The Padres are having a disappointing season, having stayed outside the postseason picture for much of the time. Nonetheless, there have been several signs to suggest they have no intention of selling before the upcoming deadline. Earlier this month, owner Peter Seidler said the club wasn’t “going to reverse course” and more recent reporting said that suitors for rental lefties Blake Snell and Josh Hader were being turned away. Today, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that several rival clubs think the Padres will pivot and sell both of those southpaws. That potentially indicates a new approach, though Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that the club had interest in Lucas Giolito before he was traded to the Angels, indicating the Friars still view themselves as buyers.
Whether the Padres change their mind and decide to sell or not will be a fascinating element to watch between now and the August 1 deadline. Their 49-54 record has them 6.5 games out of a playoff spot, with them needing to leapfrog at least four teams to get into postseason position. FanGraphs gives them a 28.2% chance of doing so, though Baseball Prospectus is far more bullish at 56%.
The club’s decision makers have seemingly held firm in their belief in the squad, though the move to the seller lane is surely tempting. The expanded playoffs and some weak divisions have seemingly created a seller’s market, with those clubs that have pieces to move in a position to do well. The White Sox seemed to have secured themselves a strong return for Giolito and Reynaldo López, with Edgar Quero and Ky Bush being previously considered two of the Angels’ top prospects. The Cubs are still deciding on their trade deadline plan, as their recent hot streak could lead to Cody Bellinger and Marcus Stroman coming off the table, giving further leverage to those who are selling.
If the Padres were to make Snell and Hader available, they could surely bring in quite a haul for their farm system, which could help them reload for the 2024 campaign. Snell is a former Cy Young winner and he’s having an excellent season, with a 2.61 ERA through 21 starts. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the league for a while now and has a miniscule 0.95 ERA this year. Both are impending free agents, making them logical trade chips on a selling team.
Though considering selling is likely a tough pill to swallow for the Padres, given how much they’ve already committed to this year’s club. They have run up the highest payroll in franchise history, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Their $277MM luxury tax calculation from Roster Resource puts them over the $273MM third line of penalization, lining them up to see their top 2024 draft pick pushed back by 10 spots.
They have already put a lot on the line and maybe they don’t want to sink their chances further by trading pieces like Hader and Snell. They could hold on and hope for a late surge, with still a chance to recoup a draft pick when each is given and inevitably declines a qualifying offer. But even that consolation prize will be lessened by their spending, since luxury tax payors have their compensation picks moved from just before the third round to just after the fourth.
If the Padres were to make either Snell or Hader or both available, they would undoubtedly have massive interest around the league. Just about every contender can use some more pitching and those two are both elite. Doing so could have the added bonus of allowing the Padres to dip below the third CBT tier and prevent next year’s top draft pick from moving. However, they may not have much appetite for that, despite their precarious position. Perhaps some more poor results in the coming days will change the calculus, though that remains to be seen. The Padres are off today but host the Rangers for three starting tomorrow before heading to Colorado on Monday. The trade deadline is Tuesday, August 1.
So you’re telling me these playoff projections disagree?
“the club had interest in Lucas Giolito before he was traded to the Angels”
Utterly insane.
Cubs should offer Bellinger for Snell. Padres can try to extend Belli and Cubs try to extend Snell.
That’s not happening at all.
I thought Angels should trade Ohtani for Corbin Burnes. Anaheim would have Burnes through 2024. Brewers cannot afford to extend both Burnes and Woodruff so they would make their best play this year. Imagine Brewers with Ohtani and Soto, but giving up Burnes, Frelick, Mitchell and Gasser. But yes these are should happens not will happens.
@Manny- I truly couldn’t imagine the Brewers partying with Burnes and all those prospects, without a extension for Ohtani lst, and that’s not something he’s willing to do. (Sign an extension) My guess is the Dodgers offer Ohtani $550 million for 10 years in the off-season and he takes it as a free agent.
They’re not even should happens. Burnes and Woodruff are the reason the Brewers are in contention at all. And that Soto package you suggested is atrocious.
My presumption is that the Brewers would not extend either Ohtani or Soto.
If they cannot afford to keep both Burnes and Woodruff then now is the season to go all in. Of course, if they can afford to extend both then I think differently.
Trading them isn’t going all in. When has a team EVER traded someone comparable to Burnes or Woodruff in-season and won the WS that year?
When has a team had the chance to get an Ohtani in return?
The Brewers would trade prospects and just prospects for Ohtani.
Pedro Guerrero for John Tudor
It’s pretty obvious Moreno isn’t trading Ohtani
The Angels won again today with Shohei pitching. They still have a chance. GO GIO!!
“It’s pretty obvious Moreno isn’t trading Ohtani”
That’s not true. They’d get more/better prospects for Ohtani than they gave up for Gio and Lopez and those 2 would be easier to extend than Ohtani. Especially So-Cal native Lucas Giolito.
That you had to go all the way back to 1988 to find one example (who was worth less than 1 WAR for the Dodgers that year before they traded him) just proves my point.
Throw in Cronenworth in the deal too…..he’s been awful, and one of the main reasons the Padres stink.
Maybe they could trade for a few more shortstops?
Acuna, Walcott, Sagesse, Josh Smith, and E Duran are all shortstops in one way or another. Maybe a few of them could be dealt. Jk lol
I could understand keeping Soto for a shot to win a World Series in 2024, but definitely don’t get keeping Snell and Hader. Trade them for young prospects now, and try to give Soto that extension for $500 million or so in the off-season.
Best starter and reliever on the trade market in a year where it’s a sellers market. After seeing the return for Giolito I’d be selling to cut costs and fill some needs. They could still make a run even if they sold, as long as they grabbed the right pieces in return
I’d be trading if I were them as well. To me though the problem with using the Giolito trade is, it feels like an overlay for rentals and more like just a desperate move by the Angels since they know they need huge upgrades.
I feel Giolito ends up leaving the Angels as a free agent, and signs with the Dodgers(if they don’t sign Ohtani) or the Padres in the off-season. The Padres will need a replacement for Snell if they trade him by Tuesday.
Snell is FA so they will need a replacement either way. I’d say based on how much he likes SD and that clubhouse (from watching his interviews and comments) there is a very good chance he wants to sign in SD in off-season.
The only way San Diego -and for that matter LAA – are going to the playoffs is if they buy a ticket like everyone else. Ahahahaha!
It is time to sell. This team is quite talented but having followed them throughout the year, there isn’t much chemistry or a proven leader. This hurts to have typed but it is what it is…
Send them to your parent club up the road, we could use them
I think Padres and Rangers will make for a good trade this weekend.
Snell, Hader, and Soto???
How’s this for unusual stats this far into the season. Blake Snell is leading the league in ERA and walks.
It’s strange, but just goes to show how poorly hitters are doing against him when they do swing. As long as you don’t walk runners in, run prevention is definitely helped by opponents not even hitting .200 against you.
Yep. A poor man’s Nolan Ryan
4th place in the NL West. I don’t see this team leapfrogging the D Backs and Giants, much less the other contenders that stand in the way of a berth.
A catcher that can’t hit for power so the walks will eventually go away when he gets attacked at higher levels, and a 7th/8th inning reliever is all the return for Giolito/Lopez? Prospects are worthless. “Strong return.” They should hang on to everyone and go for it. Get people to improve 1B/CF/DH production and some bullpen help. They have a positive run differential.
This would be a perfect match for the Orioles.
If Nightengale said it, you know its 100% wrong.
Trade Snell and Hader then re-sign them as free agents in the offseason. Next question.
Rough Odor! What’s that Snell? Dodgers are great, Padres are just player Haders.
I say one of these guys gets traded. Just one though.
It should be all or nothing at all. I think they need to stay the course, since they have committed so much to it. But they could trade both and simply re-sign them in the off-season.
SDP fans should be hoping for a 5-0 or 0-5 for the next five days.
@JoeBrady. As a Padres fan that is EXACTLY what I am hoping for. And that the Phillies, Reds and Diamondbacks all do the opposite of what the Padres do.
I’d be hoping for an 0-5. If they go 5-0 and buy or stand pat, I think it’s bad for their long term outlook. I just don’t see this years Padres team getting in or doing much if they do. (Yes, I know anything can happen, but counting on extremally unlikely outcomes as your plan isn’t much of a plan.)
They’d do well to trade these guys and see if they can’t get some depth on the cheap to fill in holes on the MLB roster over the next couple years. Unless ownership plans to go full mets, they have a decent amount of holes to fill and not a ton of $ to do it, even after you account for the money coming off the books.
Why? What’s the point in trading just one? Are they trying to win now or are they trying to retool for 2024 and beyond?
SD will win 2 of 3 from Tex and sweep Col. They will then kid themselves into a playoff fantasy . Preller should have been fired after the medical record fraud.
Oh you mean the medical record fraud where the Marlins traded them an injured Chris Paddack for a non-injured Fernando Rodney and an injured Carter Capps for a non-injured Andrew Cashner and where the Red Sox traded them an injured Anderson Espinoza for a non-injured Drew Pomeranz?
Medical record fraud = training staff didn’t report use of Advil and/or Tylenol.
Don’t strain an arm beating that muffled drum, jmi!
The Medical record fraud cost Preller a suspension without pay and the team an undisclosed fine. That sounds serious to me. SD fans real penalty is that they are still stuck with a clueless Preller.
With you on everything but Soto. Their 2024 season is sunk without Soto. They can’t trade him unless they get back CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, James Wood, Bobby Barrels and Jarlin Susana. Or get back something outrageous like Ronald Acuña Jr.
We’re seeing wreckage in the water, Cap’n, and we found a life ring that had SS Mets printed on it.
Cap’n: “FULL SPEED AHEAD!!!”
You are completely disconnected from reality. No further reason to read your posts.
Padres are 49-53
Just dropped 2 of 3 to the Pirates
10 games back in the NL West
6.5 back in wild card standings
Sounds like outinleftfield is WAY out in left field.
And apparently got so upset about how things are they mute another user who says padres should be sellers not buyers lol. Which I assume “No further reason to read your posts” means. Dude. Get a grip. It’s just a game. People are allowed to have different opinions on what your favorite team should do.
And uses multiple accounts to “agree” with himself.
Out – I’ve been saying this about Math ever since I read his first post. Haven’t read anything to change my mind. Tired of telling him wrong he is. Thanks for picking up the torch!
You’re clearly replying to your own post under a different account left field. How many accounts do you have man?
Outinleftfield
Pads Fan
Koamalu or whatever it was
Longtimecoming
Forgot BaseballisLife, websoulsurfer and PLTuna.
Just to clear your head – this is my only account.
I think baseballislife is where he goes to post his really stupid comments, which is saying something…
Padres wont sell front office is on the line for bringing all these players in on expanding payroll for results. They will ride this titanic til the end.
Outinleftfield is Pads Fans
By the way, the Padres and Dodgers are playing a series in Korea next March. The Padres probably aren’t going to trade Kim until after that unless they get offered something outrageous.
No surprise that they wouldn’t trade them. Even if the Padres miss the postseason this year, they want to make it next year. Any return would have to be players that can make an impact in 24. Contenders would be targeting Snell and Hader and would be unlikely to give up pieces that will help in 24. They would be more likely to give up young talent.
There are exceptions like the off-season trade between MIN and MIA where they traded impact players. At least the players didn’t have much of a uniform change 🙂
Snell leads the NL in ERA, Hader is near the tops in saves. Both of them would get back something decent, at the very least.
They could target major league ready prospects in the Snell and Hader trades or just trade them for lower level prospects with more future value and then come the offseason flip those higher FV prospects for more immediate help at the ML level.
These guys are free agents. They aren’t helping 24 unless you resign them which you can did even if you trade them.
They will get at least 2 top 100 prospects for these two guys. They can be guys that play next year, or they can be guys they can trade for guys who play next year. Plus the money they save they can sign guys to replace them. These guys will be getting paid bank as free agents .
Nailed it.
SNELLZILLA STAYS ON WEST COAST NEXT YEAR. Angels or Hometown Mariners or Giants. Last Roadtrip expressed Dislike of Humidity Big Time.
Gut tells me he’s a Padre again, with or without a trade this year. We shall see!
“So you’re saying there’s a chance…”
Old timer – yeah I heard the interview and he was pretty clear he didn’t care for the east coast trip. That could be a good sign for staying in SD where he really seems happy.
Seattle would likely be on his radar but he has also made comments about the lack of sunshine there! Not sure what they would pay since they have a fair core SP staff.
West coast teams for sure are the favorites.
Am I the only one viewing Hader as a golden parachute to get padres out of a bad salary commitment, like Carpenter? A team over performing and with cap space is more willing to eat money, then give up future stars, right?
Carp isn’t that expensive. They can eat his 6m, so no you don’t trade these guys for to move Carps contract.
I’m not saying they’d only off Carpenter, but that they can put him in a deal and expect less on the return side. Could be an easier ask. And that 6mil off the books is 6mil they could put towards an effective bench, and get em close to under that teir 3 penalty.
I think the up and coming contenders are willing to part with B+ prospects much quicker than A+ prospects, and moving Carp is how you get there.
I’d say they will never do that
Snell and Hader are exactly the 2 guys the orioles need.
Gotta give to get… so whatcha giving?
I’ll take 4 of those top 100 and they can keep the top 2.
For two rentals? You can keep them and enjoy the comp picks, in that case. Two top 100s (#s 7 & 8) + a couple guys in the realm of Stowers/Beavers/Prieto/Fabian.
It’s not going to be two back in 100 guys. Gio got better than that and his isn’t close to these guys.
No he didn’t
The Padres could solve some of their depth issues by trading Snell,Hader, and Lugo. The Padres wasted the talent of these players because of depth issues, inconsistent offense, and a weak bullpen. What good is Hader when the bullpen routinely blows the lead before getting him the ball. The trade deadline provides the Padres with an opportunity to patch the holes in sinking ship.
So you’re telling me there’s a chance