camp. If some club goes out looking for late-winter bargains, Junis seems like a good candidate.

Free Agent Profile: Jorge Polanco

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Just under a year ago, the Mariners acquired second baseman Jorge Polanco from the Twins as part of a five-player deal that also involved right-hander Anthony DeScalfani, the latter of whom was traded to Seattle as part of the Robbie Ray trade earlier that same month. At the time of the deal, adding Polanco seemed to be something of a coup for the Mariners, who were in desperate need of an upgrade over Kolten Wong at second base and managed to take advantage of the fact that the Twins were facing a mandate to cut payroll and had plenty of infield depth at their disposal.

That allowed them to add a former All-Star with who had slashed .255/.333/.462 (120 wRC+) over the previous three seasons. Polanco even came with multiple years of control in the form of a $12MM team option ($750K buyout) that seemed quite likely to be a no-brainer for the club to pick up when the trade was executed. Flash forward to the end of the 2024 campaign, however, and Polanco had posted arguably the worst full season of his career before undergoing knee surgery in October. Given that, it was a surprise to no one when the Mariners opted to decline their option on the switch-hitter and pocket the $11.25MM in savings for use on other areas of the roster.

Since then, Polanco has been awaiting an opportunity on the free agent market. The infielder is slated to return to baseball activities at some point this month and be fully ready to go in time for Spring Training, but his market has nonetheless been rather quiet. The Astros reportedly had some level of interest in Polanco as a fallback plan in the event they failed to land Alex Bregman, but they instead pivoted to a combination of Isaac Paredes at third base and Christian Walker at first. That seems likely to close the door on the possibility of Polanco heading to Houston, and no other teams have been publicly connected to the infielder.

Some trepidation from clubs regarding Polanco is understandable. In addition to the fact that he’s coming off offseason surgery, there are some worrisome signs in his performance last year even going beyond his raw production. Polanco’s 29.2% strikeout rate was by far the worst mark of his 11-year MLB tenure. He’s struck out just a 19.5% clip throughout his career, but his strikeouts have been steadily increasing over the last several years. He struck out at just an 18.3% clip back in 2021, which was by far the best season of his career. Since then, however, his strikeouts have climbed each season with a 21.3% figure in 2022 and 25.7% in ’23 before topping out with last year’s aforementioned 29.2% clip.

It’s a worrying trend that was present even when Polanco was productive in previous years and shows little sign of turning around. After making contact on 81.6% of pitches he swung at in 2021, good for the 32nd-highest contact rate among 132 qualified hitters. That figure dropped to 73.6% last year, though, which was just 124th among 169 hitters with at least 450 plate appearances. That’s a steep drop, though it’s not the culprit of Polanco’s downturn in production on its own. After all, his 77.1% and 77.2% contact rates in 2022 and ’23 were diminished relative to 2021 as well and Polanco still managed to remain productive.

Where Polanco found success in those years but not 2024 was in the power department: his barrel rate in 2022 was a well above-average 10.2%, and it jumped to an excellent 13.8% two seasons ago. Last year, however, it dipped to just 8.9%. That’s still an above-average figure overall, but a nearly five-point drop in barrel rate is sure to sap any hitter’s power output. Polanco was no exception to that, as after crushing 14 homers and 18 doubles in just 343 plate appearances in 2023 last year saw Polanco slug just 16 homers and 11 doubles despite stepping up to the plate 136 more times than he had the year prior.

While Polanco’s deteriorating contact numbers and vanishing power are both clear causes for concern, there is some reason for optimism as well. His 9.8% walk rate remained well above average in 2024, and his .311 xwOBA was 24 points higher than his .287 wOBA. That suggests at least some of his lackluster campaign last year was due to poor batted ball luck, and after a season where he posted a 92 wRC+ for the Mariners it’s easy to imagine him being more of an average to slightly above-average hitter by that metric had his results matched more closely with the underlying metrics.

A second baseman who can put up a wRC+ in the 100-105 range can be a valuable regular even when factoring in Polanco’s lackluster defense at the keystone, and it’s not hard to imagine Polanco being a steady, two-win regular if healthy enough to play a full season in 2025 even without his contract or power bouncing back. Between that solid floor of production at the possibility Polanco can rediscover either the power stroke or the more contact-oriented approach he found success with in previous seasons, he figures to be one of the better players available to teams in need of help at second or third base at this point in the winter—particularly for clubs that aren’t willing to commit what it would take to land Bregman, Nolan Arenado, or Ha-Seong Kim on an annual basis. The Yankees, Angels, Cubs, and Pirates are among a number of teams that could use help around the infield that Polanco could be a speculative fit for.

Free Agent Profile: Charlie Morton

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The 2024-25 offseason has seen starting pitchers enjoy a hot market practically from the start of the winter, and virtually every starter has signed a deal that surpassed expectations this winter. That’s led to a run on starters all throughout the winter, and as the 2025 calendar year begins just four starting pitchers who MLBTR predicted to land multi-year deals this winter remain on the market: Jack Flaherty, Nick Pivetta, Jose Quintana, and Andrew Heaney. With a number of clubs still hoping to add starting pitching help this winter, that means several teams are going to have to turn towards one-year deals in order to add to their rotation.

The list of players who figure to be available in that corner of the market is wide-ranging, with solid but unspectacular veterans like Kyle Gibson and Martín Pérez as well as players hoping to rebound from down or injured seasons like Michael Lorenzen and Spencer Turnbull. One particularly unique group of pitchers available on one-year deals is a handful of aging veterans who have long been among the better starters in baseball but either can’t garner or aren’t interested in making multi-year commitments at this point in their careers. Former Cy Young award winners Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and Justin Verlander all fall into this category, but the best of the group in 2024 was actually 41-year-old right-hander Charlie Morton.

Unlike the aforementioned trio, Morton isn’t a future Hall of Famer. He didn’t make his big league debut until he was 24 years old and didn’t fully break out as a front-end starter until his age-33 season, which came with the Astros back in 2017. Since then, however, Morton has been among the better pitchers in the sport. He’s grown into one of the more durable starters in the sport with more than 1200 innings of work over the past eight seasons, good for eighth in the majors. Among starters with at least 1000 innings of work during that time, Morton’s 3.64 ERA and near-matching 3.63 FIP rank ninth, while his fantastic 27.4% strikeout rate ranks sixth behind only Scherzer, Verlander, Gerrit Cole, Yu Darvish, and Blake Snell.

That steady, reliable production would have made Morton an attractive free agent for a number of clubs in recent years, but his last foray into free agency was back in the 2020-21 offseason, when he limited his market to just Atlanta and Tampa Bay in an effort to remain close to his family. Since then, he’s signed successive short-term extensions with the Braves in order to remain in Atlanta. In four years as a member of the Braves, Morton pitched to a 3.87 ERA (110 ERA+) with a 3.92 FIP in 686 1/3 innings of work, positioning himself as a durable mid-rotation arm.

There’s been some variance in Morton’s work with Atlanta, as he posted top-of-the-rotation caliber results in 2021 and ’23 but was closer to league average in 2022 and ’24. Even in those down years, though, Morton’s durability made him a quality rotation option not unlike Gibson. With the floor of a sturdy, back-of-the-rotation veteran and the ceiling of a playoff-caliber starter, Morton stands out among the remaining starters available as something like the best of both worlds; he’s been as durable over the years as a veteran like Gibson or Patrick Corbin, but with recent success that easily clears those more reliable arms.

While even Morton’s best years pale in comparison to what the aforementioned trio of aging aces looked like at their peak, Morton’s numbers after the past two years are actually very similar to Scherzer’s on a rate basis: Scherzer has posted a 3.81 ERA (109 ERA+) with a 4.29 FIP since the start of the 2023 season, while Morton has posted a 3.92 ERA (108 ERA+) with a 4.17 FIP over the same time frame. Scherzer’s 26.8% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate are better than Morton’s 24.7% strikeout rate and 10.4% walk rate, but Morton benefits from a much higher groundball rate and of course has nearly double Scherzer’s volume over the past two years.

While betting on a pitcher who’s already celebrated his 41st birthday will always come with risk, Morton’s impressive durability and consistent track record of success make him one of the most intriguing mixes of upside and stability still available in free agency at this point. With that said, it doesn’t appear that the veteran has fully decided whether or not he’ll return to the mound at all for 2025. Morton has frequently considered hanging up the glove to join his family at their home in Florida, and while initial reports indicated his intention to pitch in 2025, Morton’s plans seemingly remain up in the air as he would likely wind up somewhere other than Atlanta for the coming season.

Reportedly, Morton’s preference is to pitch for a team that hosts their Spring Training in Florida so he can stay close to home for more of the season. Aside from the Braves and Rays, the Orioles, Red Sox, Tigers, Astros, Blue Jays, Marlins, Twins, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Pirates, Cardinals, and Nationals all play in the Grapefruit League during the spring. The majority of those teams are either facing significant payroll constraints or unlikely to add rotation help this winter, but the Orioles, Astros, Tigers, and Mets could all be speculative potential destinations for the right-hander should he wind up departing Atlanta.

Free Agent Profile: Robbie Grossman

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Spring Training is getting going but there are still plenty of unsigned free agents. The market is headlined by the so-called “Boras Four,” which consists of Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman, but there are also lots of guys who could be nice under-the-radar pickups at this stage of the offseason.

Just over a year ago, February 17 of 2023, the Rangers signed outfielder Robbie Grossman. The deal guaranteed him $2MM and also came with $5MM in possible incentives. The Rangers had a fairly unsettled outfield mix, with Adolis García’s presence the only certainty at the time.

The switch-hitting Grossman ended up getting into 115 games for the Rangers, drawing a walk in 13.6% of his 420 plate appearances and hitting 10 home runs. His .238/.340/.394 batting line translated to a 102 wRC+, indicating he was just a bit above league average, though his defense was subpar.

It’s not an overwhelming profile but digging a little deeper is where the enticing stuff lies. Though he bats from both sides of the plate, Grossman has always been better against left-handed pitching. For his career, he’s hit southpaws to the tune of .282/.381/.426 for a 126 wRC+. Against righties, his .229/.332/.360 batting line translates to a 94 wRC+. The split was even more stark in 2023, as he limped to a line of .206/.304/.329 against righties for a 75 wRC+ but lit up lefties for a .309/.416/.536 slash and 158 wRC+.

The Rangers ended up going 90-72 last year, sneaking into the playoffs by securing a Wild Card spot in the final weekend of the regular season. From there, they went on to charge through the postseason and win the World Series for the first time in franchise history. That was obviously thanks to huge contributions from superstars like Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, but small pickups like Grossman and Travis Jankowski played their roles as well.

Grossman’s received a fairly regular role over the years, having stepped to the plate at least 420 times in each of the past six full seasons and 192 in the shortened 2020 campaign. Now that he’s 34 years old and set to turn 35 in the latter parts of the upcoming campaign, perhaps he would be best utilized by a club that could limit his exposure to right-handed pitching.

The Red Sox are reportedly looking for outfield additions with a righty being preferred to match with lefties Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu and Masataka Yoshida. The Tigers have a lefty-heavy outfield featuring Parker Meadows, Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter and Akil Baddoo. They acquired Mark Canha to add a righty bat to their outfield and the signing of infielder Gio Urshela might push righties Matt Vierling and Andy Ibañez into the outfield mix, though those two may also be used at second base with left-handed-hitting rookie Colt Keith. The Blue Jays have a couple of lefty-hitting regulars in Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho. The Twins have a bunch of lefties for their corner outfield/designated hitter rotation in Max Kepler, Matt Wallner and Alex Kirilloff. The White Sox have lefties Dominic Fletcher, Óscar Colás, Zach DeLoach and Gavin Sheets competing for their right field job, though they brought in righty Kevin Pillar on a non-roster pact. The Athletics have lefties Seth Brown and JJ Bleday set for regular roles in their outfield. The Mariners have Luke Raley, Taylor Trammell, Cade Marlowe and Dominic Canzone competing for time in the outfield.

In the National League, the Brewers have lefty swingers Christian Yelich, Sal Frelick and Garrett Mitchell in their outfield. The Reds have Jake Fraley TJ Friedl and Will Benson in their outfield mix, with righties like Spencer Steer and Jonathan India perhaps moving off the infield to help them out. The Padres have a wide open outfield apart from Fernando Tatis Jr.

There are lots of plausible fits right now and injuries will inevitably crop up over the course of the season that create other sensible landing spots. Plenty of veteran players have signed for modest deals in recent days, with Amed Rosario and Urshela each getting $1.5MM to fill roles on the Rays and Tigers, respectively. Randal Grichuk got $2MM from the Diamondbacks and Jurickson Profar $1MM from the Friars. For a fairly modest price, Grossman could be a similar piece for another club.

Free Agent Profile: Michael Lorenzen

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The new year has seen something of a run on mid-rotation arms on the free agent market. Five free agent starters have signed multi-year deals guaranteeing between $28MM and $53MM over the past two weeks alone, and that has left few options for teams hoping to find a capable rotation piece without breaking the bank for a player like Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery. The market isn’t completely devoid of options of that caliber, however. One of the more interesting pieces remaining on the market is right-hander Michael Lorenzen.

Lorenzen began his career with the Reds back in 2015 as a starter, but the then-23-year-old struggled in the role with a brutal 5.40 ERA and matching 5.40 FIP. That difficult rookie season resulted in the righty spending the remainder of his time in Cincinnati has a reliever, while also dabbling in the outfield and as a pinch-hitter. Upon hitting the open market for the first time after the 2021 season, Lorenzen gave up his two-way role in order to return to the starting rotation full time with the Angels. The right-hander performed as a solid, back-end starter in his first season back in a starting role with a 4.24 ERA and 4.31 FIP, though he was limited to just 18 starts by a shoulder strain. Looking at his peripheral numbers, Lorenzen struggled with his command to a 10.5% walk rate during his return to starting in 2022, but struck out a respectable 20.7% of batters faced while generating grounders at an impressive 50.2% clip. That solid, back-end performance earned Lorenzen another shot at starting, this time as a member of the Tigers.

On the surface, Lorenzen’s 2023 season may not seem all that different from his 2022 campaign. While he managed 29 appearances (25 starts), his numbers were largely similar to those he posted the previous season: in his 153 innings of work split between Detroit and Philadelphia, Lorenzen managed a 4.18 ERA and 4.46 FIP that put him more or less in line with his performance as member of the Angels the year prior. Looking under the hood tells a different story, however. Lorenzen’s 18-start stint in Detroit prior to the trade saw the right-hander flash the upside of a solid, mid-rotation arm as he posted a 3.58 ERA with a 3.86 FIP in 105 2/3 innings. While his groundball rate dropped to 42.2% and his strikeout rate declined slightly to 19.9%, the right-hander made up for those declining peripherals by cutting his walk rate by nearly half to a 6.5% figure that was better than league average.

While Lorenzen’s stay in Philadelphia started with an impressive pair of starts that included a 124-pitch no-hitter and lowered his ERA on the season to just 3.23, his season took a tumble from there as he got shelled for 30 runs (27 earned) in 30 1/3 innings of work with a whopping 15 walks against just 18 strikeouts. That disastrous finish to Lorenzen’s 2023 season saw him bumped from the Phillies’ rotation and used sparingly during the club’s playoff run this year. While Lorenzen’s brutal final nine appearances last year can’t be entirely discounted, it should be noted that Lorenzen’s innings total of 153 was a career high, and the first time he reached even 100 innings of work in a season since his MLB debut back in 2015. That he was able to maintain his success through 122 2/3 innings of work across 20 starts before things began to unravel figures to lend hope to the possibility Lorenzen can return to that form in 2024 with more careful innings management.

In terms of potential suitors, the market has been entirely quiet regarding the 32-year-old this winter, though it’s easy to see plenty of speculative fits for his services. The Giants and Angels have both shown considerable interest in bolstering their starting pitching corps throughout the winter, though each may look to aim for more impactful additions than Lorenzen. Teams that hope to add to their rotation but figure to face budget crunches this winter, such as the Padres and Red Sox, could see Lorenzen, who MLBTR projected a guarantee of just $22MM over two years for, as a more financially palatable alternative to splurging for a top-of-the-market arm like Montgomery or Snell. The Orioles, Pirates, Rays, and Twins are among a host of other teams that stand to benefit from additional rotation depth and could see the veteran righty as a more affordable alternative to other options.

Free Agent Profile: Mike Clevinger

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The market for free agent starters has been fairly busy this offseason, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Sonny Gray, and Aaron Nola having come off the board at the top of the market alongside a host of mid-level arms including Kenta Maeda and Seth Lugo. Even the back end of the market has been fairly active, with bounceback arms like Luis Severino and Lance Lynn finding new homes on one-year deals earlier this winter. For all the buzz surrounding the free agent pitching market, however, one name stands out as having not come up in the rumor mill at all to this point in the winter: veteran right-hander Mike Clevinger.

It’s something of a surprise that Clevinger’s market has involved such little fanfare, as the righty was one of the most dominant young arms in the league with Cleveland in the late 2010’s. From 2017 to 2019, Clevinger dominated across 447 2/3 innings of work with a 2.96 ERA that was a whopping 52% better than league average by measure of ERA+. The righty struck out 28.3% of batters faced against a 9.1% walk rate, good for a FIP of 3.32. Among pitchers with at least 400 innings of work across those three seasons, Clevinger’s ERA ranked sixth in the majors behind a quintet of multi-time Cy Young award winners: Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, and Corey Kluber.

Dominant as Clevinger was, the right-hander was shipped from Cleveland to San Diego at the 2020 trade deadline and wound up requiring Tommy John surgery just four starts into his tenure with the Padres. Rehab wiped out his entire 2021 season, and the right-hander returned in 2022 to post the worst season of his career. In 117 1/3 innings of work, Clevinger struggled to a 4.33 ERA with a 4.98 FIP, the first time he posted a ERA+ below the league average since becoming a full-time starter in 2017.

Clevinger’s peripherals also suffered considerably. Though the right-hander entered the 2022 campaign with a strong 27.3% career strikeout rate, he punched out just 18.8% of batters faced in his first year back from surgery. His batted ball metrics suffered as well: while he had generated grounders at a 40.3% clip during his peak years in Cleveland, that figure fell to just 35.2% with the Padres in 2022. The difficult season led Clevinger to sign a one-year, $12MM deal with the White Sox last offseason, and the righty made good on that deal by turning in a solid performance last year.

Clevinger’s time on the south side of Chicago got off to a rough start as he struggled to a 4.84 ERA across his first seven starts, but the right-hander settled in from there to bring his ERA down to just 3.88 by the time a wrist injury sent him to the injured list in mid-June. That success carried over when Clevinger returned to action six weeks later, and he entered the month of September with a sterling 2.45 ERA and solid 3.88 FIP in his last eleven starts. Clevinger mostly cruised through the month of September until his final appearance of the year, where he was torched for six runs in just 1 2/3 innings of work to leave him with a 3.77 ERA and 4.28 FIP on the season.

While Clevinger flashed his previous, dominant form at various points throughout the 2023 season and saw his average fastball velocity tick back up to 94.6, higher than his career average, it seems unlikely the veteran righty would be able to fully rediscover his previous form over a full season. After all, Clevinger’s groundball rate was at a career-worst 30.9% last season and while his strikeout rate did improve over 2022 it still sat at just 20%. That’s a far cry from the 33.9% clip Clevinger punched out batters at back in 2019 and pretty significantly below league average this past year.

Even so, the right-hander figures to be a quality, innings eating veteran who a club can comfortably place in the middle-to-back of their rotation in 2024. While Clevinger’s strikeout and groundball rates left something to be desired last year, he flashed strong command with a walk rate of just 7.3% while maintaining hard-hit and barrel rates significantly better than league average. Combined with his rediscovered velocity, it’s easy to see how the veteran right-hander could be an above average big league starter next season. If he can live up to that billing, the right-hander might prove to be a steal for the club that ultimately signs him this winter.

MLBTR projected Clevinger for a two-year, $26MM deal on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where he placed 30th. That $13MM AAV would be something of a steal for a solid, mid-rotation arm this offseason given the pricey one-year deals arms like Frankie Montas ($16MM), and Jack Flaherty ($14MM) signed on the heels of seasons marred by injury and under performance. Meanwhile, the likes of Lucas Giolito ($19.3MM AAV) and Michael Wacha ($16MM AAV) managed to surpass those marks on multi-year guarantees. While Giolito is three-and-a-half years younger than Clevinger and Wacha has a stronger recent track record, it’s not hard to imagine a scenario where Clevinger posts comparable numbers to either pitcher in 2024 at a lower price point.

The veteran righty has been something of a ghost on the rumor mill this offseason, with few if any clubs directly connected to the right-hander. With that being said, plenty of teams are known to be in the market for starting pitching this winter including the Red Sox, Orioles, Angels, Giants, Yankees, and Cubs. Any of those teams could benefit from adding Clevinger to their rotation mix, and he could prove to be an attractive backup option for teams that either can’t afford or fall short in the bidding for top-of-the-market arms like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, or who are unwilling to meet the asking prices for potential trade candidates like Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber.

Free Agent Profile: Sean Manaea

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Left-hander Sean Manaea has a lengthy track record of being a decent mid-rotation starter, but the past couple of years have been challenging. Overall, he has an earned run average of 4.10 in just over 1,000 career innings at the major league level. He has struck out roughly a quarter of batters faced in each of the past four full seasons and has never had a walk rate higher than 8.4%.

But in 2022, his performance dipped, as his ERA jumped to 4.96 with the Padres. His peripherals were still pretty strong, as he struck out 23.2% of batters faced and walked just 7.5%, but it was nonetheless a poor time for diminished results as he was heading into free agency for the first time.

The Giants took a shot on Manaea, giving him a two-year, $25MM deal that allowed him to opt out after the first season. The club was aggressive in deploying openers, only giving Manaea 10 actual starts, but he logged 117 2/3 innings on the year over 37 appearances. He finished with a 4.44 ERA, 25.7% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. Though those results were more decent than spectacular, he still decided to trigger his opt-out and return to the open market.

Things get a little more interesting when digging deeper into his season, which may give more insight into his decision to try free agency again. Notably, Manaea added a sweeper this year and had great results with it. Per Statcast data, he first threw the pitch on May 30 and ultimately tossed it 214 times, 10.4% of his pitches thrown on the season overall. He felt comfortable throwing it to both righties and lefties, with a perfect split of 107 sweepers thrown to each. That resulted in a huge whiff percentage of 35.1% and a batting line of .140/.161/.163. Even when batters did make contact, the 82.8mph average exit velocity was easily the lowest of any of his offerings.

The impact on his overall results is quite clear. In his first 11 appearances of the year, prior to introducing the sweeper, he had a 6.61 ERA, 28.9% strikeout rate, 12.5% walk rate, 32.6% ground ball rate and eight home runs in just 32 2/3 innings. The rest of the way, he had a 3.60 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate, 44% ground ball rate and six home runs in 85 innings. The Giants gave him four actual starts to finish the year and he posted a 2.25 ERA in those, averaging six innings per start.

This is still a fairly small sample size of results but the change in his arsenal at least gives some reason to believe that it may not just be a fluke. Last month, Driveline tweeted some video of a session with Manaea which showed him also trying out a splitter, perhaps suggesting Manaea is still trying to find yet another gear going forward.

MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents predicted Manaea for a contract of two years and $22MM, an average annual value of $11MM. That’s roughly the going rate for a back-end innings eater these days. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that Lance Lynn got $11MM while Kyle Gibson got $13MM. Jack Flaherty got $14MM and Luis Severino $13MM despite a poor platform seasons, while Frankie Montas got $16MM even though he missed almost all of the year recovering from shoulder surgery. Tyler Mahle got $22MM over two years even though he’s going to miss at least part of the upcoming campaign while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.

If Manaea can maintain the results he showed over the final four months of 2023, he could be a bargain, especially with pitchers like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery set for nine-figure deals. The need for starting pitching is still high and just about every club would benefit from the kind of performance Manaea seems capable of. His market has been very quiet this winter, with the Giants reportedly interested in a reunion but no other suitors publicly mentioned.

Free Agent Profile: Joc Pederson

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Thus far in the offseason, the free agent market has moved significantly faster for pitchers than for hitters. Twenty-two of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents have signed this winter, and 16 of those (including Shohei Ohtani) have been pitchers. Even beyond the top 50, pitchers have made up the majority of notable MLB signings. However, with Ohtani and Jung Hoo Lee off the board, perhaps the market for position players will begin to heat up in the new year.

One particular bat to keep an eye on is Joc Pederson, a two-time All-Star with an .800 OPS across ten big league seasons and 1,140 career games. While he missed the cut-off for MLBTR’s Top 50 list, he is arguably the best hitter remaining among the honorable mentions, and if he rediscovers the success he had in 2022, he could prove to be a bargain for his new club.

Over the first five years of his career, Pederson was a consistent power threat and a walk machine, crushing 123 home runs to go along with a 12.1% walk rate and a .245 isolated power. After a couple of down years in 2020 and ’21, the lefty slugger bounced all the way back in ’22, putting up the best offensive numbers of his career. His .874 OPS ranked seventh in the National League (min. 400 PA), while his 146 wRC+ ranked fifth. He was named to his first All-Star team since his rookie season and was a Silver Slugger finalist in the outfield.

Following his eye-catching 2022 campaign, Pederson accepted a $19.7MM qualifying offer from the Giants, more than tripling his $6MM salary from the previous season. Unfortunately, he was not able to live up to the high expectations he set for himself. His numbers dropped in all three triple-slash categories, and while his .764 OPS was still well above average, it was hardly elite.

Be that as it may, there is plenty of reason for optimism as Pederson enters his age-32 campaign. For one thing, he recorded his highest walk rate since 2015 and the best walk-to-strikeout ratio of his career in 2023. His batting average and on-base percentage still declined, but that could merely be the result of bad luck on balls in play. While his .235 BA was below league average, his .264 xBA (per Baseball Savant) was significantly above average. Moreover, the -0.029 difference between his BA and xBA was the second largest gap among NL hitters (min. 200 balls in play).

In the same vein, the lefty’s .366 xwOBA was right in line with his .367 xwOBA from the previous season. Indeed, Pederson’s Baseball Savant page paints a pretty promising picture overall. His xwOBA ranked in the 90th percentile in MLB, while his 52.2% hard-hit rate ranked in the 96th. On top of that, he set a new career high in maximum exit velocity, crushing one particular pitch at 116.6 mph. Only 13 hitters topped that number in 2023, a list of batters littered with MVP candidates and All-Stars. Needless to say, we’re talking about a hitter who can still demolish the baseball.

With all that in mind, it’s reasonable to presume Pederson will improve upon his .764 OPS and 111 wRC+ in 2024. According to the Steamer projection system at FanGraphs, he has the second-highest projected OPS (.809) among all unsigned free agents. Only Jorge Soler (.813) is ahead of him by a narrow margin, while Michael Brantley has the next highest projection at .799. To be fair, Pederson is unlikely to be an everyday player, and his projections presume a limited amount of exposure to same-handed pitching. Still, any hitter who can produce an .800 OPS on the heavy side of a platoon is a valuable player to have around.

Yet, unlike fellow outfield/DH bats Teoscar Hernández and Soler, Pederson hasn’t been connected with many teams so far this winter. Given the shallow market for impact bats, especially left-handed hitters, it’s somewhat strange he hasn’t generated more interest.

Around the end of the regular season, Pederson linked himself to his then-team, the Giants, telling Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that he would love to return to San Francisco in 2024. “I really like it here,” he explained. “It’s a great group of guys. I love the way they run the organization.” While such comments aren’t always particularly revelatory, especially when they concern a player’s current team, it’s worth noting that Pederson chose to return to the Giants in 2023 instead of testing the open market after his All-Star season. In addition, he grew up rooting for the Giants, and he has spent all but one year of his professional career playing in his home state of California.

However, the Giants are almost certainly out of room for Pederson after signing KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee to a six-year, $113MM deal earlier this month. In addition to Lee, the Giants have four veteran outfielders on the roster, two of whom, Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski, are left-handed hitters with mediocre career platoon splits against same-handed pitching – much like Pederson himself.

Pederson also spurred brief speculation he was signing with the Phillies this winter after posting a picture of himself posing at Citizens Bank Park to his personal Instagram account. The rumors were shortlived, however, as Todd Zolecki of MLB.com quickly set the record straight: “It doesn’t mean he’s signing with the Phillies. They haven’t even talked this offseason.”

To that end, Pederson never made much sense for the Phillies. Philadelphia already has a left-handed full-time DH (Kyle Schwarber) and a left-handed outfielder with sizeable platoon splits (Brandon Marsh). If president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski is going to sign another bat, he will presumably target a right-handed hitter with a bit more defensive versatility.

The only team Pederson has been connected with by any source other than himself is the Blue Jays, who expressed interest in the outfielder earlier this month, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet. Davidi’s report came before Toronto signed Kevin Kiermaier and Isiah Kiner-Falefa, but that doesn’t mean the club couldn’t add Pederson, too. General manager Ross Atkins mentioned early in the offseason that he would consider adding a primary DH, and the Jays should also have playing time available in both outfield corners when the injury-prone Kiermaier and George Springer need some time off their feet. That said, the Blue Jays have also been heavily linked to Cody Bellinger this winter, with Bob Nightengale of USA Today calling them the favorites a couple of weeks back. Signing Bellinger, another left-handed outfielder, would likely take Toronto out of the running for Pederson.

So, beyond those three clubs, where could Pederson wind up? One possible landing spot is the Angels, who have room in the outfield and could certainly use a left-handed power bat. By all accounts, GM Perry Minasian isn’t planning to start a rebuild, and after missing out on Ohtani, he should have plenty of cash to spend. According to the estimates provided by Roster Resource, the Angels’ payroll currently sits about $60MM below the final tally from last season.

Another possibility is the Nationals, who are reportedly seeking a left-handed power bat this winter. If that is indeed the case, there might be no better option than Pederson. It’s hard to imagine the Nationals are in on Bellinger, or that Bellinger would choose to sign with a rebuilding club. Meanwhile, Brantley is an excellent left-handed hitter, but power hasn’t been a part of his offensive toolkit in several years. Brandon Belt is the only other free agent who looks to be an impactful left-handed hitter, but it’s anyone’s guess if he can keep mashing in his age-36 season.

Finally, the Mariners are one more suitor worth keeping in mind. After trading Jarred Kelenic and non-tendering Mike Ford, Seattle could use another lefty hitter. Mitch Garver figures to get most of the playing time at DH, but the Mariners have room for an upgrade in either one of the outfield corners. Considering president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto’s long-standing aversion to signing free agent position players to longer-term contracts, Pederson seems like a good fit; he might be the best free agent outfielder who would be open to signing a one-year deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Profile: Marcus Stroman

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The free agent market has been slower than usual this winter, but one area of the market that has stayed fairly consistently active throughout the offseason has been the starting pitching market. More than half of the league entered the offseason in hopes of acquiring a starter or two this winter, and deals have come together for many of them. While the Yoshinobu Yamamoto sweepstakes have held things up for many top-of-the-market options, potential mid-rotation arms have seen no such delay in free agency as players like Kenta Maeda, Lucas Giolito, Seth Lugo, Eduardo Rodriguez, Michael Wacha, and Nick Martinez have all been among the players to come off the board since free agency officially opened in early November.

That flurry of activity has left the pickings fairly slim in this area of the market, even as the top of the market still features the likes of Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery and plenty of lower-level options like James Paxton and Sean Manaea remain available. One mid-rotation piece who has yet to be taken off the market is right-hander Marcus Stroman, who opted out of the final year and $21MM on his contract with the Cubs to test free agency last month. Since Stroman’s decision, there has been little public interest in the right-handers services. The Royals reportedly engaged with the righty earlier this offseason, though the club added both Lugo and Wacha to their rotation since then and appear to be done making significant additions to the roster.

It’s somewhat understandable that Stroman hasn’t generated major interest so far this offseason. The right-hander is entering his age-33 season, meaning he’s older than the likes of Rodriguez, Wacha, and Giolito. What’s more, the righty is coming off a injury-marred campaign in Chicago where he missed six weeks due to a rib cartilage fracture and posted a brutal 8.29 ERA across his final 11 appearances with the Cubs. That clubs may be hesitant about a pitcher entering his mid-thirties who struggled with injuries and ineffectiveness in the second half last year is hardly surprising, but that lack of interest could make Stroman one of the more undervalued assets available in free agency this offseason.

After all, Stroman was among the most dominant pitchers in baseball in the first half, with a sterling 2.28 ERA in 98 2/3 innings of work across his first sixteen starts of the season. That dominant performance earned Stroman the second All Star nod of his career, and while the righty’s 3.33 FIP and .235 BABIP indicate some of that exceptional run prevention may have been due to good fortune, that FIP was still considerably better than league average and his incredible 59.9% groundball rate surely helped to explain his unusually low home run rate. Meanwhile, Stroman’s atrocious results in the second half were generally not backed up by underlying metrics; his aforementioned 8.29 ERA in the second half was more than four runs higher than his far more palatable 4.23 FIP, and his strikeout and walk rates only worsened slightly as he punched out 19.3% of batters faced while walking 9.6%.

Taken together, Stroman’s 2023 season paints a picture of a playoff-caliber, mid-rotation arm: the right-hander posted a 3.95 ERA (113 ERA+) with a 3.58 FIP in 136 2/3 innings of work while striking out 20.7% of batters, walking 9%, and generating grounders at a 57.7% clip across 27 appearances (25 starts). That was good for the 18th-best FIP in baseball last year among pitchers who made at least 25 starts, sandwiched between Montgomery and Mets right-hander Kodai Senga. If Stroman can as much as match his peripheral numbers from 2023 with improved health and batted ball luck, he figures to be a quality piece who could improve the majority of rotations around the league. And while both of his seasons in Chicago saw the right-hander miss time due to injury, Stroman has made 32+ starts four times in his career, most recently in 2021 as a member of the Mets.

The Cubs have been connected to pitchers such as Shota Imanaga in free agency and Shane Bieber via trade this offseason, and Stroman previously publicly expressed his desire to remain in Chicago long-term over the summer, ahead of the trade deadline. While a reunion between the sides has not been rumored to this point in the offseason, the Cubs certainly remain a fit for the righty’s services as they look for an additional arm to pair with Justin Steele, Kyle Hendricks, and Jameson Taillon in the rotation. Looking beyond Chicago, the Red Sox are in the hunt for pitching and could benefit from pairing Stroman’s stable, mid-rotation production with higher variance pitchers like Giolito and Brayan Bello, while the Giants, Padres, Yankees, and Rangers are among the many teams who could look for rotation upgrades going forward this offseason.

Though many of those clubs would surely prefer to add a player such as Snell, Montgomery, or even Imanaga to their rotation mix, each of those southpaws is expected to garner $100MM or more on the open market. At this point in the offseason, teams hoping to add a playoff-caliber starter without breaking the bank will be hard-pressed to find a better option than Stroman, who was projected by MLBTR for just two years and $44MM in our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list. That appears to be more or less par for the course in the mid-rotation market, as Giolito landed a two-year, $38.5MM deal with the Red Sox while Lugo received a three-year, $45MM guarantee from the Royals. If Stroman does garner a similar contract to the other mid-rotation arms available this winter, it’s easy to imagine the deal proving to be among the more cost-effective pitching signings of the offseason should he manage a full, healthy season in 2024.

Free Agent Profile: Gary Sánchez

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Disappointment occurs when reality doesn’t meet expectations. That can result from reality not being very good but it’s also possible for expectations to be too high. If there’s an upcoming movie or album that you build up in your head as the greatest of all time and it turns out to be only pretty good, that will probably register as a disappointment to you. All of this is a tee-up for this question: What if Gary Sánchez is actually pretty good?

Once upon a time, the expectations for Sánchez were so incredibly high. A top 100 prospect on his way up the minor league ladder with the Yankees, he burst onto the scene in 2016, hitting 20 home runs in just 53 games. He followed that up with 33 homers in his first full campaign in 2017, hitting .278/.345/.531 for a wRC+ of 131. He still hadn’t qualified for arbitration at that time, giving the Yanks years of cheap club control and leading many to give the nickname “The Sanchize” to the young catcher.

But he hasn’t been at that level since, which is why many now view him as a disappointment or a bust. In 2018, he hit below the Mendoza line while battling injuries and only getting into 89 games. He bounced back with a 34-homer campaign in 2019, but that was the “juiced ball” season and his batting average, on-base percentage and defense were all worse than in 2017. His 2.4 wins above replacement from FanGraphs were barely half of the 4.3 fWAR he had in 2017.

In 2020, Sánchez hit another 10 home runs in the shortened season but his .147 BA and .253 OBP were obviously rough. He struck out in 36% of his plate appearances. There were rumors that the Yankees were considering a non-tender, rather than giving him a raise on his $5MM salary. A poll of MLBTR readers from that offseason saw just 36.42% of voters suggest the club should run him back out as the starter again in 2021, with 41.04% suggesting a trade or non-tender and another 22.53% suggesting Sánchez be moved into a backup role.

The club did eventually tender him a contract, with the two sides settling on a $6.35MM salary for 2021. He went on to have a decent year, hitting 23 home runs and reducing his strikeout rate to 27.5%. His .204/.307/.423 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 101. That was enough to get him tendered a contract for 2022, though he was flipped to the Twins as part of the Josh Donaldson deal.

His one year in Minnesota yielded mixed results. His 16 home runs in 128 games were well shy of his previous power production, leading to a .205/.282/.377 batting line and 89 wRC+. But he showed some positive developments on defense. Defensive Runs Saved had him at -10 in 2021 but he jumped to +1 with the Twins. Framing metrics from FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus gave him a positive mark after being in negative territory the previous three years. Statcast gave him a league average zero for his blocking, an improvement from the negative numbers in the previous four campaigns. Despite the subpar offense, he still tallied 1.3 fWAR.

A free agent for the first time going into 2023, Sánchez found a fairly tepid market. He lingered on the open market until the end of March, when he signed a minor league deal with the Giants. He opted out of that deal in early May and secured another minor league pact, this time with the Mets. His contract was selected by that club but he was designated for assignment after just three games.

The Padres claimed him off waivers in late May and he went on a heater from there. He hit 19 home runs in just 75 games, striking out in just 25.1% of his plate appearances. His .217/.288/.492 batting line led to a wRC+ of 111. His defense was also strong, with a +7 DRS and positive framing grades from Statcast and Baseball Prospectus. He tallied 1.7 fWAR in less than half a season, getting shut down in early September due to a wrist fracture.

There’s also the game-calling to consider, which is hard to measure but definitely has value. Martín Maldonado has continued to get work despite being one of the worst hitters in baseball in his career, largely on the strength of his defense and work with a pitching staff. His defensive numbers were poor in 2023 but he was still able to get $4MM from the White Sox for 2024, with the Sox presumably willing to give out that kind of cash for some intangible benefit from Maldonado’s ability to tease more value of their pitchers.

Sánchez joining the Padres coincided with Blake Snell turning around his season. Through 10 starts this year, Snell had an earned run average of 5.04. But he posted a miniscule 1.18 ERA over his final 22 outings, lowering his season ERA to 2.25 and earning himself a second Cy Young Award. Sánchez caught the first 18 of those 22 games, missing the last four due to his wrist injury.

That may be a coincidence but Snell himself spoke positively of the pairing to Dennis Lin of The Athletic during the season. “I’ve always heard about him offensively, but I love him,” Snell said at that time. “He blocked, like, a 97-mile-an-hour fastball in the dirt. I threw a curveball and it hit the grass and he blocked it. I mean, I don’t see the problem. Even calling the game, we had a game plan; we executed. I even put a lot of trust in him, like, what do you want? Like, you tell me. … I trust him on that. He’s smart.” The praise didn’t end there. “Framing’s good. Framing, blocking, he’s got a hose,” said Snell. “No one’s even trying to run on me. And I’ve been, like, 1.5, 1.6 (seconds to home). I really trust him because of how good he is back there. It brings a lot of comfort. So I’ve been really happy about it.”

Now Sánchez is on the open market again, with very little smoke around his free agency. The Padres reportedly had interest in a reunion, though that was before they acquired Kyle Higashioka in the Juan Soto deal. No other club has been connected to Sánchez in rumors. That’s despite the fact that there are clubs with obvious needs behind the plate, including the Marlins, Rockies, Red Sox, Cubs, Angels, Rays and Pirates.

For some people, Sánchez will always be a bust, with his incredible early-career work having set the hopes so high. While the recent work is obviously not the same as in 2016-2017, the result is still a solid everyday player. His 8.6 fWAR dating back to 2018 his 11th in baseball among primary catchers. One of those ahead of him is Buster Posey, so he’s actually 10th among those that are still active. He’s never produced less than 1.3 fWAR in a full season. His batting average seems destined to remain low, but his power has been present in every season apart from his 2022 stint with the Twins. On defense, his blocking and framing have improved in recent years, while his arm has always been strong. The game-calling is tough to quantify but Snell’s results and high praise are positive omens.

The total package paints Sánchez as a decent everyday catcher, which could lead to pretty good money in free agency. In recent winters, Christian Vázquez got $30MM over three years, Omar Narváez got two years and $15MM, while Yan Gomes got $13MM over two. This winter, Mitch Garver got $24MM, Victor Caratini $12MM and Tom Murphy $8.3MM, all on two-year deals. Garver and Murphy have checkered injury histories while Caratini has never been a potent offensive threat. Sánchez could perhaps be in line for a much better trip to free agency than a year ago, so long as the expectations are set appropriately.

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