11:53am: The Sox and Rays are indeed discussing Lynn, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets, but a deal between the two parties is not yet seen as imminent. The Rays have interest in a number of starters and are in active talks on multiple starting pitchers.
Likewise, the White Sox aren’t locked in on the Rays alone as a potential trade partner for Lynn. Nightengale follows up by tweeting that the Dodgers remain interested in both Lynn and right-hander Lucas Giolito and continue to discuss both with the ChiSox.
With Dustin May out for the season and each of Clayton Kershaw, Ryan Pepiot, Noah Syndergaard and Walker Buehler on the injured list, the Dodgers have a trio of rookies (Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove) behind Julio Urias and Tony Gonsolin in the rotation at the moment. All of the Dodgers’ Opening Day rotation members have been on the injured list at some point this season, so it’s only natural for them to explore upgrades — particularly as their collection of young starters continues to push their workloads to previously unreached levels.
9:49am: The White Sox and Rays are in active discussions on a trade regarding right-hander Lance Lynn, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The two teams have been exchanging names of potential minor leaguers in the swap.
Tampa Bay is one of the 10 teams on Lynn’s no-trade list, but talks have apparently advanced to the point where the White Sox have already approached him about the possibility of approving the deal. Nightengale adds that Lynn has informed the team he would waive that no-trade protection for a chance to pitch for a contending Rays club.
Lynn, 36, is in the second season of a two-year, $38MM extension he signed with the White Sox two years ago. The veteran right-hander was a durable an excellent pitcher for the Rangers and ChiSox from 2019-22, pitching to a combined 3.42 ERA with plus strikeout and walk rates in 571 innings during that time, but the 2023 season has been a struggle.
While Lynn is still missing bats at a high level (27.3% strikeout rate, 14% swinging-strike rate), he’s been more homer-prone this season that any point in his lengthy Major League career. The 6’5″ righty has yielded an average of 2.19 homers per nine innings pitched, which has contributed to what would be a career-worst 6.18 ERA on the season.
That mark is unsightly, of course, but Lynn has seen what’s surely an anomalous 21.5% of his fly-balls turn into home runs. That’s more than double his 10.1% career mark and nearly nine percentage points higher than the league average of 12.4%. Homer-to-flyball rate tends to stabilize over larger samples, and any team acquiring Lynn would surely be hoping there’s regression in that regard. That seems inevitable; Lynn’s current 21.5% homer-to-flyball rate would be the fourth-highest mark of any pitcher in the past decade. Furthermore, one can imagine that getting out of the homer-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field would help to alleviate those home run woes.
The Rays didn’t look like a team that’d need to acquire outside help for the rotation early in the year. Tampa Bay began the season in dominant fashion, but the Rays have seen Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery) and Drew Rasmussen (flexor surgery) go down with season-ending injuries. Depth starter Josh Fleming is on the 60-day IL due to an elbow issue.
At present, the Rays are running out a strong quartet of Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Zach Eflin and top prospect Taj Bradley. Lynn would slot into that group and give the Rays an upside play for the final spot in the rotation. At worst, he’d be a durable innings eater who could spare the bullpen and round out the rotation. At best, he could become the Rays’ latest pitching reclamation. Tampa Bay has a reputation for getting the best out of its pitchers — thanks to a combination of its renowned analytics department, advance scouting, coaching and player development — and if the Rays can get Lynn back into his 2019-22 form, he’d be a bona fide playoff-caliber starter.
Lynn’s contract contains an $18MM option for the 2024 season. There’s a $1MM buyout on that provision, making it a net $17MM decision. As it stands, he’s clearly trending toward a buyout, but with a big finish to the season it’s conceivable he could yet play his way into having that option picked up.
That’d be a steep price for the Rays of all teams, but Tampa Bay has shown increased willingness to spend in recent years. The Rays made a legitimate run at signing Freddie Freeman in free agency, reportedly putting forth a six-year offer in the $150MM range. They also extended Glasnow on a deal that’ll pay him $25MM next year and signed shortstop Wander Franco to an 11-year, $182MM deal. Even this past offseason’s signing of Eflin at three years and $40MM was a notable departure from the team’s typical stinginess on the open market.
Lynn is owed about $6.8MM of this year’s $18.5MM salary between now and the end of the season, plus at least that $1MM buyout on the option. Between that salary and his struggles with home runs, his trade value certainly isn’t close to where it might’ve been entering the season, but the Sox could sweeten their return by offering to pay down some or all of the remaining money he’s guaranteed in 2023.
ugh i cringe at it
Lynn can still sling strikeouts. I’d take him if the cost wasn’t ridiculously high
But 2.2 HR/9 is brutal!
Are we still acting like the Rays dont get the most out of their dudes?
But aren’t trading for his performance from April until now. His career number is much lower than his outlier of the 1st half of 2022.
Brixton… yep… apparently? Only Nelson Cruz and Tsutugo were player that have failed there
Also (probably) unsustainable.
The “dude” has to have something to build on….Lynn sucks!
It doesn’t matter what he’s done in the past. He’s gotten older (and heavier). What matters is what you’ll get going forward.
As he is only 4th highest, he is now in the range of possibilities. Its happened before.
Now, now, Rocky 7. Ray’s fans will be on the edge of their seats as they watch Lynn set the all-time record for HRs allowed. A better place for him to go is Baltimore, where not all of the deep fly balls he gives up will leave the yard.
Lynn’s career postseason numbers are pretty miserable though: 5.28 ERA, 1.638 WHIP, 4.7BB/9 and remove his first season (5G, 5IP, 0 ER) from that and they get even worse…. so I guess if you need someone to soak innings during a coast to the playoffs….
…and Renfroe….and Pat Burrell
Oh I’d love for the Cardinals to trade for Lynn.
@dogbone they’re on the no trade list and he wants to win
A former cardinal that has the cardinals on his no trade list tells you everything you need to know about that dysfunctional organization
Dog one: Don’t the Cards have enough pitching problems as it is?
slider—i can guarantee you that the cardinals are on the no trade for exactly the opposite reason you are thinking. If you look at the no trade list he has almost all of them are teams that were contenders last season and/or were expected to be contenders this season.
Players with a limited number of teams allowed on a no trade list almost always only list contenders or contenders to be. Reason is that for them to waive the no trade there is usually a “price” to waive the clause.
It may be petty, but if the Dodgers want him to waive the clause, there may be a $1M or so cost negotiated to do it.
The Cards were supposed to win the division and make the playoffs by simply breathing this year. Now, the Cards would have no interest him and likewise back at them.
That is how most limited no trade clauses work.
Nope. He hates them.
Just like the pitching and hitting coach departed, just like Matt Holliday changed his mind about a bench position and just like Freese declined their hall of has-beens. Everyone can see the franchise crumbling and even the most loyal are distancing themselves.
The White Sox will almost certainly need to pay down most if not all of Lynn’s remaining 2023 salary ($6.8MM) and 2024 team buyout ($1MM) in order to secure the best trade package from the Rays.
Reinsdorf would rather take a bucket of balls and a garden rake from the Dodgers and have them pay Lynn’s entire salary than chip in money and get back real prospects.
It chaps Reinsdorf’s ass to pay a player to play for another team. He refuses to do it.
Lynn supposed to pitch vs Cubbies tonight…
#1 WhiteSoxFan: I’ll admit it, I’m a Sox fan,too, but I would advise all bb fans who can get the Chicago feed (once again, thanks MLB network for your coverage of the Subway series) to watch tonight’s game. With Lynn pitching, the hated cubs could set the long franchise history of HRs in a season. Good luck, TB.
Yes, in your dreams….this guy is cooked……strikeouts in todays MLB is more the result of players swinging for the fences as .240 hitters than a guy like Lynn dominating with stuff….come on man,,,,,trust your eyes!
Most HR hitters seem to have batting averages in the mid-.250’s.
The Dodgers can burp up what he’s owed. The Rays would have to take out a loan.
And give up HRs at an alarming rate. Dodgers should steer clear.
The guy still has a high k rate, just needs to find a way to regress his ERA to his former years. Rays are good at reinventing pitchers.
Sox defense cost Lynn 5 ER’s instead of 1 in first inning of last start.
Lynn is better than his stats.
Did the next batter hit a 5 run homer, or did he pitch like cr*p after the error?
Grand slam that never would have happened. Sox would have been out of the inning.
The Sox’ defense is something you’d find in the instructional league TA and Andrus/Remillard can’t turn a double play. That is, when any of the three can hold onto the ball. Same with steals. That, and their pathetic bullpen, has killed the SP W/L numbers, for the most part.
As an Orioles fan, I like this move…although Brixton, you have a valid point
Lynn is having a bad season, but there’s no reason to think he wouldn’t be able to help the Rays in the playoffs, and further if they we’re to advance.
You mean, like when he “helped” the Yankees in the 2018 ELDS? Or CHW in 2021?
Any pitcher from the Sox instantly is better on another team. That defense is brutal.
Gold Glove OFs can’t stop a 400′ homerun.
True, but when your fielders behind you are not getting to balls and making plays and making errors, you’re throwing more pitches getting gassed.
Perfect example is Bummer. On the surface, his numbers look horrible but his peripherals have actually been fine.
Nope, but they can help ensure that it only costs you 1 run instead of 3.
Yup. Look at what Jake Diekman has done since leaving.
Except they are both not good at baseball and are not blocking anybody.
That is good news……for Baltimore.
Over a 6 ERA and has the Rays on his no trade clause. A team that has a track record for helping pitchers, yea I’d waive that clause too.
The rays are probably on that list bc of when they were the only team using the opener and it made old men cry.
No bullpen for old men in today’s game either. Just saying…
Checks Lynn’s stats……and….-0.9 WAR??? Can the Rays fix him?
Check out Lynn’s splits vs righties (~.600 OPS) and lefties (~1.000 !). The Rays might get creative with Lynn in the playoffs (i.e., relieves to face 3 straight righties) and regular season (opener or a “short” long man who is taken out before a glut of lefties).
Braves should swing a deal for him (no top prospects included, of course).
I think they would want Vaughn Grissom.
Lmao nonsense. The Vaugh Grissom disrespect because of 19 games earlier this season is silly
Well he is blocked with Orlando and Ozzie. Unless they plan on moving him to a new position or use him as a bench piece and leave Shewmake in triple A, they should think about moving him. Also I’m not suggesting a straight up swap but I think any trade between the two teams would be centered around him going back to Chicago.
Why’s depth a bad thing that has to be dealt with? Grissom is effectively the backup if any IF gets injured and has to go on the DL. right now. You don’t trade a player with his bat for anything short of a difference maker with multiple seasons of team control.
Are the White Sox still ignoring defense in their acquisitions? Do they not learn?
Yes. Same thing, different year. Their motto is do what didn’t work in the 1980’s.
No, they don’t. They’ve been content to go without a 2b man for three years now. They have a SS playing Second, a 1b man playing RF and a C playing 1b. They’re going to unload not rental players but players they don’t want to pay. Just watch who they get in return for players like Giolito. This team is going to be in the toilet for many years to come.
The Braves need to clear out some salary. They’re my pick to land Ohtani if he changes his mind of west coast only.
Would a trade affect the 2024 Team Option that’s in his contract?
The option just transfers to t he Rays
No, but Lynn would likely be bought out at that salary.
The good teams identify pitch usage and make adjustments to the pitcher so he isn’t serving up home runs 20 rows deep. Lynn has a lot of pitches. One of Tampa Bay’s pitching philosophies is to cut down the different types of pitches guys throw and focus on the ones that work.
In addition to all the other things fhat I have no idea about. They’ve got a real strong track record with pitching.
Tampa has historically been able to evaluate and get the most out of their trades. Lynn takes the ball every start and lasts 5 plus innings with no offensive support and the worst defense in the MLB. If the cost is someone from the 40 man roster and a mid tier prospect for a guy that has playoff experience/great clubhouse and will battle to give you 5-6 innings every start you should get him.
Great…..lasting “5 innings +” will cook their bullpen in every start of his and leave them vulnerable in the playoffs…….
The pitchers who go 5-6 innings are taken out by managers who don’t want their SP to face a lineup the third time through. They should just let them pitch until they’re in the 90/100 pitch range.
Even the best defense can’t keep a home run 20 rows deep from happening
Guessing it will just be the mid tier prospect.
As a Sox fan, I can assure you that Lance Lynn is still a very good pitcher. He just needs to be in a good organization again. Some team is gonna be very glad they traded for him.
Unfortunately, I agree with this. I still love watching Lynn pitch and will miss him, but he needs to be traded.
His flyball-HR rate will come down, his defense will be better, and his FIP is already around 5, so I would expect whoever gets him to get a pitcher who fights every batter for 110 pitches, and will most likely have an ERA between 3 and 4.
So you’re ignoring FIP?
No – while I think FIP is massively over-utilized as a simplistic tool, one that doesn’t consider things like average EV and hard-hit rate, I do think FIP tells part of the story.
Right now, it suggests that he is approximately 1 run better than his ERA. The Sox horrible defense could account for that part of the difference.
I believe there is some bad luck in his HR/Flyball rate that will normalize and bring that down further to an ERA closer to 4.
Don’t expect much back. Probably Brujan, someone who sucks who Rays probably wouldn’t mind losing.
I think the big name the Sox would want from them in any trade would be Vaughn Grissom.
yes, known Ray Vaughn Grissom.
The thing screwed up. It was supposed to be a reply to bloodgimp that should the Braves should go after Lynn.
Wrong team
I know. I was trying to reply to another comment on here. Sorry.
Lynn makes the most sense due to the fact the acquisition cost won’t be as big & the Rays pitching coach believing he can help him. Also the Rays are just looking for a capable #4 starter to expand the starting rotation.
A pitcher like Lynn belongs indoors
And on the mute button
I was at the game he pitched last week versus the Twins. He wasn’t fooling anyone and it became a home run derby.
Hope the White Sox get Mead for Lynn!
more like Meat
The meat would have to be sent separately or else Lance will eat it.
Lynn told anyone who would listen that he works with a trainer in the off-season who gets him ready to pitch nine innings. And yet he hasn’t lost a pound off his gut.
Blocked Vaughn at 1B and Moncada at 3B.
Throw Moncada in the trade and problem solved.
How about you just release Moncada to make it work?
There are certain “please don’t add that guy to the deal” players and Moncada is one of them.
The guy that created the disaster will be permitted to eff up tear down #2. Buy high sell low. You’ve been Hahned!
There is plenty of interest in Lynn and he fits several teams needs and manager wants. I could see both the Rangers and Astros with Bochy and Baker would like another veteran that they could run out there for 5-6 innings at every start and save their pens while waiting for others to get healthy.
And give up 5-6 homers every start.
Want get a ton for Lynn due to his salary that Rays take on, he will get a talent but not top end talent
I’d bet a good deal that the Sox will pay it down and the Rays will give up a better prospect in exchange. It won’t be a top guy but the Rays have multiple infield prospects that should be of some interest to Chicago.
Brujan has struggled in limited opportunities but was highly regarded not very long ago
Rumors on Twitter seem to indicate that it’s Wilcox
Sox would have to pay down all of Lynn’s remaining salary to get Wilcox, and even then I don’t like it for the Rays. Maybe if it’s part of a bigger package – Lynn and Kopech for Wilcox and others.
Saw the Wilcox rumor. If I was the WSox I’d would want Taylor Walls and C. Wilcox.
Sox pay Lynn’s salary – throw in JKelley fully paid..
Forgot: Wilcox is 2-8 at AA with a 6 era. Would fit in nicely.
Lynn is cooked. He’s at best a buyout option then a low base salary next year. No way he stays on at 18 million next year. Not with the white Sox or the devil rays.
Anything the Sox can get for Lynn is better than nothing, he will have an offense and defense behind him this time, a league leader in strikeouts, Chris Sale was a great trade chip and the Sox got the worst hall back for him, while Quintana and Eaton brought back good returns.
Interesting they’re going Lynn over Giolito. Or even asking the price on Cease, whom they could easily afford in prospects
The one thing the Sox shouldn’t do is trade Cease Him and Robert are the only players worth watching.
With Eflin returning to the mean fast , rays may be desperate for a starter
Guy is washed up. Even given the fact that his team’s defense isn’t great and giving him a 6.18 ERA, his FIP is 5.28, which means he’s more of the problem than his defense. If Rays trade for him, it better not be for much.
In any deal for Lynn, look for TB to part with a “prospect” on the 40-man. Vidal Bruján’s struggles in the majors make him a likely player whom TB would use to bolster their staff. I’m hoping Hahn targets Colby White, who has returned from injury with similarly great minor league results. The Santos trade was tremendous, and another cheap reliever with upside would greatly help retool the staff, freeing money for a starter.
Getting both Brujan & White would be an ideal return for Lynn and a definite win for the beleaguered SOX front office.
I can’t see the Rays trading White while he’s still rehabbing from TJS and his value is in the gutter. Rays aren’t known for giving away good pitchers.
I’ve consulted the bones…my fearless prediction is Giolito and TA to the…DODGERS. Mookie Betts goes back to RF, TA finds his stroke, Dodgers run away with the West.
A package of Giolito and TA bringing back LAD prospect pitchers is needed since the SOX don’t have a single starter in the upper minors that could realistically come up and compete for a slot in the rotation. Pepiot and Maddux Bruns seem to be the types of arms the SOX usually target, power arms that struggle with walks. I’d be ok with that.
I think both Giolito and Lynn get traded today. Giolito to the Dodgers, hopefully that brings a nicer return since he’s having a better season of the two. Lynn to the Rays, hopefully nothing too bad not expecting the world for him, I’ve tempered my expectations. Unless the White Sox throw in another tradable piece, that would change the package from either team.
Well, Lance is set to face Stroman and the Cubs in a matter of hours.
Might happen later on at night. GMs don’t stop working once they get home especially at the trade deadline.
Looking at the standings there are only 11 teams that would be considered for sure sellers because they have less than 50 wins. There are 3 teams with 60 or more wins who might make minor role moves like a reliever or cheaper backend starter. That leaves 16 teams looking to make a move or two to get them going….it is a sellers market.
Hoping the Rays outbid the Dodgers. LA has too many SPs right now who need fixing/better consistency (Urias/Gonsolin) together with young guys also providing inconsistent results. Acquiring Lynn is not going to solve that. He is a slight upgrade to Sheehan right now but not much else unless he gets fixed quickly.
Duck the fodgers
Dodgers should steer clear from Lance Lynn. Big mistake waiting to happen.
I’ve heard that the Dodgers are good at straightening pitchers out. Lynn will take all they’ve got to make him a viable pitcher.
Any deal involving this overweight and outspoken washed up hack you better include and bring the real Lynn out of retirement… Fred that is !! Word on the street is that he is heading north
He got lit up tonight against the Cubs. He seems done