Right-hander Sonny Gray is reportedly in agreement with the Cardinals on a three-year, $75MM deal. Per a report from Mark Sheldon of MLB.com, the Reds pursued Gray and were “close” before Gray agreed with the Cards instead. Sheldon adds that the Reds are interested in righty Tyler Glasnow of the Rays, who is thought to be on the trading block.
Pitching is in an obvious target area for the Reds this winter, given that they have a surplus of position players. They have enough choices for their lineup that they declined their club option on franchise icon Joey Votto, with president of baseball operations Nick Krall explaining that the club didn’t have the necessary playing time for him. Jonathan India might be in a similar boat, despite having a reputation as a strong clubhouse presence and having won Rookie of the Year back in 2021. Reports have suggested a trade is likely, though Krall has pushed back on that.
Regardless of whether India is available or not, the pitching staff is clearly the place for the club to dedicate some resources, something that Krall has admitted. The talented lineup almost vaulted the Reds into the 2023 postseason, but they ultimately came up just short while deploying an injury-marred and insufficient pitching staff. The club’s hurlers had a collective 4.83 earned run average on the year, which placed them ahead of just five teams in the league. The rotation was a particular problem, as the starters posted a combined 5.43 ERA that was better than just the Athletics and Rockies.
Health was a significant factor there, with many of their young hurlers hitting the injured list. Lefty Nick Lodolo had a strong debut in 2022 but was limited to just seven starts this past year due to a stress reaction in his left tibia. Hunter Greene missed a couple of months due to hip pain and posted a 4.82 ERA in his 22 starts. Graham Ashcraft went to the IL both due to a left calf contusion and a right big toe stress reaction, being limited to 26 starts with a 4.76 ERA.
If all three of them are healthy next year, then that gives the club a solid young core. Lefty Andrew Abbott and Brandon Williamson should be in the mix after decent rookie seasons in 2023, with Abbott having recorded an ERA of 3.87 in 21 starts while Williamson was at 4.46 in his 23 outings. But Abbott’s 79.9% strand rate was a bit on the high side, leading his 4.20 FIP and 4.33 SIERA to be a bit skeptical of his ERA, whereas Williamson posted his passable results despite a subpar 20% strikeout rate.
There’s clearly lots of talent in that rotation mix but each guy is fairly inexperienced. In 2023, most of them were either injured or putting up tepid results or both. Bolstering this group with an established arm could raise the ceiling while also improving the depth, reducing the chances of them being undercut by injuries yet again in 2024.
It seems they have some funds available for such a pursuit, based on this report. While we don’t have any details on what kind of numbers the Reds were putting in front of Gray or if an official offer was made, the Cards seem to have sealed the deal at $25MM per season. The Reds could have offered a higher average annual value on two years or perhaps offered a four-year deal with a lower AAV, but the fact that they seemed to be in the running suggests that they had some ability to add a contract around that size.
That tracks with the interest in Glasnow as well, since he has one year left on his contract with that exact figure of $25MM. That’s a bargain for a pitcher of Glasnow’s quality, as he has a 3.03 ERA over the last five years, striking out 35% of batters while walking just 7.7% and keeping the ball on the ground at a 47.2% rate. He wouldn’t really help the injury instability in Cincinnati since he just returned from Tommy John surgery that wiped out much of his 2022. The 120 innings he threw in 2023 are actually a career high, as he’s dealt with various other ailments throughout his career. But he would immediately jump to the top of the rotation in Cincy if they were able to acquire him. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently took a look at 12 teams that made sense for Glasnow, with the Reds being one of them.
Whether they can actually get him is another question. The Rays have every intention of continuing to compete and aren’t rebuilding. The only reason Glasnow is considered available is because of his contract and the constant payroll concerns of the Rays. Sheldon adds that the club would be looking for an MLB-ready starter in return.
That makes sense when considering things from the Tampa perspective. In the 2023 season, each of Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen underwent a significant elbow surgery and those three are set to miss most or all of the upcoming campaign. That leaves them with Glasnow, Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale in their rotation. Shane Baz should be in the mix but he just missed all of 2023 recovering from his own Tommy John surgery. Taj Bradley had a fairly uninspiring rookie campaign. Zack Littell could play a role but he was just recently moved from the bullpen to the rotation.
There’s plenty of uncertainty there and that’s especially true if Glasnow is removed from the equation. If the Reds were to strike on Glasnow, they would probably have to include one of their own young starters, allowing the Rays to save money but keep their rotation in competitive condition. After the Reds missed the playoffs, Krall spoke to reporters about the club’s lack of activity at last year’s deadline. “I don’t have any regrets not doing anything,” he said. “I still wouldn’t have given up players on our roster for shorter-term assets.”
Glasnow only has one year remaining on his deal, so he would be a short-term asset. Though by acquiring Glasnow in the offseason as opposed to the deadline, there would at least be the chance to recoup a draft pick later by extending the qualifying offer at the end of the 2024 campaign. Perhaps that makes Krall more willing to accept the acquisition cost of getting a short-term asset but it’s also something that the Rays will be factoring into their asking price.
Time will tell whether a Glasnow deal can come together, but even if it doesn’t, it seems the Reds have at least some willingness to add a sizeable contract to their books as a means of upgrading their rotation. Roster Resource estimates their payroll at just $52MM for 2024, as of today. They were at $83MM in 2023 and have been as high as $127MM in the past, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Even if they add a $25MM contract, they would only be at $77MM, presumably leaving more room for bullpen/bench additions as they look to take another step forward next year.
acoss13
Reds should have signed Sonny, he pitched for them before and knows how to pitch in such a hitter-friendly ballpark.
Big whiffa
*knew. He’s older now and getting this salary based off of a career year. As a reds fan – I’m glad he’s a cardinal
Franklin Nitty
He got it based off his durability and production that has actually been remarkably consistent as he has gotten older. Sad that Reds fans have unfortunately had to tell themselves things like “they overpaid” or knock Sonny to take their mind off the fact they are living in the dark ages of Reds baseball.
Sonny would’ve been perfect in Cincinnati but I am sure they were outbid by someone more savvy and serious about winning. Its weird seeing a few Reds fans actually buy what the front office is selling when they have continued to show them what they are.
No clue how to build a team and basically a notch above the Oakland As. They nearly doubled their attendance projections last year with a payroll that wouldve been average 20 years ago. The two BACKUP catchers were just behind Votto and Griffey Jr in being the highest paid on the team.
Big whiffa
I’m not buying what ownership selling at all. They are just terrible at free agent signings and spending money. Also if it came down to st Louis or cincy and the money was the same – most players, including Gray, will choose St. Louis. There’s a long line of free agents who have shunned the reds in recent years. And that goes for many small markets- who would want to play in Detroit ?!? Or Pittsburgh. Good Players have better options.
I want to see the reds extend more players and sign mostly 1 year free agents for fillers. I do hope they get giolito and i prefer him to gray, especially over the next 3 seasons.
Jjjj
They were the best team in baseball in 2012, bumped by the WS champs. Only 5 starters all season, prime Votto, Chapman and many other top performers, very well rounded. That was a while ago now. Most of the headline moves non-Reds fans would be aware of have worked out well and why Reds are in very good position for 24′. They got the best of Luis Castillo, Sonny Grey and a number of others and flipped them for prospects who are why they are now poised.
Who else
Reds traded sonny because of money and payroll just like about year. Big Bob is all about the money. It had nothing to do with giving up on sonny.
JoeBrady
Or:
1-Gray was kind of mediocre in 2021.
2-The Reds stunk in 2022. They were playing the long game.
Captain-Judge99
The Reds are going for it!!!
This one belongs to the Reds
Sheldon is basically the Reds mouthpiece, so take anything he says with a grain of salt.
Dogbone
As a Cubs fan, I will find it very interesting to see if it’s the Reds, Cardinals or D-backs who will be the first team to trade from their young surplus MLB ready talent – to secure a decent, young and controllable starter. My money is on either the Reds or D-backs – because the front office of the Cards seems to be a mess. Willson Contreras.says hello.
Dorothy_Mantooth
Don’t forget Baltimore as well. They probably have the most high end prospect currency of all teams in MLB.
1979andcounting
Yeah Cards seem to be a mess. They’ve only signed 3 quality SPs at approx $48M for 2024. And it’s still only November.
JoeBrady
The question is more about whether the $48M was well-spent. Based on the BR projections, the Cards projected ERA from their rotation ranks them between #16-17.
Their BP ranked #22 in ERA last year.
Their offense ranked #21 in RS.
Jake1972
They still have Wilson as their catcher, so until they get another catcher those Pitchers will hate pitching to him.
Franklin Nitty
Is it your money? Then why do you care? They have secured the players my friend. If they get hurt at least they went for it. Costs you nothing.
barkinghumans77
That’s what Ivan Herrera is for. Young catcher who has nothing left to prove in the minors. Looks good behind the plate and can swing the bat.
Bobcastelliniscat
I’ll take that bet! the Reds have the absolute worst owner in Baseball. Well, maybe the second worst (my apologies to John Fisher).
1979andcounting
You forgot about Bob Nutting. Absolute cheapest owner of Pirates.
Bobcastelliniscat
Exactly, the Reds always spread these rumors how they are always in on top free agents, yet they will only end up signing a Mike Minor type at the end of Spring Training.
Fire Krall
or a Mike Moosuxass
drdback
DBacks should open their wallets and sign Imanaga and trade perhaps Jake McCarthy, Blaze Alexander, and one of the Nelsons on their squad for Glasnow.
BrianStrowman9
I’d think the Rays would want Drey Jameson over Ryne Nelson.
drdback
I would agree, but isn’t he out with TJ surgery?
BrianStrowman9
Forgot about Jameson’s TJ. Complicates that. I just don’t think Nelson is very good. I think eventually you’re moving him to the bullpen. Rays fix all different types though so if the D’Backs have a couple arms that they’re interested in—might just happen.
They’ve been known to grab guys who aren’t as highly regarded and turn them around. Jeffrey Springs & Drew Rasmussen come to mind recently.
swagsuperawesomeepiccoolman123
I also have Imanaga going to the Dbacks, he seems like a good fit there
Hired Gun 23
Glasnow isn’t the pitcher he once was. I wouldn’t give up too much for him…
Moneyballer
That’s a ridiculous comment. Glasnow pitched great last year and had one of the highest k/9 rates among starters in the whole league!
Hired Gun 23
The Reds don’t need him, they should stay the course.
YankeesBleacherCreature
Stay the course and remain non-competitive?
Hired Gun 23
It’s better than losing prospects and $$$ for a pitcher, while talented, isn’t very durable…
Dog-Faced Gremlin
that’s been the montra of the front office and too much of the fan base for years, and it’s why the Reds stay home every year watching other teams in the playoffs.on tv
Hired Gun 23
So pick up an oft-injured just to do it? Glasnow isn’t the pitcher he was, last year wasn’t a full season’s worth of stats. What do you think the price will be to get him? You think they get a bargain while dealing with the Rays?
CleaverGreene
Is this Krall? because his statement about not regretting the deadline is outrageous also.
Hired Gun 23
You gotta Krall before you walk? Hahahahaha
dgredsfan
Non competitive? If they would have won just 2 more games in 2023, they would have been in the playoffs.
This one belongs to the Reds
Which might have been won by a legit starting pitcher than the dumpster dive trash they kept running out there.
Bobcastelliniscat
Keep missing the play-offs?
Big whiffa
@ hired gun. You are 100% correct. Reds are dangling india and releasing this story for fan support.
Outside of India and/or Richardson. Not sure how much more reds are willing to give up. And I don’t see where India fits into Tampa unless it’s a 3 team trade
Franklin Nitty
You mean dont trade him for one of your always injured young pitchers on the Reds staff? Hunter Greene and Lodolo have had an alarming amount of injuries at a young age and you are worried about trading one of them for someone who comes in ready to go? Ashcraft? Didnt he end the year injured? Reds fans have been brainwashed by the Castillini family. Believe your eyes and not your ears.
Franklin Nitty
Amen.
Franklin Nitty
They folded like a cheap tent and watched their manager do what he is getting famous for. Melting down.
earmbrister
No, they just missed the playoffs with an injury riddled rotation and lineup. They got a ton of young players valuable experience. They effectively were the Baltimore Orioles of the NL, one season removed.
The Reds are legit contenders for the division, while a team like the Cardinals are a shell of their former selves and are pretenders.
BrianStrowman9
Cards should be in the division title mix. Really depends if Goldy and Arenado are really in decline though. Their best days are clearly behind them—but can they improve on last season or do we see a further slide? The cards are counting on a lot of aging vets to produce.
The Reds are clearly the ascending club in the division though. Cubs are also dangerous with a solid farm and $ to spend. It ought to be a tight division race.
Redslover24
I agree that he has pitched well. But 25million for a guy that just reached his career high(120) in innings at the age of 30? He has been in the big leagues for 8 seasons. I would take someone that performs slightly worse than him but stays on the field more reliably. I think he made like 20 starts this year
Big whiffa
Name a trade that you wanted to see happen last season and the value were willing to give up and let’s see it make sense. Let me make it easy for u – Dylan Cease last season at the deadline and reds give up……?
Hired Gun 23
I think you’d have to part with 2 mlb players and a top prospect, and maybe a lower level lotto tocket…wish I could give you names.
Fire Krall
Then why add 2 Of ers and then dump them??? Don’t forget the Will Meyers fiasco..We didnt need an OF let alone 2. Krall is a tool and shouldn’t be running a roster. Clown school is in session. Uncle Bob, the Ring Master. I m sure he willl say the Reds were in on Ohtani..after he signs with the Dodgers!
Moneyballer
It’s not that big of a problem. They were without Greene and Lodolo. Getting them back changes everything!
dgredsfan
The experience that Abbott, Graham and Williamson got in 2023 should help in 2024 also. I’m ok if they stay pat and or if they add a mid rotation pitcher via free agency. Wacha could work.
Franklin Nitty
Lots of faith for two young arms coming off season ending injuries with a history of injuries. Sonny was perfect but the Reds weren’t serious.
titanic struggle
Well, at least that’s a little more encouraging, although I think topping the dirty birds offer (if he was given the chance) would have been better than giving up prospects.
Fraham_
@steveadams @markpolish @timdierkes when’s the leaderboard coming out?
tangerinepony
Maybe the reds shouldn’t have given up on Sonny gray a few years ago. Maybe next time they’ll learn
JoeBrady
Maybe the reds shouldn’t have given up on Sonny gray a few years ago.
===========================
I think the trades have worked out pretty well overall, maybe extremely well overall.
joeshmoe11
Yeah, Chase Petty was mowing down A and AA guys while Gray was a Cy Young finalist. I’d much rather have the guy 2 years away than one of the best pitchers in baseball ♂️
Bobcastelliniscat
Joeshmoe excellent point!
Fire Krall
your hired!
Fire Krall
YOU ARE…LOL;)
BrianStrowman9
Do you think the Reds would’ve kept Sonny Gray past the trade deadline of 2022? You guys were horrendous. I can almost guarantee you he would’ve been on the move then. I think the only argument you have is that you would’ve liked another prospect instead of Petty?
Franklin Nitty
Amen.
joeshmoe11
He’s not better and he’s kind of a trash bag
Franklin Nitty
How about the one for Sonny? For the high school pitcher who is still yrs away and a lottery ticket? That one. They traded away a guy who just missed being the Cy Young in the AL. Keep drinking the koolaid.
Unclemike1526
With both getting around 25 million next year I doubt the Reds are all THAT interested.
Cincyfan85
Enjoy the old folks team, Sonny. Also, enjoy finishing below the Reds the next 3 seasons.
YankeesBleacherCreature
Glasnow to the Reds, Jonathan India, and a third team trade. Rays eat some cash to get better return prospects.
Jesse Chavez enthusiast
I like the cut of your jib.
CleaverGreene
Why? India ain’t worth much and the Rays don’t want him. Besides, Gray just got 25M so how much is Glasnow really overpaid?
Fire Krall
15 Million
mp2891
Glasnow isn’t overpaid, that’s why there’s trade value. The shorter the contract, the higher the AAV. Gray is on a 3 year $75MM deal, while Glasnow is on a 1 year $25MM deal (and top pitchers on short term deals get $40MM AAV). Glasnow is also a better pitcher than Gray. Throw in the QO draft pick and Glasnow has about $15MM – $20MM surplus value.
Biggie22
I like your thinking of bringing a 3rd team…. It’s one of the few times in history but the Reds probably don’t even need the Rays to pitch in any dollars:)…
Big whiffa
How bout india and Meade to sea. Miller to rays and Glasnow to reds ??
Joel P
The Reds need an ace. They have some talent to trade. I don’t know if Glasnow and his 25 million dollar salary is the best fit. Could they get Cease or Bieber? That I think makes more sense. They need an ace. Maybe not long term Greene could be that guu eventually but he’s not that guy yet.
BrianStrowman9
Shane Bieber’s downward trajectory is extremely concerning to me. Cleveland is arguably the gold standard for developing pitchers and we’ve seen Bieber slide the wrong way. He’s just not missing bats anymore.
I’d be leery to throw him into the ace category. Feels like he’s taking a slide down to being a mid rotation guy
Joel P
Bieber is locked up for 1 year. If he takes a step back in 2024 then don’t bring him back. But he’s worth the risk for any team that needs an ace. He’s not gonna cost a ton in trade. He doesn’t make a ton annually. He’s realistic for the Reds.
BrianStrowman9
Sure. Depends what that costs in a trade. I don’t think Shane Bieber will post ace like numbers next season & I don’t expect the numbers to get any better if he leaves Cleveland.
its a realistic target for them. Just don’t think they’re getting a real ace in that scenario.
Joel P
Is Glasnow a real ace? Is Cease?
Probably the best they can realistically hope for.
Hopefully for your sake your Orioles buck up and buy an ace. My Cardinals did today so I am pretty happy.
Franklin Nitty
Might as well scrape the bottom of the barrel huh? Bieber is washed. Are the Reds serious or not because signing Bieber is basically taking a flyer. Get a pitcher, they have the money go get your man.
CleaverGreene
Cease isn’t an ACE either.
BrianStrowman9
Cease isn’t an ace in 2023 form. Gerrit Cole wasn’t coming off an ace season when the Astros picked him up either. But Cease has shown that and pitched in an Inferior organization. He hasn’t shown any decline in his stuff and is the right age.
Glasnow isn’t an ace. He’s never demonstrated the ability to consistently pitch deep in ball games. Given his contract—he shouldn’t be prohibitively expensive either.
Requires some thinking and assumptions made here. Glasnow and Bieber pitch in fantastic organizations. Bieber has shown massive red flags & Glasnow has never proven to be an ace. 2022 Cease was an ace & his organization is lousy. Out of the 3–I’d want cease.
The O’s, unlike the Cards, are likely good enough to make it to the AS break in a good spot without another TOR pitcher added. I hope one is brought in but we do have until the deadline day to actually do it.
Joel P
He would be the ace of the Reds staff
Who’s better than Cease and available?
Be realistic
ksoze
Ace of a staff isn’t a real thing. He could be their #1, but every team doesn’t have an ace.
Joel P
What’s your point?
He’s as good as the Reds are gonna get. That’s my point
This one belongs to the Reds
They really need a veteran starter, and on that staff it is more than two seasons, to show the kids the ropes. They HAVE to be more pitch efficient next season. They cannot burn out the bullpen by July again.
Joel P
You think the Orioles should want u til the deadline to get an ace???
Dude. I don’t get you.
Joel P
Yeah good point they don’t just need an ace they need a veteran ace. I like Bieber he’s a good fit with the Reds. Would have been happy if the Cardinals got him instead of Gray.
BrianStrowman9
Do I think they should wait? No. Will they? Possible.
World won’t end if that’s the route they go either. It’s no more risky than trading for one now who may struggle or get injured in the first half.
Team won 100 games last year and will only lose Kyle Gibson and Adam Frazier.
O’s will be in contention if Mike Elias sleeps through the winter. I hope he pulls off a deal for a solid SP or finds one under the radar in FA. Time will tell.
Fire Krall
Hello, My name is Bauer. I have a babysitter like Josh Hamilton did.
Bobcastelliniscat
Hunter Greene has already had one TJ surgery and has missed significant amounts of time the past two seasons. Depending on him to anchor your rotation is a good way to find yourself in the basement of the NL Central.
This one belongs to the Reds
Cat, I have been saying Greene and Lodolo need to pitch in the same game, given they usually last 3-4 innings. They won’t blow up the bullpen so much that way.
Big whiffa
I like Glasnow over bieber or cease. The cost will be less and there’s a compensation pick that will be at end of first round if he signs with another team after a QO. Reds draft well in that spot and could regain some draft capital.
Also be nice to have a 200 inning guy, but a 120 innings from Glasnow may fair just as well since reds have 6 other legit starters
Joel P
The cost is not less. It’s 25 million for the 2024 season. Have the Reds ever paid a pitcher that much for a season? I don’t think they have.
BrianStrowman9
I’d be willing to bet that at least 2/3 of the MLB has never paid that much for a pitcher for a single season.
Joel P
Exactly why Glasnow has a very small trade market. That’s why I think he’s going to the Dodgers. Maybe Giants or Mets. Not the Reds.
BrianStrowman9
I was saying most teams have never done it but we are in a new world and prices are inflated. I doubt the Reds would go long term at that AAV—but it’s at least possible for a single season. The cardinals just gave out their first $25MM AAV deal to a Pitcher
Joel P
The Reds are not the Cardinals. Not trying to be snobby but they don’t have the money the Cardinals do.
Bieber makes sense for the Reds. If the Reds wants to pay a pitcher 25 million a year they would still have Castillo.
BrianStrowman9
If they really offered Sonny Gray a contract then they were willing to go up nearly that high for him for multiple years.
The Joey Votto money just dropped off their payroll. They’d be a surprise team but if they think that’s going to propel them—who knows. I would target a controllable arm if I were them. But you get a QO compensation at year end to lessen the sting a bit.
They aren’t the cardinals but they also aren’t paying Arenado, Goldy, & Mikolas. Those 3 make more than the Reds current payroll because they have a ton of young talent. That’s the only reason I could see them be willing to do it for a year.
Joel P
It’s one thing to offer Gray and his 150 an inning average over the last decade a big contract.
It’s another to pay Glasnow HOPING he pitches over 120 innings for the first time ever.
Glasnow to the Dodgers. Bieber to the Reds. Orioles get James Paxton lol jk.
BrianStrowman9
Gray is 34 years old and that was for multiple years. I think if you’re willing to make that gamble at the same price—you’d roll the dice on Glasnow at 1/25.
I think you’re going to be very disappointed with what you see from Shane Bieber next year. If he’s out of Cleveland—I would bet you that his ERA is right around 4.
You’re joking around but I could see James Paxton fitting in Baltimore. He wasn’t a good fit pitching in front of the Green Monster but he wouldn’t be terrible with the deep LF wall here. I could see him working out as a 5th starter here with upside.
Joel P
Lol I knew you would like the Paxton idea.
Who knows what the Reds were willing to pay Gray. Probably was less than the Cardinals.
Bieber is a small risk but certainly not any more risky than Glasnow. And he makes half as much.
BrianStrowman9
I mean if you were willing to go let’s say 3/65 for Gray then 1/25 for Glasnow isnt really crazy.
Any of the deals are dependent upon what you have to give up. If it costs what the O’s gave up to acquire Jack Flaherty for Bieber—then that’s a deal that I’d make. If Bieber costs what Verlander or Montgomery did then I’m not touching him with a 10 foot pole.
I think there’s a chance that you don’t want to QO Bieber at years end. I think Glasnow is a QO lock. They both carry risk but shouldnt cost a ton in prospects.
Joel P
The Verlander trade was complicating because the Mets paid a lot of his salary in order to get prospects back.
I think the Montgomery trade worked for both sides but Saggese is gonna be a good player and probably Roby too. You could call it an overpay except they won a championship and Montgomery was a big part of that. So no way they lose that deal no matter what happens from here on out.
I don’t know how well the 2 teams match up for a Bieber deal. The Guardians need outfielders and that’s not what the Reds have to trade. Maybe an infielder but the Guardians have a lot of young ones
BrianStrowman9
The Verlander price was about what Montgomery’s was in the end though. Top 100 prospect + a top 10 org guy.
The O’s gave up their #15 prospect (Prieto) + Rom (trash) & an interesting but really far off 19 year old P.
If Bieber will go for something like that—sure. If the ask is a top 100ish guy? Hell no.
BrianStrowman9
I don’t think there’s a good match between the Reds and Guards. Unless the Guards liked a guy like Jake Fraley to plug into the OF. But I wouldn’t expect Biebs to go there.
Big whiffa
@joel. Homer Bailey + inflation equals 25 mil plus. And good Lord that was a terrible contract! From day 1, absolutely terrible !
Joel P
The Cardinals didn’t get a top 100 prospect although I think both Roby and Saggese will be one day soon.
There is something between both deals and that’s what I think Bieber will cost.
And I think there is a match there somewhere. Infielder for infielder the Reds give up a better infielder to make up for Biebers value that’s what I think is fair.
Joel P
Haha yeah that was a bad deal. His name is Homer that should have been a sign.
BrianStrowman9
Roby is a top 100 guy if you look at a decent outlet. I typically prefer FanGraphs. He is a good one. blogs.fangraphs.com/ranking-the-prospects-traded-d…
BrianStrowman9
The Reds have too many infielders already. Trading a better one for a worse one doesn’t really make any sense.
Cleveland likes prospects and developing their own guys. I’m sure the Reds have a pitching prospect out of the top few that is of interest to Cleveland. I just don’t think Bieber is going to go there. I’d sign Mahle & another FA starter and keep their chips for another move.
Joel P
Reds got rid of Senzel. I believe they have 6 infielders left and that’s exactly what they need.
Cleveland could use more of a sure thing at infield. Trade someone like Freeman for a better infielder and include Bieber.
BrianStrowman9
Cleveland only needs a SS. 2B is Gimenez. 3B is Jram and they just dealt for Manzardo to take 1B.
You think the Reds are trading De la Cruz or Mclain? Not a chance on planet earth. India, Steer, Marte, and CES arent SS’s.
mp2891
Brian – ERA isn’t really a good judge of a pitcher’s ability. Bieber’s xERA was 4.77 last year, which was pretty atrocious. The wheels have already fallen off the Bieber mobile. I think he’s a mid-rotation arm now.
This one belongs to the Reds
They should have given that contract to Cueto. Said it then, say it now.
Fire Krall
Bauer on line 1? anyone?
This one belongs to the Reds
Bueller? Bueller?
mp2891
I could see Cease interesting the Reds, but not Bieber, at least if they want a TOR Ace. Reds will have to pay a lot more for Cease though because of his extra year of cheap control. Biebs would come cheap because he’s not really that good anymore and has his own injury concerns. You get what you pay for. Glasnow is better than both but his trade cost should be less than Cease.
mp2891
Joel – Folks on MLBTR are talking about Bieber all wrong. He’s not an Ace anymore, but he’s not paid like one either. If a team needs a middle rotation arm with some injury risk, he’s a good candidate for the job. That’s all he is at this point.
Slider_withcheese
Trevor Bauer would be cheaper than either and Trevor Bauer is better than both.
This one belongs to the Reds
That ain’t happening, ESPECIALLY in Cincinnati.
Fire Krall
but it should!
Slider_withcheese
Why not? Micheal Jackson is still played on the radio.
Deleted Userr
Why not?
IjustloveBaseball
The Reds window is just beginning to creak open, thus a one-year rental such as Glasnow doesn’t jive as the ideal motion.
It’s almost certainly a statement made in vain, but Yamamoto would be quite the splash here. His youth fits with their trajectory, and the international boost he’d provide would be a welcome boon in Cinci.
Financial limitations notwithstanding, they have the payroll space.
Bobcastelliniscat
The Reds window is two years. They will play the Rookies as long as they are making league minimum. Once Elly, Steer, Friedle etc. reach arbitration, the next rebuild will commence.
This one belongs to the Reds
Baseball, makes sense to everyone but the front office. I agree he fits and he is a young veteran who knows how to pitch. But they won’t do what it takes to land him.
aussiegiants53
Dam! I had the Reds getting Gray in the contest. Onto the next
Bobcastelliniscat
Never bet on the Reds to spend money.
Fire Krall
unless it is OFer at the dead line or for a washed up OFer..thats a bust that you dump mid season.
dankyank
The Rays seem desperate to cut salaries. Trading Glasnow for India cuts roughly $20 million and gives them a replacement 2b, allowing them to further reduce payroll.
The Reds have a relatively inexpensive arbitration class and just $16 million in guaranteed contracts for 2024. While this would be relatively uncharacteristic move for Nick Krall, the substantial salary relief should allow the Reds to get a couple of mid-tier prospects thrown in.
Glasnow is potentially an enormous upgrade to Cincinnati’s rotation and way to restock the farm. If things don’t work out, he’s gone in ’25. This is a calculated risk worth taking, provided Tampa is willing to sweeten the deal with prospects.
BrianStrowman9
Tampa is not sweetening the deal with prospects. Jonathan India is not that valuable. To the Rays—he has almost no value because they have about 5 options to play 2B/3B that are or have the potential to be as good or better than India.
& they’re all cheaper next season expect for Brandon Lowe. Who is marginally more expensive.
dankyank
Franco is on administrative leave indefinitely, Taylor Walls still hasn’t hit since being promoted and Basabe, Caminero and Aranda are unproven. The infield depth is much weaker than it looks.
Lining up a replacement for Lowe allows the Rays to unlock $25 to $30 million in savings between him and Glasnow.
Personally, I think Tampa is valuing a low payroll above all else. Jonathan India is hardly overpriced at $4 to $5 million,
There’s a surprising list of former Rays offensive prospects (Brujan, Bauers, Walls, Solar, Lowe) who failed to develop, or only did so after leaving.
The Rays excel at trading for undervalued players, but struggle somewhat with developing their own prospects. Houston and Atlanta had the two weakest farm systems heading into 2023 and both teams got far more mileage out of their rookies than Tampa.
I would not be sanguine about relying on a large group of green position players if I were Tampa.
BrianStrowman9
Jonathan India does not play SS. Franco’s absence makes no difference for him. Lowe only makes a bit more than India this year.
Lowe-2B
Paredes-3B.
That leaves Caminenero, Aranda, and Mead as rovers. Walls/Basabe at SS. Carson Williams could factor in too.
They’re good without India.
mp2891
Dank – While that may all be true (not saying it is of course), it doesn’t explain why the Rays would want a player who has hit below 100 wRC+ in 2 of his 3 years and has graded negatively in the field every year.
JackStrawb
@dankyank The problem w/ Glass to the Reds is that he doesn’t pitch enough to really move the needle, and he eats $25m of payroll that can be better spent elsewhere. He also doesn’t have any upside at $25m unless you can somehow save him for the stretch run then postseason starts—but teams never really do that.
—-Mid-tier prospects? That’s a little too vague to address seriously, but to get Glasnow with no salary relief a team would have to trade something like a 50 FV hitting prospect, an overpay in dollar value, but elite starting pitchers are rare enough to warrant it. How much more than a 50 FV prospect is India worth, if he is, since he’s starting to get expensive and is two years removed from his lone, good year? Not much, and not a couple of mid-tier prospects.
The Reds have no business shopping in the luxury aisle for 90 innings of great pitching that will add a couple of wins during the regular season, not for $25m, and not if they have to deal a moderately useful player like India (just 0.7 rWAR per 650 PA in 2022-2023, so there’s that) for the privilege, while the Rays have no business trading one of the best starters in the game (albeit a half-timer) for an ordinary lump like India who isn’t even a reliable starting position player at this point..
BrianStrowman9
jack
Why is Jonathan India even worth a 50FV prospect? He’s been a below average defender and slightly below league average hitter for 2 years. His hit data doesn’t suggest that he’s been particularly unlucky to do so while hitting in one of the friendliest home parks in the league.
I think that is an overpay for him.
Big whiffa
Indias grades will be all over the place from franchise to franchise and scout to scout. The “what have u done for me lately” crowd will freak and the “fix it” crowd will drool while teams scared of his injury history will stay away. It only takes 1 buyer though
mp2891
Jack – All of Glasnow’s injuries prior to 2023 were arm related (arm fatigue, elbow strain, etc) that the Rays asked him to “rehab” by resting the arm so that he would be available for the post-season. That merely delayed the inevitable, and in 2021 he underwent TJS. Last year was his first year back from TJS and he pitched 120 IP, the most of his career (and all that he would be allowed in his first year back from TJS). There is no reason to think he can’t pitch 175 IP in 2024. Just because he hasn’t done it, doesn’t mean he won’t do it. Had he had TJS in 2019 or 2020 like he should have, we probably wouldn’t even be having a discussion of “injury prone Glasnow”.. Now, you may think I’m a dumb Rays homer for thinking Glas’ injury woes are behind him, but I’m pretty sure that any team trading for him this year will be thinking like me and not believing they are trading for 100 IP in 2024. Believe what you want, but Glasnow the 2024 Cy Young Winner is a real possibility.
As far as trades, a Petty/Phillips plus Schoenwetter for Glasnow (no cash) trade makes sense.
mp2891
Dank – The Rays don’t want India. They have B.Lowe, I.Paredes, J.Caminero, C.Mead, O.Basabe, and several others who can play 2B. Most of those players have a much better bat than India and they all play better defense. India is awful in the field. The Rays aren’t trading Glasnow for India (and even if they wanted India, his trade value is a lot lower than Glasnow’s, and the Reds would have to include 1-2 others).
JackStrawb
Gray at the top of the rotation, Gibson and Lynn flesh out the back end… that’s a combined 450 innings of (very) roughly average MLB pitching for 2024—with some upside—with only Gray on board for more than one year.
The Cardinals are still smart. This is what the Mets should have done (plus someone like Severino) assuming they’re punting 2024 (which they are). Yamamoto would be preferable to Gray, but YY isn’t signing with the Mets, who are all the way back to where they were when they had to throw a ridiculous $43m AAV at Scherzer to get him to sign after Cohen’s disastrous first year.
Good work, Moze.
TribeFan88
Glasnow, Andrew Abbott, Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft could potentially be one of the best rotations in the National League.
The concern with Glasnow, of course, is the injuries.
Bobcastelliniscat
And what about Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo? It’s not like they are towers of strength. Both spend more time on the IL than off.
Franklin Nitty
Dont go stating facts Bob. That would confuse him.
Big whiffa
I think reds move lodolo to pen. Him and Diaz make a nasty back end !
Biggie22
This makes sense for the Reds..
It gives Green, Lodolo & Ashcraft another year to transition into Veteran roles & Abbott another year of seasoning…
It also gives a bridge for the younger guys (Lowder & Petty) to develop…
I’d probably look to bring in a 3rd team so the Reds can deal from their abundance of position players but the Rays can still get the MLB ready pitching they’re seeking in return…
solaris602
Let’s just fast forward to the end of this saga when it doesn’t happen, and Krall explains to the media that in the end the cost in prospects AND Glasnow’s $25M salary just didn’t fit into the Reds’ philosophy or budget. The end.
This one belongs to the Reds
Fast forward to the excuses at the end of the off-season, because they will be the same ones. But they’ll still have 12 shortstops in the system!
Bobcastelliniscat
Let’s also fast forward to the part where Krall says “Not signing key free agents, will allow the Reds the flexibility to add talent at next years trading deadline”
This one belongs to the Reds
Like when they said all those shortstops would be assets to go get what they need when criticized for that?
Crypto Nerd
Some of the comments in here are nuts. Prime year pitchers on 1 year deals have way more value than most here think. Sonny Gray just got the same AAV over 3 years. While being over 3 years older and averaging 3 MPH slower on his fastball then Glasnow. Gray has been more durable recently though.
Tampa might throw in some cash to keep the cost reasonable but they probably match up better with a big market team on a Glasnow trade.
Reds should pivot to the lower cost Bieber and keep their top prospects. Tampa should shop Glasnow to a team over or near the luxury tax. Tyler’s contract is expensive in real dollars this year but is slightly over 50% of that in terms of luxury tax costs. A team like Texas or the Dodgers would make more sense to me on a Glasnow trade, if TB makes one.
Biggie22
I honestly don’t think the Reds would ask the Rays to eat any salary & they don’t need to…. I do think the Reds would prefer to deal from their abundance of infield assets so it may take a 3rd team to get a deal done if the Rays are looking for MLB ready pitching….
Marlins would make sense to get involved…
Reds get Glasnow & his whole salary
Marlins get Edwin Arroyo (top 100 prospect) & Johnathan India plus a mid level Rays prospect…
Rays get Edward Cabrera (who they’ll no doubt turn into a Cy Young winner:)….
Armaments216
The Reds’ payroll is sitting about $30M below last year’s payroll, and they were still rebuilding last offseason.. They can easily afford to take on Glasnow’s full salary to reduce the prospect cost.
Plus, if Glasnow stays heathy and rejects a QO after the season, he’d net the Reds an early-round compensatory pick. In that sense Glasnow has more value to the Reds (or Rays) than to a big market team.
Tiger22matt
The Reds are not throwing in a top 100 prospect for 1 year of extremely injury prone Glasnow. That’s just nuts and an extreme over pay to pay 25 million for about 15 starts a season for 1 season.
Big whiffa
No way arroyo is traded in that deal. His bat is developing and he has elite defense. Reds won’t be coming off their top 9 prospects. Way to much upside for 1 year of Glasnow
cguy
Krall has done a very good job in trades over the last couple years, but few teams come out on top making deals with the Rays.
I’d pass on Glasnow. Sign maybe Lorenzen and take a 2 year flyer on Mahle.
Franklin Nitty
They have done well in one trade. The rest the jury is out. Traded 2 Cy Young finalists for these minor leaguers so lets see what happens. As far as big league production goes, they have lost those trades by MILES.
Armaments216
The Reds are obviously in a much better position now than if they hadn’t made those trades. Of all the players they traded, the only one who’d still be under team control is Eugenio Suarez and he’d now be taking up payroll space and blocking younger players.
TribeFan88
@Bobcastelliniscat Good point, they definitely have injury concerns, too.
I’m hoping Lodolo will be good to go moving forward since his 2023 issue was a leg injury, not anything related to his arm.