Seth Lugo has declined a $7.5MM player option with the Padres, reports Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 (X link). He’s a free agent and will be permitted to commence negotiations with other teams on Monday.
This was one of the league’s easiest opt-out decisions. Lugo inked a two-year, $15MM guarantee last winter. A longtime reliever with the Mets, he prioritized finding a rotation job. Lugo sought to demonstrate he could hold up as a starter before getting back to the open market.
He did just that. The right-hander worked 146 2/3 innings across 26 starts, pitching to a 3.57 ERA. Lugo struck out a solid 23.2% of opposing hitters while keeping his walks to a tidy 6% clip. Now that he has established himself as a mid-rotation starter, he should find a much better guarantee than he had 12 months ago. Even a couple weeks from his 34th birthday, Lugo has a good case for a three-year pact.
The Padres could issue Lugo a $20.325MM qualifying offer. It’s questionable whether they’re willing to risk that kind of one-year salary in an offseason in which they’re expected to slice payroll. San Diego also faces the potential departures of Blake Snell, Michael Wacha and Nick Martinez (the latter two of whom have complicated option decisions in their contracts) from a rotation they’ll need to address over the coming months.
2yr/$22m to stay? Option in the 3rd year?
I’d do it…
I had 2/20 and wouldn’t mind the option year. All depends on the market. However,
I hope he remembers who gave him that chance to start again if the money is close.
Go 3/39 on Wacha and a lot of pitching problems are resolved. Yam or Montgomery at the TOR and rotation is good.
Might take the same 3/39 to keep Lugo…
Has Matt Carpenter opted out yet? 😉
Eovaldi had very similar #s in 2022 to Lugo’s 2023. Lugo’s were a bit better pretty much across board and he pitched nore and they are the sane age. Eovaldi ended 2/yrs $32M and mutual $20M option on 3rd year.
I’d be surprised if Lugo gets $30M or more for 2 seasons, but I think he’s likely getting more than $22M.
Seems reasonable, even 2/24
I don’t think his agent will think so. If he signs a 2 year deal I think he’s gonna get minimum of $28M. If any teams offer more years I’d assume they ll be able to drive AAV down some.
Shhhhh Tigers!! Trying to keep the price down over here!
>.<
!! Tigers, players read our posts ya know
He just saved them some money, although the Ostrich will claim he didn’t need to.
Did he start in college or the minors?? Because he could burn himself out thinking he’s a starting pitcher at age 33.
He has 641 IP in his MLB career. I’m sure he’s got plenty left in his arm.
He started 68 games in the Minors, so he’s got a platform at least.
If he stumbles as a starter, he knows how to quickly transition to a middle reliever to find himself and then stretch back into a rotation. It’s a valuable skillset imo.
That’s what I was thinking. If he fails as a starter, he likely reverts to being a Strahm-like pitcher. Even if you don’t get full value, I think you’ll get most of what you paid for.
High floor with a decent ceiling.
But its not a $16 million AAV skillset. Most relievers that are not the closer top out at $8 million or so. If he flames out as a starter then that is his real worth, right?
Strahm was on a 2 year $15 million deal. That seems reasonable for Lugo too. Maybe a little more. Just not $16 million. God I hope Minassian isn’t the one that picks him up for 3 years at $12-16 million AAV. That IS the kind of contract that Arte would approve though. Nothing long, but high AAV is ok.
More. Like a 36/3 plus mutual option year. His arm doesn’t have the mileage of a typical 33 y.o. starting pitcher.
@Gywnning
@YBC I don’t think Gywnning will get a notification for that.
Lugo & Heaney to BoSox. Boom.
Mets have Senga, Quintana, Lucchesi, Megill and/or Peterson. Buto also has a legit shot at cracking rotation.
I could see them signing one veteran SP but that’s about it. That would hedge against injury and provide decent depth.
Mets should bring Lugo back.
I never understood why they were so reluctant to use him as a starter when that’s what he clearly wanted. It’s not like it hasn’t been a need every season he was there.
deGrom, Wheeler, Harvey, Thor, Matz, Colon, Vargas, Stroman, Porcello.
When he was with Mets they had ton of young depth at SP that they wasted and vets like the last few listed who were around some of years he was there.
Wouldn’t it make sense for the Padres to just renegotiate a deal to keep him? They have a few days to exclusively negotiate with him and at his age and lack of history as a starter its not like he will get more than $12 million AAV or 3 years.
They just need to get the other half of that $100M loan the bank offered them, and just keep all their free agents. Easy stuff!
I wouldn’t say that. There are contracts giving out every year that most of us think are way over value.
Would be a good mid tier option for the Pirates to sign, other than the innings increase, a lot less risk than guys like Flaherty, Montas, Severino, etc.
I am trying to figure this out. He will be 34. This is the first time in his career he has thrown more than 101 innings. He was not a strike out pitcher. And people are saying he will get a 50% raise and multiple years? He pitched well enough, but what am I missing?
Lack of options on the market. Pitching is always in demand.
Do you want to pay top market price for guys like Snell Montgomery etc or do you want a 2-3 year deal with lower annual cost.
Some teams value the lesser commitment and lower price tag.
He was not a strike out pitcher. And people are saying he will get a 50% raise and multiple years? He pitched well enough, but what am I missing?
==================================
1-He is a strikeout pitcher, with a 8.6/9 IPs.
2-50% is not really meaningful with any SD contracts since they are written with AAV in mind.
3-You’re not missing anything, per se. It is just a matter of how much you want to pay an SP with a 1.8 bWAR in 2023. It looks sustainable to me.
8.6K/9 is about MLB average. That is why I said not a strikeout pitcher. He is not like his teammate Snell or the Angels’ Detmers who strike in excess of 1 per inning.
People on here saying $12 million AAV for 3 years for a 34 year old. That seems like a large amount for Lugo. He just seems like a back of the rotation starter to me at this point in his career. Stranger things have been known to happen than Lugo putting up 2-3 more seasons like he did in 2023 though, so who knows. .
That’s only what I think he’ll be signed for. Strahm didn’t have the track record of Lugo and it was his F.A. deal. The caveat also with Lugo is he’s been pitching with a partially-torn UCL since 2017 to further raise your skepticism.
3 year 54 mil from St. Louis coming up.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see the Mets try to get him back as a starter, they need 4/5 of a rotation again.