Last month, the Phillies and Aaron Nola’s representatives were reportedly exchanging figures about a possible long-term contract extension, creating some feeling that a new deal might be in the works. However, it doesn’t look like the two sides will reach agreement, as Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Alex Coffey (Twitter links) that the two sides have ended talks.
“We think the world of him, quality pitcher, quality human being, but sometimes you get to this point where you’re not able to consummate a deal that both sides feel comfortable,” Dombrowski said. “We’re very open minded to trying to sign him at the end of the season. We’re hopeful he’ll remain a Phillie for a long time.”
Joe Longo, Nola’s agent, also made a statement, telling Coffey that “we had good communication with the Phillies. We just couldn’t agree at this time. We’ll pick up the conversation again at the end of the season.”
Like most players, Nola indicated that he didn’t want negotiations to stretch beyond Opening Day, as he wanted to entirely focus on baseball once the season was underway. With that unofficial deadline still five days away, it’s possible that either Nola’s camp or the Phillies could restart contract talks with one phone call, yet the public declarations by both Dombrowski and Longo would seemingly indicate that the matter has been put on hold.
Nola signed a four-year, $45MM extension with Philadelphia in February 2019, and that deal became a five-year, $56.75MM pact last November when the Phillies exercised their $16MM club option on Nola for the 2023 season. There was no doubt that the option would be picked up, given how well Nola has pitched over his eight seasons for the reigning NL champions. The 2022 campaign saw Nola post a career-best 6.3 fWAR over 205 innings while posting a 3.25 ERA and a range of excellent secondary metrics.
Between Nola’s performance, durability, and age (he doesn’t turn 30 until June), he will be one of the top names in the 2023-24 free agent class, let alone one of the top pitchers. Shohei Ohtani is on his own level given his unique two-way status, but among regular pitchers, only Julio Urias might rival Nola for the top contract given to a hurler next winter.
While the Phillies aren’t shy about giving out big contracts, they would’ve had to pay handsomely in an extension in order to retain Nola so close to his first trip to the open market. The club still retains exclusive negotiating rights with Nola until free agency officially opens (five days after the end of the World Series), yet it isn’t very common to see an extension struck with a top-tier player within that small window between the end of the season and the opening of the free agent window, and the Phillies would likely have to pay even more of a premium to extend Nola at that even later date.
That said, a reunion between the two sides shouldn’t be ruled out, even if the Phillies do end up bidding against other suitors. The Phillies were able to re-sign J.T. Realmuto when the catcher entered the open market during the 2020-21 offseason, and spending in free agency hasn’t been an issue in general given how Philadelphia has landed the likes of Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Zack Wheeler, Kyle Schwarber, Taijuan Walker, and Nick Castellanos to big multi-year deals. The Phillies exceeded the luxury tax in 2022 and are projected to exceed the second tier ($253MM+) of tax penalties in 2023.
With Walker just signed to bolster the rotation this winter, Philadelphia has Nola under control through 2023, Wheeler through 2024, Ranger Suarez through 2025 via arbitration, and Walker through 2026. Between this staggered list, Suarez’s relatively inexpensive price tag as an arb-eligible player, and the team’s hopes that younger arms like Bailey Falter, Andrew Painter, and Mick Abel can provide bargain production in the near future, it stands to reason that the Phillies might pursue re-signing Nola as a hedge against Wheeler’s possible departure following the 2024 campaign. Or, it is possible that by season’s end, the Phillies are confident enough in their young pitching depth to let Nola leave, and recoup a draft pick as compensation (though the placement of that pick will fall due to the Phils’ status as luxury tax payors).
I’m sure no one will overreact in the comments.
@ Von
You mean like how they overreact in Mets threads? I’m sure.
Never implied that.
I didn’t imply you did, was talking about how Mets threads go. Simply replying to someone I think is worthy of conversation, no worries.
Sorry for misreading it. And yes, I agree with you as well.
Probably wants $40M per season lol.
As he should with another healthy season. Definitely no less than Cole’s AAV.
Ehh, personally I don’t know about that, he’s a fantastic pitcher and his underlying metrics are always good but Cole was the second or third best pitcher in baseball when he got FA. A lot of it will be judged by what he does this year. (No s**t right?) Even though his metrics have been good it hasn’t always shown in the results column (2021,2019) and I’m sure it will be used as a bargaining chip by at least one or two franchises. That being said, he chomps down monstrous amounts of innings at a far above average level and that has immense value. I definitely see him getting around coles AAV since pitching prices have gone up throughout the league, but, I don’t see him getting $40 million AAV unless it is a short term deals, which he’s unlikely to sign. My prediction is a $34-36 million AAV over 7 years. I love having these type of baseball conversations, they are fun. As a fan of a rival to Philadelphia I have been Blessed/Cursed to see him pitch the last several years. He’s the type of guy who won’t over power you but he will get you out because he knows how to pitch! We don’t see those guys as much anymore so I have an appreciation of Nolas craft.
I think you are correct in that Nola is one of a rare, dying breed of SPs who doesn’t throw 99 and blow hitters away, but he finds a way to get guys out, every 5th day you can count on him to go + give you a QS, and give your team a chance to win. He puts up 200 IP, annually and was a top 5 SP in several categories such as WHIP, IP, K’s,IP, #1 in Ks/BBs ratio etc..Not many can say that. His stats show hes a top 3-5 SP over the past 5 seasons(Scherzer, Verlander,Kershaw).He pitches relaxed at all times,& probably the best control of any SP in MLB.
I think the biggest mistake Rob Thomson made in the WS last year was pulling his #1 SP far too early (and then his #1A 2 days later) Nola in G4, Phils leading 2 games to 1, scoreless game in the top of the 5th,Houston hits 3 weak singles to load the bases with 0 outs, Nola was at 67 pitches,had allowed 4 hits through 4, struck out 4, walked 0- and had, Alvarez(1-2 single),Bregman(0-2)+ Tucker(1-2) coming uo. Ive seen Nola get out of the inning unscathed/minimal damage-dozens of times over the years, & he at LEAST deserved the opportunity to give up the 1st run of the game on his own. Instead, Alvarado was summoned(a bit cold, far too early+(way too often jb the series)vs. Alvarez, who was HBP, & then Bregman doubles in 3, in what was a 5 run 5th- which was the final score as Javier threw a No hitter. I think if the Phillies get out of that inning even down 1 or 2- the no hitter doesn’t occur, + the team may have been able to take a 3-1 series lead, but we dont live in the land of what ifs.
Whoever Nola pitches for, will have a chance to win every 5th day.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, you are a Phillie.
Welcome to the Red Sox, Mr Nola. You heard it here first.
Is Nola injured enough or old enough for the Sox to have interest in him?
Nola has never been injured, and will be only 30 next year. Do a little research next time.
I never said he was over 30 or injured. Learn to read and comprehend next time.
“Is Nola injured enough or old enough”
I dont know why anyone would think you would want to know how often he’s injured or how old he is.
Dont talk like an Ahole, then set yourself up so easily. Youll learn, from comments up and down this post, you seem like your about what 12?
Try quoting the entire statement, Jimmy.
I dont know why anyone would think I was making a statement that he was old and injured. You aren’t capable of comprehension. Got it. That’s ok. Very brave of you to engage in discussion with such low intelligence. Now that is being a hole. But my first reply I simply said the same thing you said to me. Be right before you correct someone next time.
@jimmy – it’s called sarcasm. Loosen up.
“Sarcasm” So when he uses sarcasm, I need to to lighten up, but when I respond sarcastically with age and health. I need to lighten up?
Wtf that’s idiotic.
“Nola has never been injured, and will be only 30 next year. Do a little research next time.”
I am sorry for thinking you were stupid. I completely missed your sarcasm. I am terrible with sarcasm. My bad.
You did, and I’m glad you can see it now.
Your apology is accepted.
Hr said “is Nola old enough, or injured enough for the Sox to sign him?” was a shot at the Red Sox propensity to signing/trading for older/injury prone SPs to big $ deals. D. Price, C.Sale, etc…
I think the Phillies are tentative to giving Nola a long term, big money deal since they have $20+M spent at C,JT 25M SS Trea 30M, LF Schwarber $20M,Harper RF $30M, DH Castellanos $20M, and 2 SPs Wheeler $25M, Walker $18M. Nola, who has been an absolute Workhorse for the Phillies for the past 8 years, has logged ALOT of innings over those years, and probably dont want to offer him more than 4-5 years, and would like to see if any/all of Painter, Abel, McGarry(Falter) step up,+ also with Wheeler becoming a FA after ’24, they may be able to trade Wheeler for a significant haul,(maybe even deal Castellanos if he hits well/attached to Wheeler for a younger less expensive helpful addition (s), thus freeing up $ to pay Nola. Just a few thoughts on the situation. I think the Phillies would gladly pay him 5/150M, but his agent is probably seeking 7/8 years 200+M. There is probably a meeting point somewhere. For the guy who thinks he’ll be heading to SD, I dont think SD will be signing anyone else in the near future unless they move Tatis or Soto before hand.
Pitching to his brother every 5 (or 6) days in 2024!!
Good-bye Aaron. Time to move on. Phillies better off not tying up so much money in your arm moving forward.
I disagree, but there’s plenty of time.
Has Nola ever been on the DL? Every signing is a risk, but this one is as safe as you can expect.
Let him get disappointed and come crawling back like JTR. I think he will have a strong market but if he is demanding free agent $ you don’t want to be like the Mets and just give it to him. Make him take on the risk and if he comes out alright you pay him then.
I think that only Nola will determine his future. Hes betting on himself, which as Aaron Judge found out, can be very beneficial if you have a career year. If Nola goes out and gives a performance like last years, or 2018 and everything in between, he’ll get about 5/6 years at about 30M/year, maybe even more, being that he’s only going to be 30 in June. He has been the most durable pitcher in MLB over the past 5/6 years, while also putting up Top 10 stats in categories like IP, Ks, WHIP, K/BB ratio, etc. He’s been struck with some bad luck as far as run support. He lost 5 games where the team was shutout last year- 3 of them 1-0 losses.If he’s on this pace at the All Star Break, I’d expect DD to reach out to his agent with an offer that would “open up lines of communication” and be wrapped up over All-Star Weekend.
If things go poorly for Aaron during the season, I’m sure he will still get a nice payday. For every Aaron Judge like story, there are many cautionary tales of players turning down long term big $ deals, (Rhys Hoskins comes to mind very quickly), and Ryan Madson, whpse agent screwed him over by trying to get additional money after a prior verbal agreement.
Hopefully everything works out well for Aaron + the Phillies.
Enough with the fake deadline because of distraction bs. Do people fall for this? Maybe they do and cave to your demands. Doesn’t sound Dave is. You tell your agent what you want and not to call you unless a deal is reached. Zero distraction.
It is said bc Nola, his teammates, Thomson, and DD don’t have to answer the same media questions all season long. “We’ll/they’ll sit down again at the end of the season and talk again. Next question.”
Definitely believe the media falls for it and will again and again.
They don’t fall for it, they fall in line.
I can see that.
LOLphillies
This man is going to be paid very very handsomely, especially if he puts up another all star campaign
@ YourDream
“You don’t want to be like the Mets”
I would love to be like the Mets, afford whatever you want and if it doesn’t work throw it out and just buy something else. Imagine not liking to be rich. That is the bottom line no matter how hard anyone tries to spin it.
Let’s see the Mets win something first. I agree the Mets are seemingly in a good place, but we keep hearing about the great Cohen, the best owner in baseball, who has 0 playoff series wins and 0 division crowns so far. They look great on paper though.
Not everyone who hates the Mets does so because hey have a mega-rich owner who will spend anything to try to win. As a Phillies fan, I hated the Mets when the Wilpons were so “broke” they were borrowing money from MLB to meet payroll, and before and after too. They’re a division rival and I want them to go .500 against the Marlins, Braves, and Nationals, and then lose the remainder of their schedule.
It’s actually fun to see an owner like Cohen do whatever he wants and basically laugh when the league or other owners get upset. You don’t need to, or shouldn’t have to, spend $500mm to win a World Series, but sometimes you do what you’ve got to do.
When Rizzo signs Nola, drafts Skenes, and Cavalli gets healthy
One could dream!
The point is being missed, seems like there is a hatred for people with money that can afford whatever they want. Hate on the guy that has a Lamborghini, hate on the guy that can afford the mansion or in this case hate on the guy or the organization that can afford whatever it wants. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion but let’s not act as if there’s a right way or a wrong way. Rules are there to be obeyed, when Cohen is breaking the rules then there will be something to talk about. Till then it all sounds like hatred, I don’t believe saying that is out of line at all, but I can be wrong.
You’re right here, and I think it’s something the Mets fans aren’t used to. For years the Mets hated the Yankees and their fans for the exact reasons you talk about. Now, the Mets have the wealthiest owner in sports, and the Mets fans have to adjust to that hatred being directed at them. For what it’s worth, I think the Mets had two fantastic offseasons in a row. I think the spending is good for sports. I think Correa would have been going a bit overboard, but as of now, I think the Mets have a pretty smart 2-3 year plan that allows them to spend without losing prospects. They’re mirroring the Dodgers formula, which has a proven track record of success. If Nola hits free agency, it wouldn’t shock me if he’s the Mets #2 target behind Ohtani. So while I’m sick of hearing about how great Cohen is when he’s accomplished nothing so far, I do think he’s put together a great squad. I respect it.
I am very disappointed that they did not get a deal done, as I love having Nola on the team. However, if both Middleton and DD are not willing to pay the freight, that would indicate to me that the ask is way over their comfort level and trending towards record-setting. And as much as Nola should be a career Phillie, anything over 4-5 years for a pitcher is fraught with risk..
By the end of the season, they probably have a better handle on the young arms and their development curve. At that point, either they overpay to retain Nola or they are comfortable enough to stay the course and reallocate the funds elsewhere.
I have faith in Middleton, and would be surprised if Nola moves. But he’ll be highly coveted.
The only way Nola isn’t a Phillie next year is if:
A. Nola regresses significantly or is injured,
B. the prospects turn out even better than expected and the Phillies have an embarrasment of SP riches next year, or
C. they find someone better to replace him (Ohtani, Urias, etc).
Point being, there is no reality where they have one less ace in 2025 unless something happens to Wheeler.
I agree, with the caveat being, I don’t think the Phils have any shot at Ohtani.
I wouldn’t expect it to be Ohtani, but then again I also expect Nola back. They will certainly take a look though.
People please, phillies fans please.
Contract negotiations will indeed continue. The player has to say that to avoid all the constant inane q’s Nola will get.
Dombrowski and Nola’s agent will have exchanges and meetings behind “closed” doors. Whether and how much they amount to anything we’ll never know….until we are told.
At some point the 2 sides will come to a conclusion -sign or no sign- and we’ll never know either….
Nola is not some 4 or 5 slot pitcher, haters aside, he’s a top 15 arm in the league.
My hope is they are 50% done….What was the Norton/Damon movie….?
“PAY THE MAN”
The media will post what they have to….
I have faith that Middleton and DD are willing to pay up, verging on “stupid money”. I have faith that Nola is pretty laid back and would have accepted “verging on stupid”, without outside pressures.
I don’t have faith that the agent will not try to stubbornly reach for Stupid Plus, in cahoots with the MLBPA, for their own purposes. I hope that this gets remedied by the end of the year.
That we can certainly agree on. Almost all agents, including some who represent their selves(although Baltimore foolishly ponied up for Lamar Jackson & his 1-3 playoff record, almost always screw things up to get every last penny in their own pocket. Hopefully they can come to an agreement, I think 5/150, w/ options for 2 more seasons would work as a guideline here. But WTF do I knowN lol.
IF the Phillies fail to sign him…welcome to the 2024 New York Mets!
Better get your wallet out Mr. Middleton.
I agree. Mets will be signing 2-3 starters. But I do think the Phils get this done before the offseason.