The Angels collapsed in the second half and came up short of the playoffs yet again. Now they enter the offseason they’ve been dreading. Shohei Ohtani will be a free agent, putting the franchise at a potential inflection point. They’ll need to commit to an organizational direction behind their fourth manager in six seasons.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Mike Trout, CF: $248.15MM through 2030
- Anthony Rendon, 3B: $114MM through 2026
- Tyler Anderson, LHP: $26MM through 2025
- David Fletcher, SS: $14MM through 2025 (including buyout of ’26 club option; deal includes ’27 club option)
- Brandon Drury, 2B: $8.5MM through 2024
- Max Stassi, C: $7.5MM through 2024 (including buyout of ’25 club option)
- Carlos Estévez, RHP: $6.75MM through 2024
Option Decisions
- Team holds $9MM option on 3B Eduardo Escobar ($500K buyout)
- Team holds $7.5MM option on LHP Aaron Loup ($2MM buyout)
2024 financial commitments: $117.2MM
Total future commitments: $427.4MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players
- Griffin Canning (4.075): $2.5MM
- Brett Phillips (4.060): $1.4MM
- Luis Rengifo (4.043): $4.2MM
- Jaime Barria (4.035): $1.5MM
- Chad Wallach (4.018): $1.1MM
- Taylor Ward (3.164): $4.5MM
- Patrick Sandoval (3.149): $5MM
- Jared Walsh (3.114): $2.7MM
- José Suarez (3.084): $1.1MM
- José Quijada (3.046): $1MM
Non-tender candidates: Phillips, Barria, Wallach, Walsh, Suarez, Quijada
Free Agents
The Angels have had the 2023-24 offseason circled for a while. It has served as a possible endpoint to their window of rostering two of the best players in the world. At least since Shohei Ohtani truly broke through as an MVP talent in 2021, the upcoming winter has been a concern. The organization knew it was running low on time to build a winner during Ohtani’s window of control.
For a team that has desperately been in win-now mode for three-plus seasons, the Angels haven’t done much winning. They’ve tried to compensate for a generally thin organizational pipeline by addressing needs through free agency, always a step behind where they needed to be.
In 2021, the starting rotation wasn’t good enough. Last year, they gave too many at-bats to replacement level position players. They tried to bolster the overall depth last offseason, signing Brandon Drury, Tyler Anderson and Carlos Estévez while acquiring Hunter Renfroe and Gio Urshela in trade. Still on the fringe of the playoff race at the deadline, they pushed in for Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López (plus a number of role playing veteran hitters) in hopes of salvaging one playoff run while Ohtani was still guaranteed to be on the roster.
It didn’t work. The Halos pivoted a few weeks later, waiving many of their highest-priced players in an effort to dip back below the luxury tax line. Even the organization doesn’t yet know if that effort was successful, as their tax number won’t be finalized until the end of the year. If they did go over the base threshold, the actual bill would be minuscule, as teams are only taxed on their overages. The more significant aspects are that teams pay escalating penalties for surpassing the line in consecutive seasons and that paying the luxury tax reduces the compensation teams receive for losing a qualified free agent.
That, of course, brings things back to Ohtani. The Angels will make Ohtani the QO. He will decline. If he subsequently signs elsewhere, the compensation the Halos receive would differ depending on whether they actually surpassed the tax threshold. If their CBT number is under $233MM, it’d be a pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round (typically around 75th overall). If they’re still over the line, the compensatory draft choice falls between Rounds 4 and 5.
Neither is a good outcome. The Angels unsurprisingly maintain they hope to re-sign Ohtani. The presumptive AL MVP hasn’t tipped his hand about free agent preferences. There’s no doubt the Halos will be involved in the bidding. Would they be willing to offer a contract pushing or exceeding half a billion dollars to retain him?
Owner Arte Moreno hasn’t been shy about spending on star talent, from the Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols and Anthony Rendon free agent pickups to the Mike Trout extension. Yet even those megadeals are likely to land well below Ohtani’s ultimate signing price, while this is the first time in two decades that the Halos have shown a willingness to surpass the luxury tax threshold.
Even if Moreno is willing to play at the top of the market financially, the Angels will have to sell Ohtani on their ability to compete over the coming seasons. They’re tied with the Tigers for the game’s longest active playoff drought at nine years. They don’t have a single prospect on Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 list.
The MLB team just finished 73-89 for a second consecutive season while Ohtani was playing on a $30MM arbitration salary and pitched 132 innings. At season’s end, they declined an option to retain skipper Phil Nevin. They’re now searching for their fifth manager since Ohtani’s 2018 rookie season. They already have north of $117MM in guaranteed salary on the books, most of it tied up in the Rendon and Trout deals. The arbitration class is likely to tack on around $16MM after non-tenders. That leaves about $79MM before reaching this year’s Opening Day payroll figure, though an Ohtani deal could account for more than half of that.
The best case scenario is that the Halos manage to retain Ohtani, who won’t pitch next season following elbow surgery, on a free agent contract that pays far more than he made this year– likely above Aaron Judge’s $40MM record salary for a position player. They wouldn’t have much room to address anything else on the roster before getting back to franchise-record payroll levels. Barring a huge jump in spending, it’s hard to see how the Angels look better entering 2024 than they did going into ’23.
That all makes the Halos feel like a relative long shot to keep their franchise player. Were he to sign elsewhere, this would look like a clear rebuilding roster. They were 16th in runs this past season despite Ohtani’s .304/.412/.654 showing. Playing the second half without Trout, who suffered a hamate fracture on July 4, obviously played a role in that. Yet Trout has played in less than half the team’s games over the last three seasons. Now that he’s into his 30s, the three-time MVP might not be capable of shouldering a 150+ game workload as he did at his peak.
The rest of the lineup has some bright spots but is middling overall. Logan O’Hoppe is a promising young catcher. He lost most of this year to a labrum tear but is the clear long-term starter. Veteran Max Stassi was out all season between a hip injury and a family medical concern. Hopefully, he’ll be able to return next season as the backup.
Los Angeles cycled through a number of infielders. David Fletcher was on and off the roster and no longer looks like a regular. He’ll remain in the organization because he’s under contract for two more seasons and doesn’t have the requisite service time to decline a minor league assignment without forfeiting the $14MM remaining on his deal. He could be waived again this offseason, though.
The Halos brought in Mike Moustakas, C.J. Cron and Eduardo Escobar as midseason stopgaps. They’re all headed to free agency — the Angels will buy out Escobar for $500K rather than exercise a $9MM option — and seem unlikely to be retained. Urshela is also headed to the open market and could find a two-year deal elsewhere. Former All-Star Jared Walsh is likely to be non-tendered after a second straight down year that temporarily cost him his spot on the 40-man roster.
Despite those players departing, the Angels have a handful of infielders. Zach Neto had a solid rookie season and should be the long-term shortstop. 21-year-old Kyren Paris saw late-season action there but didn’t hit in his first 15 MLB games and should start next year back in the minors.
At first base, the Halos hurried Nolan Schanuel to the majors within a few weeks of drafting him 11th overall out of Florida Atlantic. While the last-ditch effort to compete didn’t work, the 21-year-old handled himself remarkably well given the circumstances. Schanuel walked more than he struck out, hit .275, and reached base at a huge .402 clip in his debut. He only had four extra-base hits and slugged just .330. There’s room for debate about whether the Angels should send Schanuel back to the minors to try to develop his power. His strong on-base skills at least put him in the running for the starting first base job on Opening Day, though.
Drury and Luis Rengifo will be in the everyday lineup if they’re still on the roster. They were two of the Halos’ better offensive performers, with Rengifo having a particularly impressive second half. A fluke biceps rupture sustained while taking swings in the on-deck circle ended his season two weeks early. He underwent surgery and is expected to be ready for Spring Training.
Each of Drury and Rengifo should draw trade attention this offseason. Rengifo’s injury could make it difficult to find an appropriate return before he gets back on the field. Drury would be an obvious trade candidate if the Halos lose Ohtani and decide to use 2024 as a retooling season. The veteran popped 26 homers with a .262/.306/.497 slash in his first year in Orange County. Playing on an affordable $8.5MM salary, he’d be an appealing target for infield-needy teams in a winter without many free agent options.
That’s not the case for Rendon. The veteran third baseman has played in fewer than 60 games in all three full seasons since signing a $245MM free agent deal. He has played at a league average level in that time, nowhere close to the production the Angels envisioned. Rendon didn’t play after July 4 with a left leg injury that the Halos announced as a shin contusion. Rendon told reporters last month it was a tibia fracture. Both the organization and the player had been bizarrely reluctant to provide meaningful updates throughout the season.
There’s no indication that Rendon will not be ready for the start of 2024. He’ll surely remain on the roster, as his $38MM annual salaries through ’26 makes a trade essentially impossible. If he’s healthy, he’ll presumably be the starting third baseman. Few free agent deals go south as quickly as the Rendon investment has, leaving the Angels without many options but to hope for better entering year five.
Two outfield spots should be locked down. Trout is likely to be back in center field. Opposing fanbases have long speculated about the possibility of prying the 11-time All-Star away in trade. The Angels probably wouldn’t be able to shed the entire seven years and $248.15MM on his deal, but a high-payroll team like the Yankees or Phillies would presumably be willing to assume the majority of the money. Yet there are likely too many roadblocks to a trade.
Clearly, the Angels wouldn’t contemplate moving Trout while they’re still making an effort to bring back Ohtani. Re-signing Ohtani would take that firmly off the table. If the two-way star walks, Moreno would need to be willing to part with both faces of the franchise in the same offseason. For an owner who intervened to kill trade discussions regarding Ohtani when the Halos were firmly out of contention at the 2022 deadline, that seems unlikely. Even if the Angels were willing to move Trout, he’d have control over his destination thanks to full no-trade rights. Trout doesn’t seem urgent to force his way out of Anaheim, telling reporters last month that his offseason focus is on “clearing my mind and getting ready for spring and wearing an Angels uniform in spring.”
Assuming Trout is back in center field, he’d likely be flanked by Taylor Ward. The left fielder’s season was cut short when he was hit in the face with a pitch in late July. He should be back by Spring Training. Ward is a solid regular who still has three seasons of arbitration control. As with Rengifo, there’d be interest if the Halos wanted to shop him. They’re in no urgency to do so, though, and the season-ending injury makes it tough to get adequate value before Ward demonstrates that he has gotten past that frightening situation mentally.
Even if they retool, the Angels could look for a veteran corner outfielder opposite Ward. Former top prospect Jo Adell has never taken the anticipated step forward. He’ll be out of minor league options and looks like a candidate for a change-of-scenery trade, albeit for a minimal return. Mickey Moniak faded after a strong start in Trout’s stead and is probably best suited for fourth outfield work. Randal Grichuk is a free agent, while Brett Phillips will likely be non-tendered.
Adam Duvall, Brian Anderson, Joey Gallo and Jason Heyward are among the free agent corner outfielders who’ll sign for one or two years. Alex Verdugo and Mike Yastrzemski are potential trade candidates. The Angels only make sense as a suitor for a trade possibility if they’re again trying to patch things together with short-term veterans.
They’ll also have to add on the pitching staff. The Angels have run with a six-man rotation in recent seasons to manage Ohtani’s workload. General manager Perry Minasian recently acknowledged they could move to a five-man staff next season (link via Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register). That’s true regardless of whether they retain Ohtani since he can’t pitch next year.
Patrick Sandoval, Reid Detmers and Griffin Canning have three spots reasonably well secured. The Halos would surely like to offload the two years and $26MM remaining on Anderson’s contract after he struggled to a 5.43 ERA in the first season. They unsuccessfully tried to offload the money via waivers in August. They’d presumably have to kick in cash to facilitate some kind of trade this offseason.
Whether Anderson returns, there’s room for another starter. Reuniting with Michael Lorenzen or taking a rebound flier on Frankie Montas, Luis Severino or Lance Lynn could be viable. That’d leave Anderson (if not traded) competing with the likes of Chase Silseth and potentially José Suarez for a rotation spot.
The Halos also have opportunity to add a couple relief fliers. They’re likely to opt for a $2MM buyout on Aaron Loup. They waived impending free agent Matt Moore and cut Chris Devenski in August. Hard-throwing Ben Joyce and José Soriano and right-hander Andrew Wantz presently project as the top setup options to Estévez, who’s headed into the second season of a two-year free agent deal. The hard-throwing closer would surely draw interest if the Halos were to make him available this winter. Bringing in at least one left-hander seems inevitable. Andrew Chafin, Wandy Peralta and Scott Alexander are among the possibilities.
It’s shaping up to be a difficult offseason. Minasian heads into his fourth year at the helm facing the long-feared potential Ohtani departure. If it happens, an already middling team will have lost its best player. If he stays, they’ll have a more uphill battle than ever in putting a viable roster around him.
In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held an Angels-centric chat on 10-10-23. Click here to view the transcript.
Next decade outlook: Under .500 every season.
Bleak! Bleak! Bleak!
These threads always bring out the trolls.
The question is whether they’ll throw all the money at Ohtani or if someone else will. It might not be the Mets. It’s possible Cohen saw the business realities of ownership and found his fiscal conservatism in the wake of his ultra expensive team failing miserably and major signings like Lindor proving fine at best for the price.
Anyway, the question is if Ohtani wants all the money or the chance at rings or to be a career team member in one organization.
It might take 10 years/$600M to sign Ohtani and the first year-plus of that might be a sunk cost with him recuperating, rehabbing, building back up- and he might not be able to sustain his two way value for the majority of the contract, so do they risk paying double or more of his value long term?
And even if they do, it’s obvious that Trout and Ohtani on one club doesn’t get it done, so Ohtani being back guarantees nothing more than current results.
Also: is Trout still Trout? Is he still capable of a 7+ WAR season?
I think they should let Ohtani go, trade Trout-blow it all up and start over. This generation- basically since or just before Trout came on board- of the Angels has been a disaster.
Clear the decks and start over with prospects and hope in 5-10 years they’re dynastic again.
You’d have to be crazy to give Ohtani something like 600 million after TWO arm surgeries in four years. Even with his marketing value to a team like SF or SEA or LAD. Before last year, his BA was a very average .267. He steals bases…..but gets caught about 40% of the time. Yes, he hit’s HRs, but has no defensive value to figure into a six figure salary, like a Trout or a Betts or an Olson.
Yeah, I don’t know where these Ohtani contract numbers come from. Any team that pays him more than 10m as a DH only player in 2024 is dumb. If he can eventually pitch again, and assuming it’s at his usual level, with his injury history, I would pay no more than 5/200m with tons of innings incentives for him to meet and a couple of option years.
But some team will pay him and they will soon regret it. I hope it’s not the Angels. It would ruin their ability to build a team around Trout for the foreseeable future,
Angels prognosis: Sell the team. Quickly. Preferably to a billionaire after you get him drunk or stoned. Whichever is easier.
We’re all just speculating, of course, but I don’t think you’d get any serious consideration from his camp at 5-year, 200 million. It’s hard not to envision the Giants offering at least the 13-year, $350 million they were willing to give Correa. Maybe they go a little shorter on years, and a little higher on AAV, I don’t know. I really think at the minimum, the deal is 10-years, 400 million though. You have to look past just the baseball side, too. For the franchise, you instantly become the most popular club in the Japanese market I would imagine. Plus, I believe I remember the Angels are getting money from somewhere for employing Ohtani? I could be wrong, but I think the trade chatter was partly nixed because the Angels would have had to return 10 million dollars to someone for trading Ohtani.
Outlaw – I agree, unfortunately. He will get paid. I’ve always predicted he would end up on the Giants too. But the issue for me would be paying that much for that long with his injury history. If he goes down again, the Japanese market, at least those who are Ohtani fans and not necessarily Giants fans, would have no reason to watch Giants baseball or spend money on Giants stuff. The money has to be incentive based, which his camp probably won’t like either.
I think the smartest thing Ohtani could do is learn how to play first base. That way he’s not throwing the ball consistently like a pitcher or an outfielder.
I think I heard Moreno made an extra $30m by not trading him this year.
The Giants were smart with Rodon. His contract was performance base with an opt-out. At the time him opting opt looked bad, but as we know he’s reverted back to being injury prone and not pitching well. The Yankees should have given him a contract like the Giants did. Now, they’re stuck with him.
Rendon straight stealing money
I honestly believe Rendon is stealing money. He came out and said he didn’t actually like playing baseball and didn’t want to keep playing but he kept getting paid insane amounts and producing. He signed with the Angels in order to be irrelevant. He signed with the Angels because they gave him the largest offer or close to the largest offer plus irrelevancy.
He said it. When asked why he signed he said the Angels were in a small market overshadowed by the Dodgers and other larger market clubs like the Yankees or Boston etc. and they offered him the most money. He wanted the money. Nothing against that.
If you only care about money and there’s a bare minimum to argue that you made an effort to honor the contract and it’s guaranteed, why not sign for 7 years at $35M a year?
The Angels can’t make him try harder and he tries just hard enough to not get his contract virtually voided like Yoenis Cespedes, who tried the same thing with the Mets, but made his plan way too obvious by blatantly operating a horse ranch when he was supposed to be too injured to play the game he’s being paid to play.
As long as Rendon doesn’t do something that blatant, the Angels are stuck paying him unless they want to just release him and end their misery while eating the money.
I would release him. He’s averaged 49 games per year in the last three years so he’s barely playing anyway. We need to stop having uncertainty at 3b. Plus his PR is awful.
No sense releasing Rendon unless they need the roster spot. And they’re nowhere close to needing the roster spot.
216 – I proffer they do need the roster spot. It needs to be filled with a solid 3b who plays more than 49 games a year. There is no reason to expect a different result in 2024 from Rendon.
Rendon said he does not like to watch baseball, that’s quite different than not liking the sport. I love to golf, I hate watching it.
I honestly believe Rendon is stealing money.
=======================
It is a problem that too many GMs and owners fail to realize. They know the player they are getting, but choose to ignore that obvious warning signs. Pujols .900 OPS in his last season with the Cards. Zito’s awful, awful 1.53 K/W in his last season in Oakland.
These teams often get the player they are supposed to get, just not the player they hope to get.
As long as Rendon is on the team, Shohei won’t sign with the Angels. Shohei can’t stand the guy and has zero respect for him.
nukeg – how do you know that?
Until Moreno sells this team, I see little hope for the Angels to build a contending team.
The Angels are hoping for a new “participation trophy” style playoff format where every team makes the playoffs every year. That’s the only way these Los Angeles Angels will see a “playoff” this millennium.
Yikes, those guaranteed contracts are something. Drury and Estevez’s deals aren’t terrible, but receiving slightly above average production for over $15M between those two is not ideal, especially when regression back to average seems likely for both players (very bad K rate, horrible BB rate for Drury, but at least he can play D and slug; bad BB rate, bad HH rate, only one effective pitch for Estevez, but at least he can K people).
League average production is worth approximately $16M per season based on $/WAR
$4.9B in salary $165MM * 30
1,080 WAR = ((81-45) * 30)
$4.6MM per win.
Teams try to buy WAR at about $6MM per win for players worth 2.0+ WAR. i.e. Player expected to produce 5 WAR = $30MM AAV-ish. Over the last few years, actual production seems to be around $8MM per win. The player signed with the team expecting them to produce 5 WAR actually produces about 4 WAR on average so the actual AAV is higher than expected.
It’ll be interesting to figure out how the new CBA affects contracts.
The Angels simply need to focus on defense more instead of home runs. They gave up almost 100 Unearned runs. They’ve had a poor defense and baserunning since Minasian took over. His first trade ever was for Velasquez who was supposed to be a wizard but never was. And after that defense was an afterthought for any player. Minasian leaned in heavily with all those Driveline hires and that doesn’t look too good. And Logan O’Hoppe has a good bat but his defensive metrics are pretty poor- pop time in the 1%, CS and framing 15. And listening to the Marlins having a manager who’s won does make a difference so I don’t think Showalter would be that guy.
Minasian is doing what Arte did but in smaller scale. He does not seem to care about defense but cheap offensive production is his thing. If Fletcher batted in front of Ohtani all season he certainly would have hit better than Rengifo with superior defense at 2B.
I think the angles need to look in the direction of the rays and stop paying players and free agents for what they have done, since it’s no guarantee they will continue at a top level. Swap rendons bad contract with another, sign a few 1 year flyers for trade bait at the deadline. Maybe they should develop their own ohtanis- pitch and batting player.
I agree. The Angels gotta blow it up. They got lucky that Ohtani wanted to sign with them in the first place. He should have signed with Seattle or the Dodgers, if he wanted to stay on the west coast so badly. Let the younger players play. Bench the overpriced underperforming veterans. Grab a few cheap free agents to fill in holes, trade them for more prospects if they work out. Develop 5 or 6 “Ohtanis” and take your chances.
LOL at “develop 5 or 6 Ohtanis”
I’m just imagining the job interviews when Arte is telling the next GM: “I’d like you to find and develop five, or six, Ohtanis.” Lolol.
I say that because the current GM would almost certainly be fired for “failing” there, as anyone would.
I just want these job interviews televised for the facial expressions alone. Lol
Arte has wiped out scouting and development. Even if we get the best prospects the team will unlikely produce MLB stars. We all hope the owner sell the team yesterday.
This team is screwed. Bad contacts and who would want to sign here?
If the Angels were an action movie they’d be Escape From LA
To rebuild a team needs an owner who will commit substantial resources to scouting and development.
When you use 66 players in a year as the Angels have done in consecutive years you don’t really get a good look at anyone nor are they allowed to adjust and develop.
Perhaps taking a breath, getting some good coaching and video people, and letting the kids play in 2024 is the best long term plan. Find out what we have in Neto, Schanuel, Moniak, Adell, O’Hoppe and the last few draft classes of pitchers.
There’s no chance to leapfrog Texas or Houston next year. Probably not Seattle.
Or he could just blow it up in the opposite direction, re-sign Ohtani for 700 million for 15 years. Extend Trout and Rendon for an extra 5 years at 100 million each. Trade o hoppe, Neto, schanuel, Paris, silseth for Lindor. Bring Yadier Molina, Gary Matthews Jr, Vernon Wells and Pujols out of retirement. Sign Hayward for a cool 30 million. we need pitching you say?? Naaahh, who needs pitching when you got a lineup like that.. Angels World Series champions 2024 here we come!!!
Arte has an MLBTR account.
Sweet!
Great analysis by Anthony. The only missing piece is players around MLB in their final year of arbitration eligibility. Minasian shopped there last year for starters and will likely do so again.
Rendon should just be the DH next year and maybe he’ll play more games
Rendon’s slash line over the last 3 years is .235/.338/.364
That’s not DH material.
It’s not just that he’s hurt all the time. He’s also bad when healthy.
So what shoud the Angels do?
Let’s start at the top of the list.
Fletcher is gone. He can’t hit and no one on the team really likes him. AAA for the season.
Estevez is traded down the 5. No reason to hang on to a closer for a team that will be lucky to win 75 games.
The options of Escobar and Loup are declined.
Phillips, Suarez, and Quijada are non-tendered.
Ohtani receives a QO and is allowed to walk.
Everyone else is allowed to walk.
Bring in stopgap measures like Moose.
Stassi to remain on the restricted list unless he comes into ST ready to play.
Keep payroll under $150 million
Arte sells the team.
Schanuel, Drury, Neto, Rendon/Rengifo. Ward, Trout. Moniak/Adell, O’Hoppe
Detmers, Sandoval, Anderson, Canning, Silseth
Soriano, Joyce, Wantz, Barria, Bachman, Rodriguez if he returns and a rotating bunch of minor leaguers.
OF course, that is what they SHOULD do, not what Arte will do.
Arte will probably double down on stupid and sign Bellinger and Hoskins and bid $600 million for Ohtani. More losing seasons, but big name batters in the lineup.
There are many problems with the Angels. The biggest is the ownership, they are focused on marketing and not on winning games. As a result of poor ownership several bad baseball decisions have been made over the years that have crippled the franchise. The current team has many holes throughout the lineup. The current farm system is in complete disarray.
The team really needs to be blown up. Do a QO for Ohtani but don’t re-sign him. At the end of 2024 Rendon needs to be cut if there is someone more serviceable at 3rd, ideally he can rebound and then be traded at the deadline. Open discussions need to be had with Trout on trading him; it’s going to be a few years before they are in a position to make the playoffs. No big named free agents should be signed over the next couple of years.
Ideally Arte would sell the team. The next best thing would be for Arte to stop interfering with the GM’s management of the team.
The Angels need to stay away from free agency a few years until they have a sold base. That likely means build from within until 2027.
I’m sorry, what’s that? We just signed JD Martinez to a 4-year $125 million deal!
– Moreno, probably
Make an offer to ohtani. If ohtani says no like you would expect pay a team to take on trouts contract.
Fire the whole player development crew and hire a bunch of progressive guys (like driveline) and invest into facilities.
Trade everyone with less than 4 years of control left. Suck for 3-4 years and try to build a good farm system and try to compete around 2028 again.
The best the angels could hope for is what the Os did. The Os sold in 2018 and then tanked 18,19,20 and 21, in 22 they where the first time above .500 again.
The angels could do that too but don’t forget that the Os revamped their whole front office, coaching, player development and analytics and invested a lot in player development.
The problem with Moreno is that he hates to spend on off the field stuff like coaching, technology and so on.
Moreno was one of the first to fire scouts and coaches during covid for example, so if the angels want to be able to compete Moreno either needs to change his point of view and start to invest in off field stuff or sell the team to someone who does.
“Trade everyone with less than 4 years of control left. Suck for 3-4 years and try to build a good farm system and try to compete around 2028 again.”
I’ve been trying to see a better path ahead, but I think that’s the only viable option from a baseball sense (no comment about marketing, merchandising, etc.) The Angels were a poor team for years with Trout AND Ohtani. The latter is gone, and the team needs to face the sad reality that mounting injuries to the former likely makes him effectively gone, or at least nearing the end. What else besides a small (emphasis on small) number of promising young guys is there? That means a wholesale rebuild, particularly at the minor league level, is required. There is no alternative.
Of course no one will like it in the short term – except perhaps the marginal, AAAA types like Adell who will receive more-than-ample opportunities to prove the critics wrong at the major league level. But if they have a decent scouting department, and if they have a decent development strategy in the minors (two big “ifs” I know), 2027 might be a reasonable target for a consistently +0.500 team to emerge. Invest in the scouting/minors/development corps even a fraction of what they have committed to the likes of the execrable Rendon (who, unless they are going to pursue legal steps a la Cespedes/Ellsbury, should simply be released at this point), and it should work. See Tampa, Baltimore, and yes, the Dodgers.
No other team is in line to blow it up more than the angels.
Mitch Garver had a higher OPS than Mike Trout last season, and people are saying he isn’teven worth a QO as a catcher/DH. Let that sink in.
You expect garver to be better than Trout?
Part time player who has never had more than 360 ABs is likely not worth a qualifying offer. Mike Trout plays CF and hit 40 HRs 2 years ago.
What an imbecilic comment.
I don’t. It’s more a comment on how overpaid Trout is.
Yes. The Angels overpaid for Trout, but over his career, the Angels will still have gotten a bargain.
I don’t mind Trout getting his money.
It’s the free agents like a Rendon, Pujols, Anderson, Hamilton, Matthews that deserve to be criticized.
Why jump on that Garver comment of all the Lol Angels comments? All I was saying was even a non-QO guy like Garver performed like him this year, and he has a lot of $$$ remaining.
There are many ridiculous comments on this thread.
Maybe because out of all the ridiculous comments, it seemed to be written by a non troll who actually tried to make a valid point.
In a strange way, it was a compliment.
I try not to respond to trolls.
Trout didn’t haveca great year (still a 131 ops+) but this was the first time in his career where he had an ops of under 900 (apart from the cup of Coffee in 2011).
His contract might turn out bad in the end but while he missed a lot of games he generally has been great.
And his peripherals were pretty close to the same.
Confused franchise.
The offseason outlook of the LA Angels can be summed up in one word:
Grim (if you are an optimist) or dire (if you are a realist).
They do their shopping for free agents at the Island of Misfit Toys.
Plot twist: Owners don’t want to pay $35 million for a DH who’s rehabbing an elbow injury so he can pitch again, and he accepts the QO. The Angels get confused and suck again
Shohei to the Dodgers because they are soooo much better?
The Dodgers will have played 3 whole games more AGAIN this year before they join the Angels on the golf course..
Shohei = albatross contract.
How could he not be an Angel?
Dumb take, he is the best player in baseball history. Also there is almost no such thing as an albatross contract in baseball, there’s no hard cap and these teams have billions each.
Regardless of injury concerns I would give Ohtani that contract at 30 years old before giving it to Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Barry Bonds, A-Rod, Cy Young, Pedro, Roger, Gibson, etc at the same point in their careers.
You and Arte agree. No such thing as an albatross contract.
No way I want to see him leave the Angels but…
Unless you spend like the Mets or Padres and
damn the tax threshold,
adding around Shohei’s contract will be difficult and detrimental to that winning culture he is looking for!
Trout’s first 8 full seasons he was averaging 9.0 bWAR per season. Ohtani is 25% behind that pace at 7.0 bWAR.
Ohtani is perhaps the most exciting because he’s the dual threat, and how he performs in those roles, but..
bWAR first 5 full years
54.3 Ruth
47.3 Trout
44.0 Williams
41.4 Clemens
41.0 Johnson, Walter
38.7 Rodriguez
35.2 Ohtani (19.6 batting 15.6 pitching)
35.0 Blyleven
33.3 Bonds
32.7 Santana, Johan
31.6 Kershaw
30.2 Griffey, Jr.
Not sure what the contract will work out to be. Length will be a big question mark considering he’s undergone another UCL surgery.
You can’t get rid of Fletcher or Rendon, they are sunk costs. I don’t believe Fletcher even has to take up a 40 man roster spot. Such comments are ignorant.
Not to mention. the Angels don’t have anyone who can play 3rd or a backup utility infielder that can field.
What they really need to do is add a good starter and build a freaken bullpen. Minasian has shown no ability to do either.
I would say that getting rid of Fletcher is possible. He’s only owed $14M for the rest of his contract
He’s a utility infielder. No one is going to pick that contract up. And he doesn’t even have to take up a spot on the 40 man roster.
It’s a sunk cost.
Do you think they should just eat the money and release him?
The Royals have a several hundred percent more chance at signing Ohtani than the Angels do at this point, they couldn’t have mismanaged their efforts to keep him happy any more if they tried. If the Athletics weren’t still in Oakland I’d say that the Angels have fallen to the worst franchise in baseball right now.
When your owner spends the least in developing players and giving them the resources (training equipment, rehab equipment, training personnel, minor league support), this is not a surprise. Since Arte refuses to spend on his minor leagues, the outcome won’t change. This is going to get worse until he sells. He’ll overspend on another ridiculous FA contract, which have never worked out under his helm. This is going to get bad.
As much as I enjoy a good tanking, there are two problems here.
1-As a big market team, there isn’t a reason to tank. They have the payroll to afford to play .475-.500 for a couple of years.
2-They don’t have the players to tank with. They only have two types of players.
The first is younger, controllable guys that other teams want, but there is no reason for the Angels to trade them.
The second would be the older players that won’t be around for their next run at contention. But no one will want any of them, except maybe Trout, and they won’t get anything back. Most of the 1 or 2 year control types aren’t worth their salaries, so maybe the get a lottery ticket in exchange for half the salary.
The Angels are the only franchise in MLB never to lose 100 games in a season. Sadly that’s not only likely to change, there will probably be 4 or 5 consecutive hundred loss seasons ahead.
Arte Moreno will spend money but he does it poorly. Jerry Reinsdorf just doesn’t spend enough and surrounds himself with Yes men. I guess the Angels are better, at least you go to the games and watch a superstar in the game?
They are the only franchise not to lose more than 95 games.
Angels always start red hot, get cold, and then drop off around the trade deadline at least that’s what it feels like to me. That’s probably why they don’t have a 100 loss season.
I don’t think that’s the case. I think it’s much more likely they start out slow, figure out the pen and get hot, then lose like crazy.
That’s typically every year but 2022.
That makes more sense, I know they got hot red hot for a time before they implode. If you want to feel better, at least your team has had success and has a chance at being good, just look at the dumpster fire that is the White Sox and the rollercoaster that’s going to be.
They should trade everything and restart. Eat part of Trouts salary (if he will be traded) and start as close as they can to a real rebuild
The 2 worst run organizations in MLB, the Angels and the Rockies and it’s not even close
White Sox can be added to that list.
The Angels are a fixable ball club. There is a nucleus of young talent on the roster (Detmers, Sandoval, Canning and Silseth in the starting rotation. Bullpen has promising arms in Wantz, Joyce, Soriano and Bachman ( I would throw Chris Rodriguez in there if he ever gets healthy). Gifo, Stefanic and Neto along with veterans Fletcher and Drury is a solid middle infield with good depth. A combo of controllable outfielders Ward, Moniak and Adell should make a solid outfield with upside to go with Trout. Catching tandem of O’hoppe and Stassi would be a solid offensive and defensive combo.
The issue here is not the talent on the field. It has everything to do with Arte Moreno and the fact that running a winning club is a distant second to running a profitable business to him. I hate Sam Bluhm, but his recent article was spot on in describing all the ways that Moreno cuts corners and the team continues to lose any type of competitive advantage because they are not investing in proper facilities and technological advances. Perry Minasian has been more bad than good in his trades and free agent acquisitions. Every expert looked at the schedule ahead of the Halos around the trade deadline and despite having a winning record, none of them expected that to continue given the difficult schedule. They were right and Perry traded so much of the teams higher valued prospects. Perry is part of the problem. Even if Moreno green lights spending, it’s questionable that Perry will acquire the right players. Their scouting and development program is a skeleton system. If the Halos do indeed trade all the value off the roster they can to begin rebuilding. Arte has to spend on improving the facilities, scouting, coaching and player development to be successful.
I can’t envision Ohtani in anything other than an Angels uniform, but I don’t it is best for him or the team to resign, unless Arte is willing to spend like Texas, NYY, NYM, LAD etc. which history shows he won’t do it.
If the Halos don’t sign Ohtani and spend to regular payroll levels, they still can be competitive. Adding two of the following starters would change the rotation and make it as deep as it’s AL West competition: (Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez and Sonny Gray). Add two relievers: Matt Moore and Reynaldo Lopez were great for us and could be acquired at a reasonable price. (Anderson, Barria, Suarez are all long relief/DFA candidates). Add JD Martinez to play primarily DH roll. If trading Adell results in a reasonable return then the names Anthony Franco listed above make sense. Also if you trade Adell, going after Bellinger instead of Martinez could be a strong move as well. DH Trout more to keep him healthy as well as Rendon.
This is awfully optimistic. For position players and starters, carrying their own weight = 2.0 WAR. Here’s a list of 2.0 WAR players for the Angels this year:
*Ohtani = 6.6 (DH)
Trout = 3.0
Drury = 2.5
That’s it for position players!
Detmers = 2.5
*Ohtani = 2.4 (SP)
Sandoval = 2.3
That’s it for starting pitching!
How about the bullpen? About 0.5 WAR is carrying weight.
Estevez = 0.9
*Moore = 0.5
Wantz = 0.5
That’s it for the bullpen.
*Players who are already gone or won’t be back.
With 2 decent position players, 2 decent starters and 2 decent bullpen guys, the Angels have 6 of 26 returning players who even carried their own weight this year. Projecting every player to hit their theoretical performance ceiling isn’t reasonable.
The Angels should try to rebuild. Moreno is a wilcard, though. The Angels should do what they can to cast off the last generation of their star players and infuse some life into their farm system. They’ll never be able to replace Trout and Ohtani directly, but they can maybe rebuild them in the aggregate… haha. I enjoyed that reference.
Just need a Scott Hatteburg, a Jeremy Giambi, and a David Justice and the aggregate creates a Mike Trout haha!
The starters have too much of an upside to rebuild and most of the starters showed a lot of that potential in 2022.
Add a starter, build a freaken bullpen. and see what you have in Neto, Schanuel O’Hoppe, Adell/Moniak.
Of course, without a pen, they have zero chance. But there are enough pieces for some optimism.
Halo – I don’t share your optimism regarding the rotation. If Canning can stay healthy finally, he might be a good 3 or 4. Detmers maybe a 4 or 5. But Sandoval has had a lot of time and he is inconsistent at best. The entire rotation is inconsistent for that matter. I think we need 3 starters – a 1, a 2 and end of rotation guy. That could change if the line up starts driving in runs, but the bats have been dramatically inconsistent from game to game.
I totally agree about the bull pen. Blow it up and start over with defined rolls. You are right when you say a manager needs to know who does what in the bull pen instead of having to figure it out during the season with trial and error.
We were ranked 4th highest in 2023 with 46 blown leads. And we were ranked 8th highest in blown saves with 29 out of 72 opportunities. That’s horrible with our payroll..
You don’t have to share my optimism. I’m not some crazy guy that thinks you are a fake fan for being more pessimistic than me.
Do I think we are going anywhere next year…..no, But I also don’t know where we are. I think this is a foundation year for most of the team. Let’s figure out who is who and then build around what we figure out. I remember when people hated Lackey. It took Lackey two full years to figure it out.
There are so many unanswered questions and I don’t want to throw out the baby with the bath water.
And the bullpen is horrible. I’m really hoping Buck will have some influence with Minasian on how to build a pen. Based on the prior three years, Minasian is clueless. There has to be another voice.
I agree Halo. Considering who we have in the rotation as we sit here today, has any one of them earned the honor of opening day starter? No one stands out to me as our guy for the future, meaning we could lose any rotation piece we have right now and easily replace him with a similar caliber guy. I think Detmers has the most upside of the bunch. My point is I think the rotation needs almost as much attention this winter as the bull pen.
Sign , urschella, but PLEASE dump loup. He’s the worst.
Brutal contracts with Trout, Rendon and Fletcher.
Shohei won’t be re-signing. No chance. He won’t be bought like Trout was.
Best move the Angels can make now would be to get a new owner.
I sure would like to see E Escobar on the coaching staff for the Angels someday. Seems like he made a big positive impression on Rengifo at least if not others.
Who is worth more= Soto or Ohtani?
Their name is redundant. Their owner interferes too much. Their GM is lousy. Their analytics department, player development department…each is grossly neglected. etc…
Start with owner selling.
New ownership/leadership can determine the course of action.
There are symptoms and causes. Start with cause