The Brewers announced to reporters, including Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, that right-hander Brandon Woodruff underwent surgery today to repair the anterior capsule in his right shoulder. He is expected to miss most or perhaps all of the upcoming season.
Woodruff, 30, has been an excellent part of the Milwaukee rotation for many years now, but the shoulder issues hounded him throughout 2023. He first landed on the injured list in April after just two starts, diagnosed with a subscapular strain in his right shoulder. He returned in August and made nine more starts down the stretch but was left off the club’s playoff roster with another shoulder issue. Now it seems he’ll have to go under the knife, which puts his 2024 season in jeopardy.
The news is obviously bad for the Brewers, given that Woodruff has been such a valuable part of the club. He has a career earned run average of 3.10 in 680 1/3 innings, posting a 28.9% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate and 42.7% ground ball rate. His tally of 10.3 wins above replacement from 2020 to 2022, via FanGraphs, was among the top 10 among all pitchers in baseball. Even with the shoulder injuries this year, he still managed an ERA of 2.28 in his 11 outings.
Subtracting that kind of performance from their rotation would be an unwelcome development at any time, but it’s especially awkward right now. Woodruff is about to enter his final season of arbitration control, set for a raise on the $10.8MM salary he had in 2023. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for $11.6MM in 2024, a modest bump after his diminished workload in the past year.
As a lower-spending team, the Brewers have occasionally decided to trade notable players as their arbitration salaries increased, perhaps most infamously the Josh Hader deal from 2022. This winter has long been seen as a point where they might have to consider a similar move, with Woodruff, Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames all set to make eight-figure deals in their respective final arbitration years. It had been argued that perhaps the club could consider trading one of Burnes or Woodruff to bolster another part of the roster while leaving the rotation still in relatively decent shape, saving some money in the process.
With Woodruff now set for such an extended absence, such a plan becomes less feasible and also gives the Brewers a difficult choice of whether or not to tender Woodruff a contract at all. An eight-figure deal for a pitcher who might miss the entire season wouldn’t be an ideal use of resources, especially for a club that operates without a lot of financial wiggle room. It would be possible to make him a qualifying offer after 2024, but that would be contingent him getting healthy enough to justify such an overture, meaning there would be a lot of risk in simply signing him for one year and hoping for the best. But letting an incredibly talented pitcher like Woodruff depart for nothing isn’t appealing either.
Perhaps he and the club could work out some kind of multi-year deal that would allow him to rehab the injury in 2024 and stay in Milwaukee beyond that. Players set for significant absences such as this often find two-year deals, with the signing team aware that they are unlikely to get much value in the first season. But Woodruff would be under no obligation to sign such a deal with the Brewers. If they weren’t willing to offer him a deal he felt was fair, he could wait and see if they non-tender him, which would make him a free agent and allow him to pursue such deals with any club.
The non-tender deadline isn’t until November 17, meaning he and the club have over a month to work something out on the contract side of things. But circling back to the on-field picture, it subtracts a key piece of the 2024 rotation. Without Woodruff, the group still figures to have Burnes at the front, followed by Freddy Peralta, but things get murky after that. Wade Miley is likely to wind up a free agent since mutual options are rarely triggered by both sides. That leaves Adrian Houser, Colin Rea, Eric Lauer, Robert Gasser and Caleb Boushley as some of the potential rotation members. Aaron Ashby could be in the mix as well but missed all of 2023 due to his own shoulder injury.
It’s possible the club finds an acceptable rotation in there but there’s no doubt it would be better with a healthy Woodruff. Even in the hypothetical scenario where Woodruff or Burnes were on the trading block, that would have at least allowed the club to address a different part of the team, making it a rough blow no matter how you look at it. The Brewers just won the Central division, making the playoffs for the fifth time in six years, but it might not be as easy next year. The Cubs, Pirates and Reds all showed signs that they are ready to emerge from their respective rebuilds and the Cardinals figure to be aggressive in bouncing back from a lost season.
Bummer
Ruff
If Counsell was remotely considering coming back he probably isn’t anymore. Burnes will be P.O. or traded, No Woodruff, Mets aren’t looking so bad anymore. Still sorry when good pitchers go down. Stinks.
Yeah, he’ll go running directly into the arms of an organization that even with Stearns is still a ownership dumpster dumpster fire being doused with gasoline by the hyper-critical NY media. It’s not impossible, but I don’t think he wants to leave his family and home state behind.
Which good pitchers do the Mets have other than Senga at this point? they sure don’t have the trade capital to get Burnes.
They do have one thing everybody looks for. A rich, Dumb owner who throws money around like it has an expiration date.
But who he (Cohen) acquires is typically well past their expiration date. Money doesn’t expire, performance/age does.
On a Manager? LMAO
Seems like Cohen is going to stay out of it and let Stearns do his thing. Stearns with a lot of money to spend is a lot likelier to win a title than Stearns with just a little money to spend.
@Unclemike: Cohen is not dumb.
Some random troll calls the richest owner in the game dumb. Irony.
When I see an owner come in and thinks he can play real life fantasy and win a title in one year, The only word that jumps into anybody with a brains minds has to be dumb. He wasn’t the first and he won’t be the last because there’s no denying all those big money moves were him, Eppler isn’t that dumb. Although maybe I’m wrong because he’s under investigation. Sorry you’re not clever enough to read between the lines there Carlos.
Carlos
I see no reason to see much correlation between wealth and intelligence
And it’s likely that wealth causes intelligence since wealthy people can afford better nutrition and health care.
Maybe I used the wrong word with Cohen. Should of used Naive, Because like I said he’s not the first to try it and won’t be the last. But then again, If you’ve seen others fail at it and then do it yourself, Is that dumb? Ah this is a vicious circle, I’m out.
“Dumb owner who throws money around like it has an expiration date.”
It’s crazy to me that people still don’t understand what the Mets were/are trying to do. When Cohen took over, the farm system was bad and the major league team was average at best. Cohen’s publicly stated goal was to build up the farm system while in the meantime spending big to get the major league team competitive. The whole “throwing money around” and “dumb” thing makes no sense. The plan worked last year, this year it didn’t. The only old dudes he threw big money at were Scherzer and Verlander and both of those were very short deals for a reason. And then when they didn’t work out, they pivoted and got some great prospects in return.
I have no idea why fans are obsessed with how much money Cohen is spending. It’s his money. If he wants to “throw money around” to pay off Scherzer/Verlander’s deals in order to get back better prospects, good! Should he be like Nutting or Fisher and not spend?
Also, what other “bad” deals has Cohen done? Lindor is working out well. Diaz suffered a freak injury but could still be worth it. Nimmo lived up to his deal this year (another 4+ WAR year). Senga turned out to be a great deal. McNeil had an off year but still put up 2.3 WAR at only $6 million.
Others:
-Canha – worked out well, got some production, traded him
-Pham – same
-David Robertson – same
-Taijuan Walker – solid production for what he cost, let him walk in FA (not a bad move)
-Quintana – missed over half of the season but pitched well
-Ottavino – worked out well
-Narvaez – didn’t work out, only a $7 million player option remaining
-Marte – was great last year, awful this year. Could be a pretty bad deal if he can’t turn it around but only 2 years, $40 million remaining
cct
“I have no idea why fans are obsessed with how much money Cohen is spending. ”
A targeted media strike by the owners to convince fans that billionaires shedding their money to make a better product is bad and that labor should be paid as little as possible.
@Unclemike1526: Steve Cohen didn’t get to be worth $19.8 billion by being dumb. And he certainly doesn’t “throw money around like it has an expiration date.”
And it’s better to spend money trying to win and fail than to be cheap and not try like many other owners.
And he didn’t really fail in 2022, as they won 101 games and made the playoffs.
You should try to think a bit before you spew.
I hate the Mets but Cohen is dangerously smart for a “non-baseball” guy. He’s been a fan but he didn’t know anything and has made some really smart things happen. Braves fan for life but he scares me. He knows what he wants and has the money to buy it.
Eppler is dumb and was at minimum an adviser
@rct I stopped posting this a while back because this site is just a dumpster full of 14 year old trolls. Doesn’t matter how hard you hammer it in their heads, you’re arguing with idiots. It’s very well documented tbat the Dodgers did the same exact thing when they started their rebuild. And that’s what he’s shooting for. Bump the payroll up to try to win now while rebuilding the org into hopefully a sustained winner.
@Blue Baron You’re arguing with morons. Most likely just jealous that their team spends pennies and that at least Cohen tried to win while rebuilding the farm, unlike their thief owners.
@LonnieB: As strong as the Braves are, why do you waste your energy hating the Mets or any other team? What harm have they ever caused you?
Do you hate the Phillies because you think they took something to which the Braves were entitled and played better, especially displaying superior pitching?
I don’t hate the Braves and Phillies. It’s more sportsmanlike to tip my hat and acknowledge that they are and were better than the Mets this year.
The only thing I hate is that idiotic tomahawk chop, which offends indigenous Americans and looks like people saluting Hitler in WWII Germany IMO.
Oh, and I almost but don’t quite hate Craig Kimbrel for his affectation of trying to look like a vulture or something.
rct
It’s crazy to me that people still don’t understand what the Mets were/are trying to do.
=========================
This sounds a lot like all the Padres responses. All the moves were good, but the playoff thing, not so very much.
I absolutely don’t believe the Phillies took something entitled to the Braves. The Braves dropped the ball and forgot how to hit. The Phillies are hot and showing it. I hate the Mets because their players, fans and FO have always reminded me of some rat that crawled out of the gutter.
I don’t like the Phillies, marlins or nationals either but the Mets are the scum.
Way to advance a conversation, calling millions of people “scum” based on personal interaction with a handful of people. Sounds like something a rat or actual scum would say.
@LonnieB: Would you like for people to say things like that about you Braves fans and the tomahawk chop as if you’re all saluting Hitler?
What are you so angry about?
If bad contracts didn’t totally screw teams, then it wouldn’t be a concern. If it was like football with no guaranteed contracts, who cares what the owner spends, but teams with poor performing free agents, block potentially more productive players, but the team is commited to large contract with mediocre or poor play, and is bad for team chemistry too. So its not the money spent, its the unintended bad results that do happen from the big money spent, look at the Angel, Padres.
Totally agree.
Sure hope Stearns put in his contract a meddling owner clause.
They have more than enough trade capital to get burnes, i just hope they dont try because it would be an overpay. They’ll likely sign yanamoto.
lol. The Mets just redid their entire farm system with 2 trades. The Mets can trade for any player they want at this point.
The Mets are 100% going to be worse next season.
Says the guy who has no way of knowing.
Open mouth, insert foot.
How can the Mets be worse next year? They were terrible this year and had to work hard to get there. They will improve just by accident.
It does seem the Mets job is Counsells if he wants it. I do think the Mets should try and get Burnes also and immediately sign him long term.
There goes his payday and there goes the Brewers chance of trading him for a few pieces. Should have traded him at the deadline knowing they weren’t going anywhere anyway.
Hindsight is also on sale this week.
xbox.com/en-US/games/store/hindsight/9NKMWCHLVCJ5
Not going anywhere? My sarcasm detector seems to be broken. They won the NL Central by 9 games, had a great run prevention team based on piching and defense. They were in contention the entire season…
Don’t mind him. He’s out on weekend release fron the cave. Just keep your fingers away—he’ll bite those right off for a delicious snack.
Apparently, that’s the case with this guy. Jeez…
They knew. Just like they knew when they trader Hader.
> they knew when they trader Hader.
Don’t be a trader hater.
Finishing 1st is not going anywhere? Do the 7 teams that have already been knocked out in their first round know this?
Fan base would have revolted. It happened last year with Hader deal. I’ve been a Brewers fan since 1970. I was realistic with the offense being bad. Most fans thought they could win with that lineup. I rebuild could be in the immediate future.
Yeah, the Brewers didn’t go anywhere, they just won the division for the 3rd time in 6 years. Hmmm, not going anywhere is subjective but winning a division in baseball starting with Spring Training is not something to blow off.
Glad they got a free tshirt and hat out of it.
Is making the playoffs and getting swept even considered being in the playoffs?
They won as many playoff games as the A.s this year
…and the Dodgers, Rays, Orioles and Blue Jays.
….Royals, Rockies, Cardinals,
0 is still 0
Sure, since the team and players both get a nice financial bonus just for getting in, not to mention the money they got for broadcasting two home playoff games on TV.
Dude, just ignores that 3/4 teams still in are wild cards. One only won 84 games. You have to be in it to have a chance guys. Not exactly rocket science. Yes, making it is making it, period.
Best team in a weak division. Good pitching staff. Underrated. Are needing a few more bats.
Bridesmaid never a bride. Brewers fans accept it. They won the N.L. Central world championship just like Josh Hader said.
Brewer fans are among the sheepish in MLB , it was so worth it to trade 5 time allstar to be Mike Brantley for 6 weeks of CC Sabithia and to have CC give up a grand slam, 1 and done with no realistic chance to win the WS. I hear over and over what a great trade that was, it brought such joy to Brewerland. That was 2008, Then 2009, 2010 below .500. Then trade the farm system for a 1 1/4 years of Greinke. Cain, Escobar , Ordorizzi . This was applauded as brilliant because they made a one year playoff run. I make the case the small market team would have had better success trading one or 2 of Weeks, Hart , Fielder, for pitching, Cain was a gold glover, they kept poor fielding players and traded younger players like Cain, Escobar with good gloves, and young pitchers like Odorizzi, Jeffries. Terrible model for a small market team and the sheep fans applaud.
Any team that makes the playoffs has a realistic chance to win the World Series, especially in MLB. It just hasn’t worked out for the Brewers yet.
Huh, I’ve never heard any Brewer fans complain about that trade. Sabathia was electrifying for the Brewers, he singlehandedly carried them into the playoffs
Brantley was a good return for the Indians and had a couple of good seasons for them but was oft-injured
I was just on a thread where they asked , who would you want to have batting with bases load down by 2 runs, 2 outs in
bottom of ninth. 5 baseball fans picked Mike Brantley. The Brewers are a small market team, they gave up 6 years of Brantley for 6 weeks of CC Sabithia, only for him to give up grand slam, one and done in playoffs. The Brewers might have made World Series in 2011, with Fielder, Weeks, Braun, Hart, Greinke etc. I have friends that went to Packer Game with Mike Maddox , pitching coach, he said some people in organization wanted the Brewers to not make playoffs, because it was conditional trade on prospect list, depending on if Brewers made playoffs.
Brewers have Chourio ready to boost offense and always seem to have a underrated arm that shows up at near all star level hiding in minors. They’ll be fine
This year was Uribe, next up Misiorowski and we’ll see about Gasser, pitched well 2nd half
Say goodbye to trading Burnes this winter
That’s really the only silver lining here is Burnes is not going to be traded.
Has to be. No choice. If they don’t he leaves with nothing in return.
They’ll still be able to give him a qualifying offer next year, and even if they couldn’t, losing him for nothing is acceptable in order to have him for one last run while they still have a good team and can certainly afford his arbitration salary now.
Actually, It may make it more likely. They can trade Burnes for hitting prospects (Coby Mayo?) while they wait for Ashby, Gasser and Misiorowski to ramp up in the minors. They arent dead for 2025. Who know, Woody could sign a team-friendly two-year deal while rehabbing and be back to form in 2025.
It may be a short-term rebuild, but with a smart trade and Chourio coming due, 2025 could be awesome.
Brewers won 92 games this season. Woodruff only made 11 starts and pitched 55 innings. No need for a rebuild, more like reload.
True, but I’d trade Burnes anyway to get a big piece of that reload. There just isn;t a lot in Free agency to help the lineup that the Brewers can afford..
Problem there is any team looking for an ace to compete will also want to retain all their mlb pieces for the same reason.
You got to give talent to get talent. Your take applies more to a midseason trade than an offseason trade. Offseason trades are far more likely to involve big league talent on both sides of a deal.
Trading Burnes only makes sense if it is for comparable MLB talent to balance the roster.
Kicking the can down the road isn’t worth it. Chourio is more likely to be a bust than franchise savior. More likely he will be a solid contributor and hopefully eventual all star.
Meanwhile the Cards and Cubs will be building up their new dynasties while the Reds and Pirates mature into theirs.
Woodruff can do that for more money with a bigger market team.
You don’t want to start a rebuild too late, but you also don’t want to start it too early, either. By keeping Burnes and making the right offensive moves this offseason, they’ll still probably be a highly competitive team next year.
He’ll never be the same pitcher again. Sad.
Agreed. I’ve had surgery on mine a few times. It never returns to normal.
Tommy Greene was a very good pitcher for the ‘93 Phils pennant team. He developed shoulder problems younger than 30 years old and never got it right.
I always feel bad when I hear a pitcher needs shoulder surgery. The cases where a pitcher comes back and is anywhere near his old form are the outliers.
Exhibit A being Johan Santana. He had the same surgery not long after his no-hitter and never pitched another game.
At least it’s still a better success rate than Thoracic Outlet Surgery.
It would seem to be in both parties best interest to work something out. No way Woodruff is going to get a big payday for 2025 coming off injury, which will be his age 32 season. The best thing he will get is a two year contract, a low rate for his injury year and an incentive laden deal for the following year. So he has to decide if he wants to do that with Milwaukee, or somewhere else. Unless he absolutely hates Milwaukee, seems best to go with the team you have been with for this long. They know him and he knows them.
I am not sure but I have heard that Colin Rae has language in his contract that says he is a FA.
Correct, since he played overseas his contract allows him to bypass his arbitration and declare FA. Considering, he showed solid #4-5 starter results he will enter the market.
2 year extension or non tender.
I believe Rea is a free agent as well. Think I even read that on this very site.
As for Burnes, I’m not sure this news sways the possibility that he’s traded one way or the other. Maybe they won’t be as active in shopping him, but teams will likely believe they need to up any offer they previously considered to pry him away. And Arnold (or Mark A) isn’t going to pass up saving all that dough while continuing to add prospects or young mlb talent to the mix.
Reasons for countless arm/elbow/shoulder injuries: overuse, too much weight training, overuse, max velocity on every pitch, overuse and, oh yeah, overuse.
Pitchers these days are basically throwing all year long. They need to give their arms/shoulders some time to rest and rejuvenate. Just my opinion
Overuse? Look at how guys used to throw 250 a decade ago and now don’t even hit 200. I agree with the rest, though.
That’s a fair argument, but throwing and training – basically – year round taxes the arm. Fatigue can lead to mechanical changes, causing injury, too.
Im thinking more the emphasis on maximizing spin rates could be leading to more (or maybe more severe) injuries
Cashman will trade for him.
Would you prefer Eric Cartman as the GM?
It’s going to be interesting to see what the Brewers do. They are maxed out financially and entering the last year with Burnes and Adames. Now Woodruff is out for most of the year. Maybe they should look to move Burnes and Adames. Tough decision. I’d probably trade them both if Counsell leaves and do a soft rebuild while their prospects mature.
Keeping or trading two top pitchers should have absolutely nothing to do with Craig Counsell’s decision.
It won’t but safe to say he’s gone.
The Brewers were due a very large tv rights check from bankrupt ballys in April. That check was delayed (not even sure if it is still outstanding) Hence, their timid approach to spending last offseason. Might not be accurate to assume budgets this offseason are equally stringent.
Yeah, but if they non-tender Woodruff, that means they should have enough money to keep at least one of the two others.
Brewers suck at trades ! Beware stearn lovers !!!
Hader was underwhelming. But good lord, 500 innings out of woodruff wasn’t enough ? Trade the car in before the wheels fall off ! Same w burnes, you kept the guy to the lowest point of his value. Adames has the tiniest shred left too.
It’s a sellers market too. There’s no excuses !
Brewers are about to be bottom feeders for a long time due to poor planning.
#2 farm system with a slew of productive rookies already at the mlb level. Brewers are not bottom feeders.
@Big whiffa: Willy Adames, William Contreras, and Christian Yelich call BS on you.
Whiff!
So, non tender him then try to bring him back on a backloaded 2 year contract? Problem is every team in baseball will try to do that as well. But tender him and you get potentially nothing for 15mil as he is a free agent in 2025. Interesting dilemma.
^^^ this. + Brewers have exclusive negotiating rights until 11/17. After surgery Woodruff could very well be inclined to ink such an offer. Fiscal stability/familiarity/medical staff continuity and a chance to rebuild value.
Good point, but with the uncertainty regarding Counsell, he may just accept the non tender and have everyone bid on him.
I imagine they’d have to work out a deal before the tender deadline, if they can’t, they’ll non tender him.
Odds are they do work out that deal, as I can’t imagine teams getting into a bidding war over an oft injured pitcher who will miss all of 24.
If Woody can somehow stay healthy in 25, then he will get a big deal.
Russell Branyan was a guy most people probably forgot about. He had tremendous power.
Non tender is the way to go. His market will be tepid in 2025 since this is shoulder surgery. That rarely ends well for a pitcher.
Yes, I’m not as optimistic as some on here who think he’ll even be close to his usual form
I hope they none tender Woodruff and the Cardinals swoop in and nab him, aka, the way they did with Chris Carpenter.
I don’t hope that. Shoulder issues rarely end well for pitchers.
Sad news. Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta had a good run for the Brewers the last few years.
Typical Brewers luck. This franchise is cursed.
Brewers I’m sure are reaching out to teams what they’d trade for Woodruff should they tender him a contract that they could them pay down for them acquiring. It feels like it’s a sign from above to retool completely. Trade Burnes, Peralta,
Adames, and Williams. Contreras too honestly because they’ll be covered behind the plate before end of next season. Make Yelich a 1b. Return Chourio at SS position. Have a horrible 2024 with upside performances and be ready to go 2025 with Ashby, Misiorowski, Gasser, and Rodriquez. Plus I’m sure some #2-3 SP they acquired after all these moves.
You can’t trade a guy about to undergo potentially career-ending surgery.
Does the name Johan Santana ring a bell?
What about the Johan?
I’ve been watching the Brewers for far too long as a Chicago fan, and I wouldn’t put it past them to make a trade for a starter, and field a competitive team in 2024 again.
Their current GM is better than Stearns in my opinion. Stearns had Hader, Williams, Woodruff on the team before he started. They have a lot of potential starting position players to be added in next few years from the farm, so they can trade for or sign pitchers.
Stearns began in 2015, and midseason they traded gomez and got hader back in the deal. They also drafted burnes and traded for peralta and yelich in his time there.
Wrong, Stearns started in Oct. Doug Melvin traded for Hader. Melvin drafted Burnes and Woodruff, as well. Tbh Stearns is terrible at drafting. Stearns did trade for Peralta and Yelich.
Ah okay, stearns started in fall 2015. But then he still drafted burnes in 2016, not melvin.
Oh Man. Free agent year 2025.
Does 2/20 sound fair? 5 million next year, 10 the year after, and a 5 MM buyout on a 15 milliom player option
IMO. articles like this would be a lot better if they gave a brief history of the prognoses for injuries like this. A lot of the information in the article, while useful is either known or easily researched.
Trying to assess what type of success can be expected is a lot more difficult for people like me.
If a 100% recovery in 2025 is expected, then $20M/2 sounds fair. But without knowing whether his expected ERA is 3.10 or 4.10, it is impossible to make that call.
Gonna be a tough off season for Brewers. Stearns is gone. Good chance Counsell follows him to NYC. And now, no Woodruff in 2024.
The latter may influence Counsell as to whether he stays or goes. With Byrnes, Woodruff and Peralta, Brewers have a pretty good Top Three SP.
, Counsell, with those three in place, could easily see the Brewers winning the NL Central again. Now, winning the NL Central becomes cloudier increasing the chances he moves on.
The Free Agent market is very weak this winter. There are a few solid starting pitchers but there are a bunch of teams looking for pitching. These guys are going to be making top dollar because teams will be competing for their services.
The Brewers should offer Woodruff a 3 or 4 year deal with the first year low but maxing out the last 2 years. Maybe offer 10 mil for 2024, then 10 mil in ’25 and a couple $20 mil years.
If he doesn’t agree to that then just cut him loose. Fill out the rotation with aging veterans and prospects. No way they can compete for top pitchers.
Do the Brewers run it back with small additions in 2024 or do they blow it up?
I think Counsell’s decision will have a big say in their future direction.
If he walks away they are far more likely to trade Woodruff and Adames and blow it up.
Burnes, not Woodruff.
Never be the same picture
If they can’t sign him to an extension, of course they’re going to non-tender him! Losing him to free agency for nothing is MUCH preferable to wasting $11M on almost nothing, especially for a smaller market team like the Brewers.