Cody Bellinger’s 2023 rebound season with the Cubs has positioned him as one of the top players set to hit the free agent market this offseason. The 28-year-old landed second on MLBTR’s latest update to our Free Agent Power Rankings, and it’s all but a foregone conclusion that he’ll hit the market looking to secure a massive payday this offseason. If there was any doubt about that possibility, Bellinger’s agent, Scott Boras, removed it when discussing his client’s resurgence with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Interestingly, Boras called out the Dodgers organization for their handling of Bellinger when he wasn’t at full health.
“He was hurt, plain and simple,” Boras tells Nightengale of Bellinger’s 2021-22 seasons, when he batted a combined .193/.256/.355 in 900 plate appearances. “He has surgery, and the Dodgers asked him to play with a 35% strength deficiency, and then with COVID, he was deprived of the expert medical treatment. He didn’t have the shoulder strength. You don’t just go from a .900 OPS to a .500 OPS without understanding the impact of an injury.”
Bellinger famously injured his shoulder while celebrating a home run during the 2020 postseason. After swatting a go-ahead long ball in Game 7 of the NLCS, Bellinger and teammate Enrique Hernandez leapt and bashed their forearms together, which wound up dislocating Bellinger’s shoulder. He quickly had the shoulder popped back into its socket and continued to play through the World Series, but Bellinger underwent shoulder surgery in the offseason and didn’t look the same during 2021-22. He also dealt with a hairline fracture of his left fibula in April 2021 and later that season suffered a fractured rib when colliding with teammate Gavin Lux on a fly ball.
Fans tend to bristle at just about any public-facing comments from Boras, but in this case, injuries have long stood as an obvious and likely factor to Bellinger’s decline. The question surrounding his drop-off at the plate wasn’t so much one of whether the injuries were a factor, but rather one of whether he’d ever right the ship after struggling through a litany of injuries in under one year’s time.
The 2023 season in Chicago has rather emphatically answered those questions. Bellinger is hitting .321/.368/.546 with 20 home runs, 23 doubles, a triple and 18 steals (in 22 tries). He’s played both center field and first base for the Cubs, drawing above-average marks at each spot, and perhaps most critically has dramatically reduced his strikeout rate from 2021-22’s rate of 27.1% to a career-low 15%.
Bellinger isn’t walking nearly as often as he used to (7.2% compared to his 14.4% peak in 2019), and Statcast shows that he’s not hitting the ball nearly as hard as he did during his 2019 MVP campaign either. That season saw Bellinger average 91.1 mph off the bat with an overall 45.6% hard-hit rate; this year he’s at 87.3 mph and 30%, respectively. The drop in quality of contact is a potential red flag, but the results are undeniably impressive. When Bellinger does make hard contact, he’s managed to make the most of it.
It all sets the stage for a lucrative payday this winter, when the free-agent market will be largely devoid of productive, prime-aged hitters. In typical quotable fashion, Boras quipped that “demand is often created by rarity,” calling Bellinger a “five-tool player” and Gold Glove-caliber defender at multiple positions before adding that “…the demand for that is very, very high.” Bellinger said all the right things free agents typically espouse, about his desire to remain with the Cubs and his affinity for the stadium, fans and culture.
Nightengale also spoke with teammates Dansby Swanson and Michael Fulmer, manager David Ross and bench coach Andy Green, all of whom raved about Bellinger’s importance to the club and his remarkable season overall. The exact asking price on Bellinger won’t be clear until the offseason begins in earnest, but it’s easy to envision Boras & Co. seeking a long-term deal worth more than the hefty sums secured for fellow clients Brandon Nimmo (eight years, $162MM) and Kris Bryant (seven years, $182MM). Both began their respective contracts in their age-30 seasons; Bellinger won’t turn 29 until the All-Star break next season.
Happy for Bellinger. The last few years were horrible. He was lost. Shows you how hard it is being a big leaguer. The difference between star and donkey is super thin.
The part where boras is talking about how he was playing at 35% strength is the super thin ice this donkey is skating… don’t call me Eddy Murphy Shrek will surely break this ice? Waters getting warm might as well swim? My world’s on fire how about yours? That’s the way I like it cause then I don’t have to do chores…
Hey now your rob gronkowski, get your film on, get paid
Hey now your a tight end catching footballs getting rings
Skipping work outs makes you gold
Only 7 foot stars break the mold
I always liked Belly’s attitude and future more than nimmo and Bryant who are both overpaid by about 40 mil. Met a dodgers scout that was pissed as hell they let Cody walk. CODY prolly has to take a somewhat smaller guarantee than Kris to prove 2023 isn’t a fluke bit I think 6 years 145 mil is a good starting point.
Belli was always a 5 tool player & yes there were injuries that slowed him down, but He’ll admit the biggest difference is between his ears. I’ve watched this kid play 95% of his MLB games & he played single A in my town. When he’s focused he’s awesome at the plate & a gold glover at 1b & CF… keep it up Cody!!
Too bad Boros just doesn’t do his job, and keep his mouth shut. Nothing but a parasite.
Good thing you don’t pay the contracts. Calling him a parasite just proves how well he does his job 🙂
He is doing his job. He is telling teams who might want to sign him next year that the struggles where injury related and that that injury is now gone away so that teams are willing to give him a big contract which is boras job.
Not sure if what boras said is entirely true, I believe there are other risk factors like a complicated swing with many moving Parts that belli likes to tinker around with which means it can get out of sync and cause periods of huge k numbers (like we have seen several times in his career) but technically boras was doing what he is paid for.
You want some duct tape and ruffies to make that possible? Poor boras, getting heat for sticking up for his million dollar cash cow
I don’t like Scott Boras so, I don’t care if you say negative things about him and his staff whether it’s true or proper It works for me.
Belli had all the opportunities with the Dodgers and more but never adjusted his approach at the plate.
Is there a better approach or would a clean bill of health had helped his numbers more?
It takes two to tango. If he’s hurt bad enough it’s affecting his performance that much he shouldn’t be on the field. A team can’t force an injured player on the field
The Cubs unlocked something with Bellinger to get to his potential that the Dodgers couldn’t.
According to Boras, it’s the Dodgers the sky is blue
Let’s hope he doesn’t overplay his hand with Bellinger as badly as he did with Correa.
Buyer beware.
But I think Belli is back, and a good bet. But I’m hoping all teams exercise sanity this offseason. This ridiculousness in the length of contracts is so stupid IMO.
6/150? Is that a feasible/reasonable number?
I think a 27.5 million range is where I would feel comfortable. Paid like the top first baseman in the game because I think he can be.
If I were the Cubs, and it may not be enough, but 6/165 opt out after two years with a team option to increase to an 8/230
“I think a 27.5 million range”…Arte Moreno on line 1; actually nobody else seems interested at those numbers, but this is the third time today that Arte has called.
I’m pretty certain he will exceed that by a good amount, both in years and AAV. Now, what a team will ultimately pay him is one thing; however I can envision Boras asking for 8 years, 240MM.
8/240 sounds about right and new York is calling…
I’m with ya. I love what he’s done for the Cubs. Boras? Not so much
Anyone who gives him more than a three year deal off of one good year off the last several is foolish. So the Mets or Pads will sign him.
Correa’s health history jeopardizing two deals isn’t really Boras’ fault. And if a $200 million deal is overplaying his hand then I’m sure Bellinger would be very happy with Boras’ overplaying his hand this winter.
Like Correa taking a pillow deal in 2021, Bellinger doing the same has worked out really well for him and Boras.
“Correa’s health history”….Buyer beware with Scott Boras clients; from Kumar Rocker to Carlos Correa and others, Boras has a long history of falsely proclaiming his players “healthy”. Anyone or any team that relies on his word deserves the “damaged goods” you will most likely receive. Ignore anything Scott Boras says, do your own due diligence and proceed with the ultimate caution in doing business with this snake.
Clubs run medicals on players. They don’t just listen to the agents. You understand that, right?
Congrats to the cubs for taking a chance and hopefully for them securing a piece of their future club. I’m envious team I root for gave Conforto and Haniger way more money and years for less production. Maybe he can be there overpay next off season if the cubs don’t lock him up.
Wouldn’t touch him long term at any price.
Not sold on his improvement? I think he knew what pitches were coming in his MVP season.
Only If he was on the Astros!
I am a Nationals fan. I think Cody would be just what the Nats need, Like Jayson Werth, his presence would magnify and solidify a team of younger players. I see his helping in the outfield in 2024 as well as 1B, but he can bring gold glove play to first base, with some pop, for years. Dom Smith has been a fine first baseman defensively this year but adding Cody’s bat to the talent that is coming up through the system would make a lot of teams scared.
The Nats certainly have CAP space, especially after next year.
I would expect Boras to defend his player, and make excuses for past poor play, since he has a direct financial interest in doing so. But the Dodgers forced Bellinger to play hurt in 2021? When he was terrible? And then he was still hurt in 2022, and they again made him play? But now he’s better?
I am really sure that he was “forced” to play. The Dodgers don’t just push out a player when not ready to play.
I don’t think they force injured players to play or forced Bellinger to play, however, how do they explain what they asked Gonsolin to do?
He actually injured his forearm arm/ucl last year in August. He basically pitched this year in pain and now will have TJ surgery.
“What they asked Gonsolin to do”…..He’s a baseball player and they asked him to play baseball, not run thru a burning wall, my friend.
OK. They asked him to play. And he did. Knowing he had pain, some type of injury.
Kershaw wanted to play. Shut him down for over a month. JD Martinez pulled several times at the last minute from the lineup. Now on the I.L. Just saying, they ask their players to play, yeah, you bet. When they’re injured? No! When they need a break? Some, not all. Roberts admitted after Gonsolin’s last start that he had been dealing with a sore arm, elbow. I’ve never seen them keep running a guy out there that wasn’t 100%. Just seems strange that HE was a sacrificial lamb.
Also, is there any record of Boras blaming the Dodgers’ medical judgement during 2021 and 2022?
Exactly. Where was his agent when he needed him to step and protect him?! Lol, obviously Scott is going to reframe the context for upcoming negotiations, but it’s laughable to blame an organization for giving him a chance while he struggled. They would’ve been slammed for paying him less.
Exactly. Where was his agent when he needed him to step and protect him?! Lol, obviously Scott is going to reframe the context for upcoming negotiations, but it’s laughable to blame an organization for giving him a chance while he struggled. They would’ve been slammed for playing him less.
Would love for the Cubs to resign him but im betting some team throws him a stupid high offer.
I agree soldier, the Cubs can definitely afford him, but I don’t think they’ll do it unless it’s for a really high one year deal. Their minor league system is loaded.
They have a glut of minor league outfielders and Happ and Suzuki signed for several years. With that said, I’d still give him a mega-deal. His lefty power bat and glove are not easily replaceable for Cubs. My guess is that another team offers him more money. With his agent being who he is, he’s likely gone after this season.
Wrigley: Bellinger was looking for a one-year contract with anyone who would sign him to prove he could still play at a high level. The cubs were that team. Bellinger is gone after this season. In other words, the cubs are nothing but tools.
Tools that he probably takes with him to a playoff appearance that they otherwise had no chance of obtaining.
I surely hope that Ian Happ is not the reason the Cubs would not sign Cody Bellinger. Ian is league average at best. Bellinger gives you an outfielder, 3rd basemand and DH. If you use him correctly and bring up the prospects it could all fit.
I’ve never seen Bellinger play 3rd base. Is he any good?
first base, my bad
Bore Ass!
I agree with the commenters who say it would be incredibly risky to give him a long-term deal but if Brandon freaking Nimmo and Kris Bryant, who is barely an active baseball player now, signed THOSE deals then who am I to say that Bellinger isn’t worth an 8 year plus deal worth $200 million+?
“But if Brandon freaking Nimmo and Kris Bryant”…I’ve been one of Brandon Nimmo’s harshest critics the last few yrs, but the fact is, Nimmo went into his contract year during a 4 yr period, where he improved defensively and offensively every single year. This is not even close to the case with Belli, who has been bad or average 3 of the last 4 years. There’s no explaining or justifying the Kris Bryant deal, but one player getting a MASSIVE overpay doesn’t neccesarily mean everyone in MLB gets one.
How many Boras contracts work out? Besides Max?
So far Gerrit Cole is looking worth it.
What do you mean by “work out”? What is your criteria?
If you are talking about the value of the WAR the players produced, then 316 the 464 contracts his clients have signed over the past 22 seasons have produced more value than the team paid. That’s 68%.
Thanks for having facts as part of your comment. It’s an occasional thing on this and many websites.
Your WAR comparisons were as of time of the trade? Is that correct? Accumulated WAR, as opposed to projected WAR at time of the trade?
Thanks for dealing in facts when you post.
Few and far between. Gerrit Cole hasn’t been that bad for the Yankees though. Boras does his job rather or not he gets teams to overpay. MLB teams have adjusted to Boras and his tactics. Judge and Nimmo were hot commodities and got paid because Boras did his job. Yankees couldn’t afford to lose Judge. But other mid tier boras clients, got a deal more to their level of play. When hot commodities come up like Cole, Nimmo, and Judge, Boras makes sure to make it a bidding war. He hands the players the type of contracts and pro and cons of that organization.
Judge isn’t a Boras client.
“Overpay” is such a lazy and tired term around here. It’s supply and demand and MLB is flushed with cash. Teams would be insolvent if they kept handing out big contracts which they couldn’t afford. One would think they would learn their lesson for every regrettable signing, no? Yet salaries continue to soar.
They workout for the players all the time!
Cubbies 6/$165M with opt out after yrs 2 and 4 and a no trade. Install him at first regularly once PCA is everyday starter and shuffle him around there, all 3 of spots, and DH as needed to play matchups with PCA/Seiya. Happ being able to play 3rd here and there opens up more opportunities. People always talk about the log jam of outfielders in the Cubs system but I don’t think you just let a 28-year-old player of Cody Bellinger’s caliber leave without seriously exploring a chance to lock up his prime years. Besides, that could make players like Suzuki or Kevin Alcantara and others valuable trade pieces so we can fix this atrocious bullpen and maybe add a starter. The Cubs have to re-sign either Bellinger or Candelario, or both. The rebuild is over. It’s time to spend money and build a perennial contender while many of our best players are still young.
You can never have too many good players.
Probably takes 7/27.5 to get him. 193m. Think it’s too early in the rebuild to spend this. Coupled with the farm having some ready players and other existing contracts would believe they will make a run at Candelario and probably pass on Bellinger due to the cost.
I think it’s exactly the right time to spend. Few thought they’d do anything this year and they’re in the playoff hunt ala 2015. They’re farm system is short on infield depth so Candy and Belli would be the way to go. Chapmen would look awfully nice at 3rd to….
Also, prospect are just that prospects until they prove they can play in the Majors. Yes, the Cubs have a lot of outfielders in their system, question is which ones are legitimate Major League ballplayers and which are failed prospects who either washout after a year or two or never ever make it? Cody Bellinger is a legit player, MVP caliber. Don’t screw this one up Jed.
Scottie already shrewdly talking up his client. This is why Boras gets the big bucks and the wannabe’s like me are posting here.
He does his job. Like him or not.
If I was a world class baseball player he would be my agent.
Would love to hear Boras comment on his horrific EV, HardHit, and unsustainable BABIP … Good luck to the team that goes 9 figures for that virtually guaranteed regression.
A lot of that has been in 2 strike counts, where he excels at putting the ball in play. Just a real Professional hitter IMO.
@signed
“A lot of two out counts” does not explain 18th percentile avg EV, 9th percentile HardHit, 25th percentile barrel rate, and 48th percentile max exit velocity. His power this year is a Wrigley mirage.
His contact rate is up. He’s putting more balls in play and more to center-left. Far less pull. That explains it.
Bird in the hand….PCA will get plenty of playing as a rookie.
Boras is doing his job but until he does it again Bellinger is NOT worth the risk. He had 3 bad seasons in a row. Anyone giving him anything more than 3 and 45 guaranteed is taking a huge risk unless it is loaded with incentives.
He hit .165 in over half a season in 2021. I traded him in the off-season in my keeper league. I’m glad he’s bounce back but two years in to his new contract, the team will regret the deal.
Bellinger will be the Rodon of players. Will Play well during the walk year, injured the next, after the contract ink is barely dry. Most of boras clients are injured, can’t stay healthy. Isn’t Strasberg a boras client? Grady Sizemore?
Boras on Bellinger:
“$$$$ $$$$$$$ $$$, $$$$$ $$$ $ $$$$$.”
Love Belli but I’m disgusted by players who hire Borass. It’s OK to lie and claim his player was forced to play while injured? How will the Dodgers react to this kind of inference? What does it take to destroy a relationship with an agent?
All those red flags. BABip, exit velocity, HH%, barrel rate, BB rate.
His expected numbers are also much lower than his back of the card stats.
Will he be the .320/.900 hitter he has shown this season or the .260/.780 his peripherals and expected stats point to him being going forward?
If he is a .260/.780 hitter with great defense that is still quite a valuable player. Especially if he is in CF. Is that worth the $30+ million over 8+ years that Boras will be asking for?
His ceiling is worth way more than Brandon Nimmo’s if you buy that it was health which caused his struggles for a few years.
A lot of that comes in 2 strike counts where he excels at putting the ball in play. Just has really professional AB’s.
He’s the best, as a Cub fan I want the Cubs to sign him but I’m sure some team will overpay and that’s ok that’s life
Isn’t Bellinger more valuable in CF ?? I mean, that is where his value is maxed out, no?? So wherever he goes, he ought to be playing CF. And the Cubs have an uber-prospect on the cusp to play CF. Therefore I believe Bellinger will not be with the Cubs after 2023, no way no how.
Bird in the hand, Belli can split time between both….PCA will get plenty of playing time as a rookie.
When I hear that Boras has something to say, I turn out. Boras will never utter a word that won’t attempt to affect his bottom line positively, and of course his client.
Ummm that is his job. Just like you are supposed to always flip that burger, he is always supposed to say what is in the best interest of his clients.
Boras showing his class…..
Everyone knows Boras is just a sleazy used car salesman in a MLB level….
Rendon, Correa, Bogaerts and the list goes on
Since 68% of the deals for Boras clients this century have worked out for the teams that signed them, he sounds more like a Ferrari salesperson.
Source?
Future Yankee written all over him
Simply put, Scott Boras said, $$$$$$$$$
Because it’s not likely true.
Fullerton JC 1983?
Well, Scott…that was a long, long time ago…….
Maybe he put baseball over getting high?
Oh please Cubs don’t screw this one up!
Guess his price just went up…..
Scott Boras is never good news, if the Cubs don’t resign Belli, Cub fans will not be happy, I bet the Cubs are cheap