The Padres’ season has been an abject disappointment, but despite a 10-game deficit in the NL West and a six-game gap in the NL Wild Card chase, they apparently remain intent on keeping the roster together. ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes that the Friars have received and thus far rebuffed interest in lefties Blake Snell and Josh Hader.
Both southpaws are free agents at season’s end. Snell is wrapping up the final season of a five-year, $50MM contract extension originally signed with the Rays. He’s earning $16MM this season. Hader is in his final season of arbitration eligibility and being paid $14.1MM.
After a rocky start to the season, the 30-year-old Snell has rediscovered the form that helped him win the American League Cy Young Award in 2018. Dating back to mid-May, Snell has pitched to a preposterous 0.78 ERA and 35.9% strikeout rate in 69 innings. He’s walked an ugly 13.4% of his opponents during that time, although that number is at least partially skewed by one anomalous start in which he issued seven free passes. Overall, Snell carries a 2.61 ERA. He’s running a strikeout rate north of 30% for the sixth consecutive season.
Hader, similarly, has rebounded this season. Much was made of the lefty’s struggles prior to last July’s trade to San Diego and subsequent rough patch early in his Padres tenure. However, he closed out the year with a dominant stretch and was excellent throughout the postseason as well. He’s backed that up with 38 innings of 0.95 ERA ball, 24 saves and a massive 38.4% strikeout rate in 2023. Like Snell, he’s too prone to free passes (13.2% walk rate), but Hader’s penchant for missing bats has helped to mitigate any potential damage.
Both pitchers would be clear candidates to receive qualifying offers at season’s end, and both would surely reject in search of a lucrative multi-year deal in free agency (barring a notable second-half injury or collapse). As such, the Padres can feel confident that they’ll at least come away with a pair of compensatory picks in next year’s draft. However, since they’re luxury-tax payors, those picks would land after the fourth round rather than the standard slotting between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the draft.
The luxury tax comes into play in another regard for the Padres, too. San Diego is currently about $4MM north of the third line of luxury penalization ($273MM), per Roster Resource. That’s the point at which a team’s top pick is pushed back by 10 selections in the following summer’s draft. Trading Snell and the remainder of his $10MM luxury hit ($3.655MM, as of this writing) wouldn’t drop the Padres under that threshold. Hader ($5.154MM still owed to him) would do so. To be clear, there’s no indication the Padres are endeavoring to drop below that line at this time.
For much of the offseason, the Padres appeared reluctant to cross that third luxury barrier. Many of the team’s late-offseason dealings were structured in convoluted ways designed to tamp down their luxury-tax implications, including their extension of Yu Darvish and signing of Michael Wacha. They’ve nevertheless wound up north of that line and are currently on pace to have next summer’s top pick dropped by 10 spots.
If owner Peter Seidler’s comments earlier this month are any indication, the loss of draft capital isn’t likely to be a deterrent. On July 2, when the Padres were eight games under .500, 11.5 games back in the division and 8.5 games out of the Wild Card chase, Seidler pledged that his team would not “reverse course.” San Diego has played better since that time, going 11-7 and trimming that Wild Card deficit by two and a half games.
There’s an argument to be made that the Padres could explore deals for Snell and/or Hader, prioritizing near-MLB help and simultaneously looking to back-fill the roster with lower-cost rentals. I explored as much in a piece for MLBTR Front Office subscribers a couple weeks back. Doing so could net talent that would help in 2024 and beyond while simultaneously improving their 2024 draft outlook and at least loosely keeping their 2023 postseason aspirations afloat. That’d be a fine line to walk, however, and the Padres’ postseason chances are obviously greater if they simply hold onto Snell and Hader.
At least for now, that appears to be the front office’s plan. Passan suggests the Padres could look to add to their bullpen and perhaps turn to the farm system if those efforts come up empty.
The remaining handful of games between now and next Tuesday’s trade deadline remain worth monitoring. The Friars have their series finale against a free-falling Pirates club right now and will play the last-place Rockies next Monday, the final day before the deadline. That pair of favorable matchups bookends a pivotal three-game set against the AL West-leading Rangers.
If the Padres can pull themselves up to .500 or at least pick up another game or two in the Wild Card hunt, it stands to reason they’ll continue their all-in approach to the current season. On the other hand, a series of losses could conceivably make the front office give more consideration to a soft sell of rental pieces. As with so many clubs around the league, the next few games will be critical in shaping the Padres’ approach to the deadline.
The Os could use a Hader type more than anything.
Then they could have a closer when Felix can’t go
I’d love to see Hader back in Baltimore. We won’t pay him in free agency but he’s exactly what the team needs this year.
Here’s to hoping the Pads lose a lot this week!
@Edp007 – Yennier Cano (2.3 bWAR/230 ERA+!!!) has entered the chat.
The only RP in the AL more dominant than BAL’s setup man is their closer (Bautista).
BAL. needs to focus that prospect capital on the rotation cuz that pen ain’t broke.
Canó been great , still , experience of Hader , really help
@RunDMC
I’m sorry but that’s a fine take if you look at raw statistics but there’s no closer when Bautista is out. He got absolutely blasted last night in Philly. Aside from him the best reliever is Coulombe. He’s not capable of closing games either. Hopefully Fuji turns into a guy but that’s a question mark.
I agree that we need a SP but we also could use a high leverage arm. Cano and Bautista are taxed. They pitch in 90% of the games we win.
And adding 1 starter who consistently goes 6-7 innings isn’t going to change the fact that we turn the game over to the same 2 guys in the 8th and 9th almost every time. We have to have another strong set up man to make noise.
Maybe one of Baumann/Fuji/Tate/Perez steps up and becomes that. But they certainly haven’t thus far.
how many other teams (even contenders) have 2 legitimate closer- or in this case 3.
Bautista and Cano are super elite releivers at this point.
Coulombe, Baumann, and Baker are as good as you are good as everyone not named Hader and Bednar that could possibly be available right now.
Overall that is a good bullpen with 2 stars and 3 legit set up guys. They hopefully get Tate and Givens healthy for the streatch run, in the post season they also have some starters who may fare much better from the pen (Garyson and Hall being the obvious options, but Kremer may- i think Bradish and Wells are their postseason starters with them needing to trade for a 3rd- and Gibson maybe being postseason long relief if needed since he is not a post season starter by any imaginatioin).
Realistically, this is a team that really needs to be looking at a SNell (or other starter) since Bradish and Wells have been top of the rotation arms this year- but past that Gibson Irvin, and Kremer will never have a place starting a game in the post season (they are inning eating 4th or 5th starters); and Grayson and Hall have not been good this year. I guess there is a chance they use Povich down the strech to see what he has on the big league level, but that is super risky.
James123
how many other teams (even contenders) have 2 legitimate closer- or in this case 3.
==============================
There is also a value issue here. For all practical purposes, Hader, Bautista & Cano are interchangeable in terms of bWAR. So one could argue that the O’s are trading for a #3 RP.
But they still have to pay the same price as teams desperate for a closer. Every improvement is good, but every team needs to focus on their biggest weaknesses first.
I think holding the lead in the 7th inning is still critically important.
Wells/Kremer/Bradish is better than people give credit, but agreed.
take Kremer off that list. Wells and Bradish have both had great years, Wells gives up too many HR to even be more than a #2/3 type, and Bradish lacks overpowering stuff to be more than a #2 pitcher… but that is a #2 and #3 pitcher on any staff in the big leagues.
Kremer has just not delivered. He is much closer to gibson than those two. They are Guys that will throw plenty of innings that will keep you in games- but that is #4/5 type starters.
They need a rental ace (or at least another good starter) for this year, and hope that Grayson is truely ready to be an ace next year… since he did not make the step forward this year.
A starter is needed, I agree.
But we can shorten games with a bullpen. Bryan Baker belongs nowhere near high leverage innings. I don’t want to see him in a 1 or 2 run game. The Astros have multiple closers and that’s the team we need to beat. Texas went out and added Chapman. That’s a big help. We can’t ride Bautista and Cano that hard. God forbid one of those 2 goes down. We’d be in trouble.
Kremer/Bradish are underrated. Really impressed with Kremer from ATL series. Will they hold up until Oct? If they’re able to acquire someone like David Robertson and relieve Cano/Bautista – great. But an innings-eating SP or long RP would help immensely, too. Scary if they’re able to get Cionel Perez back into ’22 form.
Baumann is a good multi inning reliever. We absolutely need another starter. You’re dealing with a rotation full of guys who are mostly going to be posting career highs in innings. You may see one of them start to fade as we get into September. But if that happens—we still need the leverage arm. Can’t throw Bautista every single day unfortunately.
Kimbrel, Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez is a pretty good trio.
I wonder if the Pirates would trade Bednar? A elite closer on a last place team is a luxury. Might be better cashing in that chip now for some pretty good prospects. I say “pretty good prospects” because Bednar is not a FA at season’s end. Could be wrong, but an acquiring team would get the rest of his 2023, and all of his 2024 and 2025 seasons.
Robertson is good because he has been in that set up to a closer role as well as being a closer, and multiple times this year he has gone more than one inning.
That said, Scott Barlow in KC is good and dependable and KC should be sellers. Not sure if Mike Elias likes him or not, but he is a closer and not sure he wouldn’t want to remain one, though I think he’d do whatever to pitch for a playoff bound team.
I’m not sure how closely you watch the Orioles, but the pen is absolutely gassed. It needs reinforcements, especially from the left side.
Came here to pick up a cupcake?
If the O’s add a starting pitcher, they can bump T. Wells to the pen, where he was previously pretty dominant.
Although, having a flame throwing lefty in the pen would be nice.
@Rob
But if we move Wells to the pen. Who takes the ball in October? Bradish, new acquisition, and ?.
Gibson? Tough to take Wells out of the rotation but might be reality if he starts wearing down. He’s real close to his career high in innings.
The Padres shouldn’t be turning away interest in Blake Snell and Josh Hader. Their a Good team having a bad season. I do understand keeping Juan Soto and making a run in 2024. For Hader and Snell, they can definitely get a nice haul in return.
Who exactly can they get that would help them win in 2024? What contending team is trading controllable MLB talent for rentals?
Texas needs to sweep them to change their minds.
I don’t think that gets Seidler past his denial stage. It seems more likely he won’t get there until the offseason.
I know others will say they aren’t surprised by SD’s poor record. Well, I am surprised.. They are 13th in RS and 4th in RA…how can they be 4 games under .500?
Because their bullpen stinks outside of an excellent closer.
0-9 in extra innings. Pure guess on my part is that some of this is due to a top-heavy lineup. A couple of huge hitters atop the lineup is easier to deal with in extras than a balanced lineup. They are also more pro-HR and lower in average. That’s fine in innings 1-9, but in extras, singles are probably more important.
I think the Padres and Angels have effectively buried the “stars and scrubs” strategy. You need more than a couple of superstars and some warm bodies to compete these days.
Superstars
Soto
Machado
Kim
Bogaerts
Tatis
Darvish
Musgrove
Snell
Hader
They have more than a couple superstars. They just have others that have underperformed. Nola, Grisham, Cronenworth, Carpenter, Cruz, most of the bullpen.
Because no matter what anyone says, run differential is meaningless when it comes to winning baseball games. If you win 9 games by a total of 12 runs and then get beat in the 10th game by a score of 15-2, You’d have a run differential of -1 despite your record of 9-1. It CAN be an indicator of success, but it doesn’t have to be. If an indicator is not accurate, there is no point in using it as an indicator at all.
Run differential over a long enough period of time is a good predictor- but you are right that it does not normalize completely even over a full season.
There are also things that the math struggles to deal with. A fielder throwing an inning at the end of a blowout still counts as runs against- even if they are totally meaningless runs. But over a long enough period- it should happen enough that it all sort of cancels out (you do it once and someone else does it to you).
I generally credit teams that are off by any reasonable amount under 2 things: Bullpen useage (if you leave a guy in to get shelled for longer to save the rest of the pen, it will throw numbers off), and the effect a manager has.
there are teams that consistently out preform their run diferential- and normally they have a well regarded manager and a good bullpen (or at least one of them).
You have to throw away outlier games for run differential to be useful. If you give up on a game and put your utility infielder on the mound and lose 18-1. That has to be adjusted. Raw run differential is something to look at but not entirely useful.
The 18-1 game won’t make any difference for a couple of reasons.
1-Everyone has these, and they happen on both wins and losses, therefore canceling each out. Just because I am a RS, I checked them in 2022. The biggest win was by 13 and their biggest loss was by 10. The net of 3 runs. That changes their net run differential for the season by 0.02.
2-In the long-term, allowing 18 runs in a game only increases your runs allowed by 0.12.
FWIW, in 2022, 17 teams cam within 2 wins or losses of the Py W/L. It’s one of the best predictive models I have ever seen.
@Joe
That’s crazy that it was that close. SDP isn’t close at all right now.
@hiflew Haven’t you defended using pitcher wins in the past?
Two different arguments. I defended against the idea of people removing pitching wins from the record altogether. If you don’t like them, then don’t use them. Same with run differential. I don’t like it and I don’t view it as credible. Doesn’t make me right, but it does explain my position. Your position can be different. This is all just opinion anyway. There is no right or wrong.
Run differential is certainly more credible than pitcher wins and losses.
Once again, two different arguments. And they are not mutually exclusive.
I’m not sure about that. Look at a full season and see who is at the top in run differential and who is at the bottom.. Are those at the top typically with winning records?
In 2022, the Twins had a +12 (ranked 14th) and a losing record. Teams 1-13 all had winning records.
2021, the Padres had a +21 (ranked 14th) and a losing record. Teams 1-13 all had winning records.
In 2019, every team with a positive run differential had a winning record.. The Phillies were -20 and had a .500 record.
The worst records are at the bottom for run differential for a season.
I agree that in the short run, say 20 games or less, it doesn’t mean much.
Because they win blowouts and lose close games. They can’t hit in clutch situations at a historic clip. They score 10 runs then get shut out the next game.
Bullpen sucks and the offense is so inconsistent. We’ll win 15-0 one day (and get our runs scored totals up) and then lose 3 straight games by a score of 2-1
That sounds like Texas in 2022.
Confirms my suspicion that a lot of this is teams throwing names out there to make it look like they are doing something when in reality they will do nothing.
SD just has way too much money and ego invested in this group to trade anyone of significance. I think the most likely scenario is they keep both and back up the Brinks truck this winter to extend both + Soto because we all know if you overpay players you get better results, right?
You got know when to hold ’em and know when to fold ’em.
Know when to walk away and know when to run!
HYD VPH? Life treating you okay? Stay cool and hydrated.
Doing well. Hope you are too. Stay thirsty, my friend.
Welcome back to these pages, Von Purple Hayes. Missed your insights.
Twins really need a lefty for the pen. Moran has done well but Theilbar has been out most of the year. Duran and Hader would be a filthy endgame combo
how has Lopez worked out for you?
They may be a little skiddish after trading for one of the “more elite” arms at the deadline last year.
Hader is a little more established than Lopez was at that time
Heyman gets it wrong again
Translation-The Padres were getting offers but none that were in the level of talent that they wanted in return.
yes and- normally this does not leak unless their demand is silly.
I assume both would go for similar hauls- likely a back end of the top 50 prospect, or a pair of guys in the top 150 (varies based on need for that sort of prospect and proximity to the bigs).
IE- if the Os offered norby or Joey ortiz for Snell and were told to pound salt they want Holliday…. then their demand is not in alginment with what a reseasonable return would be…. generally it has to be more than the comp pick they would get if the guy left- but how much more is the question.
Hader is worth that, Snell is not. He simply doesn’t throw enough innings to be worth a top 50 guy.
Snell has the best ERA in baseball this year and is already over 100 innings…
He throws exactly 5 innings per game every game.
Most starters don’t get tagged till after that when they have really bad ERA inflating starts.
He’s a glorified long reliever.
I’m not saying Snell goes deep into games because he doesn’t, but he’s pitched at least 6 innings in 12 out of his 21 starts this year so saying he goes “exactly 5 innings per game every game” is just not accurate.
He’s 19th in the National League in innings thrown this year. If you can go 6 most of the time in today’s game relatively speaking that’s going to put you above most other pitchers.
Since May 1st he’s gone more than 5 innings in 9 out of 16 starts. Only 1 of those outings was less than 5 innings. That’s been the issue in the past, but this year he’s going deeper in games.
Why would the Padres WANT Norby or Ortiz? They don’t fit their needs. Of course the Padres would tell them to pound sand if that was the offer.
Now if they said Kjerstad it would be filling a need for the Padres and make more sense.
The Pads made a lot of moves to push chips in for this year. If they go 5-1 or something then it’s going to be really hard to punt. They’ll have to figure out 3 rotation spots and the potential loss of Hader next season. It’ll either be an expensive off-season or the team is looking a lot softer in 2024.
They’d restock their depth if they pull the trigger on the deals though. They certainly don’t have minor league pitching anywhere close to the bigs to help.
that is the kicker- they are all in for right now, but not playing well this season (or at least not winning enough games this year). This was a year they had highlighted to contend- and luck has just gotten in the way.
That’s why you don’t “push all the chips in”
Or whatever that means. Org depth is needed to win. The contributions from guys on your farm throughout the year is necessary. It takes more than 26 guys on a team to get through a season.
The Astros won the WS last year and it had little to do with the deadline moves they made. Vazquez was essentially a non factor and Trey made 1 nice play. But Trey also couldn’t hit a baseball to save his life.
So finish .500 and lose both in off season
Could say the same with ohtani and angels
Pads have a better shot than LAA though. They’re getting Suarez back for the pen & the roster is simply more talented than many of the teams in front of them.
This is the problem when you paint yourself into a corner with all the moves the Pads have made though.
The Pads have a “better shot” than the Angels at what? I hope you don’t mean postseason play.
Padres probably do have a better shot than the Angels at post season play. Have you seen the Angels upcoming schedule?
Maybe the Padres should get to .500 first before you start assuming they’ll have a better shot at postseason than the Angels.
And yes, I’ve seen the Angels upcoming schedule. Formidable opposition, but the Angels are no slouch and will only be getting stronger with the returns of Drury, Rendon, Trout, and O’Hoppe. Plus, they’ve beat Seattle in every series this season. Took 3 of 4 from Texas in Arlington. Oakland and NYM are also beatable. They went toe to toe versus Houston recently. The Toronto series will be a great one to also make up ground in the wild card.
I’m actually looking forward to the upcoming games as it will be put up or shut up for the Angels.
I’ll preface this by saying I hope the Angels and Padres both make the playoffs. Would love to watch ohtani in the postseason.
The angels have a tougher route to make it. FG has them as 16% likely to make it vs. 33% for the Padres.
fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
Ohtani is a different beast in the sense that he’s a huge money maker. People come in from out of state just to watch Ohtani. Snell and Hader are fantastic, but they aren’t selling the tickets and merch like Ohtani. Even if the Angels lose him to free agency, they have a couple of more months of Ohtani mania.
You can build a whole team with 4th round draft picks
Worst outcome is they QO both and get draft picks if/when they depart via free agency.
Did the same to Justin Upton and someone else couple years back.
Wouldn’t be surprised if they QO Wacha and possibly Lugo depending how they do remainder of the season.
No reason to QO Wacha, he has a ’24 & ’25 Team Option.
Wacha has a mutual option that almost certainly will be declined. They’ll be QO’ing or giving him a new deal if they want to retain. He’s going to get a multi year deal or the QO at minimum.
I don’t think they should pick that up. He’s admittedly killing it so far this year but I don’t think Wacha is going to sustain this level of production over 2 more years.
We need to see what he looks like when he’s back from his injury, but his FIP is significantly higher than his ERA so I think we’re due for some Wacha regression.
Ah right it’s a 2/32 team option.
They may pick that up but you’re making that rotation very expensive if you intend on signing Snell back.
He has a mutual option at seasons end for 16.
He finishes the season strong I definitely think he opts out
2024 is 16
2025 is 16
2026 is 6
Definitely think he can beat 3 years 38 mill if he continues to pitch the way he has been. Not by much but he certainly could get 3 years 40 or 3 years 45 mill.
@math
I believe it’s a 2/32 club option. If they decline he has a lower value player option. I believe.
Sportrac says 2024 is a mutual option.
Which is both a club and player. Club must pick up the option and player must exercise the option. If one side declined the option is void.
Unless there’s some language that says if padres pick up the option and wacha declines it’s treated as a club option or sportsrac is wrong and 2024 is a club option not a mutual option.
spotrac.com/mlb/san-diego-padres/michael-wacha-132….
@Math it’s not a mutual, it’s a club option for 2/32, but in the event the team declines the club option he then has a 3/18.5 player option with incentives that he can exercise. Fangraphs has a great breakdown on this:
blogs.fangraphs.com/michael-wacha-and-the-padres-s…
@Math&Baseball Spotrac lies. Wacha doesn’t have a mutual option despite the fact that you keep repeating it. A mutual option has a very specific definition and this isn’t it.
If the Padres pick up their option Wacha has nothing to accept or decline, the next 2 years are locked in. If they don’t, THEN Wacha has 3 1-year player options for 2024, 2025 and 2026 which the Padres have no say in what he does with those.
Also Wacha gets to go year-by-year with the player options. He doesn’t have to exercise all the years at once like the Padres do.
Yeah, not the only one who thought it was a mutual option based on a mostly reliable source that made an error. As if baseball reference fangraph mlbtr hasn’t posted an error.
Cited my source. Turns out source posted incorrect info. We can move along now.
Player option and if he doesn’t come back and pitch well he will take it.
Admit you were wrong…again.
@Math&Baseball Tell Pads Fans to admit he was wrong about Luis Campusano’s marijuana charges being reduced to a misdemeanor in January 2021, about Eric Hosmer not being allowed to refuse an outright assignment without forfeiting his salary, about Spencer Strider being credited with 2 years of service time for 2022, about Freddy Galvis and his agent both saying before the 2018 season started that they wanted to sign an extension with the Padres, about Preller offering the Angels CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III, Luis Campusano, Reiss Knehr and Joshua Mears for Shohei Ohtani at the 2022 trade deadline, about the Padres having to send Miguel Diaz back to the Brewers if he didn’t spend 90 days on the active roster in 2017, about Manny Machado saying while he was with the Dodgers that he’s not signing with a New York team under any circumstances and about the Athletics trading Sean Manaea for Adam Frazier straight up.
Theu probably just pick up Wacha’s option if they are willing to commit that kind of money to him.
The NL wild card spots are open as many of the teams battling for them have been struggling in July. Very tough for SD, Mets and Cubs to throw in towel. If any go on a hot streak they could run down a few of the teams in front of them. This makes the trade deadline far less enticing than it should be this year. Deadline would be a lot more interesting if Cubs, Mets and Padres were clearly out of race.
that is what the 2nd wildcard was supposed to do- put more teams in contention late into the season. The bubble is just a little big than back in the day- a single wildcard would mean any sub .500 club would likely throw in the towel; with 2 there are a lot more teams right around .500 that are going to wait as long as possible.
I think there are at least 5 teams talking and laying groundwork to get deals done quickly depending on what happens in the next 4-5 days. If you get hot- then you are a buyer and want to know who at least was (and by that idea still) available, and if you lose all those games you want to know who would be interesting in what you have.
If you know the Os will give you Joey Ortiz for Snell- but want to wait till Sunday- then you at least know that is on the table (unless they make another move) so it can pick up and have the details worked out in a few hours.
San Diego really needs a 1B though. They have an ultra expensive infield of Kim, Crone, Machado, and Bogey for the foreseeable future. The only one who won’t be there forever is Kim but he’s under contract next season anyway. I can’t imagine ortiz would be the guy they’d target to get back to contention in ‘24.
Bstrowman9
San Diego really needs a 1B though.
===========================
That’s why I argued that Bogaerts was subtraction by addition. Signing him moved a great SS to 2B, which required moving an AS 2B to 1st. They should’ve spent the $285M on a 1B and a #3 SP.
@Joe
Agreed. That was a terrible move by the Pads. Roster construction is key.
Padres really need only a big bat to DH on offense. That is what they were hoping for from Carpenter. They are not displacing Cronenworth after signing him to a long term deal.
Seeing 6 or 7 games behind in the Wild Card is very deceiving, What matters more is the amount of teams in front IMO. I really think the hole is too big to climb out of. Every night one or more of those teams is winning.
The Cubs maybe a different story because the division is only 6 games. So they have a shot. The Mets and Padres are out if it IMO.
@Von
It’s an uphill battle but they have plenty of games against SF and AZ left. 14 games against those 2 teams. On paper, the Pads have a better team than those 2. They should be able to slide past the Marlins and Cubs because I don’t believe either one of those teams is very good.
Possibly Cincy’s young team scuffles down the stretch also. There’s a path— but it is a very difficult one.
The D-Backs aren’t going anywhere unless they add SP. The Giants are gonna do an el-foldo. Don’t like their everyday line up and don’t like their rotation.
Though some may call this heresy, the Dodgers are far from invincible. But so long as Freddie, Mookie and W. Smith stay healthy, they’ll be OK.
Still believe the Padres are gonna go on a run and grab a W/C slot. Way too much talent.
The Reds? Have leapfrogged the Pirates (Early season version.) as the feel good story in 2023. No one expected them to win 75 games. If they get Lodola and Greene back soon, they will be tough. Might even catch the Brewers.
Keep an eye on the Phillies, though. They have three players (Turner, Realmuto and Schwarber) barely producing. I expect all three to get hot before season’s end. Especially Trea Turner.
Fangraphs projections have both miami and cincy falling off, and 85 wins taking the last WC slot – with SD projected for 83 wins. Get hot and beat the projection by 2 games, and it’s possible. Lot of mid in the NL
I’m not sure I buy NYM and CHC being in it as bad for SD. They’ve already completed their season series with both teams. So there’s theoretically going to be more competitive games with teams like Philly, AZ, SF, MIami, etc.
Friars owe their Fans. 48 sell outs so far this year. Plus don’t they get Comp 1st Round Draft Picks if they don’t take Pads FA offer?
Nope. They paid the luxury tax so the comp picks would be after the 4th round. And what they owe to the fans is maximizing the overall utility from Snell, Hader, Wacha and Lugo.
I think they should trade ol’ 5 inning Snell. The guy might be good if you need him to go 5 innings but he doesn’t throw enough quality innings. Padres and Mets have an issue with signing big names that don’t necessarily come through.
Do you watch baseball? Snell usually goes 100 pitches, has the best ERA in the NL, is 3rd in strikeouts. The only reason his record isn’t good is a few bad starts in the beginning of the season and an underperforming offense. He has had several quality starts. I know I have been at many of them.
He’s an okay pitcher but 100 pitches over 5 innings isn’t great.
There’s a reason the Rays traded him so easily to the Padres- going consistently 5 innings isn’t as valuable as people think, even with the low ERA.
He’s thrown 180 innings once in his career. Aside from that, the highest he’s thrown in a season is 128 innings. That’s not great pitching in my book if you only pitch two thirds of the time and come out after 5 innings. Even bad pitchers usually throw more innings and are more economical on average.
I will also note that Snell leads the league in walks this year… case in point.
Against good teams in the postseason? That’s not going to fly.
Look at his game logs. Snell has been at his best against the best teams and players.
I’d take Snell in a heartbeat for my Phillies. Don’t care if, after 100 pitches, he’s only completed 5 or 6 innings. The guy is awesome. Unfortunately, I don’t believe my Phillies have the prospect capital to get a deal done. But the Reds do!
If he comes cheaply, I’d do it too. I’m not saying he’s bad, I’m just saying he’s not a top guy that people think he is. Just expect to have a good bullpen behind him.
This is how you lead mlb in era:
No one on: 275 PA (7 hr) .194/.303/.321
Men on: 203 PA (4 hr) .202/.315/.312
RISP: 116 PA (1 hr) .152/.267/.232
Snell pitches with men on like Soto hits with 2 strikes… fearless!
I just think pitching against good teams with guys on will get different results and eventually catch up to him.
Jays and Pads traded Fernandez , McGriff for Carter and Alomar 30 plus years ago.
Bichette Vladdy for Soto Kim Hader.
How do we make that trade work folks?
Kim alone has been worth more than Bichette and Guerrero combined this season. Even Preller is smart enough to reject that proposal.
Danky, I love Kim but u r overvaluing him ( better than both combined ?) how do u make it work then ?
You need a controllable 1B “ slugger”
As a Padre fan, this is enticing. And I love Kim and believe in Soto. There is something here, especially if Toronto takes the Carpenter contract and maybe throws in some ok farm tools, nothing top end, just filler.
Or get creative and take on padres Hosmer obligation.
If we’re going by WAR Kim has been more valuable than Bichette and Guerrero combined. His defense is top notch, as is his baserunning.
Hader alone should fetch two or three pieces for next year alone if they decide to trade him. He’s arguably the only obvious trade candidate if the team is in fact planning to retool for next year. Packaging all three players together dilutes their value.
And Seidler has clearly stated the team won’t be reversing course so a major cost cutting move is unlikely midseason.
you dont.
Hader is a rental. Soto has 1 year of control left, Kim has 1 year of conrol at 7m. So basically you are talking about 2 months of Hader, 1 year and 2 motnhs of Kim and Soto.
Vlad and bichette- 2 more years of control.
Reasonably, I think Bichette or Vlad alone is worth those 3. Maybe you need to include something else of value with them, but not another player of that caliber.
Another way to look at it is excess value on their contracts- I have not looked in years, but 1 WAR on the open market is likley about 7m. Dollar value likely means that 1 war next year is worth 10% less than 1 war this year (and so on for future years)
Soto is likely a 6 WAR player (3.8 thus far this year, high water is 7.1 and has had some clunker seasons). So he is worth 42m per year. So this year he is making 23m, so he has 19m of excess value this year- just the playoff run (so lets say half) is about 10m in excess value this year. We can also say it is likely the same next year- so 19m in excess value, and a 10% discount on WAR in the future- so about 17m in excess value for next year.
On the open market, soto’s contract if just sold at auction would reasonably be worth 27m.
Kim is a 5 war player (5 last year and 5.1 this year, but i am not as sold on him being this eltie). he makes 7m this year and 7m next year. So he is playing like a player that should make 37m minus the contract value is 30m. this half season is worth 15m, and next year with the dollar value deduction is 27m.
Kim;s contract on the open market is worth about 42m.
Hader is much lower due to the time left on the contract- he is 3 WAR player worth 21m, making 15m. So 6m for a full season- so about 3m of value left.
So Kim (42), Soto (27) and Hader (3) are the rough values of what is there (so about 72m in excess value on their contracts).
Bichette- he is likely a 4-5 WAR guy- so 5 is easier. so his value on the open market is 35m, 3m for this year (and haved due to mid season) is 16m in value. Next year 35m with 11m as the projected arb number- or 24m, or 22m assuming future dollar value. 2 years out 35m with a projected arb number of 17m gives 18m with future dollar lost (205) of 14m.
Bichette’s excess value is 52million. the math for Vlad is very similar as they both have similar amounts of control and are both 5 WAR range players in their prime.
If you want to make that trade make sense- Jackson Merrill (the top prospect for the Padres) would also need to be included to make it around 100m on both sides of the ledger. A top 20 prospect over the course of his entire years of control is normally worth around 25-30m (first 3 years alone is normally paid 2m total, so if they can make 5 war in 3 years they are found money, but the flame out rate is much higher here- since even blue chip prospects fail- look at Brendon Wood, Dom Brown and many others that were top 5 prospects once upon a time- that no one cares about anymore.
that is why you seldom see trades like this happen- the values are all over the place- and the future discounts vary by when your window to compete is.
Guerrero is not the bankable 5 WAR player you’re portraying. He’s worth 1.2 this year and 14.4 for his career, which includes 6.8 in 2021 alone. If the production matched the pedigree fans would have no interest in trading him.
You don’t. This isn’t 1990.
Carter was expendable for the Padres because he was getting expensive (by 1991 standards)
McGriff and Fernandez were expendable to a Blue Jays team that had John Olerud ready to take over at 1B and Manny Lee capable of replacing Fernandez at SS.
The Blue Jays needed a RH bat to replace George Bell and the Padres needed a 1B to replace Jack Clark. Honestly the deal probably could have been made straight up without Fernandez and Alomar but i imagine money probably had something to do with it.
The deal filled holes on both teams. Bichette and Guerrero for Soto and Hader doesn’t benefit the Blue Jays at all
Those dudes don’t get Soto on his own let alone all 3.
Padres have no use for Bichette but Guerrero for Kim works from both a value perspective and a filling needs perspective (at least for the Padres, idk what the Blue Jays’ biggest need is).
Kim alone (5.0 WAR) is worth as much or more than Vlad Jr (1.2 WAR) and Bichette (3.9 WAR).
So that is a hard no.
Padres have little depth in the OF, so moving Soto without getting back another all star OF is not going to work.
Springer is old and hurt. Varsho is Grisham redux. The two teams are not a match if Soto is in the deal.
Don’t forget that the Padres are playing in the Korea series to start off 2024, so Kim would not be part of any deal. Too much money at stake in promotions for the Padres.
What farm system? AJ traded it all away.
He’s done an OK job getting lower minor league talent back in. But you saw this year how bad it hurt to not have upper level minor league depth to call up.
They have 4 top 100 prospects. It’s not a super deep system anymore but they still have legit top end talent.
check the latest keith law rankings. 2 top 10 prospects and 5 in the top 100. That’s top tier.
Fangraphs live Farm System ranking has the Padres at #12 today…
fangraphs.com/prospects/farm-system-rankings
hiflew
Because no matter what anyone says, run differential is meaningless when it comes to winning baseball games.
================================
While there will always be some variance, the vast majority of the teams will be within +/- 4 of their Py W/L.
96% over the past decade have been within 4 wins of the PY W/L.
Both would instantly become the best assets on the market at their position. But of course Preller and his delusions think they can contend
Barring losing their next 6 games, SD should be all-in. The farm for a $145M payroll team is twice as important as the farm for a $285M team. Once you decide your budget is $285M, you can pretty much buy an entire team.
The only issue I see with Snell & Hader is that, if SD chooses to not trade them, that will put pressure on them to keep them. If they do that, they will be looking at $300M+ pretty quickly.
@Joe
Uncle Steve spent that much money and doesn’t have much to show for it. Spending only gets you so far. They need to have organizational depth. That kind of depth only comes from the minor leagues.
Org depth is crucial. It takes a lot more than 26 when guys start breaking down. If there’s no one in AAA who can come up and help your squad—you’re in a bind over the course of the season.
Bielak and France have saved Houston from a lost season. Could’ve went south real quick with all those SP injuries. Of course, you have to be able to develop those arms.
I guess they figure they can readily get into a WC spot with the Phillies, Marlins, Giants, and Dbacks all in freefall.
I don’t really see the Phillies in that category despite struggling against Cleveland. They recently took 3 of 4 from SD and are 5 and 5 in their last 10. They have a shot to win (or lose) a series against Baltimore today.
It’s more of a slight stumble than a freefall.
As a Phillies fan, I hope you’re right. It’s just that all of the vets besides Harper are in a huge slump offensively and pretty much have been all year (except Casty who was hitting consistently up until the break). The SD series was fun but other than that, the pitching has basically been carrying the team ever since the Oakland series.
Yeah. I agree. The Phillies are tough to watch. Realmuto, Schwarber and Turner have been automatic outs. It’s brutal.
Absolutely, Von. Harper’s move to 1B is huge. Puts Schwarber where he belongs (i.e. DH). And we improve our defense with Marsh in LF and Rojas in CF.
The biggest fly in the ointment for the Phillies is their manager. Thomson makes some move that really leave me dumbfounded. Not a leader IMHO. Gotta be a reason why he was someone else’s second banana for the past twenty years.
And, when he talks, he’s about as inspiring as watching someone tie their shoes. So much so, he makes Ryne Sandberg sound like Clarence Darrow!
With the limited time-games left and the unlikely collapse of others the odds are against them. There’s always next year.
Last night’s game was a good example of why they should not move Hader or Snell. They’re going to need them both to make a run. They need an OF bat to replace Grisham’s addiction to the called third strike…
I watched the game alone in my den last night, the only time I audibly said anything was when Grish watched a called 3rd strike go right down the middle of the plate. Infuriating at-bats, Gold Glove defense. Argh!
Padres should get Lane Thomas from the Nats if replacing Grisham is in the cards.
Snell and Hader would both be a big boost for the Angels. I’d propose a package led by Jo Adell plus Jordyn Adams, Livan Soto (or Jeremiah Jackson) and an arm such as Mason Albright (or Chase Silseth).
The Pads might lose them in free agency and end up with nothing in return.
QO picks*
The Angels, like every year, are toast. Worst run org in MLB next to the hapless Rockies.
Angels need to bite the bullet on 2023 and trade Ohtani for a huge cache of prospects. Too bad Rendon is untradeable.
The White Sox have a worse Org than the Angels. I think the Angels GM is at least middle of the pack. Ownership dips their hand in the business far too often though.
I’m no fan of Perry Minasian, but I’ll give him credit for picking up Moniak and O’Hoppe from the Phillies last year for Marsh and Syndergaard. Those two players should help the Angels for years to come.
Yeah Minasian is fine. Moreno is the problem.
They’ve won 6 of their last 7 games with many of their injured starting players to be returning (i.e., Drury, Rendon, Trout and O’Hoppe). But sure, “they’re toast.”
They can do better for Snell
They’ve spent almost 700 million in three years and have yet to win 90 games.
Snell and Hader are young. The Padres should pay them. This team is going to figure it out and become formidable soon. All of you haters are going to have to shut up.
Waiving the white flag could cost Preller his job so he has to ask for ridiculous trade packages back to save face. The Padres need a lot to go right the rest of the way to sneak into the playoffs but even if they get in by the skin of their teeth this team is still a disappointment based on talent alone
“Doing so could net talent that would help in 2024 and beyond while simultaneously improving their 2024 draft outlook and at least loosely keeping their 2023 postseason aspirations afloat.”
Not true across the board.
The Padres biggest holes are starting pitching depth and in the bullpen. If they are getting a return that helps them contend in 2023 and 2024 THAT is where it would need to be.
They only have one position, DH, that needs substantial help right now. They do not have to move either Snell or Hader to get a DH. They can get a DH rental for a couple of low A relievers.
1B is not great, but they are locked into Cronenworth long term, so that is not an area they can trade into.
Contending teams are not trading away controllable MLB talent that will help the Padres with their biggest needs in 2023 or 2024, starting pitcher and high leverage bullpen pieces, for rentals. That is what Snell and Hader are, rentals. So, that is a no.
Non-contending teams have no need for rentals.
After the 1st 5 picks in the draft, there has historically been no appreciable difference in the talent level of the 1st round draft picks as measured by WAR.
Trading away arguably the best starter and best closer in baseball removes any possibility of contending in 2023.
End of conversation.
They could trade Snell and Hader for close-to-MLB-ready prospects or, knowing Preller, trade them for prospects and flip those prospects in the offseason for more help at the MLB level.
“After the 1st 5 picks in the draft, there has historically been no appreciable difference in the talent level of the 1st round draft picks as measured by WAR.”
I found this which has a curve modeling draft position vs. expected WAR.
baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/06/draft_picks_…
Either way, drafting higher means you get a larger bonus pool, especially when trading Snell and Hader means your duck the third luxury tax threshold and your top draft pick isn’t lowered 10 spots.
“Trading away arguably the best starter and best closer in baseball removes any possibility of contending in 2023.”
You’re right on this count but this isn’t shaping up to be the Padres’ year even with Snell and Hader. Keeping Snell and Hader then missing the playoffs anyway is definitely my worst case scenario.
Thanks for the 14-year old research that proves my point. Beyond #5, it doesn’t make a ton of difference where in the first round you pick.
As Tango said in comments to that article when looking only at playing time prior to FA the differences shrink even further.
Larger draft pool means more money to spend, not an appreciably higher production out of the draft pick.
I am right on all counts.
If you look at recent drafts it is more of the same. Draft position absolutely matters in the first round.
Larger draft pool means the Padres can take someone in the first round who dropped due to signability concerns, which you said previously they should do with the bonus pool money from the QO comp picks from Snell and Hader.
There is no controllable player that could help now that a contending team would trade for Snell and Hader. It would be counterintuitive to trade a player who is helping now and has several years of control for someone who would help now but is a rental. I never disputed that. I think Billy Beane made a huge mistake trading Yoenis Cespedes back in 2014, for instance. The way the A’s as a team hit down the stretch proves that.
What controllable player could they trade for that would help in the majors this season as a starting pitcher or high leverage reliever that a contending team would be willing to give up for rentals?
If they are controllable and ready to contribute at a high enough level in the majors in 2023 to keep the Padres in the hunt they won’t be traded by a contending team for a rental. That is the point.
None. I said this before but my thinking is if something is working you don’t mess with it. Even if the player(s) you are getting back have more WAR than the one(s) you are sending out or the ones you are getting back ostensibly fill more of a need.
King Bob (Nightingale) says the Padres likely will trade them now. Minion reference btw
The most important comment in Seidler’s interview a month ago is that the season doesn’t end in July.
Trade Snell and Hader then re-sign the as free agents in the offseason.