Despite a series of injuries to Garrett Whitlock and a history of success in the bullpen, the Red Sox are planning to keep the 26-year-old righty in the rotation once he returns from the injured list, writes Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. Manager Alex Cora plainly stated multiple times this weekend that the organization views Whitlock as a starter, and he pushed back on the notion that pitching on consecutive days, being ready to throw nearly everyday, warming up and sitting down without getting into a game (i.e. all the rigors that come with being a relief pitcher) would help Whitlock remain healthier.
Whitlock has a career 4.75 ERA in 55 innings as a starter compared to a 2.24 mark in 112 2/3 frames as a reliever, but he’s not yet had a lengthy audition in the rotation. Part of that is due to health issues — he had Tommy John surgery in 2020, missed time this year recovering from hip surgery, and is now with ulnar neuritis in his right arm — but the Sox remain committed to giving him an opportunity to work as a member of the starting staff.
Turning a lineup over has proven difficult for Whitlock to this point in his young career. Opponents have batted .275/.313/.363 against him the first time around as a starter, but that jumps to .272/.313/.533 on the second trip and .300/.364/.700 on the third time through (albeit, in a sample of just 22 plate appearances).
The Boston rotation currently consists of Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck and Brayan Bello. Houck, who’s also hoping to establish himself as a viable long-term rotation piece for the Sox, is the only member of that group with an ERA south of 5.00. Sale, Kluber and Bello are all north of six earned runs per nine frames in their limited 2023 work thus far. Given those struggles and the fact that Kluber (signed through ’23) and Sale (signed through ’24) are relatively short-term pieces, it makes sense to see whether Whitlock, who is signed through 2026 with a pair of club options thereafter, can eventually find his footing in a rotation setting.
One potential arm on the mend is lefty James Paxton, who could impact the starting staff sooner than later. The veteran southpaw hasn’t appeared in a Major League game since April 2021 thanks to Tommy John surgery, a significant lat strain and a more minor hamstring strain, but he’s made five rehab appearances and was particularly sharp his last time out, with 5 1/3 shutout frames and an 8-to-1 K/BB ratio. It’s a stark contrast from an April 19 rehab appearance against the Phillies’ Triple-A affiliate, where Paxton was tattooed for seven runs while only recording two outs.
MLB.com notes that Paxton will be reevaluated today to determine whether another rehab start is necessary. He’s coming up on the end of his 30-day minor league rehab window next week but would have time to make one more Triple-A outing if the organization deems it best for him.
In the lineup, the Sox have seen struggles from another hopeful long-term piece: first baseman Triston Casas, who’s hitting just .133/.283/.293 through his first 92 trips to the plate. The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey writes that the team expects to stick with Casas at the MLB level for now, rather than sending him to Triple-A Worcester for any kind of reset. McCaffrey notes that manager Alex Cora cited Casas’ pitch recognition as a plus, despite the rocky average. Casas’ issues haven’t been chasing pitches off the plate so much as fouling off the in-zone pitches he needs to be punishing, Cora observed.
Casas currently has a 30.5% chase rate on pitches off the plate, which clocks in just shy of the 31.5% MLB average. He’s been more passive in the zone, however, with his 62.8% swing rate on pitches over the plate checking in five percentage points south of average. He’s averaging a hearty 90.7 mph off the bat when does put the ball in play and has three homers on the year, but Casas has also fanned in more than 29% of his plate appearances.
The Sox aren’t teeming with alternatives, however, particularly with Bobby Dalbec sporting a near-40% strikeout rate in Triple-A since his demotion. Veteran Justin Turner has started six games at first base for the Sox this season, so he’d presumably be in line for more work there if the team eventually decides that a minor league breather would be best for Casas.
Alex Cora has around 4 billion reasons to relocate the Red Sox if the city/state of Boston doesn’t pay for and build a new stadium for him by 2030.
he doesn’t own the team so it’s really not his choice. this bot/troll is just going to respond to every post with this nonsense?
Nice! you combined all your annoying troll phrases into 1 post…credit where credit is due, well played ( although you need to throw in something about Votto next time as well)
If Alex Cora had 4 billion dollars i doubt he would care what the city does…
As of today Casas is the 2nd worst hitting 1B in MLB and he is playing poor defensively. The only reason Bloom is sticking with him is he has no other options.
Whitlock is a reliever. He can’t cut it as a starter. After just a few starts between the minors and Boston this season he already was getting lit up the 2nd and 3rd time through the lineup. Then he got injured. Cora can try to lie to himself, but it’s painfully obvious to everyone that watched Whitlock pitch.
Fever Pitch Guy
Life – Cora lie? But he’s such an honest person with an impeccable reputation!
Life..i like whitlock as a reliver too but how does only 12 total starts in mlb allow anyone to know its “painfully obvious” he cant be a starter? Fwiw jon lester had a 4.75 era in his first 15 gs .and i bet would have been lights out coming out of the pen.
Spot on correct. I prefer Whitlock as an RP, and the numbers so far him to be better as an RP. But that said, the criticism of Whitlock as an RP is incredibly short-sighted.
In 2022, he was a better RP than an SP. But his numbers as an SP were well above average compared to the AL has a whole. He had a better ERA, better Whip, and better OPSa.
So the criticism of Whitlock as an SP is based solely on 3 starts from a guy coming off the IL. There is a -0- chance I disqualify a guy based on that.
Look at Lester’s 2006 stats the 2nd and 3rd time through the lineup. He got better the deeper he went. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=lestejo01&t=p&year=2006
Now look at the same thing for Whitlock in both the upper minors and MLB. He gets worse the deeper he goes.
Whitlock is a reliever.
Fever Pitch Guy
Life – Back in Lester’s day a lot of pitchers got better the deeper they went.
You know why? Because their managers left them in longer and the pitchers learned how to pitch 3rd time through the lineup. They pushed themselves, made themselves stronger, made themselves pitch smarter.
If Whitlock was given the same opportunity, he’d be more successful at it too.
Lmao. No. He won’t.
Bro, why just post once with two paragraphs, when you can post 23 times one sentence each?
Why do you claim something and then not back it up with links to articles you say are so easy to find?
I already explained why Whitlock will not be a good starter. Pay attention.
Hasn’t Whitlock has been given that opportunity in the minors? I looked at his game logs and they gave him the opportunity to pitch to tams a third time through the lineup many times. That was pretty consistently when he got in trouble. Once he got to the Red Sox that has been his problem when starting as well.
I think the problem is that he doesn’t hide the ball very well prior to releasing it. There is not much deception in his delivery. Then take a look at overlays of his different pitches. He doesn’t tunnel his pitches well either so hitters can distinguish them quickly after he releases them. So the more often batters see him, the quicker they pick up his pitches.
Those are both issues that can be fixed, but the majors is not the place to do that. If he is going to stick in the majors, he needs to be used as a reliever to be effective.
The question for me is do the Red Sox want an effective reliever that can go multiple innings on occasion or an ineffective starter that has to be pulled in the 4th or 5th inning most starts?
It’s interesting that you’re able to communicate normally on occasion.
It’s interesting that you thought that my communication was unusual. You still have not said one thing that proved your claim. No links when you said it was so easy to find them while all the major sites say that your claim is wrong. That says all I need to know about that claim.
The Sox have Bobby Dalbec and Daniel Palka at AAA, but neither are exactly lighting the world on fire (though Dalbec has driven in 14 runs so far this season).
Casas’ 16 walks does tie him for 5th in the AL, unfortunately taking walks is resulting in high strikeouts. Might as well stick with him and see if he improves
I think we all agree that Dalbec is not the answer to this or any other roster dilemma the Red Sox may face. The waiver wire would bear more fruit than Dalbec ever could.
Fever Pitch Guy
solaris – Yeah, I’d say a 40% strikeout rate in AAA would be a disqualifier.
solaris6oz – Dalbec is the answer. Casas training in AAA where he should have been based on performance is the right approach. If using Dalbec as a stand-in doesn’t cut it because you think the one game over .500 Red Sox are post season contenders then you are delusional. Dalbec deserves one last shot and Casas needs time in the minors. This should be a no brainer because if Dalbec doesn’t cut it you can DFA him but you’ve wasted no more money that could impact the future. This team is on a 75 win pace.
GIVE DALBEC A CHANCE AND SEND CASAS TO AAA.
84 W pace. But what does math matter when your every post is negative.
Remember Pedie at this time his rookie season was nearly run out of town. Given this is not a playoff run team, stick with Casas and assess at the end of the year. I don’t want JT overextended at first as the team needs his bat in the lineup and I wouldn’t chance an injury by having him learn on the job.
I with you will agree regarding Dalbec, it is needed to give the last chance, to play against lefties and weak righties to him.
Casas can’t get on a ball stably, he needs to feel a confidence in Triple ААА, in Major on him too large pressure, I had the impression, that Triston is afraid to hit the ball.
Fever Pitch Guy
bogie – Excellent point! That’s exactly what I have been saying, he has a look of fear on his face when he’s at the plate. He needs to rebuild his confidence in the minors, just like Duran did.
Fever Pitch Guy
If he will begin to rake up in Triple ААА, that to feel confidence and his return won’t be long, for a fellow certain is talent, knowledge of zone of blow and discipline.
To him 23 and he younger of Dalbes on 5 y’s.
When they are compared, it is funny to me, they aren’t alike.
I like the bat of Bobby, but for him obvious problems with beat, that he didn’t correct for 2 y’s and even in this situation,
I constantly watch after Bobby in triple ААА and very want that he scored a success, but he much SO and it is a problem.
I ‘m ready to give Dalbec another chance, other alternatives aren’t present is Palka ( Lol!), Goodrum ( Lol! ), Turner can’t survive in 38 , such variant is acceptable therefore.
Look at Duran is a completely another player, I disbelieve until now that this Jarren.
Dalbec and Palka?
Where’s their AAA farm club, Warsaw?
Dalbec is whiffing 40% of the time in the minors after struggling in the bigs. Let’s just call him what he is, a bust.
Casas is so bad that he can’t get much worse. Improving 50% at the plate would only bring him to league average and it would take an .834 OPS the rest of the season to get there.
all in the suit that you wear
Hard to know if Whitlock is injury prone in general or if him being a starter is the problem. He was a starter until he got TJ surgery in 2019.
Fever Pitch Guy
First real comment: I’m glad it’s pointed out in this article how much energy is wasted with today’s style of bullpen management where relievers usually don’t go more than an inning. Every time a reliever warms up, it’s reducing his availability in games. I hope Whitlock can become an effective longterm starting pitcher, but the injury concerns are not going away any time soon.
As for Paxton, yesterday’s performance was indeed encouraging. It would be amazing to actually see him pitching for the Red Sox this week or next.
And YES Casas needs to be sent down, Turner can handle 1B just fine.
40% K rate for Dalbec in Worcester? Very sad, but not surprising. He looked totally lost at the plate in the majors, and his facial expressions and body language made him look like a completely defeated man.
FPG – His facial expressions? What would yours be if you played for the fool known as CORA? Nobody raises their batting average by making less faces. The guy needs at bats and a chance to get hot because he can help the team if he gets hot. He’s Duvall but hasn’t got hot. You’ve seen Duvall’s hot streak but not his cold streak which can match Dalbec’s pitch by pitch.
Fickle fans over react to everything. Dalbec needs one last chance and then if nothing comes of it he can move on knowing he got a fair shake unlike Chavis and others under Bloom and Cora. Somebody needs to tell Cora Dalbec is from the DR. He’ll be batting 4th tomorrow. I’ll take Dalbec over Kiki any day of the week.
Dalbec is 28. He has struck out 33% of the time in parts of 3 seasons in AAA and he has gotten worse, not better. He doesn’t deserve a prolonged stretch in the majors. He deserves a DFA to make room on the 40 man fur someone with a shot at sticking.
Fever Pitch Guy
KD – Facial expressions and body language are forms of communication! Did you ever get a chance to watch Pedroia play? Now THAT is what Casas should be like, fiery and confident!! The eye of the tiger!!!
Duran had the same problem last year with the Red Sox, he never would have evolved into the fierce confident competitor he is today if he hadn’t been sent down to work on his game and rebuild his confidence.
FPG – Agreed on Duran and Peddy was too far away to see the expressions. I just loved when he chewed out Bogey for being lazy when he first took over SS and after that Bogey seemed to have a bit more respect for his position. I think the negative impact of Cano on younger players needed to be erased and Peddy let them know when they weren’t showing enough energy playing their position. That’s what I remember most about Peddy. Oh yeah and seeing a 4 foot 10 guy batting clean up in the Red Sox order when there were injuries to key players. It was like watching Rudy, I couldn’t help but say “He’s so small!!!” but man could he hit.
60-80% of communication is non-verbal. Lots of sources for this, but here is one. https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20210617-the-digital-body-language-cues-you-send-or-dont-send
websoulsurfer – Interesting article. I like the way it explains what a toxic work environment can do to an employee. I believe playing for Cora creates that toxic work environment if you aren’t from the right country or speak the right language.
Casas, the lean and hungry one. He loves you not.
Fever Pitch Guy
Cartrow – If I had to guess the favorite animal of Casas, I’d guess giraffe.
Fever, I think you are right.
That’s why you never see him swinging at high balls.
Casas’ command of the strike zone is there but his pitch recognition has been bad. He’s not tagging breaking balls because he’s picking them up too late. He needs some time in the minors.
I have little worry that Casas will be fine in time. Whether he gets it together in MLB or at Worcester is really just a matter of where his head is at. If he is still doing well mentally, let him play through it. He has the tools.
He really doesn’t have anything to prove in the minors at this point. As you said if he’s fine mentally let him continue to work at the big league level.
Fever Pitch Guy
syco – Obviously you are 100% correct, Casas needs to get demoted.
Anybody who watched the games last year saw Duran in the same funk that Casas is in now, and look how much better Duran is this year after spending time in AAA – it’s really like night and day, Duran has been amazing!!
It’s been one month and less then 100 plate appearances for Casas if he still really struggling after 350 or so plate appearances then you think of sending him down but he will probably be fine by then. It’s just to early at this point let the kid have ample time to figure it out no need to panic now.
I dont see what 250 more PAs is going to show you thats different from the 180 PAs he’s already gotten. He’s terrible.
Spoken by someone who is completely clueless.
Yes, all high level 23 year old major league prospects have to rake in their first MILB 180 PA’s or its all over for them forever.
I don’t see any negatives except for BABIP. It’s a small sample, but unless someone sees something in his swig that would lead to an aberration in BABIP, then if his BABIP reverts back to .291, then his OPS reverts back to .854.
Bruin1012 – Why? Why will he be fine? Casas has not shown star power in the minors. He’s hyped beyond belief but doesn’t he need to show something for a person to say he’s got a future and Dalbec doesn’t?
We have watched Devers butcher 3B for over 6 seasons but people are still making up ways to rationalize his miserable fielding. Can we pull the plug on Casas as fast as we did on Dalbec? I mean that would only be fair wouldn’t it?
Some guys get devotion from fans without justification and others get abuse after having done great things. Casas has never had half seasons like Dalbec.
I’m not any more pro Dalbec than Casas, I just hate the unfair judgements being made by people like you who have a built in bias.
Dalbec came up in 2020 and had 92 plate appearances hit .263 OBP of .359 SLG of .600 OPS of .959 and OPS+ of 149 yet people were saying Casas was the long term solution.
Casas came up in 2022 and had 95 plate appearances hit .197 OBP of .358 SLG of .408 OPS of .766 and OPS+ of 113. Clearly, if a blind taste test was performed EVERYONE would prefer DALBEC based on the numbers but that didn’t happen.
NOW in 2023 Casas has had another 92 plate appearances hit .133 OBP of .283 SLG of .293 OPS of .576 and OPS+ of 58 (that’s kiki territory!!)
Read the comments on this posting, Dalbec is the bad player and Casas is the good player. WHY? Because fans want that to be the case? There is no actual evidence that Casas will even match Dalbec’s numbers given the same number of at bats. Remember, Dalbec had TWO excellent second halves and Casas has had two tries and failed miserably twice.
Casas needs to stay in AAA until he can hit a HR every 4 games, bat consistently near .300 and catch the darn baseball at 1B. We don’t need a Devers equivalent at 1B. We already have Kiki and Yoshida competing with Devers for worst fielders in baseball.
“Read the comments on this posting, Dalbec is the bad player and Casas is the good player. WHY? ”
No offense man, but the WHY is because of scouting reports and what people who get paid to evaluate players think.
Major league talent evaluators consider Casas a potential all star. They obviously could be wrong, but when you ask WHY it’s almost like you haven’t been paying attention.
I could cut and paste the scouting reports of both players, but you;’re more than capable of doing your own research.
No they don’t. Casas grades out a 55. 50 is an average MLB player.
If you spend about three seconds googling you can find numerous scouting reports that say he has all star potential.
And yet you can’t post a single link.
Try this one
Or this one.
Or this one
Or this one
Not a single one says All Star.
So post links.
Here is a cut and paste.
“Casas is a boring prospect, but not in a bad way; he projects as an above-average regular at first base.”
Dumpster Divin Theo
Or this one. My imaginary friends.
sycophant – So lets review the process and maybe you can understand why we are not connecting.
The Boston Front OFFICE provided data to prospect rating systems giving them the team’s perspective of their future stars. Also, prospect ranking systems start with the players draft position. So the scouting reports you are referencing are biased to begin with. If Bloom wants Downs to be a showcase player because he got him in a trade, he sends that info to the rating systems and has Freidman corroborate the evaluation. This is one source of your scouting reports. They are media documents not real scouting reports.
Next, scouting reports can come from managers and coaches in the minors. When Devers was at AA ball his Dominican Manager knew he was the chosen one from the DR Academy and put in a published scouting report that Devers was improving on his defense. The odd part about that report is that no data supported it. In fact, Devers fielding percentage fell drastically while playing for him but who needs facts when you can have biased opinions by people in the organization providing insights into the future skill of a player.
So, if you believe the scouting reports when they directly conflict with the actual performances by the player then you are simply gullible. Casas has put up league average type numbers in the minors not super star numbers. He’s done nothing in the majors.
How about letting him prove he’s good before you actually declare he is based on fictional scouting reports produced by the Red Sox organization. When the organization chooses players to publicize to those scouting report companies they are simply creating fiction for them to publish so their agenda of who will be a future star is fulfilled..
Please provide the major league evaluators that consider Casas a potential all-star. Was that an opinion by a numb skull from the MLB channel? Or are they basing it on his looks? Because his stats don’t support it. Are they basing it on his work ethic? Rumors have it that his work ethic isn’t so hot either according to his team mates. Can you give me ONE name so I can write them and ask why they think what you are suggesting when there are no facts to support the assertion.
So if your answer to WHY is because I read it on the internet, I fully appreciate how much you know about the game.
Okay, That was kind of creepy.
As I said, If you wish to google scouting reports you can find numerous ones that project Casas as a potential all star.
If you don’t, that’s cool.
You keep thinking you’re arguing with me about something for some odd reason.
The Red Sox highly value Casas as a prospect. That’s why they’re playing him. That’s my entire point. I am not arguing they play Casas, I was trying to explain to you why they play Casas. Because you’re pretending not to get it.
I found three that said he was a potential all-star immediately.
Dude is super wound up.
This is why it isn’t worth talking baseball on this board,
Sycophant basically is like ” Well, if it’s a losing seasons like you say it is, why not play Casas, as the Red Sox value him as. a prospect”
Then he gets subjected to 1000-word diatribes that have nothing whatsoever to do with his point and some other dude freaking out and posting numerous links that say Casas isn’t a potential all star when there are plenty out there that say he IS a potential all star.
Not a whole lot of big picture thinkers around these parts.
Sycophant – I fully understand you aren’t arguing for Casas you are simply suggesting the organization values Casas as a prospect. What I’m arguing as you phrased it is that you ASSUME valuing a player as a prospect means putting them in the majors because they are valued. That’s not how it works.
The organization should be using a merit system to promote players and I am pointing out that they are using a political system to promote players. If Casas is highly valued by the organization then they should be doing what’s best for him to succeed but instead they are doing what’s best to promote attendance by playing him at a level he hasn’t qualified himself for. It’s a publicity stunt not an earned promotion. Just like Downs being promoted to the majors. It’s a way to push the narrative of Bloom developing players when he’s not. He’s throwing them in the deep end and hoping they will swim. I’m arguing that you are wrong. It’s NOT because the organization thinks so highly of Casas that he is in the majors, it’s because it’s what’s best for Bloom to hold on to his job a bit longer. I’m pointing out that the scouting reports you are referencing are internal and at the direction of Bloom and his 2023 marketing plan for Casas. That’s why I asked you why?
I wanted you to think about the real WHY behind Casas being in the majors and come to your own conclusion that it’s a publicity stunt since his minor league numbers don’t justify his promotion. The scouting reports say what Bloom demands they say. Reading Casas’ performance numbers shows he is not ready. So for me arguing is the wrong word. I am trying to explain to you how the organization works internally so next time you see a promotion that doesn’t match the minor league performance numbers you won’t think they are high on the player you’ll ask yourself why are they promoting him before he is ready? At that point, you will understand the internal workings of a baseball organization.
How much you been drinking Dumpster?
Still no response? No links? Didn’t think so.
Those ARE the scouting reports. What part of that do you not understand?
But no links. If you found even one there would be a link.
There are no scouting reports that say he is a potential all star. If there were it would be easy enough for you to post one that does considering the first 4 I found and linked to don’t say that. I linked to the experts.
Come on son. You can at least try to back up your bs.
I am not going to let a creepy lunatic tell me what to do.
Dude, do you know you can just post once instead of 7 straight times?
Hey., for the third time. .Google” Casas…scouting report…potential all star”
I know you can do it all by yourself. I really believe in you.
@baseballisforlife You don’t have to post 9 straight times with one sentence in each post.
You’re really odd.
Guy has posted like 18 times saying the exact same thing.
I think he is having some sort of mental breakdown.
he’s like the reverse KD 17.
Not a whole lot of big picture thinkers around these parts.
You just came to this conclusion? The issue is that too many people have no middle-ground.
There are no scouting reports that say he is a potential all star.
I’m not as big a fan of Casas as some, mostly because of his minor league L/R splits. But BA ranked him as high as #19 and BP ranked him as high as #35. Whether I agree with those rankings is not relevant. Those rankings make him a potential AS.
Still no links. Do you know why? Because no one ever said that. You were caught in a lie sycophant.
I posted links as I found them and after I read the article. You are really stupid apparently.
if this will finally get you to shut up read the summary section
What matters is not his ranking compared to other prospects.
What matters is how he grades out on the 20 to 80 scouting scale. 50 is a prospect with the ceiling of being a major league average player. On all the major sites, MLB, BA, BP, Fangraphs, and The Athletic, Casas grades out as a 55. Slightly above average but not plus. Plus starts at 60. They are all in agreement about Casas.
Prospects that scouts consider to have the potential to be All Star players in the majors all are 60++ and have a couple tools that grade out higher than a 60.
This is really not that hard but definitely going over way too many Sox fan’s heads.
Its really simple. The scouting organizations don’t consider Casas a potential all star player. They consider him to have the potential to be a solid, boring, and slightly above average major league player.
Hopefully he can turn things around and be that average player the experts think he can be. Right now it’s not looking so good.
BA’s final grade in 2022 on Casas was a 60 in 2022 his last year of eligibility.. BA is pretty much the gold standard when it comes to prospect rankings and evaluations so I’ll take their word for it. I gave you a scouting report that said he the ceiling of an all star and BA’s grade. Take the L and move on.
Quoting Keith Law. Nice. He goes on to say that he is boring because he has no outstanding tools, but no bad ones either. They are all just average or above. Unfortunately, his highest graded tool is his arm, and he does not get to use that at 1B.
KD, that is not how it works. The scouting services talk to scouts in the field from many organizations about the prospect in question, not just the ones from the organization the prospect belongs to. They watch film of the prospect. Then for top prospects, top 200 or so, they send people to games.
They are not relying on what the Red Sox had to say about Casas or Dalbec, The scouting services probably never talked to the Red sox front office at all before giving the grade you see on MLB.com or The Athletic or Baseball America.
syc, I Googled it and all I found were MLB.com. Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs, and Keith Law at the Athletic all saying that Casas is projected to be a solid everyday 1B. None of them said anything about him being an All Star. What are you reading if it’s not those guys?
again that’s not true. In BA’s last prospect handbook where he appeared (2022) they said Casas had the ceiling of being a multi time all star so I’m not sure where you’re getting that info on BA but it wasn’t the most recent one.
Sin, typically if there really are articles, someone would post a link to it. I only looked at the top 5, the scouting guys that are considered to be the experts outside of the ones working for the teams. Not one of them said that.
No reason to bother looking anywhere else when MLB, Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Fangraphs and Keith Law all agree on a prospect scouting grade. Wouldn’t you agree?
that description of Casas is actually a better description of Keith Law as a writer and prospect evaluator except for the above average part. That doesn’t apply to Law
Acell, you are posting a blog. You realize that, right? Those guys are not the MLB.com staff or Baseball America or Keith Law or any other recognized expert on prospects.
Even those Red Sox fanboys said exactly what all the experts said.
“Summation: Potential everyday regular.”
Then they went off on a fan tangent. What they said first is what the experts all said.
They said Casas’ ceiling in the summary of an all star. If you bothered to read their site they actually do a lot more research than “just a blog”.
Regardless BA gave him a 60 grade with a potential to be a multi time all star. They aren’t “fanboys running a blog” like you said. You conveniently ignored that part.
It’s behind a pay wall so I’ll have to take your word for the grade but like I said in the handbook he had a 6o grade and gave him all star potential. I’m not really sure why that last part is so hard for you or anyone else to accept.
Baseball America graded Casas a 55 in their 2023 pre-season rankings and had him at #29 overall
A 50 on a 20-80 scale is a player they think has the potential to be MLB average. A 55 is a guy with a tool that is above average, but most are average. A 60 is plus or above average. Not usually a guy they think will be an All Star player.
Guys they think will be All Star players have one or more tool graded a 70+ and at least a couple others that are graded a 60+. That is not Casas.
If Casas can figure things out at the plate, he could be a solid regular with above average pop in his bat. His top two tools are power and his arm. Nothing else is a plus tool and you don’t use your arm much at 1B so that tool is negated. That means unless he hits for power, he really doesn’t have anything that says All Star at all. Posting a couple of fans blogging about their favorite team is really not a valid argument at all.
acell, I quoted EXACTLY what your source said. They were quoting all the other services up to that point. Then they started writing like the fanboys they are and tried to say that he was a potential all star.
You are wrong about BA. I posted the link above.
No he didn’t. Casas had a 60 grade in 2023 prospect handbook. Same as 2022. . in the previous year (2022) the first line of the evaluation literally said he had all star potential. You’re moving the goal posts again with the 60 vs 70 ranking.
I’m literally looking at the prospect handbook. It gave him a 60 grade. Same as the year before.
No. A 55 grade is not an all star. Its a slightly above average MLB player. Even a 60 is not an All Star.
Keith Law was employed by major league teams. You weren’t. Enough said.
Lmfao. I post links to 3 of the most respected sources in sports and you post a link to a fan blog. Give me a break.
The final grade by BA was in Feb 2023 and he graded a 55.
He “worked” for an MLB almost 20 years ago. If Keith law was so good at his job why isn’t he still employed by an MLB team?
Also way to parrot the nonsense of another poster before actually analyzing the source for yourself. More lazy responses by you.
Lastly the prospect handbook was published after February 2023. Final grade 60. That also doesn’t change the fact that in 2022 they described him as having all star potential. Your inability to admit you’re wrong is almost as impressively pathetic as others on the site. Also I was able to condense every response into one post. Perhaps you’d be able to do the same if you put the goal posts down that you’ve been moving around on your own argument.
websoulsurfer – Your data is incorrect. Scouting services and organizations like BA, MLB, FanGraphs etc. are two separate entities. Scouting services do the things you suggested and they share them with as many organizations as possible because that’s how they support themselves financially.
What you have wrong is the way places like BA, MLB etc put their lists together. They have many sources for their information. They pick and choose which ones they use. They also have direct contact with the public relations groups from each organization. The PR groups have an agenda as I mentioned. That agenda is fed to all the organizations as to the club’s perspective on each player. That is where the biggest bias comes in. The rating services NEED to use the clubs PR perspective in their rankings to maintain a relationship with each organization. The scouting services provide data where as the front offices provide direction.
FYI.. the Athletic isn’t really a rating service. It’s one guy who is really bad at his job providing his own opinion based on how much he got paid by the agents of the individual players. There is no integrity in the listings from the Athletic. It’s a purchased list because the Athletic isn’t a legit baseball entity like BA, MLB or even FanGraphs.
My recommendation to you is to research individual scouts and evaluate their track record and then weigh their opinions greater than the crap you read from all the major rating services. Since the nineties I’ve found specific writers have far more insights and a far better track record than rating services. One example is John Benson. Years ago he published an annual book on prospects and his details far exceeded those of BA, MLB, and others. Fangraphs didn’t exist back then.
Each year there were many magazines who published lists like Law does and you could cross reference the comments and then after the fact see who was the most accurate. Things aren’t so simple now. Data is pulled from sources unknown and opinions are formed by specific people under the umbrella of an organization. Thus, rankings today tend to reflect the message being pushed by the organization not the low level scouting reports from scouting services. Politics in baseball is a continuously growing problem. Much like the news on television, there is always an angle behind the message of the story.
Take another look at the scouting industry because I think your facts are inaccurate. The scouting services employ scouts, contract scouts and gather data from multiple scouts on each player. They turn around and sell their information to the entities you are calling scouting services. They are NOT scouting services they are rating services who have editors that assemble the data from the scouting services and the organizations to build their lists. Each player has an agent who has industry connections. Each organization has public relations and marketing departments pushing their agendas including media influencers.
Your perspective on how all this works is a bit naive. Dig into it. It’s fascinating how many layers there are to the marketing of individual players whether they are stars or prospects.
Well KD if you watched the minors you would know the difference between Casas and Dalbec.
Dalbec chases incessantly his out of zone swinging is ridiculously high. He is actually striking out at a 40% rate in AAA he is lost at the plate even in AAA.
Casas is struggling no doubt but this is his MO whenever he moves to another level. It usually takes him some time to adjust. He’s a very cerebral hitter who studies pitchers has an excellent idea of the strike zone and is hitting to a ridiculously low babip for someone that hits the ball as hard as he does. Let’s be clear Dalbec when he makes contact hits at as hard as anyone in baseball he just never has made a lot of contact. Casas will adjust and he will hit Indint have the same hope for Dalbec he just has to big a hole in his swing. There is no comparison between the two.
he’s got a real thing for Dalbec for some reason and bases it solely on 4 weeks at the end of 2021.
Dumpster Divin Theo
Dalbec is that you
DDT – No I am Dalbec’s father (think Star Wars and a deep voice)
KD Dalbec got more then 500 plate Appearances before being demoted maybe we should give Casas that many as well before making a the same judgement what do you think KD?
Bruin1012 – I want Casas to get his at bats when he is ready. The point is he’s not ready as proven by his performance.
Think back. Bogey got a call up and did well enough to stay. Mookie got a call up and did well enough to stay. Devers got a call up and was the golden boy so he stayed when he shouldn’t have. Benny started quickly like the others. Dalbec did the same. He earned more playing time despite the front office clearly preferring Casas.
Did he get a fair chance? No just like Chavis who should have been given starts at 3B when Devers proved he had no ability to field. Boston’s front office has issues. Nepotism, racism and some really poor judgment.
I believe every player who earns his way to the majors deserves a fair number of at bats to prove themselves. Dalbec got short changed which angers me. Casas didn’t earn his promotion just like Duran didn’t when he was first brought up in the past. If you want to give a kid a quick look over a weekend when injuries happen, that’s fine with me but to prematurely bring up players not ready for MLB pitching is counter productive.
Casas has plenty to prove at the AAA level. He should be homering every four games and batting around ..300 and playing 1B at an above league average rate. When that happens, bring him up and leave him up until it’s obvious he isn’t cutting it or he makes the starting line-up long term.
How many plate appearances is enough? Also, if a team sees a player can perform extremely well for long periods of time but not the entire season should they be finding ways to resolve the problem or should they just send him back to AAA?
Dalbec’s second half stats after 4 seasons
300 plate appearances .258 average .321 OBP .549 SLG .869 OPS 129 OPS+
My issue is if a guy can do that much half the year why isn’t someone working with him to figure out why it doesn’t happen the entire year. You make gross generalizations about strike zone coverage, striking out too much and many other meaningless comments that just show you don’t support the player. The kid deserves proper coaching to fix his issues so he’s an asset for the organization. It’s not about him competing against Casas it’s about making the team better in the future.
Casas clearly isn’t ready. Dalbec has proven that he can have half seasons worthy of starting. Why not address the challenges instead of writing off Dalbec and pushing Casas to fail because he’s not properly prepared.
I want Casas and ALL farm players to get the necessary at bats to have a fair chance to prove themselves. When I see someone who standouts like Dalbec does for half a season, I want to know why the other half is so bad and how to fix it. He’s proven he has significant talent that has holes. Fix the holes.
Casas needs to have a similar thorough evaluation of why he’s failing now. Frankly his minor league track record screams league average player so I’m not surprised by the failure but pointing it out isn’t enough. Someone needs to work with him in AAA to hit a HR every four games, bat .300 and play defense at an above league average level. Everyone is quick to point out the problems or ignore the problems depending on who they want playing for the Red Sox. I say fix all the problems and make the organization stronger. If a guy is league average at every level of the minors it’s unfair to impose a future superstar tag on him. It didn’t work for Downs and it’s not working for Casas and crapping on Dalbec is counter productive.
won’t agree with you on an occasion of Devers.
Raffy improved playing defence, these indexes talk for itself, he did an only error in a match against Cleveland when it is raining, if you look games, then must notice it:
29G, 27 GS, 254 Inn. +3Rdrs, +0.4 WAR, 1E, .986 Fielding
Bogie = Recorded errors and misplays are two key elements to the game of baseball. If a defender gets a ball hit to him and he can’t make the play he has failed at his job. Whether a score keeper has been paid to give the fielder no error is out of everyone’s hands. In 2022 he had 52 misplayed balls which would have lowered his fielding percentage below .900. The fact that the score keepers recorded 14 errors not 52 is out of everyone’s control. It doesn’t mean the misplay didn’t happen, it just means the recording of the play was altered to improve the stats of one Rafael Devers the BUTCHER OF BOSTON.
Watch the video from the 5 for 5 Adley Rutschman game. Tell me how many of his hits were errors by Devers that didn’t get recorded. Adley still got on base and scored which hurt the Red Sox but the Pitchers got to eat the bad play not the fielder making the errors.
Was Derek Jeter a good defender on SS ?
Bogie – NO. He may be one of the most over-rated players of all time.
He played over 20 years and accumulated lots of stats but in the end he was just a slightly better than average player who played for a team that guarantees it’s players the greatest chance to be in the HOF.
A few years ago when he went into the HOF on the first ballot I put together a detailed analysis that showed that over his 20 plus years he was NEVER the clear choice as the best SS in the game that year. All those seasons and he was never the clear BEST. Ripken was, Trammel was, Tejada was and AROD was but not Jeter. I think he belonged in the hall but no way did he deserve to be a first ballot player. He made a couple of highly publicized plays in his career. He was a punch and Judy hitter with his inside out swing. He had limited range and average hands as a fielder and a relatively weak arm compared to the great shortstops of his era.
What do you think?
I think that 5 Gold Gloves that was got by Jeter were undeserved and were far better protective SS in those seasons that had to get rewards.
Him (- 9.4 dWAR) and (- 165 Rdrs) talk for itself – career in the SS.
I’d rather have a shut-down, multi-inning reliever than a mediocre starter. That said, the Red Sox really should give Whitlock 2023 to show if he can be more than a mediocre starter.
Im throwing this out there, is anyone questioning his work ethic?
This story is from Feb:
Does he workout? His muscle tone doesnt look it.
Yes, this is all interesting but the real news is that the RS are OVER .500
Starters are a thing of the past,with a few exceptions. Most rotations have openers four innings or less. Bullpens should increase in number to compensate for the increased workload created by said “starters”!
Yeah, that;’s not true.
Does anyone remember a time in may of oh hell I don’t remember the exact year but a rookie named Dustin pedroia was batting like .175 and everyone said send him back to the minors. Seems to me he won rookie of the year thanks to a guy named Francona believing in him.
And MVP the following year
Fever Pitch Guy
Rsox – And Evan Grant should have lost his job after leaving Pedroia completely off his MVP ballot.
Fever Pitch Guy
jeff – This is not directed at just you, but everyone who keeps bringing up Pedey as an excuse to leave Casas in the Red Sox lineup for another few months:
Pedroia figured it out on May 2, 2007 after 166 PA’s with the Boston Red Sox
Casas has already had 187 PA’s with the Boston Red Sox.
Pedroia was a middle infielder who wasn’t counted on for offense.
Casas is a first baseman, a position which requires above average hitters.
Pedroia was surrounded by a powerhouse lineup including Youk, Manny, Ortiz and Lowell.
Casas is surrounded by Devers and ….? Time will tell if Yoshida, Duran and Verdugo produce all year.
Pedroia is not a good comparison for Casas, at all. And Tito went on record as saying Pedey would have been sent down if he didn’t improve by the end of May.
Then maybe the answer is to give Casas a deadline as a challenge. Cora challenged Verdugo and it’s paid off so far, challenge the rookie and see if he rises to it
You must be including last year’s plate appearances. Can’t carry over one year to another ask any player. So give him til the end of may as tito gave pedey then tell me has to go. Right now it’s too early.
Fever Pitch Guy
Jeff – That doesn’t make sense. Every plate appearance is part of a rookie’s development. Most rookies don’t perform well the first month or two, and often use the offseason and spring training to work on improving.
I can name several players who didn’t get it going until later in their second season – Pedroia and Duran are two that we’ve already discussed.
I’m fine with giving Casas until the end of May.
The Red Sox don’t really have much of a choice but to give Casas another month or even two to figure it out. Dalbec is struggling worse and other than moving Turner to 1B full time, there is no one else. Not even a decent prospect.
It is absolutely to early give the kid 350 plate appearances if he’s still sub .200 then send him down it’s just way to early at this point especially when, even in the minors, he struggles a bit in the beginning then takes off.
All what you posted is true, but…
Sox were contenders back then. They aren’t now. Nothing is wasted giving this kid his shot.
Jeff512 – Great comment. Yes it did happen but don’t EVER compare the cheater named Cora to TITO. That’s sacrilegious and incredibly disrespectful to Francona!!.
2007. Pedroia was a great fielding middle infielder and ANY offense from him was considered a bonus. He came up in 2006 and struggled. Then in May 2007 he hit .415 and never looked back.
So you are saying that Casas is going to hit .400 in May? When he doesn’t, will you admit he’s no Pedroia?
Casas stays. The Sox are probably not in the hunt. When the warmer weather arrives in New England, I’d expect him to reach his epitome .what do they have to lose? Fourth place perhaps?
Exacxtly, the same people who say the Red Sox have no chance are the ones saying Casas should go down. If they have no chance why not play their number 2 prospect since in theory there is absolutely nothing to lose?
I am about seeing what the young guys have to offer this year,.
Sycophant – I’m one of the people who have documented why the Red Sox are a 75 win team and yes Casas should go down.
You make an assumption that he’s good. You make an assumption that he’s better than Dalbec. Yet, the numbers show that Dalbec did better than Casas when he broke in and then couldn’t handle the adjustments.
How do you know Casas will handle the adjustments when he’s so bad right now there are no need for adjustments by the pitchers. They have his number.
That’s why even in another down year caused by Bloom, the Red Sox need to bring back the superior player Dalbec (based on evidence not opinion) and let him play 1B while Casas goes back to AAA and gets the proper time to develop as a hitter.
The problem in Boston is that bringing up Bogey too early worked out well in the long run (or at least until Bloom showed up). Bringing up Mookie early also worked out well until Bloom showed up. Bringing up Devers way too early was far less successful but he got to stay due to being the key representative from the DR Baseball Academy which was pegged as Boston’s new pipeline to talent. He should have been sent down but wasn’t fortunately the team was so good in 2018 they didn’t need a good 3B.
The expectations are set. Bring the guys up early and it will work out. Unfortunately, since Mookie that’s not been true except for Benny. Devers eventually worked out but nothing since then. Early call up of Downs back fired. Early call up of Duran back fired. Early call up of Dalbec back fired. Now the early call up of Casas has back fired.
Boston won’t learn from this. Guess who will be the next early call-up to back fire? Mayer since he’s passed the apparently Bloom over-rated Yorke. This trend needs to stop. The team isn’t competitive, it needs a new GM, new Manager and new MLB players through trades and Free Agency.
The farm system can contribute but the players need to be ready and the track record post Devers has not been good. Let the players actually earn a promotion rather than trying to be the next shiny object the GM can take credit for. Put Casas in AAA. Live with Dalbec until Casas is ready or the end of the year. The team will still be at home watching the playoffs from their couches so no harm no foul. Casas might turn into the player everyone wants him to be but as of right now, he’s less likely than Dalbec based on preliminary performance.
I didn’t make an assumption he is good. I actually never said anything like that. I said Boston’s talent evaluators think he is good.
Which answers your question WHY?
If this is a down year and the Red Sox have no shot as a 75-win team then they are going to play their top prospects of which Casas is one.
It’s pretty much that simple.
KD17 hasnt been doing too well this year. Remember this lineup is a “major downgrade from last year” or that the Red Sox were going to go “5-12” on that April road trip. And then there’s “Bloom shouldve re-signed Wacha”. Last year he hated the Wacha signing, this year he hated that he was let go, thats 0 for 2 in my book, on one player.
His hatred for Bloom and Cora fog his brain up, so that he doesnt see things honestly.
He also has some weird projection system for wins and losses which is always skewed agains the Red Sox too…
Dumpster Divin Theo
Too many words for a mediocre unwatchable ball club. Chippy- elevator ride only lasts 40 seconds – you made it through the 5th sentence maybe
Sycophant – Ask yourself why the farm system exists. That’s how simple it is. It’s there to prepare young players for the MLB.
Based on performance, Casas isn’t ready so where should he be regardless of the win-loss record. In the minors.
If he hits .300, homers every four games and plays above league average defense at 1B at AAA he will be ready for the majors. Until then, he’s got a ton of things to learn.
You still think you’re arguing with me for some reason. I’ve never once said what I think about Casas.
It’s rather amusing.
It kind of is….
the one thing I’ll give KD credit for is his ability to talk himself into circles
The guy wrote like 1000 words arguing with someone who wasn’t even arguing back.
Lol, Sinister. Did he at least win the imaginary argument?
Not all of us. No, the team has no shot at a playoff spot. Yes, Casas should stay in the majors to let him work it out.
No shot at a playoff stop? Red Sox are in possession of a playoff spot right now.
At this point it would seem the whole argument is moot. Even if the Sox wanted to send Casas down there is no one better coming to take his place. Now if he is still struggling when Duvall is ready to come back that becomes another story. At that point the two players on the bubble would be Casas and Tapia. Tapia is redundant on the roster with Jarren Duran if everyone is healthy, however if Casas is still not hitting Turner could play 1B with Duvall playing DH/LF, and lets not forget Duvall has played 43 games at 1B (though none since 2018)
Rsox – All reasonable suggestions. The question is which one helps the team the most for 2024 or does the team think it’s in the playoff hunt now that they are above .500?
Layer the talent to find the DH if Turner plays 1B and Casas goes to AAA.
3B – Devers could be DH but who would play 3B? Pretty much anyone could be a better defender so who could also help the offense while improving on Devers’ bad defense?
LF – Yoshida could be DH but does the team have 3 quality OFers. Right now there is Duran who is hot and hopefully it will last. Verdugo is always a solid option and Duvall upon his return would give you the chance to move Yoshida to DH or split time between Yoshida and Duvall at DH in hopes of keeping both healthy. The problem is Duvall is streaky so when he goes cold it will be similar to having him on the IL, he won’t be a good option to start. Also, Duran may or may not stay hot enough to keep his starting spot. If he lapses back to his previous level of play who replaces him?
The OF is a big problem because Yoshida is one dimensional, Duvall is streaky, Duran is an unknown but looks great at the moment and Verdugo is the only reliable outfielder. The infield can plug holes at SS and 2B with some of their weak depth but those players aren’t the future so it’s not a long term fix it’s a band aid. Mondesi might relieve the pain at SS when he gets healthy but can he stay healthy. Kiki is now batting above his career average so he should regress in the near future making the shortstop position both a defensive and offensive liability.
There are many fingers trying to fill the holes in the roster as you pointed out. The problem is all the depth that Bloom acquired is not league average or better so none of the fingers are long term solutions.
So here are the holes
CF NONE if Duran continues to play like he is now
SS Defense and hitting once Kiki’s temp hot streak ends
1B Hitting and Defense unless JT is used there which increases injury risk
DH Best choice is Devers but it’s not going to happen so JT is good unless needed at 1B/3B. After that Yoshida is next best option but it creates a need for 3 solid OFers. After that, the cupboard is bare.
The argument is moot because Bloom didn’t properly stock the cabinets with the right resources to back fill poor performances and injuries. He bought K-Mart products at cheap prices hoping they will over perform. So far, that’s not happening.
Maybe it’s time to use some money and get a 3B or a LF or a 1B for 2024 so Devers or Yoshida could move to DH and the defense could improve or JT could stay at DH and we would have a 2024 1B since nobody wants to use Dalbec to fill the void.
Each time the team goes over .500 the fan base will want to play for 2023 and that’s a double edged sword with Bloom in charge. The CAP could be exceeded yet again or farm system players might lose their chance to be promoted if they meet the criteria for promotion. That’s why a 75 win season is perfect for doing what’s right for the future whereas an 85 win season could diminish the future in hopes of making the playoffs. Double edged blade swinging back and forth as the Red Sox teeter around the .500 mark.
KD 17 –
I agree with SS, if Kike plays there, Yoshi plays defence gets worse on the left, Devers under a doubt.
BTW, Folks. There is an alternative to Casas at 3rd….
Turner to 3rd, Devers to 1st
Fever Pitch Guy
DBH – Having Devers move to 1B midseason is not an option. When it’s time to make that change, he needs to be told in November or December so that he has the offseason to learn the position and practice.
And BTW he’s actually improved quite a bit on defense this year.
FPG… did I hear correctly that a couple of days ago was Devers 1st error?? I also played 3b back in the day and was pretty good with the glove( I thought) till coach said sure you catch everything hit to you but you have as much range as a refrigerator… fair enough…lol
Despite what KD is saying/(lying about Dever’s defense has improved and his range has been fine.
Fever Pitch Guy
olmtiant – It’s true, he has one error on the season. Honestly he probably should have been charged with a couple more, but in today’s feelgood-everyone-is-wonderful-world it would be too mean to score anything an error.
Your coach sounds like Lou Brown from Major League!
FPG – Just because Devers doesn’t get errors counted against him by the score keepers doesn’t mean he’s improving. I’ve been over this a million times.
I think it was 10 games into the season the last time I documented the misplays that didn’t count against Devers as errors in 2023. He had 4 including two against BAL when Rutschman hit balls to him that he misplayed and he got hits so he went 5 for 5. We all know the score keepers are cheating at Bloom’s/Cora’s request so lets be real. His true fielding percentage is below .900 for 2022 despite him supposedly making 14 errors. It was 52 misplays as documented by Baseball Reference. He was below .900 in 2023 after 10 games and yet had NO ERRORS. Since misrepresenting errors is a form of cheating my first guess is Cora is behind it. It’s in his wheelhouse.
Just think about how badly a team must want to keep Devers at 3B to have the score keepers FUDGE THE NUMBERS on 38 plays in a single season. He didn’t belong there in 2017 when he came up, he didn’t belong there any year after that and he didn’t belong there when he signed a decade ago. His ACTUAL fielding percentage hasn’t changed over time, it’s only been manipulated. Watch the games, I’ve seen two hoppers hit him on the foot and he doesn’t get an error. I’ve seen him take a slow one hopper and throw wild to first base with no error. It’s a travesty, it’s a mockery, it’s a sham. It’s a travesty of a mockery of a sham!!!
You really are drinking the cool aid. I am shocked.
Fever Pitch Guy
KD – I never brought up errors! LOL!!
All I said is his defense has improved, based on watching the games. I have never put much stock in defensive stats.
And earlier I posted that Devers probably should have been charged with a couple more errors, but it’s always a judgement call so no sense debating it with the official scorer.
KD17… I agree with your point on Devers, that there plays that he doesn’t make that he should, and doesn’t get charged errors, but he worked hard at it and for the most part he is serviceable. I really feel, the best move for him would be to first base, but to start a season at it and play there for all of spring training… so next year or the following year would be a good time to start that experiment.
FPG – True. Next time you think he looks better count the balls hit to him that he doesn’t make a play on and tell me again that he’s improving.
THE BUTCHER OF BOSTON!!!!
And that’s just based on the small portion of actual errors that has been recorded!! If they counted all the misplays and put it in a fielding percentage I truly believe it would be .850 or lower. I don’t have the time to go back through all those years. It took me forever to review every game in 2022 to come up with the 52 misplays. 38 non outs not recorded as errors.
I will say this. The score keeping at other parks are equally bad. I have watched MANY games in 2023 where obvious errors have been called hits. How can a 3B take a one hopper and throw it into right field and it’s called a hit. The announcer on the game stated it was obviously an error and then said wait, they are giving him a hit. Well that makes no sense!!! I couldn’t stop laughing.
It begs the question, who is holding the gun to the head of the score keepers these days? Gambling syndicates, front offices, agents, the commissioner or maybe a secret hitters union!!! hahaha
Fever Pitch Guy
KD – I think part of it is because ERA isn’t valued as much as it used to be, although errors aren’t as big a deal either.
Back in the day, Wade Boggs would get someone to approach the scorer after a game and change an error on him to a hit!
Fever, You are right not to put any stock in small sample sizes on defense. All the defensive metrics use 400+ games or about 3 seasons as the minimum data set size for establishing defensive performance ratings that are accurate to a margin for error of 5%.
Errors are a subjective ruling made by the home team’s scorer. You are safe to ignore those entirely when judging defensive performance.
Cooper – I agree he’s worked hard since he was a 16 yr old in the DR Baseball Academy and he really has not improved, he simply gets less errors charged against him. As an ex-pitcher, I wouldn’t have wanted him in the infield when I pitched. I’ve seen hundreds of high school and college players who play the position much better than he does. There is no good excuse for keeping him there except the hope that the DR Academy will maintain their pipeline to the Boston organization.
I played 1B when not pitching and scooping is such a big part of playing 1B along with footwork. His footwork at 3B is one of his biggest problems so I don’t think his skills will transfer well to 1B. I think he will have weak scooping skills based on how bad he is on short hop plays at 3B and I think he will be awkward moving quickly to the base to set up for a throw because his balance at 3B is one of his other big issues. He also shows no baseball acumen when it comes to determining if a ball is better played by him or the SS so he may wander too far from 1B and interfere with the 2B’s routine ground balls like he does at 3B for the SS. Devers skill set screams DH. He’s been injury free for the most part so DH might protect him as he ages because if Boston lost Devers they would be in very bad shape. He may be one of the most critical hitters for his team in all of baseball.
For me, I’d like to see a good fielding 3B of the future take reps in 2023 so by 2024 Devers can be full time DH. That way in 2024 Story can play SS or Mondesi if he gets healthy and stays healthy. Story at 2B with Mondesi at SS and a new good fielding 3B would dramatically change the Red Sox defensive stats.
Unfortunately, Devers defense has never frustrated the public like it does the pitching staff. I hope transitioning him somewhere else can happen in 2024 but I think the Dominican Republic connection is too meaningful to allow him to move anywhere else even if it continues to hurt the team.
Fever Pitch Guy –
29G, 27 GS, 254 Inn. +3Rdrs, +0.4 dWAR, 1E, .986 Fielding
Devil! It is very bad defence. Lol!!!
Exactly also as Randy Red Sox told me that at Wong bad defence, only this troll met quickly, his arguments it was been that he didn’t watch after statistics and doesn’t look matches, but he knows exactly that Wong bad defender because so KD17 said in fact, Wong came in the exchange of Mookie ( transfer of Bloom), in fact KD17 doesn’t love of Bloom and to spit on arguments, likes to poke arguments, but when other give arguments he simply ignores a post. Lol!!!
C.Wong ( C ) – 22g; 18gs; 12cg; 58ab ( 65 PA ) 14 H; 4 Double; 1 HR; 5 Walks; 1sb; 1cs; 18 SO; .241 AVG; .675 Ops; 84 Ops; 0.8 WAR; .333 Babip ( .332 Babip – 2 Seasons Worcester ), +0.8dWAR; +6Rdrs; 156 Inn. 14 A; 2e ( Catcher Interference) ; 7 SB/ 6 CS; 46s; .988 Fielding; starting catcher – W/L 11/7; 105 – 79 runs ( +26 D ).
After the care of S.Murphy from Athletics in National League, Вонга has a good chance of to winGold Glove.
Bogie – Stats become less reliable when recorded improperly by score keepers. For me, a ball hit to a fielder should be caught and a throw should render an out. The fact that Devers can catch a one hopper and throw the ball into right field without an error appalls me because fans read the stats thinking they are accurate and they are not.
In 2022 there were 52 balls hit to Devers that he misplayed. 14 were counted as errors. Baseball Reference documents each game and each at bat. If you meticulously review every game you will find 38 instances of a base hit to 3B while Devers is playing. These are the errors that don’t count as errors because the score keeper has chosen to ignore Devers bad play. Maybe the score keeper as an employee of the Red Sox was ordered to lower Devers errors. Maybe there are other reasons motivating the score keeper to overlook his bad play. The reason doesn’t matter as much as the impact of the inaccurate data.
Based on Total Chances in 2022 Devers fielding percentage was .964 (3 points below league average and 14 points higher than any year of his career). Now if you add 38 misplays not accounted for in the errors but that impacted the pitching staff and the outcome of many games in 2022 Devers fielding percentage is .868!!! That’s atrocious!!
So nearly 15% of all balls hit to Devers that could be fielded were not in 2022. Does that sound like a guy who is playing better?
After 10 games in 2023 Devers had 0 errors yet he had 4 misplays. If you accurately account for his failures at fielding in those games his fielding percentage was comparable to the number I just pointed out for 2022.
So once again, in 2023 through 10 games he was missing 15% of the balls he should be fielding. There is no way anyone should suggest that his perform ance is an acceptable problem because Devers could DH and Boston could put a fielder at 3B that makes half as many mistakes. That single change would remove a massive burden on the pitching staff.
So laugh if you think people are fools for counting actual errors not recorded errors but many of us like to deal with reality not fiction created by score keepers under the influence. What influence has yet to be determined but something is motivating them to cheat. And the second you mention cheating only one man comes to mind!!!
I know everyone is down on Casas but besides his 30% k rate which is concerning the rest of the advanced analytics are just saying he’s hitting to extremely bad luck.
According to Fangraphs he’s still walking at a 17.7% clip. The real kicker is this guy has a .149 babip and mind you this no Punch and Judy hitter his exit velocity is above the Red Hot Alex Verdugo. He’s very slow so maybe he’s hitting a ton of balls on the ground, that would be a big nope, he’s hitting just 34% of his balls in play on the ground well below big league averages. He’s hitting 48% of his balls in play in the air with over a 15% launch angle his line drive rate is improved over last year as well he’s hitting 18% line drives versus 7.5%.
This is why everyone needs to chill on this guy unless he starts to get a 40% k rate like Dalbec his numbers will turn. His babip comically low without the underlying metrics to support that low babip. No it would be foolish to send him down at this point give the kid his 350 plate appearances at least unless you are foolish enough to think he will continue to hit at a .149 babip news flash he won’t. This is just a slow start coupled with horrible luck when he puts the ball in play. His k rate is important to watch but if he brings that back down below 30% preferably 25% he will be just fine if it continues to go up and he starts to k at a Dalbec 40% rate then a trip to AAA will probably be in the cards.
Bruin1012 – You couldn’t have made a better testament to why using FanGraphs is incredibly WRONG. Is Downs still testing out off the charts too?. Give it a rest with the fake data. The metrics are meaningless. They confirm that Fangraphs has no clue what they are doing. It’s data that is being misinterpreted and used improperly to come to wrong conclusions.
Bruin1012 – As a follow-up. The word that explains what you are doing is
Casas isn’t cutting it and Devers can’t field. FACTS…. lets read the statistics based on performance and believe in the facts not the fiction created to expand the fandom into the geek world.
If a tornado hits the house at 110 mph rather than 150 mph NOBODY in their right mind says “Wow lucky us. Fangraphs says it wasn’t all that fast”. People survey the damage much like reading the stat line and come to the conclusion it was devastating like Casas batting average..
the data isn’t fake just because you disagree with it
KD, you beat me to the punch. Why ‘Advanced Analytics” suck explained perfectly!!!
Just because you don;’t understand how something works doesn’t mean it’s wrong or sucks.
Fever Pitch Guy
KD – You forgot to add one thing … Fangraphs has all those stats, including their own personal version of WAR, to make money!!!
They intentionally CREATE stats, many that nobody here can possibly prove out, as a way to create a dependency on their website.
Without all those BS stats, that website wouldn’t be nearly as profitable. It might not even make money, because most of us would go to Baseball-Reference or ESPN for our data needs.
Fever Pitch Guy –
I use to the statistician Baseball – Reference, you can check protective descriptions of Devers and Wong, there aren’t problems, if I not rights that, I acknowledge the error regarding defence of Raffy and Wong.
And I look games.
FPG and DBH1969 = Thank you. The financial motivation and the Advanced Analytics comments are spot on.
Fever Pitch Guy
Bruin – Normally a .149 BABIP would be indicative of some bad luck, but NOT when your BA is a pathetic .128 LOL!!!
You know WHY his BABIP is 21 points higher than his BA? Because he’s struck out 29 times and hit just 3 homeruns!
BTW – Sorry about your hockey team, that was the biggest upset in NHL history.
Thanks man crazy stuff
The same fools in here bitching and complaining about all the negatives of players performances so far….. how bout for once talk about the positives. Duran has been outstanding and most of the “complainers” wrote him off and said he sucks…. now that they are wrong, it’s on to Casas. How about admitting at this point that the Yoshida signing was not that bad and he looks to be a quality Major League bat. Or that Devers Defense is still improving and he had only 1 error through April. How about the Catching platoon… its working out nicely so far. How about 2 of the last 3 outings both Kluber and Sale looked good.
You fools keep on taking the bait of the doom and gloom negative Boston Media…. fools like Schaugnessy, Tomase (what a tool), and all the negative sports talk radio heads the spew nonsense constantly to get clicks and phone calls for their miserable ratings.
At least the Red Sox didn’t sign Carlos Rodon for 30 + mill a year, and the dude probably won’t pitch for even half the term of his contract. The Yankees are a .500 team currently and the media praised them for their great off season, Hows that working out? The Padres and Mets spent all that money, yet the Sox have the same record.
It is a long season, so we will see what happens, but if the Red Sox get through May and into June with their heads above water, maybe they fight for a Wild Card spot and figure things out as they go on some of these young players like Casas.
So far so good. For too many people, it is like they have an uncontrollable compulsion to hate the RS. This is exactly as they are. They look like an 86-87 win team, and always have. That might be good enough to make the playoffs, or it might land them in last in a great division.
I’m not sure why these people cannot simply root for them and enjoy themselves.
Fever Pitch Guy
Joe – You Yankee fans are no different and you know it.
I often read the comments under the Yankee articles.
I see all the Yankee fans calling for Cashman’s and Boone’s head.
I often read how unhappy they are, even right after the Yanks signed Judge and Rodon and Rizzo.
But yet you always get pleasure ripping Sox fans, it’s sad.
I rip fans that need ripping. If a RS fan says some stupid schitt, they don’t a free pass simply because they are RS fans. It can’t work that way. Stupid schitt is stupid schitt.
Fever Pitch Guy
dooper – It’s sad that so many of the Duran haters were motivated by his anti-vax stance last year. He’s a great guy and he worked hard to improve after last season, reminds me so much of a young Ellsbury.
I don’t think anybody is writing off Casas, he just needs to follow the same path as Duran by going down to AAA and working on his game and rebuilding his confidence. Yoshida is performing as I initially expected, hopefully it continues as pitchers will certainly adjust after facing him for the first time.
I’m the only one who kept saying the platoon is better than Vazquez, but I am waiting for more feedback on how they handle the pitching staff.
In all fairness to the Yanks, they have been decimated with injuries which is further reason why I strongly believe it will be the Battle of the Healthiest this year. Even the Astros are quite vulnerable because of all their injuries. It’s shaping into an entertaining season, which is all I ask for!
Cooper – I agree there is a lot of player specific complaining using an incredibly small sample size. On the up side, Yoshida looks better than expected so far but it’s a small sample size. Duran looks better than expected but it’s a small sample size. Heck, after 10 years of sucking Kiki is playing above his career .239 average, not much above it and with an error estimate by season’s end that would put Devers to shame but there is goodness in his hot streak. We would be foolish to think his cold streak isn’t going to completely negate his hot streak just like the previous 10 years but some will only remember the hot streak.
Boston is playing better than expected thanks to surprise performances by guys who were either unknown (Yoshida) or coming off bad previous experiences (Duran). Duvall was a pleasant surprise but his lengthy track record of streaky is still likely to occur in 2023 for Boston so lets embrace the good and be aware of the potential for very bad.
Verdugo to me is the single biggest positive so far. He’s a league average player performing at a 145 OPS+ level. Will he regress to his mean of 110? Probably but it’s sure fun to watch his upside. If Duran can become a 115 to 125 OPS= guy that would be huge for the future. Yoshida’s ability to make contact and put the ball in play will give him a high OBP since he has a good eye at the plate. His HRs are an unexpected bonus. It’s hard to tell whether the ball is juiced as much in Japan as it is in the MLB in 2023 but something has him hitting HRs at an exceptional pace for him.
The projections I put together based on strength of schedule had the Red Sox finishing at 14-15 in April. They finished 15-14 which is a good sign. Since then they have won 2 against TOR in a series they were projected to go 1-3. That’s another positive. Sale is now pitching every other game like his old self. That’s another positive that should improve a month from now. Kluber and Paxton are still not looking like major contributors but the young guns are keeping the team in games and that’s all you can ask from them.
The 2023 season looks more positive on May 1 than April 1. Hopefully, that will continue but I’m not ready yet to suggest a playoff run. Things would need to take a much bigger uptick than they have so far.
Fever Pitch Guy
KD – Excellent analysis as always!
The only thing I have to say is don’t forget Verdugo was a highly rated prospect only 4 years ago, ranked 19th by Baseball Prospectus. His slow major league start had to do with his immaturity more than anything. Dewey took him under his wing this past offseason, and it’s really paid off.
Dumpster Divin Theo
Mi Casas, Su Casas. Everybody Casas. Everybody Rhumba!