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Red Sox Notes: Barnes, Bleier, Paxton, Bello, Pivetta

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The Red Sox made a change to their bullpen earlier this week, shipping out Matt Barnes to the Marlins for Richard Bleier. Boston reportedly paid down around $5.5MM to facilitate that deal, a testament to Barnes’ struggles since he signed a two-year, $18.75MM extension in July 2021.

That trade came a few days after the Sox had designated Barnes for assignment, a move that registered as a surprise even given the righty’s uneven past year and a half. The UCONN product had spent his entire career with the Red Sox since being drafted in the first round in 2011, and he indicated he was taken aback by the DFA.

“It was a complete blindside,” Barnes told reporters (including Chris Cotillo of MassLive) about being taken off the 40-man roster. While he indicated he doesn’t have any animosity about his time in Boston, Barnes also intimated he wasn’t enamored with his usage last season. By the second week of May, he was deployed mostly in low-leverage situations. Between May 6 and 30, he was called upon ten times. Seven of those contests saw the Sox either trailing late or leading a blowout contest, with Barnes relegated to mop-up work.

“We got to a point in the season where we were either blowing people out or losing a game and unfortunately for me, those are the games I was throwing at that point,” he said. “My workload in the games increased along with the amount of work I was doing to get back to what was normal for me. That’s when my shoulder flared up.” Barnes hit the injured list retroactive to May 31 with shoulder inflammation, an injury that kept him out of action until early August.

Of course, the lack of high-leverage work was in response to Barnes’ struggles. He’d been tagged for an 8.65 ERA in 10 appearances through May 5. That was on the heels of a 6.48 showing in the second half of 2021 that led the Sox to leave him off the playoff roster. He actually fared quite well to close out the 2022 campaign, posting a 1.66 ERA in 23 games to finish out the year. That wasn’t enough to grab a lasting 40-man spot over the winter, perhaps due to a still diminished 21.7% strikeout rate in that stretch.

Red Sox’s chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom discussed the Barnes DFA and subsequent trade on the Fenway Rundown podcast with Cotillo yesterday. Bloom noted that trading Barnes to Miami was “not something that we knew was going to happen at the time of the DFA,” suggesting the opportunity to make the trade arose after the reliever lost his roster spot. He pointed to Bleier’s propensity for weak contact and previous success in the AL East as a member of the Yankees and Orioles as reasons he was an appealing target for the front office.

Bleier adds a second left-hander to the Boston relief corps, joining offseason signee Joely Rodríguez. The Sox had a decent amount of turnover in that regard, waiving Darwinzon Hernández, trading Josh Taylor for Adalberto Mondesi, and seeing Matt Strahm depart via free agency. Boston has starting pitching prospects like Chris Murphy and Brandon Walter who could theoretically factor into that mix after securing 40-man roster spots.

James Paxton is another southpaw on the roster. He’s pitched just six MLB games over the past three seasons due to arm injuries. That’s raised some speculation about the possibility of the veteran seeing action in relief as a means of building his innings gradually. Bloom didn’t rule that out entirely, though he cautioned that might not be prudent for a pitcher who has started all 137 of his career big league outings.

“At the stage of his career that he’s at and having been through as much medically as he’s been through, adding the variable of asking him to do something he hasn’t really done is something we would have to think long and hard before doing,” Bloom told Cotillo. “That doesn’t rule it out, but you do have to factor that in.”

The Boston baseball operations leader also pushed back against the possibility of using young righty Brayan Bello out of the bullpen, pointing to his “ceiling of being a really good starting pitcher.” Bloom did note that Boston could “creatively” manage workloads early in the season but made clear the team still views Bello’s future as a starter. Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic writes there’s similarly no consideration of moving Nick Pivetta to the bullpen. Between that trio, Chris Sale, offseason signee Corey Kluber and the rotation conversion for Garrett Whitlock, it seems things are trending towards Tanner Houck sticking in relief for the upcoming season.

Post-Tommy John Players That Could Impact 2023

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News items about Tommy John surgeries are fairly commonplace in baseball circles, but there’s no doubting it’s a significant event for the impacted player. It usually takes over a year to return to form, with a multi-stage rehabilitation process required to regain functionality.

Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.

Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.

Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021

Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.

Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021

Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022  season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.

José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively

Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.

Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021

Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.

James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021

Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.

Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021

May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.

Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021

Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.

Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021

Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.

Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021

Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.

Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021

Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.

Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022

Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.

Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022

Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.

John Means, Orioles — April 2022

Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.

Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022

Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.

Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022

Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.

Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022

Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.

Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022

Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.

Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022

Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022

Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.

September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper

These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.

James Paxton Exercises Player Option

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The Red Sox announced that lefty James Paxton has triggered his $4MM player option, sticking with the club for 2023.

Paxton, 34, has oscillated back and forth in his career between excellent results and injury setbacks. He was drafted by the Mariners and pitched for them from 2013 to 2018. In those six seasons, he never posted an ERA higher than 3.90 but also never stayed healthy for a full season, topping out at 28 starts and 160 1/3 innings in his last year in Seattle. After being traded to the Yankees prior to 2019, he had another solid season, though again limited by injuries. He made 29 starts for the Yanks and tossed 150 2/3 innings, posting an ERA of 3.82.

The injury issues have only gotten worse since then, as the lefty was limited to just five starts and 20 1/3 innings in 2020 due to a left flexor strain. He reached free agency after that campaign and signed a deal to return to Seattle for 2021. He made only one appearance, throwing just 1 1/3 innings, before being shut down and eventually requiring Tommy John surgery.

Going into 2022, his status was uncertain. He was definitely going to miss some time, but it was possible he could be recovered from the TJS in time to contribute to a team down the stretch. He and the Sox agreed to a convoluted deal that reflected that uncertainty. Paxton earned a $6MM salary in 2022, with the convoluted part coming after that. First, the Red Sox would have to decide whether or not to trigger a two-year club option that would pay Paxton $26MM, with a $13MM salary in both 2023 and 2024. If they declined, Paxton would have the ability to trigger a one-year, $4MM option for 2023.

That structure seemed to take into account the wide variance of potential outcomes. If Paxton were able to return and show some of his previous excellent results, the Sox would be rewarded for taking the gamble by getting to lock him down for another two years. If things went the other way, their obligations would be significantly less but Paxton had a safety net in there for himself.

The latter scenario was what ended up happening in 2022, as Paxton suffered a lat strain during his rehab and never made it back to the active roster. Now the southpaw is in the position of having missed an entire season as well as only logging 21 2/3 innings over the past three seasons combined. That made it a fairly easy call for Boston to turn down their option as opposed to committing to Paxton for another two years. That decision was indeed confirmed on Monday.

That put the onus on Paxton to decide whether or not to lock in a $4MM guarantee for 2023. On the one hand, after three straight effectively lost seasons, it’s probably difficult to turn down cash on the barrel like that. On the other hand, Paxton got himself a $10MM guarantee last offseason when it was known that he was going to miss at least part of the year. In the end, he decided to opt for the proverbial bird in the hand as opposed to seeing what other creative deals he could find on the open market.

This decision could potentially work out for both parties in 2023, given the uncertainty in the Boston rotation. Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill have just become free agents, leaving some big holes in the rotation. Chris Sale declined his opt-out and will remain with the club next year, though he’s tough to rely on right now. Similar to Paxton, various injuries have limited him to 48 1/3 total innings over the past three seasons. He will surely have a role but might not be able to log over 200 frames like he has done in the past. That leaves Nick Pivetta as the most reliable member for next year, with some wild card options like Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Brayan Bello in the mix.

With all of that uncertainty, it’s likely that Paxton will be given a chance to make some starts and re-establish his health before returning to the open market a year from now. For the Sox, they will get a high-risk, high-reward roll of the dice that would certainly be worth the modest $4MM figure if Paxton’s health can cooperate.

Red Sox To Decline Option On James Paxton; Paxton Yet To Decide On Player Option

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The Red Sox are declining their two-year, $26MM team option on left-hander James Paxton, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe). The southpaw will now have to decide whether to trigger a $4MM player option to return to Boston or if he wishes to test the open market.

This was a no-brainer for the Red Sox, as the 6’4″ hurler missed the entire 2022 season. Paxton blew out his elbow during his first start of the 2021 season with the Mariners, requiring Tommy John surgery. That cost him the rest of the year, but the Sox signed him to a complex $10MM guarantee last winter. The deal paid him $6MM for this past season and guaranteed him the option to lock in a $4MM salary for next year if Boston didn’t trigger a pair of $13MM club options covering the 2023-24 campaigns.

It was a high-risk, high-upside dice roll for the Red Sox that hasn’t panned out. Boston had hoped Paxton would be able to return late in the season and contribute to a possible playoff push, but he suffered a Grade 2 lat tear while rehabbing and didn’t wind up throwing a big league pitch. With all of 1 1/3 innings pitched over the past two seasons, there was no chance the Red Sox would commit an additional $26MM on a bounceback.

Paxton’s now left with an interesting decision. He may be hard-pressed to find a $4MM base salary on the open market after two essentially lost seasons, but it’s possible he declines the option in search of an incentive-laden deal. Even if the 34-year-old doesn’t find an offer that quite matches the $4MM guarantee he’d be foregoing, he could seek out a deal that contains additional bonuses based on his number of innings pitched or starts in 2023 if he’s confident he’ll be healthy by Spring Training.

James Paxton Diagnosed With Grade 2 Lat Tear, Will Not Pitch This Season

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Red Sox left-hander James Paxton has been diagnosed with a Grade 2 tear in his left lat muscle and will be shut down for the season, manager Alex Cora informed reporters (including Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe). It’ll go down as a completely lost season for the left-hander, who hasn’t pitched in a big league game since April 2021.

Paxton has dealt with numerous injuries throughout his career. He’s spent time on the IL in every year since 2014, including an extended absence for a left lat strain that season. Paxton has also been plagued by hand, forearm, chest, knee and elbow concerns. The arm injuries, in particular, have proven problematic over the past few years. The southpaw missed most of the shortened 2020 campaign trying to rehab from a flexor strain in his forearm. While he avoided undergoing surgery at the time, he blew out in the second inning of his first start the following year and required Tommy John surgery.

That procedure ended Paxton’s reunion tour with the Mariners last year before it got far off the ground, but the Red Sox nevertheless signed him to a $10MM guarantee this past offseason. That rather complex arrangement paid him a $6MM salary for this season and contained a pair of successive $13MM club options — essentially a two-year, $26MM deal — for the Sox to decide upon in conjunction this winter. If the team declines the options, Paxton would receive a $4MM player option for 2023 alone.

On the heels of a third straight injury-wrecked season, there’s essentially no chance the Red Sox commit $13MM salaries for the upcoming two years. It seems likely that Paxton will accept his $4MM option, although there’s at least a small possibility he foregoes that figure in search of an incentive-laden pact on the open market. If Paxton declines the player option, the Sox would’ve committed him $6MM for no return on their investment.

That’s not to say it was an entirely illogical bet for chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and his staff to take last winter. At the time of Paxton’s signing in December, the club anticipated he’d contribute for the second half and a possible playoff push. Despite a minor delay as he dealt with elbow soreness in May, he indeed seemed on track to get on the mound for the season’s final month. Paxton had ramped up a throwing program and begun a rehab assignment last Thursday, but he faced just two batters before suffering the lat injury.

It has now been three years since Paxton was healthy, but he was an effective starter for the Yankees during his last extended stretch of action. He made 29 appearances in 2019, tossing 150 2/3 frames with a 3.82 ERA and an excellent 29.4% strikeout rate. A trio of teams (New York, Seattle and Boston) have taken successive shots to see if he can replicate that well above-average production in the years since then, but the series of injuries has unfortunately kept that from happening.

Boston is facing a fair bit of potential turnover in the rotation this offseason. Paxton has the aforementioned dual team/player options, while Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill will all be free agents. Chris Sale is under contract through 2024 but coming off another injury-plagued season of his own. Aside from Nick Pivetta — whose 4.24 ERA this season is a career-low — there isn’t much rotation certainty moving forward. Bloom and his staff will have their work cut out for them in overhauling much of that group, regardless of whether Paxton elects to return.

James Paxton Diagnosed With Lat Strain

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Aug. 19: Cotillo tweets that the strain appears to be mild, though Paxton will undergo an MRI to confirm. He’s shut down from throwing for the time being.

Aug. 18: Red Sox lefty James Paxton began a rehab assignment today but left after facing just two batters. This was initially reported to be lat tightness by Chris Cotillo of MassLive, with manager Alex Cora later telling Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe that Paxton has a lat strain.

Cotillo adds that Paxton is seeing a doctor tomorrow to determine the severity of the issue, but there’s no question this is a significant setback for the hurler. Today was his first attempt to pitch in an organized game since undergoing Tommy John surgery in April of last year. He was still going to need some time to ramp up for a starter’s workload and will now have to push that further down the road. Even a mild lat strain usually requires a recovery period of 2-3 weeks, which means the southpaw will likely be sidelined until some time in September even in a best case scenario.

It’s another disappointing development for Paxton, one of many in recent years, following on the heels of an excellent four-year stretch of effectiveness. From 2016 to 2019, he threw at least 121 innings in each season, keeping his ERA under 4.00 in each campaign as well. He had a 22.9% strikeout rate in 2016 but got it up near 30% for the latter three years of that stretch.

Unfortunately, injuries limited him to just five starts in 2020 and then just a single outing in 2021 before landing on the injured list. Despite two essentially lost seasons, the Red Sox took a chance on him this past winter, hoping he could recover his previous form once he returned to health. The contract reflected his uncertain status, with Paxton receiving a $6MM salary here in 2022 while rehabbing. At the end of the year, Boston will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $13MM club options for 2023 and 2024, effectively a two-year, $26MM deal. Should they decline, Paxton will then get to decide on a $4MM player option for next season.

If Paxton had come through this rehab looking like the solid mid-rotation arm he had been previously, there would have been good reason for the Red Sox to consider triggering their option, especially with Nathan Eovaldi, Rich Hill and Michael Wacha slated to reach free agency this fall. There’s also the uncertainty surrounding Chris Sale, who has thrown less than 50 total innings over the past three seasons due to his own injury concerns. However, the longer Paxton remains out of action, the more the needle will move towards the club declining their end of the deal. As for Paxton’s side of things, that will also surely depend upon the severity of his injury and whether he thinks he can top $4MM in the open market this offseason.

In the short-term, the Red Sox surely would have loved for Paxton to come back and help them with the stretch drive here in 2022, but that’s looking increasingly unlikely with today’s setback. Boston is currently four games behind Toronto and Tampa Bay for the final Wild Card spot in the American League, with three other clubs in between them.

Previewing Upcoming Club Option Decisions: American League

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Yesterday, MLBTR checked in on the status of seven players who have vesting options in their contracts for the 2023 season. Each can (or already has) lock in some guaranteed money or the right to opt out of their current deal based on their workload or finish in awards voting this year.

Over the next two days, we’ll turn our attention to players with less of a say over their contractual status. A host of contracts around the league contain club options for 2023. Some of them will be easy decisions one way or the other, while there are others that’ll be more borderline calls. With teams having to make these calls a little over two months from now, it’s worth taking a look at how these players are performing in 2022.

Today, we’ll start with the American League. We’ll follow up with a look at the Senior Circuit tomorrow.

Orioles

Baltimore signed Lyles to a $7MM guarantee last winter, taking the form of a $6MM salary for 2022 and at least a $1MM buyout on next year’s option. He’s been a fine back-end starter, working to a 4.35 ERA across 130 1/3 innings. Lyles has below-average strikeout, swinging strike and ground-ball rates, but he leads the club in innings pitched and is throwing plenty of strikes. He’s also drawn strong reviews for his work in the clubhouse with the team’s younger arms. A $10MM call is borderline for a 4th/5th starter type, but the Orioles have almost nothing on the books next season and could keep him around as a veteran stabilizer.

Red Sox

  • James Paxton, SP (team must decide on consecutive $13MM options this offseason; Paxton would have $4MM player option for 2023 if club declines)

Paxton signed a convoluted deal last winter that reflected his atypical situation. A mid-rotation caliber starter when healthy, he’s made just six starts over the past three years and hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since undergoing Tommy John surgery last April. He’s making $6MM this season and could be a rotation option for a team that’ll see each of Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill hit free agency. The club will have to decide whether to trigger consecutive $13MM options (essentially a two-year, $26MM pact) this winter. If they decline, Paxton could opt in to a $4MM salary for 2023 or test free agency. How things play out largely depends on how Paxton looks down the stretch. Manager Alex Cora recently told reporters the southpaw will throw a simulated game on Friday and could soon head out on a minor league rehab appearance (link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive).

  • Hirokazu Sawamura, RP (team holds option currently valued at $3.6MM; Sawamura holds player option for 2023 currently valued at $1.8MM if club declines)

Sawamura signed a two-year, $3MM guarantee with the Red Sox over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal also included a club option for 2023 valued anywhere between $3-4MM, depending on whether Sawamura held his roster spot and based on his number of appearances. MLBTR has confirmed that escalators have already pushed the value of the club option to $3.6MM; that price escalates by an additional $100K for reaching each of 45, 50 and 60 appearances this season. (He’s presently at 43 games). If the team declines, Sawamura would have the right to trigger a player option currently valued at $1.8MM. As with the club option, the player option price escalates by $100K for reaching 45, 50 and 60 appearances. If both sides bypass their respective options, Sawamura would receive a $1MM buyout.

It seems likely that Sawamura’s team option price will fall somewhere in the $3.8MM – 3.9MM range, with a $1.8MM gap between the value of the club and player options. That’s an acceptable price to pay for a solid reliever, albeit one who’s been relied upon more in lower-leverage innings. Sawamura has a 3.14 ERA in 97 1/3 innings since coming stateside, striking out a decent 23% of opponents with a strong 51.7% ground-ball rate. He’s had issues throwing strikes consistently, but he’s an affordable power arm for a middle innings group that has been one of the team’s biggest weaknesses. That the Red Sox haven’t given Sawamura much high-leverage work in spite of their bullpen struggles is enough of a red flag to put this one in some doubt, but it seems likelier they’ll keep him around.

Yankees

Severino barely pitched between 2019-21 because of injuries, including a Tommy John recovery. He returned to the rotation this season and pitched to an impressive 3.45 ERA through 16 starts before suffering a lat injury that’ll cost him at least two months. The injury history is a real concern, but Severino still looks like an above-average starter when healthy. He’s averaged around 96 MPH on his fastball, struck out 27.2% of opposing hitters and has a tiny 7.2% walk rate. The Yankees would have to be very pessimistic about his health outlook to buy out his age-29 season, particularly since it’s only a $12.25MM decision once the buyout price is taken into account.

Rays

Kiermaier hit .228/.281/.369 over 221 plate appearances before suffering a season-ending left hip injury. It’s the latest in a long line of major health issues for the 32-year-old, and the Rays are planning to buy out the three-time Gold Glove winner. It’s possible the team tries to circle back at a lower price point, but the career-long Ray is likely to hit the open market for the first time in his career.

Blue Jays

The Jays just acquired Bass from the Marlins at the trade deadline, fortifying their bullpen with a productive middle-innings arm. Bass has an excellent 1.49 ERA through 48 1/3 innings on the year, striking out 26.2% of opponents against just a 5.9% walk rate. It’s a career-best season at age 34, but Bass has a sub-4.00 ERA for five years running. He’s an underrated bullpen piece, and the Jays are sure to bring him back for what amounts to a $2MM decision.

White Sox

This is as easy a call as any team will have to make this winter. Anderson has been one of the game’s better players four years running. He’s an elite contact hitter and baserunner, and he’s cemented himself as the Sox’s franchise shortstop. His 2022 season has been dinged by injuries, including a recent hand ligament tear that’ll cost him most of the remaining schedule. Frustrating year aside, Anderson has hit at a quality .301/.339/.395 clip this season and been an All-Star caliber performer in prior years. The White Sox are keeping him around next year, and they can do the same in 2024 via $14MM option.

Harrison signed a one-year deal in Spring Training and got off to a dreadful start. The veteran utilityman has turned things on since the calendar flipped to June, though, and he now carries a roughly league average .242/.312/.385 line through 281 plate appearances. The Sox will have to make a $4MM call this offseason on whether to bring him back for 2023. They’ll probably look for an upgrade at second base, but that’s a reasonable enough sum to dedicate to a quality infielder off the bench. Chicago already has Leury García making decent money in that role, and they might prefer to focus their finances on adding to the back of the rotation and bringing back star first baseman José Abreu.

Guardians

Shaw is a longtime member of the Cleveland organization, having spent seven of his 11 MLB seasons there. He’s a durable bullpen workhorse who’s clearly a favorite of the coaching staff and front office, but his 2022 results have not been good. The 34-year-old righty owns a 5.36 ERA across 40 1/3 innings. He’s only striking out 17.7% of opponents, walking batters at an elevated 11.6% clip and has had some home run issues. The Guardians seem likely to go in another direction this offseason.

Twins

Sanó is a longtime member of the organization who’s capable of carrying a lineup with his power at his best. His platform season has been a disaster, though, and the Twins are sure to buy out his option. The 29-year-old underwent surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his knee in May. He returned briefly but went back on the 60-day injured list last week with additional knee concerns. It’s not clear whether he’ll make it back this season. Sanó has an .083/.211/.133 line in 20 games this year after slightly above-average offensive performances in 2020-21.

Just as Sanó’s option is certain to be bought out, Gray’s is a no-brainer to exercise. Minnesota acquired the right-hander from the Reds in Spring Training, sending last year’s first-round pick Chase Petty to Cincinnati. Gray lost some time on the injured list, but he’s posted an impressive 3.19 ERA with slightly above-average peripherals through his first 16 starts in a Twins uniform. A mid-rotation starter of his caliber is a solid bargain at the cost of his option, which played into the fairly high asking price the Twins had to relinquish in the trade.

The Twins bought low on Bundy on a one-year free agent deal, hoping he’d rebound from a dismal 2021 and look more like the mid-rotation arm he resembled in 2020. That hasn’t really transpired, as the right-hander has a 5.01 ERA through 93 1/3 innings. He’s averaging a personal-low 89.2 MPH on his fastball, and while he’s throwing plenty of strikes, that lack of velocity has been reflected in both his 18.6% strikeout rate and higher than average home run rate. It seems likely the Twins will decline the option and reallocate that $10MM elsewhere, particularly with the recent acquisition of Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda’s expected return reducing the urgency to add to the rotation next season.

Astros

Acquired in a one-for-one deadline swap that sent Jake Odorizzi to Atlanta, Smith is having a generally disappointing year. He has a 4.17 ERA through 41 innings, striking out a personal-worst 24.1% of batters faced with a career-high 11.2% walk rate. Smith was an effective late-game arm as recently as a season ago and is still generating swinging strikes at a quality 14.2% clip, but the $12MM price tag seems likely to be too hefty given the mediocre strikeout and walk numbers.

Athletics

Piscotty has spent five seasons in Oakland after being acquired from the Cardinals heading into the 2018 campaign. He had an excellent first season in green and gold, but he’s been a well below-average hitter fours years running now. Going back to the start of 2019, Piscotty has a .231/.288/.380 line in just under 900 trips to the plate. He’s sure to be bought out and could be looking at minor league offers next winter.

Mariners

  • Ken Giles, RP ($9.5MM option, $500K buyout)

Seattle signed Giles to a two-year deal knowing he’d miss all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, hopes of a year two payout have been largely derailed by a finger issue that delayed his season debut and some shoulder tightness that has kept him out of action for the past month. Giles has thrown just 4 1/3 innings in a Seattle uniform, surrendering only one hit but four walks with six strikeouts. He’s averaged 94.8 MPH on his fastball, still solid but down from the 96.9 MPH range he showed during his incredible 2019 season with the Blue Jays. There’s a non-zero chance Giles returns — he’s currently on a rehab assignment in Triple-A — and dominates down the stretch to make Seattle think about the option. For the moment, though, it’s trending towards a buyout.

Rangers

Texas signed the 34-year-old Richards to a one-year guarantee over the offseason, hoping he’d build off the promise he showed in a late-season bullpen stint with the Red Sox. That hasn’t panned out, as he has a 5.35 ERA across 38 2/3 innings of relief. Richards has an excellent 52.1% ground-ball rate, but he’s not missing as many bats as one would like and he’s giving up a lot of hard contact. Texas seems likely to buy him out.

Texas signed Leclerc to an early-career extension in 2019, locking him in after a 1.56 ERA season the year before. He struggled with his control the following season, then missed virtually all of 2020-21 battling elbow issues that eventually culminated in Tommy John surgery. Leclerc returned to the mound in June but has a 4.01 ERA with a personal-low 20.4% strikeout percentage in 24 2/3 innings of generally low-leverage work. He’s still throwing hard and missing plenty of bats with his slider, so there’s a chance Texas takes an optimistic view and keeps him around. His deal also contains a $6.25MM option for 2024, so he’d be under control for multiple seasons if the Rangers are willing to give him a bit of a longer leash. This feels like it could go either way depending on how he performs down the stretch.

The Rangers signing of Calhoun to a one-year deal over the winter hasn’t panned out. He’s hitting .211/.269/.363 through 350 plate appearances and is currently on the injured list with a heel issue. It’s a second straight below-average season for the veteran outfielder, who’ll be 35 in October. The Rangers will almost assuredly decline the option and look elsewhere in right field as they aim for legitimate competitiveness in 2023.

Red Sox Notes: Paxton, Wacha, Houck, Sale

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Red Sox lefty James Paxton, who underwent Tommy John surgery last year, seems to finally be healthy enough to start ramping things up. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports that the southpaw recently faced lived hitters and is expected to throw in a simulated game this Friday. The next step after that will be for him to start a rehab assignment, which would be followed by a return to the big league club.

“He’s in such a good spot now that it’s not about the arm,” manager Alex Cora said about Paxton. “It’s about the pitch mix, the breaking ball, all that. When those guys start talking about that, you know they’re over the hump.”

Paxton’s form down the stretch will be very significant both for him and the club, regardless of where they are in the standings. Boston signed him to a unique contract over the offseason, knowing that he was rehabbing from TJS and unlikely to contribute over a full season. Paxton is making a $6MM salary this year and then the club will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $13MM options for 2023-2024 at the end of the season. If the team declines to pick up what is effectively a two-year, $26MM deal, Paxton can decide to trigger a $4MM player option for 2023 or decline it and return to free agency. Those decisions will surely depend upon what Paxton shows in the coming weeks.

The Red Sox could use some contributions from Paxton, both in this season and in the future, given the tumult of their rotation. Just about every starter in Boston’s rotation has either landed on the IL or been optioned to the minors at some point, with Nick Pivetta being the only constant. Michael Wacha has only made 13 starts this year due to a pair of IL stints, one for an intercostal strain and the other for shoulder inflammation. However, Cotillo reports that he threw 4 1/3 innings in a rehab start last night and should return to the big league club for his next outing. That should give the club a boost, as they look to finish strong in the AL Wild Card race. They are currently five games behind the Rays for the last spot.

Looking farther into the future, each of Wacha, Nathan Eovaldi and Rich Hill are slated to reach free agency this offseason, which is part of the reason why those Paxton options might seem alluring, even if he only returns for a brief period of time. The 2023 Boston rotation might also take a hit from the uncertainty surrounding Chris Sale. The lefty was once one of the most dominant arms in the game but has hardly pitched in recent years due to a cavalcade of injuries. Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2020 and limited him to nine starts last year. He began this year on the IL due to a stress fracture in rib cage, returning to throw one five-inning start before his second start was cut short after less than an inning when a comebacker broke his finger. While on the IL, he managed to get hurt again, falling off a bicycle near his home and breaking his wrist, eliminating any hopes of his return this year.

Due to all that, Sale will go into the offseason having thrown just 48 1/3 total innings over the past three seasons, which raises questions about how much the Red Sox can rely on him for the rotation next year. “We obviously need to think through what that means as far as planning out a full season with him not having carried very much of a workload the last few years,” chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom tells Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic. “If we want to play 162-plus we have to build our team to have a lot of starting pitching depth,” he added. With Hill, Wacha and Eovaldi headed to the open market and Sale and Paxton unknown wild cards at this point, there’s plenty of uncertainty hanging over Boston’s future rotation.

Turning back to the present season, the Sox placed reliever Tanner Houck on the 15-day injured list with back inflammation yesterday, Cotillo relays, which will deliver a hit to the bullpen. Houck has a 3.15 ERA on the year, with a 22.7% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate and 50.9% ground ball rate. That’s included many high-leverage spots, as Houck as eight saves and one hold on the year. He’ll join Tyler Danish, Matt Strahm and Josh Taylor among Boston relievers currently on the injured list. The bullpen is so banged up that Cora told reporters, including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, that Hill might see some action out of the ’pen, despite having just started yesterday’s game.

Red Sox Notes: Winckowski, Sale, Paxton

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Tthe Red Sox are amidst a stretch of ten games in nine days, thanks to a doubleheader against the Orioles on Saturday. That could necessitate the club using a spot starter, with manager Alex Cora suggesting Josh Winckowski as a possible candidate, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.

The right-hander was a 15th round selection of the Blue Jays in 2016, but went to the Mets as part of the Steven Matz trade, about two weeks before the Mets sent him to Boston in the three-team Andrew Benintendi deal. Last year, his first in the Red Sox organization, he split his time between Double-A and Triple-A, throwing 112 total innings with a 3.94 ERA, 21.3% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate, earning himself a spot on the 40-man roster.

This year, the 23-year-old seems to have taken things forward a notch over his first seven starts and 31 2/3 innings for Triple-A Worcester. His ERA is at 3.13 with a 27.9% strikeout rate, 4.9% walk rate and 57% grounder rate. He last started for the WooSox Sunday, which would line up as the team’s 27th man for Saturday’s doubleheader on five days’ rest.

Further down the road, the rotation should get a boost from the return of Chris Sale, who threw a 15-pitch bullpen session today. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes that Sale is scheduled for another bullpen on Friday and is likely to throw another next week. Cora suggested that Sale could be in line to throw live batting practice following next week’s session if all goes well. That’d mark his first time throwing to hitters since he was diagnosed with a stress fracture in his rib cage in March.

There’s still a long road ahead before Sale can contribute to the big league team, though it’s encouraging that he’s at least making progress. The lefty threw 42 2/3 innings last year in his return from Tommy John surgery and was effective, though not quite at the ace level of previous years. His 3.16 ERA was over a run higher than his 2018 mark, with his 28.4% strikeout rate coming in about 10 points below the same number from three years earlier.

Boston is also awaiting the season debut of James Paxton, who is rehabbing from last April’s Tommy John surgery. The southpaw is a bit behind Sale in his recovery after being sidelined by continued elbow soreness this month, but he tells Rob Bradford of WEEI (audio link) he’s feeling better and has again started throwing. Paxton suggested he’s looking to gradually progress from 60 to 120 feet during his work from flat ground before he could begin throwing bullpen sessions of his own.

The 33-year-old Paxton signed a convoluted free agent deal over the offseason. He’s making $6MM this year, and the Sox will have to decide whether to trigger matching $13MM options for 2023-24 at the end of the season. If the team declines their end, Paxton can exercise a $4MM player option for 2023 only or test free agency. How long Paxton’s stay in Boston lasts will certainly be determined by his progress in his ongoing recovery and his form whenever he makes his return.

Red Sox Notes: Martinez, Bogaerts, Vazquez, Sale, Paxton

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J.D. Martinez’s five-year, $110MM deal with the Red Sox is up at season’s end, and the slugger again made clear this weekend that he’d love to return (link via Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe). “Would I love to stay here?” Martinez asked rhetorically. “Yeah. I’ve expressed that to ownership.” Martinez added that he told the Sox he was “really open” to an extension as far back as the 2019-20 offseason. However, he also acknowledged that, as far as contract talks are concerned, “nothing has really happened since I got here.” Martinez further noted that if a Boston reunion isn’t in the cards, he’s at least excited to have a wider range of potential suitors thanks to the advent of the universal designated hitter.

While many nine-figure free agent deals prove regrettable by the time they draw to a close, Martinez has been a mostly sound investment for the Sox. Although he struggled in the shortened 2020 season, he boasts an overall .298/.369/.548 batting line with 118 home runs through 2296 plate appearances since signing his deal. That includes a huge .321/.370/.541 line (164 wRC+) to begin the 2022 campaign. Martinez will turn 35 in August, but his bat isn’t showing many signs of slowing down even as he enters his mid-30s. Boston has about $92.5MM in guaranteed money on the books in 2023, but $20MM of that is allocated to Xander Bogaerts, who is all but a lock to exercise an opt-out in his contract (barring an extension).

More out of Boston…

  • While Bogaerts is almost certainly ticketed for the open market at the end of the season, the star shortstop left open the possibility of in-season extension talks over the weekend. His agent Scott Boras downplayed those chances, telling Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe (Twitter link) that extension talks with the Sox won’t take place during the regular season. Whether behind-the-scenes discussions take place or not, it has never seemed likely the sides will come to an agreement after they were extremely far apart in Spring Training. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported last month that Boston had offered an additional one year and $30MM to convince Bogaerts to forego his opt-out possibility. That’s well shy of the three-time All-Star’s likely market value, and Bogaerts implied over the weekend the team would have to significantly raise their offer were they to try to reignite talks. “I don’t know how this would work,” he said.”But if they talk to Scott behind closed doors and it’s something that’s fair, he can come to me. We’ll see how that goes.
  • The Red Sox “were quietly shopping” Christian Vazquez over the winter but (obviously) never lined up with a potential trade partner, writes Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic in her latest mailbag column. Boston exercised a $7MM club option on the 32-year-old catcher at the end of the 2021 season but was also reported to be heavily in the mix for Pirates catcher Jacob Stallings over the winter — before he was ultimately instead traded to Miami. Vazquez slugged 23 homers in the “juiced ball” season in 2019 and had a stronger 2020 campaign (on a rate basis). However, he’s struggled to a .252/.302/.344 output in 583 subsequent plate appearances (2022 included). McCaffrey suggests that if the Sox don’t right the ship, Vazquez could again be a trade candidate this summer, which would leave prospect Connor Wong and veteran Kevin Plawecki as the team’s primary catchers. Of course, Plawecki himself is a free agent at season’s end and could change hands in such a scenario — assuming he can bounce back from the dreadful .139/.179/.167 slash he’s posted through his first 40 plate appearances.
  • Injured Sox ace Chris Sale, who is on the 60-day IL with a stress fracture in his rib cage, has been cleared to begin throwing and is playing catch, tweets Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. At last check, Sale wasn’t throwing and was dealing with a non-baseball, non-Covid related medical issue, but it seems he’s put that past him and is officially progressing toward a return to the mound. The seven-time All-Star has thrown just 42 2/3 innings since the conclusion of the 2019 season, primarily due to Tommy John surgery. Speier also notes that fellow southpaw James Paxton is still receiving treatment and has yet to begin throwing as he works back from 2021 Tommy John surgery. The Sox announced earlier this month that Paxton was dealing with continued soreness in his elbow.
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