The Dodgers’ acquisition of Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot from the Rays was contingent upon the former agreeing to a contract extension, and a new deal between Glasnow and L.A. is now nearly complete. The Wasserman client will reportedly earn an additional $110MM over four years on top of the $25MM he’d been slated to earn. Glasnow will earn $90MM from 2025-27, and the Dodgers hold a $30MM club option on the 2028 season. If they decline their end, Glasnow has a $20MM player option (thus accounting for the $110MM in guaranteed new money). There’s no deferred money on the contract, which will be considered a five-year, $135MM deal for luxury tax purposes (equating to a $27MM per year hit).
Glasnow, 30, stands as the first notable starting pitching upgrade the Dodgers have made this offseason. His acquisition gives them a top-of-the-rotation talent to bolster the roster — albeit one who’s spent more time on the injured list than the active roster in his career. Last season’s 21 starts and 120 innings were both career-high marks for the 6’8″ right-hander, who has missed time due to Tommy John surgery, a forearm strain, an elbow strain and a significant oblique strain that kept him out for two months to begin the 2023 season.
When he’s been healthy, however, Glasnow has been nothing short of excellent. Since being traded from the Pirates, his original organization, to the Rays in the 2018 Chris Archer heist, Glasnow has worked to a 3.20 earned run average, fanned an enormous 34.1% of his opponents and coupled that with a sharp 7.8% walk rate. He’s long had better-than-average grounder rates, but last year’s 52.1% mark was a career-best. He also notched a huge 16.5% swinging-strike rate that ranked second among all pitchers with at least 100 innings.
It’s a considerable bet to make on a pitcher who’s never topped 120 innings — easily the largest contract ever for anyone with such a limited track record of durability. There is, of course, a lot more nuance to Glasnow’s injury history than that 120 number, which MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes outlined in an article this afternoon for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. By the way, if you sign up for Front Office, we’ll be happy to send you any recent articles.
The four-year, $110MM in new money and effective five-year, $135MM term of Glasnow’s contract (for luxury tax purposes) roughly fall in line with previous extensions for high-end pitchers with injury concerns. Jacob deGrom inked a four-year, $120.5MM extension several years ago (prior to opting out and signing with the Rangers), and the contract also generally aligns with the five-year, $145MM term on Chris Sale’s Red Sox extensions. Certainly, the Dodgers will be hoping for better results from their own investment.
The rotation in Los Angeles is slated to consist of Glasnow, Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller, at present. Emmet Sheehan is likely in line for the fourth spot, while Gavin Stone, Michael Grove, Ryan Yarbrough and others battle it out for the fifth spot on the staff. Of course, L.A. is widely expected to continue adding to the starting five, with reported targets including free agents Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Lucas Giolito, in addition to trade target Dylan Cease. It stands to reason there are other pitchers in both markets currently being eyed by president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, GM Brandon Gomes and the Dodger front office.
From a payroll perspective, the Dodgers were already squarely into luxury-tax territory, sitting at a projected $251MM, per Roster Resource. Adding an additional $2MM to account for the new tax hit on Glasnow will push them up to about $253MM, which places them $4MM shy of the second tier of penalty.
The Dodgers’ bottom-line payroll is another story entirely, thanks not only the $680MM in deferred money on Shohei Ohtani’s contract but also the $115MM in deferred money on Mookie Betts’ 12-year deal and the $57MM in deferrals on Freddie Freeman’s six-year contract. They still owe well south of $200MM in terms of actual player salary for the upcoming season, even when factoring in projected arbitration salaries. As such, there’s ample room to continue adding significant pieces to the roster, so long as the Dodgers don’t mind being taxed at increasingly steep rates. They’re a third-time luxury payor, so they’ll be taxed at 62% for any dollars spent from $257MM to $277MM, at 95% from $277MM to $297MM, and a hefty 110% for any dollars spent thereafter.
Beyond landing the biggest fish in the history of free agency and acquiring Glasnow and Margot, the Dodgers have also re-signed Jason Heyward and Joe Kelly, brought Daniel Hudson back on a minor league contract and traded lefty Victor Gonzalez to the Yankees in what’s been an active offseason so far. With clear needs in the rotation and perhaps on the bench and in the bullpen, it’s highly unlikely that Friedman, Gomes & co. will consider this their final significant deal of the winter.
Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first reported that the extension was all but finalized. ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the terms.
$12 hit to their CBT I heard. Most money deferred until 3056.
You’re being ridiculous. Come on, you know it’s only 2956.
This joke has been posted 100,000,000 times!! Is there any fresh take you have?
I mean, it’s still funny sooooo … no need for fresh takes?
The fresh takes are being deferred until 2032.
These jokes are not old, Astros trash can jokes are old.
Deferral jokes are so hot right now.
The joke is the MLB allowing these types of contracts. Pushing the middle and lower sized organizations further from competitive balance.
The under/over on the number of posters making identical jokes is 20 on this thread.
Yes, it is getting old….as there’s a drive to deep left field by Castellanos. It’s gonna be a home run.
blue – Many of the commenters use this site strictly for the stats, and unfortunately stats guys aren’t known for their sense of humor.
Astros trash can jokes are not old – trading Mike trout to the Yankees for Clint Frazier and Miguel Andujar are old
Mlb allowing this type of stuff is BS. You’re telling me the Ray’s can’t afford 27mm a year.My wife took a video of me saying I’m done watching baseball because of this crap. I’m the biggest baseball fan you’ll find,but after the Mariners garbage about having troubles with RSNW and not able to afford players, I’m done.
Uhhh Einstein.. it’s written in the MLB rules as possible to do “legally”.. meaning every team can do it.. y’all just to slow in the head and jealous that the “loophole” wasn’t found by ur team first.. still quit crying and do the same.. seriously smfh @ u..
Legally
But still wrong.
Its not a loophole nor is it something that the Dodgers came up with. Its what Ohtani asked for from every team and multiple teams offered similar deals.
And we have a winner!
However it’s still against the spirit of the rule.
The luxury tax was made in 2016 to combat this exact outcome, otherwise why even have it?
I don’t care that the Mariners didn’t sign him, I’m actually very happy they didn’t blow that money on him. I was thinking after his injury his contract was going to drop from 600m like people suggested to more in line of 450-500m like what was signed. But how do any of you fans think this is good for the game? Good luck to any fans wanting to see the Tax Dodgers in person this year without spending less then $300.
Is it though?
“MLB allowing this type of stuff is BS”
What stuff? Trades?
Baseball won’t miss you.
It’s not an airport, no need to announce your departure.
Legal and not wrong, merely misunderstood
Your response has been posted 2 billion times do you have a fresh take?
they can do it and save money now, so what’s the problem?
the Rays can, but they won’t.
Legally, every team is allowed to make a deal like this. What separates the Dodgers is the TV deal that they have, which allows them to defer so much money. Most orgs can’t put $680 million on the books 10 years in the future when they have no guarantees of money coming in, but when you have $330 million a year guaranteed until 2038 coming, it’s a different story. And by the way, if you want to insult others, you should probably work on proper spelling and grammar first.
Hahahaha
My top 3 fresh takes without time to prepare…
The Dodgers are trying to compete with the Rangers for most pitchers with elbow injuries on a 40-man roster!
Glasnow and Shohei together should be the most expensive 200 IP starter in the league.
The Dodgers will spend more money on their bullpen, bench, and injured players in 2024, than the Mariners spend on their whole roster. Currently it sits at roughly $46M for the Dodgers side, but should Ohtani get hit by a bullpen cart or Tyler Glasnow run too fast out to the mound, they could slip to $130M quickly!
DroppedThirdStrike
What purpose does the CBT serve?
That’s the question going forward
+ or – ?? It’s not an over under without a positive or negative indicator.
@blue. Come on buddy. You’re Dodger blue is showing.
This isn’t exactly ancient news so just suck it, buttercup nipples.
Actually having a player willing to do this is pretty rare. Most FAs want as much money upfront as possible. Most are not earning in excess of $40M per year in endorsements. More power to LA, I wish TX had done this exact deal but they didn’t. Move on to the next one.
This isn’t fangraphs! What stats are you talking about?! Tim’s deep dive into analytics?! Not so much.
More likely fluff pieces about rich teams industriously creating extra work in their contract construction without gaining any competitive advantage related to the moving of that money, despite moving that money only having one positive effect on the team.
Yeah, Astros can jokes are still a hit in Houston, last I heard!
I hope Ohtani takes all the Dodgers to Japan to celebrate his new contract and a school yard full of kids decide to teach them all the game Kancho!
@ Fever… But that one about fWAR, regression to the mean, and Dick Monfort’s front office is a classic
Local cable networks notwithstanding, I’d hope the Guggenheim ownership group would know better than to agree to a deal with a subsidiary of Sinclair.
Yeah Ohtani fan boy, nice change of your name like as soon as his deal was announced. You’re the type of guy who tells the neighbors about your boss at the whippy dip ice cream shack giving you a raise, right?!
To be clear, the issue everyone* has with the Ohtani deal, is the Pirates could never leverage $680M in an escrow account for 10 years while fielding a competitive roster around Shohei because it’s a dying steelworkers town in western PA.
They are also near the Amish areas of this country and for that reason, their media market is less than enviable and has to be shared with one of the consistently great hockey teams which means despite the hockey season ending in early April, the NHL playoffs run almost halfway through June.
Huh?
@bluesteele
Sure.
Glasnow will finally hit his stride with the Dodgers, deferring IL stints until after he’s retired from the game of baseball.
I love the new generation not knowing the difference between a sentence and a phrase/utterance. You want to give a whole idea, instead of “is it though?” It’s not even worth saying if nobody understands the context of your comment!
Cut out all the trash talk. Oops lol.
People still bring up trash cans. The deferrals will be a running joke for a long time
Anytime certain topics come up, MLB fans will repeat the exact same joke 30 times in the comment section. The same pun on a players name, trash can jokes on Astros mentions, and now deferral and “tax dodger”.
My theory is that the average MLB fan is a 50+ alcoholic. Both dementia and alcohol causes people to repeat things
But the difference is only the first paragraph was funny, your attempt at humor was as Bob Uecker once said in Major League the movie, “Just a bit outside!”
@paddyo875
Albuquerque. See I can do it too. Snorkel.
Your wife took a video of you? The hell are you talking about?
As long as Altuve is on the Trashtros, trash can jokes won’t ever get old
Those takes are about as fresh as a 12 day old tuna sitting in the sun
SEATown111 hour ago
Mlb allowing this type of stuff is BS. You’re telling me the Ray’s can’t afford 27mm a year.
=================
Two questions-
1-Since payroll discrepancies in baseball have existed since the beginning of time, what is it about Glasnow that is causing you to leave?
2-Why TB? They win 90++ all the time. It is hard to believe that someone would be dissatisfied with those results.
Whaaa now??
KP231 hour ago
But still wrong.
====================
Is it wrong for a specific reason, or wrong because you don’t like it?
If my employer asked me to forego my salary for a year, in return for my salary + 15%, would it be wrong for me to say yes?
The luxury tax was to deal with total payroll. The deferrals are designed to deal with cash flow issues.
But how do any of you fans think this is good for the game?
=======================
When y’all signed Cano for $240M, was that good for the game?
Why do we need to know that your wife took a video of you saying this?
That made me laugh. First original use of the deferred joke. Nice job Howie!
Of course “sho-timedoyer” doesn’t have a problem with it
Oh please. Dodger’s fans need to stop with the whole you wish your team had of thought of it. Every team has thought of it, just no other players would agree to it.
Pirates could never leverage $680M in an escrow account for 10 years
=====================
The salary is what counts, not the deferrals. If the Pirates can afford the $46M in salary, then they can afford the postage stamp required to send the escrow to PNC.
Joe,
If you worked in a sports league that had a CBT, where it’s called a “COMPETITIVE BALANCE TAX”
Where penalties hurt the team on the field, and circumventing those penalties would be skirting that, then yes
The deferrals will be a running joke for a long time
==========================
Only until MLB-R runs an article showing that most teams have used them. Then people will be saying, well, in our case, it was different”.
No Joe, the luxury tax is appropriately called a COMPETITIVE balance tax….
Not luxury tax, so it was signed to help competitive balance. At least that was the intention in 2016. Intent matters. Shohei’s stated intention was to help the team deal with this CBT. His intention, though Honorable, is to have a work around for that precise issue. He said so himself.
I agree, there shouldn’t be a tax. If you let poor billionaire owner can’t afford to pay his players he should sell. Mark Cuban would buy the Pirates in a heartbeat.
Joe,
List all the deferral contracts signed since 2016, not before 2016, any contract signed b before 2016 isn’t relevant.
2016 CBT was placed due to these very deferred contacts you list. Anything signed post this, I’m interested in.
SEA – I feel your pain.
And you probably don’t know the answer to this …. guess which team made the biggest profit in MLB last year??
Yup …. your very own Seattle Mariners.
Deferral jokes are not close to old yet, they have a while until expiration. Once Ohtani starts getting paid for real, then it will be the Dodgers that won’t find them funny.
Pls – Thank you, excellent post.
People need to realize the deferrals are all about cash flow for the team and tax savings for the player, nothing more.
As long as the Dodgers and Yankees continue to generate the most revenue in MLB, they will continue to be the biggest spenders.
The misplaced anger from fans should be directed towards teams like the Athletics and Mariners who make the biggest profits by keeping their payroll so low.
Just wait when Arson Judge leads league in home runs for the Giants – having Lee in lineup will surely help him capture RBI title as well. — no need for deferral pay there.
The walkup music for all the Astros should be Michael Jackson’s “Beat it”.
You know what they say about the Astros play calling?! It’s just trash!
How do Astros handle a tough at bat?! The remind themselves they ‘can’ when it’s the right pitch!
I wonder what the venn diagram is of that demographic and also an enthusiastic Trump supporter.
How about the bottom 1/3 of the teams start putting some of that revenue sharing money that they get, towards the team and not straight into their pockets. League needs a salary floor before they could even consider trying to get the players to agree to a salary cap.
ckc12537, well only until they defer to something else!
UncommonSense,
So you decided to settle on 12 day old Tuna, huh? Not 10, not 11, but 12! Personally, I think the whole reference stinks!
I can’t wait until he gets inducted into the HoF
Yes, it was a good contract when they signed Cano and we got good value out of it in Seattle, as it was never an albatross, when we dealt the contract we had already gained $48.9M in excess value (fangraphs valued his play for the 5 years at $168.9M), it also diversified the talent around the league instead of just having the best players on the richest teams.
Anytime small- or mid- market teams add players of significant talent, it is good for baseball. The sooner the rest of the league can keep up with the richer teams, the more it will grow the game for smaller markets and that does two thing. First, it increases the financial stability of the team in a way that lets it stand on it’s own. Second, it limits the need for larger market teams to fund smaller market teams.
Trashtros HR music? The Can Can
No, it’s not that simple. because then they still have to pay $240M or $24M/year for 10 years to a player who is retired. They have never had a $24M player on their roster, and you think they are going to not only pay a guy $46M x 10, but then sign up to contribute an extra $24M to someone not on the roster for a decade?! Plus this stupid crap only helps teams nearing the CBT limit, not the small market teams that will never get there.
As an example, say you take Jackson Chourio as an example, he’ll make $2M, $4M, $7M, $8M, $9M, $15M, $16M, $17M, a $2M signing bonus and a $2M buyout. His luxury tax number is $10.25M, but he’ll make a lot less right now. The most likely chance the Brewers run into the CBT is now, because he has a higher AVG than he actually makes, creating a -$8.25M CBT value.
But if the Brewers keep acquiring and signing young players to these types of deals, eventually when they hit their fiscal budget, their CBT total will be less than what they can spend. Imagine a team of Chourio players, let’s multiply his contract x9, Their CBT total this year would be $92.25M, but they’d only owe $18M in actual salary. Skip ahead to 2030 and that same group of 9 guys would cost $144M, but their CBT total would still be $92.25M a +$51.75M.
Since these teams are less likely to sign a big name long-term, their initial free agent deals will be shorter in length and will be off the books before the salaries really increase. Meanwhile in theory, Chourio x9 become varying versions of talent from good regulars to All-Stars, and maybe a superstar, but they no longer need to add high end talent because those guys are already under contract, instead they need to start bringing young players to create the next wave of top talent in hopes of not buying at market value in free agency.
The problem you have with the example I just gave is the Braves issue with extending Strider too early. Sure they feel it’s a discount, but it’s not really any different than what his value would’ve been if they signed him in a couple years. The benefit is the AVG is lower by doing it now, but the downside is it forces you over the luxury tax threshold for a guy making $1M in year one, and really getting very little in excess value from the contract they signed. The only way it makes sense for the Braves to sign Strider to a deal like that, is if they are going to move a bigger contract like Charlie Morton, who will push them over the cap.
Shohei’s stated intention was to help the team deal with this CBT.
====================
He took a lower salary to help the team. Not sure why that is a problem.
Same as it always had. Its purpose and effectiveness remain unchanged. Fan’s understanding of it has been lowed by the complexity of the Ohtani deal and the way it’s structured.
This has been covered ad nauseam in multiple articles on this site and about a thousand others and I can’t think of a way to simplify it more unless I get Big Bird to draw it out in crayon for everyone.
List all the deferral contracts signed since 2016,
============================
I have no intention of checking every contract for hundreds of players. The ones I am aware of are Chris Sale, Raffy Devers, and Lindor.
Fever Pitch Guy
“People need to realize the deferrals are all about cash flow for the team and tax savings for the player, nothing more.”
Except ohtani, stated that the deferrals were about the CBT, explicitly.
But what does he know?
Again, there are no skirted, escaped, evaded, avoided, cheated, ducked, missing, etc penalties.
$46 mil a year in 2024+ = $70 mil a year as structured in Ohtani deal. Period.
Shohei’s stated intention was to help the team deal with this CBT.
====================
He took a lower salary to help the team. Not sure why that is a problem.
– lol, took a lower salary to help the team skirt penalties that would effect the on field product. Really no different than teams trying to relay signs, they were finding a way to skirt a rule. That was wrong too, no matter how badly they just wanted to help the team.
It doesn’t matter what Ohtani knows. He’s not the team accountant. The CBT valuation is $46 mil a year for 10 years. And it’s paid during the 10 years Ohtani will be playing. That’s because the contract, as structured, is worth EXACTLY $460 MILLION.
It’s a salary deferral, not a tax deferral.
@johnrealtime
You’re projecting.
KP: Current deferrals? Betts, Devers, Freeman, Alex Cobb, Arenado, Strasburg, Sale, Yelich, Ohtani, Lindor, etc.
There are many; there have always been many; there will always be many.
I upvoted this twice, ’cause I like to repeat things…..
“The deferrals will be a running joke for a long time”
… ummm its been a running joke for decades ever heard of bobby bonilla day. It was even on the regular news lol
Their CBT total this year would be $92.25M, but they’d only owe $18M in actual salary. Skip ahead to 2030 and that same group of 9 guys would cost $144M, but their CBT total would still be $92.25M a +$51.75M.
==========================
When you say “cost”, do you mean expense or cash cost? A lot of people use them interchangeably.
The expense never changes, tho the accountant in me says it should be weighted to the earlier, more productive years.
But the cash flow is theoretically taken care of. If you pay someone $10M * 10, or $100M if you only pay him $2M in the first year, then the entry would be:
Dr. Salary $10M
Credit Cash $2M
Credit L/T liabilities $8M
Unless the team defaults , and there are not enough remaining assets to pay off the liabilities, and MLB chooses to not assist in the process, then there are no issues. The liability is always there.
Except ohtani, stated
======================
And Ewing went on strike to be able to put food on the table.
And Hampton went to Denver instead of NYC because of the schools.
And Clemens took a contract from Toronto instead of the Ranges because it was closer to his home in TX,
So should we be saying the Dodgers borrowed the Astros’ trash cans to store the money in to pay their players off in the distant future?
Not a dodgers fan…. But don’t blame the dodgers blame the bargained agreement… it’s bad for the sport no doubt but it’s perfectly allowed…. They won’t feel regret nor should they that’s chump change to them look at there tv revenue it’s over 300 mill….. as a brewers fan am I jelious hell yah…. Especially with Bally messing this all up I don’t even know what channel my team will play on let alone the tv deal (currently 15 mill a year not even close to 330) lucky for my teams there also grouped with the bucks so there new deal CANT be as bad as there current one… don’t blame the outcome work to change it in the next cba… but good luck with the baseball union is the strongest union in sports
Mingo (Lost Beatles member?),
Based on what wild #$$ conjecture would Mark Cuban buy into a franchise, he’s liquidating shares in the Mavs and he loves basketball. Then on top of that he’s going to buy a third franchise, but one halfway across the country, while owning an NHL and NBA team in Dallas?!
Your theory sure does sniff while testing it, but not in the good way!
KP23,
Don’t encourage JoeBrady by saying you’re interested! Just say you’re willing to debate about those hypothetical contracts. If you tell Joe that you’re interested, he’ll keep pestering you like a gold retriever with a tennis ball and yapping about the Dodgers like a Desperate Housewife getting a chance to share Botox secrets!
Did you hear that some dude went absolutely bonkers at Stanton when he saw him out eating?! You could hear the spit coming out of the mouth (audio only), it was one of those real crazy tirades where you feel like the guy might have a personal grudge against him, but nope he wasn’t one of the interns Stanton left in the wake of his #MeToo past, just mad about how cheap the Mariners are being with their payroll.
Thank you Dr. Fever Pitch Guy for telling us how we should feel and who we should be mad at going forward. By any chance did you want to tell any of us what we were going to have for dinner tonight?! I figure we should get your approval for that and while we’re at it, should we wait for instructions to keep breathing?!
I’m not sure how someone who adjudicates over intentionally set fires is going to lead the league in homeruns, but you have my attention! This must be one of those stories with the twist ending!
Sidebar, I would write your Jung Ho Lee offensive predictions in pencil since he’s coming from the AA equivalent KBO and he’s recovering from a broken ankle! You guys just paid twice as much for nearly half the contract that Chourio got from the Brewers and Lee is the less sure bet!
I’m taking the under on Lee scoring enough to help any player in baseball win the RBI title, but especially if the guys hitting behind him are Wade Jr., Flores, and Yastrzemski… I can’t believe Ohtani didn’t want to join that Murderers Row!
The problem with San Fran is their feces problem in the streets has leaked into Oracle Park, and filled the home team’s clubhouse! They aren’t all that bad, but they’re more 80 than 85 wins at this point, and if Luis Urias was traded to them, he’d be their #3 hitter!
DroppedThirdStrike
Why did ohtani specifically say what he said about taking a deferred contract to help with the CBT?
So he’s wrong? A liar?
Don’t forget that Griffey was the 2nd or 3rd highest player on the Reds last year and he’s been in the HOF for half a decade!
No Joe, I used it the correct way. There’s only one way to interpret it, if you read the whole thing. I literally used cost for the money spent and CBT total as it applies to the…. CBT…. I have an accounting degree, so no need to tell me about debiting and crediting. I hope you taking notes in the blog space was helpful for you, but you’re just reiterating what I said in a convoluted way.
The take away is smaller market teams don’t do long-term deals with free agents, so their contracts tend to fall of quickly, the goal is always to keep stacking long-term team friendly deals like the Braves used to do, and supplment the roster with free agents.
Joe,
After reading your last comment…
“Except ohtani, stated
======================
And Ewing went on strike to be able to put food on the table.
And Hampton went to Denver instead of NYC because of the schools.
And Clemens took a contract from Toronto instead of the Ranges because it was closer to his home in TX”
>>>>>> Look how the tables have turned, on yourself!
I refuse to argue with you and against you at the same time!
Or the Astros should play Ricky Martin’s “She Bangs!”
So we’re at a point in society where integrity and spirit of the law need to be added into business deals?!
There is no spirit of the rule when the CBA explicitly states that there is no limit on deferred salary
Yes, he’s wrong. For whatever reason he did it, it has ZERO CBT implications.
Stop with this overused and more importantly false narrative that “every team can do it” no not every team can pay someone 68M a year for several years after retirement. It’s tax evasion but it’s legal tax evasion. That’s what this is period and maybe 6 teams are able to afford this defferal commitment.
I’ll raise you one back surgery…..
We’ve always been at a point in society where integrity and spirit of the law needed to be added into business deals.
America (like many countries) has ALWAYS been the land of the hustle, the lie, the short con, the long con, the fast buck, the ‘steal everything that’s not nailed down,’ the war profiteers, the bought politicians.
Even the U.S. military has always been a deadly hustle. See “War is a Racket,” by two-time Medal of Honor winner Marine Major General Smedley Butler.
Wrian
There is literally no tax being evaded. The full value of the contract is taxed fully.
But, truth be told, in any market within any sport only a handful of teams can afford one of the best players in its league at any given time. That’s just the business of sports and contracts.
List all the deferral contracts signed since 2016,
============================
I have no intention of checking every contract for hundreds of players. The ones I am aware of are Chris Sale, Raffy Devers, and Lindor.
==========
Great examples, devers and Lindor now let’s get to the math where it works out they only saved approx 1.4 million dollars on luxury tax, while certainly notable, not exactly the 25 million the dodgers have saved by structuring this contract. I think if they deferred less than 2 million, the argument would hold some weight. Btw don’t agree with any of savings against the CBT. If anyone is serious about the stated purpose of the CBT, this clearly represents an issue
DroppedThirdStrike
But it does matter, because he didn’t speculate his own intent like you are trying to do. He outright said it. Why is that hard? He even added an opt out the expressly says, the dodgers have to use the “saved money”, according to you this doesn’t exist. Why is there saved money for anything in your scenario…?
Are you the team accountant?
Thank_God_We_Arent_Angels
Too late…. But thank you
ADD to that…
MLB is a monopoly and in violation of anti-trust laws but hey they’re protected by the USG. Special Priveleges for MLB owners.
JackStrawb
Spirit of the law is already in supreme Court and lesser court rulings. We use it, sparsely, but still it exists as precedent
I don’t know? Are Andujar and Frazier jokes freshly presented? How about Trashstros jokes? How about the Dodgers fake Covid trophy jokes? Are Yankees and Red Sox PED jokes old yet?
BTW not you personally bluesteel, I am just pointing something out that I see over and over again. Baseball fans can be ruthless!
false narrative that “every team can do it” no not every team can pay someone 68M
================================
Explain why. If Mil has a $150M payroll, and the players are willing to accept a one-year deferral in exchange for 4.43% interest, why can’t Mil do that?
KP23
The saved money is deferred salary, which has no impact on the CBT, regardless of what he says.
This isn’t difficult and has been explained 8 million times. Even my seven year old rolls his eyes every time he reads over my shoulder about “skirting the luxury tax.”
If anyone is serious about the stated purpose of the CBT, this clearly represents an issue
========================
There are only two parties to the CBA. They are the only ones that can have an issue with it. If the owners are okay with it, and the players are okay with it, then that is the end of the line.
No one else can have an issue with it.
The Rays won this trade and keep proving you can win without a huge payroll. Glasnow is NOT worth 110 million. The Dodgers have money to burn and are desperate to get a World Series title so they can afford these types of mistakes.
Oh, please. Folks are still posting about Arson Judge on every Giants story. You better get used to deferment jokes.
That was spot on perfect @Howiedoin !! Lol
Thank you for the actual laugh out loud..
The Mets and Bobby Bonilla was one of the first examples of a player getting deferred money I ever recall of hearing about.
In fact, I think good ole Bobby is even STILL getting paid a million per year!! lol
Just like the DH.
You’re being dramatic. Glasnow and Ohtani does not guarantee them a ring. I mean they won 100+ games last year, does this make them win 110+? Not likely. They were winning the division anyways but the postseason is a different beast. Not to mention it’s very possible the Rays won the trade even with Glasnows extension.
For those very same reasons you cited, Ohtani would never play for the Pirates even if they could afford him. If the Pirates can’t compete then maybe they should just fold or move.
Too
Now THATS funny!
KP – It’s the same $46M CBT hit with or without deferrals.
Do yiu have a link to his quote?
KP – Yes he is WRONG!
It would be wrong, if you don’t have the resources to get thru that year without paychecks. It would also be wrong if your employer was filing for bankruptcy when they offered it (or borrowing to meet payroll).
Please site a source as all but Atlanta’s books are private. I’m sure it’s someone’s speculation based on revenue and no insight on actual costs incurred.
What proof have you of your claim? Teams have other expenses than just payroll. Money goes to pay those too, or the Yankees and Dodgers have no one to play.
He took the largest contract in Baseball HISTORY to help the team.
There I fixed it for you. Doesn’t sound as magnanimous now, does it.
He was always expected to get up to $50MM per, when healthy. He got less than that as he’s injured. His agent just spun the numbers to sound better, and get bigger headlines.
But not a sharpened crayon! Safety first.
Dr. House: Everybody lies.
Ohtaninomics actually works.
Why? Because it’s the precious Dodgers we can’t make jokes? How long have the “trash can” and “Bellicheat” jokes been going on?
The Dodgers are run by hedge fund guys. They’re going to put Ohtani’s money in a money market account and make money off his money. Money that they won’t have to pay him.
my thing is more that if its based on perceived value than how are you saying Judge’s AAV is 40Million when the perceived salary in 2031 for 40M should be worth less than by todays dollars. Maybe not as much as of a difference as ohtani but i would think it should drop a mil or two if we are doing future value.
They better be careful. The future people might take theirs jebs
That Dodger Stadium underwater clause is a killer tho, extends the contract to 3096.
I hope Doc Brown and Marty invent time travel before then. I would love to travel to the future and find Grey’s Sports Almenac. From 2025-2075.
Be more like greys online sports almanac, but you have to pay 50 bucks a month for the subscription.
All I need is one read through and I’ll take screenshots. Make my millions like Biff.
Logjammer D
Nah, by then you will get that info through neuro-link!
Realistically tho the ownership and or front office have done damage to the future of this club. In 10 years there going to be paying 70M+ for players that dont exist
In the year 2525
If man is still alive
If woman can survive
They may find
Otani has just 10 years left on his contract
I love ❤️ MLBTR, but was this post truly necessary?
Yeah
Millions were asking the question…..”is it almost finalized yet”? That’s why. Edge of your seat stuff.
How you smuggled a heart into your comments is beyond me. I think that’s the first emoticon I’ve ever seen on this blog. What in the heck is going on around here… The Dodgers dodging (taxes), Tim writing fluff pieces, people getting offended about the discussion of trash can abuse in Houston, and now emoticons on MLBTR?!?! Next you’re going to tell me the A’s are moving to Vegas!
✈️
Tim writing that article in defense of Ohtani’s deferred $ was just about the weirdest thing I have ever seen. I only wish I knew the exact dollar amount he was paid to do it. Guessing they offered him 50K.
TrumboRedux
Well it was speculation, and since ohtani outright stated why he signed the deferred contract….
Crickets
TrumboRedux,
Even if that was true, Tim didn’t really receive $50K, because he had the payment deferred.
How the hell Friedman agree with this deal? Margot is below .700 OPS hitter, they should ask Arozarena too IMHO
Margot is just a throw in, the Rays are clearing $6M of his $10M salary (they are sending $4M)
He will be in LA for just this season as a 4th/5th OF
This trade is really Glasnow for two prospects.
Yeah he feels more like a platoon option Heyward
By the end of 2024 a healthy Andy Pages might be getting those platoon reps in RF
exactly what Margot will be. He’s actually a little above average vs LHP hitting-wise, and will most likely platoon with Heyward. Could be worse.
He probably wanted to see if he could get Tampa Bay to send him cash in a deal, just for fun.
Margot helps AF field a RH lineup unable to hit in the postseason
niel – Friedman had to acquire Margot, he’s required to maintain a quota of former Red Sox players.
I’m sure they did ask for Arozarena and TB then asked for 4 more of Dodgers top prospects.
Pepiot isn’t that good.
Maybe ship Margot to the White Sox in a Cease deal. Probably not, but maybe.
If this is a joke, it Cease’s to be funny!
Margot for Yoncada. A deal of Boston letdowns.
Are we talking about him taking on a b.s. contract for one season, so he could get one of the most desired starters on the market?
Maybe you’re refering to the fact that he just paid $165M for a pitcher that has never pitched more than the 120 IP that Glasnow threw in 2023, his previous high was 111.2 IP in 2018, and his third highest inning total was 88 IP in 2021! By the way, his career ERA is 3.89!
So if Glasnow gets you Pepiot, DeLuca, and a $10M salary dump (Margot)…
What does Logan Gilbert get the Mariners with a lower career ERA (3.73), 3 more years of control, making $20M less this year, and having thrown only 34 IP less career than Glasnow (495.2 for Logan vs 529.2 for Tyler), despite being 3.7 years younger and having pitched in 5 less seasons?! I’m going to guess a lot!
I was thinking the same thing about the return for Burnes.
This surprises me. I thought Glasnow would reject an extension and bet on himself. What ya guys think? 6 years 162M? More or less?
Bet on himself? He’s averaged 11 starts per year for his career. Good pitcher, but he’ll be on the DL a lot. He’s smart, get the $ while the gettin’s good
Yeah he is definitely making the smart and safe move here.
Fan – With his medical history, you really think he’d gamble going an entire season without an injury?
It’s the same reason Sale signed a below market extension so quickly, he knew he’d have a hard time staying healthy throughout 2019.
Yeah he is making a solid move for himself. I wonder if that contract could come with an opt out?
@BaseballFan2001,
Opt out?! Where’s he going to want to go? He gets to play for the team he rooted for as a kid, close to his childhood neighborhood and friends, he’s making twice as much as he’s worth due to injuries, and he shows up to play for a perennial 100-win team that includes the best player on the planet, and two more of the best 5-10 hitters in the world. Seems like there’s nowhere else he’d want to be, it’s not like he’ll opt out to go back to Pittsburgh, so he can return to where his career began. Sorry, but that part of the country is a layover, not a destination, and especially for California kids.
This is similar to the Carlos Rodon deal for an oft-injured, top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher.
@YankeesBleacherCreature,
Carlos Rodon just called and said he’s offended…. Deeply!
Glasnow most IP: 120 (2023), 111.2 (2018), 88 (2021)
Rodon most IP: 178 (2022), 165 (2016), 139.1 (2015), 132.2 (2021), 120.2 (2018)
Glasnow All-Star appearances….
Rodon’ All-Star appearances 2021, 2022
Glasnow Cy Young votes…
Rodon Cy Young votes: 2021 (5th in AL), 2022 (6th in NL)
Glasnow career IP: 529.2 IP
Rodon career IP: 847.1 IP
Both deals were signed prior to the players age 30 season.
He just got that. Actually he’ll get $165M if they trigger the option and he’s playing close enough to where he grew up that he could hit his house with a thrown baseball, when he’s not consistently on the injured list.
With a wing like Glasnow’s, hanging by a thread, you negotiate like 43 year old Rich Hill and take all the guaranteed money you can possibly get.
wild prediction time! 6yr/175M
5/125
Glasgow’s great great great great great grandchildren will receive most of the salary as it is deferred until 2230.
Nice, now your homeless descendants can say their not-so great, great, great, great, great grand daddy once trolled his extension MLB Trade Rumors.
And whatever you do, just make sure they don’t have to pay too much in taxes.
The top 1% control more wealth than the entire middle class combined.
“combined” lol
I hear most of the payment is deferred as a lunar module.
10 years/ 250M with money going to his grandchildren & deferred until their great grandchildren are in the MLB Draft to where they’re forced to play for the Dodgers or else the deferment is cut off because the dodgers paid a lawyer to make sure that happens and they deferred their contract as well can’t forget that aswell.
Eim
“10 years/ 250M with money going to his grandchildren & deferred until their great grandchildren are in the MLB Draft to where they’re forced to play for the Dodgers or else the deferment is cut off because the dodgers paid a lawyer to make sure that happens and they deferred their contract as well can’t forget that aswell.”
This is the unfortunate outcome when people think they are sufficiently knowledgeable about a topic and funny, and they are neither of those things.
it was a joke… (you didn’t find it funny but others did) read the room please
Eim
“you didn’t find it funny but others did”
One other financial illiterate
Eovaldismemes
Better off ignoring certain people on this site.
Do you bro.
3/90 or 4/120 with heavy incentives that take it to a 6 or 7 year deal.
If the Dodgers sign Yamamoto, I’m rescinding my MLB fandom.
the NHL will gladly take you but i can’t promise it’ll be any better
Why, are the dodger signing NHL players to deferred deals next?
honestly at this rate i wouldn’t be surprised, they’d probably have a heart attack at Ohtani’s deferred contract because that’s more than they’re making in their careers
For bench brawls @GASoxFan
You can’t be mad at The Dodgers for setting themselves up to be able to sign Yamamoto. Be mad at your team for not trying huge difference
many teams don’t have the money to just throw out 200-300M$ contracts
You don’t have to. The D-Backs made it all the way to the World Series last year, with only Ketel Marte making more than 10 mill. Teams that spend resources on scouting and player development are the teams that always compete. Look at the Angels. They spend tons of money on their payroll, but nothing on player development, and they haven’t had a winning season in how long? It’s not about how much you spend, it’s about how you spend it.
Many teams do have the money but choose not to spend.
I already did
I hope he doesn’t go there , phillies need to make a big move. Glasnow is a good pitcher but he’s always a risk because of his injury history
When two months into the season theyre doing a Mets style fire sale sell off youll be back.
Why shouldn’t they? After 2025 the only players they have under contract are Betts, Freeman, and Ohtani (and I suppose Glasnow, in a few minutes).
If you were Yamamoto would you rather sign with the Dodgers or the Mets? Is it LA’s fault Steve Cohen is a fatback grossero who wrecked his organization by thinking “if I can run a hedge fund, how hard can a baseball team be? You just buy guys, right?”
I’m gonna love the reaction if there is any deferred money in this extension. Now that I think about it, why are the Dodgers extending a guy who can’t stay on the field? Oh yeah, BECAUSE THEY CAN.
The Dodgers will be lucky if they get an average of 15 starts per year from Glasnow over the life of the extension. But they have all that money from Ohtani jerseys now.
I’m sure the goal is to monitor his workload each year so he’s providing 120-150 innings in the regular season. That’s doable. Those inning totals would make him elite in terms of production.
150 innings? Please. Glasnow has never gone over 120 innings in his career. He’s only gotten over 100 innings twice. Really, the Dodgers would be incredibly lucky to get an average of 100 innings per year out of him. I’m betting on something more like an average of 80-90 innings, and that might be a stretch.
I said “the goal”, not necessarily what will actually happen.
@Wagner>Cobb
No, the goal is to have Glasnow pitch for LA in the postseason.
That’s it. That’s the goal.
When he’s healthy he’s one of the best pitchers in the game. The Dodgers would be happy if he never pitched more than a tuneup start in late September as long as he was healthy throughout the five postseasons they’ll be in while he’s under contract with them.
If that’s the goal, then he’ll have 1 start per week through the whole season and be limited to 4-5 innings per start regardless of what happens. He will basically throw live bullpens all season for 27 million dollars. I highly doubt that happens since they do still need to make the playoffs each year. The regular season isn’t a formality.
Their rotation is a mess and they don’t play in the NL or AL central. They would very much like a productive regular season from him in addition to a healthy post season. Is him being healthy during the playoffs the primary goal? Obviously. Do they plan on him making spot starts during the regular season? I guess we’ll see, but I highly doubt that.
He’s a perfect guy for a 6 man rotation which they will have next year.
Especially if they get Yamamoto. Shohei (2025), Glasnow, Bueleher (2024) and Yamamoto all need to be in a 6 man rotation.
Don’t jersey sales revenues get split between all teams?
Also: licensing from the 90 or so Japanese products he endorses.
$2M Annually & $??? deferred as long as agreed upon by CBT Tax diversion consultants!
LAD have all the hurt pitchers.
*insert spongebob hospital meme*
The Yankees still have a few of them.
Can’t wait for the Dodgers not to win it all this year after they’ve won the offseason.
I feel like anybody a team wins an offseason, they don’t win it all that year.
Who was the last team that won both the offseason and the ring on the same year? 09′ Yanks?
Money has a bigger effect in getting you a chance to win it all, not winning it all. MLB is a greedy machine that could care less about mid/small markets. Pretty obvious..
Explain the Padres then?
I still remember when TO made all those trades for Reyes, Johnson, a 37 year old knuckleballer, etc., and the press was giddy with excitement
The NYY trade for ARod destroyed competitive balance.
The RS acquiring Crawford & Gonzo,
SD adding so many big names I lost count.
The Mets last year.
So many nothing-burgers. The LAD will be good, but they have been good for like ten years or so.
MFIM
“I feel like anybody a team wins an offseason, they don’t win it all that year”
Bias
EVERY team is more likely to not win the WS than to win it.
Every one
It should be obvious why.
The best teams are something like 3 to 4 times more likely to lose than win
So, OF COURSE, a team that wins the off season isn’t likely to win
But, any chance the Rangers won the offseason?
A Mets’ fan talking about winning the offseason and not winning it all??? Sounds familiar
He’s right though, and spot on with the 09 Yankees
I wonder if the Cardinals will try this with Bieber? If he is hurt and needs a procedure, he could possibly help in the 2nd half. Meanwhile, Lynn and Gibson can take the ball every 5th day.
Mo take action, also acquire Clase. a two in one
The Cardinals don’t have Dodger money to throw around on a big risk.
that’s true. probably just wishful thinking that the rotation won’t have both Lynn & Gibsom come opening day. Bieber, Gray, Mikolas, Matz & Gibson would be pretty good with Lynn at #6.
Good pitcher, but he’s averaged 11 starts per year for his career. Dodgers signing all kind of injury prone pitchers.
Great pitcher, in fact.
2019-2023 his ERA+ is 137.
12.5 K/9
2.8 BB/9
1.1 HR/9
6.4 H/9
That’s pretty much Edwin Diaz, but 5 to 7 innings at a time.
Massive arm talent paralleled only by his fragility. Dude was born to be a Dodger.
Remember when this site and just about every reporter in MLB was touting Chris Archer as some surefire HOFer for years? Lolz He was a league average pitcher for his career, but he checked the right boxes, if you know what I mean. Gtfoh
if they get Kershaw back by the break and Glasnow is still healthy, look out. Buehler, Glasnow, Kershaw and Miller is a top of the NL rotation.
With Dustin May back around the same time. That’s a top of MLB rotation with Stone, Grove and Sheehan backing them up. And next year it gets Shohei, Tony Gonsolin, Landon Knack, River Ryan, Nick Frasso…
And quite possibly: Yamamoto, Buehler, Glasnow, Kershaw. And in 2025: Ohtani, Yamamoto, Buehler, Glasnow, Gonsolin, May.
holy smokes!!
8 years in the league and his career high in starts is 21, which it took until year 8 to get. Even after this trade the Dodgers still haven’t added a pitcher that can last a full seaaon. Maybe a Rich Hill reunion while they are at it
How are the Red Sox looking next year? It’s a rhetorical question everyone already knows.
blow’neil will carry them
Better than handcuffing their payroll for a decade, a decade after said player is retired
@Rsox You’d have thought a guy like Kyle Gibson was their perfect fallback position. A genuine, real live number four starting pitcher (not what the loons here think is a four). 92 ERA+ but 180 innings. He’d go 17 and 4 with this Dodger lineup, then be left off their postseason roster.
Remember the article written here was that this ohtani contract wasn’t about manipulating the luxury tax? In fact there were more than a few about it….
From ohtani himself
“I was looking into it, doing some calculations, and I figured if I can defer as much money as I can, that’s gonna help the (collective bargaining tax). That’s gonna help the Dodgers and be able to sign better players and make a better team,” he said. “I felt like that was worth it, and I was willing to go in that direction. That’s why I made that choice.”
He can say that all he wants but no team was going to pay him $70 million a year in real dollars. He wanted to beat Lionel Messi’s $673M+ guarantee, the biggest nominal guarantee for an athlete, and did that with the deferrals. It’s essentially $460M+ plus interest, but $700M sounds more impressive. I would imagine that if a team offered $50M a year for ten years, his agent would have countered with $700 million with all but something like $1.9 deferred to get that record setter.
I think something that people aren’t talking about is how all the pundits were talking about Ohtani getting 50, even 60 million per year, but it essentially came down to “only” 46M per year.
marcfrombrooklyn
So ohtani is a liar? Why would he sign a clause that supports his statement, that the dodgers have to use the savings to get more talent? Why would that matter if he just wanted the money?
Idk I don’t think ohtani is a liar, I think he means what he says. And frankly, it makes sense from his point of view, to be on the best team possible.
Man, I know he has injury history, but this seems like a deal. Feels like next summer he could command quite a bit more.
He’s going to be 31 next year. That’s a pretty good deal for Glasnow.
I think you’re really underselling how deep that injury history is. It isn’t a “deal” for the Dodgers. It is, at best, market value.
I agree. If some other team did this deal, I’d probably be on here calling it the dumbest contract ever. It might be
It’s so clearly an overpay that it’s mystifying. Glasnow’s a 2 WAR pitcher—in his good years.
Why trade two useful players in Pepiot and DeLuca for the privilege of overpaying Glasnow $25m in 2024 when Snell and Montgomery are available in FA? The Mets would have thrown Mark Vientos or Brett Baty at you for Pepiot and DeLuca (maybe both), so you missed out on a kid (or two) who hit for a .925 OPS in AAA and got his feet wet in MLB in 2023, effectively for free.
Has been Mr Glass. Moving forward he could be and likely will be healthier. A elite arm for lower 20m.
I approve this extension. Makes the trade better.
How is Kershaw not mentioned in this article? No way he doesn’t re-sign with them
That is… A lot of money for someone who has quite literally pitched a full 162 game season.
Glasnow has made 60 starts over past 5 years. If he can match that in the next 5 years the Dodgers will only pay $2,250,000 mil per start!
Let’s not get carried away. He’s getting older. Let’s not expect too much from him.
$27 million a year is a whole lot to guarantee a guy who has been injured more than not.
Why would the previous AAV have been pegged at $25M when the average of the contract he signed was $15M?
The rays signed him to a 2 year 30 million dollar deal. They got a 15 aav. The dodgers traded for 1 year and he’s owed 25 million.
Because when traded it’s the money and years left which was 1/25
Thank you, I was unaware the calculation is only applied to what is left.
Man, that’s a lot of money for a guy who never stays healthy. But they gotta spend that Ohtani money.
Looks like $155 million for maybe 80 innings a year. And that’s more innings than Glasnow has actually averaged over his career. And he’s not getting any younger.
Let’s just say those 80 innings better be really good innings. I know, the Dodgers have money to burn and they’re burning it. So what do I care? I don’t have to pay the ridiculous contract.
The Dodgers just won 100 games without any pitcher throwing more than 130 innings. They don’t care how many innings he throws, just that he can be healthy in October.
@math They also gave 65 starts to four guys with a combined ERA of 5.44.
And still won 100.
Is Tyler going to agree only if hes given veto power over future Dodgers personnel decisions like the shady ohtani (worst contract of all time) has??
This must hurt for Dodgers fan. It must be a crushing feeling knowing that you just signed a guy who can’t pitch a full season and spent all of Yamamoto’s money for Glasnow.
The Mets seem to have set a dumb precedent in baseball. Spend tons of millions of dollars on has-been players in hopes they perform well and then end up with a losing record and miss the playoffs. Dodgers copied the Padres and the Padres copied the Mets. Some could even say this wa started by the Yankees. But the problem is the Yankees’ method of buying championships hasn’t worked in almost 15 years so why any other team thinks this equals a championship doesn’t have a brain
If the Yankees can spend 300 million, so can the dodgers.
Dodgers now at $267 million payroll includes luxury tax hit per Cotts and they still need to sign 2 more starters and a Closer. Dodgers are going to blow past Cohen tax even with deferring $680 million !!!! Add Yamamoto and others they likely end up with a $325+ million payroll and another $55 million luxury tax penalty hit AND $52 million to Yamamoto team for posting fee!!! Yikes! MLB needs a cap as this is ridiculous.
The owners of the orioles will disagree. Every insane dollar paid in the FA market only increases the value of their franchise w all those young controllable players
Did Evan Phillips spontaneously combust? Did he disappear over a waterfall?
Dodgers have a closer already
I don’t even think no cap is even an issue. There’s lots of star players who get paid top dollar and wind up stinking and not even worth 25% of their contract like Giancarlo Stanton, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, etc.
The real issue is the POLAR OPPOSITE; being able to essentially financially control a rookie player for 6 years (obviously with the exception of arbitration).
6 years is a long time to play in the league before free agency and to command your own terms and salary and before being arbitration-eligible. The team can pay you as little as they want even if you put up a 10 WAR season. Essentially, your prime years of baseball are squandered financially by the restrictions of being under team control until 6 years of service in the MLB has been obtained
100% right yanks. Young players, stars in particular get hosed early on in their career. The whole system needs to be turned on it’s head but neither side would go for it.
So basically, they added 4 years at 27.5 per year. It’s 5 years at it’s a 5/135 (27 AAV) gives Glasnow the ability to make it a 6/155.
From a pure talent point of view, very good deal for the Dodgers. But considering his historical inability to stay on the field, too high risk for my blood. Dodgers believe in quality over quantity. Which makes some sense when what you really need are TOP guys for the postseason. But will they be healthy then??!! (Dodgers have lots of good to great arms to eat up in-season innings).
Bottom line: Feels a bit desperate to me. But admittedly, I am high on Pepiot after last season. And guessing they went bird in the hand with Glasnow over Cease and that Burnes might get held and if not, he’s a Boras client that you couldn’t trade for and extend
I’m not high on pepiot, a little, and I am high on Glasnow. That said they paid a fortune for all this in both prospect dollars and cap dollars. Bad move by the dodgers !
SOX are likely asking for a ton of prospects for Cease, so Glasnow likely cost significantly less. LAD’s deep pockets nullify the short-term cash savings Cease would represent unless they didn’t want to pay the severe 3rd-tier penalty they’re likely to now incur.
LAD, ATL, TEX & NYY on a truly different level than the rest of the league, with the Mets in a category all their own.
I do NOT want Cease. Huge red flags on important command and dominance metrics. Glasnow was much better option.
OK. I am revising my “grade”. It’s a 4 year deal that Glasnow can make 5 years. That’s much better – IMO. If Glasnow is healthy, and the Dodgers want him, they get a fifth year., not sixth. If Glasnow is healthy and the Dodgers want to move on, he will probably opt out and sign for more money and years elsewhere. Still a risk, but slightly less of one than previously reported. Still would not be surprised if Pepiot has a better overall year.
@Echopark The Dodgers REALLY, REALLY, REALLY want aces for the postseason. They don’t care about Pepiot except to the extent that he helps them add an ace.
Pepiot’s FIP, career, is 4.76, in 78 innings. He’s already 25; 26 in 2024. He’s a two pitch pitcher who is probably better off in the bullpen if he can’t develop a third pitch. There’s a lot not to like here.
Oh, and I’d flip Margot asap and sign Kike or Duvall instead.
I would too if I could get a taker.
Keep rejoicing Dodger fans. Keep piling up the injury riddled players. Your future is limited with these moves.
Even if the Dodgers add a SP like Yamamoto or Snell or Woodruff the Braves are a Better Team and don’t let Philadelphia get one of those!
Dodgers are Not a playoff team
You kindve went to far when you said they weren’t a playoff team. They definitely make the playoffs.
If LA gets Yamamoto Atlanta isn’t close to LA.
No they are still way better. Didn’t need to make moves and way younger.
Yamamoto has NOT proven crap at the mlb level so lets wait until has to use a bigger baseball that will hinder his grip and pitching every 5 days will ultimately send him to TJ surgery like most of these Japanese pitchers
@Senioreditor Amusing, anyway.
Phillies live rent free in braves heads for the playoffs
I still think LAD gets Yamamoto and trades for Cease, they have the ammo for both. They will shed 55M of payroll next year and still have several top prospects they can afford to deal.
Wow ! That turned into a terrible move by the dodgers ! Good luck w that contract !!
All this hubbub and all that money for a DH who may never be the same pitcher again and one that is .500. These two moves would kill a team but it’s the dodgers so they’ll be okay
Heyman is reporting that Glasnow has boarded a plane to Toronto;
Tyler Glasnow is the perfect Dodgers pitcher. Often injured and terrible in the playoffs.
Has anybody else heard that the Dodgers are talking to Hader to be their closer maybe signing him to a one year deal for 25 million.??
Wow, $150M guaranteed.
It’s $110M guaranteed….still a huge gamble.
Dodgers signed the deal b/c they wanted rotation certainty. 🙂
Wrong guy to sign for that.
I think he means certainty that Glasnow will be hurt.
Dodgers 1st pro sports team with a billion dollar payroll for players they are the big reason why MLB baseball needs a hard salary cap and the truth is the players will never agree to it
Bet you weren’t saying anything when the Padres were signing free agents left and right the past couple seasons. It’s jealousy. Take it on on your team’s owner if he isn’t spending the revenue on players to field a winner.
They don’t even have the highest payroll in baseball.
spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/
The LAD are currently #5 in payroll for 2024 according to my calculations.
Breaking – The Dodgers are reported to be deferring $149,999,999.99 of the reported $150M extension. Some have been going so far as to speculate that the payment terms extend into the year 2085 with a clause included to allow for descendants to inherit the contract should Tyler pass prior to its resolution.
This joke stopped being funny after the first 500 times
Nobody cares about your opinion. Thanks for playing.
Back at ya
Contract prediction: Well I got the 3 year extension length correct on previous post last night. But was light on the money at $60M guaranteed. Really thought there would be IP incentives, Glasnow has so much injury history. But the Dodgers are able to throw around stupid money, thanks to the Shohei deferral.
Does this by itself satisfy the Ohtani contract provision that the Dodgers spend the $ savings from the deferrals? Ohtani $46m + Glasnow $27m > $70m.
Friedman gave him an extra 100 million just because he pitched for the Rays lol.
So, even though it’s actually only a four year extension, for luxury tax purposes, it’s 135M over 5 years, which comes to 27M per in AAV.
Folks, this is the going rate for a #2 starter. This is actually a reasonable contract, all things considered. It’s the same deal as Sonny Gray, but just 2 years longer because Glasnow is much younger than Gray.
Is this a reasonable rate for a starter that misses more starts than he starts?
Look at the innings pitchers leaders. No one is throwing 200 IPs anymore, nor should they. Throwing a baseball is not a nature motion and every pitcher is an injury concern.
The pitcher the Dodgers traded in this deal has barely even thrown 100 innings in a pro season.
C’mon don’t insult our intelligence. 200 IPs? Laughable given that Glasnow has never topped 120. And he’s only topped 100 IPs twice in seven plus seasons. 100 IP is the new 200 IP?
Big difference between the traded pitcher and Glasnow. Traded pitcher has a much shorter track record in MLB. We don’t really know his injury risk going forward. Glasnow we definitely know.
Let’s face it the Dodgers completely ignore health of pitchers. They are severe risk takers in this category. They sign pitchers to two year contracts when said pitcher can’t pitch in the current season. Or they sign pitchers who are still hurt and many don’t end up pitching a single inning. Or inexplicably they pick up an expensive option of an injured pitcher (Treinen). Many cases where Dodgers got burned in this category. Dodgers giving away free money. Even the Ohtani contract is filled with long-term risk if his pitching health is jeopardized in the future. There must be a Friedman rule/train of thought that injuries don’t matter. Capitalize on that fear. It’s actually come back to burn him more than payoff. The only time I saw it pay off was drafting Walker Buehler when he was scheduled for TJS. Then of course he ended up getting a second TJS, and potentially lost to free agency after 2024.
Glasnow is only 5 years older than Pepiot. Pepiot is not even stretched out to throw 120 innings. He fell to the Dodgers in the draft because he was an injury risk in college, which again, is like 97% of all starters in pro ball, with the exception being guys like Gerrit Cole and Logan Webb. You list the injury history of the Dodgers but it’s like that with every team in baseball. Pitchers are getting hurt more often because they’re being told to max out in velocity. Again, this is not a Dodger problem, this is a baseball problem.
Also, starting pitching is not what it once was. The Rangers won the World Series with 2 healthy, productive starters. Same with the Braves in 2021. The Dodgers were doing 5 and dive in 2020. Hell, the Dodgers won 100 games last year when they were starting 4 rookies in August and September.
Pepiot is ready to throw 12o innings. No restrictions. Where did you get that? Even if they skipped him a couple of times and limited him to 5 IP per start he’d probably pitch more innings than Glasnow.
You honestly believe with Glasnow’s history that he is in the “97% of all starters” category? You must be his agent or something. I guarantee you that Glasnow will be injured in 2024 because he’s been hurt every year. The question is when. Hopefully it’s earlier in the season.
Injuries are definitely up. Nobody disputes that. But the Dodgers under Friedman takes way more risk. He’s signed so many guys who have a low risk of pitching in the season.
Pitching still matters as we saw in the 2023 postseason for the Dodgers. Pitching rookies and struggling veterans and look how great that postseason turned out!!! We all knew that the Dodgers didn’t have enough starting pitching coming into the postseason and it played out. The offense didn’t perform as well but I would roll with that offense again (plus Ohtani sure hleps) and bet that results would be different. With the starting pitching I’d tell you that you’d get similar results. The kids pitched good enough during the season with a great offense behind it, but they struggled for most of the season. But come playoff time the starting pitching weaknesses are magnified and the Dodgers got exposed.
Pepiot literally missed about 4 months this past season lol. If he’s stretched out for 120 innings then why has he never done it, including college?
Glasnow is not perfect, but the Dodgers needed a frontline starter and he has great stuff. I’m not a fan of his, but the contract is reasonable. That’s all I said.
Is Freidman purposely signing and trading for a injured pitchers or are those the type of pitchers that are available? Again, every pitcher has an injury history if you look hard enough. He traded for Lance Lynn, who is one of the few innings eaters in baseball, and that was probably his worst acquisition as a Dodger exec.
*worst outside of Alvarez
Pepiot returned from injury last season and threw 75 pitches or more in 7 of his 8 outings, and averaged 82 pitches per outing. Why would you assume that he wouldn’t be ready by 2024 when he has the entire offseason to rest and restart, and then the entire spring training? That’s absurd. Why would you assume that he couldn’t pitch that amount. Even if you assumed a six man rotation and he averaged the 5.25 IP he did last season that’s over 140 IP. I really don’t understand this absurd rationale.
Dodgers could have obtained a more durable frontline starter before jumping head in with Glasnow.
Of course he’s not doing it on purpose. But this happens every season and you’d think he’s learned his lesson by now.
Lynn is a separate case. Most of us knew that was a disaster waiting to happen. I’m not saying obtain an innings eater for the sake of it. I love it how it has to be mutually exclusive. Acquire a shtty innings eater or go with a guy that’s always hurt. Plenty of options out there that don’t touch both extremes.
mlbdf
“Let’s face it the Dodgers completely ignore health of pitchers. ”
What a ridiculous thing to say. The absolutely do not.
They are severe risk takers in this category.”
This is much closer to the truth.
“
You can assume that Pepiot isn’t some kinda innings eater because that’s what the scouts said about him coming up through the farm. A lot of people thought he was a reliever. An extra 40 innings from his career high is a lot from a young developing starting pitcher. This isn’t a video game. You can’t just jump from 100 innings to 150ish without there being consequences. That’s why a lot of young pitchers get shut down after they reach a certain threshold. I assume this is why the Dodgers traded him because they’re a WS contender and don’t want to baby anymore young pitchers along (they already have enough).
That’s actually the opposite of what I’ve heard and read. One such report quote. “Prototype innings-eater build; strong base; toned calves, tree trunk legs; thick lower half; well-built upper body; physically maxed out.” The knock on Pepiot has always been command, and not durability. The command looked much better last season. Perhaps the Dodgers are betting against him on that area but first time someone has brought up durability. If that’s a concern not sure why they would trade for Glasnow. That’s not an upgrade on durability.
It’s done all the time. Buehler went from 98 IP prior season to over 153 IP his first full season with Dodgers. And Pepiot is older. He has been pitching for a longer time frame. Someone moving the goal posts. You said Pepiot is not stretched out to 120 innings which I pushed back on, and now you’re saying 150 innings. Interesting how that works. So, now he is ready for 120 innings, but not 150? Which one is it?
I understand that MLB teams handle kid pitchers with kid gloves. Pepiot has been around longer. And while he hasn’t pitched as much late including his 2023 injury I don’t think the Dodgers would have restricted his innings to less than 120 innings. Plenty of Dodger pitchers in similar cases that have gone beyond 120 innings.
The Dodgers traded him because they needed to upgrade their starting rotation, which was a very mediocre starting pitching staff. That’s what happens when starting pitchers go down with injuries and you fill the rotations with younger and less experienced pitchers. They have too many young pitchers and needed to obtain more seasoned SPs. Nobody is arguing there. Pepiot would have given the Dodgers more than 120 innings pitched. That’s not why he got traded. If so, there are other guys that would have given you less innings than Pepiot.
Fair enough they are severe risk takers in that area. Need only look at the last two contracts they have given out to see that they are willing to roll the dice on pitchers with sketch pitching health.
Dodgers clearly threw out Glasnow’s medical records and IP stats column deleted in their Excel model. Talk about playing with fire. This contract has the highest degree of risk.
This LA remember they have to have the stars, do you think this team would draw with 2nd tier no-names in thier lineup? This team has to have stars and stars make top dollars, look Lebron with the Lakers, Kawhi and George with the Clippers. The Rams have Donaldson, it is just part of being part of the LA sports scene. If they had to settle for no-names the Dodgers would not draw a crowd of 15 to 20,000 a game.
I don’t consider Glasnow a star. You know star pitchers usually pitch for more than 120 innings per season. Given that he’s never come close to pitching ONE full season how can you call him a star.
There are star pitchers out there with much better injury profiles. Yamamoto, Cease, Burnes for starters. Extending him for such a long contract is a head scratcher. No pushback from Glasnow of course. He’s probably thinking what the heck just happened. Take the money and get as much length on this contract as possible.
Glasnow is like Syndergaard 2.0
What kind of players did the Rays get? Like Dodgers top 10 prospects?
No, mid-teens. Pepiot has potential, but he’s had control issues, and last season was the best he’s ever pitched, at any level. So, either the Dodgers are selling high, or he’s turned a corner. His ceiling is probably a #2 or #3 starter. His floor is probably long reliever #5 or reliever. De Luca has speed, a solid hit tool, decent power (15-20), and good defensively. A comp would be Kiermaier or Pillar.
Money aside, Glasnow’s injury history is concerning. I would rather he signed a one year deal to show he can stay healthy like many in his situation have. I guess we’ll see if the Dodgers know what they’re doing.
Crazy to see so many having issues with the LAD spending $$$ on FA, they passed on Seager, Bellinger; missed on Turner.
Most of the LAD success comes from player development (both prospects and cast offs). CK, Buehler, May, Gonsolin, Urias, Miller, Grove, Sheehan…all home grown. God forbid they take a chance on an elite arm. All pitchers are a risk to go down.
Freeman and Ohtani are actully the only true major FA signings in the past 5 years, there have been some kep additions via trade, mainly Betts and Turner, but LAD still primarliy feeds thier talent via the farm.
I agree for the most part that all pitchers are a risk to go down. But Glasgow has had injury issues for several years in a row. The Dodgers do have a history of working their magic, injury and performance wise, so we’ll see.
60 career starts in parts of EIGHT seasons…
Glasnow’s career high in innings pitched is just 120, which means that he might still be on an innings limit.
Much rather have Glasnow on a prove it one-year deal for $25. million than a guarantee like this which seems like it has little chance of working out well.
Glasnow will need to reverse all historical trends and become the exact opposite of what he has been…
For all of his years in a row
Glasnow has barely pitched over his ten year career. Plenty of bullets left in that gun. Arm is all fixed, well rested and ready to go.
That’s one way to think about it. You must think pitching injuries are random. Mean reversion baby!! Dustin May getting another major surgery on his return season. I don’t think that’s random. Perhaps I’m in the minority. Glasnow is in the tail end of a normal distribution curve when it comes to getting hurt. Almost fell off my chair when I actually took a look at the stats and not just relying on anecdotes. A statistical anomaly. Is that just noise? Usually not.
Injury magic? Feyereisen, Reyes, May (x2), Hamels, Duffy, Buehler, Treinen, D Hudson, Knebel, Heaney, Kahnle, later years Kershaw, R Hill, Cingrani, Ryu after first two seasons, etc. These are just a few of the many. I’m sure I’ve missed many others.
I dont like the trade, I put it at even money Pepiot and DeLuca perform just as well as Glasnow and Margot…so it just ends up being wasted $$$., I think it is a bad trade personally, but Glasnow is the most talented piece in all of this by far…we will see.
Or the Dodgers just sold high on Pepiot. I mean if they thought he was that good (better than Sheehan, Stone, Miller, River Ryan, Knack) don’t you think they’d have kept him? They wouldn’t even let him pitch in the playoffs. In hindsight, they also let Lance Lynn pitch in the playoffs, so there’s that.
They didn’t pass on Seager, they offered him $300M and he didn’t take it.
Good for Seager too!
He will live up to his name after signing a 5 year extension with the dodgers, because his arm will turn into glass now.
Glasnow?
Or glaslater?
no deferred money = Glasnow
In six years with Tampa Bay, Glasnow is 27-16.
27-16 !
Is that really $135MM over 5 years ? He has “electric stuff” but big paydays should be for results and not potentiial.
Agreed but soon a pitcher from Japan who has 0 MLB innings will sign a $250,000,000 deal or more.
The baseball gods are going crazy.
The Dodgers are brain dead giving this guy $135m for his age 31-35 seasons when he’s never been healthy and occasionally has been good. He won’t make 135 starts. He’ll likely cost them $2m per start for 3.80 ERA ball
100% right and amazing that in this era, that’s considered a solid deal by front offices. But what do I know? Dinosaurs like me go back to a time when players had to take off season jobs to “feed their families” and retirement simply meant change of profession
Sheesh, the world has gone crazy
Doesn’t sound crazy at all. Sounds more like they’re getting their true value as the people doing all the work.
Thanks for the good laugh
at any given time there are 780-800 major leaguers at one time. They are the best in the world at what they do. Wouldn’t you want to be paid as such if you were the best at whatever you do? The owners make millions off of their talent, the players deserve to be compensated as they are. The market has dictated that this is the going rate, why are you so against it?
There is this thing called Free Agency. It arose because indentured servitude called the Reserve Clause was totally unfair for 100 years. Karma is brutal.
By my calculations, the (payroll) Dodgers can still take on about $50M and keep their actual salary payments to under $300M for the season, despite luxury tax implications
And he’s going to average about 1 mil per inning pitched based off of his health track record.
Why aren’t the Dodgers getting Snell instead?
They must be worried about all the MLBTR commenters who will dunk on them, saying it’s a crap deal because Snell only throws 5 innings at a time.
Ohtani didn’t approve it.
Good grief. Our rival just got even stronger. The Dragon shall be tough to slay this season, but we can do it under the leadership of our ACE: Local San Diego County kid: Joey Musgrove.
@Matthew Carpenter don’t worry, that Dragon will slay itself, again.
Well, you’re in Atlanta now so enjoy the South.
I’ll never take off my Padres attire no matter what. I’m a Padre for life!
This trade probably doesn’t age well for the Dodgers but if they win the WS this year it will be worth it. Here’s to this year’s Champions & Ryan Pepiot winning the AL Cy Young!
So, he had a $15mm+ CBT hit for this year based on his previous Rays two-year contract. So that evaporates for this season, and turns it into a $27mm/yr CBT hit for the next five years? The bad news just keeps flowing from this trade/extension.
no
Terrible contract. Great talent, but in NINE YEARS has only gone at least 100 innings ONCE. Seems like a waste of money to me.
The Dodgers will now defer Glasnow’s money
You do realize that only players can decide to defer, teams cannot make that decision. They can only honor a PLAYER’s request. Thus, Glasnow is not deferring a dollar.
I think it was supposed to be a joke
If, 30 games into the season, the Dodgers aren’t at least 24-6, Roberts is gone. The demand for perfection will be unmatched.
How does this whole talking to the player about an extension while discussing a trade work? It seems like it’s really putting the player on the spot like..hey we have a deal but they want to know if you will sign an extension or it’s a no go. That’s very awkward. I’m not saying it’s not in his interest. He rarely pitches and a 100m guarantee is a good deal considering that.
$30M a year for 60 inning pitched…LOL.
Nice math
What’s even more ridiculous is paying Ohtani that kind of money and he’s already had 2 TJ surgeries
1 TJ surgery, a ligament repair and a partridge in a pear tree
His injury history is just as bad as Rodon, his career innings max is 120. Unlikely he will last and be a factor in the playoffs, but a world of talent if he miraculously stays healthy for once. They definitely need a backup plan. Would not surprise me if they landed Yamamoto, the Japan/Ohtani connection is too huge a selling point to write off the possibility.
Dodgers will win 122 games during the regular season setting a Major League record and go winless in the playoffs to a Wild Card team with only 81 regular season wins. Then the Dodgers will extend Dave Roberts for another 5 years and make him the highest paid manager in MLB history although deferred over 20 years.
Dodgers just need Corbin Burns and Willy Adames to round out the team.
This one seems odd.
Glasnow’s a great pitcher but in a division lacking any other powerhouse the Dodgers should be priming for the postseason, which means an ace or #2A that’s ***probably going to be there in October.***
That’s not Glasnow. It is, however, Jordan Montgomery, for an AAV that’s not much higher than what LA is paying here. Glasnow’s a half time pitcher. This is buying ace stuff for a pro rated $54m a year. There’s no way the Dodgers can have confidence that his surgery has made Glasnow a 160 inning SP, let alone a 190 innings SP, and Glasnow gets hurt so often (324 innings in 2018-2022) you can’t even TRY to time him to be healthy in October.
Anyone else glad the braves didn’t trade Smith-Shawver for Glasnow?
The Rays.
I am concerned about Glasgow’s durability for sure. But, his injury last year as no different and lesser than Pepiot’s – oblique, not arm or shoulder. And the issues with innings the three years prior was really just 2020 being a short season and TWO years because of the same issue – TJ. So, it is very possible the injury prone criticism is a bit overblown here!
I am not just concerned about Glasgow, I am concerned about all of Scotland.
Glasnow is injury prone pure and simple.
This could very well be another Strasburg type contract.
I did not read the article or voluminous comments but I do not know how he could have held this trade up for him to get an extension.
That’s risky for someone that’s never made 30 starts.
Dodgers have an overrated rotation with many question marks.
They have secret weapons incoming…Julio Urias and Trevor Bauer!
Dodgers 2024 Rotation:
#1 Yamamoto
#2 Buheler
#3 Snell
#4 Miller
#5 Glasnow
Kershaw and May up by mid-season.
May is highly unlikely to pitch in 2024, better chance he is never a starter again than he pitches at all in 2024.
Kershaw may be ready in August, but still a good chance he does not pitch in 2024.
Dodgers have ZERO interest in Snell.
Yamamoto is still just an outside chance, as the Yankees are still more likely to sign him.
Buehler will not be in the opening day rotation.
Sheehan is the Current number three starter in the March/April rotation.
At least the Dodgers spend not like my Fraudres.
Fraudres ownership stinks.
May would be filthy as a closer. Plus he’s got the sideshow red hair flying while he’s throwing 100 with video game movement. Unfortunately, this guys elbow is about to fall out.
A lot of money for an injury-prone player that can’t pitch more than 100 innings in a season.
I always thought Glasnow was solid but the stats all don’t show that. Still, he is a great pitcher, though often injured. Rays easily win another trade, considering how they basically got the postseason without him anyway last year.
I can’t wait to see the heads explode around here when Yamamoto signs with the Dodgers. It’ll be like a second Xmas!
Finalize it. I’m tired of the headline!
Stupid trade and even dumber extension. AF got played like a cheap fiddle.
Those dollars for Glasnow don’t seem reasonable for him. But, kudos to him for someone willing to pay it.