The Mariners’ plans in left field have looked fairly straightforward since the team signed AJ Pollock to a one-year deal last month, but president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto nonetheless confirmed to reporters last night that the expectation is for left field to a platoon between Pollock and one of Jarred Kelenic or Taylor Trammell (Twitter link via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times).
Both Kelenic, 23, and Trammell, 25, are recent top-100 prospects who at one point were candidates to hold down long-term spots in the Seattle outfield. Kelenic, in particular, was touted as a potential star but has struggled in the big leagues to this point despite a .302/.372/.574 output in 537 plate appearances at the Triple-A level. His struggles against fellow lefties have been particularly pronounced, but Kelenic did turn in a .249/.330/.503 slash against right-handed pitching in 2022 (Triple-A and MLB combined). Trammell, meanwhile, hit .274/.365/.527 against righties between Triple-A and MLB. There’s some understandable hope, then, that a platoon arrangement with one of Kelenic/Trammell and Pollock (.286/.316/.619 against lefties in 2022) could form a productive tandem.
Trammell was heralded as the superior defender of the pair during his prospect days, though neither he nor Kelenic has posted standout defensive grades thus far in the big leagues. Kelenic has more experience in the corners and has drawn above-average marks for his work there. He’s also been more apt to barrel the ball and has been less strikeout-prone, though his 29.9% mark in the big leagues is obviously problematic.
Both Kelenic and Trammell were featured in a piece by Baseball America’s Kyle Glaser, wherein he polled scouts for opinions on some recent top prospects who’ve graduated to the Majors but struggled to establish themselves. Kelenic drew more praise between the two, particularly for substantial defensive improvements, but scouts who spoke to Glaser offered fairly bearish views of both players’ swings at this point. However, Mariners GM Justin Hollander said yesterday that hitting coach Jarret DeHart has been working with Kelenic and gone through a motion-capture breakdown of his swing this offseason, and the results have been “over-the-top awesome” (link via Corey Brock of The Athletic).
Both Kelenic and Trammell are still young, and it’s fairly common to see a swing change or mechanical adjustment bring about major turnarounds in a player’s outlook. The Mariners clearly aren’t giving up on either player yet, though with both entering their final minor league option year, this is a crucial season for Kelenic and Trammell. Should they falter, the M’s have another lefty-swinging outfield bat who’s nearly ready for a Major League look; 25-year-old Cade Marlowe is on the 40-man roster and turned in a combined .287/.377/.487 slash between 120 Double-A games and 13 Triple-A games in 2022.
Kelenic and Trammell aren’t the only once-vaunted Mariners prospects who’ve turned in shaky big league results to this point. Righty Matt Brash won the fifth starter’s job out of spring training in 2022 but was tagged for 17 runs while posting a 19-to-17 K/BB ratio through his first 20 innings (five starts). That prompted the team to option Brash back to Triple-A Tacoma, and when he returned in July, he was used exclusively as a reliever.
That’ll be Brash’s role in 2023 as well, Dipoto confirmed (Twitter link via Divish). It’s easy to see why the Mariners are intrigued by the switch. Brash has been a starter for most of his career, but he returned to the Majors and obliterated opposing lineups while working in short relief last summer; from July 9 through season’s end, the 24-year-old pitched to a 2.35 ERA with a huge 33.9% strikeout rate. His 12.6% walk rate still needs refinement, but Brash’s heater jumped from an average of 96.3 mph in the rotation to 97.8 mph out of the ’pen and his 14% swinging-strike rate was excellent.
It’s always possible that there will be rotation innings for Brash down the road, but the Mariners look to have several spots locked up long-term. Ace Luis Castillo signed a five-year, $108MM extension after being acquired in a trade last summer, and left-hander Robbie Ray inked a five-year, $115MM in free agency last offseason. Young arms Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, meanwhile, are controllable for another five and six seasons, respectively.
Both Gilbert and Kirby have made good on their status as former first-rounders and top prospects, quickly cementing themselves as high-quality big league hurlers. And, as Dipoto tells it, the duo won’t be facing any hard innings limitations in 2023 (via Brock). Gilbert threw 185 2/3 innings over the life of 32 regular-season starts in 2022, while Kirby notched a combined 156 2/3 innings between Double-A, Triple-A and the big leagues. Both pitchers turned in an ERA in the low-3.00s with sharp strikeout and walk rates (Kirby, in particular). The pair might be eased into spring work, but the goal seems to be for each to make a five-inning start in the late stages of camp, setting the stage for them to work without limits once the season begins.
The group of Castillo, Ray, Gilbert and Kirby is among the best rotation quartets in baseball, but the fifth spot in the rotation remains a source of at least some uncertainty. Seattle has a pair of candidates in Marco Gonzales, a mainstay over the past five years, and KBO returnee Chris Flexen, who’s posted a 3.66 ERA in two seasons since signing in Seattle. Both pitchers have been floated as possible trade candidates throughout the winter. Gonzales is owed a combined $18.5MM from 2023-24, while Flexen will earn $8MM in 2023 before becoming a free agent in the offseason.
There’s been little indication of serious trade talks involving either in recent weeks, but it’s certainly possible that another club will show increased interest once early-spring injuries inevitably begin to arise. Then again, having both on hand gives the Mariners themselves an important safety net in the event of an in-house injury, so there’s little pressure to force a deal if the return isn’t meaningful.
If Pollock is strictly a platoon player in LF, who is the starting DH? Does LaStella, being position-less and left-handed make him the primary DH?
The Mariners gave at least one DH at-bat to 19 players in 2022 and to 13 players in 2021. The last time they had one player log more than 300 PAs as a designated hitter was Daniel Vogelbach in 2019.
They’ll rotate players through the spot to keep everyone fresh and maximize pitching matchups. I’d expect Pollock and Teoscar Hernandez to get quite a few reps in the spot, particularly against left-handed pitchers, as the Mariners can plug Sam Haggerty and his plus glove into the outfield on those days. (Haggerty hits lefties quite well but has struggled against righties throughout his career.)
I was going to say, that’s a pretty goood analogy then I went up top to read your name, and sure enough…
To be honest I was a little discourage in Kelenic development but because of there need, and lovefest they were in a hurry to move him along not exactly fare to Kelenic in all likely- ness I can’t see him moving anywhere unless it’s back to Tacoma he and Trammel as well. Nonetheless the M’s are in a good place to get whatever help they need..
My guess on the opening day DH spot against Bieber:
Taylor Trammell
Against lefties I think the option is going to be Tom Murphy early on.
Dark horse: Evan White is healthy during the spring, rakes at the plate (a big if there) and pushes his way into the starting lineup against lefties, leaving Ty to DH or POSSIBLY attempt to recapture the versatility he had earlier in his career
Hard to imagine both Kelenic and Trammell making the roster since the bench is basically set (Murphy/LaStella/Moore/Haggerty), so if Trammell is in the opening day lineup it will be in LF and Kelenic will be in AAA. Likewise, Moore may well be the starting catcher against most lefties, though Raleigh could get some DH time on those days despite his power shortage vs. southpaws. And not sure who White might bump from the 26-man, given his lack of defensive versatility, though I guess if he was a world-beater this spring the M’s might try to figure something out.
BBB, I am not convinced that La Stella will be the lefty bat off the bench/part time player over Trammell. I actually think that will be more of a competition type thing in ST. On paper you would expect the veteran who just signed a nice deal within the past few years to get that spot, but TT is a talented kid and he is playing for his career as a Mariner this ST. And we have La Stella for the league minimum, I don’t think they would have any qualms simply letting him go if the bay is quiet in March.
BUT, shoot, an injury or two and we could see La Stella and TT together on opening day.
Will be interesting to see how this all develops!
Performance obviously will matter, but seems like La Stella should have an edge since he could be the corner IF backup the Mariners said they needed. But yeah, will be interesting
What’s with Evan White?
Bad hernia, bad hip, a couple surgeries. Poor guy has had some rough luck. Reports are that he is 100% and ready to rock going into the spring. With the financial commitment the team has still to him, they want him to come back and play, for sure.
Plus he’s very good defensive 1B.
I think it will be tough to use Murphy as a primary DH unless you are going to carry a third catcher. That might not be an awful idea, because I think you want to give Big Dumper time to ease back in after his off season surgery. But it would be tough to have the only two catchers both in the lineup in case of an injury.
If they have any confidence in Hummel behind the plate, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Cal DH vs. LHP while Murphy catches as Hummel would give them an emergency option.
That said, Hummel is probably behind Trammell in pecking-order for a roster spot, so I’m not anticipating that.
I don’t think they would use Trammell as the DH when his opportunities are going to be limited to begin with. He’s a better defensive option.
But there isn’t even room for him on the roster if Kelenic gets LF (vs. RHPs), barring injury. Far more likely it’s a lot of rotating with Hernández, Pollock, and La Stella.
Murphy is almost certainly going to catch when they face LHPs.
Do you think TT>JK defensively? That is an interesting debate. Both are great athletes. I think JK has the makings of a well above average corner outfielder. In center, he is a bit overmatched.
Whereas, I think TT can probably cover more ground than JK but doesn’t have the arm, nor does he get the great jumps off the bat that JK gets with that laser intensity.
Yeah, I would put Trammell ahead of Kelenic defensively because he’s better in CF and is perfectly fine in a corner, even if Kelenic has the edge there.
I’m not thrilled that every OF option for Seattle vs. RHPs is unproven or inexperienced, but it is what it is.
Given the iptions, it should probably be Kelenic on the opening day roster.
Keel IX and Trammell have to prove that they aren’t simply AAAA players. This year is make or break for them.
*Kelenic
The Mariners would be foolish to trade Flexen or Gonzales. Starting Rotation depth is the most important thing in baseball. There absolutely will be injuries and teams implode when they bring up AAA guys for too many spot starts. Guys like Matt Brash who’s stuff can play up in the bullpen but also have the ability to give you rotation innings are beyond valuable. The Mariners have a nice team and their depth is the best it’s been in decades
Astros fan- IMO Your Pitching depth, rotation and BP was your teams biggest asset in capturing another WS last yr. Pitching depth was also the main force behind our playoff run. It will be interesting to see if and how the shift rule affects both of our Pitching Staffs.
If I’m reading between the lines here it sounds like you might be a little worried that it will be difficult to have another fully healthy Rotation this coming season? I know we are in Seattle. There has been a lot of talk in the Seattle fan community and local media centered on the idea that our rotation cant get lucky 2 seasons in a row. I’m with you though- one cannot have enough established ML Pitching. I hope we keep both Marco and Flexen.
There are plenty of Ms fans who want Marco and or Flexen traded for 2 reasons- 1) because they feel like our lineup has not improved enough and its still greatly inferior to HOU’s 2) We have 2-3 good young SP prospects knocking on the door. Specifically Bryce Miller, Emerson Hancock and Taylor Dollard
I’m an Astros fan, but I also have tons of respect for Gonzales and Flexen. Sure, neither one is an overpowering K guy, but they’ve proven they’re dependable, especially Marco. The Ms will be fun to watch this season.
Must be nice to have all that depth said the White Sox fan.
Brash was given the Rookie treatment by umpires at the start of the season, similar to JROD. He became more inconsistent throwing strikes as he was searching for the ultra-squeezed zone.
I disagree. He was simply wild AF and it got worse as he went through the lineup a second time. He can be a nasty two inning reliever with his fastball/slider combo.
He had 10 BBs in his 2nd and 3rd starts combined. I was at the 3rd game vs the Royals. The umpires definitely contributed to his struggles.
He was squeezed on maybe two of those ten walks. Otherwise he was nowhere near the zone. The strike zone data is free to go look up. And when he wasn’t walking them, he was throwing fastballs down the middle.
Flexen will not become a free agent after this year, rather he will enter arbitration. The M’s effectively bought out his pre-arb years with the contract they gave him but they still get the standard 6 years of team control for a pre-arb player.
@3cardmonty They go straight to free agency if they played in Korea or Japan.
No they do not. I researched this a few months ago when I was as wrong about it as you are now.
Allright, I’ll go hit the books again. Appreciate it.
This website disagrees with you
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/mariners-trade-rumors-chris-flexen-marco-gonzales.html
Flexen is in fact a free agent after this season. His stint in Korea changed his status. Arbitration no longer applies under his contract.
He’d be more valuable if he was controllable longer.
Never mind BR and Spotrac. Jason Martinez has it updated. You can find it here: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/mariners
BR and Sportrac are indeed wrong!! Mariners writer Corey Brock (of the Athletic) just recently confirmed that Chris Flexen IS a FA after this coming 2023 season. Even Corey was not 100% sure until he spoke with Mariners FO personnel.
A few months back I was reading an Athletic article by Corey Brock I reached out to him to clear up the confusion once and for all. Corey got back to me after speaking directly with the Mariners Org- as much as I’d like the insurance of 4 more yrs with Flexen his current deal with SEA ends after the 2023 WS
If that’s the case then MLB.com is also incorrect: “If a player with fewer than six years of service time signs with a club, he remains under the control of that club until reaching the requisite service time to reach free agency — even if the contract he signed does not cover the remaining years until that point.”
https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/free-agency
I’m going by MLB.com: “If a player with fewer than six years of service time signs with a club, he remains under the control of that club until reaching the requisite service time to reach free agency — even if the contract he signed does not cover the remaining years until that point.”
https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/free-agency
A player has to be released to sign with an international team.
This was debated heavily among Mariner fans. Cory Brock of the Athletic, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times, and I believe Shannon Drayer of 710 ESPN all covered this.
So did Fangraphs, hence Roster Resources having him listed as a FA in 2024.
Want a DH? Trade for the Tigers Austin Meadows. Tigers need young players on offense…flip Kelenic to them. Meadows hit 27 home runs the year before the Tigers grabbed him and the shine has gone off Kelenic. Change of scenery for both might be good.
I’d love to see Kelenic succeed and get his baseball career going as all had hoped for him. I just don’t know if that possible with the way he wired. I believe Kelenic problem is he to high strong and gets into his head way to much when he not performing the way he wants. Just some of his reaction after striking out at the plate are reactionary outburst of his frustrations. Some mind coaching in this area might do wonders for him
You can start a sentence with meanwhile. I promise you it’s ok. Certainly don’t put in the middle of two sentences in the same article.
Besides, I know you like long sentences Steve, so here’s a way to take these two ugly ones, with all their problematic commas:
“Trammell, meanwhile, hit .274/.365/.527 against righties between Triple-A and MLB. There’s some understandable hope, then, that a platoon arrangement with one of Kelenic/Trammell and Pollock (.286/.316/.619 against lefties in 2022) could form a productive tandem.”
… and make it into one that doesn’t interrupt itself every other word!
“Meanwhile, Trammell hit .274/.365/.527 against righties between Triple-A and MLB, so there’s some understandable hope that a platoon arrangement with one of Kelenic/Trammell and Pollock (.286/.316/.619 against lefties in 2022) could form a productive tandem.”
Finally, don’t do this:
“And, as Dipoto tells it, the duo won’t be facing any hard innings limitations in 2023 (via Brock).”
You’re killing babies with these commas. Take the one after and out and save us all.