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Josh Hader

MLBTR Podcast: The Pohlads Aren’t Selling The Twins, Nathaniel Lowe, And Service Time Manipulation

By Darragh McDonald | August 20, 2025 at 10:00am CDT

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The Pohlad family taking the Twins off the market and what that could mean for the club’s future (2:10)
  • Nathaniel Lowe getting released by the Nationals and signing with the Red Sox (18:35)
  • The Astros losing Josh Hader due to a shoulder capsule sprain (29:25)
  • The Phillies losing Zack Wheeler due to a blood clot (32:20)
  • Why late August/September is prospect promotion season (36:00)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Are there some notable relievers who could be on waivers this month? Also, what happens to a player when he is on waivers? (44:55)
  • If I told you that the Dodgers signed Kyle Tucker, would you believe me? (52:40)
  • What’s the craziest out-of-nowhere team to make the playoffs and could a team do it this year? (56:35)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Walk-Year Performances, Roman Anthony’s Extension, And More! – listen here
  • Sifting Through The Trade Deadline Deals – listen here
  • Megapod Trade Deadline Preview – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn, Imagn Images

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Josh Hader Diagnosed With Shoulder Capsule Sprain, Hopes To Return In Playoffs

By Steve Adams | August 16, 2025 at 2:41pm CDT

TODAY: Hader spoke with MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reporters today, and essentially ruled out a regular-season return given the amount of time it would take him to rebuild arm strength after a three-week shutdown.  The closer is hopeful of being ready to pitch by the postseason.

AUGUST 15: The Astros announced that closer Josh Hader has been diagnosed with a capsule sprain in his left shoulder. He won’t throw for three weeks, and next steps for the star left-hander will be determined at that time. Houston placed Hader on the 15-day injured list earlier this week, though manager Joe Espada had already acknowledged prior to today’s announcement that his closer would miss more than two weeks.

Hader’s IL placement was the first injury of his big league career — and it’s a significant one. The ’Stros haven’t said whether surgery will be a consideration, but capsule repair procedures tend to come with considerable layoffs. Brewers righty Brandon Woodruff recently missed more than a year due to surgery to repair a capsule tear. Hader’s teammate, J.P. France, underwent capsule surgery early last July and only began a minor league rehab assignment on July 21 — more than a year later. He still hasn’t returned to a big league mound. On the other side of the coin, Michael Conforto suffered a capsule tear with the Mets late in the 2017 season and was back in the field the following April. That, however, was in his non-throwing shoulder — and the rehab process for an outfielder versus a pitcher will vary with any arm injury.

Obviously, every injury is different. Diagnoses and treatment plans are handled on a case-by-case basis. It’s not clear yet whether the damage in Hader’s shoulder is as significant as it was for Woodruff, France or any of the numerous pitchers who’ve previously undergone capsule procedures — nor is it even clear whether Hader will require surgical intervention at all. The Astros haven’t said one way or another and probably won’t do so until that reevaluation at the three-week checkpoint. Regardless of whether surgery is deemed necessary, Hader seems ticketed for a notable absence.

Right-hander Bryan Abreu got the first save opportunity in Hader’s absence, though Espada has suggested that he’ll take a committee approach to the ninth inning and make his decisions based on matchups rather than set roles. Lefties Steven Okert, Bennett Sousa and Bryan King could all factor into the ninth inning as well, depending on where the Astros are in the opposing lineup.

Even if Hader manages to avoid surgery, losing him for three weeks — likely a bit longer, if he needs a rehab assignment — is a critical blow at a time when the American League West race has tightened considerably. Houston’s once formidable lead has largely evaporated. The red-hot Mariners recently won seven straight games and have picked up a victory in eight of their past ten contests. That, coupled with a recent 2-8 stretch for Houston, has pulled Seattle within a game and a half of first place.

Notably, the two teams still have a series against one another left on the schedule: a three-game set in Houston from Sept. 19-21. The Astros will obviously hope Hader can somehow be ready to contribute at that point, but that feels optimistic based on the initial diagnosis.

Hader is being paid $19MM in the second season of a five-year, $95MM contract. He’s been exceptional this year, saving 28 games and pitching to a pristine 2.05 ERA with a 36.9% strikeout rate and 7.6% walk rate in 52 2/3 innings.

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Houston Astros Newsstand Josh Hader

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Astros Place Josh Hader On Injured List Due To Shoulder Strain

By Steve Adams | August 13, 2025 at 3:10pm CDT

August 13: Espada provided a vague yet ominous update today. Hader is seeking a second opinion on his shoulder and will be on the IL beyond the minimal stint. “This is going to take a little bit longer than the two weeks,” he said, per Brian McTaggart of MLB.com.

August 12, 11:59 pm: Espada says he won’t name a new closer in Hader’s place, suggesting he will instead take a mix-and-match approach to filling the late innings (per Kawahara).

4:14 pm: Espada tells the Astros beat that Hader will receive additional testing (link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). The team has not yet ascertained the severity of the strain and thus do not have a firm timeline on his potential return.

3:15 pm: The Astros announced that closer Josh Hader has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to a left shoulder strain. An immediate timetable for his return was not revealed. Houston recalled lefty Colton Gordon from Triple-A in a corresponding roster move. The Astros also reinstated righty Shawn Dubin from the injured list and opened a roster spot by designating veteran reliever Hector Neris for assignment.

Remarkably, this is the first time Hader has ever been placed on the major league injured list (excepting a brief 2021 placement on the Covid-related IL). He’s not only been one of the sport’s most dominant relievers but also its most durable reliever. Dating back to Hader’s midseason debut in 2017, only Raisel Iglesias (who spent the entire ’17 season in the majors) has more innings pitched. (Somewhat ironically, Neris ranks third among all relievers in innings pitched during that time.) From 2018-25, only two innings separate Iglesias (466 2/3) and Hader (464 2/3) for the MLB lead.

After an up-and-down first year with Houston in 2024, Hader has been back to his typically dominant self in 2025. He’s totaled 52 2/3 innings and worked to a 2.05 earned run average while piling up 28 saves and punching out an outstanding 36.9% of his opponents against a quality 7.6% walk rate. Hader’s sinker is averaging 95.5 mph, down about a half-mile from last season, and he’s throwing his slider more than ever before — at a 41.4% clip. His colossal 21.1% swinging-strike rate is tied with Mason Miller for tops among all big league pitchers — starters and relievers alike — with at least 10 innings pitched this season.

Hader is in the second season of a five-year, $95MM contract he signed as a free agent in the 2023-24 offseason. It’s the second-largest contract ever for a reliever, both in terms of total guarantee and average annual value, trailing only Edwin Diaz (in both regards). That contract pays him an evenly distributed $19MM annually from 2024-28.

As for the 36-year-old Neris, he’s pitched for the Astros, Angels and Braves this year but struggled with all three. The right-hander has pitched a combined 26 2/3 innings with just a 6.75 ERA to show for it. Much of the damage against him came early in the season with Atlanta, but Neris posted a 5.14 with the Angels and is at 5.40 in 11 2/3 frames during what’s been his third stint as a member of the Houston bullpen.

While Neris has never exactly been a flamethrower, this year’s 92.4 mph average four-seamer is a career-low, falling shy of last year’s career-low 93 mph average. The 92.6 mph he’s averaging on his sinker is also a career-low. Neris is generating fewer whiffs, chases and grounders than ever before on his go-to splitter as well.

Since the trade deadline has passed, the Astros’ only course of action with Neris will be to place him on outright waivers or release waivers. They’re effectively the same thing for a player in Neris’ situation at this point, as he has the right to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency anyhow and is quite likely to do so. If another club can get the veteran righty back on track, he’d be postseason-eligible with that new team so long as he was signed prior to Sept. 1.

With Hader on the shelf and Neris off the roster, the Houston bullpen will now look to righty Bryan Abreu as its anchor. He’s the immediate favorite to pick up saves in Hader’s place. Lefties Bryan King, Bennett Sousa and Steven Okert all have a 3.10 ERA or better on the season and figure to collect the majority of setup opportunities while Hader is out.

Since the Astros don’t have another shutdown righty beyond Abreu, it’s at least possible that Abreu could see work in the eighth inning if the Astros’ opponent has a run of tough righties, which would thus leave the ninth inning for one of that trio of lefties. That said, both King and Okert have been terrific against both righties and lefties. That gives manager Joe Espada plenty of options late in the game, but the loss of Hader is nonetheless a crucial blow as Houston tries to fend off a surging Mariners club that has rattled off seven straight wins to pull within one game of the AL West lead.

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Houston Astros Newsstand Transactions Colton Gordon Hector Neris Josh Hader Shawn Dubin

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Josh Hader Undergoing Tests For Shoulder Discomfort

By Mark Polishuk | August 11, 2025 at 10:54pm CDT

The Astros used Enyel De Los Santos and Bennett Sousa in the ninth inning of tonight’s 7-6 win over the Red Sox, which immediately raised eyebrows since closer Josh Hader hadn’t pitched since Friday and was seemingly fresh.  After the game, manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Matt Kawahawa of the Houston Chronicle) that Hader was unavailable due to what Espada described as “discomfort” in Hader’s left shoulder.

Hader was undergoing testing on his shoulder and more will be known once the results of those scans are in, but for now, the Astros and their fans can only hope that the closer has avoided a significant injury.  Losing Hader would be a massive hit to an Astros team trying to stay ahead of the surging Mariners in the AL West race.

Now in his second season of a five-year, $95MM free agent contract, Hader wasn’t quite as dominant as usual in 2024, as a spike in home runs and hard-hit ball rate led to a 3.80 ERA over 71 innings.  Things have been more normal this year, as Hader has a 2.05 ERA over 52 2/3 innings, and posted a set of impressive Statcast metrics to go along with his sparkling ERA.  Hader’s 7.8% walk rate is noteworthy, as it represents his first above-average number in that category since the 2019 season.  As always, Hader is generating a ridiculous amount of swing-and-miss, sitting in the 99th percentile of all pitchers in strikeout, whiff, and chase rates.

In his previous game on Friday, Hader threw a season-high 36 pitches over two innings of work, getting the win in the Astros’ ten-inning 5-3 result over the Yankees.  He has topped the 30-pitch threshold just four times in 48 games this season, and only seven times pitched more than a single inning.  With this in mind, it could be that Hader is just a little sore in the aftermath of that longer outing in New York, and needs a bit more recovery time.

Houston’s pen is deep enough in quality arms that the club should be able to withstand a brief absence for Hader, as any of Sousa, Steven Okert, Bryan King, or Bryan Abreu could step into the closer’s role.  The Astros have had one of the best bullpens in baseball this year, though obviously Hader has been a big factor in the relief corps’ excellence.

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Houston Astros Josh Hader

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Astros Notes: McCormick, Javier, Urquidy, Hader

By Anthony Franco | May 1, 2024 at 7:11pm CDT

The Astros placed Chas McCormick on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to April 28, before tonight’s matchup with the Guardians. The outfielder is dealing with right hamstring discomfort. Infielder Jacob Amaya was recalled in his place, while the Astros also brought up Trey Cabbage (a move first reported by Ari Alexander of KPRC 2) to take the spot vacated when they optioned José Abreu last night.

McCormick had a tough first month of the season. The typically steady left fielder is out to a .236/.325/.278 slash through 83 plate appearances. He still has yet to hit a home run after connecting on a career-high 22 longballs a season ago. McCormick had been an above-average hitter in each of his first three campaigns. Last year’s .273/.353/.489 line was the best work of his career.

His effort to get on track will be put on pause by the hamstring issue, although there’s nothing to suggest he’s facing a long-term absence. Joey Loperfido has gotten the nod in left field for the past two nights. The rookie could be in line for regular playing time on the grass after hitting 13 homers in 25 games for Triple-A Sugar Land. Loperfido could also pick up first base reps as the Astros rotate through options to replace Abreu. Jon Singleton has gotten the nod at that position in each of the last two games.

McCormick and utility infielder Grae Kessinger are Houston’s only position players on the IL. They haven’t been nearly as fortunate on the pitching side. Most of their rotation has spent time on the injured list at some point. Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are still a ways away in their rehabs from arm surgeries, while José Urquidy and Cristian Javier are on the 15-day IL.

Houston released encouraging updates on the latter two right-handers this afternoon. Manager Joe Espada told reporters (including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) that the Astros might reinstate Javier to start Sunday’s matchup with the Mariners. Javier has been out since April 18 with neck discomfort, so he could make it back not long after the 15-day minimum if things go well in the next few days.

Urquidy has been battling a longer-term ailment. He reported elbow pain in Spring Training and was eventually diagnosed with a forearm strain. Urquidy has been on the IL for the entire season but could be nearing a rehab stint. Espada indicated that the 29-year-old threw 30 pitches in a live batting practice session today (X link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). If Urquidy gets through one more session without issue, he could report to a minor league affiliate to build into game shape.

In a rare Astros pitching development not related to injury, Espada tabbed star closer Josh Hader for a two-inning stint in yesterday’s extra-inning win over the Guards. The Astros called on Hader to keep the game tied in the top of the ninth. When both teams failed to score, they sent him back out for the tenth. He allowed the automatic runner to score but got credited for the win when Victor Caratini popped a two-out walk-off homer in the bottom half.

That was not just Hader’s first multi-inning appearance of the season. It was the first time he’d worked more than one inning in a regular season game since 2020; he hadn’t completed two full innings since 2019 when he was a member of the Brewers. As he became more established, Hader had been vocal about not wanting to work more than one inning.

The five-time All-Star indicated that’s no longer the case now that he has secured a five-year, $95MM free agent contract. Hader told the Houston beat that his expectation for 2024 is “to be available for multiple innings” (link via The Houston Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara). The southpaw contrasted that to the past few seasons when he was going through the arbitration system and didn’t have long-term financial security. Those comments may not sit well with the Milwaukee or San Diego fanbases, but it’s a nice boost for the Astros.

Hader has had some uncharacteristic struggles in his first month in Houston. He has allowed 10 runs (nine earned) through his first 12 2/3 innings. Hader has recorded 21 strikeouts behind a huge 16% swinging strike rate, though, so he should find more consistency as the season goes along. The back of the bullpen has been a surprising disappointment thus far. Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly have also scuffled, contributing to Houston’s 10-19 start.

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Houston Astros Notes Chas McCormick Cristian Javier Jose Urquidy Josh Hader

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Yankees, Dodgers Had Interest In Josh Hader Prior To Astros Deal

By Nick Deeds | February 10, 2024 at 5:26pm CDT

New Astros relief ace Josh Hader made an appearance on Foul Territory earlier this week during which he discussed his free agency and some of the other teams that pursued him prior to him signing in Houston on a five-year deal last month. Among those teams, Hader noted, were the Dodgers and Yankees. Hader went on to indicate that while those clubs weren’t the only ones to express interest in him throughout the offseason, no other suitor matched the aggressiveness of the Astros, whose $95MM offer broke the record for present-day value for a relief pitcher.

It’s hardly a shock that the Dodgers and Yankees both checked in on the 29-year-old hurler this winter. A five-time All Star and three-time NL Reliever of the Year winner, Hader broke into the majors with the Brewers in 2017 and posted a dominant 2.08 ERA across 47 2/3 innings of work during that rookie campaign. The lefty hasn’t looked back since and has posted an incredible 2.50 ERA and 2.73 FIP while collecting 165 saves across 349 appearances during his career. Hader leads all relievers with an incredible 42.2% strikeout rate since his career began back in 2017, and is coming off an otherworldly platform season where he posted a microscopic 1.28 ERA in 61 appearances.

Both clubs were known to be interested in adding relief help this winter and certainly had the financial resources available to get a deal done, though they ultimately opted to look elsewhere rather than offer Hader the sort of nine-figure deal that would’ve topped Houston’s offer. Hader’s deal with the Astros served as a catalyst for the rest of the high-leverage relief market, and upwards of a dozen bullpen arms with late-inning experience have come off the market since then including the likes of Robert Stephenson, Aroldis Chapman, and David Robertson. In that frenzy of activity, the Dodgers came away with right-hander Ryan Brasier, who dominated to a 0.70 ERA in 39 appearances with the club last year. Meanwhile, the Yankees swung a deal to acquire southpaw Caleb Ferguson from L.A. on the same day the Dodgers landed Brasier.

Both Brasier and Ferguson are quality arms with plenty of late-inning experience under their belts, though neither has the sort of pedigree offered by Hader. While it’s not impossible to imagine either club making another addition to their relief mix before Opening Day, the surefire options still available in free agency are somewhat few and far between. Former Astros right-hander Ryne Stanek is among the options remaining and sports a solid 2.90 ERA over the last three seasons, though the market is largely dominated by bounceback candidates such as Brad Hand and Mychal Givens at this stage of the offseason.

Should either the Dodgers or Yankees decide to further bolster their relief corps in the coming weeks, one possible option who still lingers on the market would be Red Sox closer Kenley Jansen, who the club has reportedly shown a willingness to shop this winter. The Dodgers were connected to Jansen, who spent the first twelve seasons of his career with the club before signing with the Braves prior to the 2022 season, earlier in the offseason. The same can’t be said of the Yankees, though it is worth pointing out that the longtime AL East rivals have shown an increased willingness to trade with each other in recent years, including a deal that sent Alex Verdugo to the Bronx earlier this winter. As a 14-year MLB veteran with 420 career saves and a 3.63 ERA across 51 appearances in Boston last year, Jansen would provide an upgrade to the relief mix of either club, though he’s owed a hefty $16MM in the final year of his contract this season.

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Los Angeles Dodgers New York Yankees Josh Hader

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MLBTR Podcast: The Broadcasting Landscape, Josh Hader and the Relief Market

By Darragh McDonald | January 24, 2024 at 11:59pm CDT

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • The RSN model for MLB clubs (1:00)
  • The latest details on the Diamond Sports Group bankruptcy (4:05)
  • The Astros signed Josh Hader (12:35)
  • The Angels signed Robert Stephenson (19:05)
  • The Pirates signed Aroldis Chapman (21:50)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Does J.D. Martinez make sense for the Angels? (24:30)
  • With the Mets in rebuild/retooling mode and the Mariners in need of another infield bat (and a surplus of controllable young arms), is there a trade there? (27:55)
  • How odd is it that we are this late in January and have several players likely to get multi-year deals? (31:55)

Check out our past episodes!

  • The Cubs’ Activity, Marcus Stroman And Jordan Hicks – listen here
  • Teoscar Hernández Signs With L.A. And The Move-Making Mariners and Rays – listen here
  • Yoshi Yamamoto Fallout, the Chris Sale/Vaughn Grissom Trade and Transaction Roundup – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

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Diamond Sports Group Houston Astros Los Angeles Angels MLB Trade Rumors Podcast New York Mets Pittsburgh Pirates Seattle Mariners Aroldis Chapman J.D. Martinez Josh Hader Robert Stephenson

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Astros Notes: Extensions, Hader, Pressly, McCullers

By Nick Deeds | January 20, 2024 at 4:19pm CDT

While the Astros prepare for the 2024 season, star infielders Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are headed into the final years of their contracts, with free agency looming next winter. As relayed by The Athletic’s Chandler Rome, Houston GM Dana Brown recently made clear that the club has not had extension discussions with either player this winter. The same goes for outfielder Kyle Tucker, who Rome adds recently indicated that he and the club did not discuss a long-term extension before agreeing to a $12MM salary for the 2024 season to avoid arbitration earlier this month. This winter marked Tucker’s penultimate trip through arbitration, and he’ll be eligible for free agency following the 2025 season.

That the team has not yet broached possible extension talks with any of the aforementioned trio is something of a surprise. Houston has leaned heavily on extensions to keep its core together since the team first returned to contention back in 2015. Over the past six years, the Astos have handed out extensions to Altuve, Bregman, Ryan Pressly (in both 2019 and 2022), Justin Verlander, Yordan Alvarez, Cristian Javier, and Lance McCullers Jr. that extended the team’s window of control over each player.

With that being said, it’s worth noting that an unusually slow offseason has left the baseball world still in the thick of free agency, which could serve as a complicating factor in potential extension talks. Such discussions, particularly those for players like Altuve and Bregman who are not under control via arbitration, are often held once Spring Training begins. Last spring, Astros brass expressed a desire to work out deals with each of Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, Javier, and Framber Valdez, though the aforementioned Javier extension was the only one that ultimately got done. While it’s certainly possible that any of the trio could begin extension negotiations with the club after reporting to camp next month, each is a multi-time All Star coming off a strong season at the plate and could prove expensive to lock in long-term when free agency is just over the horizon.

More notes from Houston…

  • Now that the Astros have agreed to a five-year deal to bring star closer Josh Hader to Houston it seems as though Pressly, who has served as the club’s closer in each of the past four seasons, may be moving out of that role. Rome notes, however, that both Brown and manager Joe Espada discussed the situation with the 35-year-old veteran in the days leading up to their agreement with Hader. Each said that the conversation with Pressly went well, adding that he’s “all in” for his new role in the club’s bullpen as a premiere set-up option to Hader alongside youngster Bryan Abreu. Pressly posted a solid 3.58 ERA and 3.36 FIP while striking out 27.6% of batters faced last season, while Abreu dominated opposing hitters with a 34.8% strikeout rate and a 1.75 ERA in 72 appearances. Adding Hader to the mix figures to give Houston perhaps the most fearsome back-end trio in any bullpen around the league entering the 2024 campaign.
  • Rome also relayed an update on the status of McCullers, who underwent flexor tendon surgery back in June. McCullers has progressed to the point of throwing off flat ground from 80 feet away and noted that he’s feeling good, though when asked about his timetable for return suggested that a feasible timeline could involve him returning sometime during the late summer. With three years remaining on the contract extension the righty signed prior to the 2021 season, the deal hasn’t gone how either side was hoping to this point. While he’s pitched to a strong 3.16 ERA and 3.55 FIP with a 26.3% strikeout rate since the ink dried on the pact, he’s made just 47 starts across the past three seasons and appears ticketed for another season spent primarily on the shelf in 2024. Until McCullers returns to action, the club figures to rely on some combination of Jose Urquidy, Hunter Brown, and J.P. France to fill out the rotation alongside Verlander, Valdez, and Javier.
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Houston Astros Notes Alex Bregman Jose Altuve Josh Hader Kyle Tucker Lance McCullers Jr. Ryan Pressly

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Astros Sign Josh Hader To Five-Year Contract

By Darragh McDonald and Leo Morgenstern | January 19, 2024 at 11:59pm CDT

The Astros announced they have signed left-hander Josh Hader. It is reportedly a five-year, $95MM contract. The deal has no deferrals, which makes it the largest contract ever given to a relief pitcher in terms of present-day value. Edwin Díaz signed a $102MM deal with the Mets prior to last season, setting a new benchmark for a reliever, but there was some deferred money that dropped the present-day value and competitive balance tax calculation to around $93MM.

Josh Hader | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY SportsHader, a CAA Sports client, will earn $19MM annually through the 2028 season. The southpaw can also collect an additional $1MM bonus for winning the Reliever of the Year Award, an honor he has already received three times in his career. The deal contains a full no-trade clause and no options, team or player alike.

On Thursday, Rome and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported the Astros were “making a push” to sign the five-time All-Star. It came as little surprise that GM Dana Brown was looking to supplement a bullpen that lost several key players to free agency, namely Héctor Neris, Phil Maton, and Ryne Stanek. In addition, 2023 trade deadline acquisition Kendall Graveman is likely to miss the entire 2024 season after undergoing shoulder surgery. That said, Brown recently downplayed his desire to add another reliever. After the news broke of Graveman’s surgery, the GM told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com that the Astros were “still in the market for relievers,” but also said, “We got some internal candidates that we really feel good about.” In a similar vein, he told Rome, “We just may have to get one more body or one of our guys internally will step up.”

On top of that, Brown told reporters during the GM Meetings in November that he didn’t have “a ton” of payroll flexibility to work with. Thus, Astros fans began to brace themselves for a slow offseason, and rumors even began to emerge that the team could trade All-Stars Alex Bregman and Framber Valdez

In hindsight, the executive was clearly keeping his cards close to his chest. After all, signing the top reliever on the market to a record-breaking contract is just about the complete opposite of tightening the purse strings and hoping an internal candidate steps up. Indeed, Hader’s salary brings the Astros over the first luxury tax threshold and dangerously close to the second; according to Roster Resource, their CBT payroll sits at $254.6MM, less than $3MM away from the $257MM threshold. Houston has never paid the luxury tax before, although the team crossed the threshold in 2020 when there were no penalties for doing so.

Because Hader rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres, the Astros will lose their second-highest pick in the upcoming draft, as well as $500,000 in international bonus pool money. However, the extra penalties they could face as Competitive Balance Tax payors won’t kick in until next offseason; if the Astros remain over the CBT threshold throughout 2024 and sign another QO free agent next winter, they will forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft picks, as well as $1 million in international bonus pool money.

The Astros don’t usually sign free agents with qualifying offers attached to them, just as they don’t usually exceed the CBT threshold. To that end, they don’t often sign $95MM deals. As Rome points out on X, this is the largest free agent contract the club has signed in Jim Crane’s 12-year tenure as owner of the Astros. Evidently, then, Crane and Brown have high hopes for what Hader can bring to the bullpen – and for good reason. The left-hander has long been one of the top relievers in the game. Across seven MLB seasons with the Brewers and Padres, he boasts a 2.50 ERA, 2.27 SIERA, and 165 saves in 190 chances. Since his debut in 2017, no pitcher (min. 5 IP) has struck out batters at a higher rate.

Hader, who turns 30 this April, looked as dominant as ever in 2023, ranking second among qualified NL relievers with a 1.28 ERA. Meanwhile, his Statcast expected ERA ranked third in all of baseball. What’s more, he recorded 33 saves in 61 games, crossing the 30-save threshold for the fourth time in his career. With a hard sinker and mystifying slider, he recorded 85 strikeouts in 56 1/3 innings of work.

The presumptive closer will join right-handers Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu at the back of what could be the scariest bullpen in the American League. The Astros ranked fourth in the AL in bullpen ERA last season and first from the trade deadline through the end of the year. Although Houston has parted ways with several key contributors this winter, adding Hader goes a long way toward replenishing what was lost. The three departing relievers, plus Graveman, provided the Astros with 1.4 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) last season, per FanGraphs. Hader alone was worth 1.7 WAR in 2023 and has averaged 1.94 WAR per 60 games throughout his career. While he cannot cover the workload of four separate pitchers all on his own, he should provide his team with 50-60 valuable innings in the most high-leverage spots. The Astros could still use some more depth to fill out the bullpen, but their back-end trio of Hader, Pressly, and Abreu might be the best one-two-three punch in the game.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the two sides were in agreement on a five-year, $95MM deal with no deferrals. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first relayed the even $19MM salaries, no-trade clause and award bonus. Joel Sherman of The New York Post relayed the $1MM value of that bonus. Chandler Rome of The Athletic reported the lack of options or opt-outs.

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Astros “Making A Push” To Sign Josh Hader

By Darragh McDonald | January 18, 2024 at 11:50pm CDT

The Astros are “making a push” to sign left-hander Josh Hader, per a report from Chandler Rome and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The southpaw is represented by CAA Sports.

It hasn’t yet been reported what kind of contract discussions are taking place between the club and Hader’s representatives, but it will undoubtedly involve significant numbers. It was reported earlier this month that Hader was aiming to set a new benchmark for relievers by surpassing the Edwin Díaz deal from just over a year ago. Díaz re-signed with the Mets for $102MM over five years, though deferrals dropped the competitive balance tax value to $93MM. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted that Hader could indeed set a new record by getting to $110MM over six years.

Those hefty proposals are a reflection of Hader’s incredible work to this point in his career. Over 349 career appearances dating back to his 2017 debut, he has allowed just 2.50 earned runs per nine innings. His 10.2% walk rate is a tad high, but he has punched out 42.2% of batters that have stepped into the box against him. That included a strange blip in 2022 when his ERA jumped to 5.22, but the peripherals were still strong and he righted the ship last year, getting that ERA all the way down to 1.28.

The vast majority of that work has come as a closer, with Hader having racked up at least 33 saves in each of the past four full seasons, as well as 13 in the shortened 2020 campaign. These kinds of elite closers don’t grow on trees. That 42.2% strikeout rate over the past seven years is the highest in baseball among those with at least five innings pitched. Díaz has punched out 40.3% of opponents in his career, though with a better walk rate than Hader and more ground balls.

If the Astros end up sealing the deal with Hader, the details will come out and we will find out how the deal compares to the one Díaz signed with the Mets. It hasn’t been a secret that Houston has been looking to upgrade its bullpen, but it is at least a bit surprising to see them going after the top available free agent. The club has only once pushed their payroll into competitive balance tax territory, and that was in the shortened 2020 season when MLB suspended the tax system amid the pandemic.

That means the franchise still technically hasn’t “paid” the tax, but it seems as though 2024 may be the year. Roster Resource currently estimates that the club’s CBT number is just over $236MM, with this year’s base threshold set for $237MM. That means that adding essentially any money at all would push them over the line. If Hader were to secure the six-year, $110MM deal that MLBTR predicted, that would come with a CBT hit of $18.33MM.

The fact that the club may be willing to finally step onto the other side of that line is perhaps a reflection of their bullpen situation. They lost each of Héctor Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek to free agency at the end of last year, subtracting three notable arms from their relief mix. General manager Dana Brown has frequently spoken about the need for bullpen upgrades this winter, and the situation got even worse with the recent news that Kendall Graveman will miss the entire 2024 campaign after undergoing shoulder surgery.

The club still has Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu as a strong foundation in the bullpen, but there’s plenty of uncertainty beyond those two. Rafael Montero parlayed a strong 2022 into a three-year, $34.5MM deal with Houston but then posted an ERA of 5.08 last year. Other than swingman Brandon Bielak, they don’t have any other relievers with two years of major league service time.

This week, Brown maintained that the club’s bullpen plans wouldn’t “intensify” due to the Graveman news, but perhaps it has inspired owner Jim Crane to push beyond his usual limits in order to address the relief corps. One pitcher wouldn’t eliminate the concerns around the overall depth, but the trio of Hader, Pressly and Abreu would be one of the most dominant late-inning groups in the sport.

Of course, it’s also possible the club could look to move some other contracts around in order to limbo back under the line, but that would come with its own challenges. There had been some speculation earlier this winter that Framber Valdez could be available for financial reasons, but that seemed to be a bit of wishful thinking coming from rival clubs as opposed to the Astros genuinely looking to move him. The lefty is going to make $12.1MM this year, and has one more season of arbitration control remaining, but trading him would open up a big hole in the rotation that is already going to start the season without Luis García and Lance McCullers Jr. due to injuries.

Beyond Valdez, Graveman has a CBT hit of $8MM but would be hard to move since he’s going to miss the entire season and then become a free agent. Houston would have to include some other talent, likely prospects, in order to make it worth it for another club to take that contract on. McCullers has a CBT hit of $17MM but similar logic would apply. His deal runs through 2026 but his significant health issues in his career and especially in recent years might make it hard for a deal to come together. Montero’s $11.5MM CBT hit over the next two seasons won’t be easily jettisoned after this down year.

Of course, all this is speculative under a deal with Hader is actually completed. There are still no details of what is being discussed or if it’s close to being completed. He has also received reported interest from the Orioles, while clubs like the Yankees, Rangers and Dodgers have been mentioned as speculative fits. Hader rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres so any signing club, whether it’s the Astros or someone else, will be subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly a loss of international bonus pool money as well.

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Houston Astros Josh Hader

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