3:45pm: The Friars have now made it official, selecting Hernandez and transferring Sanchez to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man. They reinstated Robert Suarez from his suspension and placed left-hander Tim Hill on the 15-day injured list due to a sprained left ring finger.
1:58pm: The Padres are set to select the contract of right-hander Nick Hernandez from Triple-A El Paso, reports Ari Alexander of Houston’s KPRC Channel 2. He’ll make his big league debut the first time he takes the mound.
Hernandez, 28, is a former Astros draftee (eighth round, 2016) who signed with San Diego in minor league free agency this offseason. His first year in the Padres organization has been mostly solid thus far. He’s posted sub-4.00 ERA marks with strong strikeout and walk rates in both Double-A and Triple-A, working to a combined 3.60 earned run average with a 33.2% strikeout rate and 8.2% walk rate in 60 innings.
Hernandez has regularly posted quality ERA marks and missed bats in the minors. Command has been an issue at times, evidenced by a career 11.7% walk rate in parts of three Triple-A seasons –though he’s been quite a bit better in that regard this year. Hernandez will get the opportunity to show the Padres that he deserves a chance to stick at the big league level over the season’s final few weeks. He’ll be able to become a minor league free agent again at season’s end if he’s removed from the 40-man.
The Padres will need to open a spot on the 40-man roster in order to formally add Hernandez to the Major League club. That can be easily achieved at this stage of the calendar, however. Both Ji Man Choi and Gary Sanchez remain on the 10-day injured list despite recently suffering fractures. Choi has been trying to play through his injury in Triple-A and could still feasibly return, but moving either to the 60-day injured list would clear roster space for Hernandez.
Just release Rich Hill!
When you spend your money on frivolous, unnecessary items like a 280 Million dollar SS(when you already have at least 3 SS capable players already rostered), you’re left with post prime scrubs like Rich Hill, to make meaningful starts in August & September.
I think trading for and using Dick Mountain is more akin to having a plethora of pitchers on the IL. Signing Bogey has nothing to do with having to use a Hill in Aug/Sep.
There’s been a big shift in sentiment towards SD this year. After beating the Dodgers in the 2022 playoffs and signing Xander, tons of people were making them automatic locks to take the NL West. Now they won’t even make the playoffs and the narrative is how much they suck and spent frivolously. I would be surprised if SD didn’t rebound with a strong season next year.
You can make a strong argument that adding Bogey actually weakened the Pads offense and defense, forcing a couple of their best defenders out of position.
The Padres would’ve been better off playing Xander at 2nd but Preller was desperate and promised Bogaerts the world. AJ is a great scout but not a great negotiator. He’s still young for a GM, maybe he’ll learn from this.
“AJ is a great scout”..Somebody is doing some good scouting and drafting, because the number of high end players traded from the S.D farm the last 8+ years is staggering.
There are a number of factors why I think they will not be a good team in 2024.
1. Snell, Hader, Lugo(opt out), and Sanchez are all FAs after this year and they probably wont resign Snell/Hader and be forced to overpay Lugo and Sanchez because their lack of depth and C or SP.
2. While they have good prospects none of them are going to be on the opening day roster other than maybe Iriarte. I can see Merrill and Mazur getting a September callup but thats about it for prospects.
3. Their big contracts will prevent them from signing any top tier pitchers and will force them to bargain hunt on the SP market. Could Preller thread the needle? Maybe but they are very unlikely to have good pitching next year even though they lead the NL in ERA right now.
Take away Pomeranz, Snell, Lugo, and Hader and you have about 50 mil. If Carpenter opts out to go play somewhere- another 7.5 mil.
I think that leaves some room to sign at least one top tier Aaron Nola type should they desire. Wacha gets a boost up to 16 for 2 years on tram option (or negotiates something in the middle) but that isn’t a bad price for what he has given on a 2 year commitment.
The money is available and will likely be spent.
Snell, Hader, Lugo will be making way over 50 million next year. All 3 of them will get big raises based on their market value and the Padres have to replace the value of those 3 players and good luck doing that with with 50M dollars per year in FA.
Wacha is getting that 2 year/32M option which is a 8.5M boost over last year. Sanchez(if signed) will be about 10M.. Tatis gets a 4M raise. Soto will get 5M more in ARB next year. Thats over 25M next year in raises and this doesn’t include any other raises in ARB.
Doesn’t matter because Seidler will spend. There is a reason despite all that has been said they will be in on bellinger and Ohtani. Plus of course they will add pitching. Seidler will continue to spend so worrying about this is useless until he shows signs of slowing down.
Spend on who and for how long?
He already has 150M committed in 2027. The team is so top heavy in terms of extensions. Seidler cant sign massive long term extensions every year with the way the luxury tax works.
Look if you can’t understand I’ll try one more time. They have 50 mil coming off books and they have maybe 20 in raises – you don’t have to tell me me about Wacha like I didn’t explain that myself to you – so all I’m saying is the math allows for a 20/mil year pitcher that you said they couldn’t sign. Avila, Martinez, a couple of other guys are in line for the 5 maybe 6 spot. They just need to sign 1 top guy to replace Snell – not 2 or 3.
Campy is hitting like he has always been projected so don’t get too quick to sign Sanchez – but I won’t mind it. They have a fair enough back up in Sullivan if they choose to ride with Campy 110 games. Can always address that need with another 35 year old on the rebound.
If you don’t want to understand then stay in the dark.
Betts – he has a way lot of money. He can spend as much as he wants for the foreseeable future. Why are you worried abut his money?
This is what I replied to a guy below you and I think it applies here.
They already have 132M committed in 2024 between Machado, Tatis, Boegarts, Musgrove, Crone, Suarez, Kim, and Homer(released).
You have Wacha in which this team will except his 2Y/32M option, Soto’s 30ish M in ARB, Martinez 8M option, Carps 5.5M option. Grisham 5M in ARB. Thats another 60ish million right there which puts them at 197M. This doesn’t even include all the other ARB/rookie contracts. They are already well past 200M before FA.
If 275M is about what they will expect to spend they wont even be able to build a roster as good at this one for that price and this team is well below .500. Less than 70M to get the value of Snell, Hader, Lugo, and Sanchez just to maintain this well below .500 team.
Carpenter walks away from 7.5 mill??
Even Cohen has limits to the amount he will spend with how the luxury tax works.
I wouldn’t but consider he wants to play and he hasn’t been and isn’t going to play on 2024.
Does he think, hey I’ll get some money somewhere to actually play? He doesn’t need to care how much money as opposed to playing.
On the other hand, he takes the money and coaches next year until he gets released.
@Longtimecoming We both know Carpenter isn’t opting out. Why even bother floating that nonsense out there?
Stop for a moment and think of it like Matt and not like you in your world.
Matt is 38 next year – 1 last year to play the game.
Matt has made 96 mil on salary alone – money isn’t the motivator.
Per BR the option is 5.5 mil.
He went about 3 months without an AB.
Maybe he thinks a different team give him 250-350 Abs and if he gets anywhere near 5.5 mil AND PLAYS as opposed to 5.5 and maybe doesn’t play?
It isn’t that far fetched. If you have 100 mil in the bank. It’s crazy if you only have $5,000 in your 401k.
How about… if Carpenter opts out I’ll delete my account. If he opts in you delete yours. Deal?
Matt Carpenter would be lucky to even get a major league deal this offseason if he opts out. Wishful thinking to say he’ll opt out. Doesn’t have to opt out to go play elsewhere anyway. He can opt in and then let the Padres trade or release him.
Just last year Conforto thought he could get a better dea by turning down the QO. Profar thought so as well by opting out. The Strasberg mess . People might say Soto turning down his offer – professional athletes have different mindset than regular folks when they have so much money in the bank is all I’m saying. You don’t know what makes them tick inside. Anything is possible when money is not a factor. That I shared to grasp for every day working Joe.
So is that a yes or a no on my wager?
Not sure how any of that has anything to do with anything but Profar DID get a better deal by opting out.
I never said that he WOULD do it. I brought up for conversation as an observation that it I could happen. Sorry you can read or comprehend that that on a sight like this there is more to just pedicting the future or acting like you can.
I thought it was the same 1 year for sale money? Maybe I’m wrong on that. That said, he thought he was getting a multi year pact by giving up that guarantee and I believe he came down to the wire and well, it was Colorado and that didn’t work out so well.
Carpenter is 100% opting in and you will be hearing from me when he does. Gotta love the notification bell.
He got $250k more and also the Padres had to pay him a $1m buyout when he opted out so he was in the green by $1.25m. And as for “But he had to play for the lowly Rockies!” he’s with the Padres now, is he not?
In case you haven’t noticed, next season is all in 2024.
It’s still absolutely ludicrous to say that Matt Carpenter might not opt out.
His option is for $5.5 million. I don’t think he will, but stranger things have happened.
He’d be hard-pressed to get a major league contract if he were a free agent this offseason.
Carpenter has performance bonuses in his contract. $3 million worth. I think he believed he would get 450-500 PA when he signed with the Padres. Pretty sure he is not happy with getting 180 or so this season.
Here is what Cots has:
Matt Carpenter dh-1b
2 years/$12M (2023-24)
2 years/$12M (2023-24)
signed by San Diego as a free agent 12/20/22
$3M signing bonus, paid in three installments during 2023
23:$3.5M, 24:$5.5M player option
price of 2024 player option increases by amount of performance bonuses earned in 2023
annual performance bonuses based on plate appearances: $500,000 each for 300, 350, 400, 450, 500, 550 PAs
legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/nl…
The Padres have very few holes other than Snell, Hader, and whatever pitchers opt out. Other than pitching, they may add an OF to push Grisham to 4th OF, add a RHB for DH (likely Cooper since he seems to be a good fit), and a catcher to platoon with Campusano.
Iriarte has a better chance of making the opening day roster than any other top prospect. He would be called up as a reliever though. Merrill could also make the opening day roster, but I think they want him to continue to play everyday and get the call when he can play consistently.
Snelling has moved up the ladder extremely fast and is dominating in AA already at 19. At some point next season you are going to see him in San Diego. He will make it to the majors long before Mazur.
Snell and Hader will be FA and Lugo and Wacha may opt out. As we have seen with Martinez and Suarez, the Padres are very proactive when it comes to keeping the pitchers they like, so I am confident in them keeping at least 2 of those 4 around.
With Avila finally showing that he is healthy and ready to step in, I don’t have any doubt about the Padres pitching staff being strong in 2024. .
After Martinez opts in, the Padres have a payroll of about $180 million including raises for arbitration eligible players next season. Seidler said that he expects payroll to be about the same as the $275 million they have on the books this season. I don’t see how anyone would be untouchable for the Padres this offseason.
They are favorites for both Yamamoto and Lee, so that would fill holes in the pitching staff and outfield and still leave another $60-70 million to spend on other players. If they want Sanchez back, he would not be expensive. Remember that the only deal he could get coming into 2023 was a minor league contract.
Even with Urias likely off the market, there is a glut of good starters on the FA market. In the MLBTR chat the other day they described it as the biggest in decades. The Padres will have no problem adding 1 or 2 to the rotation.
If they don’t resign Sanchez, they still have a good starter at catcher. Once he overcame those freak injuries, Campusano has been everything we have expected him to be. Both at the plate and behind it.
Actually Wacha is a team option for 2/32 –
Technically 2 at 1/16 but they both have to be accepted. Good chance for a negotiation for an extra year and power AAV maybe?
You don’t know what you are talking about. They already have 132M committed in 2024 between Machado, Tatis, Boegarts, Musgrove, Crone, Suarez, Kim, and Homer(released).
You have Wacha in which this team will except his 2Y/32M option, Soto’s 30ish M in ARB, Martinez 8M option, Carps 5.5M option. Grisham 5M in ARB. Thats another 60ish million right there which puts them at 197M. This doesn’t even include all the other ARB/rookie contracts. They are already well past 200M before FA.
If 275M is about what they will expect to spend they wont even be able to build a roster as good at this one for that price and this team is well below .500. Less than 70M to get the value of Snell, Hader, Lugo, and Sanchez just to maintain this well below .500 team.
Iriatre is the only prospect that will be ready before Sept. 2024 and he is a big risk. Merrill and Mazur might be ready in Sept. Salas and Snelling will no way be of help in 2024. Merrill has no where to play unless they put him in RF which he has almost no time at and is still developing. This is assuming they want Tatis as a CF too. Mazur still need time too because he just got to AA.
Let’s say the 200m is the correct number. That’s with wacha, who they may not pick up that option. If they don’t then they have 184m tied up. I don’t think they pick up wacha at that price because of his injury history. So let’s say they let him go. Lugo is also going to opt out.
So they need 3 pitchers. I could see them bringing one or both of wacha and lugo back on deals around 10m per.
Either way they would have over 90m to spend and only really need three starters. Prob will add some pen arms but I doubt they bring back hader. They have plenty of money to build a team next year and I promise you if they have to spend up to 300m they will. I’m not concerned in the slightest about the padres ability to put together a good team. How good will depend on how some of the hitters do next year. Pitching will be fine as we will get the guys we need. Of all the teams not to worry about spending it is the padres. The owner is all in.
I think that negotiating a deal with Wacha is probable. I doubt they will exercise the team option as it stands because of his consistent injury history, but a 3 year deal for a similar total or maybe as much as $36 million would be in line with the amount of innings and pitching performance.
Lugo maybe in line for a raise, but no where near what people are saying on these boards. A 30% raise would be max for him, but he certainly could get a multi-year deal.
Here you go.
baseball-reference.com/teams/SDP/san-diego-padres-…
Payroll (no options) (Guaranteed + Arb + Other) $174.1M
ALL of my figures include arbitration raises and pre-arb players. Try reading my comment.
Wacha’s team option will not be picked up as it is. He was injured too much both this season and consistently in his recent past. He has said he wants to continue to play for the Padres and its likely he gets a 3 year deal with a similar guaranteed amount or slightly more.
There was talk on HERE about Iriarte being called up this season. Per Josh Stein, he could break camp with the team next season a a reliever. If you have seen him pitch, you would know why. He is striking out nearly 16 per 9 in AA and regularly hitting triple digits. mlb.com/video/jairo-iriarte-k-s-the-side?t=mlb-pip…
Snelling, same thing. Kid has dominated at 3 levels. Even when he walks batters, he is not getting hit. youtu.be/sgspKbWMcJY?si=TE0Mvr7N4nanmk8A Go watch him pitch.
Like Iriarte there was talk on this site about Merrill being called up this season. The only reason he won’t be next season is getting him consistent playing time in San Diego. Merrill won’t be playing RF with Tatis there. Unless Tatis is moved to CF AND the Padres miss on Lee, he will be in the infield. Injuries happen and that is when Merrill will most likely be called up.
Mazur has no shot at a call up early in the season. He has lost his command after the call up to AA and is getting hit and hit hard. Its possible its the pre-tacked ball, but he has been missing his location on pitches so bad that he has a 1.455 WHIP.
To recap.
Payroll for 2024 is $174 million plus Carpenter and possibly Martinez unless other players exercise their player options.
Padres are front runners for Yamamoto and Lee which combined won’t cost $35 million. That leaves plenty of money to fill one starter, some middle relievers, and a RHB at DH. Totally doable.
If they miss on BOTH, that leaves plenty of money to go after 2 starters on the FA market in what is being called the largest starting pitching market in decades plus tht RHB for DH.
Iriarte will likely be the 1st call up and it could be to start the season.
Snelling will likely be an injury call up next season. He is that good.
Mazur will not be an early season call up. Unless he makes huge strides in his command its not likely at any point next season.
Last but not least, Sanchez is going to be relatively cheap. He was a minor league league signing in 2023 and his overall numbers are not going to get him a big deal. Multi-year possibly, but not more than $4-5 million AAV.
Anything else you would like to have me correct you on?
Pads Fans is outinleftfield, websoulsurfer and BaseballisLife!
With lugo, snell and wacha free agents they will need at least 3 starters. They will not be going into the season with Avila as one of the 5. They will need him at some point because guys will go down.
Position wise you could argue they don’t need anyone but my guess is they add another bat or two.
Bullpen they will need at least 3 arms.
So 3 starters, 3 relievers, a bat or two is the min they will need. With about 100m plus available. Perhaps merrill is one of those bats, perhaps the farm fills one of the reliever roles.
Snell wants to stay in San Diego so I could see him coming back if it’s around 20-25m a year but he is a Boris guy so prob pushes for a higher amount. If they can get three starters that avg around 20×3 that would leave 40m or so for the rest. Should be able to do that unless they add a Ohtani or bellinger type bat. If they do land another big bat then I think payroll will go up to closer to 300m.
Either way the padres are fine financially.
Of those 3, only Snell is definitely a FA after the season and nothing says that they will not bring one, two, or all three back. In past years they have been very good about acting to resign their own. See Martinez and Suarez for exhibit one and two.
Melvin said in his post game presser that even though he got thoroughly thrashed by the Dodgers that the Padres were expecting Avila to be part of the regular rotation in 2024, so that is a pretty decent indication of what they think of his ability. That might be a 6 man rotation and he is back of the train like Martinez was this season before moving to the pen, but its still part of the rotation.
Why will the pen need 3 arms? Why would that be an issue? They need that every season. The only issue is Hader is a FA. Middle relief has never been something that has been hard to come by.
If the Padres want to keep Wacha they can do that for $16 million for 2 years by picking up the team option. I think its more likely they renegotiate and keep him for 3 years at about $12 million each.
Lugo has had one decent season as a starter and will end up with about 135 IP. With the glut of starting pitching on the market, he could be looking at a multi year deal in the $10-12 million range. 3/30? 3/36? Neither are deal breakers.
There are at least 12 starters on the FA market that could easily fill that back of the rotation spot that Wacha and Lugo filled. mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/2023-24-mlb-free-agents… There are several that could be the #3 that Snell was supposed to start the season as including Yamamoto. Preller has gone to Japan to see him pitch in person so that would tell us there is real interest there. He is looking at somewhere around 8/200 because he just turned 25.
As you said, the Padres are fine financially. Greupner said they were not losing money this season and that was before he knew they would sell out close to 60 games and draw over 3 million.
The pen is an issue because it needs help especially with hader being a free agent. I am not sold that Suarez is up to the task of replacing him. Even if he is they will still need to add three quality bp arms which I’m sure they will.
I don’t think they pick up wacha’s opt, maybe they try and resign him and maybe they do the same with lugo. Both for me are depth options mainly because of injury history and lack of starting for lugo. Avila I think is best as the number 7 guy who will be used. They will need depth because starters will get hurt.
There are a number of pitchers out there this offseason though many will be expensive. I think they land one maybe two expensive guys for starters and then a 1-2 backend decent starters like a lugo.
What will be most interesting is what they do on the position side. I don’t think they will trade Soto or Kim. So do they try and add one of the few big bats in Ohtani and or bellinger.
If not then perhaps a guy like Duvall. The other big question is on the trade side. Will the padres turn and trade say a guy like Merrill for burns. With preller one never really knows who he will try and get but he will at least kick the tires on everyone.
Yay to Nick the Stick, nay to Fernando the llama
Could he be the spark the Pobres have been looking for?
Hernandez’s numbers in college and the minors look fabulous.
It doesn’t matter if he plays for the worst team in the league or the best one, he’s making his MLB debut! A wonderfully exclusive club populated by international heroes, great humanitarians and horrible criminals all alike.
I hope his family all gets to see his debut.
I thought Suarez appealed the suspension. Did I miss him dropping the appeal or it getting rejected?
He dropped it 10 games ago.
I have been to both Missions and Chihuahuas games this season and I can’t recall seeing him pitch. His numbers look decent, especially for the PCL.. I hope they translate and he can be an effective part of the pen next season.
He’s a good player, career reliever both at college and minors. Always had good numbers. For whatever reason the Stros never brought him up nor did they ever put him on the roster or had him compete for a job in spring training. Best of luck to him.
Tim Hill is BP.