With superstar slugger Shohei Ohtani now off the board after signing on with the Dodgers, the market has seemingly begun to come into focus for center fielder Cody Bellinger, the clear #2 position player on the free agent market this offseason. According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, Bellinger and agent Scott Boras are seeking “$200MM plus” in contract talks this winter.
That Bellinger is in position to even approach that figure is nothing short of incredible given the brutal fashion his time in LA came to an end. The outfielder dealt with shoulder, rib, and leg injuries throughout the 2021 season and struggled badly when he managed to take the field that season, posting an abysmal .165/.240/.302 slash line across 350 trips to the plate that season. While he was able to avoid the injured list in 2022, the diminished results lingered as he slashed just .210/.265/.389, prompting the Dodgers to non-tender him last offseason.
Not long after being non-tendered, Bellinger took a one-year deal with the Cubs and entered the 2023 campaign hoping to rebuild his value ahead of another trip to the open market after the season. He certainly succeeded in that effort, slashing .307/.356/.525 while earning a top ten finish in NL MVP voting and the second Silver Slugger award of his career. While this new-look Bellinger came with potential red flags regarding his quality of contact in 2023, MLBTR nonetheless projected him for a twelve-year, $264MM deal in our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, the second-highest projected guarantee after Ohtani.
Since then, many of Bellinger’s potential suitors on the free agent market have gone in other directions. The Yankees landed a trio of left-handed hitting outfielders in Juan Soto, Trent Grisham, and Alex Verdugo on the trade market, seemingly leaving no room for Bellinger on their roster. Meanwhile, the Giants recently landed outfielder Jung Hoo Lee on a six-year, $113MM contract. While it’s certainly feasible that San Francisco could have the resources available to land Bellinger as well, between the club’s existing outfield logjam and need for pitching, it seems more likely that the club would pursue top arms like Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, and Shota Imanaga than double up on talent in center field with a Bellinger signing.
That’s not to say that Bellinger’s market is completely devoid of suitors, of course. The Blue Jays haven’t been shy about their pursuit of a top-of-the-market lefty slugger this offseason, and Bellinger is the clear best player available to fill that niche with both Ohtani and Soto now off the board. Given that, it’s no surprise that Heyman suggests that Toronto is “expected to be a player” for Bellinger this offseason. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale takes things a step further, suggesting that the Blue Jays could be a “favorite” for the 28-year-old’s services this winter. Looking beyond Toronto, both Heyman and Nightengale also indicate that the incumbent Cubs could be a factor in Bellinger’s market this offseason while Nightengale also suggests the Padres as a potential suitor.
Any interest from Chicago or San Diego seemingly comes with caveats, however. The Padres are reportedly facing severe financial constrains and hope to duck under the luxury tax in 2024, and committing $200MM or more to Bellinger would eat away most of the savings the club procured by dealing Soto and Grisham to the Bronx earlier this month. Meanwhile, reports from Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic indicate that the Cubs could prefer to wait out the market and see if Bellinger “falls” to them on a more palatable deal than the outfielder’s current price tag. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, have no such apparent financial restraints or reservations. Of course, it’s possible that another team in need of outfield help such as the Mariners could jump into the fray and change the outlook of Bellinger’s market as the offseason continues.
come on Blue Jays eight year 210 mil get it done
Please no. Avoid Bellinger and a Chapman reunion like the plague.
All depends on money. I’d love Chapman (at a reasonable cost) at third, move Devers to DH and trade either Yoshida or Duran. As for Bellinger, this could be a long, drawn out affair like JDM in 18. There will certainly be a suiter but the deal he ends up with will be interesting to see.
The Devers and soon-to-be Bellinger contracts will be some of the worst ever.
I think Bellinger will get something like 5/150, with mulitple opt-outs and a mutual option or buy out on that last, fifth year. I also believe he’ll have to wait until February to get the deal. He just isn’t a reliable top shelf guy. I love watching him when he’s on his game but i just feel like he’s destined to be the next Rendon, Baez and become a strike out disaster who has under reported chemical issues keeping out of the lineup.
Devers will always be underwater by stupid metrics standards due to his horrible defense but amongst the worst in baseball? He’s a hitting machine and regardless of cost, the Sales and Panda deals were far worse (Sales was already hurt and Panda – nothing needs to be said). What does make the Devers deal bad is ownership misread the market and could have signed him for much less , much earlier.
$30m? Maybe including incentives.
Jays fans are so bizarre (other than me). Chapman is great, you clowns want Biggio or Espnal at 3B?!
Chapman can’t hit his way out of a paper bag. 25M a season can be spent in a wiser manner.
I’d give him that over 11 but not 8
Sign Bo to an extension.
Exactly
If the jays give him that contract then the GM deserves to be fired. Massive overpay 8/210 lol
If Jay’s want to sign anyone they will probably have to overpay with the taxes in Canada and location.
Yup. At this point, I’d rather the jays sign Soler or JDM, put a package together for Luis Robert Jr and fill other holes internally. Barring that, I’d rather they just suck in 2024 instead of overpaying for Belli or Chappy.
He should have been fired when he proposed the Moreno trade,,too late now
That contract for Bellinger definitely seems worth it.
What is the deal with the Cubs? What a useless offseason. They sold their fans this Marquis network, saying that money would be put right back into the team. LMAO!
It’s very early
Same w Jays
Whoever gives him 200 million will regret it. Saying that I hope he signs with the Cubs.
Perfect landing spot for Bellinger. A desperate overpay to make up for the Shohei embarrassment.
If he regresses back to his Dodgers numbers, this has the makings of a Chris Davis type of situation.
That would be a huge mistake. Several down years followed by a big one right before free agency. Probably goes back to his old ways quickly. Buyer be ware.
I’m assuming you’re not a fan of Freeman (I don’t care either way) but I often thought of his contract over the past year (when these big contracts are signed) and feel like if everything happened one and certainly two years later for him in life, he would/could have been looking at something like a $250-275M deal even at the same age when he signed.
Apples and oranges anyway. Freeman is a pro and would be good value at a higher price.
Bellinger is a risk at any price.
How is it apples and oranges? I’m not even comparing Freeman to Bellinger but rather Freeman’s contract to ALL big contracts that have been signed since then. Bellinger hasn’t even signed yet so he’s not even in the equation of my comment.
And your comments that “Bellinger is a risk at any price.” really tells the world that you shouldn’t be commenting on these types of matters.
Bellinger is a cheater, Freeman plays the game clean
And that smearing of Bellinger is based on what facts?
What former Dodgers players have said.
Who? When?
How has he cheated???? I don’t recall ever hearing anything like that…
Bellinger has been a 94 wRC+ bat over the past 3 seasons even with his “great” 2023 mixed in. I’m a Cubs fan and Cody had a great 43 game stretch for the Cubs, missed a month+ and sandwhiched that hot streak with two 100 wRC+ stints. Add in the 2 previous years of him being really bad and he kinda is a risk at almost any price. The real saving grace is he can play a good CF so I think he is certainly worth 150ish to maybe 180 if the AAV can be worked down to 20ish AAV.
Hearsay then.
Ckc: prove it!
You mean Correa is a cheater and got called out by Bellinger for what he is
Exactly, I’m ALWAYS hesitant pf a guy who instantly rebounds back into form right before their next payday.
It could be nothing, but there are definitely some warning signs that Belly might turn back into a pumpkin.
He was injured…have you ever dislocated a shoulder? I have. It takes a toll on your body. Mlb network did a comparison of swings before (mvp)and after his injury and then his swing from last season. He s back! I would lock him in.
You do realize that, even though his stats improved to pre-injury, the underlying stats regressed even further.
His exit velo dropped to the lowest of his career, a full 2 mph less than either of his injury plagued seasons, which were still even with his MVP season. His barrel % also hit a career low, a full 25% less than the injury years., and his hard hit % was also a career low, by a wide margin.
His 2023 looks more like a mirage, based on the underlying stats, than a return to his perennial All Star self.
The removal of the shift is changing the dynamic of the game. Players can go back to shooting the gap vs aiming for the fence now.
Bellinger had one of the best two strike approaches in baseball and sacrificed power for contact.
Players like Hayward also resurged with the removal as they could go back to hitting the way they did pre shift.
So we really need more game data to see the over all effect going forward. There is nothing wrong with having some hitters going to hitting vs slugging. Tony Gwinn got to the hall that way and the shift would have nixed it.
Belligner still didnt play a full season with the cubs.
Freeman continues to play well consistantly throughout his career. Bellinger has not.
CFS-Tony Gwynn would have been a HOF hitter shift or not.He was the same as Rod Carew,both guys who would have hit 330 anytime anywhere.
@piratesfan yeah agreed
If you look at the underlying stats across the board it isn’t all that bad but certainly not close to his MVP year but still good.
If you mostly look at what happened after the allstar break he looks much closer to the MVP player than not. I’m not sure what the advanced stats look like in half season comparisons. but just based on the surface stats I would guess they look at lease somewhat better.
the 2nd half is likely why he will get paid out if teams are convinced he is reasonably healthy.
That much money is definitely not worth the risk… come on owners evaluate the players don’t just throw money that cripples the team down the road!
Exactly. It’s not hard to imagine Bellinger reverting back to sucking.
Not necessarily. While that does happen, Bellinger’s situation is colored by some injuries (including a shoulder) that messed up his swing. After some healing and adjustments, his swing is in a much better place now.
He had those down years just before free agency. So I doubt it’s “he played well because of free agency” more so, he’s made adjustments and it showed.
his hitting profile was completely different than his awesome years on the dodgers, he was good but he wasn’t ‘back’
100% spot on. I wouldn’t give Bellinger a multi year deal. Unless you pull a Boras on Boras. Boras likes to have contract outs for his players after they come off good years. Put contract outs in any long term deal for the team when Bellinger has one of his many bad years.
I know money has been flying around and I’m not one of those that barks “that’s too much” on every contract but this really seems like a stretch for him.
Yeah I pretty squarely fall into the “don’t let the owners just pocket the profit” mindset. But predicting 12 yrs for Bellie feels wild to me. I could see a team giving him 20-25/yr over 7/8 years though. So maybe he could get 200m. He is only 28.
No doubt, he’s going to get PAID. And candidly, there are a LOT of pros for him. Like you say, he is YOUNG. He has won an MVP. He is a left handed bat. And candidly, on a $200M contract, he would only need to do what he did last year or even something a little less for the next 5 years (very PRIME years for an OF), and he probably comes close to earning the contract. And he has shown he can potentially be better though that’s a been a long time. Bottom line, this is as much or a high risk/high reward situation I can recall for a first tier free agent.
Yeah God forbid an owner of a company made any money. Only employees are allowed to profit. Get out of here with your communist nonsense.
You’d prefer fascist?
Sad thing about fascists is that they are generally too dumb to know they are fascist.
In what planet do you think employees make more money than employers?
If I was a GM, it’d be the length of the Bellie contract that would terrify me. I’d rather massively overpay for a year, and tack on a reasonable player option for the second year. If he plays well, I have him for a year, with the opportunity to work out a longer deal. If he tanks, he assuredly opts in on year 2; but 2 years probably doesn’t ruin my ability to build a team. I just can’t imagine gambling which CB you’re going to get for a decade.
Of course he probably wouldn’t have any interest in a short deal.
Not sure what your getting with him. Good luck with that
this is a rumor released by boras camp since its not moving as fast as he’d like. 200 mil is too much. id seem him make a big under that as an overpay
Too inconsistent to give a long term contract to at 200 mil+. His real value is probably around that 5 year 100 million mark. I wouldn’t risk any more than that to Bellinger. Could either be a “steal” or one of the worst contracts in baseball. I can see the Red Sox or Phillies signing him
Barring a trade the Red Sox have Duran, Yoshida, Rafael, Abreu and O’Neill. They may add a vet but their primary need is pitching across the board.
@Goose I believe that they are going to move Yoshida to DH, to make room for Bellinger. Improves the defense drastically
Boras notably didn’t state length of contract. Could be 2 /200. Sources of contention with that harper wanting an extension only a few years into a long term deal too.
Too much
Oh Bellinger that was so funny. I think you’d make more than that as a stand up comedian.
Oh Bellinger that was so funny. I think you’d make more as a stand up comedian! Now make me laugh some more!
Not worth half of that. Ellsbury 2.0
The is one of the more obvious potential disaster contracts in recent years
Yes. Ohtani for starts and the contract the giants gave out will be worse than both
I don’t know about a DH (ohtani) being worth $46 million/year, but as a baseball fan I hope he recovers and pitches well, despite disliking the West coast Yankees. Course, merchandise sales may make up for a big part of that.
The new giants signing.. probably can’t expect much power, but I’d better on decent defense and an above average bat. And that should be enough for 3+ war, meaning his contract should be fair and has some chance of being a bargain if he’s better than expected. And they’ll avoid the decline phase since he’s only 25.
I just checked, and steamer (some projection system I don’t usually watch) projects him at 116 wRC+ and 3.4 war. I’d take that, though that isn’t a star. Projection systems try to be conservative, though.
It’s a power and speed league he lacks both. If he’s not carrying an obp close to 400 – he won’t hit that 116
Not worth the risk.
The red flags are a-blowin’ in the wind right now, but there’s a big market team out there somewhere that, years from now, will need an injury-ridden, 35 year-old Bellinger batting .210 while making $35 million a year.
Yeah nobody is going to want a player who is so obviously prone to having his leg broken and his shoulder dislocated.
No question Blue that happened. Glad he had a decent year in Chicago. However, a long term contract for $200 million + is insane. If someone wants to pay it great but you wouldn’t and I know I wouldn’t, so there is that.
Well right, I don’t have $200m and don’t even own a baseball team. The people who do will decide what’s sane.
Which is when Cashman will trade for him letting the signing team off the hook.
He just screams Jason Werth 2.0.
In a realistic/honest world, I’d give him like 2 years/$50M w/ a club option for 2 years/$54M, followed by a club option at 2 years/$58M, followed by a club option at 2 years/$62M or a player option for 6 years/$120M.
dying laughing at the concept of the Mariners disrupting the hitting market with their moves this off season
just, no
He’ll get the 200MM and then some.
He might even be worth it.
I am guessing he cut back on his “recreational activities” last year and we saw better numbers. He gets paid I bet the chimney is smoking again….
🙁
Pass.
HARD pass for me. He *could* perform well and have that contract look like a steal; but the odds seem just as likely that he will end up a middling, overpaid Boras client with too many years committed to him.
I don’t like this free-agent market at all, including much of the top-end talent. Ohtani is a unicorn and his contract goes beyond his on-field contributions that are more difficult for fans to assess. I have issues with much of this market, from Lee, to Bellinger, to Yamamoto, to Snell and likely Montgomery. It doesn’t mean some won’t be good, but the prices and years in this inflated market give me pause. A lot of pause! Sometimes sitting out a specific free agent market, or focusing on some of the lower-cost talent, is the best tactic. This free-agent market may become known as the buyers’-remorse market within a few months to a few short years.
Yeah, I could see that as well. The problem is that Cashman has taken that approach with every FA market for the past decade, with only a few exceptions, and it led to the necessary acquisitions of Soto and Yamamoto.
It’s why I always say that the Yankees attempts at saving money end up costing them just as much, but for the wrong (or less productive) personnel. Now they have four RFers, but at least the offense should be better….
I hope Boston stays away, the money is better spent on Yamamoto or Snell, unless Bellinger is willing to do a 1 or 2 yr deal. 2/60 Let the man prove he’s back would be a smart move if he believes in himself. If he signs long term I think that’s a sign Cody doesn’t believe in his 2023 and wants guaranteed money at a lower AAV.
He’s Kris Bryant 2.0
Yes. Also perfect for Rockies thin air if they can find the money. You look real good in home games
And awful on the road, hence why you don’t sign him
I smell Rendon.
Ehh, I think Rendon just isn’t good anymore even if he tried. Bellinger seems to at least be able to put up a decent season still
It only takes one crazy owner.
Arte Moreno:
Big market owner who constantly overrides his GM’s and loves to sign bats but not pitchers.
I’m shocked it hadn’t happened already. This will be the perfect contract to complement then replace Rendon’s.
He’s around 50/50. Problem is all the bad signings are most recent. They need pitching more then anything, but they won’t do it.
Good:
Bobby Abreu
Vlad Guerrero
Tori Hunter
Re-sign: Mike Trout
Bad:
Gary Matthews Jr.
Albert Pujols
Josh Hamilton
Anthony Rendon
Horrific Trade:
Napoli for Vernon Wells (pop up king)
All the good other than the Trout extension came from the front office he inherited. So did a good farm and tons of talent; including the scouts that pulled off Trout, Grichuk, Skaggs draft.
All of the bad has come since Arte replaced that good front office and let it get surpassed on all aspects.
So until Arte goes, there’s no reason to expect anything good.
There was a huge range in the contract estimates for Bellinger, so it figures Boras would let him sit on the market and try to extract maximum $. They won’t be able to use the Yankees for leverage this time. He’ll probably find some team to bid against itself in any case.
What team will they be able to leverage?
With very few teams left that can afford that kind of risk, i see Bellinger take a 4/100 deal with an opt out after 1 yr and if he puts together another very good year he and Soto will be top 2 lefty hitters as free agents for 2025 and then Bellinger can get 8/200-240 deal he seeks. Both are Boras clients going to drag their free agency until mid January to get the best deal possible
Coatie Borasinger will put some fool team in a straitjacket.
The Mariners??? Yeah right! Will never happen in the dipoto era he will only pay for his beloved pitching.
I don’t understand the hate for Belli. Guy was forced to play through injury because of his elite defense. He’s a good glove defender at two positions including a premium, in center field. He changed his approach last year and was the second best hitter with two strikes! Go back to the cubs with your same hitting coach you’ve had for years and prove people wrong.
$200 million? Sure, but would you mind if we deferred 96% of it until after the zombie apocalypse?
I could see a 3 year big money contract. Unless someone is REALLY desperate, I don’t see big money for long term. He is trying to pull the ‘Aaron Judge’. Amazing he had a great and healthy year in his free agent year.
Boras will keep this going until February, when some owner will panic about not having done enough in the offseason. Then Bellinger will get his $200 million. The contract will be riskier than a D-rated junk bond, but somebody will pay the money.
Much as I hate to agree with Heyman and Nightengale, Toronto and Chicago do seem like the two likeliest suckers, er buyers.
Probably Toronto. Cubs had the Bellinger experience last year. Given its Boras that’s negotiating I doubt he’s back in Chicago unless he’s still available third week of March. Then will be either another 1 year deal or maybe four with an opt out after year one.
I’m also seeking $200MM
I’m seeking $700,000,001‼️
If it was my money, Bellinger wouldn’t get that much, if any.
But it isn’t.
So I have to hope Jays management sees things my way!
I’d go 8/$200 million, not more.
8 years, forget it. Cubs have been there, done that with Soriano. I want the Cubs to resign Bellinger, but not for 8 years.
That being said, he’ll get 200 million plus. Someone will bite.
Don’t forget Jason Heyward….
5-120 with opt out in year 2?
Hard to go higher after only one rebound year….. show some control!
The greatest part of the Giants signing Lee was that it means they won’t be in on Belli the head case…I hope.
Cody should be smart, take a short contract with the Cubs with an opt-out after a year, and retest the market if he has another solid season. I personally think last year should be closer to his norm and not the seasons affected by injury.
If Cody does take a 1 yr prove it deal there will be too many suitors so its not happening . Boras at a minimum will want some kind of protection like 4-5 yr deal at $22-25 million with opt out after year 1 and 3. If he has a great year he opts out, if he sucks you’re screwed with him for 4-5 yrs
Why would too many suitors be a bad thing? In that case Boras could have teams bidding against one another on literally a one year deal where he could probably get upwards of 30m
200 million for .260 BA 20 HR 150 SO and to disappear in the postseason.
Good luck lol.
Cody is a free agent in a perfect year for him to maximize his financial goals. So much stupid money floating around, I will be shocked if he doesn’t receive an excess of $200 million.
Ohtani is a very different case than anyone else because of his huge marketability. He also gives a huge boost in Japanese marketability for the team itself.
The Mets, Padres, and Rangers aren’t spending like drunken sailors this year. Let’s see how much media market revenues concerns affect the rest of the market. Teams are offloading salaries via trade instead of loading up on free agents. I bet most of these guys take less than projected when its all said and done.
it’s really slow when this is news. lol
A lot of potential landing spots are gone.
Yankees made two moves. Giants snagged Lee. Dodgers got Margot.
Blue Jays, Cubs, Angels?
I love Bellinger’s glove and would like to see Trout in right and DH to keep him fresh. But not at any price approaching $200 million.
The safe bet seems Toronto. They need a solid lefty bat…But has Arte gotten therapy for his “overpayforhitter-itis?”
It’s been awhile since a Hamilton or Pinole or Upton deal has been done. I hope for Angel fans that doesn’t happen again.
Pujols* damn that auto-correct
Since then we’ve had Rendon. And to lesser degrees Matt Harvey and others.
Tyker Anderson, Aaron Loup, Ryan Tepera all at least made sense but imploded. A lack of coaching and video might’ve contributed on those fronts.
But Drury and Esteves were fine.
do none of these teams remember 2020-22
Tigers will sign him for their big addition to the offense and trade Matt Manning, a good low minors pitcher and Parker Meadows to SD for Dylan Lesko and Jackson Merrill. Fills needs for both teams.
Dare to dream I guess.
I was bored. It would never happen on a number of fronts.
I don’t mean to be a jerk, Nick, but my response to this is that water is wet…the sky is blue…I mean, this is as obvious as anything can be. In fact, it wouldn’t even shock me if Boras had initially asked for 300M over 10 years. Belli is only 28. Now, I don’t expect anyone will sign him for that much. But it will easily top 200M. If he didn’t have those 2 years where he was unplayable, I’d be interested. But I’d pass because I never heard any injuries being blamed for his awful seasons except now that he’s a FA. I figured it had more to do with his knowing what pitches were coming in 2017 with LA, when many teams – not just the Astros – were using the video room to cheat. That said, I can’t explain his comeback with the Cubs, so maybe his shoulder injury was making him have bad swing planes.
It was talked about ad nauseum for the last 3 years while he playing injured and after the dodgers non tendered him and the cubs signed him to a 1 year deal. And all season while he was with the cubs.
Where you been?
Nearly everyone predicted he’d be a super late signing because he over valued himself, and nearly everyone is right.
It’s not super late yet
He also obviously doesn’t have a market at his price at the moment, which is why Boras “leaked” this story to Heyman.
It’s not super late or even late. He’ll get his 200+MM sometime in January.
Good luck with that ambition.
[Charlie Murphy gif]
Advice to owners and GMs. When Boras sends that propaganda document spelling out how Bellinger is better than Ken Griffey Jr, in his prime….don’t open it. Just throw it in the garbage can, and build your team with no thoughts of signing him.
The Jays will end up with Bellinger the same way the Red Sox ended up with Trevor Story – an appeasement.
$200 mil for someone who had minor league numbers 2 years in a row? Sheesh.
We should have learned to hit a baseball!
Hahahaha I am happy the Astros have Chas McCormick in arb year 1
8 for 210 let’s go jays
4/80 or let someone else live with the regret
Couldn’t that be any/every FA?? That’s what makes it fun!
A contract of this magnitude is not happening unless Scott Boras can get the Blue Jays bidding against themselves like he did with the Texas Rangers during A-Rod’s first free agent deal. No team is likely to be had again in such a manner, least of all MLB’s most wealthy corporate owned team in Toronto.
He will go right back to 210/265/380 as soon as he signs the deal.
How did I know that this was going to be Jon Heyman.. I swear the dude just makes his own news whenever things slow down
He’s a mouthpiece for the Boras Corp. That’s his role.
He can seek whatever he wants but I also want a goose that poops out golden eggs, both of us are going to be disappointed.
I wanted Jennifer Lawrence to have a week-long romantic romp in Europe with me. Totally crushed me that it didn’t happen. So I empathize with Mr. Boras.
I’m a little tired of these teams with these unlimited payrolls. There needs to be a better way of dealing with this.
There is no world where Bellinger is 2/3 the value of Bryce Harper.
The Cubs like to work from CBA to CBA – look how few guaranteed contracts they have past 2027, I think it’s just Swanson. My speculation is that their offer is 5/145 slightly backloaded and they’ve told Boras that when he’s done flirting with Toronto and San Francisco to come back and have Bellinger sign it
I could see that contract happening, possible opt outs after years 2 and 3
I don’t see the opt-out after year 2, unless it’s a deal like Cole’s where the team can override the player by adding to the deal. So 5/145, or if Bellinger opts out after year 2 the Cubs can either walk away or convert it to 7/200.
Actually I think the Cubs told Cody go get your best offer and get back to us so we can match.
Cody’s problem is he still probably hasn’t gotten an offer that exceeds what the Cubs likely proposed.
Yes cubs gonna wait on every player then scrape the bottom of the bucket
Bellinger has way too much talent to have been as bad as he was for 3 seasons. Injury was not the only reason. Hard to trust that kind of player with a $200+ million commitment despite having Hall of Fame ability.
Belli 7/170 with an opt out is the best I can see. $200MM seems impossible at this point.
I always thought the 12/264 was ridiculous.
Yeah…..let us think about that for a…CLICK
Hahabab good luck
“Cody Bellinger Reportedly Seeking $200MM Or More In Free Agency”
And I’m seeking to date Taylor Swift and have her write a song about me after I break up with her… Bellinger is gonna be left without a chair when the music stop.
I want ZERO part of him as a Yankees fan. Free agency is about hedging your bets. You know you’re more than likely going to overpay…..but do it for a guy who will at least live up to some of the deal. Bellinger couldn’t hit a beach ball with a snow shovel for two years. Comes back and posts a solid year when it’s time to get paid? No for me.
Yankees already got a lefty bat in Soto and a GG CF in Grisham. Their focus should be a starting pitcher, not another outfielder
I bet someone will sign him to one too, or something close to that value.
As A Jay’s fan please no. Too Risky without the reward potential.
Before Jed Hoyer passed away, I was guessing he’d offer Cody 4 yrs and 120 million. Now that crickets are running the Cubs front office, maybe they could bring back Edwin Rios to give them the star-power they deserve.
Forgot about Rios. With Ohtani signed, onceBellinger comes off the board the Rios market should heat up!
Cubs are stupid if they didn’t just call Boras and say “10 years 200 million right now, suite on all road series, 11th year player option with no buy out.”
From watching Bellinger perform in 2023, he looked to have purposely cut down on the ferocious hacks that many young fans seem to love so much. He decided to aim for more contact rather than “sexy” statcast readings, and it worked.
I’m as skeptical as anyone when a player has a career year right before free agency, but Bellinger looked like a new player in 2023. I don’t think he gets the deal he’s looking for, but the Giants gave an unproven Korean player $113 million, so you never know.
Cub fan here. I watched alot of belli last season and I’ll say this. He is easily worth that contract based on what he did last year. People I think sleep on his defense and running ability a bit. He is so smooth at 1B and CF defensively. He was fun to watch out there. Smart base runner as well. He swiped 20 bags last year. He missed 35 games as well. His numbers would have been even better. Now can 34 year old Bellinger put up those numbers? I doubt it. It’s a risky signing. Could be a Chris Davis situation after just 2 years. But great guy and attitude. And he really was a team guy too. Could have been all about himself last year but he was a great team guy and carried the cubs all season.
There was no player I wanted up in a big situation. He was phenomenal with 2 strikes
Ya that was another thing huh. I wanna say his two strike average was like 110 points than league average. Every AB he had was impressive in a way. Works deep counts consistently
It was but it came with an expected (based on quality of contact) performance well BELOW average. It was pure luck.
Also as A Jay’s fan Varsho as bad of a bat he is is the best defensive CF in the game and getting Belli reduces varshos entire value
I don’t think Bellinger is going to do as well as expected before the offseason began. If he’s confident in his abilities, he may wind up pivoting to a first time Correa-like Twins contract.
There’s plenty of reason to be skeptical of the results he had last year with poor hard hit rates and expected stats significantly lower than actual.
I’m guessing that someone will offer five years at $165M and consider it cheap.
Right. That’s exactly his strategy.
He’s likely to be hitting about 110 OPS+ in a couple years with defense regressing towards the mean. Probably not enough power for a corner outfield position in a less hitter-friendly park. As long as the terms aren’t for too long and are backloaded with opt-outs it should be fine.
Contract won’t be a disaster but for mid-market teams it could certainly be a drag.
Good comment. If he keeps to the batted ball profile from last year, he’s going to regress a bit, although not to the 2021/22 level. Then you are asking if he’s worth that kind of money.
Which is still a hell of a lot better than that nightmarish stretch that was 2021-2022.
Knew this was the case. I was thinking he’d go for 250 if he can get it. And more.
My thoughts – With his age and resurgence. That’s worth at least 4 seasons max. And of course nowadays teams have to pay beyond that when the player has down seasons. So that ups it to six or seven.
So I’m thinking 7 seasons Max. 150 mil Total. Then spread it out. And add that stupid buyout to squeeze more money for the player. And take it to 22.5 total. 7.5 buyout with a 22.5 option. Total contract 8 – 172.5 or 7-150 buyout 7.5
It’s a little funny that so many people express concern about his quality of contact, focusing on EV and hard hit rates, when his overall contact numbers increased, he whiffed far less, and he figured out how to do real damage with breaking and off-speed stuff while also damaging fastballs.
Worth noting he saw far fewer fastballs than many—if not most—of the star hitters. EV and hard hit% should be expected to be lower.
Easy to see him being the steal of the offseason among free agent hitters.
With an inconsistent track record, that’s a significant risk for any team. He may have misjudged his market, and I could see a 1/20 deal to firmly establish his value. Any team committing 200m at this point would be crazy. He is literally one season removed from two awful seasons.
The Cubs will easily give him 3 years, it fits perfectly with the rest of their guaranteed contracts, runs out when the CBA runs out, and gives their second set of outfield prospects beyond Crow-Armstrong such as Canario, Alcantara, and Cassie time to grow into starting roles.
They would probably even give him 5 years. But I see no way that they would give even the disasterous 7/186 they gave Jason Heyward.
I am hopeful that both Hoyer and Ricketts learned a lot from the mistake they made with Heyward. I wouldn’t sign anyone for over 4 years.
Good points, and he also may fit there the best too.
Say no to crack.
BE YE WARNED
The Dodgers should tell ohtani (worst contract of all time) that the previous Dodgers owner was from an Italian American family and the “organization” is still on good terms with the “family” and they expect immediate MVPs from ohtani.
He’s got no market, and rightfully so. He was awful for years in LA. People don’t forget Chris Davis. Wouldn’t be surprised if he gets 1 or 2 years.
Hopefully Heyman doesn’t write another ridiculous article complaining about how it’s bad for baseball if Bellinger signs with the Jays….
The Blue Jays already have the gluttonous slob guerrero jr to worry about. 1 notable season to his name. Just a vastly overrated single-season flash in the pan- and yet the Blue Jays will probably still be stupid enough to resign him.
This has aged poorly. Like I knew it would.
I really couldnt imagine a team giving bellinger near $200m a couple of months ago, but money is flying this offseason, and there are a few quality teams desperate for offense.
The RSN debacle is killing everyone else.
RSN debacle? Have you noticed the increases in salaries this offseason including by teams that have completely lost their RSN?
If the Mets land Yamamoto, I’d expect they at least kick the tires on Bellinger. Could overpay for a short term deal or spread it out over 5-7 years since he’s not too old yet. Makes sense as someone who could rotate through 1B/DH/CF, providing insurance if Nimmo misses time or Alonso doesn’t resign.
I get the hesitation from some fans but in another lens, here’s someone who was a perennial mvp candidate, then struggled through a series of tough injuries, then went back to mvp candidate once healthy. That from someone who can play good cf defense is worth a massive payday
MLB trade rumors predicted 12 years for $268 million?! I would still find it astonishing if somebody gives him that kind of a deal. The guy is injury prone and inconsistent. I’m guilty of thinking contracts should make sense.
Does any fanbase really want this guy?(especially at the supposed numbers being thrown around)
Angels always need pitching so he probably signs with them since the Dodgers got Ohtani and Arte needs revenge!
$200 million for one really good year after 3 horrible ones lol. Someone will be stupid enough to give him more than that and he will go back to being a ,200 hitter with 200 strikeouts a year. Good luck Giants I hope it’s you.
I agree with the people suggesting to avoid Bellinger (and Chapman). There is way too much risk with both of them, and both will end up being greatly overpaid. They’re both still great defensively, but have major red flags with the bat. Whoever signs either of them may well end up with a Jason Heyward type scenario with the Cubs (paying a huge amount of money for good defense and mediocre-at-best offense).
@HBan22 Well said. $200m is what you pay for a 28 yo CFer humming along at a 4-win clip, not a guy who just had his first 4-win season since his lucky year, his freak year really in 2019.
The Giants are playing chess not checkers. Next big offensive move is signing Soto next off season, so no room for Bellinger. As Giants fans, we are fine with this, as well as “losing out” on Judge, Correa and ohtani. By 2025, the Giants will be equally as good as the dodgers.
Crack is whack!!!
You would know.
There go the Mariners chances. Sigh.l.
I wonder how well Bellinger would do as a two way player? Maybe that’s the way to “pitch” him to Arte Moreno❓
Disaster waiting to happen teams should chuckle at 200+. Then again 200M doesn’t mean as much as it did when Carl Crawford got that deal. Anybody who turned in a decent season on a contract year gets 20M+ AAV like candy. God I hate inflation.
I would be so nervous to sign someone who played that poorly for 3 years prior compared to last seasons output. No thanks….
2 years. In 2020 he did decently. 112 OPS+. 1.5 WAR in a 60 game season. On pace for a 4 WAR season in 162 games.
In 2023 he was finally healthy. He shortened his swing to make the shoulder less of an issue, decreased his power some but increased his contact and batting average, and cut his strike out rate nearly in half.
I guess he wants to sit out for a season!?
Just remember, kids. .165 just two years ago.
I can’t help but acknowledge improvements when they’re present.
Yeah me too.
Maybe on a plane heading to Toronto….
I don’t understand the hate for Bellinger
We celebrate players with 1 or 2 tools like Pete Alonso or Kyle Schwarber. Players who will win you zero games with their glove, arm or legs
Bellinger can win you games with arm, glove, legs, power and recently contact. He was injured. Baseball is not a game of simply hitting the ball far
Bellinger is in his prime and has hardware on his mantle. Respect it
Belli has been rated only a 3 out of 10 on MLB statcast speed.
In 75th percentile.
baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/cody-bellinge…
Why troll with lies when it’s so easy to look up.
Flagged and muted.
no one cares
All you gotta do is open up his baseball reference page and see from 2020-2022 he was dog crap that shows he did not do much of anything to contribute winning games. 3 straight years of some of the time pest offensive production amongst full time players.
The hate is justified. He just went all out for a contract last year. How many times have we seen that song and dance. He will be back to hitting .200 with a horrible OBP/OPS as soon as the ink on the contract dries.
Woah my iPhone butchered that. It was supposed to read 3 straight years of some of the worst offensive production amongst full time players.
I don’t see any hate.
The opposite of smart and reasonable risk isn’t hate.
I don’t think anybody is hating Bellinger. They’re hating the prospect of a long-term contract based on his track record. Is he talented? Of course. Is he a high risk investment? Absolutely, positively. The track record is the track record. What MLBTR suggests of a 12 year $268 mil. deal is ludicrous. I’m not saying some team out there won’t do it. Most of us are saying we wouldn’t want our teams to do it. Three or four years at 25 to 30 mil, sure. In my mind, five years would be the absolute maximum.
All the teams that want him can thank the Giants for the huge overpay on Lee. I was predicting it would drive Belli up over 200.
Mlbtr predicted $254 million. Not a big surprise that Bellinger is asking for over $200 million.
Great defender, but also capable of Grisham stats as a hitter
Also capable of MVP stats as a hitter.
Regret, that isnword i would use for whomever signs CB at 150 mil or more. 6 for 120 is the hugest anyone should go
The Giants signed an inferior CF for almost that. Bellinger gets more than some slap hitting Jackie Bradley knockoff.
Bellinger last few seasons with the dodgers are huge red flags. No way I am paying 200 M for him. I think that is a giant overpay. I think you could spend that money in other places and be a lot safer in the long run.
Dear God – pls don’t let the Blue Jays be the sad sack club who ends up saddled by what brutal contract this guy ends up putting his signature on.
Heyman with a non-rumor rumor. Bellinger has been asking for 10 years and over $250 according to other reports on this site.
IMO, Yankees should be all in on Bellinger. Trade Rizzo, Torres, DJL, and Stanton. Sign Chapman and Bellinger.
LF Verdugo
CF Judge/ The Martian
RF Soto
3B Chapman
SS Pereza
2B Volpe
1B Bellinger
C Wells
DH Judge/Soto and Possibly sign Michael Brantley.
Someone looking like Chapman was on a flight to New York today…
If im CHC, i offer Bellinger 6 years, $165M with a club option at $20M and a $10M buyout for year 7, that gets him to $175M. $27.5M AAV, and that’s it. Take it or leave it.
Love the guy and what he did for us last year but just don’t, Cubs. Please let someone else overpay Boras. Pitchers adjusted to him in Sep and he was overwhelmed.
Boras in full pimp mode. $100/4..
If a team gives him $200 million then that GM will be fired a year later. This guy will go back to hitting 240 or 260. Amazing how a guy is horrible for two years, bounces back in a free agency year and is supposed to get paid like the 2 previous years didn’t happen.
If that’s the case…please please please Jays sign him… we need to see a new front office after their performance last year… we are tired of the Shapkins show….
This has Ross Atkins trying to do something. He should offer Bichette if he is going sign anyone for this amount. Bichette probably wants more now. Atkins missed their chance to sign him early like Well run teams are doing.
Wrigley field is rated #1 most expensive ballpark to attend for a ball game and you mean to tell me we gotta wait and hope Bellingers price comes down before we are in on him? This is getting ridiculous 4th richest team in baseball, and we are operating like a small market team. Cubs usually spend big money per season but they don’t ever gamble on an elite level contract. We are always bargain shopping so essentially we have a bunch of 10-20 million dollar a yr guys who are mostly average-good but we don’t have any prized stallions. We have 3 10 million dollar contracts that are just average players instead of one 30 million dollar stud, which is in return also screwing us cause then there’s no room for our younger players to come up because we are financially committed to this turd. @TrashHeapingHoyer give me a call I’m sick of your crap. If you are gonna have the audacity to be the most expensive ballpark in the world to attend a game at then start bringing in some elite players
I question the validity of your most expensive statement, but even granting that as true…simple solution, don’t go. If people stop paying stupid prices for things, they won’t be able to charge them.
100% correct. The prices of everything MLB-related are insane. For example; I like the Cubs City Connect unis and was looking at buying a jersey. The cheapest I could find for an on-field jersey was freakin’ $379 USD. No damn way I’m paying that for a Nike jersey, especially one made by slave-labor. The sooner fans stop paying outrageous prices for MLB merch, the better.
Yeah.
For Bellingers’s sake—— unfortunately I believe he hasn’t proved himself enough after just one comeback year, free of injury, to get a multi-year contract over $200 million.
I can see a small multi-year deal, (1-2 yrs with an opt out/ opt-in clause), Ladened with incentives that could push his AAV up in yearly salary—— comparable to the $200 million he’s asking for.
Then renegotiating the longer term — higher salary contract after showing he’s definitely back as his star studded self he originally was with the Dodgers.
Pirates, GO hahaha… more day dreaming.
Pirates locked up Reynolds for 8 more years at $100m Bellinger had twice the performance (+/-) and can play a position of severe need. Getting Bellinger at about twice as much ~200m for 8 years of control makes sense assuming Bellinger decent at first base.
not going to happen but i’ll try to rationalize it for a bit longer. I would guess he could get closer to 30m AAV probably closer to 35m if it wasn’t for ’21/22.
Cubs are taking the come to Butthead free agent strategy: hoping Bellinger falls back to them on a team friendly approach. The Maddux-Rizzo approach to retaining incumbent players. Believe the last vet the Cubs retained was Bill Bonham.
Happy to see that Cody Bellinger was able to resuscitate his career in Chicago. It must be said, however, any team that gives him over $200 million on a long term contract will rue the day.
He was terrific 2017-2019. Then he got injured. After a year of recovery in 2021, he was so bad in 2022 that the Dodgers had to let him go.
Give him a three year contract for say $60 million and pray.
Seems exactly like the type of player/move the Angels make
Lol. That will quickly become the worst contract in the game.
Carlos Correa is on line 1
I wouldn’t give him $200 million but something like 2/$52 million would work! He’d be 30 and if he regains his past superstar status then would get paid a 7/ $180
12 years? A 1 year prove it deal turns in to 12 years because they “suspectedly” proved it?
Wouldn’t a 4-5 year contract be what a 1 yr prove it deal gets you? Maybe 6/7 because injuries(as noted) is what caused a decline?
Yikes. Don’t look behind the stats-statcast. Reverse splits, lowest EV, barrels, and lowest k pct for his career. Bottom 10pct the previous 2 seasons. 12 years sounds like 10years commitment to0 many that will be excruciating watching a team manage. What GM wants to be fired in 4years?
Would it be foolishness or desperation by any team willing to go to $200m given the softness of his numbers and that he’s had one good year since 2019—and it was a good year, hardly a great year
One good season in his last four, and no better than his 2017-2018 origins.
$200m should be the current cost of signing a 28 year old as if he was a solid 4 win guy, instead of a guy whose career went completely off the rails after 2019 and just had one good but suspect 2023.
$200m is a misunderstanding of how to apportion risk and how to apportion offensive value on the field when you can sign someone like Kiermaier for a 13m AAV on a short deal in CF and get offense on the corners. $200m is what you’d pay for 4 or 5 seasons each for a couple of corner OFers with a couple of AS appearances a few years ago plus Kiermaier in CF.
—I’m still waiting for the smart team who puts a 20 year old sprinter in CF for $800k and suffers two miserable PA a game from him before employing an offensive substitute in the 6th inning on that pushes that CF to the bench and moves your better-fielding corner OFer into CF.
Tell me that isn’t a valid experiment for a team with no money but an outside shot at 84 wins, in the era of the 26-man roster.
If I could play baseball I’d accept the bare minimum teams are required to pay a player. Mostly because I’d only play for my favorite team.
This is a very risky amount of money for one great contract year performance. It seems most of these types of deals end up failing.
“Meanwhile” needs to be at the start of the sentence, NOT the middle. How do you get this right earlier in the article and then screw it up at the end?
You can use it in the middle of a sentence, meanwhile, it should be used within parenthetical commas.
It’s a bad idea. You needlessly break up the flow of your sentence.
Well, sure, I’m just not sure he’s going to play the 78 years of the full $200M contract.