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Post-Lockout Trade Candidates: Impact Players With A Chance To Move

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MLB Impact Trade Candidates

Earlier in the week, MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes published our list of the 14 players we consider to be the likeliest trade candidates following the ongoing MLB lockout. That list was the result of an extensive talk with Tim, myself and Anthony Franco, wherein we considered the possibility of more than 100 players and whether they could (or could not) viably change hands. While that Athletics-heavy list contained who we agreed to be the likeliest, it certainly didn’t represent every plausible trade candidate in our eyes.

As Tim noted within that post, we wound up sorting our list of plausible trade candidates into various buckets/tiers. The top 14 was simply the likeliest, regardless of contract or quality of player, but for the remainder of the exercise, we chose to categorize things based on how impactful a player might be to his new team. This, admittedly, is subjective. We didn’t establish a defined set of concrete parameters in labeling this group “impact” players; rather, we focused on mid-rotation (or better) starting pitchers, high-leverage relievers and hitters with recent All-Star-worthy performances (even if they didn’t necessarily result in an actual All-Star berth). Three wins above replacement in a given season wasn’t a firm cutoff, but we did ask at multiple points whether we a player had recently or could be reasonably expected/projected to turn in a 3-WAR season while sorting them.

Once these players were tiered, we further broke them down by whether they were legitimately plausible candidate to change teams or just someone whom other clubs would be trying to pry away. Basically, none of Tim, Anthony or myself would bat an eye to see Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas traded. Bryan Reynolds or Cedric Mullins, though? We’ll probably hear about teams trying to pry those players loose from their respective clubs (hence their inclusion), but a deal coming together seems like a long shot and would register as a mild surprise (if only because of the asking price and remaining club control).

As Tim explained, some of these players are interconnected. While the Reds have three starters who could plausibly change hands, we don’t necessarily think all three will move. It’s the same with the A’s roster. They could plausibly move multiple players — GM David Forst said amid November reports of a mandate to slash payroll that they’d have to listen on the whole roster — but that doesn’t mean the A’s are going to trade seven or eight players.

Anthony will follow this list up in the near future with a collection of solid regulars who we believe could change hands and/or will be in high demand following the lockout, but for now, here’s our second tier of trade candidates — legitimate impact players who could plausibly change teams but perhaps aren’t as likely to go as those listed by Tim earlier in the week…

Plausible/Decent Chance to Move

Luis Castillo / SP / Reds

The Reds’ offseason transactions since the close of the 2020 season have included a salary dump of Raisel Iglesias, non-tendering another quality reliever (Archie Bradley), trading Tucker Barnhart to Detroit, and placing Wade Miley on waivers rather than picking up a reasonable $10MM option. GM Nick Krall kicked off the 2021-22 offseason by declaring a need to “align our payroll to our resources.” Rumors of trades involving Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray (listed among our 14 likeliest candidates due to his age and larger price tag) and Tyler Mahle naturally followed.

Even if the Reds aren’t actively shopping the 29-year-old Castillo, teams will be calling to inquire, and Krall and his staff will be listening.  The Reds probably aren’t going to shop him and simply let him go for the best offer, as they control him through 2023. They could always hold and market him again this summer or next offseason if no enticing offer materializes post-lockout.

Still, Castillo might be the best starting pitcher who could feasibly change hands. He got out to a brutal start in 2021, but over his final 22 starts, Castillo was excellent. He racked up 135 1/3 innings (six-plus innings per start) and notched a 2.73 ERA with a 26% strikeout rate, a 9.4% walk rate and a massive 59.9% ground-ball rate. Castillo’s ugly April/May results skew both his 2021 numbers and his collective numbers from 2019-21, but over the past three seasons he’s still posted a 3.61 ERA while fanning 27% of his opponents.

Maybe he’s not a true “ace,” but Castillo is a playoff-caliber starter for virtually any team. He’s projected to earn $7.6MM in 2022 and would be owed one more arbitration raise in 2023. Essentially, he’ll cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $20MM for the next two seasons — a bargain rate that should be reflected in a huge asking price from the Reds.

Tyler Mahle / SP / Reds

Mahle doesn’t have the name value that Castillo brings to the table, and his track record of success is shorter. Nonetheless, he’s blossomed into a sharp mid-rotation arm over the past two seasons, sporting a 3.72 ERA with a 28.1% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate. Unlike Castillo, he’s a fly-ball pitcher, which has at times bitten him at his bandbox of a home stadium; Mahle has given up 30 home runs in 227 2/3 frames dating back to Opening Day 2020, and 24 of them have come at home. He posted a 2.30 ERA away from Great American Ball Park in 2021 and, in his career, has a 5.09 ERA at home versus a 3.72 mark on the road.

A spacious home park would benefit Mahle perhaps even more than your average starter, although his penchant for yielding fly-balls will likely always make him a bit susceptible to the long-ball. Mahle has also been more of a guy who pitches into the sixth rather than completes six or seven frames (5 1/3 innings per start since 2020), but that’s increasingly common in today’s era of aggressive bullpen usage.

Mahle’s shorter track record may give some fans pause, but teams are likely comfortable projecting him as a quality arm based on the past two seasons of missing bats at a high level. And, that shorter track record has left him with a lower price point in arbitration, as he’s projected to earn $5.6MM in 2022. Like Castillo, he’s controlled through 2023, so there’s no immediate urgency to move him — especially given his affordable price tag. Still, teams will be calling, and the Reds can justifiably ask for a strong return.

Frankie Montas / SP / Athletics

Sticking with pitchers who have two remaining years of club control, Montas joins a long list of Athletics who could be traded post-lockout. Amid reports of a mandate to slash payroll, GM David Forst outwardly acknowledged back in November that the A’s will have to listen to offers on the majority of their roster.

Montas, unlike free-agents-to-be Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt, is controlled through 2023. And unlike Matt Olson and Matt Chapman, his projected $5.6MM salary is a bit easier for the A’s to stomach. That’s why Montas is in this “bucket” of our trade candidate rankings, but even if he’s not as likely to move as some of his teammates, a deal is certainly still plausible.

Though Montas isn’t without red flags — he served an 80-game PED suspension in 2019 and had never reached 100 innings in a big league season prior to 2021 — it’s hard to ignore the quality results. Since 2018, Montas has pitched 401 innings of 3.57 ERA ball with a 24.4% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate and 43.7% ground-ball rate. His swinging-strike rate has continued to improve, and this past season’s 26.9% strikeout rate was a career-best. He’ll turn 29 in May, and he’s an upgrade for any team’s rotation.

Tyler Glasnow / SP / Rays

Glasnow is the most talented name on this list and, when healthy, looked the part of a legitimate ace with Tampa Bay. From 2019-21, Glasnow tallied 206 innings with a 2.80 ERA and fielding-independent marks to match. He punched out a ridiculous 36% of his opponents, walked just 7.8 percent of them and kept the ball on the ground at a 45% clip. Among the 114 starting pitchers who totaled at least 200 innings in that time, Glasnow ranks tenth in swinging-strike rate and second to only Shane Bieber in his combined percentage of called and swinging strikes. Only Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole had higher strikeout rates.

With that type of profile, two years of team control remaining and a projected $5.8MM salary for the 2022 season, a healthy Glasnow would be a no-brainer for the Rays to keep. Of course, Glasnow is not healthy. He’s likely to miss most, if not all of the upcoming season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last August. Arb-eligible players who miss an entire season due to injury typically sign on for a repeat of their prior year’s salary, meaning that in 2023 Glasnow will likely pitch on the same salary as 2022. Using that same $5.8MM projection, the Rays would be looking at about $11.6MM for one season of Glasnow, when his workload would need to be monitored coming back from major surgery.

Glasnow’s career-high innings total in the Majors is 2018’s 111 2/3, and his career-high for any professional season is when he reached 155 innings between Triple-A and Pittsburgh combined back in 2017. Realistically, the Rays would probably be thrilled to get 100-120 innings from Glasnow in 2023 — and an $11-12MM price tag on that modest total is rather steep for a team with Tampa Bay’s general payroll concerns.

Other clubs would welcome the opportunity to take that chance, however. We’ve seen two-year pacts for Tommy John rehabbers like Drew Smyly ($10MM with the Cubs), Michael Pineda ($10MM with the Twins) and Garrett Richards ($15.5MM with the Padres). Glasnow’s price tag is toward the lower end of that spectrum in terms of dollars, but the cost of trading prospects also has to enter into the equation. For an arm of this caliber, however, there are plenty of teams that would take the plunge.

Glasnow, for his part, recently told Chris Rose that he strongly hopes to remain with the Rays (YouTube link). Perhaps there’s a contract to be worked out that could benefit both parties, but Glasnow himself acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding his status and that president of baseball operations Erik Neander will have to listen to some offers if and when other teams come calling.

Josh Hader / RP / Brewers

Teams have been trying to get their hands on Hader for years, and the Brewers have steadfastly refused all overtures. The reluctance is understandable, as Hader has established himself as arguably the best reliever in the sport. In 282 1/3 career innings, he’s posted a 2.26 ERA and fanned exactly four out of every nine batters faced. No longer being used for multiple innings at a time, Hader posted a career-best 1.23 ERA in 58 2/3 frames this past season. The homer he allowed to Freddie Freeman in the NLDS isn’t a great note on which to close a season, but looking at Hader’s broader playoff track record, he has a 1.88 ERA and 23-to-3 K/BB ratio in 14 1/3 innings.

Trading the game’s most impactful reliever wouldn’t be easy for president of baseball operation David Stearns, but Hader’s value is at its apex. He’s also projected to see his salary spike to $10MM in 2022, with a fourth and final arbitration raise coming in 2023. Hader is dominant, but the typically low-payroll Brewers are flirting with what would be a record $123MM payroll. It’s not accurate to suggest that the presence of a second powerhouse reliever, Devin Williams, makes Hader expendable, but Williams’ excellence would at least slightly soften the blow of a theoretical Hader trade.

Milwaukee could still stand to improve its offense, and moving Hader could both free up some financial resources and simultaneously net some immediate help for the big league lineup. The Brewers don’t have to move Hader now, to be clear. However, they probably wouldn’t move him in-season if they’re contending — meaning it’s now or next winter, when they’d be marketing one year  and a $15MM+ salary. That would net far less long-term value. It’s a fine line to walk.

Joey Gallo / OF / Yankees

Gallo popped 13 homers in 58 games following a July trade from Texas to the Bronx, but it’s fair to say the deal didn’t work out as New York had hoped. Gallo’s strikeout rate, which had dipped a bit with the Rangers, spiked to 38.6% as a Yankee. The resulting .160/.303/.404 batting line in 228 plate appearances is one of the more bizarre slashes you’ll ever see from a regular player.

Struggles in New York aside, Gallo was hitting .223/.379/.490 through 388 plate appearances in Texas and had bashed 25 homers in that span — putting him on pace for what would’ve been his third career 40-homer season had he not dropped off with the Yankees.

Gallo has as much power as anyone in baseball, and he’s made himself into a strong defender in the outfield corners (who can handle center from time to time). However, he’s projected to earn $10.2MM in arbitration this season, and it’d be understandable if the Yankees were hesitant at that price based on his post-trade struggles. New York is projected to top $226MM in luxury tax concerns, so moving Gallo could prove beneficial if owner Hal Steinbrenner is again intent on dipping beneath the threshold (wherever that’ll ultimately lie in 2022).

The Yankees have Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks and Giancarlo Stanton as outfield options, with Estevan Florial serving as a possible reserve. Were they to give Gallo a change of scenery by moving him to a team seeking pop in the outfield, they could always sign a free agent to replenish some of the depth. It’s not clear that the Yankees will shop Gallo once the lockout lifts, but the New York Post’s Joel Sherman wrote about the possibility back in October, reporting within that as many as seven other teams tried to land Gallo at the deadline. If he’s on the block, there’ll be interest.

Longer Shots due to Asking Price and/or Remaining Club Control

Ramon Laureano / CF/ Athletics

Given Forst’s comments and the reports of forthcoming payroll reduction, it’s viable that anyone earning a salary of some note will at least be discussed. Laureano, projected to earn $2.8MM this coming season after his first trip through the arbitration process, also represents one of the few plausible center field options on the market, which should lead to plenty of teams inquiring on his availability.

Trading Laureano is more complicated than moving some of his teammates. He’s currently in the midst of an 80-game PED ban which, beyond raising questions about his performance to date, could come with major service time implications. Laureano still needs to serve 27 games of that suspension, which could impact his path to free agency. He currently has three years and 14 days of service time, meaning he’d need 158 days in 2022 to cross the threshold into four years of service and remain on track to hit the open market post-2024. There are only 187 days in a standard season, making it unlikely he’ll end up accruing the necessary time on the roster to get to that point. (Remember that off-days spent on the MLB roster count as a day of service.)

There’s always the small chance that some other factor impacts this trajectory (e.g. the ongoing labor talks, a potentially shortened 2022 schedule, a grievance filing), but as it stands, Laureano could wind up under team control through 2025 rather than 2024. An extra year of team control both heightens his appeal but also makes it tougher to trade him.

Beyond the service-time considerations, Laureano underwent core muscle surgery after the season, which adds another layer to a complicated scenario. But looking solely at Laureano’s numbers, he’s a difference-maker for a team in need of a center fielder (e.g. Phillies, Marlins, Guardians). A career .263/.335/.465 hitter with 25-homer pop, good speed and plus center field defense isn’t a hard sell.

Jesse Winker / OF / Reds

I explored Winker’s situation at length last week, with the bottom-line point being that it makes little sense to listen to offers on starting pitchers with two years of club control remaining (e.g. Castillo, Mahle, Gray) without doing the same on Winker. The 28-year-old slugger has had some issues with durability, doesn’t hit lefties well (though he’ll still draw his walks against them) and isn’t a great defender. That’s an odd trio of qualities to focus on when talking about someone’s trade candidacy, but the other side of the coin is more compelling: Winker’s production against right-handed pitching is at Bryce Harper/Juan Soto levels of brilliance.

Since 2020, Harper and Soto are the only two qualified hitters in baseball with a better mark than Winker’s 169 wRC+ against righties. In terms of more traditional slash metrics, he’s batting an outrageous .322/.417/.619 when holding the platoon advantage. With all the talent on the Reds’ roster, I think Cincinnati should be in aggressive, win-now mode. Krall’s early comments and their dealings since 2020 suggest otherwise, however, and if you’re going to listen on the other guys with four-to-five years of MLB service — why not listen on Winker as well? Cleveland, Colorado, Philadelphia and so many others are looking for offensive upgrades in the outfield corners.

Pablo Lopez / SP / Marlins

As is a common refrain on this list, the Marlins have no urgency to move Lopez, who’ll turn 26 in March. He was limited to 102 2/3 innings by shoulder issues last season and has yet to top 111 2/3 frames in a Major League season, but Lopez has been pretty darn good when healthy. From 2020-21, in particular, he’s compiled 31 starts and 160 innings of 3.26 ERA ball with a 26.4% strikeout rate and a 6.7% walk rate. He’s in his first trip through arbitration and projected for a highly reasonable $2.5MM salary.

So, why even bother considering a move? The Marlins are still hopeful of landing some help in center field, and they’re also so deep in pitching talent that it borders on comical. The old adage that a team can never have too much pitching always rings in the back of our minds, but the Marlins aren’t short on options beyond Lopez. Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers, Elieser Hernandez, Jesus Luzardo, Sixto Sanchez, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett, Nick Neidert, Cody Poteet and Daniel Castano are all on the 40-man — and top prospect Max Meyer is quickly rising through the minors. Injured top prospect Jake Eder will be back in 2023.

Jose Ramirez  / 2B, 3B / Guardians

The favorite subject of so many hypothetical trade scenarios from fans, Ramirez does feel likely to end up traded … at some point. The question is whether now’s the time. Cleveland has him for $11MM this year plus a $13MM option in 2023. Given Ramirez’s elite play, there’s little chance of the Guardians extending him beyond that 2023 season, but there’s also good sense in Cleveland taking another run at the AL Central with Ramirez as a focal point. The pitching is still excellent, and while the lineup clearly needs another bat or two, the 2022 payroll is currently projected at only $49MM. There’s room to add some help for Ramirez and Franmil Reyes, and a deep farm system could also provide some in-house upgrades.

It’s also impossible to look at the situation without accounting for public relations. We’re only a year removed from Cleveland trading Francisco Lindor in a wildly unpopular move, and many fans’ anger with further fueled by the team’s name change. The newly-named Guardians are looking to usher in a “new era” of Cleveland baseball, and trading their best player for a second straight offseason isn’t a great way to foster good will.

If the first half of the season goes poorly, I’d expect Ramirez to be among the most talked-about names at the 2022 trade deadline, and there’d be a much stronger chance he moves at that point. With regard to the offseason, however, there’s just not enough urgency to push something across the line unless Toronto or another on-paper suitor puts forth an over-the-top offer. Even then, fans who’ve already purchased new Guardians gear bearing Ramirez’s name are going to feel rather jilted. It’d be tough for the front office to make this move now.

Bryan Reynolds / OF / Pirates

Reynolds is the best player on a last-place team that’s squarely in the midst of a rebuild so it’s hardly a surprise that he’s been in trade rumors dating back to the summer. Rival teams know the Pirates are open for business, and it’s only natural they’d try to acquire a center fielder capable of posting a .302/.390/.522 slash like the one Reynolds logged in 2021.

On the one hand, there’s an argument that the rebuilding Buccos ought to listen on anyone — and they surely will. But on the other hand, Reynolds is 27 and controlled another four seasons. His trade value won’t diminish substantially if the Pirates hold onto him, giving the fans at least one recognizable and marketable star player. Reynolds is a Super Two player who’s projected to earn an eminently affordable $4.5MM in 2022, so there’s no financial pressure. Everyone has their price in a trade, especially on a team like the Pirates, but for some context, that price reportedly included Mariners uber-prospect Julio Rodriguez (and more) when the two teams last talked. Baseball America currently ranks Rodriguez as the No. 2 prospect in all of baseball.

Cedric Mullins / OF / Orioles

Most of what was written about Reynolds applies to Mullins. The Orioles’ breakout star put together a 30-30 season last year while hitting .291/.360/.518 and is controllable for another four seasons — through age 30. No one expects the Orioles to contend in 2022, but they’ll get a look at top prospects like Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez and D.L. Hall this year. Reinforcements from the farm are on the way, and it’s feasible that by 2023 (and certainly by 2024), they could be on the cusp of turning a corner. Mullins will be under control, affordable and in his prime at that point.

The Orioles aren’t going to declare anyone on their Major League roster “untouchable,” but Mullins would only be available for a staggeringly strong offer. A Mullins trade doesn’t seem likely, but teams are going to at least try to force GM Mike Elias’ hand.

Ketel Marte / 2B, CF / Diamondbacks

Teams have been trying to pry Marte from the D-backs for more than a year. Arizona reportedly took the extra step of plainly telling rival clubs in early July — weeks before the trade deadline — that Marte wouldn’t be moved. That probably didn’t stop clubs from trying, and teams will be trying again post-lockout. The Marlins, Yankees, Mariners and quite a few others have at least been speculatively linked to Marte, whose team-friendly deal heightens his appeal. Marte will earn $8MM in 2022, and his contract calls for a $10MM team option in 2023 and a $12MM team option in 2024.

Dating back to 2019, Marte boasts a .318/.374/.543 batting line with 48 dingers, 79 doubles, 11 triples and a lowly 14% strikeout rate (versus a 7.6% walk rate). He’s rated poorly in center field, from a defensive standpoint, but is well-regarded defensively at second base. A 28-year-old switch-hitter with power, some speed, plenty of versatility and a grand total of $30MM owed to him over the next three years ($21MM of which isn’t even guaranteed) is wildly appealing. The D-backs, however, have shown little inclination to move him in the past, and assistant GM Amiel Sawdaye echoed that sentiment in November, calling Marte a “cornerstone” player around whom the D-backs can build.

Zac Gallen / SP / Diamondbacks

Twenty-six years old and controlled another four seasons, Gallen is precisely the type of pitcher that pitching-needy teams like the Rangers, Twins, Nationals and so many others would dream of acquiring. A forearm issue slowed him in 2021 and limited his workload, but Gallen has now made 50 starts in the Majors with a 3.46 ERA, a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 9.6% walk rate to show for it. He’s already been traded twice — going from St. Louis to Miami in the Marcell Ozuna deal before being flipped to Arizona in what amounted to a rare prospect-for-prospect swap sending Jazz Chisholm back to the Fish.

The D-backs didn’t even trade Merrill Kelly at this past summer’s deadline when he was a fourth starter with 1.5 cheap years left on his contract. It’s hard to imagine they’ll be excited about the idea of giving up four seasons of Gallen — particularly when his stock is down a bit, owing to last season’s arm issue. Gallen closed out the 2021 season quite well, with a 3.19 ERA and 52-to-15 K/BB ratio in his final 48 frames (eight starts). Sawdaye listed Gallen as a “cornerstone” player right alongside Marte, adding that the D-backs never plan to fully punt on a given season. Their signing of Mark Melancon for two years and $14MM meshes with the notion that this is not a team on the brink of a full-fledged teardown. Teams can try to nab Gallen, but it’d likely require some young MLB-ready talent going back to Arizona. Overall, the odds are low.

David Bednar / RP / Pirates

One of several pieces acquired in last winter’s Joe Musgrove trade, the 27-year-old Bednar stepped up and solidified himself as the Pirates’ likely closer in 2022. Through 60 2/3 innings, Bednar posted a tiny 2.23 ERA with a 32.5% strikeout rate, an 8.0% walk rate and a 41.4% grounder rate. Bednar yielded only five home runs all season (0.74 HR/9) and averaged 97 mph on his heater. He looks the part of a legitimate high-leverage weapon, and he’s controlled for five more years — all the way through 2026.

With such good results, a pre-arbitration salary and so much team control remaining, Bednar probably isn’t going anywhere. (As a bonus, he’s a Pittsburgh-area native.) The Pirates can’t (or at least won’t) simply trade every player who shows some semblance of value, after all. That said, the last thing most rebuilding clubs need is a high-end closer, and bullpen help is always in demand. Bednar will be 29 or 30 by the time the Pirates are realistically turning a corner, and the attrition rate on relievers is higher than anywhere else on the diamond. The argument for capitalizing on his value right now is pretty clear, but as with the rest of this “long shot” list, it’s hard to see a team meeting what would surely be a pretty substantial asking price.

NL Notes: Brewers, Tellez, Naquin, Smith

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Corbin Burnes and Josh Hader combined on Major League Baseball’s record-setting ninth official no-hitter of the season, as the Brewers recorded a 3-0 victory over the Indians.  Burnes struck out 14 Cleveland batters over eight dominant innings, though since Burnes amassed 115 pitches, Hader was brought in to finish things off with a perfect ninth inning.  It was the second no-hitter in Brewers franchise history, since Juan Nieves’ gem on April 15, 1987.

Baseball’s “Year Of The No-Hitter” hasn’t been kind to the Indians, who have now set a record by being no-hit three times in a single season.  Zach Plesac has been the Tribe’s starting pitcher for all three of those games, and Plesac matches Jim Perry as the only hurler in baseball history to be on the mound opposite three no-hitters in his career (let alone in a single season).

The latest from around the senior circuit…

  • It wasn’t a perfect night for the Brewers, as first baseman Rowdy Tellez left the game prior to the bottom of the second inning due to a knee injury.  Manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) that Tellez has been bothered by the nagging injury for some time, and he will undergo an MRI tomorrow to determine the extent of the problem.  Acquired in a trade with the Blue Jays in early July, Tellez hit .265/.325/.464 with seven home runs over his first 166 plate appearances in a Milwaukee uniform.  Tellez has become the Brew Crew’s top first base option, though if he has to miss time on the injured list, the team can turn to a combination of Daniel Vogelbach, Eduardo Escobar, and Jace Peterson at first base.
  • A sixth-inning collision between Reds teammates Tyler Naquin and Jose Barrero resulted in Naquin leaving the game with bruised ribs.  Naquin and Barrero were both in pursuit of a short fly ball from the Cardinals’ Dylan Carlson, but the ball eluded the duo in painful fashion, resulting in an RBI double for Carlson.  In positive news, Reds manager David Bell told reporters (including C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic) that there weren’t any concerns that either Naquin or Barrero suffered a concussion.  The Reds don’t play on Monday, so it seems likely that Naquin will get two full days off to recuperate, and it remains to be seen if the injured list will ultimately be required.
  • Caleb Smith lost the appeal of his 10-game suspension, and began serving that suspension today.  The Diamondbacks southpaw was hit with the 10-game ban after umpires discovered a foreign substance on his glove during an August 18 game.  Smith strongly protested his ejection from the game and subsequent suspension, though his appeal didn’t result in a change of the league’s initial decision.  Smith has a 5.04 ERA/4.68 SIERA over 105 innings this season, moving between Arizona’s rotation and bullpen amidst a lot of control problems.

Brewers Activate Josh Hader, Transfer John Axford To 60-Day Injured List

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The Brewers activated closer Josh Hader from the Covid-19-related injured list Thursday, clearing roster space by optioning lefty Hoby Milner to Triple-A Nashville and transferring righty John Axford to the 60-day injured list, per a club announcement.

Hader, 27, is in the midst of yet another dominant season on the mound, having pitched to a career-low 1.83 ERA with a 45 percent strikeout rate that leads all qualified relief pitchers and a 9.4 percent walk that’s down more than three percent from his shaky levels in 2020. Devin Williams has been getting save chances in Hader’s absence, but Hader figures to again serve as manager Craig Counsell’s go-to option in such situations now.

The news on Axford was to be expected. The Brewers already announced earlier this month that the 38-year-old right-hander sustained a season-ending elbow injury during his first big league appearance since 2018. Unfortunately, Axford indeed sustained an injury to his ulnar collateral ligament, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reported this morning, and he’s weighing what the injury means for his career at this point. President of baseball operations David Stearns indicated that Axford is likely looking at a “reconstruction” surgery (i.e. Tommy John).

“It’s really unfortunate,” said Stearns. “We feel awful for John. I think he was very excited to come to this team. He was excited to pitch in a pennant race, hopefully pitch in the playoffs again. Unfortunately, it didn’t work out.”

Given the timing of the injury, a Tommy John procedure would very likely wipe out all of Axford’s 2022 season as well. If he did attempt a comeback, he’d be doing so in 2023 for what would be his age-40 season.

Brewers Place Lauer, Hader, Hiura On Covid List

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Aug. 4: The Brewers announced yet another positive test: lefty Eric Lauer. He’ll head to the Covid list and be subject to a 10-day quarantine, at minimum. That move opens roster space to add righty Sal Romano, whom the Brewers claimed off waivers from the Yankees this week.

Lauer, acquired alongside Luis Urias in the trade that sent Trent Grisham and Zach Davies to San Diego, has quietly enjoyed a strong season in Milwaukee. He’s made 15 appearances — 11 starts, four bullpen outings — and notched a 3.50 ERA with a 22.9 percent strikeout rate and an 8.9 percent walk rate. He’s been brilliant as of late, too, making even a brief departure a tough blow to the Brewers. Over Lauer’s past seven outings (six starts, one relief appearance), he’s pitched to a 1.98 ERA with a 31-to-13 K/BB ratio through 36 1/3 frames.

Aug. 3: Milwaukee has also placed infielder Keston Hiura on the COVID-19 list, the team announced.

Aug. 2, 4:50pm: Hader indeed tested positive, tweets Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. He’ll be out a minimum of 10 days.

3:38pm: The Brewers have placed lefty Josh Hader on the Covid-19-related injured list, per a club announcement. Newly added righty John Axford has been selected to the Major League roster in a corresponding move. The team did not specify whether Hader has tested positive or was a close contact. Individuals who test positive are subject to a 10-day quarantine, while close contacts are subject to seven-day absences.

It’s been another dominant season for the 21-year-old Hader, who has pitched to a sterling 1.83 ERA while striking out 45 percent of his opponents against a 9.4 percent walk rate through 39 1/3 innings thus far in 2021. Hader is the latest in a growing number of Brewers to hit the Covid IL, joining bullpen-mates Hunter Strickland, Jandel Gustave and Jake Cousins as well as right fielder Christian Yelich.

With Hader sidelined for a yet-unknown period of time, right-hander Devin Williams figures to step in as the primary option in save situations for manager Craig Counsell. Brent Suter, Brad Boxberger and the recently acquired John Curtiss will be among the first names up for setup work.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/15/21

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The deadline to exchange arbitration figures is today at 1pm ET. As of this morning, there were 125 arbitration-eligible players who’d yet to agree to terms on their contract for the upcoming 2021 season. Arbitration is muddier than ever before thanks to the shortened 2020 schedule, which most believe will lead to record number of arb hearings this winter. Be that as it may, it’s still reasonable to expect dozens of contractual agreements to filter in over the next couple of hours.

We’ll highlight some of the more high-profile cases in separate posts with more in-depth breakdowns, but the majority of today’s dealings will be smaller-scale increases that don’t radically alter a team’s payroll or a player’s trade candidacy. As such, we’ll just run through most of today’s agreements in this post.

I’ve embedded MLBTR’s 2021 Arbitration Tracker in the post (those in the mobile app or viewing on mobile web will want to turn their phones sideways). Our tracker can be sorted by team, by service time and/or by Super Two status, allowing users to check the status on whichever groups of players they like. You can also check out Matt Swartz’s projected arbitration salaries for this year’s class, and we’ll do a quick sentence on each player’s agreement at the bottom of this post as well, with the most recent agreements sitting atop the list.

Today’s Agreements (chronologically, newest to oldest)

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Stearns On Brewers’ Offseason Needs, Hader Rumors

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The Brewers eked out a postseason berth in 2020 by virtue of this year’s expanded format, laying claim to the No. 8 seed in the National League despite finishing with a sub-.500 record (29-31). They’re headed back into the offseason with plenty of holes to fill thanks to last year’s slate of one-year pickups, but the infield in particular is rife with uncertainty.

In Keston Hiura, Luis Urias and Orlando Arcia, the Brew Crew has some options up the middle, but the infield corners are far less certain. That reality is all the more clear after president of baseball operations David Stearns acknowledged the deficiency in an interview with The Athletic’s Will Sammon this week when discussing the work that lies ahead between now and Spring Training.

“I think what is clear is our production at first base and third base has to improve,” Stearns tells Sammon. “That, we know. Whether that can come from internal sources or external sources are some of the questions we’re continuing to talk through, evaluate and then determine the best course of action.”

While Stearns’ comment about a need for improvement is of course accurate, it also in many ways largely undersells how dire the situation is. Milwaukee third basemen combined for an abysmal .200/.279/.295 in 2020, which translated to an MLB-worst 56 wRC+ at the position.

Things were better across the diamond, where Milwaukee first basemen batted .229/.303/.467 — good for a 101 wRC+ that ranked 17th in the Majors. However, the bulk of that production came from Jedd Gyorko, whose option was bought out at season’s end. Daniel Vogelbach was red-hot in his short time with the Brewers to end the season, but he only logged eight plate appearances as a first baseman. He could be in line for more of a look at first in 2021, but it’s not guaranteed that he’ll be tendered a contract. Vogelbach is arbitraiton-eligible and struggled enormously from the All-Star break in 2019 up until his acquisition by the Brewers. He’s more of a designated hitter than a first baseman, and the lack of clarity regarding the universal DH could lead to a non-tender.

There are plenty of external options to explore at the infield corners, although Sammon reports that the Brewers’ payroll — like the payroll of most clubs around the league — is expected to decline in 2021. The Brewers’ 2020 payroll was set to open at just shy of $98MM before the season was halted and salaries were pro-rated. They currently have about $47.5MM in guaranteed contracts plus a big slate of arbitration players who could approach roughly $26MM in salary. Several of those names are non-tender candidates, which could give Stearns & Co. some breathing room as they search for upgrades.

Trades for high-profile infielders like Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado and Francisco Lindor can be ruled out due to the salary associated with those players. Free agents Justin Turner and DJ LeMahieu, similarly, are likely to be too expensive. But the market does have some intriguing bounceback options, with Jake Lamb and Carlos Santana among the veterans eyeing rebounds. Trade possibilities are numerous, of course, and the Brewers will see a whole new set of possible candidates join the field next week after Wednesday’s non-tender deadline. They’ll also have a firmer grasp on what they can afford to spend at that point.

One player sure to be immune from that non-tender fate is lefty Josh Hader, whose name has again popped up on the rumor circuit. Despite Stearns’ prior assertion that he doesn’t envision trading Hader, Fansided’s Robert Murray reported recently that Milwaukee is “open” to such a move. That’s a far cry from shopping Hader, of course, and Stearns again sought to downplay the possibility while instead characterizing any listening on Hader more as due diligence. The Brewers, per Stearns are in a “very similar position” with Hader as they were after the trade deadline when he initially made those comments.

“Josh remains a very large contributor to our team and he has since he got here,” Stearns says. “I don’t really anticipate that changing. And when you have really good players, you’re going to get calls on them. And I don’t anticipate that changing, either.”

Stearns, like many of today’s presidents and general managers, seems to prefer not to operate in absolutes, so it’s only natural that he’ll continue listening should teams continue to try to blow the Brewers away with an offer. And this time next year or even at the 2021 trade deadline, the situation may be different.

If Hader keeps piling up strikeouts and saves, the arbitration process will keep ballooning his salary. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.1MM in 2021, and barring a long-term deal, that number could quickly rise beyond Milwaukee’s comfort level. If the Brewers are well out of the race next summer or carry Hader into the offseason, it might become more realistic to see a low-payroll club more aggressively solicit offers. That’s not to say that a trade this winter is wholly off the table, but at least for the time being, he appears affordable enough that Milwaukee can enjoy the benefit of a Hader/Devin Williams combo late in games to help slam the door in close contests.

Brewers Open To Moving Josh Hader

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The Brewers are looking for offensive upgrades this winter, and they have at least one significant bargaining chip. Milwaukee is open to offers for elite reliever Josh Hader, per Robert Murray of Fansided.

As central as Hader has been to this run of Brewers contention – and as unique a talent as he has been – the Brewers have to at least listen to offers. He’s projected to make $5.65MM this season, and he has another two seasons of control remaining. Now might be the peak of Hader’s trade value.

For the Brewers, he might be a luxury they can no longer afford. Even at his most dominant, Hader maxed out at 2.7 bWAR during the regular season. There’s additional value for Hader’s role in the postseason, however, evidenced by his dominant run of 10 scoreless innings in the 2018 playoffs that played a major role in getting the Brewers to the NLCS. For an NL contender looking to balance to scales against the  juggernaut Dodgers, a weapon like Hader could present a solution.

Besides, it just so happens that the Brewers produced another high-end reliever in Rookie-of-the-Year Devin Williams. As tantalizing as the pair would be at the tail-end of games, the Brewers have other holes to fill and a limited payroll. They had a roughly $97MM payroll in 2020, and they’re already close to that number with arbitration projections for 2021. They could non-tender Corey Knebel to open up about $5MM, but he’s also a high-end bullpen piece at his best – which he wasn’t in 2020 with a 6.08 ERA in 13 1/3 innings.

If they’re serious about upgrading the offense, which Murray notes finished 26th in runs and 24th in OPS, moving a piece like Hader might provide a path. Naysayers may point to the mph he lost on his fastball this season, but he was still among the very best in the game at limiting hard contact (85.4 mph EV), avoiding barrels (14.7 Barrel%), and striking out opposing hitters (39.7 K%) – not to mention a 2.94 xERA that ranks among the top 10% in the game.

Brewers’ Stearns Addresses Josh Hader Trade Rumors

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Josh Hader’s name surfaced in trade rumors both at this year’s deadline and last winter, as teams understandably inquired on one of the game’s most prolific strikeout arms. There was never any real indication that the Brewers were in serious trade talks regarding the left-hander, though, and over the weekend, president of baseball operations David Stearns all but confirmed that nothing was ever close. Speaking in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link, with audio), Stearns acknowledged that he listened to offers on Hader but chalked it up to due diligence and strongly downplayed the possibility of moving Hader anytime in the near future:

..There are always going to be calls on elite players in the game, and certainly Josh is no different. But we believe he’s a really valuable member of our team and will be going forward. I think there are a couple times of year where you’re going to get that volume of calls: the trade deadline and around the Winter Meetings. Sometimes into Spring Training, the volume of calls picks up. That was certainly the case this deadline, and when you get calls, it’s our obligation to listen and engage and see if something makes sense. With all of that said, as I said before, Josh is a really important member of our team. We’re not looking to move him. We’ve never really looked to move him, and I don’t really anticipate that changing.”

That’s a bit short of former Braves GM John Coppolella’s declaration that he’d sooner give his right arm than trade Freddie Freeman, who remains in Atlanta a half-decade after that comment, but it’s still a notable on-record statement about a disinclination to move the 26-year-old Hader.

There have been plenty of trade rumors surrounding Hader dating back to last offseason, when the Brewers defeated him in arbitration. There was a wide gap between the two sides then, as the Brewers presented $4.1MM and Hader requested $6.4MM. Hader said after the decision came down that arbitration for relievers was “outdated.” That may be true, but considering he’s still scheduled to go through the arb process three more times, the Brewers haven’t felt any urgency to part with Hader so far.

Hader was fresh off his third straight stellar season last winter, of course, but the two-time All-Star hasn’t been as sharp in 2020. Granted, a large portion of the damage Hader has suffered this year came in a four-run, one-inning blowup against the Cubs on Saturday. With that performance factored in, he owns a 4.30 ERA/4.50 FIP with 14.11 K/9 and a career-worst 6.14 BB/9 across 14 2/3 frames this season. Teams still probably won’t be deterred from continuing to try to acquire Hader from the Brewers during the upcoming offseason, but Stearns clearly isn’t in any hurry to give him up.

Central News & Rumors: Hader, Burnes, Twins, Norris, Romine, Tigers, Chatwood, Gio

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The Brewers are receiving a lot of interest on Josh Hader and Corbin Burnes, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (all links to Twitter), though there isn’t any sign that Milwaukee would consider moving either reliever for anything less than a major offer, particularly for Hader.  Brett Anderson or David Phelps are perhaps more realistic options to be dealt if the Brewers opt to move an arm.  The Yankees and Twins are two of the clubs who have been in touch with the Brew Crew about Hader, but there hasn’t been much indication that talks led anywhere.

Let’s dive into some news and trade buzz from around both the NL and AL Central divisions…

  • The Tigers are drawing interest in catcher Austin Romine and left-hander Daniel Norris, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports in both a tweet and a longer notes column.  The Rays are one team linked to Norris, who has impressed by posting a 2.40 ERA, 7.2 K/9, and 4.00 K/BB rate over 15 innings.  The former second-round draft pick has been plagued by injuries throughout his career and missed part of Summer Camp recovering from a positive COVID-19 test, though he has performed well as a multi-inning reliever for the Tigers this year.  Romine has also enjoyed a strong season with a .291/.309/.418 slash line over 81 PA, though his trade chip status could have a late wrinkle — the Tigers scratched him from today’s lineup due to right knee soreness.
  • Tyler Chatwood left today’s outing due to right elbow discomfort, according to the Cubs.  The righty bounced a pitch to the plate in the third inning, with manager David Ross telling ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers and other reporters that Chatwood initially felt a problem while throwing a breaking ball on the previous pitch.  Chatwood was making his second start back from the injured list after missing much of August with a back strain.  Elbow problems aren’t good news for any pitcher, though it is particularly concerning in Chatwood’s case since he already has a Tommy John surgery on his record.
  • The injury bug also struck on the south side of Chicago, as the White Sox placed left-hander Gio Gonzalez on the 10-day injured list (retroactive to August 27) with a right groin strain.  Gonzalez’s first year with the Sox hasn’t been a smooth one, as he has a 5.11 ERA over 24 2/3 innings and a 1.5 HR/9 that is almost twice his 0.8 career average.  His most recent outing was, intriguingly, 3 2/3 inning of shutout relief against the Cubs, which could hint at Gonzalez’s role for the White Sox when he returns from the IL.

Pitching Notes: Hader, Bumgarner, Pearson, Dodgers, Beeks, Wright

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On a night in which White Sox ace Lucas Giolito fired the first no-hitter of 2020, let’s check in on several other notable pitchers…

  • The Brewers are “listening” to offers for star reliever Josh Hader, but it’s not likely the club will trade the 26-year-old left-hander before the Aug. 31 deadline, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes (subscription link). Milwaukee was also willing to entertain proposals for Hader last winter, but it elected to retain him heading into this year – his first of four potential arbitration seasons. For a bargain price this season (a prorated $4.1MM), Hader has given the Brewers 9 1/3 scoreless, hitless innings with 13 strikeouts and five walks. He’s obviously not someone the Brewers are going to give up for anything less than a massive offer.
  • After throwing a 70-pitch bullpen session Sunday, Diamondbacks southpaw Madison Bumgarner could be closing in on a return from the injured list, per Steve Gilbert of MLB.com. Bumgarner has been on the IL since Aug. 9 with a mid-back strain, but he came out of his bullpen session unscathed, which manager Torey Lovullo called “very encouraging news.” The former Giant’s first season as a Diamondback has been anything but encouraging, though. After inking a five-year, $85MM contract in the offseason, Bumgarner has logged a 9.35 ERA/8.79 FIP with 6.75 K/9, 3.63 BB/9 and a 23.7 percent groundball rate in 17 1/3 innings. The 31-year-old averaged a career-worst 87.8 mph on his fastball during that four-start stretch, but Lovullo revealed Bumgarner’s “velo ticked up a little bit” during sim games.
  • Right-hander Nate Pearson, whom the Blue Jays placed on the IL on Aug. 19, has been diagnosed with a flexor strain, according to Scott Mitchell of TSN. He’s hoping to play catch this weekend, Mitchell reports, though it remains unclear if the rookie will return in 2020. Pearson struggled to a 6.61 ERA/7.60 FIP with 7.71 K/9 and 6.61 BB/9 over four starts and 16 1/3 frames before going on the shelf.
  • Dodgers righty Joe Kelly has been on the IL since Aug. 10 with shoulder inflammation, and a return isn’t imminent for the reliever. Manager Dave Roberts said Tuesday (via Ken Gurnick of MLB.com) that Kelly remains “a ways away” from rejoining the Dodgers. When Kelly does come back, he’ll have to serve a five-game suspension stemming from a July 28 dustup with the Astros. Meanwhile, Dodgers lefty Alex Wood won’t come off the IL before the end of the month, Gurnick tweets. Wood, who’s also dealing with shoulder inflammation, has only made one appearance this year (on July 25).
  • The Rays’ injury-laden pitching staff may have lost yet another hurler Tuesday, when southpaw Jalen Beeks left their game with an elbow/forearm issue. Manager Kevin Cash didn’t come off as optimistic afterward, saying (via Juan Toribio of MLB.com), “It sounded similar to Kitt, but we don’t know anything yet.” Cash was referring to righty Andrew Kittredge, who went on the 45-day IL on Aug. 12 with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament. A similar fate would be a season-ender for Beeks, who has been terrific in 2020. The 27-year-old has notched a 3.26 ERA and a much more impressive 1.74 FIP with 12.1 K/9 against 1.86 BB/9 across 19 1/3 innings.
  • Veteran knuckleballer Steven Wright hasn’t taken a major league mound since July 13, 2019, but the former Red Sox righty informed Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe that he’s not ready to call it a career. “I just don’t want to sit back in a few years and wish I had tried it,” said the soon-to-be 36-year-old Wright, who threw 35 pitches from a mound last week and told Abraham, “I’m throwing two bullpens a week and I’m feeling healthy for the first time since 2016.” Wright was an All-Star that year, but he then faced knee problems, Tommy John surgery, a performance-enhancing drugs suspension and an arrest on domestic violence charges (which led to a 15-game ban) during the ensuing seasons.
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