The Padres are having a disappointing season, having stayed outside the postseason picture for much of the time. Nonetheless, there have been several signs to suggest they have no intention of selling before the upcoming deadline. Earlier this month, owner Peter Seidler said the club wasn’t “going to reverse course” and more recent reporting said that suitors for rental lefties Blake Snell and Josh Hader were being turned away. Today, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that several rival clubs think the Padres will pivot and sell both of those southpaws. That potentially indicates a new approach, though Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports that the club had interest in Lucas Giolito before he was traded to the Angels, indicating the Friars still view themselves as buyers.
Whether the Padres change their mind and decide to sell or not will be a fascinating element to watch between now and the August 1 deadline. Their 49-54 record has them 6.5 games out of a playoff spot, with them needing to leapfrog at least four teams to get into postseason position. FanGraphs gives them a 28.2% chance of doing so, though Baseball Prospectus is far more bullish at 56%.
The club’s decision makers have seemingly held firm in their belief in the squad, though the move to the seller lane is surely tempting. The expanded playoffs and some weak divisions have seemingly created a seller’s market, with those clubs that have pieces to move in a position to do well. The White Sox seemed to have secured themselves a strong return for Giolito and Reynaldo López, with Edgar Quero and Ky Bush being previously considered two of the Angels’ top prospects. The Cubs are still deciding on their trade deadline plan, as their recent hot streak could lead to Cody Bellinger and Marcus Stroman coming off the table, giving further leverage to those who are selling.
If the Padres were to make Snell and Hader available, they could surely bring in quite a haul for their farm system, which could help them reload for the 2024 campaign. Snell is a former Cy Young winner and he’s having an excellent season, with a 2.61 ERA through 21 starts. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the league for a while now and has a miniscule 0.95 ERA this year. Both are impending free agents, making them logical trade chips on a selling team.
Though considering selling is likely a tough pill to swallow for the Padres, given how much they’ve already committed to this year’s club. They have run up the highest payroll in franchise history, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Their $277MM luxury tax calculation from Roster Resource puts them over the $273MM third line of penalization, lining them up to see their top 2024 draft pick pushed back by 10 spots.
They have already put a lot on the line and maybe they don’t want to sink their chances further by trading pieces like Hader and Snell. They could hold on and hope for a late surge, with still a chance to recoup a draft pick when each is given and inevitably declines a qualifying offer. But even that consolation prize will be lessened by their spending, since luxury tax payors have their compensation picks moved from just before the third round to just after the fourth.
If the Padres were to make either Snell or Hader or both available, they would undoubtedly have massive interest around the league. Just about every contender can use some more pitching and those two are both elite. Doing so could have the added bonus of allowing the Padres to dip below the third CBT tier and prevent next year’s top draft pick from moving. However, they may not have much appetite for that, despite their precarious position. Perhaps some more poor results in the coming days will change the calculus, though that remains to be seen. The Padres are off today but host the Rangers for three starting tomorrow before heading to Colorado on Monday. The trade deadline is Tuesday, August 1.
So you’re telling me these playoff projections disagree?
“the club had interest in Lucas Giolito before he was traded to the Angels”
Utterly insane.
Why if the Friars are still trying to go for it? Smh
Because they’re a below .500 team that hasn’t really shown any signs of life and would have to put up a pretty ridiculous winning percentage the rest of the way to leapfrog everyone else in front of them for a playoff spot.
Imagine the media still thinking the Padres have a better shot of making the playoffs than the Angels
As bad as the Pads and Mets are doing after all the money they spent, I would sit tight with the players they have.
Snell and Hader are having excellent seasons. Why not re-sign them since money is no problem for the team. If the fans are patient, I think both teams are using this season – even though that wasn’t Cohen’s or Preller’s plan – to gel together. You look at the rosters and it’s hard to believe they won’t come back strong next season.
@avenger65 They can still re-sign Snell and Hader if they do trade them! Would you rather have Snell, Hader and prospects or just Snell and Hader!?
But the way these teams were built it’s legit no excuse for it …if spending 500 million doesn’t get u into the playoffs and beyond than that’s a problem regardless if they gel together or not ..doesn’t work like that in baseball no more didn’t they learn their lessons from the Yankees ??
As badly as they are doing, why would you think returning the same roster next year would solve the problem? They need to change their strategy.
They could get several prospects in exchange for Snell who is notoriously inconsistent. Those prospects would be a lot cheaper than Snell. He’s on a hot streak now and they could get max value for him. They could even trade Snell now and re-sign him in the off-season.
I would keep Hader as he is much more consistent.
I think that Snell wants to sign with his hometown Seattle Mariners. Hader is going to get paid.
The really insane part is that they were showing interest in a starting pitcher. Starting pitching has quite literally been the only good thing about this team.
Everything past the first 4-5 spots in that lineup are automatic outs. And their bullpen besides Hader has not been very good lately.
But sure AJ, go find you a starting pitcher. What an idiot.
Had to look it up, but here is the most common 1st 5 in the Padres lineup;
Kim – 127 OPS+
Tatis Jr. – 131 OPS+
Soto – 158 OPS+ Third best in baseball
Machado – 118 OPS+
Bogaerts – 111 OPS+
Not automatic outs. In fact, it’s one of the top 1-4 in the game.
But go on calling other people stupid.
@ outinleftfield
I think the OP was referring to evertone else in that lineup besides those first five. Cronenworth and Grisham are right at the Mendoza line. DH slot has been even worse than that. Gary Sanchez has shown some pop, but he hits for a low average and will likely cool off.
He changed his post after my response.
Machado has been the best player and a top 10 hitter in baseball the past month. The guy has an 1.142 OPS and an insane 11 home runs all while sporting a .228 BABip that says he should have had even better numbers.
So please, leave baseball talk to those that actually understand it. .
Dude…”Everything *past* the first 4-5 spots”. Meaning hitters 6,7,8 & 9.
You just emphasized what he had already stated to be true and then acted condescending about it…
Actually everyone with half a brain cell left on this site knows that you are “Pads Fans” pretending to be an Angels fan.
Cmon, man. What they need is another shortstop!
As flamingbagofpoop pointed out, 99socalfrc said that everything PAST the first 4-5 spots in the Padres’ lineup are automatic outs. So how are the offensive stats for everyone other than the dudes you mentioned?
He changed his post after my response. Its not what it said originally
Dude, no offense, I don’t know you, nor do I care that you’re an Angel’s season ticket holder. But to think that anyone that doesn’t keep up with your homerism is unintelligent, e.g. lacking brain cells, is just…unintelligent.
@outinleftfield
That is not what was said. Re-read.
They said the bottom of the lineup
I like how outinleftfield hasn’t responded since everyone pointed out the OP was talking about the bottom 4-5 of the Padres lineup. This site has a notification bell now so he can’t pretend he didn’t see those comments.
It is what was said. He edited his original comment after my response.
You can’t see followup comments unless you refresh the page and once you refresh the page you lose the ability to edit your comment.
Cubs should offer Bellinger for Snell. Padres can try to extend Belli and Cubs try to extend Snell.
That’s not happening at all.
I thought Angels should trade Ohtani for Corbin Burnes. Anaheim would have Burnes through 2024. Brewers cannot afford to extend both Burnes and Woodruff so they would make their best play this year. Imagine Brewers with Ohtani and Soto, but giving up Burnes, Frelick, Mitchell and Gasser. But yes these are should happens not will happens.
@Manny- I truly couldn’t imagine the Brewers partying with Burnes and all those prospects, without a extension for Ohtani lst, and that’s not something he’s willing to do. (Sign an extension) My guess is the Dodgers offer Ohtani $550 million for 10 years in the off-season and he takes it as a free agent.
They’re not even should happens. Burnes and Woodruff are the reason the Brewers are in contention at all. And that Soto package you suggested is atrocious.
My presumption is that the Brewers would not extend either Ohtani or Soto.
If they cannot afford to keep both Burnes and Woodruff then now is the season to go all in. Of course, if they can afford to extend both then I think differently.
Trading them isn’t going all in. When has a team EVER traded someone comparable to Burnes or Woodruff in-season and won the WS that year?
When has a team had the chance to get an Ohtani in return?
The Brewers would trade prospects and just prospects for Ohtani.
Pedro Guerrero for John Tudor
It’s pretty obvious Moreno isn’t trading Ohtani
The Angels won again today with Shohei pitching. They still have a chance. GO GIO!!
“It’s pretty obvious Moreno isn’t trading Ohtani”
That’s not true. They’d get more/better prospects for Ohtani than they gave up for Gio and Lopez and those 2 would be easier to extend than Ohtani. Especially So-Cal native Lucas Giolito.
That you had to go all the way back to 1988 to find one example (who was worth less than 1 WAR for the Dodgers that year before they traded him) just proves my point.
Throw in Cronenworth in the deal too…..he’s been awful, and one of the main reasons the Padres stink.
Maybe they could trade for a few more shortstops?
Acuna, Walcott, Sagesse, Josh Smith, and E Duran are all shortstops in one way or another. Maybe a few of them could be dealt. Jk lol
I could understand keeping Soto for a shot to win a World Series in 2024, but definitely don’t get keeping Snell and Hader. Trade them for young prospects now, and try to give Soto that extension for $500 million or so in the off-season.
Trade Soto to Brewers for Frelick, Mitchell and Gasser. Extend Snell. Trade Hader to Atlanta for Shuster.
Or trade Snell for Bellinger and extend Belli. Still trade Hader to Atlanta for Shuster, Dodd or Smith-Shawver.
Brewers have said they’re not going to sell off loads of young talent. No way they’re trading off Frelick, Gasser and Mitchell in one trade. Frelick likely isn’t going anywhere. Gasser unlikely as well. Mitchell may be available, but he’s also hurt right now, so he’s not likely to be dealt. 0% chance the Brewers trade for Soto. Not likely they’re even having a serious discussion about it.
Why would they trade Snell for Bellinger when they can sign Bellinger in the offseason and keep Snell (or trade him for something else)? How does that make any sense at all?
Because neither team wants to flat out admit that it is time to throw in the towel. Padres have a high enough payroll they are not going to sign Snell but they need a center fielder.
Using your logic Harambe, Cubs can also sign both Snell and Bellinger in the off-season. Neither team will sign both.
Yeah. They can do that if they are willing to pony up the cash. Nothing stopping them. The point is there is no reason to trade Snell for another rental. If the Padres want Bellinger they can sign him without trading for him first. What exactly do you think is going to happen if they trade for him? Him magically falling in love with the city and organization in 2 months while they aren’t contending and signing there for half of what the market offers him? How likely really is that? And is it likely enough to part with the probable NL Cy Young winner over it?
They could wait for Bellinger because he’s not staying with the cubs. He just used them to show a contender he can still play. Silly to try to get him in a trade.
Why would the Padres trade Hader for a struggling non-prospect? Everything I have read has said that he will net a top 100, MLB ready, prospect and at least one more player.
> trade Hader to Atlanta for
> Shuster, Dodd or Smith-Shawver.
I’d do that trade. I think you can get a lot more for Hader.
You lost me at trading Snell for Belli – seriously dude what are you smoking? A few months of resurgence doesn’t offset the past 2-3 years of suck. Snell gets a top 50 young, cheap controllable player and another back of 100 or honorable mention based on the Giolito trade return.
Why would they trade Snell for Belli? They need pitching and already have a pretty good CF. Just for the quick math, If Belli is worth bWAR 2.7 and Grisham is worth 1.5, that’s a net of 1.2. So for two months, you can expect an improvement of 0.6. I see no way that offsets the loss of Snell, who has the best ERA in baseball.
Actually friars should trade Snell Hader and Preller to Atlanta for AA and a recycle can.
Ok, I’ll concede that. My point is more that the Cubs need an off-season acquisition like Snell and the Padres need an off-season acquisition like Bellinger. The Cubs should have lots of money to spend and the Padres should be closer to being tapped out. In the interim I guess both should be traded for prospects to competing teams.
Trading for a guy so you can try to extend him is stupid on all counts.
I don’t know about that Captain. I sort of feel like Soto is just going to be a very expensive DH soon. He’s not good defensively and adds no value on the basepaths. He walks a lot and I get that has value; but 400M or whatever? I don’t know. Not for me.
Coop in a state of shock over your comments, so you don’t think Soto is in the top 5 of best players in the game right now? You don’t think someone would give him $500 mill if he was on the open market now. I would take him in leftfield at Yankee Stadium in a heartbeat. I can’t imagine how much damage he could do there with his bat. I know his defense isn’t that great. Lmk, hope all is well.
Yep, all is good. No, I understand what you’re saying, but hear me out. He’s still very young, but that means it’s likely he’s going to get 12 or more years in his free agent deal. Plus, teams will want to spread out the salary across extra years for luxury tax purposes. If he’s lousy defensively now and slow, how is he going to be years from now. Look, don’t get me wrong – I’d love to have him at Wrigley Field, no doubt. I’m just wondering if you’re paying too much for a guy who is not a well-rounded player.
Ok Coop I hear you, but isn’t a take it or leave it(no trade if not accepted) extension worth it for 12 years, $480 million dollar contract worth it($40million annually) You could front load or back load the deal for tax purposes, or spread out the deal like your saying because of the luxury tax penalties. I think if Soto would take this extension right now it’s a total no brainer for any team out there. Lmk and thnx. Good talk.
Coop let me know your stance on the Cubies, my favorite NL team in baseball. Are we going for it or no? Like the Yankees thinking we’re far from winning a WS. I’d be totally stoked to see a Cub-Yankee World Series, but totally cool about it. Lol. I have a Yankee package for Cody Bellinger if he were to become available. Everson Pereira a outfielder(who can play all 3 outfield positions) or Trey Sweeney(a shortstop by trade) Will Warren (a future closer or set up man) Randy Vasquez(starter) and Casey Hampton(a younger pitcher) in the minors with great stuff. Lmk and thnx.
I just don’t get all the fascination with Soto. He’s a rhinestone, not a gem.
Soto is still a top 50 player in MLB. He will easily get eight years 200 million with opt-outs. He is an acceptable defender as a corner outfielder. He gets on base. He is still very young. Did he walk away from twice as much, sure, but he is still very good.
#12 in baseball in WAR. #3 hitter. Soto will get $400+ million. Even at $30 million AAV over 14 years that is $420 million and he will get closer to $36 million.
No way Soto is the number 3 hitter in baseball, he is clearly behind Acuna Freeman Betts Tatis and Ohtani also Judge and Harper if they were healthy. I think he deserves closer to 200 million than 400 million but it just takes one owner for you to be right.
#3 in OPS+. It’s not a question. He WILL get $400 plus million. That also is not in question. Even at $30 million AAV, something he will exceed by $5-6 million, he will get a long term deal in excess of $400 million.
14 years at $35-36 million. You do the math.
Outinleftfield
Ok, but do you concede that Soto is not as good at the moment as Acuna Freeman Betts Tatis and Ohtani, and also Judge and Harper if they were healthy?
@MannyBeingMVP Neither you nor I have any idea how well Judge or Harper would or wouldn’t play if they were healthy right now. The fact of the matter is they’re not.
You know, stats just aren’t good enough for some people. Never ceases to amaze me how someone can totally ignore actual stats in the player assessment process in baseball.
What has he done that you don’t like?
How do you label a player like Trout? Oh, and what do you use to justify your assessment of Trout?
Look at OPS or WAR. He is great, but certainly not a top 5 or 10 player in baseball.
24 years old. Top 3 hitter in the game this season. Yeah, a rhinestone. Right. Uh, huh. Sure.
Giving Soto $500m while the 6-9 hitters on this team hit below .200 is so on brand for the Padres.
Best starter and reliever on the trade market in a year where it’s a sellers market. After seeing the return for Giolito I’d be selling to cut costs and fill some needs. They could still make a run even if they sold, as long as they grabbed the right pieces in return
I’d be trading if I were them as well. To me though the problem with using the Giolito trade is, it feels like an overlay for rentals and more like just a desperate move by the Angels since they know they need huge upgrades.
I feel Giolito ends up leaving the Angels as a free agent, and signs with the Dodgers(if they don’t sign Ohtani) or the Padres in the off-season. The Padres will need a replacement for Snell if they trade him by Tuesday.
Snell is FA so they will need a replacement either way. I’d say based on how much he likes SD and that clubhouse (from watching his interviews and comments) there is a very good chance he wants to sign in SD in off-season.
The only way San Diego -and for that matter LAA – are going to the playoffs is if they buy a ticket like everyone else. Ahahahaha!
It is time to sell. This team is quite talented but having followed them throughout the year, there isn’t much chemistry or a proven leader. This hurts to have typed but it is what it is…
Send them to your parent club up the road, we could use them
I think Padres and Rangers will make for a good trade this weekend.
Snell, Hader, and Soto???
How’s this for unusual stats this far into the season. Blake Snell is leading the league in ERA and walks.
It’s strange, but just goes to show how poorly hitters are doing against him when they do swing. As long as you don’t walk runners in, run prevention is definitely helped by opponents not even hitting .200 against you.
Yep. A poor man’s Nolan Ryan
4th place in the NL West. I don’t see this team leapfrogging the D Backs and Giants, much less the other contenders that stand in the way of a berth.
A catcher that can’t hit for power so the walks will eventually go away when he gets attacked at higher levels, and a 7th/8th inning reliever is all the return for Giolito/Lopez? Prospects are worthless. “Strong return.” They should hang on to everyone and go for it. Get people to improve 1B/CF/DH production and some bullpen help. They have a positive run differential.
This would be a perfect match for the Orioles.
If Nightengale said it, you know its 100% wrong.
Trade Snell and Hader then re-sign them as free agents in the offseason. Next question.
Rough Odor! What’s that Snell? Dodgers are great, Padres are just player Haders.
I say one of these guys gets traded. Just one though.
It should be all or nothing at all. I think they need to stay the course, since they have committed so much to it. But they could trade both and simply re-sign them in the off-season.
SDP fans should be hoping for a 5-0 or 0-5 for the next five days.
@JoeBrady. As a Padres fan that is EXACTLY what I am hoping for. And that the Phillies, Reds and Diamondbacks all do the opposite of what the Padres do.
I’d be hoping for an 0-5. If they go 5-0 and buy or stand pat, I think it’s bad for their long term outlook. I just don’t see this years Padres team getting in or doing much if they do. (Yes, I know anything can happen, but counting on extremally unlikely outcomes as your plan isn’t much of a plan.)
They’d do well to trade these guys and see if they can’t get some depth on the cheap to fill in holes on the MLB roster over the next couple years. Unless ownership plans to go full mets, they have a decent amount of holes to fill and not a ton of $ to do it, even after you account for the money coming off the books.
Why? What’s the point in trading just one? Are they trying to win now or are they trying to retool for 2024 and beyond?
SD will win 2 of 3 from Tex and sweep Col. They will then kid themselves into a playoff fantasy . Preller should have been fired after the medical record fraud.
Oh you mean the medical record fraud where the Marlins traded them an injured Chris Paddack for a non-injured Fernando Rodney and an injured Carter Capps for a non-injured Andrew Cashner and where the Red Sox traded them an injured Anderson Espinoza for a non-injured Drew Pomeranz?
Medical record fraud = training staff didn’t report use of Advil and/or Tylenol.
Don’t strain an arm beating that muffled drum, jmi!
The Medical record fraud cost Preller a suspension without pay and the team an undisclosed fine. That sounds serious to me. SD fans real penalty is that they are still stuck with a clueless Preller.
With you on everything but Soto. Their 2024 season is sunk without Soto. They can’t trade him unless they get back CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, James Wood, Bobby Barrels and Jarlin Susana. Or get back something outrageous like Ronald Acuña Jr.
We’re seeing wreckage in the water, Cap’n, and we found a life ring that had SS Mets printed on it.
Cap’n: “FULL SPEED AHEAD!!!”
You are completely disconnected from reality. No further reason to read your posts.
Padres are 49-53
Just dropped 2 of 3 to the Pirates
10 games back in the NL West
6.5 back in wild card standings
Sounds like outinleftfield is WAY out in left field.
And apparently got so upset about how things are they mute another user who says padres should be sellers not buyers lol. Which I assume “No further reason to read your posts” means. Dude. Get a grip. It’s just a game. People are allowed to have different opinions on what your favorite team should do.
And uses multiple accounts to “agree” with himself.
Out – I’ve been saying this about Math ever since I read his first post. Haven’t read anything to change my mind. Tired of telling him wrong he is. Thanks for picking up the torch!
You’re clearly replying to your own post under a different account left field. How many accounts do you have man?
Outinleftfield
Pads Fan
Koamalu or whatever it was
Longtimecoming
Forgot BaseballisLife, websoulsurfer and PLTuna.
Just to clear your head – this is my only account.
I think baseballislife is where he goes to post his really stupid comments, which is saying something…
Padres wont sell front office is on the line for bringing all these players in on expanding payroll for results. They will ride this titanic til the end.
Outinleftfield is Pads Fans
By the way, the Padres and Dodgers are playing a series in Korea next March. The Padres probably aren’t going to trade Kim until after that unless they get offered something outrageous.
No surprise that they wouldn’t trade them. Even if the Padres miss the postseason this year, they want to make it next year. Any return would have to be players that can make an impact in 24. Contenders would be targeting Snell and Hader and would be unlikely to give up pieces that will help in 24. They would be more likely to give up young talent.
There are exceptions like the off-season trade between MIN and MIA where they traded impact players. At least the players didn’t have much of a uniform change 🙂
Snell leads the NL in ERA, Hader is near the tops in saves. Both of them would get back something decent, at the very least.
They could target major league ready prospects in the Snell and Hader trades or just trade them for lower level prospects with more future value and then come the offseason flip those higher FV prospects for more immediate help at the ML level.
These guys are free agents. They aren’t helping 24 unless you resign them which you can did even if you trade them.
They will get at least 2 top 100 prospects for these two guys. They can be guys that play next year, or they can be guys they can trade for guys who play next year. Plus the money they save they can sign guys to replace them. These guys will be getting paid bank as free agents .
Nailed it.
SNELLZILLA STAYS ON WEST COAST NEXT YEAR. Angels or Hometown Mariners or Giants. Last Roadtrip expressed Dislike of Humidity Big Time.
Gut tells me he’s a Padre again, with or without a trade this year. We shall see!
“So you’re saying there’s a chance…”
Old timer – yeah I heard the interview and he was pretty clear he didn’t care for the east coast trip. That could be a good sign for staying in SD where he really seems happy.
Seattle would likely be on his radar but he has also made comments about the lack of sunshine there! Not sure what they would pay since they have a fair core SP staff.
West coast teams for sure are the favorites.
Am I the only one viewing Hader as a golden parachute to get padres out of a bad salary commitment, like Carpenter? A team over performing and with cap space is more willing to eat money, then give up future stars, right?
Carp isn’t that expensive. They can eat his 6m, so no you don’t trade these guys for to move Carps contract.
I’m not saying they’d only off Carpenter, but that they can put him in a deal and expect less on the return side. Could be an easier ask. And that 6mil off the books is 6mil they could put towards an effective bench, and get em close to under that teir 3 penalty.
I think the up and coming contenders are willing to part with B+ prospects much quicker than A+ prospects, and moving Carp is how you get there.
I’d say they will never do that
Snell and Hader are exactly the 2 guys the orioles need.
Gotta give to get… so whatcha giving?
I’ll take 4 of those top 100 and they can keep the top 2.
For two rentals? You can keep them and enjoy the comp picks, in that case. Two top 100s (#s 7 & 8) + a couple guys in the realm of Stowers/Beavers/Prieto/Fabian.
It’s not going to be two back in 100 guys. Gio got better than that and his isn’t close to these guys.
No he didn’t
The Padres could solve some of their depth issues by trading Snell,Hader, and Lugo. The Padres wasted the talent of these players because of depth issues, inconsistent offense, and a weak bullpen. What good is Hader when the bullpen routinely blows the lead before getting him the ball. The trade deadline provides the Padres with an opportunity to patch the holes in sinking ship.
So you’re telling me there’s a chance