The Brewers have a ticking clock on their hands with Corbin Burnes. The right-hander has been excellent for them over the past four seasons but he’s now just one year away from free agency. They could have tried to sign him to an extension at some point but had not done so as of September of last year, per Burnes himself.
The pitcher recently expanded on the process in some comments with Fair Territory on November 17, as relayed by Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. “That was never something that we got to,” Burnes said when asked about extension talks. “Obviously, coming off the shortened season in 2020, having my first good year after signing [for] ‘21, I think for them it was, ‘Hey, wait and see if this was a one-off year,’ or if they thought this was something we could explore long-term.”
Burnes then goes on to explain that his continued success inflated his earning power so much that he was out of their price range and they didn’t want to bother insulting him with a lowball offer. This brought the two sides to the impasse where they currently find themselves. “I think a couple of years ago, I was open to going and getting something done, but I think at this point, both sides know that we’re a year away from free agency, and we want to see what the market can bring.”
As McCalvy lays out, that leaves the club with two distinct options. One is to hold onto Burnes and see what happens in 2024, which would still leave open the possibility of a midseason trade or receiving a compensation pick after extending a qualifying offer to Burnes. The other path is to trade him now.
The holding path certainly has its appeal. The club is the defending champion in the National League Central, after all. They will have to proceed without Brandon Woodruff, who was recently non-tendered in the wake of shoulder surgery. But he missed most of 2023 as well and the club still managed to thrive. Some other players also departed via free agency but the club could feasibly have a stronger outfield next year. Each of Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick and Tyrone Taylor were held back by injuries and could perhaps contribute more next year, joining Christian Yelich and Joey Wiemer in a strong outfield mix.
Then there’s Jackson Chourio, one of the top prospects in the sport, who reached Triple-A in 2023 and could debut in 2024. The club and Chourio are reportedly discussing an extension, which could perhaps increase his chances of being a factor in 2024. That could then lead to an outfield surplus, which could allow the club to perhaps bolster their team while holding Burnes.
The club could stand to find some upgrades on the infield and in the back of the rotation, but they could have some money to do so. Roster Resource estimates next year’s payroll at $101MM right now. Last year’s Opening Day figure was $119MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, while they were at $132MM in 2022.
But the downside of the holding option is quite apparent with the example of Woodruff. The unfortunate reality with pitchers is that injury can quickly sap them of their value, both in terms of on-field contributions and trade value. If anything unfortunate were to develop with Burnes in 2024, the club could regret not cashing in when they had the chance.
By all accounts, the demand for starting pitching is high this winter and not every club is going to be jazzed about the idea of committing hundreds of millions of dollars over many years in order to upgrade their staff. Burnes is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an arbitration salary of $15.1MM next year, far cheaper than what top free agent arms will get, while also having the ability to recoup a compensatory draft pick at year’s end. Some club with a position player surplus but pitching needs may be willing to give up MLB-ready pieces to get Burnes, allowing Milwaukee to perhaps upgrade on the infield.
But the trade path isn’t easy either. The club is already going to be without Woodruff, so flipping Burnes would further weaken a rotation that has been such a strength for the club. With Wade Miley, Julio Teheran and Eric Lauer all free agents, a Milwaukee rotation without Burnes would consist of Freddy Peralta, Adrian Houser and Colin Rea, with options like Aaron Ashby, Bryse Wilson, Janson Junk and Robert Gasser also around. They could perhaps then use some of their funds to patch that over, but it’s obviously a better group with Burnes in it.
Looking at the broad picture, the division seems to be in a state of flux. The Cardinals are aggressively trying to put their miserable 2023 behind them, while the Cubs, Reds and Pirates are all coming out of their respective rebuilds at different speeds. With both Burnes and Willy Adames set for free agency a year from now, perhaps the Brewers should keep the gang together for one last heist, but doing so might hurt their chances of continuing to compete in 2025 and beyond.
What do you think? Should Burnes stay or go? Have your say in the poll below!
(poll link for app users)
Best pitcher in franchise history but it’s time to say goodbye.
Sadly, I agree BUT only if they can get top quality major league ready talent in return.
You won’t get that for 1 year of CBurn. Not saying the Brewers shouldn’t pursue that return though. They should set the price for greater than the value of Burns or just keep him and compete.
Burnes gets back a Sheehan & Yoendry Vargas type return or he gets held.
Yes, that trade has to be well thought out and lots of homework done. You have to hit on another pitching prospect and a ready 3B or 1B of some sort. Real prospects. Something to compensate for the comp pick as well as his WAR lost for the year, and a premium just because they don’t have to. It’s going to hurt that team, but they’ll be getting a solid year from a premier pitcher
Jd Davis, and Harrison….hows that for starters?
A 30yo 3rd baseman and a 22yo pitcher topping out at 93mph? Afraid not. I mean you’re close with the pitcher, but Brewers want controllable talent for several years I’d imagine, and throw in a high A lotto ticket pitcher for good measure
I’ll give you 3 A ball pitchers.
Harrison? Topping out at 93mph? That’s not what I witnessed. 92-95 and with his slot release point he could be a number 1-2 starter as soon as this year. He had a great swing and miss rate in the minors. I believe it was 40%
I know BTV isn’t the final word, but they have Davis and Harrison with a surplus value of 35 to Burnes’ surplus value of 32. I can understand not wanting to trade Burnes for those 2, but that’s the level of return the Brewers would have to expect. That’s why I voted for them to keep him. They aren’t getting a big return for only one year.
Jean I 100% agree. I even would grimace a bit at giving up Harrison.
Lol, 3 A ball players is possible but they will all need to be top 100 prospects or close to.
Why trade for him if you have major league talent?
I think Burns value would be higher mid-season vs in the offseason. I know teams would lose draft pick compensation but the demand is much higher mid-season for Ace caliber pitchers.
His value will continue to go down getting closer to FA. The return will be small coming back now.
Orioles are a perfect fit. Small market teams unite!
Their ceiling with Burnes is winning the Central again. Not sure that is worth hanging on for another year.
Seems unlikely to happen.
What was your realistic take on the D’Backs ceiling this year?
Anyways, they cash out guys like this to keep the competitive window open for longer. & they probably should move him. One injury away from winding up like Woodruff and walking away for nothing.
Texas went into the 2023 season at +4500 to +5000 (depending on where you look) to win the WS. Their odds were the same as the Giants, and worse than the Brewers, Angels, White Sox, Guardians, and Cardinals. If the Brewers win the central then them winning it all is not wildly improbable.
If you win the central you are in the playoffs. If you are in the playoffs your ceiling is the WS.
@Brian/Jean/Jeremy – The difference between the surprise WC teams and the Brewers, like the Phillies in 2022 and the D’Backs this year, is that they had an offense that could get hot and compliment their top end starters in the postseason. Assuming the Brewers don’t add any bats (which is a reasonable assumption), I am confident that their ceiling is winning the lackluster central and getting dumped in the WC round (again). Let’s not be delusional because of recency bias that the Brewers are built in any way to make a run like the Phillies, D’Backs, or Rangers.
I agree. Except that sometimes it’s the pitching shutting down the opponents hitting. It wouldn’t be the first time a team that didn’t hit that well still won it all.
Any team, regardless of strength of lineup, can get hot. It only takes one or two players. Garcia was the reason Texas won.
@stymeedone – any team with a deep lineup can get hot, not just any lineup, and certainly not Milwaukee’s lineup. Texas won because their lineup is deep and they had players who could step up (like Garcia and Seager in the World Series) when others got cold (like Semien). Saying that any lineup can get hot and then using Texas as an example is just silly. They weren’t just any lineup, they were the most dominant offense for most of the season.
@Jean – I can agree with this. Sometimes, really good pitching trumps hitting in the playoffs. The Giants and Royals teams that won World Series are good examples of that. Maybe last year the Brewers had the pitching depth to replicate one of those teams, but their rotation looks a lot thinner with Miley potentially departing and Woodruff still injured. Again, I’m also assuming they’re going to be cheap and not sign many notable additions, but it is still early in the offseason, so we shall see.
They shouldn’t be cheap, but we know they will be.
What does this mean? You think they should extend him?
That is by far the worst option.
Cy Young with 167 Innings ? That’s a Joke. Still a great season and great pitcher. Would hope they would resign him.
Snell just won with 180. That’s not a huge difference. How many guys top 200 now each year? Three or four? It’s not their fault; it’s the teams, as well as how hard they throw.
That is two extra starts, which is not insubstantial.
It’s not when deciding between two contenders. However, it’s insubstantial when a guy with 167 innings dominates over the guy with 180+.. A team would always take the fewer innings over the greater if the fewer provide more value.
Put a proposal out there. I am a Cardinal fan I don’t spend any time making trade proposals with the Brewers because the Cardinals don’t really trade with the Brewers.
What are we talking? They won the division. No guarantee the Cubs, Reds or Brewers will be better in 2024. But trading him and Adames could help a ton for the future.
What are we talking?
Donovan & Graceffo probably gets it done. Slight overpay for the Central address…?
I think, I hope, I pray they don’t trade Donovan, or Edman
I would rather they move Gorman, Walter or Winn.
You must not be a Cardinals fan if you want them to trade Winn, Gorman, or Walker. Those three and Nootbaar are the future of the Cardinals.
Keep two replaceable utility players and trade three future stars? Gorman, Walker and Winn are the next core of the Cardinals. Edman and Donovan are solid and very useful but one of them will likely be traded.
NL central trade just not happening, sorry. You can bank on that. Attanasio won’t buy off on that for sure.
Yeah I understand that the Brewers aren’t trading with the Cardinals.
What do you think Brewers fan? Should they trade him? For what?
Yes definitely. I proposed what I think it’ll take above. It’ll have to compensate for the lost comp pick (after first round), his expected WAR this year, and a premium just because – at least a lotto ticket pitcher. I’m thinking a MLB ready 3B since Tyler Black doesn’t seem to have the power you want there yet. And you have to try to replace the pitcher you lost in the rotation.
Above what?
Just say what you think it would take. Doesn’t have to be a giant process.
I think we’d line up well with the Orioles for example. Not Holiday, but they have another SS/3B prospect and some near MLB pitching as an example. Some of those guys are obviously blocked at the moment, so let’s see if they can buy a damn good pitcher and allow them to make a deeper run this year.
The Orioles definitely have infielders to trade. I don’t know if they have pitching to trade.
If we’re adding Corbin Burnes—I’m sure the O’s could part with a controllable back end guy like Dean Kremer in the return.
Since neither of you can make an actual trade proposal for some reason I will
Kjerstad for Burnes
Westbury and Kremer for Burnes
Now go ahead and tell me why that’s stupid. After you are finished make your own trade proposal like I asked people to do at the beginning of this conversation.
Relax, Joel. Nobody is required to put up a trade offer. The Brewers don’t need an OF at all but the 2nd one lines up with their needs.
Guessing the exact players that will be dealt is a fools errand anyways. You’ll never get the exact package. I typically throw out some combination of value and needs that might make sense. We’ll all be wrong.
Brewers need a 1b that’s where Kjerstad would play.
I asked what it would take. That’s what I asked that’s the message you are replying to.
It doesn’t have to be exact I just want to know what people think is a fair trade. That was my goal in asking the question I asked.
Why did I have to tell an Orioles fan that Kjerstad plays 1b????
You are incredibly obnoxious.
I’ll play. Kjerstad alone isn’t enough. That’s about halfway there. Kremer and Westburg is a big overpay. Maybe Kremer and Tate, or Westburg and Norby, but I doubt the O’s want to trade Westburg.
I got a feeling you are looking at trade value simulator and using their values as a guide Jean.
Kjerstad is a STUD. I don’t care what trade simulator says he’s a future star and if anything the Orioles are giving up too much in that deal. But a year of an ace at a reasonable price and a near certain draft pick or chance to sign him long term is very valuable.
I looked up trade simulator myself but I also try to incorporate my own knowledge into the offer. Kjerstad is a stud I can’t say that enough. He’s sorta blocked but he’s better than the guys in front of him.
Kjerstad got some partial work in at 1B but the club didn’t give him a single rep at the ML level. He’s not a ML 1B at this point. He needs more reps there.
They have to do something with Yelich also. That OF is crammed. Their infield is wide open and Baltimore has plenty of those prospects.
He played over 300 innings at 1b in the minors in 2023. And if he needs work so what if the Brewers trade Burnes that means they are rebuilding he doesn’t have to play right away.
They need a 1b. They can trade an outfielder. They need a 1b.
@jean
I’m curious why you think Kjerstad alone isn’t enough but Kremer and Tate is?
Tate has marginal value and Kremer is a backend starter.i think Westy and Kjerstad aren’t too far off from each other as far as value goes. Really just depends on what the acquiring team needs.
I applaud your apparent knowledge of every MLB team’s farm system. I don’t have that sort of knowledge to lay out a bunch of names, nor the time to follow that closely! But you’re talking about 2- top 10 guys + just to make up for Burnes’s comp pick plus a potential Cy Young year on the field lost. So it would cost serious talent in return. Or don’t bother and the Crew stands pat. They don’t have to trade him. That value falls by the deadline, so you get a premium now.
Joel, if you want someone’s opinion on a topic that you don’t know about then you can’t be so obnoxiously defensive. I follow the Orioles and frequently watch the Tides. Kjerstad is a big work in progress over at 1B. He’s not natural there. If the O’s thought he was ready—he would’ve picked up some late season PT there.
Maybe the crew want him. I think Yelich is immovable and that’s going to ultimately be his slot. We’ll see.
Kjerstad is a top 30 in all of baseball prospect and I think he’s underrated at that. He’s not a defensive Wizz but he’s going to hit I would bet anything on it. He hasn’t filled out yet he’s got a big frame he’s a stud. I think the Orioles could offer a package of lesser players but if you want 1 stud that’s the guy.
Kjerstad got over 300 innings at 1b in the minors last year. Yes he has work to do there I never said otherwise. But if Milwaukee trades Burnes it’s a rebuild he’s got time to learn. There is always DH and he can still play outfield. He’s a great fit for the Brewers.
I appreciate your enthusiasm for Kjerstad. But, It’s not just BTV. Fangraphs has him as the 7th best O’s prospect. I understand that the O’s system is stacked, but his FV of 45+ doesn’t say can’t miss stud.
That fangraphs prospect list is from February it’s almost a year old. Maybe you aren’t aware of this but he had a pretty good year in 2023. He had some serious health issues early in his career. He did everything he could possibly do to put those behind him in 2023 and he had a great year.
I would say ask the Orioles fan Strowman but he doesn’t seem to know much about him. I do. This is a guy I wanted the Cardinals to look at last July in a potential Goldschmidt deal so I did some amateur scouting on him. He’s a stud.
FG has been low on Kjerstad. He raked in AAA and held his own in limited work in the bigs. I love Fangraphs but most outlets have Kjerstad as a 50-55FV.
I think he’s an Anthony Santander 2.0 w/ upside to potentially eclipse that. I’d slap a 50FV on him at this point.
That Fangrpahs ranking is from freaking February.
Fangraphs are the defense people they are the ones who understand defense and that’s not Kjerstads strength at all. There is a chance his best position is DH in 5 years.
But he’s going to hit. That swing is legit and he’s going to get even stronger than he is now. He’s going to hit.
TBH I look at BTV a lot, but also Fangraphs. BTV has Kremer with a higher surplus value than Kjerstad, because SPs are more valuable. Kremer has about 2/3s the value of Burnes, where Kjerstad is shown at about half Burnes’ value. I threw in Tate to equal out the surplus, because the Brewers could use a reliever more than an OF. I was surprised to see Westburg valued as high as he is.
I know BTV values aren’t 100% concrete but it’s better than most of us can do since there are so many factors involved other than performance like salary, years of control, and availability. For instance, I don’t think the O’s would be anxious to move Kremer because he has a lot of value despite the opinion of fans, making his availability low and so more valuable.
Yeah I mean I have to disagree with their assessment: I would assume if you plugged Cal Quantrill in last season then you would’ve came up with a high surplus value from BTV. Kremer has issues under the hood. Hes the type who could get bumped out of the rotation as better arms come through. He has surplus value in the pre-arb and arb-1 and 2 years when he provides cheap innimgs
It doesn’t have to be exact I just want to know what people think is a fair trade.
=========================
I agree with the sentiment. This place is filled with fans expecting the 20 WAR returns for guys with one year left, and other fans thinking they can bundle up 3-4 guys that are not in their team’s top-5 for the same guy.
At a minimum, one should make a call on Burnes 2024 value. I’d call it ~ 4.0-4.5 bWAR, plus the likelihood of a comp pick. To me, that looks like about a 50 FV in return.
From my RS perspective, that’s maybe Rafaela or Yorke.
I believe if you reference BTV you should have your comment privileges suspended for 30 days.
Brian, Of course guys on BTV will be over and undervalued. The value reflects what they’ve done and the amount of team control. You’re bringing in a predictive aspect. Had BTV been able to predict Quantrill’s regression it would have been reflected in the value. on the other hand FV is predictive, and we all know there are plenty of guys with high FV that fall short, and vice versa.
I am with you. I’m an O’s fan. Kjerstad is absolutely going to be a hitting stud. He and Coby Mayo both. I believe Mike Elias would like to bring them both up next year. With Adames being mentioned a lot in the trade rumors, you might be able to do something around Joey Ortiz/Connor Norby. Ortiz has high defensive metrics and has done nothing but hit the past couple of seasons. Norby has done the same albeit with a lower B.A. but considerably more power. We don’t have a ton to offer in the pitching department, but there are a couple of comers in the O’s system. Not sure that Elias is looking for a rental, though – but Burnes could definitely be a guy to help bring them to the promised land.
I don’t think O’s fans have much anxiety about Kremer. He had a lot of strong outings last year and it was basically his coming out year. He’d be a real good 3 and a stud 4.
Norby and Ortiz just isn’t getting Woodruff. It’s gotta be somebody legit.
Look at what both achieved in the past two years. They’re both legit. Just blocked in the O’s system. The O’s are loaded. Those two plus a pitcher could probably net them Cease for two years – which is where I believe they’ll look. Or at Seattle.
Donovan and Graceffo isn’t getting Burnes.
I think Donovan and Graceffo is completely fair but the 2 teams won’t trade with each other. People who think Donovan isn’t good typically haven’t seen him play. He’s a great fit for the Cardinals and truly just about any team in baseball. The only reason the Cardinals talk about moving him is they have Arenado and Gorman already with Saggese on the way. But Donovan can play left field. He can play 1b. He’s really a great guy to have on the team and I don’t think he gets traded.
Donovan is a merely a utility player, but nothing special. He does provide value as a utility player but he’s no Ben Zobrist. He is definitely overrated by most St. Louis fans because of a heater he went on for 6 weeks last season. But many forget he was on the verge of being sent back to Memphis just before that because he was absolutely terrible in April and May. He’s now potential damaged goods, we’ll see how arm heels and hold up moving forward. If he has throwing limitations then his value of as a utility player is gone, he doesn’t have the power to be a DH.
You are absolutely correct in Kjerstad though. He is a beast with a bat. Were it not for his heart issues he would have been drafted higher and have already been established in the majors. But he too has high medical risks. His being more serious life concerns rather than just purely baseball injuries.
That’s total nonsense about Donovan. You have no idea what you are talking about.
Are you some lame Cubs fan?
Not at all. I watch every single cardinals game, travel around the country every year to see them play and last year travelled the world. Had season tickets for over a decade, gave them up after 2016 though when I saw this demise happening. Last year was far from a shock to me. Donovan is far from a stud and average defensive, but at a lot of spots. He’s not as bad as bad of a hitter as he showed his first few months of 2023 and he’s not as good as of a hitter as he showed his last few months of 2023. He’s somewhere in the middle, which is what he showed end of 2022. Decent on base guy with limited power. He’s a guy who is valued more by his current team than other clubs see him as. Not someone you headline a trade around. He’s a slightly better than Edmond but not as good as a defender. If Edmond was left handed he’d be the higher sought after.
And you have been muted. Peace
Kjerstad was drafted 2nd overall. Don’t know that he could have been drafted much higher. But you’re right – he is going to be a beast. Maybe even the reason the O’s would even consider trading Tony Santander and his 30/`100 and clubhouse presence.
Would have to be a 3 way deal I would imagine
Orioles owner is cheap. Elias, of course, knows this. Meaning, Burnes would just be a one year rental. Can’t see Elias giving up a Kjerstad for one yr of Burnes.
Corbin Carrol thinks AZ should trade for Corbin Burnes and Patrick Corbin and bring back Corbin Martin. Maybe hire Corbin Bernsen to be a spokesperson for the team.
“DORN!”
All Corbins all the time.
That team would be woefully uncompetitive, due to extreme Corbinity.
Corbinfinity was right there
It’s Corbin Time!!!
Always trade if it’s a clear win. With 1 year left I take a fair return. Team friendly extension or trade. They probably can’t sign anyone as good as Burnes but they can put out a solid 5 rotation and upgrade the bats and be just as good.
2024 will be a rebuilding and growth year for all the young talent coming up and already in The Show. Trade Burnes in prep for the next window in 2026 or if things go well, 2025.
I was thinking the same thing…I would be trying to get a couple good pitching prospects for him and hope that they line up with the young talent they have already…or at least another young piece to go with the core they have now, like a good SS or 3rd baseman…they have their outfield and catcher lined up…definitely should trade him…they will still be good just not as good obviously
Not that it was remotely the same in terms of talent, but I was hugely in the camp that Ohtani should have been traded last year and changed the future of that franchise. Brewers have their farm mostly graduating to the bigs last and this year. They should grab ahold of that next window and trade Burnes as much as I hate to see it.
$15.1m for a cy young pitcher in a contract year + a high comp draft pick is pretty damn good. Considering the Brewers won 90+ games and the central with basically the same team…there is no need to trade him for anything less than a king’s ransom.
Totally agree that holding him also makes sense. I feel like he’s also been on the decline. He would still get the amount needed for a post-first round comp pick, but if he stumbles out of the gate his value will fall. Tough call but I think a team will blow the Crew away this off season after teams miss on other big name free agents.
True – but a high comp pick isn’t the same as 3 or so other guys that you have actually scouted and see as a fit for your team.
I assume he will sign for like 8 years/$300M or 9 years/$328.5M and his final year of arbitration will be worth around $20M, so I foresee a potential trade and sign situation, where he signs for 10 years/$350M.
I feel like he’s an under the radar reliable starter. I hope my team gets him for disposable redundant parts the Brewers would get more value out of.
…Under the radar? Guys won a Cy Young and has been talked about ad nauseum for years leading up to his inevitable trade.
I think he’s not over hyped and I think he will be a steady long term presence compared to guys who sign a big contract and become irrelevant with a bloated ERA to go with a bloated salary.
I think he will settle in somewhere and be quietly reliable.
Lol those are some outrageous contracts…no way he gets that much…he’s good but not that good
You really think a pitcher with a Cy Young and an unbroken track record of top 10 Cy Young votes etc turning 30 going into free agency won’t get 8+ years at $35M+ in this current market?
I’m just wondering how long people are going to take trilly’s bait
Aaron Nola is over a year older and got 7 years/$172M on a team friendly deal. You really think Burnes won’t get an extra year andan extra $10M or more per season on the open market?
Nope…maybe 30 a year…and that is a maybe
I think he’ll aim for more and get a bit more. Maybe closer to like $32.5M or more.
Burnes is getting a $300m+ contract provided he doesn’t get injured. You don’t switch to Boras to not get paid.
FOR ALL THE TEAMS NEEDING STARTING PITCHERS, THE ANSWER IS HELL YES!!! TRADE HIM, DFA, WAIVER WIRE, CASH CONSIDERATIONS!
Yeah they should 28 years old 3.3 ERA he’s due for a big injury soon and a decline.
Even if he remains healthy he’s on the decline. Pitchers are usually in their primes from 22-28
Lmao dude what it is widely accepted that a human beings physical prime ends around roughly 35 give or take some years due to diet and overall lifestyle choices. Why is it that in 2023 there are still some who assume the human body dissolves to $h!T after 29?
According to you no player should be given any free agency money and any baseball player 29 or over is a bad investment. Which, if true, would mean there’d be no baseball.
I’m not saying it’s a bad investbment signing him. I’m saying it would be a better investment to trade him at his Peak value, because even if he remains healthy he’s likely to decline. If he had a 1.78 or 2.2 ERA then I’d say keep him but he has a good not Excellent ERA which is why I say trade him.
Some red flags on Burnes, four straight years with a decline in his K/9 rate. 2023 FIP ERA was closer to 4.00 than 3.00. Pitched poorly in his playoff start in October. I’d be hesitant to rent Burnes for one season as the Brewers will likely ask for a return based on CY Young potential, not a pitcher on a bit of a decline. Boras almost never allows his client to sign an extension at this point.
I agree. He looks like a solid bet for 2024, but I wouldn’t make a long-term investment.
What is it with these “aces” who can’t pitch in the postseason? Annoying.
@3768902 CORBIN ON THE COBB, CORN ON THE CORBIN, OR CORBIN FOR COBB! BREWERS-GIANTS TRADE
You shouldn’t make fun of something he had no control over.
Go for another bite of the apple and if out of it in July trade him. Why take teams second tier prospects for him now.
Tough call.
Personally I’d love to bring Garrett Mitchell back to the OC and move Trout to a corner and DH duty.
I’ll dream a little and hope the Angels snag one of the NPB pitchers and send Canning or Sandoval to the Brew crew, pick up Mitchell and a bullpen arm, and both teams are better off.
Sandoval/Canning isn’t bringing back Burnes let alone Burnes, Mitchell, and a RP.
Not Burnes.
This would be the Brewers keeping Burnes and dealing a surplus outfielder for rotation help.
Might as well put him on the market. Could steal a prospect or two that the Rays/White Sox would’ve been getting for Glasnow/Cease
Trade home before the season no? I think they will finish 3rd in the division behind the Cubs and Reds, but if they make a signing or two and their youngsters have good years they have a chance to win the division again. Trade him at the deadline if they don’t think they’ll make the playoffs.
Please trade him I need some off-season excitement
Been following the Brewers since 1970.
If the right deal can be found, deal Corbin now.
He is “overrated” as a pitcher. He averaged 6 innings a start last season. Never seems to win a big game.
What really turned me on him is when he complained about what the Brewers supposedly said about him at the arbitration hearing. I am pretty sure the Brewers stated facts and he “knew what they were actually stating.” Karma is undefeated. He had a 3-0 lead in the first playoff game this year and coughed it up. What would they “say” at this year’s hearing.
Being so sensitive, he better hope the Brewers don’t trade him to a big market where the press might hurt his feelings.
Shut up, Bernie. With your sensitive ass.
When was the last year ANY Brewers pitcher averaged more than 6 innings per start? I’d guess it was B.C. (before Counsell). And it likely has more to do with analytics or Counsell’s preference to ‘save his starters and burn out the pen arms’ philosophy than anything to do with Burnes being soft..as it appears you are implying.
I’m not even responding to the rest of your rant as it’s obvious you believe he also killed your dog, slept with your wife and drank the last can of PBR from your fridge.
The Orioles are a good match for a trade!
No they’re not. The orioles are cheap and won’t spend the money.
Yea and you guys were good in 2023….
While true, no idea how that is relevant to the fact that the O’s are too cheap to trade for Burnes or to extend him.
Trade? Maybe. Extend? Nah, won’t do that. I wish we’d just sign Bauer.
they are definitely cheap. But was does that have to do with a trade?
They have to pay the player they trade for.
Yes, but only if a team offers fair value. Not one of these scrub offers, you keep seeing. At least 2 top 50 prospects. So that definitely eliminates the Angels. Sorry Dodgers fans Lux isn’t going to be enough.
Don’t trade Burnes unless it’s an overwhelming offer.
For the Brewers, it’s best to reload rather than rebuild. Go out and get Trevor Bauer and Julio Urias on one year deals cheap with club options.
If the owner doesn’t want to make the move for Bauer and/or Urias, then get Seth Lugo and re-sign Wade Miley to a one year with a club option.
That’s the best pitching staff in the division. Great starting rotation with Williams closing games.
Need to stop with the small market mentality.
Bauer & Urias? Charlie Haeger isn’t available.
Bauer is radioactive. Brewers sign him after not retaining Counsell and you’ll play to an empty stadium.
Not getting an overwhelming offer for 1 year of Burnes lol, as a Mets fan, I’d give, A. Ramirez, Megill and a SS prospect.
What must be done eventually, must be done immediately.
…and this does not need to be done.
Are you quoting Spock or Yoda?
Yes. O’s fan here. My number 1 target.
I don’t think it’s ever smart to commit to trading someone, that’s how you end up trading Murphy for Esteury Ruiz.
I do think the Brewers should trade Burnes provided they are getting better value than 1 year of Burnes at a relatively bargain cost, and a comp pick.
That trade still baffles me. The Brewers made out like bandits
If they still want to compete then no they don’t need to trade him but if they are wanting to start rebuilding then yes.
I didn’t vote because I think trading him depends on what the other team is offering. If a team is willing to give them top prospects, they should trade him.
The answer to the dilemma is to swap one year of Burnes for several years of a controllable starting pitcher. Burnes for Pepiot, for instance.
Well I don’t think you will get him lol but I agree with the sentiment…they should look to reload on pitching…they have the young offense
Well I’m not after him lol. He was just an example, but six years of someone who looks like a mid-rotation starter for one year of top of the rotation starter is a deal most teams would at least consider.
Pepiot is a Boras client as well if I’m not mistaken. Although it’s just speculation, but considering how Friedman has not made many deals with Boras, Pepiot was probably not going to be getting an extension. Just like Burnes would probably be a one year guy for Friedman.
Pepiot is team controlled through 2028, so it’s a little early to be getting into Boras theories.
Plus some ancillary pieces but yeah that would be a reasonable option.
More than just ancillary pieces. Pepiot has about 1/3 the surplus value of Burnes. Adding Cartaya is probably enough, Pages probably wouldn’t be, and getting into that area with guys like Cartaya and Pages is maybe not what the Dodgers would be willing to do. I wouldn’t blame them from shying away from doing that.
I look at those surplus value calculations too, but sometimes they are laughable. They’re valuing Pepiot as if he’s good for maybe a couple of seasons in the bullpen and Burnes like the second coming of Sandy Koufax. Sometimes you just need to get a little real.
I agree the value for Pepiot is lower than it should be. But that’s an exaggeration to say Burnes is valued like Koufax. The 32-33 surplus value is just about right considering his track record and that he’s only 29.
By comparison Framber Valdez, a year older with one year more control is valued at 49.4. Understandably Zac Gallen has a 52.9 value, because he’s 2 years younger than Burnes with an additional year of control. Merrill Kelly is 35 with only one year of control, and he’s valued at 21.3.
That’s $34M in SURPLUS value, meaning on top of the $15M he’s being paid, which puts his total market value at close to $50M! So yeah, second coming of Koufax or some other generational pitcher. His age isn’t really material because the calculation is all about the one year remaining in his current contract.
Burnes’ value, out of context, seems like a lot, but surplus value plus salary, is always going to look high. Doing the same math on Framber Valdez, his market value is $61.5M. Gallen’s value is also over $60M. And Merrill Kelly’s market value is $30M. In that context, then yes, Burnes’ value makes sense.
If Koufax were pitching today his surplus value would exceed that of Valdez, Gallen, and Burnes, and by a very considerable amount. So again, claiming that Burnes value is somehow in the realm of Koufax is simply hyperbole.
You are missing the meaning of surplus value, confusing it with market value. Surplus value is the market value of a player, minus how much they are being paid currently. No player has a single season market value of $60M, or anywhere close, and that is simply a fact. Another fact: making up crazy valuations more than once doesn’t make them any less crazy, only more so.
Further, Valdez and Gallen are both under team control for two more seasons and Burnes for just one. His surplus value should be around $20M, plus or minus depending on how your figure the premium for starting pitching this offseason.
In your previous post to this one you added Burnes’ salary to BTV’s surplus value assessment to arrive at your $50M total. I just followed your example in comparing Burnes to the others
Now in this last post you say that the salary should be deducted. Of course Burnes is going to look overvalued if you add his salary and deduct everyone else’s.
BTV has Burnes surplus value at 33.8, and his projected arb salary is $15.1. That would be $18.7M; far less than your $50M figure..
Yes I’m aware of the additional year of control, In fact I mentioned it above. But Valdez is also a year older.. So comparing value (BTV surplus minus salary)::
Burnes – $18,7M
Valdez – $37.3M
Gallen – $42M
But in your words Burnes’ is rated like Sandy Koufax.
The surplus value concept is very simple, but for some reason that eludes me you are still not getting it, and I’ve run out of patience trying to explain it. So feel free to reread the previous explanations, but please don’t ask me to explain this again and again. Thank you.
You don’t want me to ask because you can’t justify how you arrived at Burnes’ value of $50M. Since you seem to be unable, I won’t ask. I’m just as tired of your evasion and non-specific answers as you purport to be treading water.
I wouldn’t trade Pepiot for 1 year of burnes.
These “should they trade so and so?” polls are a little silly. Fans not connected to the current team of the player under consideration will more than likely ‘vote’ for trading the player. Why not? It is more fun to think about trades…..maybe to YOUR team.
As a Brewer fan, I would trade him for a package of high ceiling minor league pitchers, do not want any existing mlb bottom of the rotation types. That’s why I look at the Braves. Means a short reboot which I am fine with.
Burnes for Bregman.
I’m surprised the results are so lopsided in favor of trading. I guess the assumption is the return will be big. It won’t be. One year of Burnes can get some decent guys, but unless they want a tear-it-down rebuild, and take a return of low-level, high-upside guys, years away, then the return is going to be disappointing. Unless some team thinks Burnes is the difference in winning a WS title, and way overpays, the answer is hold on to him.
I think I has less to do with the expected (or hopeful) return, and more to do with the very real probability that if they don’t trade him, they get a comp pick when he walks after this year.
Why?
1. MKE is cheap.
2. He’s a Boras client, and they almost never sign extensions.
3. He’s probably still mad about last year’s arb, and this one isn’t likely to be any better.
4. Good chance there’s more than 1 team believing they’re 1 or 2 guys away from seriously contending-that may also believe trading for him gives them the inside track to sign him long-term, either by an extension (unlikely) or when he actually hits free agency.
With or without him, I don’t think MKE goes into legit tank/rebuild mode. It may happen if the team can’t scrap out wins like they have the past several years, but not because they blow up the roster by trades or otherwise cutting payroll this winter.
And unless they go all-in and bring in a few big guns, the answer is actually to trade him this winter, for the best return they can get.
How does a team value Burnes with an Arb hearing likely in his future again? That’s gotta be like 5mil difference coming between the 2 sides. Affects his trade value 5mil value. 1st rd pick value or nah? I think this line goes on the thought train why I seen they don’t plan to trade Burnes. Only if the 2 sides settle on a contract this year and avoid a hearing would I then see Milw trade him.
Dear Brewers, Rays, Indians, Mariners, Orioles, Reds maybe you should just go for it when the opportunity is there. Spend the money everyone else is giving you and give your team a chance to reach the pinnacle. It’s not something that comes around every year but when you’re on the edge just go for it because it’s good for the sport and your fanbase. Please!
Agreed.
I made that argument for my team from the offseason to the trading deadline and they did exactly squat despite an 82 million dollar payroll. They had spent 130-135 before. A lot of fellow “fans” called me crazy and of course I was proven right as they missed the playoffs by two games as I knew they would by sitting on their hands. It wasn’t hard to see coming.
They may never get that close again for a while because everyone else has had a busy offseason already while they still watch.
The Brewers should be in full tear down mode and trying to build around their young guys, getting a large number of good pre-arb to early arb players at the same time is their one path to winning. Trade everyone they can over the age of 28 and play for 3-4 years from now
#2 farm system with 4 rookies that played last year.
They already play to an empty stadium unless they play the Cubs, most Wisconsin fans just don’t want anything more than Packers football.
I’ve always liked it as a Cardinals fan living equidistant from Milwaukee and Chicago, Milwaukee is my favorite away stadium by far. Parking is super easy and you can always buy cheap seats and move down towards field level by the third inning. No such thing as cheap seats at Wrigley anymore
I don’t mean to let the facts get in the way but over the last 6 years the Brewers have been 11th in attendance in the majors.
They are challenged geographically as they have two other mlb teams 90 miles away and a great lake to the east.
Think of the geography of the St Louis area. Concentric circles spreading out in all directions.
Facts are facts.
Until you hit KC!
The Brewers have ranked in the bottom half of the NL in attendance for the last two years. This number will most probably drop even lower if they do end up committing to a rebuild.
Their geography isn’t the only issue, it’s a football first state. And that’s completely fine, it makes sense when you see the back to back franchise qbs the Packers have been able to draft and develop. I’ve never been to a game at what should have never stopped being called Miller Park since I moved back to the WI IL border six years ago that I couldn’t move up near field level by the third or fourth inning.
Braves might be a player for a Adames/Burnes trade. Maybe send AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrep Dylan Dodd and Orlando Arcia. Top 2 pitching prospects another lefty that can start or long relief. Then Arcia and his inexpensive contract to replace Adames.
Braves might be willing to take a swing at Burnes and Adames for AJ Smith-Shawver, Hurston Waldrup, Dylan Dodd, and Orlando Arcia with his cheap contract at $2+Mil for two years left on his deal.
Easily stays in Milwaukee. Y’all funny. Think it through.
Burnes isn’t the Burnes of old. I don’t think Milwaukee fans will like the return they get for him. And Milwaukee is not keeping him. Milwaukee has no leverage and Burnes upside has petered downward. He’s basically between a #2 and #3 starter with probable innings limitations, so what would a team give up for one year of that, with the salary hit to boot?? I don’t think teams would be lined up ready to break down the door at the GM meetings in a frenzy to trade for Burnes. If I’m a team needing to trade for a starter ; I would be looking at Mr. Cease from the White Sox all the live long day.
Brewers can’t decide to contend or not. Soft rebuild and gather talent around the upcoming prospects. Trade him.
Club pissed off Burnes last off-season when they penny pinched him. No chance he would re-sign with them for 2025. So, get what you can, now or later (Trade deadline.).
In both scenarios SP will be at a premium. Atlanta has a bounty of prospects, many of whom are blocked by the likes of Olson, Acuna, Harris, Riley, Murphy etc. Ought to be a match there. Could say the same thing about the Orioles.
Not sure teams like the Yankees, Giants, Phillies or Mets have the cache of prospects to acquire Burnes.
Okay Backup….let’s stay with the rest of us on planet Earth here regarding Burnes whom you obviously think is the second coming of Cy Young……while you may think his 1 year value is worth a treasure trove of prospects from teams like the Yankees, Giants, Phillies, or Mets, potential acquiring teams might not…..after all, the odds of him electing free agency are huge so basically its 50/50 at best that you’ve got more than a 1 year rental acquisition…..that surely will temper offers from many teams unwilling to offer a “cache of prospects” for 1 year, but may open up offers from cash rich teams like the Dodgers, Red Sox, Cubs, Yankees, etc……
rocky7:
Didn’t mean to imply it would actually take a “cache” of prospects to acquire Burnes. Just stating that some teams have more depth in that department than others.
If Burnes is traded, I still believe Atlanta and/or Baltimore are the two most likely landing spots.
BTW, I do live on Panet Earth outside of Philly where anyone named Rocky is a hero.
You do it now, what good is a damn compensatory pick, and you probably would be trying to move him at the deadline and get less of a package, get the haul now, fill your rotation with some of those young bucks in the minors ready to move up, bring back Miley, and you could also save if you brought back Woody, 2024 may not be a championship year, but you never know what the motivation would be for those youngster to prove they belong, this team might surprise you.
The Houston Astros are looking for another Starter he could help as a No.3. r No.2.
You’ve seen Astros amazing pool of tradeable assets in the minor leagues?? Astros cupboard is completely bare. They are in line at the Food Bank when it comes to their dearth of tradeable prospects. They got nothing to trade for Burnes, and other teams interested in him will blow away any sort of offer Houston could put together. Sorry to burst your bubble so close to Christmas, but no Burnes in your stocking this year. No Burnes for you.