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2023-24 Offseason Outlook

2023-24 Offseason Outlook Series

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MLBTR’s annual Offseason Outlook series is now complete! We took a look at what each of the 30 teams might have in store for their winter transactions.  Each Outlook piece was also paired with a live chat, with MLBTR readers posing questions specifically devoted to that particular club.

Anxiously awaiting MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list?  Look for it Monday evening!

AL West

AL Central

AL East

NL West

NL Central

NL East

Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers

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Two offseasons of aggressive spending paid off as handsomely as possible for the Rangers, who captured the franchise’s first World Series championship.  With a repeat now possible, will the ownership and the front office continue to break the bank?

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

2024 financial commitments: $171.25MM (if Leclerc’s option is exercised)
Total future commitments: $636.083MM (if Leclerc’s option is exercised)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

Arguably baseball’s best lineup will return almost fully intact in 2024.  Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien, Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Jung, Jonah Heim, Leody Taveras, and Evan Carter form a tremendous core of everyday players, and this entire group is controlled through at least the 2026 season.  Considering that Seager spent six weeks on the injured list and that the younger players have higher ceilings, it is quite possible that the Rangers will be even better offensively, which is a scary proposition for opposing pitchers.

And, the lineup potential doesn’t stop there.  Ezequiel Duran had some ups and downs during his sophomore season, but Duran finished 2023 with above-average (107 wRC+) offense and an ability to at least passably handle multiple defensive positions, making him a valuable utility piece going forward.  Top prospect Wyatt Langford already advanced to Triple-A within a few months of being the fourth overall pick of the 2023 draft, so a Major League debut seems in the cards for next season.  Sam Huff and Josh H. Smith were well-regarded prospects in their own right, and still have breakout potential if they can find more regular playing time.

It adds up to such a bevy of options that the Rangers could decide to simply part ways with some of their veteran free agents.  Robbie Grossman and Travis Jankowski performed capably well sharing time with Duran in left field last season, but Carter’s emergence means that that revolving door in left field has been now been closed.  Grossman’s ability to mash left-handed pitching makes him a nice compliment to the left-handed hitting Carter, though Texas might see Duran as a suitable in-house candidate as a part-time right-handed bat.

From Grossman’s own perspective, he might prefer joining a team with a clearer path to regular playing time, even if the idea of re-upping with the World Series champs has some natural appeal.  If Grossman does leave, Jankowski comes at a cheaper price tag, and is more of a traditional backup outfielder given Jankowski’s ability to play all three positions on the grass.  That said, Carter and Garcia can also fill in as a center fielder when Taveras is out of the lineup, and Langford’s impending arrival could give Carter more of a role in center field anyway down the road.

Signing some kind of veteran bench option seems like a logical move for Texas, whether that veteran is a familiar face like Grossman or Jankowski, or a newcomer eager to play for a contender.  As tremendous as Carter looked throughout September and during the playoffs, some regression is probably inevitable once opposing pitchers get a book on the outfield phenom.  Injuries and a lack of performance made Brad Miller a non-factor for most of 2023, so the Rangers could look to add a Miller-type of player that can provide versatility in the infield as well as the outfield.

The backup catching role will also have to be resolved.  Huff’s glovework is still a question mark, so Texas could opt to re-sign Austin Hedges as a pure defensive specialist behind everyday starter Heim.  Or, the Rangers could look to entirely bring the band back together by re-signing Mitch Garver and reinstalling him into the primary DH/backup catcher role.

This usage worked so well in 2023 that reuniting with Garver is surely tempting for the Rangers.  It is possible Garver might even accept the qualifying offer if issued, as he’d land a $20.325MM payday for the 2024 season and return to a comfortable environment.  On the other hand, Garver is also the top free agent catcher on the market, so a longer-term contract elsewhere would certainly seem to be on the table.  Garver’s injury history might preclude him from being a true full-time catcher, though he could pursue a DH/catcher role similar to the one he held in Texas.

Qualifying offers must be issued by November 6, and that short timeframe adds another wrinkle to how the Rangers might approach Garver.  If Garver did receive a QO and he accepted, that would essentially solidify the Rangers’ plans for the DH spot heading into 2024.  On the one hand, that’s a bit of important winter business handled early….except that this particular offseason happens to have a certain generational talent available who needs a designated hitter role.

Would anyone be surprised if Shohei Ohtani was wearing a Rangers uniform on Opening Day?  Given how owners Ray Davis and Bob Simpson have boosted the club’s payroll over the last two seasons, another splurge to land Ohtani can’t be ruled out, even if Ohtani’s contract tops the $500MM mark.  Texas has been on Ohtani’s radar before, as due to the Rangers’ and Cubs’ association with Yu Darvish, Texas and Chicago were the only two non-West Coast teams on Ohtani’s short list when he first came to North American baseball during the 2017-18 offseason.

Fast forward to the 2023-24 offseason, and it isn’t known if geography is necessarily a factor in Ohtani’s eventual decision.  But, the Rangers can financially compete with anyone and they just won a championship, so one would imagine they’d be an attractive destination given Ohtani’s stated desire to win.  Technically, signing Ohtani might be a luxury for a team that already might be facing a slight logjam of too many up-and-coming players for too few positions, yet Ohtani is such a special player that Texas would be happy to figure out a talent surplus after the fact.

Since the Rangers exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2023, they’d have to give up two draft picks and $1MM in international bonus pool money in order to sign Ohtani or any other free agent who rejects a qualifying offer.  This probably isn’t going to be a huge roadblock to the Rangers’ offseason plans, nor is the club likely to shy away from crossing the $237MM tax threshold again in 2024.  The Rangers were willing to give up multiple draft picks to sign qualified free agents like Seager, Semien, Jacob deGrom, and Nathan Eovaldi over the last two offseasons, but now facing the steeper tax penalty, it is possible the team ramps down slightly and only pursues maybe one QO-rejecting free agent.

For as much money as Texas has spent in the last two years, GM Chris Young is still working with a good deal of financial flexibility.  Seager, Semien, and deGrom alone take up a hefty chunk of the payroll, but they are also the only three players signed beyond the 2025 season.  This gives Young some freedom to look into other long-term deals, whether that translates as possible extensions (there’s merit to locking up Jung or Carter right now, for instance) or spending more money to solidify the pitching staff.

Though the Rangers just won a championship with more than a few question marks on the pitching front, the rotation and bullpen figure to be the major offseason target areas.  DeGrom is aiming to return in August 2024 after undergoing Tommy John surgery last June, but with that rehab situation still very fluid, the Rangers can count on a starting staff of Eovaldi, Max Scherzer, Jon Gray, and Dane Dunning for the time being.

Cody Bradford and Owen White represent in-house depth options, and Andrew Heaney could just remain as the fifth starter if he doesn’t exercise his opt-out clause.  Heaney would be leaving $13MM on the table if he did choose to opt out, and MLBTR’s Nick Deeds recently explored the pros and cons Heaney and his representatives are undoubtedly weighing as they consider the left-hander’s next step.

Even if Heaney did remain, the Rangers are still going to be looking to add pitching.  Dunning or Heaney both pitched well enough to deserve rotation spots under normal circumstances, yet either could be used in the bullpen or in some type of unofficial sixth starter role.  Having extra pitching on hand is a logical move for depth purposes, especially considering Eovaldi’s past injury history, and the 39-year-old Scherzer battling through a number of nagging injuries in 2023.

Jordan Montgomery is the obvious name on the Rangers’ pitching wishlist, as the southpaw was such a key figure in the club’s title run after being acquired from the Cardinals at the trade deadline.  Montgomery’s performance only elevated his free agent price tag, and since he is ineligible for the qualifying offer, he is all the more attractive to any teams wary of surrendering draft picks.  Texas will be vying against several other teams for Montgomery’s services, but again, the Rangers have the money, the championship pedigree, and some built-in familiarity with Montgomery that might make them the favorite in this bidding war.

Ohtani’s Tommy John surgery removes him as a pitching option for 2024, yet he could slide into an open spot in 2025 since Scherzer, Heaney, and possibly Eovaldi could all be free agents next offseason.  Looking at other top pitchers on the market, the Rangers have been scouting Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and the likes of Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, or Sonny Gray could all be targets, even if those three will undoubtedly come with QO-attached draft penalties attached.  Local product Clayton Kershaw has been on the Rangers’ radar for the last two offseasons, but the news that Kershaw will be out until at least next summer due to shoulder surgery will complicate a pursuit, beyond whether or not Kershaw would leave the Dodgers.

Though the Rangers’ relief corps was more stable during the playoffs, the bullpen’s volatility during the regular season almost cost Texas a postseason berth altogether.  Jose Leclerc was the steadiest member of the pen, and his club option is a lock to be exercised as Leclerc re-established himself as the closer throughout the playoffs.  Will Smith acted as closer for much of 2023 and the Rangers will likely try to re-sign the veteran, both due to his steady results and the unofficial league rule that Smith’s team always wins the World Series.

Josh Sborz and Brock Burke will return, and Dunning, Heaney, or Bradford could again be part of the relief mix depending on what happens in the rotation.  Re-signing Martin Perez might be another option on this front, if Perez is willing to pitch primarily in a relief role or as a swingman at best.  But it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Texas bring in three or four more relief options, ranging from low-cost veterans on minor league deals or the very top of the market.

As such, Josh Hader figures to be part of the offseason conversation in Arlington.  Signing the free agent market’s top closer would instantly make the bullpen a lot more formidable, and solve perhaps the only weak link on the roster.  Hader is another free agent who will reject a qualifying offer, which is another consideration for the Rangers to make as they also weigh whether or not it is wiser to splurge on Hader, or to devote their resources to multiple relievers.  The latter strategy carries its own set of risks, as the reliever class has already started to thin out since the Braves re-signed Joe Jimenez and Pierce Johnson before they hit the open market.

For all of this focus on free agency, we shouldn’t at all ignore the possibility that the Rangers might use the trade market for upgrades, especially after Young’s bold deadline moves to land Montgomery and Scherzer.  The aforementioned semi-surplus of position players could be solved in part by moving some of the younger talent in a trade.  It is fair to say that Carter and Langford are more than untouchable, yet it wouldn’t be a shock to see Duran, Smith, or Huff dealt.  Dipping further into the minors, infield prospects like Justin Foscue or longer-term prospects like Sebastian Walcott or Cameron Cauley could be trade chips, as Seager, Semien, and Jung look to have the infield locked down for the foreseeable future.

All manner of possibilities are open to the Rangers this winter, and Young’s front office can also operate with a bit of unique freedom in the sense that they’re already triumphed.  With one trophy already secured and so much talent in place, the next challenge for Young will be figuring out how to set up the 2023 champions into a potential dynasty.

In conjunction with this post, Mark Polishuk held a Rangers-centric live chat with MLBTR readers.  Click here to read the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

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The Diamondbacks overcame a midseason slump to play their way into the National League’s final playoff spot. They followed up an 84-78 regular season showing with a surprising run. That ended in disappointing fashion, as the Snakes dropped a five-game World Series to the Rangers. They’re now on to the offseason as they take their first steps in trying to get back to the Fall Classic.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Corbin Carroll, LF: $105MM through 2030 (including buyout of ’31 club option)
  • Ketel Marte, 2B: $62MM through 2027 (including buyout of ’28 club option)
  • Merrill Kelly, RHP: $9MM through 2024 (including buyout of ’25 club option)
  • Miguel Castro, RHP: $5MM through 2024*
  • Scott McGough, RHP: $3.75MM through 2024 (including buyout of ’25 mutual option)
  • Jace Peterson, 3B: $3MM through 2024 (A’s paying down $2MM of Peterson’s $5MM salary)

* Castro’s vesting option is conditional on passing end-of-season physical

Option Decisions

  • Team and RHP Mark Melancon hold $5MM mutual option ($2MM buyout)

Additional Financial Commitments

2024 financial commitments: $51.3MM
Total future commitments: $204.05MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Adams, Lewis, Mantiply

Free Agents

Arizona faces a couple immediate questions with the turnaround to the offseason. They’ll make the easy decision to buy out their end of a $5MM mutual option on Mark Melancon, who missed the entire season after a Spring Training shoulder strain. He’ll collect a $2MM buyout to conclude a free agent deal that didn’t work out.

There’s another question the front office will need to decide as it sets its offseason agenda: whether they’ll try to retain Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on a multi-year contract. The righty-hitting left fielder had a strong season in the desert. The third piece in the Daulton Varsho/Gabriel Moreno trade, Gurriel turned in a .261/.309/.463 batting line with a career-high 24 home runs over 592 plate appearances. He paired that with an elite +14 Defensive Runs Saved in 778 left field innings, although Statcast’s defensive metric pegged him closer to league average.

Baseball Reference pegged his contributions around three wins above replacement, while he typically falls in the 2-3 WAR range. He’s a solid everyday left fielder and could find a three- or four-year deal. The D-Backs opened the 2023 campaign with a player payroll around $116MM — the #21 figure in the majors, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. If they don’t want to meet Gurriel’s asking price, they’ll likely look for external corner outfield help. Deadline acquisition Tommy Pham is also headed to free agency.

Arizona likely has two outfield spots secured. Corbin Carroll turned in a Rookie of the Year season in the first year of his eight-year extension. He’s a true franchise building block. Alek Thomas had a mediocre regular season offensively, reaching base at a meager .273 clip. He hit well in October and brings plus center field defense (error in last night’s game notwithstanding) and baserunning to the table. Between his secondary skills and strong prospect reputation, he’ll probably get the first look in center field.

The rest of the outfield is uncertain. Jake McCarthy had a disappointing follow-up to his surprisingly strong rookie year. While Dominic Fletcher hit well in a limited sample, he’s a 26-year-old with 28 major league games under his belt. Neither former 7th overall pick Pavin Smith nor 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis made much of an impact. They could each be let go. Jorge Barrosa is on the 40-man roster but has yet to make his MLB debut.

Arizona isn’t going to be in the Cody Bellinger mix. Any other free agent outfielder could fit within their payroll window. Including projected salaries for their group of arbitration-eligible players, the Snakes have around $86MM in commitments for next year. That leaves around $30MM before reaching this past season’s Opening Day mark. They’re around $50MM shy of the franchise’s approximate $131MM record. While they’re six years removed from that level, it stands to reason they could push near or past those heights after hosting seven playoff games and with a goal of backing up this year’s success.

Aside from Bellinger, the top free agent outfielder is Teoscar Hernández. He could require draft pick forfeiture as a potential qualifying offer recipient and might land a four-year deal. Gurriel, Jorge Soler and KBO star Jung Hoo Lee are among the next tier down. On the trade front, players like Alex Verdugo (projected $9.2MM salary), Max Kepler ($10MM) and Anthony Santander (projected at $12.7MM) may be available as rental options.

Arizona has a strong infield in place. Christian Walker is an underrated contributor at first base. A $12.7MM projection for his final year of arbitration isn’t insignificant, but there’s enough payroll room that the D-Backs can accommodate it to retain a Gold Glove defender with 35-homer potential. Ketel Marte had another great season at second base.

The left side of the infield is a little less settled, though it’s not for lack of options. Arizona released longtime shortstop Nick Ahmed in September, a move made in tandem with the promotion of top prospect Jordan Lawlar. The latter didn’t get much action in the postseason, with Arizona relying on a collection of Geraldo Perdomo, Emmanuel Rivera and Evan Longoria between shortstop and third base.

Perdomo’s offense fell off in the second half, but he had an All-Star first couple months and a strong postseason. Neither Rivera nor Jace Peterson offer much offensively. Longoria is a free agent, while Lawlar only has 32 games above Double-A.

There’s enough uncertainty at third base that the front office could add a veteran. Perhaps that’s a reunion with Longoria should he continue playing. Justin Turner is likely to decline a player option with the Red Sox. While he’s not an everyday third baseman at this stage of his career, he could see some action there while logging the bulk of the designated hitter reps.

If Lawlar takes the third base job (or plays shortstop, pushing Perdomo to the hot corner), a Longoria or Turner type could move fully to DH. Old friend J.D. Martinez obviously isn’t an option at third base, but he’s a possibility if the Snakes are content to bring in a DH-only bat to replace the offense with Gurriel, Longoria and Pham hitting free agency.

Arizona has one of the best young catchers in the game with Moreno under club control through 2028. Bringing in a low-cost backup who pushes José Herrera down the depth chart is a possibility. Tucker Barnhart, Martín Maldonado and Eric Haase are free agents.

While there are a few questions on the position player side, the biggest issue for the front office is filling the back of the rotation. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly make for a strong top two. Brandon Pfaadt had a tough regular season as a rookie before an impressive run in the playoffs. Neither Ryne Nelson nor Tommy Henry (the latter of whom missed the second half with an elbow injury) has established himself as more than a depth starter. Slade Cecconi has made only four MLB starts.

Adding one or two pitchers to fill out the rotation should be the top priority for GM Mike Hazen and his staff. The D-Backs aren’t likely to meet a potential $200MM+ asking price on Blake Snell or NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. There’s enough spending room they could be a factor on anyone else in the class, although a run at Aaron Nola or Jordan Montgomery would require easily their biggest investment since their surprising $206.5MM strike for Zack Greinke eight years ago.

Sonny Gray and Eduardo Rodriguez could be available for similar outlays to the $85MM guarantee the Snakes awarded Madison Bumgarner in 2019. Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Mike Clevinger and Michael Lorenzen (a reported deadline target of Arizona’s this past summer) are among the middle tier veterans. Lucas Giolito is a volatile option after a rough second half, while Frankie Montas and Luis Severino are pure rebound candidates.

On the trade front, Shane Bieber, Nick Pivetta and Adrian Houser could be on the move as they’re a year from free agency. Cal Quantrill, José Urquidy (with whom pitching coach Brent Strom is familiar from his time with the Astros) and Spencer Turnbull are multi-year trade possibilities.

In recent offseasons, the bullpen has been a focus for Arizona. While that might not be as strong a priority after the deadline acquisition of Paul Sewald, there’s still room to deepen the setup corps. Kevin Ginkel has emerged as a quality eighth inning arm. Andrew Saalfrank flashed impressive stuff as a rookie. Miguel Castro, Scott McGough and Kyle Nelson have middle relief spots but are coming off middling seasons. That’s also true of 2022 All-Star Joe Mantiply, who dropped behind Saalfrank as the top lefty option in the playoffs.

It’s hard to envision Arizona making a serious push for Josh Hader given their needs on the rotation front. Reynaldo López and Jordan Hicks are free agent setup types who’ll command multi-year deals. If the D-Backs want to bring in a left-hander, Matt Moore and Wandy Peralta are among the options.

Aside from supplementary acquisitions, the D-Backs could devote some of their long-term payroll room to extension negotiations. Arizona holds two more seasons of arbitration control on Gallen, who is on track to hit free agency before his age-30 campaign. He’d surely beat the five years and $64.5MM that Kyle Freeland received in the same service class. Logan Webb landed a five-year, $90MM guarantee in an extension with the Giants that went into effect beginning in his 4-5 service year, setting a potential benchmark for Gallen’s camp.

Moreno is the other top extension possibility. He has more MLB success than Keibert Ruiz did when he inked an eight-year, $50MM deal with the Nationals in the same service bracket. It’s possible a guarantee in that range that only buys out two or three free agent years — as opposed to the potential five seasons covered by the Ruiz extension — is mutually agreeable.

While it remains to be seen if the Snakes can get a long-term deal done with any of their players, one extension seems quite likely to be hammered out. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote last month the D-Backs were likely to award an extension to manager Torey Lovullo. Arizona already signed Hazen through 2028. A similar term for the seventh-year skipper — who is currently under contract through next season — could be on the docket.

This year didn’t conclude with the championship that everyone in the Chase Field offices was seeking. Their relatively surprising playoff performance reinforced that they’ve moved into a win-now window. They’ll face challenges from their bigger-spending competitors in the NL West. The D-Backs are no longer upstarts. Beginning today, they set out to prove they have staying power.

Note: The original version of this post listed Lourdes Gurriel as a qualifying offer candidate. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports that Gurriel is ineligible to receive the QO under the terms of his contract.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Diamondbacks-specific chat on 11-2-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

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The Phillies held 2-0 and 3-2 leads in the NLCS, but dropped Games 6 and 7 at home to fall short of another World Series appearance.  There is no doubt the Phils will reload for another championship run in 2024, yet they’ll have to address the possible departure of two long-time franchise staples.

Guaranteed Contracts

Total 2024 commitments: $179.9MM
Total long-term commitments: $724.73MM

Option Decisions

  • Scott Kingery, IF/OF: $13MM club option for 2024 ($1MM buyout; Phillies also hold $29MM worth of club options on Kingery for the 2025-26 seasons)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

Only four of the 40 players drafted by the Phillies in the 2014 draft ended up reaching the majors, with Austin Davis making 136 appearances (50 for Philadelphia) and Brandon Leibrandt pitching in five games with the Marlins in 2020.  Fortunately for the Phils, their other two selections paid bigger dividends, as seventh overall pick Aaron Nola debuted barely a year after his draft date and became a front-of-the-rotation cornerstone.  Rhys Hoskins didn’t reach the Show until 2017, but he finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting in his debut season and provided six seasons of solid (126 wRC+) offense as the team’s regular first baseman, after an ill-advised experiment as a left fielder early in his career.

Both players are now set to hit the open market, and for Hoskins, he didn’t even get to properly enjoy what might be a final year in the City of Brotherly Love.  A torn left ACL during Spring Training cost Hoskins his entire season, and his subsequent efforts to possibly make it back for some DH duty during the World Series were cut short when the Phillies were ousted by the Diamondbacks in the NLCS.

One of Dave Dombrowski’s first major moves after being hired as president of baseball operations in late 2020 was to re-sign J.T. Realmuto in free agency during the 2020-21 offseason.  So, Dombrowski and the Philadelphia organization in general aren’t afraid to bring back their own guys, even at a high price tag driven by the open market.  Re-signing Realmuto cost five years and $115.5MM, and it looks like it’ll take way more to bring Nola back into the fold, as reports have suggested that the two sides were far apart in previous extension talks.  The Phillies were reportedly looking to retain Nola for four or five more seasons, but the right-hander and his camp was aiming for an eight-year pact worth more than $200MM.

Nola is going to be one of the top pitchers available this winter, and even with the price of pitching always high on the free agent market, it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to approach the $200MM threshold.  Nola doesn’t turn 31 until June and he has a long track record of durability, plus 2022 was arguably the best season of his career.  However, Nola was more good than great in 2023, as an inflated home run rate led to a 4.46 ERA over 193 2/3 innings, and his 25.5% strikeout rate was his lowest since 2016.

The Phillies will make re-signing Nola “our priority,” according to Dombrowski, so a reunion might well be coming.  Or, if the club has doubts about Nola’s production beyond his mid-30’s, the team might feel its free agent dollars are best spent elsewhere.  The question then becomes whether or not Philadelphia might make another rotation splash, especially with some other long-term questions surrounding Zack Wheeler’s future.

The 2024 rotation currently lines up as Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Taijuan Wallker, Cristopher Sanchez, and potentially Matt Strahm as the fifth starter.  Strahm looked quite good as a fill-in starter early in the season before being moved back to the bullpen and continuing to excel in relief work.  Philadelphia could explore stretching out Strahm in Spring Training to give him a fuller look as a starting pitcher and let him compete for any possible open rotation job.  Top prospect Mick Abel figures to make his MLB debut sometime in 2024, and another top minor leaguer in Andrew Painter is likely out of next season’s plans entirely since he underwent Tommy John surgery last July.

It is perhaps worth mentioning the hard feelings that seem to have emerged with Walker and club management, as the right-hander has shown some public displeasure on social media over not being used during the playoffs.  This doesn’t necessarily suggest that Walker will be traded or anything, and a deal might be hard to find anyway.  Walker had a modest 4.38 ERA and some very lackluster secondary numbers over 172 2/3 innings in 2023, and he still has $54MM remaining on a contract signed just last winter.  Cooler heads might very well prevail over the course of the offseason, but this could perhaps be an under-the-radar situation to monitor on the trade front.

Of course, trading a starter isn’t likely to happen until the Phillies have figured out how to replace Nola.  If the righty doesn’t re-sign, the Phils could explore signing Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, or Jordan Montgomery as the team’s next long-term ace.  Wheeler is set for free agency himself next winter, and will still command another big payday beyond his age-34 season if he keeps pitching as well as he did in 2023.  The Phillies figure to discuss an extension with Wheeler this winter, and if he is amenable to a relatively short-term pact given his age, perhaps he might be the one who ends up with a new deal of four or five seasons.

Philadelphia doesn’t have the deepest farm system in the world, but with the team in clear win-now mode, Dombrowski could again dip into the minor league ranks to explore adding another arm.  Tyler Glasnow, Corbin Burnes, or Shane Bieber are all one-year rentals and would be available at the right (hefty) price, while the more controllable starters on the trade market would come at an even steeper cost of talent.

The bullpen also needs some attention, as Craig Kimbrel is set to return to the open market after his one year as the Phillies’ closer.  Kimbrel pitched well for much of the season, but a pair of high-profile blowups during the NLCS cost Philadelphia two games and his closer’s role for the rest of the series.  While a small sample size, it does continue Kimbrel’s somewhat inconsistent play over the last three seasons, and the Phillies might not want to take a chance again if they have doubts over Kimbrel’s ability to perform in the playoff spotlight.

Jose Alvarado is the obvious internal name to become closer if Kimbrel isn’t re-signed, and if Orion Kerkering is ready for a bigger role in his first full MLB season, the Phillies might look towards only more mid-tier names in their offseason bullpen shopping.  Of course, with the team’s propensity for big-ticket moves, there will probably be some level of speculation linking Josh Hader to the Phils until Hader eventually picks his next team.

While Kimbrel, Hoskins, Nola, and Michael Lorenzen represent a decent chunk of money coming off the books, the Phillies already have (as per Roster Resource) roughly $212.3MM in actual dollars and a $228MM luxury tax number attached to their 2024 payroll.  Last season’s Opening Day payroll sat close to the $243MM mark, and with a tax number around $263MM — above the second tax tier, but under the $273MM threshold that would’ve triggered a ten-position drop for Philadelphia’s first pick in the 2024 draft.

It isn’t known exactly where managing partner John Middleton might draw the line on spending, but Middleton clearly has no issue in committing big money to keep the Phillies in contention.  After the last two seasons’ worth of close calls, Middleton might be even more willing to spend to add the final pieces to the championship puzzle.

To this end, the Phillies will at least check in on Shohei Ohtani out of pure due diligence if nothing else.  Obviously such a signing would be an imperfect fit within the Phils’ lineup, as Ohtani in the DH slot would lock in Bryce Harper at first base and Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos into corner outfield duty.  But, since the Phillies are one of the organizations with deep enough pockets to meet Ohtani’s record-setting asking price, they make sense as a potential suitor for the two-way star this winter.

Accommodating Ohtani might be a reason for the Phillies to cost themselves some positional flexibility, yet doing the same to re-sign Hoskins might be another matter.  Hoskins is likely to just sign a one-year deal this winter as he attempts to prove himself healthy and worthy of a longer-term contract next offseason, so re-signing Hoskins wouldn’t represent a huge investment for Philadelphia.  The team might even issue Hoskins a qualifying offer, if they’re okay with paying Hoskins $20.5MM coming off a torn ACL since it’s hard to imagine the first baseman would turn down such a payday.  With Hoskins so likely to accept a QO, the Phillies might want to hold off on further clogging their first base/DH situation until they get a better read on Ohtani’s market.

Harper’s ability to handle first base gave the Phils more defensive flexibility last year, allowing for Schwarber to DH and for both Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas to get more looks in the outfield.  Harper may also return to at least part-time work in his old right field position, now that he is further removed from his Tommy John surgery.  In short, keeping a first base-only player like Hoskins would limit what the Phillies could do around the diamond.  Defense continued to be a problem for the Phillies over the course of the 2023 season, and since the everyday lineup is already pretty set, adding a utility type instead of Hoskins would add more overall depth.

The relative stability of the starting lineup presents Dombrowski with an interesting challenge this winter.  Almost every team would love to have a core like Philadelphia’s star-laden lineup, and an argument can easily be made that the Phils should just run things back with the same group in 2024 and hope things can fully click in October.  “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” might apply here, except the NLCS might have revealed some cracks in that foundation.

For instance, could the Phillies explore trading either Castellanos or Alec Bohm?  Castellanos hit for more power and had a lot more strikeouts in 2023, but the two were similarly productive overall — Bohm had a 105 wRC+ and 1.1 fWAR, while Castellanos had a 109 wRC+ and 1.0 fWAR.  Offense was the backbone of those fWAR numbers, as Castellanos was again very subpar in right field while Bohm actually improved to above-average third base glovework in the views of the UZR/150 and OAA metrics, even if Defensive Runs Saved (-10) continued to dismiss his efforts.

Obviously, trading Bohm would be a lot simpler for the Phils from a salary perspective.  The former third overall pick is just entering his arbitration years and is controlled through 2026, while Castellanos’ contract entitles him to $60MM over that same timeframe.  Barring taking on another team’s undesirable contract, the Phillies would have to either eat money in a Castellanos trade or include some significant prospect capital to sweeten the pot, whereas a rival club might think Bohm could fully break out with a change of scenery.

Moving Castellanos would further help the Phillies’ defensive issues, as either Harper could just return to right field and a new first baseman (or a re-signed Hoskins) could join the fold, or Philadelphia could obtain a new corner outfielder altogether.  Likewise, trading Bohm could open up third base for a better defensive option and a more proven hitter.

This is all easier said than done, of course, and team chemistry elements must be considered beyond just a pure baseball fit.  However, Dombrowski has a long history of creative trades, whether it’s trading prospects for proven stars or even dealing an established big league player (i.e. Rick Porcello for Yoenis Cespedes, or Prince Fielder for Ian Kinsler) for another that may be a better fit for his team’s needs.  While the pitching staff will be the Phillies’ top priority this winter, not much can be ruled out when Dombrowski is making calls, Middleton is willing to write the checks, and the pressure to win is increasing after two near-misses.

In conjunction with this post, Mark Polishuk held a Phillies-centric live chat with MLBTR readers.  Click here to read the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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Getting swept out of the ALDS by the Rangers brought a sour end to an otherwise very successful season in Baltimore.  The Orioles won 101 games to capture the AL East, and the best may be yet to come given all of the young talent still to emerge out of the loaded farm system.

Guaranteed Contracts

Other Financial Obligations

Total 2024 commitments: $5MM
Total future commitments: $8MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

The O’s turned the corner on their rebuild by winning 83 games in 2022, yet general manager Mike Elias has thus far taken a conservative response to his team’s breakout.  He still opted to sell at the 2022 trade deadline, yet the deals of Trey Mancini to the Astros and (especially) Jorge Lopez to the Twins now look quite shrewd in the bigger picture.  Elias then made mostly short-term moves last winter, adding Kyle Gibson, Adam Frazier, and Mychal Givens on one-year contracts and acquiring James McCann in a salary dump of a trade with the Mets.  Even at this past season’s trade deadline, with the Orioles posting one of baseball’s top records, Elias picked up the struggling Jack Flaherty rather than a more prominent starting pitcher.  As it turned out, Flaherty didn’t pitch well in Baltimore, and fell out of the rotation entirely by September.

The big question facing the Orioles this winter is simply, will Elias and team ownership get more aggressive in adding win-now pieces to what might be a burgeoning powerhouse?  Some caution was understandable after 2022 since Elias probably didn’t want to jump to conclusions that his team was ready to contend….yet a 101-win season now removes all doubt.

Baltimore’s rebuilding process led to a corresponding slash of spending, as the Orioles have been a bottom-four payroll team in each of the last five seasons.  As per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Orioles’ Opening Day payroll in 2023 was slightly under $61MM, and the second-lowest total of any team.  Based on their negligible long-term salary commitments and the projections of their arbitration-eligible players, the O’s have only $58.5MM lined up for their 2024 payroll, and even that number should be a bit smaller in the event of a few non-tenders from the arb class.

It’s worth remembering that during their last contention window in the mid-10s, the Orioles were regularly in the top half in league spending, and ranked as high as ninth in Opening Day payroll (a little under $147.7MM) heading into the 2016 season.  This doesn’t mean that the Orioles need to vault back up to that number over the course of one winter, but an argument can surely be made that Elias and the team have earned a larger investment in their on-field endeavors.

Unfortunately, ownership’s top priority right now might not be on the team itself.  The Orioles and the state of Maryland reached a “memorandum of understanding” in September that laid the groundwork for the O’s to remain in Baltimore for the next 30 years, in addition to a wider-ranging project that will see extra land surrounding Camden Yards be redeveloped into something of a ballpark village, akin to the Battery area adjacent to the Braves’ Truist Park.  While there seems to be an understanding in place between the team and civic officials that the deal will be completed soon, the fact remains that the agreement isn’t yet set in stone, even with the Orioles’ current least at Camden Yards expiring on December 31.

As such, it doesn’t seem like the player payroll will get any major boost until these future revenue streams have been firmly secured, or even until the revenues start rolling in for the team.  “I don’t think you should run losses.  I think you should live within your means and within your market,” club chairman/CEO John Angelos told the New York Times’ Tyler Kepner in August.  In regards to player salaries, Angelos explained “let’s say we sat down and showed you the financials for the Orioles.  You will quickly see that when people talk about giving this player $200MM, that player $150MM, we would be so financially underwater that you’d have to raise the prices massively.  Now, are people going to come and pay that?….But really that’s just one team. What I’m really trying to think about is macro.”

Angelos’ interview quickly became infamous among Baltimore fans, and may have halted any speculation that the team might pursue contract extensions with Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, Jordan Westburg, or any other Orioles blue-chipper youngsters.  Or, that the O’s will make a big splash on a top-tier free agent this offseason as a veteran leader for its young core.  This doesn’t mean that the payroll won’t go up to some extent, as the Orioles did at least increase spending by around $17MM from 2022 to 2023.  But, if the front office is still being limited in what it can spend, Elias will have to get creative in adding some needed pieces to the roster.

The bright side for Elias is that his roster might already be pretty set.  The Austin Hays/Cedric Mullins/Anthony Santander outfield can return intact, Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn can split first base and DH duties with O’Hearn chipping in as a corner outfielder, Rutschman is locked in at catcher, Henderson will play every day at either third base or shortstop, and some combination of Westburg, Ramon Urias, and Jorge Mateo can handle second base and the other infield position that Henderson isn’t playing.

If this wasn’t enough, top prospects Heston Kjerstad, Joey Ortiz, and Colton Cowser all made their MLB debuts in 2023, and 2019 second-round pick Kyle Stowers is part of the outfield picture.  And if that wasn’t enough, the O’s also have Jackson Holliday (the top prospect in baseball) perhaps ready to make his debut as early as Opening Day, not to mention the likes of Coby Mayo, Connor Norby, Dylan Beavers, and Jud Fabian also knocking on the door for big league playing time.

Not all of these prospects will pan out, of course, and different rival teams undoubtedly have their own varying opinions on minor leaguers throughout the Orioles’ farm system.  But, it isn’t a stretch to say that Baltimore has the prospect depth to get involved in talks about almost any available trade target in baseball, thus giving Elias a way to add premium talent without spending big on a notable free agent contract.  In fact, the O’s could even explore adding a high-priced trade target and have the other team cover most of the player’s salary, provided the Orioles are willing to up the amount of young talent they gave up in return.

Likewise, the Orioles’ faith in their youngsters could also turn some of their own more experienced players into trade chips.  If the O’s think Mayo is ready to contribute right away in the corner infield picture, they could look to trade Mountcastle to a team in need of first base help.  If Westburg is seen as an everyday player and Holliday is coming quickly, one of Urias or Mateo could be dealt to an infield-needy club.  Kjerstad or Cowser might be able to step into an outfield role, thus making Mullins, Hays, or (most likely of the group) Santander available.

Santander’s projected $12.7MM arbitration salary puts him on pace to be the team’s highest-paid player in 2024, and he is set to enter free agency in the 2024-25 offseason.  As productive a player as Santander still is, if Baltimore doesn’t see him as part of the future, now might be the time to sell.

With so much position-player depth still in the pipeline, odds are that the Orioles will be wary about adding an everyday-type of player in trades or free agency, as they either don’t want to block a prospect at a certain position, or give up assets to address a position when an internal answer might already be in place.  One possible exception might be Aaron Hicks, whose path to re-signing with Baltimore might only come if one of the Santander/Mullins/Hays trio is traded.  Since the Yankees are still footing the bill on Hicks’ contract for the next two seasons, Hicks can sign for just a minimum contract in free agency, thus giving him the freedom to pick any contender he wants for 2024 or beyond.  Considering how Hicks revived his career after joining the O’s this year, one would imagine he’d certainly have interest in a reunion, and the Orioles might also see Hicks as a needed veteran voice if another outfielder was indeed moved.

If Baltimore does make a blockbuster trade this winter, it is much more likely that it will involve adding a starting pitcher.  To be clear, the Orioles’ rotation is only a weak link in relative terms — as MLBTR’s Nick Deeds recently observed, the pitching staff improved as the season went on, which augurs well for 2024.  The highly-touted Rodriguez got better and better during his rookie year, the O’s will have a full year of John Means now that he’s recovered from Tommy John surgery, and Kyle Bradish was quietly one of the better starters in all of baseball.

With this trio, the solid Dean Kremer, and Tyler Wells, Cole Irvin, Bruce Zimmermann, and DL Hall all battling for a fifth starter’s job, that’s not a bad amount of depth already in the fold.  And, of course, there’s some help on the farm, with Seth Johnson, Cade Povich, Chayce McDermott all likely to be in line for MLB innings next season.  However, even with the caveat that the Rangers’ mighty lineup can make a lot of pitching staffs look bad, the playoffs indicated that Baltimore doesn’t yet have a true frontline rotation.

Re-signing Gibson wouldn’t be too expensive a gambit, yet it can be argued that a mid-rotation arm who can eat innings might not be a priority considering how the rest of the staff developed.  For a division winner looking to contend for a championship, the Orioles could aim higher at a true ace.  Signing a Yoshinobu Yamamoto or a Blake Snell in free agency doesn’t seem feasible given how the O’s don’t seem willing to spend at that level yet, but the trade market presents some interesting options.

Corbin Burnes and Shane Bieber are widely seen as two of the winter’s prime candidates, as both pitchers are a year away from free agency.  Brandon Woodruff’s shoulder surgery might change the equation of the Brewers’ willingness to move Burnes, yet Milwaukee is always in need of the kind of controllable, MLB-ready young players that the Orioles can provide.  Bieber isn’t quite the clear-cut ace he was in his Cy Young-winning prime, yet he would be a nice addition to Baltimore’s rotation, and the Guardians are in sore need of hitting help (particularly in the outfield).  The question here would be how much would the Orioles be willing to give up for just one year of a pitcher’s services, if the O’s wouldn’t be open to re-signing either next offseason.

Tyler Glasnow, Zack Wheeler, and Max Fried are also pitchers slated for free agency after 2024, but they’re all less-likely fits for Baltimore.  While the Rays will probably be open to moving Glasnow’s $25MM salary, moving him to their chief division rival seems improbable.  The Phillies and Braves each have other rotation concerns this offseason that might preclude dealing an ace-level pitcher.

Moving onto more controllable arms, the Orioles still have lots of possibilities.  The Mariners would want the moon and stars to trade George Kirby or Logan Gilbert, but Baltimore’s galaxy of elite prospects would get their attention.  The White Sox want to return to contention next year but if their plans change, Dylan Cease could be available.  The Tigers’ collection of young pitchers have been hampered by early-career injuries, but could be on Baltimore’s radar since Detroit needs some bats.  The Dodgers have a lot of young arms who just made their MLB debuts in 2023, and if L.A. can obtain a veteran arm or two to shore up its rotation, the Dodgers could then address their needs around the diamond by discussing a swap of young pitching for young hitting with the O’s.

Baltimore’s pitching search may also have to expand to the bullpen, now that Felix Bautista will miss all of 2024 due to Tommy John surgery.  The superstar closer was a huge part of the Orioles’ success, and there’s no easy replacement even if Yennier Cano (or Danny Coulombe or Bryan Baker) could step into the ninth-inning role in 2024.  Trading premium prospects for relief pitching doesn’t seem too likely, in part because Wells or Hall might stick in the bullpen if they aren’t needed for rotation work, and because Elias has been so adept at finding and developing relievers.

While that knack for finding hidden gems isn’t easily replicated, the Orioles are probably more likely to again target relievers who haven’t quite emerged at the MLB level yet, despite some quality stuff and upside.  The O’s made such an acquisition in landing Shintaro Fujinami from the Athletics back in July, and while Fujinami didn’t pitch great in Baltimore, the club might consider bringing him back on an inexpensive deal for a second look.

All in all, the Orioles figure to be involved in any number of trade rumors this winter, as rival clubs will undoubtedly be coming calling about their prospects and Elias will surely make some inquiries of his own.  The success of the rebuilding project seems to have outpaced Angelos’ readiness (or willingness) to start boosting payroll, yet there’s no easier path to greater revenues than a championship-level team.  A spending increase to even the $100MM mark would give Elias all the more flexibility to add what might only be some finishing touches on a World Series contender.

In conjunction with this post, Mark Polishuk held an Orioles-centric chat with MLBTR readers.  Click here to read the transcript.

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