Last week, we broke down the early trade deadline deals. Let’s finish things up. For the smart alecks in the audience, we are relaxing our definition of “big hype” to accommodate timely analysis.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Drew Gilbert, 22, OF, NYM (AA)
(A+/AA) 321 PA, 12 HR, 10 SB, .277/.367/.461
Acquired in the Justin Verlander trade, Gilbert looks the part of a future core-performing outfielder. The Astros took him with the 28th pick of the 2022 draft, and he’s already within spitting distance of the Majors. The overall profile doesn’t read as particularly impactful, instead filling a high-floor, modest-ceiling bucket. While that isn’t an exciting review of Gilbert’s skills, he’s still viewed as a Top 100 prospect with some support for a Top 50 ranking. High-probability 2-WAR athletes are widely coveted around the league. Defensive reviews vary. Some evaluators prefer him in a corner, but he seemingly has the skills to stick in center if a better defender isn’t already on hand.
Jake Eder, 24, SP, CWS (AA)
(A/AA) 41.1 IP, 10.9 K/9, 5.4 BB/9, 4.35 ERA
The return for Jake Burger, Eder was on the fast track in 2021 before requiring UCL replacement. He was well on his way to a Top 25 prospect ranking. Alas, his stuff has backed up since returning, and his command shed a grade as well. At his best, the southpaw had a carrying fastball, a lethal slider, and a show-me changeup. Reports indicate he’s lost his arm slot which affected his stuff. He’s also lost velocity, further diminishing his stuff. More distance from surgery could be the cure.
If he’s in search of development, my contacts recommend he follow Lucas Giolito’s lead and seek help from a third party. His new org is not well-regarded by outside evaluators. There’s now considerable relief risk – and not necessarily sexy high-leverage kind. Still, he was among the best pitchers on the planet only a few years ago. He could yet recover.
Ryan Clifford, 19, 1B/OF, NYM (A+)
(A/A+) 320 PA, 19 HR, 4 SB, .284/.394/.513
The other piece of the Verlander trade, Clifford might turn out to be the best hitter dealt at the deadline – assuming he connects enough to catch on at higher levels. He’s a slow runner, and he struggles against fastballs at the top of the zone. Considering even most sinkerballers have a high fastball in their repertoire these days, it’s not a great time to bring that Pat Burrell swing back to the Majors. That said, he punishes anything low in the zone, including breaking balls. Power is Clifford’s carrying trait. If he ever maintains a permanent Major League role, it will be on the back of 30-homer power.
The Astros had him working on his passivity at High-A, and it seemed to be going well. We’ll see how the Mets approach his development.
Kahlil Watson, 20, SS, CLE (A+)
255 PA, 7 HR, 14 SB, .203/.333/.364
One of the top prep shortstop prospects in the 2021 draft, Watson’s development has stagnated in the Marlins system. Inconsistent strike zone judgment and a 12.5 percent swinging strike rate are to blame. The Guardians are known for their love of disciplined, contact-oriented athletes. Ostensibly, they know how to train these traits. There are fully substantiated reports regarding his makeup – you can google them if you want – which the Guardians will need to address. It’s fair to remember not every 20-year-old athlete is an old soul with a zen attitude. Some guys are fiery and later learn to channel it. In any event, Watson’s athleticism remains on display. He should be considered extremely raw.
Kevin Made, 20, SS, WSH (A+)
300 PA, 3 HR, 3 SB, .240/.328/.355
In recent years, we’ve gotten used to watching meteoric rises within every farm system. The business of prospecting is booming. Still, some guys take a longer path to the bigs. Made looks like one of these. He’s an able defensive shortstop who should remain at the position. Tool grades on his bat generally come in around the 45- to 55-grade range. He has plus discipline without the usual case of passivitis. There’s a high probability utility man floor here with potential for a starting role – likely of the second-division variety. For now, he needs to mature into more physicality without losing a step.
Three More
Nick Nastrini, CWS (23): Sent to the White Sox in the Lynn/Kelly trade, Nastrini features two above average breaking balls and a quality heater. He’s a fly ball pitcher with below average command. I view him as a future reliever, but plenty of better evaluators give him a shot at sticking in the rotation.
Hao-Yu Lee, DET (20): Lee has hit at every stop. His defensive limitations – he’s a second-baseman only – and modest pop lead to an awkward fit in the current meta. At the top end of the spectrum, comparable defenders like Luis Arraez and Edouard Julien hit enough to force their way into the lineup. By the time Lee is ready, Detroit will have some practice with this defensive profile courtesy of Colt Keith.
Sem Robberse, STL (21): Robberse doesn’t turn heads, but he has all the traits teams look for in under-the-radar innings eaters. He features a plus changeup and a deep repertoire of otherwise slightly below average offerings. His command has potential to be plus and will help decide how far he travels along a Zach Eflin-like path.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
“ a 12.5 percent swinging strike rate ”
I find it odd that this would be a knock against Watson, it is just a point above the MLB average and not even close to the SwStr rates put up by the guys who really struggle.
I would more point to his poor babip and batted ball profile as evidence that he is making poor swing decisions. 12.5 doesn’t mean he’s just up there swinging at everything, particularly with a double digit walk %
But that’s also only 1 point above the MLB average at High-A. Not saying that he won’t ever improve or that he’s a bust yet, but there’s a reason why it’s not too promising.
Most recent analysis I could find is from 2021, but the average swinging strike rate in High A was 13.4 percent compared to 11.4 percent for MLB. So that puts Watson right in the middle.
Well said Oddball. He hits very few line drives, which makes for a low BABIP, and he strikes out a lot. That’s why he’s barely been over .200 this year. I know some people hate BA, but it’s the result of his tendencies. It’s not a good look in High A ball.
A notable aspect of Sem Robberse would be the fact he was born in the Netherlands. There’s been less than a dozen of those guys to play in the mlb.
Didn’t Detroit draft a second baseman? Is this the second second baseman or the third second baseman. King Crimson. Well we’re sure to get a good one, eventually, maybe.
They drafted Kevin McGonigle as a shortstop but the writeups suggest he’ll move to 2B.
(Hint = 1st round, 2022)
I know, Mr. Harris probably…….forgot.
Overtired! Jace Jung and he’s in AA. He could come up next year but I’d expect it would be at the end of the year and only if AAA goes really well. Even if he does I don’t think they’ll rush him. Malloy has a .415 OBP and 17 HR in AAA and hasn’t gotten the call yet so I think 2025 is more likely for Jung from what I’ve read. Tigers are stockpiling 2B types. Good problem to have.
Sad as is to say. I hope the Illiches sell the team.
I believe the competition would be good. The Illiches can concentrate on the hockey.
Someone else, who truly has a passion for baseball, should own the team. I really don’t think it much of a love. It appears to be more of a money maker. He now knows what profit he is giving up and provide a valid offer price.
I turn off the broadcast each and everytime they promote hockey.
I don’t like hockey much. The older kids basically made me.the hockey puck when I was a kid. Never cared for.people more than twice.my age slamming.me as hard as they could. Yeah, I had some of.the shittiest neighbors God ever allowed to live ( wish He would.listen to the prayers of six year old.boys…but He doesn’t). ( 17 yo guys slamming a 6.yo boy.)
Since when is Kevin Made a big hype prospect?
Since he’s not a cub. Brad doesn’t like CHC.
I’m all for dissenting comments when called for.
But one orgs top 20 is another orgs top 10 for example, that brings them to big hype for the org itself.
I haven’t looked at the exact numbers here, but trade chips also tend to get more hype attached than purely homegrown folks.
Made is 20 years old playing in A+ ball hitting .234 with no power, has stolen only 4 bases all year and he never has.
Made isn’t a “Big Hype” prospect. He’s quite literally done nothing so far besides have some tools and projections from when he was signed as teen to be hyped at all.
“Big hype” doesn’t hit for power, doesn’t hit for average, doesn’t get on base, doesn’t steal, solid but not elite defensively. He has some tools but right now there is zero hype surrounding Kevin Made.
Wrong Chicago team. I’ve got nothing against the Cubs. They’re average or better in all the major aspects of development. It’s the White Sox who couldn’t dev the second coming of Mike Trout.
Literally the third sentence of the article:
“For the smart alecks in the audience, we are relaxing our definition of ‘big hype’ to accommodate timely analysis”
If Clifford is Pat the Bat minus the STDs the Mets will be happy
Some guys are fiery and later learn to channel it.
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I generally don’t care for the MLB-R editorials, but I have found this to often be true. The guys with the fiery tempers usually burn out quickly, but the ones that turn the temper into an asset are well worth waiting for.
lots of white sox shade here
If Hao-Yu Lee manages to play 2B as well as Luis Arraez, he’ll be fine. While Arraez seemingly has a rough reputation at second, his metrics are pretty average for the most part. RF/9 is basically league average 4.34 vs. 4.27, respectively, and his UZR/150 is +5.4 this year thanks, in part, to an excellent fielding percentage. Arraez’s BIS Defensive Runs Saved is also +2 at second base this year.
In general, Arraez had solid fielding stats in the minors despite the Twins being absolutely terrible at developing middle infield defenders. Arraez is very slow, but he does accelerate to his very pedestrian top speed quickly and his glove is very reliable.
The note about Giolito looking for help outside the organization to improve his stuff, and how the White Sox aren’t considered a good organization for developing their players really depresses me about the future of the White Sox, they suck so much right now…
Hiring LaRussa was not only a mistake in the moment, it set the team back years in many ways. Hiring Grifol was also a mistake because you can’t expect a rookie manager to come in and clean up LaRussa’s messes. The whole organization needs a culture overhaul. Do you start with clearing the deck in the FO? Or is that not possible until there is a new owner?
Jerry is not a great owner, and even if he were to pass it onto his family, I’m not sure they would be any better either. I also don’t think Jerry will sell the team, it’s a good stream of revenue for him.
I wholeheartedly agree with you about LaRussa and Grifol, the front office set the team back years, and the damage has been done. It would be great if another Rickets family came along and bought the White Sox but it’s pretty grim right now.
So Dombrowski sold Harris on Lee by saying he’s a combination of Ozzie Smith and Luis Arreaz… Hits like Smith and fields like Arraez.