Right-hander Sonny Gray is reportedly in agreement with the Cardinals on a three-year, $75MM deal. Per a report from Mark Sheldon of MLB.com, the Reds pursued Gray and were “close” before Gray agreed with the Cards instead. Sheldon adds that the Reds are interested in righty Tyler Glasnow of the Rays, who is thought to be on the trading block.
Pitching is in an obvious target area for the Reds this winter, given that they have a surplus of position players. They have enough choices for their lineup that they declined their club option on franchise icon Joey Votto, with president of baseball operations Nick Krall explaining that the club didn’t have the necessary playing time for him. Jonathan India might be in a similar boat, despite having a reputation as a strong clubhouse presence and having won Rookie of the Year back in 2021. Reports have suggested a trade is likely, though Krall has pushed back on that.
Regardless of whether India is available or not, the pitching staff is clearly the place for the club to dedicate some resources, something that Krall has admitted. The talented lineup almost vaulted the Reds into the 2023 postseason, but they ultimately came up just short while deploying an injury-marred and insufficient pitching staff. The club’s hurlers had a collective 4.83 earned run average on the year, which placed them ahead of just five teams in the league. The rotation was a particular problem, as the starters posted a combined 5.43 ERA that was better than just the Athletics and Rockies.
Health was a significant factor there, with many of their young hurlers hitting the injured list. Lefty Nick Lodolo had a strong debut in 2022 but was limited to just seven starts this past year due to a stress reaction in his left tibia. Hunter Greene missed a couple of months due to hip pain and posted a 4.82 ERA in his 22 starts. Graham Ashcraft went to the IL both due to a left calf contusion and a right big toe stress reaction, being limited to 26 starts with a 4.76 ERA.
If all three of them are healthy next year, then that gives the club a solid young core. Lefty Andrew Abbott and Brandon Williamson should be in the mix after decent rookie seasons in 2023, with Abbott having recorded an ERA of 3.87 in 21 starts while Williamson was at 4.46 in his 23 outings. But Abbott’s 79.9% strand rate was a bit on the high side, leading his 4.20 FIP and 4.33 SIERA to be a bit skeptical of his ERA, whereas Williamson posted his passable results despite a subpar 20% strikeout rate.
There’s clearly lots of talent in that rotation mix but each guy is fairly inexperienced. In 2023, most of them were either injured or putting up tepid results or both. Bolstering this group with an established arm could raise the ceiling while also improving the depth, reducing the chances of them being undercut by injuries yet again in 2024.
It seems they have some funds available for such a pursuit, based on this report. While we don’t have any details on what kind of numbers the Reds were putting in front of Gray or if an official offer was made, the Cards seem to have sealed the deal at $25MM per season. The Reds could have offered a higher average annual value on two years or perhaps offered a four-year deal with a lower AAV, but the fact that they seemed to be in the running suggests that they had some ability to add a contract around that size.
That tracks with the interest in Glasnow as well, since he has one year left on his contract with that exact figure of $25MM. That’s a bargain for a pitcher of Glasnow’s quality, as he has a 3.03 ERA over the last five years, striking out 35% of batters while walking just 7.7% and keeping the ball on the ground at a 47.2% rate. He wouldn’t really help the injury instability in Cincinnati since he just returned from Tommy John surgery that wiped out much of his 2022. The 120 innings he threw in 2023 are actually a career high, as he’s dealt with various other ailments throughout his career. But he would immediately jump to the top of the rotation in Cincy if they were able to acquire him. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently took a look at 12 teams that made sense for Glasnow, with the Reds being one of them.
Whether they can actually get him is another question. The Rays have every intention of continuing to compete and aren’t rebuilding. The only reason Glasnow is considered available is because of his contract and the constant payroll concerns of the Rays. Sheldon adds that the club would be looking for an MLB-ready starter in return.
That makes sense when considering things from the Tampa perspective. In the 2023 season, each of Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen underwent a significant elbow surgery and those three are set to miss most or all of the upcoming campaign. That leaves them with Glasnow, Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale in their rotation. Shane Baz should be in the mix but he just missed all of 2023 recovering from his own Tommy John surgery. Taj Bradley had a fairly uninspiring rookie campaign. Zack Littell could play a role but he was just recently moved from the bullpen to the rotation.
There’s plenty of uncertainty there and that’s especially true if Glasnow is removed from the equation. If the Reds were to strike on Glasnow, they would probably have to include one of their own young starters, allowing the Rays to save money but keep their rotation in competitive condition. After the Reds missed the playoffs, Krall spoke to reporters about the club’s lack of activity at last year’s deadline. “I don’t have any regrets not doing anything,” he said. “I still wouldn’t have given up players on our roster for shorter-term assets.”
Glasnow only has one year remaining on his deal, so he would be a short-term asset. Though by acquiring Glasnow in the offseason as opposed to the deadline, there would at least be the chance to recoup a draft pick later by extending the qualifying offer at the end of the 2024 campaign. Perhaps that makes Krall more willing to accept the acquisition cost of getting a short-term asset but it’s also something that the Rays will be factoring into their asking price.
Time will tell whether a Glasnow deal can come together, but even if it doesn’t, it seems the Reds have at least some willingness to add a sizeable contract to their books as a means of upgrading their rotation. Roster Resource estimates their payroll at just $52MM for 2024, as of today. They were at $83MM in 2023 and have been as high as $127MM in the past, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Even if they add a $25MM contract, they would only be at $77MM, presumably leaving more room for bullpen/bench additions as they look to take another step forward next year.
Reds should have signed Sonny, he pitched for them before and knows how to pitch in such a hitter-friendly ballpark.
*knew. He’s older now and getting this salary based off of a career year. As a reds fan – I’m glad he’s a cardinal
He got it based off his durability and production that has actually been remarkably consistent as he has gotten older. Sad that Reds fans have unfortunately had to tell themselves things like “they overpaid” or knock Sonny to take their mind off the fact they are living in the dark ages of Reds baseball.
Sonny would’ve been perfect in Cincinnati but I am sure they were outbid by someone more savvy and serious about winning. Its weird seeing a few Reds fans actually buy what the front office is selling when they have continued to show them what they are.
No clue how to build a team and basically a notch above the Oakland As. They nearly doubled their attendance projections last year with a payroll that wouldve been average 20 years ago. The two BACKUP catchers were just behind Votto and Griffey Jr in being the highest paid on the team.
I’m not buying what ownership selling at all. They are just terrible at free agent signings and spending money. Also if it came down to st Louis or cincy and the money was the same – most players, including Gray, will choose St. Louis. There’s a long line of free agents who have shunned the reds in recent years. And that goes for many small markets- who would want to play in Detroit ?!? Or Pittsburgh. Good Players have better options.
I want to see the reds extend more players and sign mostly 1 year free agents for fillers. I do hope they get giolito and i prefer him to gray, especially over the next 3 seasons.
They were the best team in baseball in 2012, bumped by the WS champs. Only 5 starters all season, prime Votto, Chapman and many other top performers, very well rounded. That was a while ago now. Most of the headline moves non-Reds fans would be aware of have worked out well and why Reds are in very good position for 24′. They got the best of Luis Castillo, Sonny Grey and a number of others and flipped them for prospects who are why they are now poised.
Reds traded sonny because of money and payroll just like about year. Big Bob is all about the money. It had nothing to do with giving up on sonny.
Or:
1-Gray was kind of mediocre in 2021.
2-The Reds stunk in 2022. They were playing the long game.
The Reds are going for it!!!
Sheldon is basically the Reds mouthpiece, so take anything he says with a grain of salt.
As a Cubs fan, I will find it very interesting to see if it’s the Reds, Cardinals or D-backs who will be the first team to trade from their young surplus MLB ready talent – to secure a decent, young and controllable starter. My money is on either the Reds or D-backs – because the front office of the Cards seems to be a mess. Willson Contreras.says hello.
Don’t forget Baltimore as well. They probably have the most high end prospect currency of all teams in MLB.
Yeah Cards seem to be a mess. They’ve only signed 3 quality SPs at approx $48M for 2024. And it’s still only November.
The question is more about whether the $48M was well-spent. Based on the BR projections, the Cards projected ERA from their rotation ranks them between #16-17.
Their BP ranked #22 in ERA last year.
Their offense ranked #21 in RS.
They still have Wilson as their catcher, so until they get another catcher those Pitchers will hate pitching to him.
Is it your money? Then why do you care? They have secured the players my friend. If they get hurt at least they went for it. Costs you nothing.
That’s what Ivan Herrera is for. Young catcher who has nothing left to prove in the minors. Looks good behind the plate and can swing the bat.
I’ll take that bet! the Reds have the absolute worst owner in Baseball. Well, maybe the second worst (my apologies to John Fisher).
You forgot about Bob Nutting. Absolute cheapest owner of Pirates.
Exactly, the Reds always spread these rumors how they are always in on top free agents, yet they will only end up signing a Mike Minor type at the end of Spring Training.
or a Mike Moosuxass
DBacks should open their wallets and sign Imanaga and trade perhaps Jake McCarthy, Blaze Alexander, and one of the Nelsons on their squad for Glasnow.
I’d think the Rays would want Drey Jameson over Ryne Nelson.
I would agree, but isn’t he out with TJ surgery?
Forgot about Jameson’s TJ. Complicates that. I just don’t think Nelson is very good. I think eventually you’re moving him to the bullpen. Rays fix all different types though so if the D’Backs have a couple arms that they’re interested in—might just happen.
They’ve been known to grab guys who aren’t as highly regarded and turn them around. Jeffrey Springs & Drew Rasmussen come to mind recently.
I also have Imanaga going to the Dbacks, he seems like a good fit there
Glasnow isn’t the pitcher he once was. I wouldn’t give up too much for him…
It’s not that big of a problem. They were without Greene and Lodolo. Getting them back changes everything!
The experience that Abbott, Graham and Williamson got in 2023 should help in 2024 also. I’m ok if they stay pat and or if they add a mid rotation pitcher via free agency. Wacha could work.
Lots of faith for two young arms coming off season ending injuries with a history of injuries. Sonny was perfect but the Reds weren’t serious.
Well, at least that’s a little more encouraging, although I think topping the dirty birds offer (if he was given the chance) would have been better than giving up prospects.
@steveadams @markpolish @timdierkes when’s the leaderboard coming out?
Maybe the reds shouldn’t have given up on Sonny gray a few years ago. Maybe next time they’ll learn
Maybe the reds shouldn’t have given up on Sonny gray a few years ago.
===========================
I think the trades have worked out pretty well overall, maybe extremely well overall.
Yeah, Chase Petty was mowing down A and AA guys while Gray was a Cy Young finalist. I’d much rather have the guy 2 years away than one of the best pitchers in baseball ♂️
Joeshmoe excellent point!
your hired!
YOU ARE…LOL;)
Do you think the Reds would’ve kept Sonny Gray past the trade deadline of 2022? You guys were horrendous. I can almost guarantee you he would’ve been on the move then. I think the only argument you have is that you would’ve liked another prospect instead of Petty?
Amen.
He’s not better and he’s kind of a trash bag
How about the one for Sonny? For the high school pitcher who is still yrs away and a lottery ticket? That one. They traded away a guy who just missed being the Cy Young in the AL. Keep drinking the koolaid.
With both getting around 25 million next year I doubt the Reds are all THAT interested.
Enjoy the old folks team, Sonny. Also, enjoy finishing below the Reds the next 3 seasons.
Glasnow to the Reds, Jonathan India, and a third team trade. Rays eat some cash to get better return prospects.
I like the cut of your jib.
Why? India ain’t worth much and the Rays don’t want him. Besides, Gray just got 25M so how much is Glasnow really overpaid?
15 Million
Glasnow isn’t overpaid, that’s why there’s trade value. The shorter the contract, the higher the AAV. Gray is on a 3 year $75MM deal, while Glasnow is on a 1 year $25MM deal (and top pitchers on short term deals get $40MM AAV). Glasnow is also a better pitcher than Gray. Throw in the QO draft pick and Glasnow has about $15MM – $20MM surplus value.
I like your thinking of bringing a 3rd team…. It’s one of the few times in history but the Reds probably don’t even need the Rays to pitch in any dollars:)…
How bout india and Meade to sea. Miller to rays and Glasnow to reds ??
The Reds need an ace. They have some talent to trade. I don’t know if Glasnow and his 25 million dollar salary is the best fit. Could they get Cease or Bieber? That I think makes more sense. They need an ace. Maybe not long term Greene could be that guu eventually but he’s not that guy yet.
Trevor Bauer would be cheaper than either and Trevor Bauer is better than both.
That ain’t happening, ESPECIALLY in Cincinnati.
but it should!
Why not? Micheal Jackson is still played on the radio.
Why not?
The Reds window is just beginning to creak open, thus a one-year rental such as Glasnow doesn’t jive as the ideal motion.
It’s almost certainly a statement made in vain, but Yamamoto would be quite the splash here. His youth fits with their trajectory, and the international boost he’d provide would be a welcome boon in Cinci.
Financial limitations notwithstanding, they have the payroll space.
The Reds window is two years. They will play the Rookies as long as they are making league minimum. Once Elly, Steer, Friedle etc. reach arbitration, the next rebuild will commence.
Baseball, makes sense to everyone but the front office. I agree he fits and he is a young veteran who knows how to pitch. But they won’t do what it takes to land him.
Dam! I had the Reds getting Gray in the contest. Onto the next
Never bet on the Reds to spend money.
unless it is OFer at the dead line or for a washed up OFer..thats a bust that you dump mid season.
The Rays seem desperate to cut salaries. Trading Glasnow for India cuts roughly $20 million and gives them a replacement 2b, allowing them to further reduce payroll.
The Reds have a relatively inexpensive arbitration class and just $16 million in guaranteed contracts for 2024. While this would be relatively uncharacteristic move for Nick Krall, the substantial salary relief should allow the Reds to get a couple of mid-tier prospects thrown in.
Glasnow is potentially an enormous upgrade to Cincinnati’s rotation and way to restock the farm. If things don’t work out, he’s gone in ’25. This is a calculated risk worth taking, provided Tampa is willing to sweeten the deal with prospects.
Tampa is not sweetening the deal with prospects. Jonathan India is not that valuable. To the Rays—he has almost no value because they have about 5 options to play 2B/3B that are or have the potential to be as good or better than India.
& they’re all cheaper next season expect for Brandon Lowe. Who is marginally more expensive.
Franco is on administrative leave indefinitely, Taylor Walls still hasn’t hit since being promoted and Basabe, Caminero and Aranda are unproven. The infield depth is much weaker than it looks.
Lining up a replacement for Lowe allows the Rays to unlock $25 to $30 million in savings between him and Glasnow.
Personally, I think Tampa is valuing a low payroll above all else. Jonathan India is hardly overpriced at $4 to $5 million,
There’s a surprising list of former Rays offensive prospects (Brujan, Bauers, Walls, Solar, Lowe) who failed to develop, or only did so after leaving.
The Rays excel at trading for undervalued players, but struggle somewhat with developing their own prospects. Houston and Atlanta had the two weakest farm systems heading into 2023 and both teams got far more mileage out of their rookies than Tampa.
I would not be sanguine about relying on a large group of green position players if I were Tampa.
Jonathan India does not play SS. Franco’s absence makes no difference for him. Lowe only makes a bit more than India this year.
Lowe-2B
Paredes-3B.
That leaves Caminenero, Aranda, and Mead as rovers. Walls/Basabe at SS. Carson Williams could factor in too.
They’re good without India.
Dank – While that may all be true (not saying it is of course), it doesn’t explain why the Rays would want a player who has hit below 100 wRC+ in 2 of his 3 years and has graded negatively in the field every year.
@dankyank The problem w/ Glass to the Reds is that he doesn’t pitch enough to really move the needle, and he eats $25m of payroll that can be better spent elsewhere. He also doesn’t have any upside at $25m unless you can somehow save him for the stretch run then postseason starts—but teams never really do that.
—-Mid-tier prospects? That’s a little too vague to address seriously, but to get Glasnow with no salary relief a team would have to trade something like a 50 FV hitting prospect, an overpay in dollar value, but elite starting pitchers are rare enough to warrant it. How much more than a 50 FV prospect is India worth, if he is, since he’s starting to get expensive and is two years removed from his lone, good year? Not much, and not a couple of mid-tier prospects.
The Reds have no business shopping in the luxury aisle for 90 innings of great pitching that will add a couple of wins during the regular season, not for $25m, and not if they have to deal a moderately useful player like India (just 0.7 rWAR per 650 PA in 2022-2023, so there’s that) for the privilege, while the Rays have no business trading one of the best starters in the game (albeit a half-timer) for an ordinary lump like India who isn’t even a reliable starting position player at this point..
jack
Why is Jonathan India even worth a 50FV prospect? He’s been a below average defender and slightly below league average hitter for 2 years. His hit data doesn’t suggest that he’s been particularly unlucky to do so while hitting in one of the friendliest home parks in the league.
I think that is an overpay for him.
Indias grades will be all over the place from franchise to franchise and scout to scout. The “what have u done for me lately” crowd will freak and the “fix it” crowd will drool while teams scared of his injury history will stay away. It only takes 1 buyer though
Jack – All of Glasnow’s injuries prior to 2023 were arm related (arm fatigue, elbow strain, etc) that the Rays asked him to “rehab” by resting the arm so that he would be available for the post-season. That merely delayed the inevitable, and in 2021 he underwent TJS. Last year was his first year back from TJS and he pitched 120 IP, the most of his career (and all that he would be allowed in his first year back from TJS). There is no reason to think he can’t pitch 175 IP in 2024. Just because he hasn’t done it, doesn’t mean he won’t do it. Had he had TJS in 2019 or 2020 like he should have, we probably wouldn’t even be having a discussion of “injury prone Glasnow”.. Now, you may think I’m a dumb Rays homer for thinking Glas’ injury woes are behind him, but I’m pretty sure that any team trading for him this year will be thinking like me and not believing they are trading for 100 IP in 2024. Believe what you want, but Glasnow the 2024 Cy Young Winner is a real possibility.
As far as trades, a Petty/Phillips plus Schoenwetter for Glasnow (no cash) trade makes sense.
Dank – The Rays don’t want India. They have B.Lowe, I.Paredes, J.Caminero, C.Mead, O.Basabe, and several others who can play 2B. Most of those players have a much better bat than India and they all play better defense. India is awful in the field. The Rays aren’t trading Glasnow for India (and even if they wanted India, his trade value is a lot lower than Glasnow’s, and the Reds would have to include 1-2 others).
Gray at the top of the rotation, Gibson and Lynn flesh out the back end… that’s a combined 450 innings of (very) roughly average MLB pitching for 2024—with some upside—with only Gray on board for more than one year.
The Cardinals are still smart. This is what the Mets should have done (plus someone like Severino) assuming they’re punting 2024 (which they are). Yamamoto would be preferable to Gray, but YY isn’t signing with the Mets, who are all the way back to where they were when they had to throw a ridiculous $43m AAV at Scherzer to get him to sign after Cohen’s disastrous first year.
Good work, Moze.
Glasnow, Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft could potentially be one of the best rotations in the National League.
The concern with Glasnow, of course, is the injuries.
And what about Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo? It’s not like they are towers of strength. Both spend more time on the IL than off.
Dont go stating facts Bob. That would confuse him.
I think reds move lodolo to pen. Him and Diaz make a nasty back end !
This makes sense for the Reds..
It gives Green, Lodolo & Ashcraft another year to transition into Veteran roles & Abbott another year of seasoning…
It also gives a bridge for the younger guys (Lowder & Petty) to develop…
I’d probably look to bring in a 3rd team so the Reds can deal from their abundance of position players but the Rays can still get the MLB ready pitching they’re seeking in return…
Let’s just fast forward to the end of this saga when it doesn’t happen, and Krall explains to the media that in the end the cost in prospects AND Glasnow’s $25M salary just didn’t fit into the Reds’ philosophy or budget. The end.
Fast forward to the excuses at the end of the off-season, because they will be the same ones. But they’ll still have 12 shortstops in the system!
Let’s also fast forward to the part where Krall says “Not signing key free agents, will allow the Reds the flexibility to add talent at next years trading deadline”
Like when they said all those shortstops would be assets to go get what they need when criticized for that?
Krall has done a very good job in trades over the last couple years, but few teams come out on top making deals with the Rays.
I’d pass on Glasnow. Sign maybe Lorenzen and take a 2 year flyer on Mahle.
They have done well in one trade. The rest the jury is out. Traded 2 Cy Young finalists for these minor leaguers so lets see what happens. As far as big league production goes, they have lost those trades by MILES.
The Reds are obviously in a much better position now than if they hadn’t made those trades. Of all the players they traded, the only one who’d still be under team control is Eugenio Suarez and he’d now be taking up payroll space and blocking younger players.
I honestly don’t think the Reds would ask the Rays to eat any salary & they don’t need to…. I do think the Reds would prefer to deal from their abundance of infield assets so it may take a 3rd team to get a deal done if the Rays are looking for MLB ready pitching….
Marlins would make sense to get involved…
Reds get Glasnow & his whole salary
Marlins get Edwin Arroyo (top 100 prospect) & Johnathan India plus a mid level Rays prospect…
Rays get Edward Cabrera (who they’ll no doubt turn into a Cy Young winner:)….
The Reds’ payroll is sitting about $30M below last year’s payroll, and they were still rebuilding last offseason.. They can easily afford to take on Glasnow’s full salary to reduce the prospect cost.
Plus, if Glasnow stays heathy and rejects a QO after the season, he’d net the Reds an early-round compensatory pick. In that sense Glasnow has more value to the Reds (or Rays) than to a big market team.
The Reds are not throwing in a top 100 prospect for 1 year of extremely injury prone Glasnow. That’s just nuts and an extreme over pay to pay 25 million for about 15 starts a season for 1 season.
No way arroyo is traded in that deal. His bat is developing and he has elite defense. Reds won’t be coming off their top 9 prospects. Way to much upside for 1 year of Glasnow
@Bobcastelliniscat Good point, they definitely have injury concerns, too.
I’m hoping Lodolo will be good to go moving forward since his 2023 issue was a leg injury, not anything related to his arm.