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Shota Imanaga Likely To Be Posted By Monday

By Steve Adams | November 22, 2023 at 10:03am CDT

The Yokohama BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball are planning to post left-hander Shota Imanaga for Major League teams sometime between now and Monday, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. While prior reporting had indicated that Imanaga might not be posted until fellow NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto had already signed, it instead appears that Imanaga will be posted about a week after Yamamoto. That creates some overlap in the two posting periods but also gives Imanaga at least a few days for teams that miss out on Yamamoto to explore the possibility of instead signing him.

While both Imanaga and Yamamoto are highly regarded, Imanaga is widely expected to sign the lesser contract in terms of both years and dollars. That’s due partially to the fact that Yamamoto is regarded as the superior pitcher, of course, but the primary reason for Yamamoto being projected to sign a deal more than twice as lucrative as Imanaga is the age gap between the two. Yamamoto just turned 25 in August; Imanaga turned 30 in September.

As such, Imanaga’s age is more in line with that of standard Major League free agents, who tend to reach the open market around 30-31 years of age. There are exceptions, but particularly among pitchers, a player reaching the market in his mid-to-late 20s is quite rare.

Although Imanaga doesn’t have the bonus allure of being an atypically young free agent, he nonetheless figures to command a weighty long-term deal himself. The southpaw’s 2023 season featured 148 innings of 2.80 ERA ball — his second straight sub-3.00 mark and his third in five years. (The two other seasons “only” saw Imanaga post marks of 3.08 and 3.23.) Imanaga fanned 29.5% of his opponents this past season against a superlative 3.8% walk rate.

Dating back to 2019, Imanaga boasts a 26.2% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate in addition to a cumulative 2.79 earned run average — including a no-hitter in the 2022 season. He isn’t necessarily overpowering in terms of velocity, though MLBTR contributor Dai Takegami Podziewski noted late in the year that he’d added some life to his heater and was averaging between 92-93 mph during the 2023 season. He pairs that heater with a splitter, curveball and cutter/slider hybrid, as noted in Brandon Tew’s breakdown of that 2022 no-hitter over at Sports Info Solutions.

Whenever Imanaga is posted, it will mark the start of a 45-day window for him to negotiate with all 30 MLB clubs. Any team that agrees to sign Imanaga will also be agreeing to pay a release fee to the BayStars — the size of which is dependent on the size of Imanaga’s contract. In addition to the guaranteed money owed to the pitcher himself, his new team will need to pay a release fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $85MM contract for the lefty, which would come with a $13.875MM release fee owed to the BayStars on top of the contract itself. Future club/player options and earnings unlocked via incentives/bonuses are also subject to that system (and, in this hypothetical instance, would come with a 15% fee owed to the Yokohama club).

To this point, Imanaga has been linked to several MLB clubs — most recently the Cubs but also the Dodgers and Red Sox. It stands to reason that virtually every mid- or large-market club with a need for pitching will have some degree of interest. Imanaga has been one of the steadiest performers in Japan for the better part of a half decade and has thus been heavily scouted by MLB teams for quite some time now. He’ll likely be on the radar for other bigger-spending teams like the Mets, Yankees, Cardinals, Giants, Angels and Blue Jays (to name a few) over the next six to seven weeks.

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31 Comments

  1. drasco036

    2 years ago

    Sounds like a guy the Cubs will be in on honestly. All fans Yamamoto, I’m no exception but I have a feeling this is more in the Cubs wheel house.
    Holding out hope Horton and Brown are the big arm, big strike out guys the rotation lacks in the near future.

    2
    Reply
    • Big Bomb

      2 years ago

      Agree, I think he’s got #2 potential. The K/BB numbers really stand out

      Reply
    • garyleet

      2 years ago

      Shopping the bargain basement is definitely in the Cubs’ wheelhouse. They need a true ace not another #3. The farm guys are still a big if, but if they do hit what’s wrong with having two aces?

      Reply
      • drasco036

        2 years ago

        I really wouldn’t call it basement at all. He’s a legitimate talent who could be a front line starter. This could be another Swanson style steal, produces similar results as Correa, Turner and Bogearts at a fraction of the years and cost.

        Reply
  2. Champ world champion Texas Rangers

    2 years ago

    This guy will be a solid 3/4 in a rotation 5 years 60 million.

    3
    Reply
    • Four4fore

      2 years ago

      Sounds like the new Cardinals ACE a #3 starter is better than 4 #5 starters currently under contract.

      2
      Reply
      • GO1962

        2 years ago

        The Cardinals could sign him and not have to give up a draft pick.

        1
        Reply
        • Four4fore

          2 years ago

          And Matsui.

          1
          Reply
  3. Seamaholic

    2 years ago

    Don’t know about y’all, but for me, a “cutter/slider hybrid” has to be known as a “slutter.” Otherwise, why are we here.

    25
    Reply
  4. OhioDodger

    2 years ago

    Dodgers should be all in on this guy.

    Reply
    • Dorothy_Mantooth

      2 years ago

      He’s the consolation prize to Yamamoto.

      Reply
      • scottn59c

        2 years ago

        Yamamoto or bust!

        Reply
  5. LordD99

    2 years ago

    Timed so he has at minimum one extra week to negotiate after Yamamoto signs.

    1
    Reply
  6. The Saber-toothed Superfife

    2 years ago

    The Tigers should go for all of them.
    The Tigers have no pitching on paper.

    1
    Reply
  7. SupremeZeus

    2 years ago

    Dollar store Yamamoto for the franchise that whiff on him and “tried really hard”. Cardinals all the way.

    1
    Reply
    • scottn59c

      2 years ago

      Gas station sushi

      Reply
  8. ThonolansGhost

    2 years ago

    I wouldn’t mind seeing the Tigers go after this guy.

    Reply
  9. Big Bomb

    2 years ago

    As a cubs fan I’d like a Shoto signing if they miss out on Yamamoto.

    His numbers in Japan have been better than Senga’s were and Senga had a great year

    Reply
  10. Dorothy_Mantooth

    2 years ago

    Dare one team, like Boston, sign both Yamamoto & Imanaga? Now that would be something!

    Reply
    • gammaraze

      2 years ago

      Rangers signing Yamamoto, Imanaga, AND Ohtani… Don’t worry, Ray Davis won’t miss the money 😉

      Reply
  11. Balbag77

    2 years ago

    The Yankees should bid on this guy over a $30M guy like Yamamoto. They need to get away from huge contracts other than what they have on the books. A lefty with a four pitch arsenal sounds like a no brainer to me

    1
    Reply
    • DonCarl97

      2 years ago

      Honestly you have two LHP in Rodón from whom I expect a bounce back year and Nestor Cortez, I don’t see the point on signing Imanaga, they’re gonna bet hard on Yamamoto, they have to.

      Reply
  12. DonCarl97

    2 years ago

    This is the guy Cardinals should’ve went for instead of Lynn and Gibson, Cards need to rebuild their rotation I would’ve went for either Lynn or Gibson if I wanted an innings eater but not for both def…
    Dodgers could use him for sure and the Padres as well.

    2
    Reply
    • Four4fore

      2 years ago

      Right either Lynn or Gibson is fine, both is like giving up.

      2
      Reply
      • DonCarl97

        2 years ago

        Definitely, especially because they aren’t coming cheap…
        Besides knowing that they need at least 1 or 2 frontline starters… or at least one Ace and a second good pitcher that can potentially turn into a good 2 starter

        1
        Reply
  13. ACK

    2 years ago

    The SD Padres sign Shota Imanaga to a 6 year $100 mill contract with 4 opt out options.

    Reply
    • PutPeteinthehall

      2 years ago

      Pay the bail to the Japanese club then let him opt out? No way

      1
      Reply
  14. Eatdust666

    2 years ago

    He will not come cheap, but he probably could be had for a contract similar to what the Mets gave Senga, even if not exactly like it.

    Reply
  15. LambchoP

    2 years ago

    Twins need a SP. Would rather have Yoshi, but not for that long of a contract that he’s likely going to get. Not to mention the Twins cutting payroll this year. Even though they just won their first playoff series in 347y239y years…

    Reply
  16. HankAaronDidGreenies

    2 years ago

    Shota is not a great name to have

    1
    Reply
  17. ATLbravos

    2 years ago

    would be a great pick up for the braves. they need a solid 3 guy in that rotation

    Reply

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