As the Winter Meetings approach, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Brewers facing big decisions:
Few teams in baseball are facing as wide an array of possible outcomes this offseason as the Brewers. After losing longtime manager Craig Counsell to the division rival Cubs and non-tendering injured ace Brandon Woodruff earlier this month, the club is facing major decisions on the futures of right-hander Corbin Burnes and shortstop Willy Adames, both of whom are slated to hit free agency after the 2024 season. In a recent poll of MLBTR readers nearly 78% of respondents suggested the club should move Burnes, who has spoken candidly about the lack of extension negotiations between the sides.
On the other hand, the club is the reigning NL Central champion and would likely have trouble fending off up-and-coming clubs like the Reds and Cubs next season if they were to lose both Burnes and Woodruff in the same offseason. As Milwaukee brass ponders whether to maximize the club’s odds in 2024 or build for the long term, the club is simultaneously discussing a precedent-setting pre-debut extension with top outfield prospect Jackson Chourio, a move that could extend the club’s window of control over a potentially elite talent while accelerating his path to the majors.
2. When will the trade market for starters kick into motion?
Burnes isn’t the only noteworthy ace-caliber arm who could be on the trade market this offseason. White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease, Rays righty Tyler Glasnow, and 2020 AL Cy Young award winner Shane Bieber have gotten plenty of buzz as likely trade candidates so far this offseason, with reports of interest from rival clubs ramping up in recent days. Could a team look to make an impact addition to their starting rotation ahead of the Winter Meetings, which begin on Sunday evening? The Braves, Dodgers, Cubs, and Reds are the clubs that have been most frequently connected to the front-of-the-rotation arms known to be available in trade, though plenty of teams would benefit from such an addition.
3. Reliever of the Year winners to be announced:
The winners of the league’s Reliever of the Year awards, named after Trevor Hoffman in the NL and Mariano Rivera in the AL, are set to be announced this evening at 5pm CT on MLB Network. The reigning winner of the award in the NL, Mets closer Edwin Diaz, missed the entire 2023 campaign due to injury. That leaves the door wide open for other top arms such as left-handed free agent Josh Hader (1.28 ERA), Brewers righty Devin Williams (1.53 ERA), and Pirates right-hander David Bednar (2.00 ERA) to claim the award this season. Meanwhile, the AL’s top crop of relief arms this year features reigning winner Emmanuel Clase (3.22 ERA), who lead the league with 44 saves this season for the Guardians. However, the likes of Orioles righty Felix Bautista (1.48 ERA) and Blue Jays right-hander Jordan Romano (2.90 ERA) posted stronger run-prevention numbers than Clase this season.
It’s a shame Felix Bautista got hurt or he’d have had a real shot at the Cy Young this year. Even with missing a month and pitching 11 fewer innings, he still had 46 more K’s than Clase and led AL relievers in WAR. He’d have my vote.
I logged in just to give this comment a thumbs up.
Total shame he got injured. Plus, I think we all like to see the top guys play. Clase also led in blown saves, so even though he led the league in saves, I think a healthy Bautista gets the nod.
If you look at how successful a pitcher was at converting save opportunities, Romano’s 90% (36/40) conversion rate was the best, followed by Bautista at 84.6% (33/39) and then Clase at 78.6% (44/56).
If it was an award for closer, then Romano probably deserves it as he was most efficient at converting saves.
It’s a reliever award though and looking at the broader numbers, Bautista was pretty clearly the best overall reliever. Clase is there for name recognition. His 3.22 ERA, opponents batting average of .242 (worst of any of the top relievers) and poor save conversion rate should have him comfortably behind Romano.
also a shockingly low k rate
Surprised the Twins Duran didn’t make the finalists. He’s got all the stats but saves, not used a traditional closer, these other guys have. Nothing against any of these finalists but he deserves a spot imo
Indeed. Identical IP from last year, WHIP jumped from .729 to 1.156
They should probably call it the Closer Award and keep it the Hoffman/Rivera awards. Then there should be a separate Relief Pitcher Award so set-up men who keep the game in check until they can bring in the closer. They could be judged primarily by Holds and ERA. Imagine going through your career playing a vital role and never getting any recognition except for a whopper go a salary.
CO – Agreed! And it cracks me up that Felix missed approx 6 weeks of the season and STILL pitched 10 more innings than Chris Martin, who had a pretty good season himself.
BTW – It will always be the Rolaids award to me.
You’re right. I’m a CLE fan, and I’m stunned Clase is even in the conversation with those 12 blown saves in ‘23. Hate to say it, but it seemed like more.
Avenger – I don’t put a tremendous amount of weight on reliever ERA because it can be so misleading.
Reliever comes into a game with a runner on first base and two outs, he gives up a run scoring double and doesn’t get charged any earned runs.
Reliever starts the 10th inning, promptly gives up 2 walks and a base hit to lose the game. He gets charged zero earned runs.
So many situations where a reliever pitches like garbage and yet doesn’t get charged any earned runs.
I’ll vote for Trevor May. Overcame personal issues, pitched very well, and retired – his final kiss off telling what a complete **** he thought of John Fisher.
Completely biased vote I agree….
FPG, you get Roland’s by using your Fingers.
Long shot a reliever wins the Cy Young. I remember in 2018 80+ innings pitched with a 9-2 record and 38 saves with an incredible 0.78ERA . I believe he didn’t even get a sniff.
Since he was so dominant before he got hurt, Bautista might get it anyway
Surprised the Bieber trade rumors doesn’t have an article on MLB Trade Rumors. Cleveland has gotten skunked on past trades when their Ace is at the top of their game. Kluber has arguably gotten the most (Clase), the Clevinger trade still has Cantillo to hope for, CC got them Brantley and Lee got them Carrasco (both injured when needed most in 16 WS), the Bauer trade was a complete dud.
The Yankees got some young pitching that the Brewers should look at with Chase Hampton and Drew Thorpe. They are a few years away, but Clarke Schmidt is solid, and Johny Brito and Randy Vasquez are all durable now.
I don’t think the brewers are overly eager to trade Mr Burnes. That being said I think a package like Schmidt, Thorpe, Warren gets it done e z.
Thorpe was a guy I was hoping the Brewers would’ve drafted.
this has to be Bautista in the AL. Clase yes lead the league in saves but that’s a result of
1. Felix missing time early and late
2. his team having another RP who also had staggering numbers (especially in first half)
3. better team with less save opps
can’t imagine the selection committee gives it back to Clase after he took a step backward this season.
Money all: The problem is, if a guy won it before, the media goes for the safe choice and votes for them again whether they deserve it or not. I think Bautista should win it and they’ll likely vote for Hader. He’s a great reliever who had another strong season, but will he be judged by past performances when he was virtually untouchable?
Take the votes out of the hands of those that watch the game and put in in the ones who actually play with or against the player and the results would be different.
The Brewers should just spend money to improve the club. And they should extend Burnes and probably Adames.
But if they aren’t going to do that they really should trade those guys rather than run it back with what they have.
But I wonder how ticket sales are going for the Brewers? If they trade everyone now other than Opening day and 6 Cubs home games why would people go? Do they hang on and trade players closer to Spring Training after some folks have bought the 4 game packs where you now get a 5th game free?
I think you’re seriously underestimating the fan base here. There are a lot of talented young kids coming up and that brings a lot of enthusiasm. Brewers fans know the small market operation and what that means to remaining competitive. We pretty much expect Burnes to be traded and we see the writing on the wall with Adames too. I wouldn’t be particularly surprised if we’ve already seen the ceiling for both of them already, so trading them now to bring in even more young, controllable talent is the smart move to stay in the NL central mix. I don’t think any of us wants to go the fire sale/tear down/rebuild route like Pittsburgh fans have to deal with perpetually.
“Led” the league; not “lead”…
I’m not the only one… thank goodness lol
Burnes is the only ace-caliber arm. Cease needed to take a couple steps forward two years ago to get there and never developed with the White Sox, the Rays are better off just paying Glasnow themselves since $25 mil for 120 career high innings is too steep of a price to net a return unless the Rays eat some and then have to replace those innings themselves, and unless Shane Bieber is working out with Driveline right now his 2024 will look like Kluber’s
“Ace” means different things on different clubs.
The teams mentioned don’t really have an ace, per se.
Supposed to read some of the teams mentioned but last edit didn’t take.
Cease DID develop with the White Sox. He had a better season in ’22 than ’23, but it would be hard to match finishing second in Cy Young voting. I think you’ll see him being more consistent once he plays for a major league team.
The Rays don’t want to pay Glasnow that’s why he’s going to be dealt. The return doesn’t matter they simply don’t want to pay that salary
My predictions based on what the pitcher can control.
American League:
1. Felix Bautista
kwERA: 1.15
GBkwERA: 1.17
2.. Jordan Romano
kwERA: 3.08
GBkwERA: 3.13
3. Emmanuel Clase
kwERA: 3.49
GBkwERA: 2.98
If, for some reason, the voters think that Bautista shouldn’t get it because he was injured for part of the year then it should go to Jordan Romano.
National League:
1. Devin Williams
kwERA: 2.34
GBkwERA: 2.21
2. Camilo Doval
kwERA: 2.80
GBkwERA: 2.50
3. David Bednar
kwERA: 2.84
GBkwERA: 2.86
It is still Felix Bautista wven with the injury.
He gets bonus points for entertainment value outside of his pitching results. His entrance theme song when entering games is epic; especially when seen in person at OPACY.
I have no clue as to why the Brewers are considering trading Burnes prior to the season starting. Reload rather than rebuild. You aren’t in the NL West or NL East where the heavyweights are.
The Cubs, Cards, Reds and Pirates aren’t better. You won the division by 8 games last year and have one of the best closers in MLB. I’d take Burnes and Peralta over any of the other teams top two starters in that division.
Upgrade the corner infield spots and win another division.
The payroll is modest for a team that had higher home attendance than the Texas Rangers, Baltimore Orioles, etc.
Stop acting like a small market team.
If things go sideways by the trade deadline next year, then move Burnes. The dude is an ace and you’ll get the prospects in return at that time.
There is no evidence the Brewers are wanting to sell. It’s speculation.
To the contrary the reporters that regularly meet with brewers management have stated they are performing due diligence and expect both Burnes and Adames in a Brewer’s uniform next season.
I feel like Ohtani recently won some recognition award, despite being injured.
Dbacks trade Druw Jones, Perdomo, McCarthy, Ryne Nelson, Tommy Troy and Fletcher
for
White Sox: Cease and Robert
Dbacks: Lawler, Perdomo, McCarthy, Nelson, and Walston
for
Blue Jays: Guerrero and Bichette
Dbacks: Jones, Perdomo, Nelson, and Cecconi
for
Rays: Glasnow and Josh Lowe
Who says no?
The non-Arizona side in very one of those offers
Blue jays say heck no!
White Sox might say yes
They all say no, especially Jays ans Sox
I think the Cardinals are way and beyond the most talked about team on the trade market for the pitchers mentioned.
The Cardinals have signed 3 starters already. I dont think they will be involved in much moving forward. I thought Matz could be dealt but that was before the Gray contract details were announced. The only thing the Cardinals need now is pen help.
I think it depends on how fast the trade market moves, which I assume won’t really pick up until Yamamoto is signed.
A TON of teams need pitching and if you believe Mozeliak (I know, big if), Lynn and Gibson were kind of opportunistic signings in that they reached out to the team. I would assume the Cards FO has been exploring the trade market for pitchers. And would still be open to adding an arm via trade if they can move Matz’s contract, which may be possible after the remaining big FAs are off the board and pitching-needy teams haven’t landed anyone.
Of course the Cards will then be competing with all those teams to make a trade for a Glasnow or a Cease or whatever, so I don’t know if they’d be willing to meet the asking price.
I just don’t see it. Glasnow isn’t happening. Cease will cost a ton in talent to trade. The Cardinals have 3 new starters that’s more than enough. The only reason I thought trading Matz made sense was for salary relief and the Gray contract being backloaded fixes that. Carlson and ONeill for a couple relievers and call it a day is what it looks like to me.
I thought for sure I would see Tigers relief pitcher Tyler Holton in reliever of the year list, he was absolutely lights out for the Tigers.
****led the league. past tense…. lead is current or now…
Dear Milwaukee, Marco Lucriano, and a couple young pitchers or hitters for Admes and Burns