The Diamondbacks and outfielder Corbin Carroll are in agreement on an eight-year extension worth at least $111MM in guaranteed money. The deal also contains a $28MM club option for the 2031 season, and an additional $20MM is available in escalators covering the 2029-31 seasons. Carroll is represented by CAA Sports.
The deal begins with a $5MM signing bonus for Carroll and a $1MM salary this season. Carroll will then earn $3MM in 2024, $5MM in 2025, $10MM in 2026, $12MM in 2027, $14MM in 2028, and then $28MM in each of the 2029 and 2030 seasons. The $28MM club option for 2031 contains a $5MM buyout. The $20MM in escalator clauses are mostly related to Carroll’s finishes in awards voting during the course of the deal.
The extension will buy out the remainder of Carroll’s club-controlled years, as well as at least two of Carroll’s free agent years, depending on whether or not the option is exercised. Since Carroll is only 22 years old, he’ll still be able to hit free agency at age 31 even if the D’Backs to pick up that option year.
It’s an aggressive move from Arizona to lock up the future face of their franchise, as Carroll is the centerpiece of what the D’backs hope is a new wave of young talent to their big league roster. The team has also made history with this deal, as this is the largest contract ever signed for a player with fewer than 100 days of Major League service time (and no experience in foreign leagues), comfortably eclipsing the $70MM Atlanta gave Michael Harris last year.
Carroll debuted for the Diamondbacks last season and hit .260/.330/.500 with four home runs over 115 plate appearances. He also provided plenty of value in the field, earning five Outs Above Average in his small amount of work in the outfield. Crucially, Carroll fell 15 plate appearances short of reaching 130 last season, which means he’ll still be eligible for Rookie of the Year honors in 2023.
The 16th overall pick, Carroll quickly made a name for himself as an exciting young prospect coming through the Diamondbacks’ system. He hit .299/.409/.487 in his first year of pro ball as a 19-year-old in 2019, then missed the 2020 minor league season due to the pandemic. A dislocated shoulder saw him miss significant time in 2021, but he made up for it in 2022, belting 24 home runs and hitting .307/.425/.611 across three minor league levels to earn his first call up to the big leagues.
The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked Carroll as his top overall prospect in the sport recently, citing his “plus power” and “advanced plate discipline” while labeling him a “true center fielder”. There’s no question Carroll is one of the game’s brightest stars, and the type of player teams dream of building a roster around.
Carroll’s name did come up in trade chatter earlier this winter as the Diamondbacks looked to ease a bit of an outfield logjam, but it always seemed he was off-limits and the team ultimately wound up sending Daulton Varsho to Toronto for Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Law ranked the Diamondbacks as having the fourth best farm system in the game, and indeed the team is well setup to contend in the future with a bevy of young talent on the way. Carroll is the big name there, but Moreno, Jordan Lawlar, Druw Jones and co will mean the team has plenty of talent arriving over the next few seasons.
As far as the financials go, the D’Backs have placed a big bet on a player with only 32 MLB games under his belt. However, if Carroll comes anywhere close to living up to the hype, the extension will become a very good piece of business from GM Mike Hazen. It’s unclear yet how the contract will be distributed, but it comes with a $13.875MM AAV. Arizona has a lot of money coming off the books this year, and with only $32MM in guaranteed payroll for 2025 (Carroll accounts for almost half of that). While the Diamondbacks have traditionally been a mid-range spender at best, they still have a good deal of payroll flexibility for the team to make external additions, or perhaps to sign other extensions with members of their young core.
Steve Gilbert of MLB.com was the first to report that the two sides had reached an agreement. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reported earlier in the day that Carroll and the Diamondbacks were “making progress” on an extension, and Piecoro also had (Twitter links) details on the escalator clauses and the year-to-year salary breakdown.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
holy overpay
More like holy team friendly deal
for a guy that hit .260 in his lone big league year of 30 games?
It’s almost like they’re paying for what they think he will be…
And he also had a 133 ops plus in that span that you’re trying to downplay lmao
Big risk for the team and a great decision by Carroll.
In 32 games. Miguel Andjuar put up a 129 wRC+ in 149 games in 2018. There is a lot of risk here.
Lol bringing up batting average as argument. anyway, this could turn out nice, he’s one of if not the best prospect in baseball.
@Braves Fan 85 —
Context is everything. 115 PA. 133 OPS+
Seriously, who still values AVG even in fantasy baseball? Guy is the fastest man in MLB with pop and OBP and a nice glove. Some risk, but nearly what some think it is.
Oh I’m not saying it’s not risky. Like I said, they’re paying him on what they think he will be. But potentially missing out on a bargain deal for a guy with his pedigree because he hit .260 is incredibly funny reasoning.
@,rundmc
Exactly
Small sample size. Excellent prospect but way too early for this, but hey…..not my money
Very team friendly deal.
I used to poop my pants… but my parents believed in me, and I eventually grew up, made progress and stopped pooping my pants. Now I even wipe on my own.
Moral of the story: it’s still REALLY early, and I like his chances.
Those guys Mike Trout and Aaron Judge – go look at their first season.
Ya gotta do it really early with this level of prospect. If you wait until he wins ROY and really begins getting confident he can do this he won’t sign, bet on himself and get a deal north of 300 million+ in the future. Arizona clearly believes he’s the future there and I don’t blame them.
That’s retroactive cherry picking though. You have to consider all the busts when you also consider the Trouts and Judges.
The point is that even the best players have bad starts to their career…. And even the worst players have great starts to their careers..
The point is – what a guy does in his first season doesn’t give you much intel on what he’s going to do for the rest of his career.
I’m looking specifically at the Braves and Rays franchises. This is how they operate and how Tampa has been able to stay competitive with little payroll. Im think of Franco and Acuna as prime examples.
Well your rather crude analogy implied people always improve as it’s very uncommon for adults to soil themselves. So hopefully you can understand my confusion.
It’s a “very team friendly deal” only if you don’t consider he’s got five years of team control rolled into the total contract.
You have 2 fundamental choices as a GM. Choice 1 you can pay for past performance and this is the model that the big market clubs follow. A small market club that doesn’t have the same finances can never compete in that game. So then you have choice 2, you can overpay your potential and hope they hit their upside. If you have a strong scouting department this is a possibility. If a prospect doesn’t play along you trade them when their value is high. Either choice can lead to winning you do it right but if you got budget restrictions and don’t have Steve Cohen dollars you probably prefer option 2 if ya an owner.
Even then, assuming the team picks up the option, that’s 3 years of his FA where the most expensive season is that $23MM. If you do that value for all three seasons, that’s $69MM out of the $134MM; Or $65MM for his 6 years of service time.
We’ve seen how large some of the amounts some of the most gifted players (tools wise) receive. Sometimes nearing $20MM for the penultimate Arb season (and there’s still one year of increases after those seasons).
An average of ~11MM for each of the six seasons? I’m super comfortable with giving him increased value on the front end to reduce the cost on the back end.
The only relevance Andujar has is that the biggest risk is injury. He was never a top 100 talent much less a top 3 2 years running. Luis Robert, maybe Franco, are much better comparisons.
Yeah, and water is wet. You think you are coming up with some hot take here?
A cursory check shows Andujar was Fangraphs #14 prospect overall and #2 on the Yankees in 2018 with a 60 FV rating.
So was Jurickson Profar. Still not a guarantee.
Best prospect in baseball?? Come on man.
I like McCarthy better. Fangraphs projection is better for McCarthy than Carroll. Carroll is 5’10” 165 lbs and McCarthy is 6’2″ 215. Carroll looks like a little boy. McCarthy looks like a grown man. Only time will tell. Still looks like a potentially good signing. I’d like to see McCarthy signed long term, too.
I stand corrected on Andujar. He was also #65 on MLB. My point still stands, however weekend, that Andujar was not in the same league talent or projectability wise.
Except not a single projection system has a higher outlook for McCarthy than Carroll; I’m a fan of McCarthy’s game too (and think he might be underprojected), but Carroll’s worst projection is better than McCarthy’s best in spite of less MiLB seasoning.
It’s almost like teams value things other than batting average.
Who is better?
A cursory check shows Andujar was Fangraphs #14 prospect
=========================
All well and good. But BA had him ranked once, at #59, and BP never had him ranked. I don’t think that compares to the overall #2/#6.
And if you miss on the guy you give the money to then you have an 18 million dollar bench/IL/AAA piece for the next half decade which cripples small market teams. It’s not like Arizona can just eat the money and let him play in AAA a la Boston and Rusney Castillo. If a deal like this goes south Arizona is gonna have to spend prospect capital to get rid of him. That said I’m not opposed to these terms for Corbin specifically as a player but injuries happen. There’s risk on both sides, but Corbin’s risk comes in the form of actually having 100 mil in the bank as opposed to potentially having 300 mil in the bank. I’d take that anyday and start investing in slow but steady streams of passive income. You can make 100 mil turn into 300 mil on your own eventually if you’re focused and smart.
Yeah because top prospects always turn out to be sure things. Hahahaha.
Andujar was ROY runner-up. We’ll see about Carroll.
@traviskelce87
Well let’s see, I just looked at MLB top 100 prospects and he’s rated #2 is it that insane for me to think he should be one spot higher dingus? But I guess you know better than everyone huh?
@RyanD -That’s exactly why Arizona locked him up now and conversely, that is why Carroll signed this deal. Carroll doesn’t appear to lack confidence but he knows young players can get injured and/or struggle to adjust to the MLB game speed and overall talent in their first couple of seasons. Carroll opted for the safe play, while Arizona opted for the risky play with plenty of upside. Had Carroll not signed now and goes onto a ROY season, his cost for this length of deal would nearly double. But if Carroll struggles and gets shuttled between AAA & MLB, he wouldn’t have this option of life changing money for a few more years, if at all. He’d have to grind through another season or two at ‘minimum wage’ to prove his rookie year struggles were a fluke. So Carroll opted for the early 9-figure deal knowing he might be leaving big bucks on the table. He also knows that if he does struggle at the beginning of his deal, he left enough time on the back end of his contract to sign an another 9-figure deal at age 31 if he grows into the type of player he and the team believes he can be. All in all, it’s a fair deal for both sides and both sides know they are taking a sizable risk early in this deal.
@jimmyz – Arizona has been able to eat MadBum’s contract so far and it hasn’t crippled them, even though that was a free agent deal. Those are the type of contracts (free agent deals) that can cripple a small to mid-market team. Failed early extension deals with AAV’s in the $10M – $15M can be swallowed by any team in baseball without crippling the franchise.
I agree in this case, but what concerns me is the precedent it sets. I can see this becoming a thing with MLB teams and can see teams locking up the next Steve Decker for 10 years at over 180 million.
At age 84 i’m regressing back into pooping my pants again and it feels amazing. Smelly AF but truly amazing.
At age 84 i’m regressing back into pooping my pants again and it feels amazing. Smelly AF but truly amazing
At age 84 i’m regressing back into poop’inmy pants again and it feels amazing. Smelly AF but truly amazing
At age 84 i’m regressing back into poop’inmy pants again and it feels amazing. Smelly ĀF but still truly amazing.
At age 84 i’m regressing back into poop’in my pants and it feels amazing. Smelly ĀF but still truly amazing.
Franco hasn’t made any impact yet on the Rays success. He was the first player they ever did that with. Longoria was established before he extended. Franco’s contract isn’t looking that great at the moment.
If big is beautiful you must lurve Jordan Walker at 6’6 and (at least) 250lb.
Good thing that’s not what I was doing as I was merely pointing out a factual error. No one was arguing that Andujar was a better or equal prospect to Carroll.
DBacks know their players better than anyone else. Fastest player in baseball. Elite BTB. Above average power. Plays a premium position. Potentially 9 years of service. Even if it takes him 1-2 years to establish, the team gets 7-8 years of his prime-aged performance years. Tremendous deal for the team.
It Depends on the person.
If not best, per publication, one of a handful. Really between Gunnar Henderson, him and Francisco Alvarez — though Jordan Walker’s stock is through the roof if there’s a re-ranking. He’s certainly looked the part, fwiw, in the cups-of-coffee showings we’ve seen from some of the few (though $111M on about 100 PA is bold). Even Acuña had 400+.
Honestly, who devalues average? Getting more hits is always better than getting less hits.
Hits aren’t the only goal to success in baseball — that’s the point.
When you’re using that as the only stat reference in a case for a bad signing — yeah, AVG doesn’t show a complete picture, especially when it is comprised of only 115 PA. Those same stats indicate he also had a 133 OPS+ in those same PA – meaning he’s 33% better than average, which paints a completely different picture than “only a .260 hitter” getting $111M guaranteed. Lest we forget his other elite skills (running, OBP, defense).
That’s not what you said though. You said who values it? Literally everyone should value it because getting hits is required to score runs. Plus, BABIP wouldn’t even be a thing if average isn’t important. No, it’s no the only important stat or even the most important stat, but to imply there’s no value in it is very wrong.
You’re right, it was meant as hyperbole but may not have read that way. Yes, it should be valued, but like wins for a pitcher, it’s an increasingly irrelevant stat.
Relative to OBP and SLG, as a predictive measure, AVG is indeed entirely useless. Ben Clemens did a couple articles at FanGraphs over the off-season about it.
Average is only useless if you’ve given in to the stat nerds. OBP and SLG are very important and I agree they’re more important. But to say average is useless is absolutely stupid and just flat out wrong.
Well since Ben Clemons said so.
@ DTD/ATL1313 – Stat nerds? LOL. The original statement was about AVG based on 115 PA when in 2022 the league-wide AVG (.243) was at its lowest since 1967 (55 years). So that “only” .260 AVG is actually .017 points better than your AVG ML hitter in 2022. There was a lot of context left out of that statement, I never called it “useless”, but if I could edit that statement, which I’ve said was hyperbole, I’d say it’s overvalued, which it most assuredly is.
None of my recent comments are directed at you so no need to respond.
You kind of make a good point why you’re wrong on average not being important. You said average is at the lowest since 1967. Since baseball has been putting an emphasis on new age stats im the early 2000’s averages have plummeted. Runs scored a game has also plummeted by a run a game. The correlation is undeniable.
I never said AVG is not important, but when the original poster cites one stat (AVG) in 115 PAs during a rookie year as a barometer of success and value for a $111M contract, it’s overvalued. Sure, not one stat that’s going to correctly evaluate him, but AVG ain’t it especially in that small sample size (115 PA). Guy carried a .310/.426/1.014 line over 539 career MiLB ABs. And already during ST 2023 (fwiw), he has twice as many BB as strikeouts, which is forgotten in AVG. If we’re talking about a league-wide contact issue resulting in lower AVG, we’re not talking about Corbin Carroll.
Could be team friendly, could be Scott Kingery/Jon Singleton. I will admit that Carroll has more talent than either Kingery or Singleton, but there’s always risk with extending a rookie.
Singleton/Kingery’s deals are not a comp for Carroll, which is far greater. Singleton’s deal was for 5/$9.5M before options/bonuses (which he got none of) in 2014. That’s nothing, even then. Kingery’s was twice that (6/$24M), but still not that bad if you believe in your development. Carroll’s is for $111M guaranteed.
You stated that Carroll has more talent, but that’s an understatement. Carroll at one point was MLB’s best prospect (like Acuña). He’s a 5-tool talent compared to Singleton – a one-trick pony.
The point wasn’t to directly compare Corbin to either Singleton or Kingery’s deals or as players. Just that teams take a risk on prospects when extending them. Sometimes it works out, sometimes it doesn’t,
Carroll has a lot more talent than Singleton or Kingery. He also was signed for 10X more.
I get it, but not much risk for Singleton in 2014 on a 5/9.5M deal.
That’s about as much risk as getting a Clark bar from a vending machine and not ending up like the 13 deaths per year those machines are responsible for.
RunDMC4 hours ago
Singleton/Kingery’s deals are not a comp for Carroll,
==========================
I’d say the first issue with the comparison is that Singleton was a poor-fielding 1B. In order to be a real player, you HAVE to hit fairly well. Corbin is a good player even if all he does is a 100 OPS+.
The 2nd issue is that Singleton was caught for pot twice. When you sign deals like this, your bet is probably more on the character of the player than his talent.
More like TBD either way.
Seems just right in the middle, fair for both sides.
This guy’s overall skills remind me A LOT of Kenny Lofton. This is a great deal for the Dbacks
He would be free for 3 seasons and then maybe will get 40-50 the 3 after that, so it is quite an overpay. He isn’t a free agent. MLB executives think Yoshida was overpaid. Imagine how they would feel about this. It’s taking 6 very very cheap years and blowing the surplus to get an above market free agent deal. It may still work, but at this point, it’s quite a gamble with high risk and low reward.
He missed all but 7 games last year from injury. He has played 30 games in the majors. This is far from a team friendly deal. One knee injury and his value plummets. Big risk for injury prone player.
Let’s call it optimistic
Can’t blame either party. The DBacks lock up a potential franchise player and Carroll is now very rich. Good for him!
In twelve years I will let you mnow how I feel about this deal….. and I’ll be 100% certain. Right now, meh, I’m 50/50.
it’s a win-win. either side may be a big winner or loser on this.
i applaud risks like these taken by franchises
I agree i would like my jays to do this with Manoah. Its a little different in my case but the only way for prolonged wining is to draft well and locknup your guys while there young
I applaud Yasmany Tomas 2.0.
unfortunately, corbin carroll is not a power-hitting questionable defensive outfielder, but he is actually a strong defensive centerfield-capable outfielder with good contact skills, a rounded approach at the plate and power that projects to mature as he does. not saying that the contract isnt a risk, its just much more calculated than the tomas situation, and neither deal was anywhere near crippling, and it would be a srretch ae considered a big hindrance
unfortunately, corbin carroll is not a power-hitting questionable defensive outfielder, but he is actually a strong defensive centerfield-capable outfielder with good contact skills, a rounded approach at the plate and power that projects to mature as he does. not saying that the contract isnt a risk, its just much more calculated than the tomas situation, and neither deal was anywhere near crippling, and it would be a srretch at best for tomas to be considered a big hindrance
You’re not actually comparing the two right?
Yeah silly of me to compare two baseball players that signed huge contracts with the Arizona Diamondbacks before they proved themselves in the majors.. Just silly of me.
Completely different tool/skill profiles, therefore nowhere remotely comparable beyond the situation you just stated (and Carroll is younger than Tomas was at signing, while also having greater MiLB performance with less professional experience).
Tomas had plus power and a plus arm, and every other tool was below average to atrocious at the bottom of the defensive spectrum.
Carroll has 80 Speed and 70 FV Fielding at a premium defensive position; those are all factors that contribute to a high floor; Tomas had none of those advantages.
And Industry concensus on Carroll’s Hit Tool is that it’s somewhere between 60-70 FV, and his Power is 50-55 FV. Again, that was very different for Tomas.
To compare a player like me to Tomas would be an otherworldly compliment (and entirely undeserved); comparing a player like Carroll to Tomas is borderline insulting lol.
Just silly of me.
=====================
Yup.
One is a poorly-condition player that you probably have very little scouting on.
The other guys is a good-fielding CF. The floor in this case matters. It is unlikely, imo, for Carroll to crap out. In addition, Carroll has a lot of tape to rely on. You know the guy’s habits, when he shows up, any bad habits, any holes in his swing.
It’s laughable to compare Carroll to either Andujar or Tomas. Neither was even close to Carroll in terms of talent and prospect pedigree. This is a great deal for the Diamondbacks and a good deal for Corbin Carroll.
Everything you stated is someone’s opinion. No one KNOWS anyone’s future value. If they did, there would no point in playing the games anymore. It is all just a guessing game. An educated guessing game, but still a guessing game.
This is true of every baseball contract to a certain extent, but at least veteran players have more than just the opinion of some writers at Baseball America and playing against lesser competition as evidence of what they can do. Since they are basically already going to be paying him as if he were an All Star player, this is just a hope contract where the downside far outweighs the upside. It COULD work out well for Arizona, but the odd do not favor it.
OK. So you want a better comparison? How about Desmond Jennings? 2010 overall #6 prospect. Good fielding CF. A handful of average to below average big league years. Out of the league at age 29 with a career hit total of 508.
I am not trying to say that is Carroll’s exact outlook, no one knows that, but it does show what CAN happen to a prospect in his position. All I am saying is that if I am risking over $100 million, I want a little more information than 32 games of decent play.
an entire minor league career, years’ worth of scouting information and personal relationships with the man himself i guess have given the diamondbacks enough information, and theyre the ones doing this for a loving so
Every MLB team in the league was offering Thomas money as this was on the heels of an influx of Cuban players becoming stars.
I would if they got more than 2 free agent years of control against a 111 million guarantee for an unproven player. I’m happy that a young player will probably be paid accordingly to their contributions, but from a GM standpoint it’s a head scratcher.
Why? The risk is the team is hampered long term for a player they control for six years anyway. The upside is not there. He might be great but huge gamble for extra two years of control.
Significant odds that he gets hampered by injuries or doesn’t develop beyond league average. In that scenario they aren’t paying him normal arbitration raises for a quality player, they’re increasingly overpaying a scott kingery type bust for the next 6 years. I’m all for the risk if the reward is more than 2 free agent years of a reasonably paid all star.
The Indians several years ago did well doing it. Locked up young talent for a while. Their scouts and/or baseball people were good at identifying the right ones to sign long term. Braves now seem to be following that example.
Wish my team had that kind of insight with their young talent.
And this is why AA is the best GM in baseball.
He signed Acuna for 10 years for 100 mil
Understand what you are saying, but his deal is also a few years ago. Markets change.
Alex is the first and probably last GM that I’m a fan of like I am of players .
Setting the over/under until Acuña or Albies holds out to renegotiate their contract at 2 years.
I’m setting the over/under at infinity
When is the last MLB Player, on a signed contract, that held out? right, never.
@SCarton12 “Haven’t” doesn’t mean “can’t” or “won’t.”
Players benefit more than anyone from baseball contracts being iron clad. Even the union would turn on a player trying to rock that boat.
At some point their agents aren’t going to just let them play for like no money.
@jimthegoat
Oh so their agent is going to say “no don’t go play for the money that you and I agreed to!! Just sit out the season so none of us get paid!” Please tell me you are a kid because if you are an adult I have given up on society. “Let’s sit out the season and make absolutely nothing GENIUS.”
It’s a chess game not a checkers game friend.
That has nothing to do with this. Lmao
Has everything to do with this. You just don’t get it. It’s ok.
So what do you suggest they do tell me that then huh? Not take the money the fing agreed to ? Tell me what they should do!!!
What I said in my first comment.
No, explain in detail this chess game you seem to know about you didn’t explain a single thing. What will them holding out do except then not getting paid a dime. They signed the deal stupid! They have zero options. They literally can’t go back and go “uhhh I made a mistake when I wanted the guaranteed money.” Explain your chess game punk
Put the pressure on the Braves to renegotiate the contract. This is not a difficult concept.
Have you read the CBA? Or the UPC? Players cannot hold out for a new contract in MLB.
If they do, they are still the property of that team until the contract is fulfilled. They can either play for that team or get paid nothing and sit at home. They can’t play for anyone else, anywhere. Not in independent leagues, NPB, KBL, or MWL.
You might say that a team would trade them, but their trade value at that point would be nil and since they are not paid if they do not play, it costs the team nothing to let them sit at home and stew.
Jimmy, you are playing tiddly winks.
It’s really simple. They can’t. It’s against the CBA. The agreement that the players signed with the owners.
When they signed the UPC for their current deal, they agreed to that amount and terms. BOTH sides can agree to renegotiate that, but both sies are also bound by it.
No one has done it because they would never play again. Apparently, it is too difficult a concept for you Jimmy.
And you are playing checkers.
Jimmy,
In terms of strategy, checkers is a higher level of game than tiddly winks.
In this case, checkers is all you need to know because what you said is not possible. It cannot be done. Both the union and every player that has a signed contract has agreed specifically that they cannot hold out in an attempt to get a new contract. They can ask for a trade, but they cannot hold out.
If some player were to try, it wouldn’t hurt anyone other than the player. Their career as a baseball player would be over. That is why you have not seen it done.
Well, I guess it also hurts the agent in terms of his commission on the earnings of his client which would be ZERO.
No they can’t physically force him to take the field. No one said holding out wasn’t the nuclear option.
And it would hurt the team by not having that player and his production on their roster and having to answer to their fans why they just let him walk. Less than one percent of one percent of one percent of the world’s population has the skill to play the game at this level.
You are correct. They cannot force him to take the field. He can say I am not playing.
They will say “fine, you are suspended without pay until you do play and when you do play it will be under the contract you signed, and you will be playing here. Period. End of discussion”
They wouldn’t have let him walk because he cannot play anywhere else. No where. He is still under contract with that team until he fulfills the contract.
It has not happened, and it won’t happen, because it would be the end of that player’s career.
You keep arguing a point you lost long ago.
He might not be able to play anywhere else but they are letting him sit at home and not play when they have it in their power to convince him to play. The fans would be none too happy about that. Probably more than 99% of fans are casuals and their opinion about player salaries doesn’t deviate much from “I don’t care, it’s not my money.”
Just stop. You were wrong. That is all. Period.
If you say so.
Thank you for agreeing with me. I did say so. You were wrong.
Ok
This isn’t the NBA or NFL, i don’t think we’ve ever seen a player hold out during a contract to renegotiate the deal THEY signed.
We did see a player once threaten to sit out a whole season if he didn’t get a deal he liked but that didn’t really work since he was already a free agent and no one but him would be effected by it
“Haven’t” =/= “can’t” or “won’t”
In this case it does = can’t AND won’t. It’s against the CBA so the union would not support the player and the player agreed not to do it when he signed his contract. They either play for the team they have the contract with or not at all. Unlike you, no MLB player is stupid (or petulant) to do that because they all know it would end their career to hold out.
No one said anything about them playing for someone else. And it wouldn’t end their career. Either the team caves and renegotiates or they call the player’s bluff and he returns in a month or two.
@jimthegoat is the same genius that said because the Rockies didn’t trade some one at trade deadline that they were 100% going to offer him a QO. No matter how many people told him he was wrong he kept on insisting that it was 100% going to happen. Remember that Jimmy? Remember the outcome of that Jimmy? how wrong you were? It was so incredibly stupid that I remembered it after all this time.
@plush
LMAO I do remember that, thanks for reminding us
That was RemoveWins, not me.
I actually disagreed with him. Here is what I said.
“Yes, the Rockies should have traded Cron. Yes, the Rockies front office is a bunch of morons. No, that does not mean they should now compound that mistake by extending Cron a qualifying offer.”
Doesn’t it feel good to have the receipts? LOL you torched this guy.
Receipts would be a link to that thread.
AA is lucky he has players willing to do this. He’s not unique for wanting to get young core guys locked up at low rates
Wrong 8 years 100. Also this dude is like the best prospect in baseball. They can “hold out” all they want but nothing will change, this isn’t basketball.
He signed Acuna for 8/100 with two options for 17 m a year. That makes it 10/134. On par with this contract.
This is a great deal for the D backs
And Kelbert dials his agent in 3… 2… 1…
Why do people think Keibert is some great player? He’s ok
Keiburt got an extension fitting of an average player with upside..
Carroll has a much higher ceiling. Hence more money.
Not every one is as greedy as you.
Yes, that’s what this is about, my greed. You’re really, really smart.
It was a joke, you know? Like the one you made?
What exactly is the joke, though? It’s not sarcasm. It’s not absurdity. It’s not a play on words. It’s just you calling someone else greedy when their supposed greed has nothing to do with this situation. Ha. Ha.
Wow. Great deal for Arizona. Compared to some of the other contracts guys are getting, this is very team friendly.
High risk high reward, it’s that simple. If he pans out it’s a steal. If he doesn’t it’s an albatross
If he never plays another game $13 million AAV won’t be an albatross for even the smallest revenue team.
Arizona has only $32M in payroll commitments for ’25 including Caroll. Even if it’s an albatross, this contract won’t weigh-down the club. I swear it’s the same people complaining about how high free agent salaries are while complaining about deals like this. Talents will and need to get paid and this how to do it to save money for franchises.
Eventually, not necessarily soon, but eventually MLB won’t have this astronomical amount of money flowing INTO the game. The rsn deals going belly-up is probably the start of bursting the bubble.
Meh. I see it more of a speed bump. Money will keep flowing in through other avenues namely streaming. Advertisers aren’t going to stop advertising. It’s cable TV that will eventually go belly-up.
I don’t complain about free agent contracts. Although Xander Boegarts got an awful deal by the Padres, but good on him for getting it
This is the perfect example of a high risk, high reward deal. Carroll is still only 22 years old with a total of 104 major league At Bats. While evaluators are really high on him, there is no such thing as a “can’t miss” prospect. If Carroll turns into an average to below average OF, this deal will hurt the Diamondbacks for years to come; however, if Carroll lives up to the hype, this will be an absolute steal for Arizona. The last 3 years of the deal would have cost Arizona more than the entire value of this contract if Carroll turns into the player Arizona hopes him to become. This deal is a perfect example of the risks MLB teams need to take if they want to build competitive teams. Atlanta has taken this strategy to the extreme as not all of their extensions will work out in their favor. If done correctly, these types of deals are the ones that will allow small to mid-market teams to compete with the juggernauts of baseball, but teams can’t get carried away with this strategy as all teams need to have some productive players who make $750K – $1.5M in order to win it all. Best of luck to Carroll &Arizona here. Carroll will be highly scrutinized over the first 2-3 years of this deal; hopefully he can handle the pressure and turn out to be an all-star caliber player as soon as this season or next.
As Caroll has only had less than 700 ABs in the minors, he deserves more time to settle into his contract.
If you’re going to compare it to Harris, then you should include his option years as well. It’s still a lot more than Harris is getting, but at least be consistent.
Never mind. Just saw the details.
If he’s everything we think he can be, $23MM for what would be his 3rd FA season is certainly a steal.
Definitely not a bad deal on Carroll’s end either, to hedge his bets in case the shoulder injury has lingering issues.
It’s like an early Birthday present lol
The 23 million team option could be a steal. On the other hand, they are assuming tremendous inflation. Say he makes 41 million in his first 5 seasons (this thing called arbitration does exist, remember). That’s just 2 more years for 70 million. If he makes 51, that’s still 60 over 2. I guess the team option allows them to see it as 3 additional years at 93 or 83, depending on arb projections, but this is still what he should get if he does live up to his potential. Overpay, but still better than paying Elvis Andrus 8 years 120 million
Might be the biggest waste of money I’ve ever seen. Jared Kelenic was once a “can’t miss” prospect too. No point in doing this type of extention when you control the player for 6 years
So by that logic, I presume you think the Julio Rodriguez extension was also a bad idea?
@JoeBrady Julio was extended after winning rookie of the year and loses a year of team control since he won ROY. Carroll has played like 30 games. I don’t agree with extending Jrod anyway but it makes a lot more sense than this extention
He didn’t “lose” a year of team control; he just got a full year of service time (in spite of any options used).
Wow, a Mets fan is calling this contract the biggest waste of money ever. The point is to save the team money over those 6 years and beyond, ya know?
Giving anyone 200+ m after a decent rookie year is a horrible idea.
I sense an oblique strain in the offing, baby!!
Small sample size, but if Carroll can hit LHP, then this deal favors the Dbacks.
If Carroll cannot hit LHP, and is a platoon player, then this is not a good deal.
I don’t understand how a guy with a well below-average range and fielding percentage is so far above average at defensive. How are these defensive ratings calculated?
Well below average range? Which numbers are you looking at?
Baseball reference: 1.76 versus 2.12 range factor per game for an outfielder
Defensive stats are cumulative (or are most accurate with larger sample sizes). Any time you’re looking at those numbers, you also want to look at how many innings a player has in the field.
He played 176.1 innings in LF, 31 innings in CF, and 18 innings in RF. He had positive range in all samples, including by FG numbers (which also has Statcast OAA/RAA).
It’s a positive indicator but no one should draw any conclusions from such a small sample.
I’m inclined to agree in most instances, but consider this; in Carroll’s 176.1 innings in LF, he totalled 3.6 RngR (the cumulative range component for UZR). Pretty impressive, how does that compare to Ian Happ, the NL GG for LF?
Happ had 8.7 RngR, so Carroll had a good bit under half of the value, but Happ had 1233.1 innings in LF. Close to 7× the number of innings in the field.
That looks like a little bit more than a positive indicator lol
As a Padres guy, ehhh…the young guy with a lot of potential can be super risky!
Couple of things to watch out for:
1.) Motorcycles! Don’t ever let him ride one, it never ends well.
2.) Ringworm and home or over the counter treatments. Again, this never ends well!
It’s either pay the 110 million now or risk he blows up like a Juan Soto and you get stuck paying 300 million. This is exactly what small market clubs should be doing. Sign your major prospects to long time commitments and hope that more of them than not end up producing. Arizona would much rather make a 100 million dollar mistake than wait let the dude start winning awards like ROY, and get raked in arbitration. This 13.7M AAV could easily be 20 in 3 years if you don’t do this. That is if you have confidence you are right about the kid, seems like Arizona views him as the future.
My comment was meant to be more sarcastic than serious.
Obviously, as a Padres fan I’m into taking risk on guys!
Jonathan Singleton. Scott Kingery. Paul DeJong. Hunter Dozier. That’s off the top of my head. Not without risks, for sure.
You need to back out the MLB minimum and arbitration years before you can figure out what the D’backs are actually paying him. Back of the envelope, and not making any crazy assumptions, two years at the minimum, plus three years of arbitration are worth around $40M. This comes down to the D’backs buying his first three years of free agency for around $24M per.
OR you risk him not adapting to the majors like most prospects and you waste $110 million on a guy you could have paid $1.5 million for three years and then non tendered.
This is a case of paying a guy because you hope he might become an All Star. Whatever happened to proving your worth and THEN getting paid. These extensions are basically saying that scouts are 100% correct and that is far from true.
Most guys who are top-5 prospects just before graduating to the big leagues do adapt to the majors quite well. This isn’t “most prospects.” This is a top-of-the-line prospect. And it isn’t just scouts who think he’ll be great. He has an excellent track record in the minor leagues, and these numbers are a big part of the reason he’s graded so highlly. And there’s almost no chance that he’ll ever be non-tendered.
You are right. And the Diamondbacks have had some time to see this guy up real close, his medicals, his makeup, his work habits. They know this guy and love him, so I am inclined to think that, while there are no guarantees, that Carroll is the real deal here.
I like Corbin — that said I could name several top 5-10 (some of them #1) prospects that would have made this look like a bad signing in recent years
Just off the top of my head:
Torres
Rosario
Benindendi
Robles
Moncada
Crawford
Senzel
Lewis
Whitley
Kiriloff
Rogers
Adell
Lux
Gore
Mize
Pearson
Kelenic
Some of these guys were just as highly touted as carrol and most of the at this point would not be good outcomes for Carroll at this money
Was Bellinger non tendered this year? He won an MVP. There is risk for everyone.
I’d like for the Cardinals to do this with Walker and Nootbar.
Insert comment from Bob Nutting about a “broken system” here…
As a fan of mostly small market teams, I think I’m just going to sit back and hope for a salary cap lol.
The Easter Bunny will be arriving much sooner.
Excellent! Let’s play ball!
Watching this guy on the base paths is worth the price of admission.
The D’backs haven’t developed a star player probably since Justin Upton so it’s nice to see them at least try and keep a potential star for a little longer than the time it takes his arbitration clock to expire
Godly started after JUp.
Goldschmidt?
You know, i completely spaced on Goldschmidt. My mistake.
Snakes are no strangers to risky big money (for the D’Backs) deals. Yasmany Tomas, Greinke, Madbum etc. Maybe it works out, maybe it doesn’t. Either way Ken Kendrick is likely beyond the veil before the deal is up.
Within a year, utility infielders who hit .190 in 29 games will get six-year deals.
He’s going to be a star, not a 190-hitting utility infielder. But some of you just can’t stand to see players getting paid, we know.
Reports says he’s awesome…….but despite this, he might suck. Repost the article 8 years from now when we can look at what he did instead of what he’s projected to do.
I’d like the deal a whole lot more if it was a ten year deal. It’s basically a massive gamble to just get two free agent years. Good for the player though.
Or three, if he doesn’t qualify as a super two.
As an A’s fan, I’m jealous of teams that lock up their young talent instead of trading them after three years
eh I wouldn’t be jealous of this deal…he has about the equivalent of one full minor league season under his belt…
Stupid move. No doubt inspired by Peter Seidler, a man who has battled cancer and is blowing all his money because he can’t take it with him.
Great move
In my best John Madden voice, “You see, what we have here, well that’s just a bad take.”
The Padres CEO, Erik Greupner, said that they didn’t lose money last season and won’t this year either. He did foresee a point where young and cheaper players would have to play in order to maintain profitability, but that point is not this season. They have record revenue coming in and each playoff run increases that revenue.
Seidler holds the largest percentage of the team, but he is not the only member of the ownership group.
Seidler is worth $3.5 billion. It would take a very long time to blow all his money if the team was losing a few dozen million a year.
My man, thank you for your knowledge and letting all of us know just how much Padres culture has changed.
Orioles need to lock up rush and gunnar now
The reason it’s an “overpay” vs a “team friendly deal” is context. He has 6 years of team control. Since he only amassed 30 games he will not be super 2 eligible. Any Roy awards will not benefit him in service time bc he will open the season w the club — it will actually only benefit the dbacks w picks for carrying him on opening day roster.
In his first 3 years he would earn roughly 2 million. If he is really, really good, precedent would indicate he can earn around 7, 14, and 21 mil in his 3 arb years. Could he earn more? Maybe… Much more though? Not likely. That is approximately what the very best players earn as non super 2s.
That takes us to 44 mil total in the lifetime of team control during which the snacks will pay him at a lux tax rate of roughly 83 mil.
This is done for the privilege of buying out 2 fa years w an option for a 3rd. When you break it down and look at he contract i terms of excess on dollars otherwise allocated, they are essentially paying him 67 mil for his 2 fa years, or 33.5 mil per, w an option to buy oth the 3rd year for an extra 23.
Sure it’s great to have him under control for his 20s and not have to worry about his 30s — but he’ll still be 30 max hitting fa so he’s not leaving a ton on the table in terms of earning potential, and dbacks assume all risk.
It also should be clarified that I don’t really have a problem w the deal and understand why it was made — and it’s not UNLIKELY that he posts some level of surplus value or that when you factor in the benefit of controlling the first 3 years of his fa deal without the back 7 (assuming his IS good enough to command a 10 year pack) its not super valuable.
However I don’t think there is any way to call paying him nearly the max he would earn over that length of time a team friendly deal esp when you hold this deal up to the benchmark of the Harris deal which is possibly the closest comp
I personally think Corbin will be notably better than Harris — but Harris tech was slightly better in their limited time, was more or less guaranteed to only have 5 years of control remaining and signed for 40 mil less over the same duration …
I’m all in favour of locking up young players but after 115 plate appearances?? Seems premature to me.
The Collective Bargaining Agreement stipulates that all players must have contract extensions or oblique strains
Amazing a team that wouldn’t spend on Goldschmidt with proven excellence would pay for future. Maybe club thinking has changed. What would have happened it they locked Alex Thomas up or Pavin Smith with their early success?
Not bad for a 22 year old to say they just pocketed over $100M. He can begin making money on those dollars with smart investments and still have another great pay day at 30 if he does everything everyone expects him to do.
Player wins. Easily. It beat the previous record by 40 million. If Keith Law is right and he is a true center fielder and best prospect in baseball this will be a mega bargain for team. I’d rather be the player. If it works out they get him for 3 additional prime years. Easy to see why they did it and not going to hate on it. It is definitely at the very max of my comfort zone. The risk reward scale is pretty balanced. I prefer no brainers like the Harris extension.
Risky move by the D’backs. Not saying bad as his defense gives him a high floor if he stays healthy, but that’s a lot of money to commit to a guy who still hasn’t had his rookie season.
I guess he’s good. Hard to downplay the John Singleton/Even White deals. At least Julio played a season and can sure bake!
This deal puts Carroll in the spotlight for ROY honors. Before this deal was announced most fans, as evidenced by the comments made in this thread, had no idea who Carroll was. A couple months ago, I commented that Carrol was the front runner for ROY and virtually every commenter was shocked I didn’t write Gunnar Henderson. Of course they are in different leagues so could both win, but the point was that the East Coast bias is so pronounced that unless a player plays for an East Coast team, there is virtually no fan knowledge of that player. The East Coast bias that has cropped up now is that Carroll will definitely be a bust or suffer an injury, because he was signed by a team not favored by East Coast bias fans. I submit to you that if Carroll was a Yankee, East Coast bias would already have him in the Hall of Fame.
As far as East Coast bias…ever hear of a player named Ohtani? He won pitted against not 1 but 2 of my Yankee’s team players who played out of their shoes but still lost. How about Correa, or Seattles’ Rodriguez? If you look at the last 10 years of ROY regardless of league, your premise just doesn’t play out.
I’m surprised both sides struck a deal so early on in his career. But he seems like a great investment at this prices in this market.
For long contracts, base running speed throughtout the contract can only be locked up by young controllable players. Its extremely rare you have a 40 year stealing 40 bases.
Patrick
And you’re saying this is a good contract because Carroll will be 31 at contract end.
What an absolutely terrible flipping deal. Those of you calling this a great deal for the team must have been born yesterday. There have been can’t miss prospects MUCH better than him that have flamed out. And some of those guys were significantly better in their first experience at this level as well. He was good in the 100 at-bats last year, but he didn’t do anything that warranted 100 million. The team will be regretting this contract by June.
Name the can’t miss prospects that were better? Generally we back up claims like that with evidence, because it’s been. A while since we’ve seen a player with that level of hit tool while also possessing that level of speed (and the ability to efficiently use his range).
The staff that has actually worked with him put the comp out that “If he was a few inches taller, he’d probably get Grady Sizemore comparisons”. There’s not too many people that were as talented as Sizemore.
Please tell me you’re kidding. What evidence is needed? Are the hundreds or thousands of top ten prospects that have failed not enough for you? Jeremy Hermida, Lastings Millage, Cameron Mabin, and on and on. Grady Sizemore? Cameron Maybin was being compared to Ken Griffey in HIGH SCHOOL. Matt Wieters was suppose to be in the Hall of Fame as one of the greatest hitting catchers of all time. Go look at Matt Wieters numbers in the minors. This kid can’t hold Matt’s jockstrap as an up and coming prospect.
I’m not kidding; all of those players had much longer MiLB track records with causes for concern as the opposition made adjustments.
Carroll doesn’t have the same extended amount of PAs, yet he’s successfully made adjustments in turn (all the way up the ladder to the MLB level) and managed to exceed his projected power every step of the way while being objectively measured as the fastest player in MLB.
And did it all in spite of an abnormal (freak) injury that ended his first full season early; I’m not quite sure that you’re understanding how big of a deal it was that last season was Carroll’s FIRST FULL professional season played (and at the age of a College Junior).
I’m not sure that we have an entirely accurate comparison to Carroll’s career arc, because what he’s managed to accomplish in such a short time is remarkable.
You’re free to think it’s a terrible deal, but it doesn’t look terrible to anyone with an actual understanding of the situation (and it has the potential to be an absolute heist).