The Twins have gotten calls on their left-handed hitting outfielders, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey told the beat this evening (relayed by Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com). Falvey suggested the front office is willing to consider offers but unsurprisingly said the club would have “a high bar” to clear to move any of those players.
Minnesota’s left-handed outfield depth has been a subject of some attention dating back to the offseason. Minnesota didn’t pull the trigger on a deal over the winter, though, instead carrying five lefty-swinging outfielders (plus first baseman/corner outfielder Alex Kirilloff) on the 40-man roster. Nick Gordon has been out for a couple months after breaking his right shin but the rest of the group remains.
Max Kepler, Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner stand as the most viable possibilities for a deal. Kepler is in the final guaranteed season of his contract. He’s making $8.5MM, while the club holds a $10MM option for next year. The 30-year-old has a league average .230/.295/.439 batting line over 75 contests on the season. He’s been on a tear of late, though, hitting .299/.351/.493 since the start of July.
Larnach and Wallner are less established but more affordable younger players. Larnach is a former first-round pick and top prospect who hasn’t found his stride in parts of three MLB campaigns. He’s a career .223/.315/.379 hitter. Larnach has plus exit velocities and solid grades for his defense at both corner outfield spots. Swing-and-miss has been the big concern, as he’s gone down on strikes in over a third of his plate appearances. The Twins have bounced him on and off the active roster this season. He’s hitting .213/.311/.400 in the majors and .230/.351/.467 in a very hitter-friendly Triple-A setting.
Wallner, 25, only has 37 big league games under his belt. That’s in large part thanks to the Twins’ outfield surplus, as he’s acquitted himself well in that limited look. The Southern Miss product carries a .250/.370/.390 batting line at the MLB level and has mashed at a .291/.403/.524 clip through 67 games in Triple-A this season. Prospect evaluators have raised concerns about his range in the outfield, although he has elite arm strength.
Minnesota doesn’t have to move anyone in the group, of course. The Twins lead the AL Central by four games. If they did seriously consider dealing any of that trio, it stands to reason they’d want MLB help in another area of the roster.
The rest of the Twins’ outfield options seem unlikely to move. Kirilloff has taken over as the everyday first baseman and is hitting .282/.371/.465 in 66 games. There’s little reason for Minnesota to consider dealing him. They’d probably be hard-pressed to find much interest in Joey Gallo, who is playing the season on an $11MM free agent deal. Gallo got off to a scorching start in the Twin Cities but is hitting .149/.237/.391 while striking out in almost half his plate appearances since the start of June, bringing his overall batting line to .176/.295/.452. Gordon’s injury takes him out of the equation, while the switch-hitting Willi Castro frequently draws into the lineup against left-handed pitching as a utility option.
Interestingly, the outfield isn’t the only area of the roster in which Minnesota has apparently given some thought to dealing from its depth. Britt Ghiroli of the Athletic reports the Twins had given some thought to dealing Kenta Maeda earlier in the season. That would’ve presumably been to make way for Dallas Keuchel in the starting rotation, as the former Cy Young winner is having a strong year in Triple-A after signing a minor league deal.
It doesn’t seem that’s likely at this point. Maeda has been excellent in six starts since returning from a triceps issue. The veteran righty has worked to a 2.48 ERA with a massive 34.4% strikeout rate in 32 2/3 innings. Relinquishing that kind of production while the team tries to hold onto a division title would probably be too risky. Keuchel forewent an opportunity to opt out of his deal last week but can do so again on Tuesday. Ghiroli reports that he’d be guaranteed a prorated $2.05MM base salary if Minnesota calls him up. The Twins could bring him up for a multi-inning role out of the bullpen if they don’t feel there’s room in the starting staff at present.
Whether you hit lefty or righty, if you can hit, you can hit.
The analytics crowd have stunted the growth of many a young player as the platoon thing got out of control.
When they started doing that baloney in the minors and messing with the young kids, that’s when it went too far.
Old man yells @ cloud.
Give me doesn’t understand analytics for 400 Alex.
Why don’t the Twins just let Buxton play baseball.
I understand analytics fine. I understand ballplayers better. These are human beings, after all, not rotisserie players or video dudes in The Show.
You don’t understand analytics at all.
Players are not cells in a spreadsheet, yet. There are a lot of factors which are not considered in the statistics we have available. Sporadic vs. regular playing time can make a huge difference in how players perform at the plate, for example. Platoons also take away growth opportunities to improve where players are lacking.
Analytics can only provide direction when there are good statistics to analyze. Analyzing incomplete data can result in decisions which are worse than if you had no data at all.
Trevor Larnach is a very nice player that could develop into a star if the right organization got ahold of him.
Astros. Rays. Phillies to replace Schwarber in LF by 2025. Quite possibly the Giants.
The Twins won’t develop him properly, but they also won’t trade him for a reasonable return until his career is too far gone. That’s the MO of the current administration.
Larnach is a AAAA talent. Can’t hit breaking or offspeed stuff at the MLB level. He’s the only player in MLB who had worse contact and performance against those pitches than Miguel Sano.
Why did they hold onto all these outfielders? At least we were now reaffirmed that Joey Gallo is not very good and it wasn’t just NY.
Because no one wants Max Kepler.
Seriously, though, several of them play infield as well. Gallo and Kiriloff both get plenty of reps at first. Gordon and Castro are utility guys. Rocco could conceivably put together a lineup with 7 “outfielders”.
Why anyone throws Gallo a fastball is beyond me. He can’t hit anything else.
Don’t tell the people that preach about batting average being meaningless that Joey Gallo isn’t good. They’ll be angry at you.
They kept them all because they didn’t have much choice.
Larnach and Kirilloff have never been healthy until this year, both facing on and off hand/wrist injuries. They are still working their way back to the power that got them drafted years ago. Wallner is a local kid that swings really hard and either strikes out or clubs HR at high rates. That’s part of why the team signed Gallo: they didn’t have any established options in LF or 1b going into this year. Kepler people just love because he hit some HR one season and plays good RF defense. In reality he’s only a Meh hitter and he sulks when he’s asked to play CF and you can find below average hitters who can play RF for less than $8-10m.
Gallo was signed to replace Kepler, only the Twins failed to anticipate no teams had an interest in Kepler so the Twins were unable to move him.
Buxton is on a 7 year contract with a no trade clause, but before the season started, the Twins knew he probably wouldn’t be able to play outfield this year.
After learning of Buxton’s continued knee problems, the Twins scooped up Michael A. Taylor to cover center field since the Twins lacked confidence in Celestino and Gordon as starters in CF.
Trevor Larnach has struggled mightily to hit anything other than fastballs or curveballs, but the Twins put him on the opening day roster as he’s running out of options, forcing Matt Wallner to stay in AAA.
Max Kepler wasn’t expected to be with the Twins this year. When the Twins signed Gallo, it was a foregone conclusion they were going to move Kepler, only the Twins failed to anticipate tepid market interest.
Gilberto Celestino was probably the UO the Twins expected to be using the most this year; however, he tore his thumb and required surgery in Spring Training so he missed a few months.
Nick Gordon was viewed as a utility infielder/outfielder option to cover for oft injured players, especially since Royce Lewis wasn’t going to be ready for the first couple of months. Unfortunately, a hard ball impact broke his shin and he’s missed a couple months after an extremely slow start. I expect him to be non-tendered.
Matt Wallner has the speed to cover center field, but absolutely abysmal instincts. His jump is poor and his route running is downright amateur level. Wallner has plenty of options, but it remains to be seen if he can make enough contact or learn how to play defense well enough to stay in the big show.
Basically, the Twins have a lot of “B” tier talent in the outfield. Not one single player on the list had a good chance of being a good every day starter in the outfield. A combination of injuries, poor performance and poor foresight produced a surplus and roster crunch.
Boras will probably find a team that will give Gallo a multi year deal.
Twins had a surplus of OFs last winter and STILL added more, so for whatever reason they’re not likely to trade any of them by the deadline. The part of this article I found alarming is the statement that .230 is league average BA. That would easily be the lowest in MLB history. Next lowest would be the .237 mark set in 1968. I know there are a lot of factors involved, but in my opinion the biggest culprit is the acceptance of high K rates.
@solaris602 I guess that basically shows that getting rid of the shift was pointless. These guys need to learn to hit the other way, they are major league hitters
LIMITING (not eliminating) the shift was meant to address BABIP, and it maybe has helped. Median BABIP for qualified hitters, and median for all hitters
2023 = .302 and .291
2022 = .295 and .285
Actual batting average decline has to do with the ever increasing strikeout rates. Infield shifts don’t matter if guys can’t hit the ball to begin with. Median K rate for qualified hitters:
2023 = 20.8%
2022 = 18.9%
“The part of this article I found alarming is the statement that .230 is league average BA.”
solaris602;
Golly, I thought with the shifts gone….
In 2 years .230 wll look good.
Meanwhile, we have teams that are contending for a playoff spot this year with 2 reliable (not necessarily great) starting pitchers. TJ surgery is no longer an epidemic, it’s accepted as normal. There are injuries and callup’s/send downs of pitchers multiple times a week by all teams, as teams go through over 30 pitchers a season.
Buutttt……
Each park has loud music pumped in, giant video screens to watch, gourmet food, games to play (for more money) in the concourses, and is basically an amusement park. Very few notice the low BA’s, the endless foul balls, and the lack of balls being put in play. Most fans follow the sport looking at the statistics and watching the highlights. Few Americans have played the game for 2-3 generations now and understand the game – which is why more and more of the players are coming from other countries.
P.S. Wrigley Field is sort of an anomaly.
Power arms in the bullpens and shorter starts. That equals more whiffs.
Has to be the most mediocre team ever, 6 outfielders who are all 3rd or 4th outfielders and 6 starting pitchers who are all 3rd or 4th starters.
The Twins’ starting pitching:
1st in MLB in batting average against
1st in strikeouts
1st in innings pitched
3rd in ERA
2nd in WHIP
And …I believe for the month of July, the Twins lineup has been one of THE most explosive offenses in MLB. I know its only been a couple weeks but the Twins Offense has been baseball’s best coming out of the AS break.
They walloped my Mariners Pitching Staff in the 7g they played over the last 2 weeks
AL batting average is .246. NL batting average is .250. Banning the shift has helped.