Last offseason’s free agent class, while headlined by Yankees slugger Aaron Judge, is perhaps most notable for the quartet of free agent shortstops that stood near the top of the class: Trea Turner, who signed with the Phillies; Xander Bogaerts, who landed in San Diego; Carlos Correa, who returned to the Twins after physical issues scuttled deals in both San Francisco and Queens; and Dansby Swanson, who joined the Cubs. With the 2023 season all but complete and free agency nearly upon us once again, let’s take a look at the four shortstops, their performance in 2023, and their remaining contracts:
Trea Turner (Phillies)
Contract: 10 years, $272.72MM remaining covering age 31-40 seasons
Turner’s first season in Philadelphia was a difficult one for much of the year. After riding a hot stretch through the first week of the season, the next two months were nothing short of brutal as Turner slashed just .210/.259/.341 over his next 51 games. At that point in the season, the Phillies were the fourth-place team in the NL East with a disappointing 27-32 record. Of course, the team would turn things around from there, ultimately winning 90 games en route to a second consecutive NLCS appearance. As the Phillies improved, Turner followed suit, slashing a far stronger .288/.347/.517 the rest of the way. Those solid numbers are primarily thanks to Turner’s fantastic performance down the stretch this season; he slashed an incredible .317/.371/.629 in August and September. Turner’s success has continued into the postseason, as he’s slashed a whopping .500/.538/.917 during the Phillies’ postseason run to this point.
Taken together, Turner’s weak start to the season saw him post his worst campaign since 2018 as he slashed .266/.320/.459 with a 108 wRC+ while posting weak defensive metrics (-5 Outs Above Average, -12 Defensive Runs Saved). That being said, he still provided considerable value on the basepaths, going a perfect 30-for-30 in stolen base attempts, and his strong finish to the season could indicate that Turner can regain his offensive form of the previous three seasons (139 wRC+ 2020-2022). Turner’s 3.8 fWAR this season was the ninth-best mark among qualified shortstops in 2023.
Xander Bogaerts (Padres)
Contract: 10 years, $254.55MM remaining covering age 31-40 seasons
Like Turner, Bogaerts had an up-and-down start to his 2023 campaign. His first month in San Diego hardly could’ve gone better, as Bogaerts slashed .308/.400/.514 through the end of April, but a nagging wrist issue saw his production plummet in May, when he slashed just .200/.283/.263 in 25 games. From there, Bogaerts saw his production even out, as he slashed .300/.353/.462 from June 1 onward, allowing him to finish the season with stats largely in line with his consistent career numbers, even as the 82-80 Padres fell short of expectations. In 665 trips to the plate this season, Bogaerts slashed .285/.350/.440 with a wRC+ of 120. That performance is good for his sixth-consecutive season with a 120 wRC+ or better, and his eighth-consecutive full season with more than 3.0 fWAR. Defensive metrics were mixed on Bogaerts this season, as he posted a -4 DRS but a +3 OAA. Bogaerts’s 4.4 fWAR this season was the seventh-best mark among qualified shortstops in 2023.
Carlos Correa (Twins)
Contract: Five years, $166.67MM remaining covering age 29-33 seasons; four vesting options could take total to nine years, $236.67 remaining covering age 29-37 seasons
After failing physicals with both the Giants and the Mets this past offseason before returning to Minnesota, Correa saw his health remain a focal point throughout the 2023 campaign. Though he avoided the injured list for much of the year, both his offense and defense suffered as he battled plantar fasciitis for most of the season. Typically an above-average offensive threat and strong defender at shortstop, Correa posted the worst season of his career this year as he slashed just .230/.312/.399 (96 wRC+) while posting middling defensive metrics (+1 OAA, -2 DRS). That being said, after going on the injured list for the final weeks of the regular season, Correa impressed in the playoffs with a .409/.458/.545 slash line in six games as the Twins won their first postseason series since 2002. The injury marred campaign makes Correa difficult to project going forward, though as the youngest of the four top shortstops from last offseason’s class, he has youth on his side. Correa’s 1.1 fWAR this season was 17th among the 21 qualified shortstops in 2023.
Dansby Swanson (Cubs)
Contract: Six years, $163MM remaining covering age 30-35 seasons
Swanson’s first year in Chicago was a difficult one to predict, as the 29-year-old was coming off a career year in 2022 where he slashed a career-best .277/.329/.447 while posting elite defensive metrics. Ultimately, the bat fell back to Earth a bit in 2023 as Swanson slashed a solid but unexceptional .244/.328/.416 that was good for roughly league average (104 wRC+), while oscillating between considerable hot streaks (including a midsummer stretch where Swanson slugged .618 with nine home runs in 99 plate appearances) and equally significant cold stretches (including a .161/.254/.304 slash line in his final 14 games of the season). One thing that remained consistent throughout Swanson’s season, however, was his stellar defense. Swanson was the best defensive shortstop in baseball this year according to both DRS (+18) and OAA (+20), allowing him to post a strong 4.9 fWAR that was outstripped by only Corey Seager, Francisco Lindor, and Bobby Witt among qualified shortstops in 2023.
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So, one year in, which contract is looking the best to MLBTR readers? Turner remains an exciting talent on the basepaths and finished the season strong, but defensive miscues and his cold start to the season could be early signs of declining production. Bogaerts remained consistent as ever in all facets of the game, pairing solid offense with average defense, while Correa’s superstar potential took a backseat in an injury-marred season. Meanwhile, Swanson flashed incredible defense but was essentially league average on offense, as is consistent with his profile in recent years. Which player would you most like to have on your team in 2024 and beyond? Have your say in the poll below.
(poll link for app users)
Xander had the best overall season of all these cats. Was the best offensive shortstop by a wide margin and basically league avg defense.
Doesn’t really matter. Boegaerts has 10 years left on his contract. He’s not going to be playing shortstop for most of the years. The $25MM AAV does make those later years more palatable as the AAV of the league will probably rise a bit over time.
2013’s qualifying offer was only $14MM. It’s increased to $20MM this year. So in 10 years, you’d speculate the QO might be something like $29MM. Boegaerts still won’t be cheap by any means, but in today’s MLB dollars, he’d probably be like $15MM for his final contract year.
Still not a good contract at all on the long end.
Bogaerts and Turner have the same amount of years and Turner’s game is based on speed. Bogaerts also makes less money. Bogaert’s deal is looking much better as of today.
So does Turner and he is leading in the poll. What does QO have to do with how the contract will age?
Turner’s game is based on speed. ($27.3 MM AAV)
Bogaert’s game is based on hitting. ($25.5 MM AAV)
Swanson’s game is based on defense ($25.3 MM AAV)
Correa is based on a combination of defense and offense.($33.33MM AAV)
Speed goes first. Defense 2nd because at SS its largely based on speed. Offense regresses at a predictable rate and is the last to go.
So which of those should age best? Swanson because its shortest then Bogaerts because he is the best offensive player.
So far, 3 of those players put up performance that at least provided equal value to cost. Swanson and Bogaerts provided surplus value. Only Correa was a net loss.
Wide margin?? Lol, Swanson had 3 more HR and a higher WAR than X. Turner had 5 more 2B, 7 more HR, and 11 more SB than X. I think you’re getting reality mixed up with your Show franchise.
I certainly wouldn’t call it by a “wide margin” Fairly significant margin when compared to Turner. Dansby Swanson was better than both of them from a WAR perspective due to superior defense.
Bogaerts vs. Turner vs. Swanson
fWAR 4.4 vs. 3.8 vs. 4.9
bWAR 4.4 vs. 3.6 vs. 4.8
.285/.350/.440 OPS .790 wRC+ 120 Bogaerts
.266/.320/.459 OPS .778 wRC+ 108 Turner
.244/.328/.416 OPS .744 wRC+ 104 Swanson
PETCO is not a hitter friendly park. Citizens Bank Park is very hitter friendly which is why you see the bigger spread in wRC+. The difference in WAR is notable.
120 OPS+. 99 OPS+.
That’s 21% difference on offense. A large margin.
There is no question that Swanson is a better defensive player. There is also no question that Bogaerts is the better offensive player.
@BaseballisLife – OP was comparing Turner to all other shortstops, but especially Bogaerts, not Swanson. I added Swanson just for reference.
OPS+ 120 vs. 111.
wRC+ 120 vs. 108.
Significant, but hardly “wide” or “large”
Bogaerts – 120 OPS+. 120 wRC+
Swanson – 99 OPS+, 104 wRC+
Turner – 111 OPS+, 108 wRC+
Its a decently wide margin on offense.
Dansby Swanson
The total dollar amount for the contract isn’t terrible from a financial perspective and you get part of his prime years but won’t have to deal with what to do with an old man playing SS by the time the contract ends, like the Phillies and Padres. Correa’s a close second.
That Trea Turner contract is not going to age well. He already is starting to look like he is starting to decline a little.
Swanson is my choice as well. He is the most affordable. He has the shortest contract. He is the best of the 4 defensively, which is the most important thing in a SS. With that being said, none of them earned their money this year, though he was probably closest.
How much does Trea Turner have to do with the pitchers rising ERAs?
You tell me.
I don’t know. That’s difficult to measure but it has to be part of it.
This is a near-impossible choice.
Correa at his best would be the top choice. But he’s always been injury-prone (not even factoring in the ankle plate), and I just don’t think his bat profiles well in Minnesota.
Swanson’s glove is great, but before long he’s going to basically be Brandon Crawford. As a Giants fan, I don’t mind that. But I just don’t see his overall game running with the other guys.
Xander is consistent, like the column said. But does he have any big years ( e.g. 2019) left in that bat?
Turner is probably the player I want for the next two to three years. But if his defense is already meh, then any decline in those quick-twitch muscles would mean his overall value really would start to sink.
Short-term: Turner
Long-term: Xander
Postseason: Correa
Safest pick because he’s not your offensive centerpiece: Swanson
Moonlight,
I considered the poll similarly as justification can be made for all 4. You want the shortest commitment? You want the consistency? You want the best next 2-3 years? You want the cheapest?
One size does not fit all is the answer here.
I went with Correa. Rough season, but I expect a big bounce back next year. He hit exceptionally well in the playoffs and his comments suggest he’s hungry to work on his speed in the offseason. Shorter contracts are much less risky.
He’s only got 5 years left guaranteed, ending at age 33. If he declines, the Twins will just keep him off the field enough for Correa to not hit the vesting options and Correa will walk.
Swanson’s contract takes him through age 35 so he might not be at SS by then, but his bat was just about where you’d actually expect without the elevated BABIP. .744 OPS vs a career .739 and last season’s .776 isn’t bad at all. Swanson was a good signing. That said, it only takes one step back at the plate or in the field and Swanson turns into and older 2023 Correa.
I’m curious what it is about Minnesota in particular that doesn’t fit Correa’s bat profile.
Trea Turner is underrated but I still chose Swanson. Turner was especially underrated with the Washington Nationals and I don’t understand the contempt people have for his contract. If anything, you sign a player like him opposed to the Judge’s and Stanton’s of the world
Leaning Turner but I see him being moved to OF before the end of the deal
Nah, the outfield is too crowded in Philly. I think if he has another defensive year like this one, the Phillies will move Stott back to SS and Turner will end up at 2B.
Yeah, that NLDS Turner had the worst team defense with 3 errors in 4-game series. Considering he has another 10 years on that deal…he will need a lot of more standing ovations if his bat goes cold with that D.
Correa. Cheaper, younger, and probably better at least in a few years.
I love it that Carlos went to the playoffs and SF and Mets did not! Hah!
Correa just posted his worst season (below league average offensively) and only has 4 years left at 30+ AAV. Anything is possible but I don’t like the odds of him getting better quick and making this an overall “better” contract. He might rebound with a good year and average out the first 2 years but still he is going to age just like the other candidates on the list and isn’t exempt from those effects. Alternatively, that injury that scared the Mets and SF might rear its ugly head and he never hits above league average.
Granted you don’t have him in his old man years to bog down your team payroll but hey, the goal on the other longer contracts was to get a big bang for your approximately 30 mil / year during their prime, right? X gave that with his injured wrist. Trea has a reasonable likelihood of doing it for a few years and Dansby wasn’t as far off as Carlos.
I’m not liking Carlos’ contract based on his 2023 results. His post season results were great but he didn’t get them into the post season and can’t carry them next year.
Correa played with plantar fasciitis all year. With 2 weeks off, he looked dramatically better. I expect a big bounce back. He’s still in his 20s.
Correa also missed the most games – despite being younger – his contract may be the cheapest, but it comes with the most injury risk based on at least 2 teams (SF, NYM) saying no thanks due to medicals. If nothing else, you know that X, Swanson, Trea will give you innings — and you can’t improve that contract on the IL (unless they were smart and went with a premium insurance policy).
The higher the salary, the higher the premium for that insurance. Plus Correa’s situation is a pre existing condition which won’t be covered.
Solid point
Swanson quietly accumulated the highest WAR of the 4 so far with the less expensive and shorter contract. The Cubs will get the best value out of their contract.
Will his defense age well is the question? Since most of his WAR is from that. That’s a lot to pay for a defensive first SS.
Its also a lot to pay for a player that really shouldn’t be playing SS. Other than C, no position is as important defensively as SS.
Which contract looks the best?
A.) Turner. The Phillies are World Series contenders for the next handful of years and that the entire goal of signing free agents
B.) Swanson, shortstop is a defense first position and he’s the best one out there. Cubs are entering their competitive window and I don’t see much drop off happening as long as he doesn’t have a career altering injury over the next five years.
C.) Correa. The injury history and struggles are worrisome but the Twins sit a top the weak central division and should be playoff contenders for a couple more years.
D.) Xander. Sorry but this deal wouldn’t look so bad had the Padres not re-signed Machado as well. Bogaerts defense isn’t great, the deal is for ever in length and the Padres cannot keep from shooting themselves in the foot. I’d be shocked if the Padres win the division even once over the duration of that deal.
Not to mention that the Padres will paying him until he’s 40
That is the same for Turner though. Say what you will but X just posted the better season between the 2 of them.
The problem isn’t Xanders contract in terms of dollars or years, the problem is the Padres are a mess.
He may go on to put up better numbers than any of the other shortstops but who cares if it doesn’t lead to playoffs and playoff success? The team being in bad shape leaves that contract in bad shape.
Padres prospect development has been awful under Preller, they are throwing money around but tacking on too many years to get AAVs down for luxury tax concerns on the short term.
Odds are, the Padres take a step back next season to at the very least reset the luxury tax. If they don’t trade Soto, they are going to be set back again in 2025, if they do trade Soto, maybe they can catch lightening in a bottle with the prospect haul.
Padres need to dump a bunch of guys, add some prospects and hasty reload (a la Mets) if they hope to get out of this hole in the near future.
but tacking on too many years to get AAVs down for luxury tax concerns on the short term.
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It’s like the NYY with DJLM. Instead of maybe $80M/5, you give him $90M/6. You save a few bucks early on, only to write off the final $15M of the salary.at the end.
XB should be at 2B with Kim, the better defensive player, at SS. Cronenworth might even be the better choice at 2B with XB moving to 1B. As long as SDP play their stars to appease their egos, instead of where they will best help the team, they will be a mess.
Let me correct that for you: You save a few bucks early on, only to cripple the team with the excessive salary later.
Even the Yankees pay attention to the tax threshholds. Their lack of space under that threshold is why their moves at the trade deadline have been limited.
Styme – remember where Tatis played when came up? I think he will get a gold glove for being in RF in 2023.
The Bogaerts deal would have been “okay” at 7-8 years. At least it would have been digestible. But the Padres are stuck with that stinker of a contract until Xander is 41. Meaning he’ll have to DH or learn to play 1B.
Milt – the AAV makes those last couple of years not look differently. He is expected to perform at the same level each of those years. The later years are just to lower the AAV and don’t mean the team expects him tk be an AS SS in those years.
A good DH or 1b will be fine.
So Swanson was great, Correa stunk to high heaven, and Turner and Bogaerts were somewhere in between. I could have told you that without a thousand-word article from MLBTR.
Or you could read the article and discover that’s not what the topic was actually about.
It was poll. Casey ranked them. Isn’t that what a poll is for?
Casey did not rank them according to the poll. Might as well rank them based on hair cuts.
Came down to Swanson and Turner for me. I went Swanson for the value and shorter contract. I don’t think Turner is as bad as he started out but the back half of the deal could be pretty ugly. Bogaerts and Correa just too overpaid for what I’m expecting them to produce. I was pissed initially but I’m glad the M’s didnt sign any of these guys. Would’ve made the 2023 team slightly better but been a bad long term investment and likely eliminated any chance at Shohei.
By the way, bWAR was pretty much the same for these guys. Most notably, both measures think Correa was awful. Farmer piled up a better bWAR in a little over half the at-bats that the Twins wasted on Correa. If the wildly overpaid Carlos stinks again next year, will Minnesota get smart and bench him? Or is the name and contract too big, and the front office will force Baldelli to keep playing him?
A bunch of awful contracts. Correa is the only decent one but it was the 3rd time for him. Giants and Mets dodged an albatross.
Correa was the only decent one – 30 mil for a below average bat with a large injury history?
How is that the one you picked?
The guaranteed money isn’t that big for him.
Ok but the guaranteed money to production (which is why you give him the 30 mi) is way off. I do get they can move on sooner but when year 1 is bad / didn’t get your value, then the fact that the contract is a few years shorter is not a good enough reason to say it’s better than the other 3 where the team did get their value for their money in year 1.
The Twins won a playoff series with a ton of help from Correa. That on it’s own is worth its weight in gold to the team.
Swanson does not have to be the guy on the Cubs, so his offensive profile and the financial commitment is a good deal long term. Turner is a guy that can be electric, he fits the very competitive window the Phillies have right now. Bogaerts is overall a great hitter, but his defense is okay, maybe should have used that money on pitching but he’s going to be a good bat for San Diego. Correa played hurt all year, once he fixes his injury, he’s still young enough to be a great player and have good to great defense for Minnesota.
this is how i see it, the padres are the only team that will be significantly hampered by the contract unless correa continues to have injury issues; swanson is a good bet to provide value and i always saw it that way once he signed for the least guaranteed money, now the cubs dont need to develop their own high-profile middle infielder. xander should probably not be a shortstop for much longer, and clearly the lineup calculus was wrong in sd so back to the drawing board for them. philly and minnesota are definitely looking to cash in more than just this postseason during these guys’ tenures and they need them to produce to help get them there within the next two years to help justify these deals
Turner or Bogaerts also don’t have to be the guy either. The Phillies have Bryce Harper long term and the Padres have Machado and Tatis long term. The only person that has to be the guy is Correa. And even then I am leaning towards Royce Lewis being the guy before Buxton ever will be. All 3 have injury issues, but Lewis could easily be the most productive of the 3 as soon as next season.
Swanson’s “offensive profile” is league average (below, actually, in 2023 at 99 OPS+), while his defense, that’s the only value from the deal, will start to decline with age. You would have thought his speed would have made up for it, but he had 50% fewer SBs than in ’22 though the rule change.
IMHO, his leadership and intangibles, similar to what Heyward provided, will make the contract most valuable — though I understand that’s quite a slight considering how negatively J-Hey’s contract is viewed.
That’s all fair points, I agree with Swanson having intangibles like Heyward, but already see his league average or slightly above average production a far better deal than Heyward’s production. His defense will decline no doubt, but Cubs will still get another 2-3 years of defensive prowess before he declines. If his offensive numbers stay the same, I’ll live with them.
I think it goes without saying that they will all decline. The difference, imo, will be how much X & Turner are worth relative to Swanson, over the first 7 years of the contract. Then compare that to how much Philly & SD will eat at the end.
After Swanson’s contract is over, Bogaerts & Turner will have 4 years left and $102M and $109M left. The universe of players with even a 10 bWAR over four years, at that age, is very small.
Lindor betta
Not as good as Kike.
All the contracts will have issues eventually, although there’s a chance Correa’s might age the best as the Twins have an out when he hits 33. They should get his remaining best years. I expect a strong bounce back season as long as the foot problem isn’t chronic. Swanson concerns me because he drives so much value from his glove. Defense is a young man’s game. If he loses half a step, his value could plummet.
It’s a talented group, but will there eventually be a single HOFer in this class? Maybe Bogaerts will “metronome” his way to Cooperstown. Most cases fall apart in a player’s 30s.
All these contracts will end up being terrible.
Terry,
Based on how the industry is working now, I submit that just because the last 2-3 years of X or Trea contracts become an overlay for production thst alone doesn’t make them bad. If Philly and SD get 4-5 peak years of what these 2 have done so far, and then 2-3 average, they are good. They know there is some Albert Pujols years coming at the end.
At least for X, the AAV is low enough that they can already eat the last year.
Most were weak or bad as soon as they were signed. Some will likely end up terrible but I doubt all of them will. Cubs fans seem to have really taken a liking to Swanson and he already has provided a lot of value. Might end up being a fair or even a contract win. Definitely not trending towards terrible right now.
2 of the 4 gave their teams $15+ million in surplus value. One roughly broke even. The 4th was about $18 million in the negative.
Did SD really need a 7th SS?
Wreck – SD needed the offensive production and with Tatis slated for RF and Kim available to shift to 2b and Cro to 1b (Manny already at 3b) it made more sense in the overall as opposed to just looking at the decision as “adding” another SS.
The did let Profar walk (if you want to still label him and SS).
Although they let him come back for a few weeks!
So did they really need another SS or could they have put that money towards another position of need?
They addressed 1b and RF and added a 4/5 spot in the order as a result of the signing.
So you would rather have signed a less athletic 1b or RF or both with that money?
The got the best player available and filled holes even though it was by an indirect shifting of others.
That explains signing XB for his bat, but when you have a better SS, but play them out of position to appease XB’s ego, doesn’t that take away from the added offense? If you sign him to a 10 year contract, shouldn’t the employee just play where you tell him to play? Semien moved to 2B in Toronto, for example.
XB’s ego wasn’t an issue. He was never asked to play 2B.
Kim is the only good or better ss I seen in SD.
Swanson will be the best by a fair margin, imo. He had the best season of the four. He has $151M due over the next 6 years. Turner and X will be 37 by that point and relatively worthless. Bogaerts has $255M left and Turner has $272M left.
I see no chance of those two earning close to Swanson’s WAR/$$$
I’ll take Orlando Arcia for 4/$8.3M, thanks.
Makes me giggle that Javy Baez was completely left out of the article
Baez isn’t a part of the same free agency class as the 4 listed. He’s now 2 years into his FA deal with DET, while the rest are 1 year in.
No hope in sight for Javy, who was starting only half the time in September. He will have to earn the job next year.
Atta boy bham. No matter how stupid it was to give Harper incentive to kick our ass worse, you got to stick with our guy. Arcia had the same production as Dansby for less total than 1 year of a Swanson contract. So he faded away after the All Star break, he was still worth the $2 million annually. Only knock on him is he needs to control his emotions and temper better. Them Phillies fans had him rattled.
Swanson had 4.9 WAR. Arcia 1.6.
FWIW, fWAR was Swanson (4.9) @ $14M vs. Arcia (2.3) @ $2.3M.
Arcia cost 16% of what Swanson did in ’23, but put up 46% of his production via fWAR.
I voted for Turner because he played best down the stretch. But I doubt very much any of these deals age well.
My prediction for which deal is most likely to go south is Turner since so much of his value is based on speed, and his defense is already mediocre at best.
None of them are good. 200 300 million should be for mega stars that fans love and will sell tickets. Not good great players or even stars. Fans might accept having a “cheating astro” on their team but if he wasn’t they would be booing him. SD PHI already had bigger stars so the ss weren’t moving the needle. Swanson seems like the best and even a ok deal with his looks, personality, defense and wife already being in town. At least TEX got power. And none of these are as awful as Baez. Extend your own guys.
Think the Q should have been ‘who was the least bad?’. None of those deals looks like ageing too well.
I choose Mallory Pugh. I mean Swanson.