The Dodgers’ acquisition of Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot from the Rays was contingent upon the former agreeing to a contract extension, and a new deal between Glasnow and L.A. is now nearly complete. The Wasserman client will reportedly earn an additional $110MM over four years on top of the $25MM he’d been slated to earn. Glasnow will earn $90MM from 2025-27, and the Dodgers hold a $30MM club option on the 2028 season. If they decline their end, Glasnow has a $20MM player option (thus accounting for the $110MM in guaranteed new money). There’s no deferred money on the contract, which will be considered a five-year, $135MM deal for luxury tax purposes (equating to a $27MM per year hit).
Glasnow, 30, stands as the first notable starting pitching upgrade the Dodgers have made this offseason. His acquisition gives them a top-of-the-rotation talent to bolster the roster — albeit one who’s spent more time on the injured list than the active roster in his career. Last season’s 21 starts and 120 innings were both career-high marks for the 6’8″ right-hander, who has missed time due to Tommy John surgery, a forearm strain, an elbow strain and a significant oblique strain that kept him out for two months to begin the 2023 season.
When he’s been healthy, however, Glasnow has been nothing short of excellent. Since being traded from the Pirates, his original organization, to the Rays in the 2018 Chris Archer heist, Glasnow has worked to a 3.20 earned run average, fanned an enormous 34.1% of his opponents and coupled that with a sharp 7.8% walk rate. He’s long had better-than-average grounder rates, but last year’s 52.1% mark was a career-best. He also notched a huge 16.5% swinging-strike rate that ranked second among all pitchers with at least 100 innings.
It’s a considerable bet to make on a pitcher who’s never topped 120 innings — easily the largest contract ever for anyone with such a limited track record of durability. There is, of course, a lot more nuance to Glasnow’s injury history than that 120 number, which MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes outlined in an article this afternoon for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers. By the way, if you sign up for Front Office, we’ll be happy to send you any recent articles.
The four-year, $110MM in new money and effective five-year, $135MM term of Glasnow’s contract (for luxury tax purposes) roughly fall in line with previous extensions for high-end pitchers with injury concerns. Jacob deGrom inked a four-year, $120.5MM extension several years ago (prior to opting out and signing with the Rangers), and the contract also generally aligns with the five-year, $145MM term on Chris Sale’s Red Sox extensions. Certainly, the Dodgers will be hoping for better results from their own investment.
The rotation in Los Angeles is slated to consist of Glasnow, Walker Buehler and Bobby Miller, at present. Emmet Sheehan is likely in line for the fourth spot, while Gavin Stone, Michael Grove, Ryan Yarbrough and others battle it out for the fifth spot on the staff. Of course, L.A. is widely expected to continue adding to the starting five, with reported targets including free agents Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Lucas Giolito, in addition to trade target Dylan Cease. It stands to reason there are other pitchers in both markets currently being eyed by president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, GM Brandon Gomes and the Dodger front office.
From a payroll perspective, the Dodgers were already squarely into luxury-tax territory, sitting at a projected $251MM, per Roster Resource. Adding an additional $2MM to account for the new tax hit on Glasnow will push them up to about $253MM, which places them $4MM shy of the second tier of penalty.
The Dodgers’ bottom-line payroll is another story entirely, thanks not only the $680MM in deferred money on Shohei Ohtani’s contract but also the $115MM in deferred money on Mookie Betts’ 12-year deal and the $57MM in deferrals on Freddie Freeman’s six-year contract. They still owe well south of $200MM in terms of actual player salary for the upcoming season, even when factoring in projected arbitration salaries. As such, there’s ample room to continue adding significant pieces to the roster, so long as the Dodgers don’t mind being taxed at increasingly steep rates. They’re a third-time luxury payor, so they’ll be taxed at 62% for any dollars spent from $257MM to $277MM, at 95% from $277MM to $297MM, and a hefty 110% for any dollars spent thereafter.
Beyond landing the biggest fish in the history of free agency and acquiring Glasnow and Margot, the Dodgers have also re-signed Jason Heyward and Joe Kelly, brought Daniel Hudson back on a minor league contract and traded lefty Victor Gonzalez to the Yankees in what’s been an active offseason so far. With clear needs in the rotation and perhaps on the bench and in the bullpen, it’s highly unlikely that Friedman, Gomes & co. will consider this their final significant deal of the winter.
Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times first reported that the extension was all but finalized. ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the terms.
$12 hit to their CBT I heard. Most money deferred until 3056.
I love ❤️ MLBTR, but was this post truly necessary?
Yeah
Millions were asking the question…..”is it almost finalized yet”? That’s why. Edge of your seat stuff.
How you smuggled a heart into your comments is beyond me. I think that’s the first emoticon I’ve ever seen on this blog. What in the heck is going on around here… The Dodgers dodging (taxes), Tim writing fluff pieces, people getting offended about the discussion of trash can abuse in Houston, and now emoticons on MLBTR?!?! Next you’re going to tell me the A’s are moving to Vegas!
✈️
Tim writing that article in defense of Ohtani’s deferred $ was just about the weirdest thing I have ever seen. I only wish I knew the exact dollar amount he was paid to do it. Guessing they offered him 50K.
TrumboRedux
Well it was speculation, and since ohtani outright stated why he signed the deferred contract….
Crickets
TrumboRedux,
Even if that was true, Tim didn’t really receive $50K, because he had the payment deferred.
How the hell Friedman agree with this deal? Margot is below .700 OPS hitter, they should ask Arozarena too IMHO
Margot is just a throw in, the Rays are clearing $6M of his $10M salary (they are sending $4M)
He will be in LA for just this season as a 4th/5th OF
This trade is really Glasnow for two prospects.
Yeah he feels more like a platoon option Heyward
By the end of 2024 a healthy Andy Pages might be getting those platoon reps in RF
exactly what Margot will be. He’s actually a little above average vs LHP hitting-wise, and will most likely platoon with Heyward. Could be worse.
He probably wanted to see if he could get Tampa Bay to send him cash in a deal, just for fun.
Margot helps AF field a RH lineup unable to hit in the postseason
niel – Friedman had to acquire Margot, he’s required to maintain a quota of former Red Sox players.
I’m sure they did ask for Arozarena and TB then asked for 4 more of Dodgers top prospects.
Pepiot isn’t that good.
Maybe ship Margot to the White Sox in a Cease deal. Probably not, but maybe.
If this is a joke, it Cease’s to be funny!
Margot for Yoncada. A deal of Boston letdowns.
Are we talking about him taking on a b.s. contract for one season, so he could get one of the most desired starters on the market?
Maybe you’re refering to the fact that he just paid $165M for a pitcher that has never pitched more than the 120 IP that Glasnow threw in 2023, his previous high was 111.2 IP in 2018, and his third highest inning total was 88 IP in 2021! By the way, his career ERA is 3.89!
So if Glasnow gets you Pepiot, DeLuca, and a $10M salary dump (Margot)…
What does Logan Gilbert get the Mariners with a lower career ERA (3.73), 3 more years of control, making $20M less this year, and having thrown only 34 IP less career than Glasnow (495.2 for Logan vs 529.2 for Tyler), despite being 3.7 years younger and having pitched in 5 less seasons?! I’m going to guess a lot!
I was thinking the same thing about the return for Burnes.
This surprises me. I thought Glasnow would reject an extension and bet on himself. What ya guys think? 6 years 162M? More or less?
Fan – With his medical history, you really think he’d gamble going an entire season without an injury?
It’s the same reason Sale signed a below market extension so quickly, he knew he’d have a hard time staying healthy throughout 2019.
Yeah he is making a solid move for himself. I wonder if that contract could come with an opt out?
@BaseballFan2001,
Opt out?! Where’s he going to want to go? He gets to play for the team he rooted for as a kid, close to his childhood neighborhood and friends, he’s making twice as much as he’s worth due to injuries, and he shows up to play for a perennial 100-win team that includes the best player on the planet, and two more of the best 5-10 hitters in the world. Seems like there’s nowhere else he’d want to be, it’s not like he’ll opt out to go back to Pittsburgh, so he can return to where his career began. Sorry, but that part of the country is a layover, not a destination, and especially for California kids.
Yeah he is definitely making the smart and safe move here.
This is similar to the Carlos Rodon deal for an oft-injured, top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher.
@YankeesBleacherCreature,
Carlos Rodon just called and said he’s offended…. Deeply!
Glasnow most IP: 120 (2023), 111.2 (2018), 88 (2021)
Rodon most IP: 178 (2022), 165 (2016), 139.1 (2015), 132.2 (2021), 120.2 (2018)
Glasnow All-Star appearances….
Rodon’ All-Star appearances 2021, 2022
Glasnow Cy Young votes…
Rodon Cy Young votes: 2021 (5th in AL), 2022 (6th in NL)
Glasnow career IP: 529.2 IP
Rodon career IP: 847.1 IP
Both deals were signed prior to the players age 30 season.
He just got that. Actually he’ll get $165M if they trigger the option and he’s playing close enough to where he grew up that he could hit his house with a thrown baseball, when he’s not consistently on the injured list.
With a wing like Glasnow’s, hanging by a thread, you negotiate like 43 year old Rich Hill and take all the guaranteed money you can possibly get.
wild prediction time! 6yr/175M
5/125
Glasgow’s great great great great great grandchildren will receive most of the salary as it is deferred until 2230.
Nice, now your homeless descendants can say their not-so great, great, great, great, great grand daddy once trolled his extension MLB Trade Rumors.
And whatever you do, just make sure they don’t have to pay too much in taxes.
The top 1% control more wealth than the entire middle class combined.
“combined” lol
I hear most of the payment is deferred as a lunar module.
10 years/ 250M with money going to his grandchildren & deferred until their great grandchildren are in the MLB Draft to where they’re forced to play for the Dodgers or else the deferment is cut off because the dodgers paid a lawyer to make sure that happens and they deferred their contract as well can’t forget that aswell.
Eim
“10 years/ 250M with money going to his grandchildren & deferred until their great grandchildren are in the MLB Draft to where they’re forced to play for the Dodgers or else the deferment is cut off because the dodgers paid a lawyer to make sure that happens and they deferred their contract as well can’t forget that aswell.”
This is the unfortunate outcome when people think they are sufficiently knowledgeable about a topic and funny, and they are neither of those things.
it was a joke… (you didn’t find it funny but others did) read the room please
Eim
“you didn’t find it funny but others did”
One other financial illiterate
Eovaldismemes
Better off ignoring certain people on this site.
Do you bro.
3/90 or 4/120 with heavy incentives that take it to a 6 or 7 year deal.
If the Dodgers sign Yamamoto, I’m rescinding my MLB fandom.
the NHL will gladly take you but i can’t promise it’ll be any better
Why, are the dodger signing NHL players to deferred deals next?
honestly at this rate i wouldn’t be surprised, they’d probably have a heart attack at Ohtani’s deferred contract because that’s more than they’re making in their careers
For bench brawls @GASoxFan
You can’t be mad at The Dodgers for setting themselves up to be able to sign Yamamoto. Be mad at your team for not trying huge difference
many teams don’t have the money to just throw out 200-300M$ contracts
You don’t have to. The D-Backs made it all the way to the World Series last year, with only Ketel Marte making more than 10 mill. Teams that spend resources on scouting and player development are the teams that always compete. Look at the Angels. They spend tons of money on their payroll, but nothing on player development, and they haven’t had a winning season in how long? It’s not about how much you spend, it’s about how you spend it.
Many teams do have the money but choose not to spend.
I already did
I hope he doesn’t go there , phillies need to make a big move. Glasnow is a good pitcher but he’s always a risk because of his injury history
When two months into the season theyre doing a Mets style fire sale sell off youll be back.
Why shouldn’t they? After 2025 the only players they have under contract are Betts, Freeman, and Ohtani (and I suppose Glasnow, in a few minutes).
If you were Yamamoto would you rather sign with the Dodgers or the Mets? Is it LA’s fault Steve Cohen is a fatback grossero who wrecked his organization by thinking “if I can run a hedge fund, how hard can a baseball team be? You just buy guys, right?”
I’m gonna love the reaction if there is any deferred money in this extension. Now that I think about it, why are the Dodgers extending a guy who can’t stay on the field? Oh yeah, BECAUSE THEY CAN.
The Dodgers will be lucky if they get an average of 15 starts per year from Glasnow over the life of the extension. But they have all that money from Ohtani jerseys now.
I’m sure the goal is to monitor his workload each year so he’s providing 120-150 innings in the regular season. That’s doable. Those inning totals would make him elite in terms of production.
150 innings? Please. Glasnow has never gone over 120 innings in his career. He’s only gotten over 100 innings twice. Really, the Dodgers would be incredibly lucky to get an average of 100 innings per year out of him. I’m betting on something more like an average of 80-90 innings, and that might be a stretch.
I said “the goal”, not necessarily what will actually happen.
@Wagner>Cobb
No, the goal is to have Glasnow pitch for LA in the postseason.
That’s it. That’s the goal.
When he’s healthy he’s one of the best pitchers in the game. The Dodgers would be happy if he never pitched more than a tuneup start in late September as long as he was healthy throughout the five postseasons they’ll be in while he’s under contract with them.
If that’s the goal, then he’ll have 1 start per week through the whole season and be limited to 4-5 innings per start regardless of what happens. He will basically throw live bullpens all season for 27 million dollars. I highly doubt that happens since they do still need to make the playoffs each year. The regular season isn’t a formality.
Their rotation is a mess and they don’t play in the NL or AL central. They would very much like a productive regular season from him in addition to a healthy post season. Is him being healthy during the playoffs the primary goal? Obviously. Do they plan on him making spot starts during the regular season? I guess we’ll see, but I highly doubt that.
He’s a perfect guy for a 6 man rotation which they will have next year.
Especially if they get Yamamoto. Shohei (2025), Glasnow, Bueleher (2024) and Yamamoto all need to be in a 6 man rotation.
Don’t jersey sales revenues get split between all teams?
Also: licensing from the 90 or so Japanese products he endorses.
$2M Annually & $??? deferred as long as agreed upon by CBT Tax diversion consultants!
LAD have all the hurt pitchers.
*insert spongebob hospital meme*
The Yankees still have a few of them.
Can’t wait for the Dodgers not to win it all this year after they’ve won the offseason.
I feel like anybody a team wins an offseason, they don’t win it all that year.
Who was the last team that won both the offseason and the ring on the same year? 09′ Yanks?
Money has a bigger effect in getting you a chance to win it all, not winning it all. MLB is a greedy machine that could care less about mid/small markets. Pretty obvious..
Explain the Padres then?
I still remember when TO made all those trades for Reyes, Johnson, a 37 year old knuckleballer, etc., and the press was giddy with excitement
The NYY trade for ARod destroyed competitive balance.
The RS acquiring Crawford & Gonzo,
SD adding so many big names I lost count.
The Mets last year.
So many nothing-burgers. The LAD will be good, but they have been good for like ten years or so.
MFIM
“I feel like anybody a team wins an offseason, they don’t win it all that year”
Bias
EVERY team is more likely to not win the WS than to win it.
Every one
It should be obvious why.
The best teams are something like 3 to 4 times more likely to lose than win
So, OF COURSE, a team that wins the off season isn’t likely to win
But, any chance the Rangers won the offseason?
A Mets’ fan talking about winning the offseason and not winning it all??? Sounds familiar
He’s right though, and spot on with the 09 Yankees
I wonder if the Cardinals will try this with Bieber? If he is hurt and needs a procedure, he could possibly help in the 2nd half. Meanwhile, Lynn and Gibson can take the ball every 5th day.
Mo take action, also acquire Clase. a two in one
The Cardinals don’t have Dodger money to throw around on a big risk.
that’s true. probably just wishful thinking that the rotation won’t have both Lynn & Gibsom come opening day. Bieber, Gray, Mikolas, Matz & Gibson would be pretty good with Lynn at #6.
Massive arm talent paralleled only by his fragility. Dude was born to be a Dodger.
if they get Kershaw back by the break and Glasnow is still healthy, look out. Buehler, Glasnow, Kershaw and Miller is a top of the NL rotation.
With Dustin May back around the same time. That’s a top of MLB rotation with Stone, Grove and Sheehan backing them up. And next year it gets Shohei, Tony Gonsolin, Landon Knack, River Ryan, Nick Frasso…
And quite possibly: Yamamoto, Buehler, Glasnow, Kershaw. And in 2025: Ohtani, Yamamoto, Buehler, Glasnow, Gonsolin, May.
holy smokes!!
8 years in the league and his career high in starts is 21, which it took until year 8 to get. Even after this trade the Dodgers still haven’t added a pitcher that can last a full seaaon. Maybe a Rich Hill reunion while they are at it
How are the Red Sox looking next year? It’s a rhetorical question everyone already knows.
blow’neil will carry them
Better than handcuffing their payroll for a decade, a decade after said player is retired
@Rsox You’d have thought a guy like Kyle Gibson was their perfect fallback position. A genuine, real live number four starting pitcher (not what the loons here think is a four). 92 ERA+ but 180 innings. He’d go 17 and 4 with this Dodger lineup, then be left off their postseason roster.
Remember the article written here was that this ohtani contract wasn’t about manipulating the luxury tax? In fact there were more than a few about it….
From ohtani himself
“I was looking into it, doing some calculations, and I figured if I can defer as much money as I can, that’s gonna help the (collective bargaining tax). That’s gonna help the Dodgers and be able to sign better players and make a better team,” he said. “I felt like that was worth it, and I was willing to go in that direction. That’s why I made that choice.”
He can say that all he wants but no team was going to pay him $70 million a year in real dollars. He wanted to beat Lionel Messi’s $673M+ guarantee, the biggest nominal guarantee for an athlete, and did that with the deferrals. It’s essentially $460M+ plus interest, but $700M sounds more impressive. I would imagine that if a team offered $50M a year for ten years, his agent would have countered with $700 million with all but something like $1.9 deferred to get that record setter.
I think something that people aren’t talking about is how all the pundits were talking about Ohtani getting 50, even 60 million per year, but it essentially came down to “only” 46M per year.
marcfrombrooklyn
So ohtani is a liar? Why would he sign a clause that supports his statement, that the dodgers have to use the savings to get more talent? Why would that matter if he just wanted the money?
Idk I don’t think ohtani is a liar, I think he means what he says. And frankly, it makes sense from his point of view, to be on the best team possible.
Man, I know he has injury history, but this seems like a deal. Feels like next summer he could command quite a bit more.
He’s going to be 31 next year. That’s a pretty good deal for Glasnow.
I think you’re really underselling how deep that injury history is. It isn’t a “deal” for the Dodgers. It is, at best, market value.
I agree. If some other team did this deal, I’d probably be on here calling it the dumbest contract ever. It might be
It’s so clearly an overpay that it’s mystifying. Glasnow’s a 2 WAR pitcher—in his good years.
Why trade two useful players in Pepiot and DeLuca for the privilege of overpaying Glasnow $25m in 2024 when Snell and Montgomery are available in FA? The Mets would have thrown Mark Vientos or Brett Baty at you for Pepiot and DeLuca (maybe both), so you missed out on a kid (or two) who hit for a .925 OPS in AAA and got his feet wet in MLB in 2023, effectively for free.
Has been Mr Glass. Moving forward he could be and likely will be healthier. A elite arm for lower 20m.
I approve this extension. Makes the trade better.
How is Kershaw not mentioned in this article? No way he doesn’t re-sign with them
That is… A lot of money for someone who has quite literally pitched a full 162 game season.
Glasnow has made 60 starts over past 5 years. If he can match that in the next 5 years the Dodgers will only pay $2,250,000 mil per start!
Let’s not get carried away. He’s getting older. Let’s not expect too much from him.
$27 million a year is a whole lot to guarantee a guy who has been injured more than not.
Why would the previous AAV have been pegged at $25M when the average of the contract he signed was $15M?
The rays signed him to a 2 year 30 million dollar deal. They got a 15 aav. The dodgers traded for 1 year and he’s owed 25 million.
Because when traded it’s the money and years left which was 1/25
Thank you, I was unaware the calculation is only applied to what is left.
Man, that’s a lot of money for a guy who never stays healthy. But they gotta spend that Ohtani money.
Looks like $155 million for maybe 80 innings a year. And that’s more innings than Glasnow has actually averaged over his career. And he’s not getting any younger.
Let’s just say those 80 innings better be really good innings. I know, the Dodgers have money to burn and they’re burning it. So what do I care? I don’t have to pay the ridiculous contract.
The Dodgers just won 100 games without any pitcher throwing more than 130 innings. They don’t care how many innings he throws, just that he can be healthy in October.
@math They also gave 65 starts to four guys with a combined ERA of 5.44.
And still won 100.
Is Tyler going to agree only if hes given veto power over future Dodgers personnel decisions like the shady ohtani (worst contract of all time) has??
This must hurt for Dodgers fan. It must be a crushing feeling knowing that you just signed a guy who can’t pitch a full season and spent all of Yamamoto’s money for Glasnow.
The Mets seem to have set a dumb precedent in baseball. Spend tons of millions of dollars on has-been players in hopes they perform well and then end up with a losing record and miss the playoffs. Dodgers copied the Padres and the Padres copied the Mets. Some could even say this wa started by the Yankees. But the problem is the Yankees’ method of buying championships hasn’t worked in almost 15 years so why any other team thinks this equals a championship doesn’t have a brain
If the Yankees can spend 300 million, so can the dodgers.
Dodgers now at $267 million payroll includes luxury tax hit per Cotts and they still need to sign 2 more starters and a Closer. Dodgers are going to blow past Cohen tax even with deferring $680 million !!!! Add Yamamoto and others they likely end up with a $325+ million payroll and another $55 million luxury tax penalty hit AND $52 million to Yamamoto team for posting fee!!! Yikes! MLB needs a cap as this is ridiculous.
The owners of the orioles will disagree. Every insane dollar paid in the FA market only increases the value of their franchise w all those young controllable players
Did Evan Phillips spontaneously combust? Did he disappear over a waterfall?
Dodgers have a closer already
I don’t even think no cap is even an issue. There’s lots of star players who get paid top dollar and wind up stinking and not even worth 25% of their contract like Giancarlo Stanton, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, etc.
The real issue is the POLAR OPPOSITE; being able to essentially financially control a rookie player for 6 years (obviously with the exception of arbitration).
6 years is a long time to play in the league before free agency and to command your own terms and salary and before being arbitration-eligible. The team can pay you as little as they want even if you put up a 10 WAR season. Essentially, your prime years of baseball are squandered financially by the restrictions of being under team control until 6 years of service in the MLB has been obtained
100% right yanks. Young players, stars in particular get hosed early on in their career. The whole system needs to be turned on it’s head but neither side would go for it.
So basically, they added 4 years at 27.5 per year. It’s 5 years at it’s a 5/135 (27 AAV) gives Glasnow the ability to make it a 6/155.
From a pure talent point of view, very good deal for the Dodgers. But considering his historical inability to stay on the field, too high risk for my blood. Dodgers believe in quality over quantity. Which makes some sense when what you really need are TOP guys for the postseason. But will they be healthy then??!! (Dodgers have lots of good to great arms to eat up in-season innings).
Bottom line: Feels a bit desperate to me. But admittedly, I am high on Pepiot after last season. And guessing they went bird in the hand with Glasnow over Cease and that Burnes might get held and if not, he’s a Boras client that you couldn’t trade for and extend
I’m not high on pepiot, a little, and I am high on Glasnow. That said they paid a fortune for all this in both prospect dollars and cap dollars. Bad move by the dodgers !
SOX are likely asking for a ton of prospects for Cease, so Glasnow likely cost significantly less. LAD’s deep pockets nullify the short-term cash savings Cease would represent unless they didn’t want to pay the severe 3rd-tier penalty they’re likely to now incur.
LAD, ATL, TEX & NYY on a truly different level than the rest of the league, with the Mets in a category all their own.
I do NOT want Cease. Huge red flags on important command and dominance metrics. Glasnow was much better option.
OK. I am revising my “grade”. It’s a 4 year deal that Glasnow can make 5 years. That’s much better – IMO. If Glasnow is healthy, and the Dodgers want him, they get a fifth year., not sixth. If Glasnow is healthy and the Dodgers want to move on, he will probably opt out and sign for more money and years elsewhere. Still a risk, but slightly less of one than previously reported. Still would not be surprised if Pepiot has a better overall year.
@Echopark The Dodgers REALLY, REALLY, REALLY want aces for the postseason. They don’t care about Pepiot except to the extent that he helps them add an ace.
Pepiot’s FIP, career, is 4.76, in 78 innings. He’s already 25; 26 in 2024. He’s a two pitch pitcher who is probably better off in the bullpen if he can’t develop a third pitch. There’s a lot not to like here.
Oh, and I’d flip Margot asap and sign Kike or Duvall instead.
I would too if I could get a taker.
Keep rejoicing Dodger fans. Keep piling up the injury riddled players. Your future is limited with these moves.
Even if the Dodgers add a SP like Yamamoto or Snell or Woodruff the Braves are a Better Team and don’t let Philadelphia get one of those!
Dodgers are Not a playoff team
You kindve went to far when you said they weren’t a playoff team. They definitely make the playoffs.
If LA gets Yamamoto Atlanta isn’t close to LA.
No they are still way better. Didn’t need to make moves and way younger.
Yamamoto has NOT proven crap at the mlb level so lets wait until has to use a bigger baseball that will hinder his grip and pitching every 5 days will ultimately send him to TJ surgery like most of these Japanese pitchers
@Senioreditor Amusing, anyway.
Phillies live rent free in braves heads for the playoffs
I still think LAD gets Yamamoto and trades for Cease, they have the ammo for both. They will shed 55M of payroll next year and still have several top prospects they can afford to deal.
Wow ! That turned into a terrible move by the dodgers ! Good luck w that contract !!
All this hubbub and all that money for a DH who may never be the same pitcher again and one that is .500. These two moves would kill a team but it’s the dodgers so they’ll be okay
Heyman is reporting that Glasnow has boarded a plane to Toronto;
Tyler Glasnow is the perfect Dodgers pitcher. Often injured and terrible in the playoffs.
Has anybody else heard that the Dodgers are talking to Hader to be their closer maybe signing him to a one year deal for 25 million.??
Wow, $150M guaranteed.
It’s $110M guaranteed….still a huge gamble.
Dodgers signed the deal b/c they wanted rotation certainty. 🙂
Wrong guy to sign for that.
I think he means certainty that Glasnow will be hurt.
Dodgers 1st pro sports team with a billion dollar payroll for players they are the big reason why MLB baseball needs a hard salary cap and the truth is the players will never agree to it
Bet you weren’t saying anything when the Padres were signing free agents left and right the past couple seasons. It’s jealousy. Take it on on your team’s owner if he isn’t spending the revenue on players to field a winner.
They don’t even have the highest payroll in baseball.
spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/
The LAD are currently #5 in payroll for 2024 according to my calculations.
Breaking – The Dodgers are reported to be deferring $149,999,999.99 of the reported $150M extension. Some have been going so far as to speculate that the payment terms extend into the year 2085 with a clause included to allow for descendants to inherit the contract should Tyler pass prior to its resolution.
This joke stopped being funny after the first 500 times
Nobody cares about your opinion. Thanks for playing.
Back at ya
Contract prediction: Well I got the 3 year extension length correct on previous post last night. But was light on the money at $60M guaranteed. Really thought there would be IP incentives, Glasnow has so much injury history. But the Dodgers are able to throw around stupid money, thanks to the Shohei deferral.
Does this by itself satisfy the Ohtani contract provision that the Dodgers spend the $ savings from the deferrals? Ohtani $46m + Glasnow $27m > $70m.
Friedman gave him an extra 100 million just because he pitched for the Rays lol.
So, even though it’s actually only a four year extension, for luxury tax purposes, it’s 135M over 5 years, which comes to 27M per in AAV.
Folks, this is the going rate for a #2 starter. This is actually a reasonable contract, all things considered. It’s the same deal as Sonny Gray, but just 2 years longer because Glasnow is much younger than Gray.
Is this a reasonable rate for a starter that misses more starts than he starts?
Look at the innings pitchers leaders. No one is throwing 200 IPs anymore, nor should they. Throwing a baseball is not a nature motion and every pitcher is an injury concern.
The pitcher the Dodgers traded in this deal has barely even thrown 100 innings in a pro season.
C’mon don’t insult our intelligence. 200 IPs? Laughable given that Glasnow has never topped 120. And he’s only topped 100 IPs twice in seven plus seasons. 100 IP is the new 200 IP?
Big difference between the traded pitcher and Glasnow. Traded pitcher has a much shorter track record in MLB. We don’t really know his injury risk going forward. Glasnow we definitely know.
Let’s face it the Dodgers completely ignore health of pitchers. They are severe risk takers in this category. They sign pitchers to two year contracts when said pitcher can’t pitch in the current season. Or they sign pitchers who are still hurt and many don’t end up pitching a single inning. Or inexplicably they pick up an expensive option of an injured pitcher (Treinen). Many cases where Dodgers got burned in this category. Dodgers giving away free money. Even the Ohtani contract is filled with long-term risk if his pitching health is jeopardized in the future. There must be a Friedman rule/train of thought that injuries don’t matter. Capitalize on that fear. It’s actually come back to burn him more than payoff. The only time I saw it pay off was drafting Walker Buehler when he was scheduled for TJS. Then of course he ended up getting a second TJS, and potentially lost to free agency after 2024.
Glasnow is only 5 years older than Pepiot. Pepiot is not even stretched out to throw 120 innings. He fell to the Dodgers in the draft because he was an injury risk in college, which again, is like 97% of all starters in pro ball, with the exception being guys like Gerrit Cole and Logan Webb. You list the injury history of the Dodgers but it’s like that with every team in baseball. Pitchers are getting hurt more often because they’re being told to max out in velocity. Again, this is not a Dodger problem, this is a baseball problem.
Also, starting pitching is not what it once was. The Rangers won the World Series with 2 healthy, productive starters. Same with the Braves in 2021. The Dodgers were doing 5 and dive in 2020. Hell, the Dodgers won 100 games last year when they were starting 4 rookies in August and September.
Pepiot is ready to throw 12o innings. No restrictions. Where did you get that? Even if they skipped him a couple of times and limited him to 5 IP per start he’d probably pitch more innings than Glasnow.
You honestly believe with Glasnow’s history that he is in the “97% of all starters” category? You must be his agent or something. I guarantee you that Glasnow will be injured in 2024 because he’s been hurt every year. The question is when. Hopefully it’s earlier in the season.
Injuries are definitely up. Nobody disputes that. But the Dodgers under Friedman takes way more risk. He’s signed so many guys who have a low risk of pitching in the season.
Pitching still matters as we saw in the 2023 postseason for the Dodgers. Pitching rookies and struggling veterans and look how great that postseason turned out!!! We all knew that the Dodgers didn’t have enough starting pitching coming into the postseason and it played out. The offense didn’t perform as well but I would roll with that offense again (plus Ohtani sure hleps) and bet that results would be different. With the starting pitching I’d tell you that you’d get similar results. The kids pitched good enough during the season with a great offense behind it, but they struggled for most of the season. But come playoff time the starting pitching weaknesses are magnified and the Dodgers got exposed.
Pepiot literally missed about 4 months this past season lol. If he’s stretched out for 120 innings then why has he never done it, including college?
Glasnow is not perfect, but the Dodgers needed a frontline starter and he has great stuff. I’m not a fan of his, but the contract is reasonable. That’s all I said.
Is Freidman purposely signing and trading for a injured pitchers or are those the type of pitchers that are available? Again, every pitcher has an injury history if you look hard enough. He traded for Lance Lynn, who is one of the few innings eaters in baseball, and that was probably his worst acquisition as a Dodger exec.
*worst outside of Alvarez
Pepiot returned from injury last season and threw 75 pitches or more in 7 of his 8 outings, and averaged 82 pitches per outing. Why would you assume that he wouldn’t be ready by 2024 when he has the entire offseason to rest and restart, and then the entire spring training? That’s absurd. Why would you assume that he couldn’t pitch that amount. Even if you assumed a six man rotation and he averaged the 5.25 IP he did last season that’s over 140 IP. I really don’t understand this absurd rationale.
Dodgers could have obtained a more durable frontline starter before jumping head in with Glasnow.
Of course he’s not doing it on purpose. But this happens every season and you’d think he’s learned his lesson by now.
Lynn is a separate case. Most of us knew that was a disaster waiting to happen. I’m not saying obtain an innings eater for the sake of it. I love it how it has to be mutually exclusive. Acquire a shtty innings eater or go with a guy that’s always hurt. Plenty of options out there that don’t touch both extremes.
mlbdf
“Let’s face it the Dodgers completely ignore health of pitchers. ”
What a ridiculous thing to say. The absolutely do not.
They are severe risk takers in this category.”
This is much closer to the truth.
“
You can assume that Pepiot isn’t some kinda innings eater because that’s what the scouts said about him coming up through the farm. A lot of people thought he was a reliever. An extra 40 innings from his career high is a lot from a young developing starting pitcher. This isn’t a video game. You can’t just jump from 100 innings to 150ish without there being consequences. That’s why a lot of young pitchers get shut down after they reach a certain threshold. I assume this is why the Dodgers traded him because they’re a WS contender and don’t want to baby anymore young pitchers along (they already have enough).
That’s actually the opposite of what I’ve heard and read. One such report quote. “Prototype innings-eater build; strong base; toned calves, tree trunk legs; thick lower half; well-built upper body; physically maxed out.” The knock on Pepiot has always been command, and not durability. The command looked much better last season. Perhaps the Dodgers are betting against him on that area but first time someone has brought up durability. If that’s a concern not sure why they would trade for Glasnow. That’s not an upgrade on durability.
It’s done all the time. Buehler went from 98 IP prior season to over 153 IP his first full season with Dodgers. And Pepiot is older. He has been pitching for a longer time frame. Someone moving the goal posts. You said Pepiot is not stretched out to 120 innings which I pushed back on, and now you’re saying 150 innings. Interesting how that works. So, now he is ready for 120 innings, but not 150? Which one is it?
I understand that MLB teams handle kid pitchers with kid gloves. Pepiot has been around longer. And while he hasn’t pitched as much late including his 2023 injury I don’t think the Dodgers would have restricted his innings to less than 120 innings. Plenty of Dodger pitchers in similar cases that have gone beyond 120 innings.
The Dodgers traded him because they needed to upgrade their starting rotation, which was a very mediocre starting pitching staff. That’s what happens when starting pitchers go down with injuries and you fill the rotations with younger and less experienced pitchers. They have too many young pitchers and needed to obtain more seasoned SPs. Nobody is arguing there. Pepiot would have given the Dodgers more than 120 innings pitched. That’s not why he got traded. If so, there are other guys that would have given you less innings than Pepiot.
Fair enough they are severe risk takers in that area. Need only look at the last two contracts they have given out to see that they are willing to roll the dice on pitchers with sketch pitching health.
Dodgers clearly threw out Glasnow’s medical records and IP stats column deleted in their Excel model. Talk about playing with fire. This contract has the highest degree of risk.
This LA remember they have to have the stars, do you think this team would draw with 2nd tier no-names in thier lineup? This team has to have stars and stars make top dollars, look Lebron with the Lakers, Kawhi and George with the Clippers. The Rams have Donaldson, it is just part of being part of the LA sports scene. If they had to settle for no-names the Dodgers would not draw a crowd of 15 to 20,000 a game.
I don’t consider Glasnow a star. You know star pitchers usually pitch for more than 120 innings per season. Given that he’s never come close to pitching ONE full season how can you call him a star.
There are star pitchers out there with much better injury profiles. Yamamoto, Cease, Burnes for starters. Extending him for such a long contract is a head scratcher. No pushback from Glasnow of course. He’s probably thinking what the heck just happened. Take the money and get as much length on this contract as possible.
Glasnow is like Syndergaard 2.0
What kind of players did the Rays get? Like Dodgers top 10 prospects?
No, mid-teens. Pepiot has potential, but he’s had control issues, and last season was the best he’s ever pitched, at any level. So, either the Dodgers are selling high, or he’s turned a corner. His ceiling is probably a #2 or #3 starter. His floor is probably long reliever #5 or reliever. De Luca has speed, a solid hit tool, decent power (15-20), and good defensively. A comp would be Kiermaier or Pillar.
Money aside, Glasnow’s injury history is concerning. I would rather he signed a one year deal to show he can stay healthy like many in his situation have. I guess we’ll see if the Dodgers know what they’re doing.
Crazy to see so many having issues with the LAD spending $$$ on FA, they passed on Seager, Bellinger; missed on Turner.
Most of the LAD success comes from player development (both prospects and cast offs). CK, Buehler, May, Gonsolin, Urias, Miller, Grove, Sheehan…all home grown. God forbid they take a chance on an elite arm. All pitchers are a risk to go down.
Freeman and Ohtani are actully the only true major FA signings in the past 5 years, there have been some kep additions via trade, mainly Betts and Turner, but LAD still primarliy feeds thier talent via the farm.
I agree for the most part that all pitchers are a risk to go down. But Glasgow has had injury issues for several years in a row. The Dodgers do have a history of working their magic, injury and performance wise, so we’ll see.
60 career starts in parts of EIGHT seasons…
Glasnow’s career high in innings pitched is just 120, which means that he might still be on an innings limit.
Much rather have Glasnow on a prove it one-year deal for $25. million than a guarantee like this which seems like it has little chance of working out well.
Glasnow will need to reverse all historical trends and become the exact opposite of what he has been…
For all of his years in a row
Glasnow has barely pitched over his ten year career. Plenty of bullets left in that gun. Arm is all fixed, well rested and ready to go.
That’s one way to think about it. You must think pitching injuries are random. Mean reversion baby!! Dustin May getting another major surgery on his return season. I don’t think that’s random. Perhaps I’m in the minority. Glasnow is in the tail end of a normal distribution curve when it comes to getting hurt. Almost fell off my chair when I actually took a look at the stats and not just relying on anecdotes. A statistical anomaly. Is that just noise? Usually not.
Injury magic? Feyereisen, Reyes, May (x2), Hamels, Duffy, Buehler, Treinen, D Hudson, Knebel, Heaney, Kahnle, later years Kershaw, R Hill, Cingrani, Ryu after first two seasons, etc. These are just a few of the many. I’m sure I’ve missed many others.
I dont like the trade, I put it at even money Pepiot and DeLuca perform just as well as Glasnow and Margot…so it just ends up being wasted $$$., I think it is a bad trade personally, but Glasnow is the most talented piece in all of this by far…we will see.
Or the Dodgers just sold high on Pepiot. I mean if they thought he was that good (better than Sheehan, Stone, Miller, River Ryan, Knack) don’t you think they’d have kept him? They wouldn’t even let him pitch in the playoffs. In hindsight, they also let Lance Lynn pitch in the playoffs, so there’s that.
They didn’t pass on Seager, they offered him $300M and he didn’t take it.
Good for Seager too!
He will live up to his name after signing a 5 year extension with the dodgers, because his arm will turn into glass now.
Glasnow?
Or glaslater?
no deferred money = Glasnow
In six years with Tampa Bay, Glasnow is 27-16.
27-16 !
Is that really $135MM over 5 years ? He has “electric stuff” but big paydays should be for results and not potentiial.
Agreed but soon a pitcher from Japan who has 0 MLB innings will sign a $250,000,000 deal or more.
The baseball gods are going crazy.
The Dodgers are brain dead giving this guy $135m for his age 31-35 seasons when he’s never been healthy and occasionally has been good. He won’t make 135 starts. He’ll likely cost them $2m per start for 3.80 ERA ball
100% right and amazing that in this era, that’s considered a solid deal by front offices. But what do I know? Dinosaurs like me go back to a time when players had to take off season jobs to “feed their families” and retirement simply meant change of profession
Sheesh, the world has gone crazy
Doesn’t sound crazy at all. Sounds more like they’re getting their true value as the people doing all the work.
Thanks for the good laugh
at any given time there are 780-800 major leaguers at one time. They are the best in the world at what they do. Wouldn’t you want to be paid as such if you were the best at whatever you do? The owners make millions off of their talent, the players deserve to be compensated as they are. The market has dictated that this is the going rate, why are you so against it?
There is this thing called Free Agency. It arose because indentured servitude called the Reserve Clause was totally unfair for 100 years. Karma is brutal.
By my calculations, the (payroll) Dodgers can still take on about $50M and keep their actual salary payments to under $300M for the season, despite luxury tax implications
And he’s going to average about 1 mil per inning pitched based off of his health track record.
Why aren’t the Dodgers getting Snell instead?
They must be worried about all the MLBTR commenters who will dunk on them, saying it’s a crap deal because Snell only throws 5 innings at a time.
Ohtani didn’t approve it.
Good grief. Our rival just got even stronger. The Dragon shall be tough to slay this season, but we can do it under the leadership of our ACE: Local San Diego County kid: Joey Musgrove.
@Matthew Carpenter don’t worry, that Dragon will slay itself, again.
Well, you’re in Atlanta now so enjoy the South.
I’ll never take off my Padres attire no matter what. I’m a Padre for life!
This trade probably doesn’t age well for the Dodgers but if they win the WS this year it will be worth it. Here’s to this year’s Champions & Ryan Pepiot winning the AL Cy Young!
So, he had a $15mm+ CBT hit for this year based on his previous Rays two-year contract. So that evaporates for this season, and turns it into a $27mm/yr CBT hit for the next five years? The bad news just keeps flowing from this trade/extension.
no
Terrible contract. Great talent, but in NINE YEARS has only gone at least 100 innings ONCE. Seems like a waste of money to me.
The Dodgers will now defer Glasnow’s money
You do realize that only players can decide to defer, teams cannot make that decision. They can only honor a PLAYER’s request. Thus, Glasnow is not deferring a dollar.
I think it was supposed to be a joke
If, 30 games into the season, the Dodgers aren’t at least 24-6, Roberts is gone. The demand for perfection will be unmatched.
How does this whole talking to the player about an extension while discussing a trade work? It seems like it’s really putting the player on the spot like..hey we have a deal but they want to know if you will sign an extension or it’s a no go. That’s very awkward. I’m not saying it’s not in his interest. He rarely pitches and a 100m guarantee is a good deal considering that.
$30M a year for 60 inning pitched…LOL.
Nice math
What’s even more ridiculous is paying Ohtani that kind of money and he’s already had 2 TJ surgeries
1 TJ surgery, a ligament repair and a partridge in a pear tree
His injury history is just as bad as Rodon, his career innings max is 120. Unlikely he will last and be a factor in the playoffs, but a world of talent if he miraculously stays healthy for once. They definitely need a backup plan. Would not surprise me if they landed Yamamoto, the Japan/Ohtani connection is too huge a selling point to write off the possibility.
Dodgers will win 122 games during the regular season setting a Major League record and go winless in the playoffs to a Wild Card team with only 81 regular season wins. Then the Dodgers will extend Dave Roberts for another 5 years and make him the highest paid manager in MLB history although deferred over 20 years.
Dodgers just need Corbin Burns and Willy Adames to round out the team.
This one seems odd.
Glasnow’s a great pitcher but in a division lacking any other powerhouse the Dodgers should be priming for the postseason, which means an ace or #2A that’s ***probably going to be there in October.***
That’s not Glasnow. It is, however, Jordan Montgomery, for an AAV that’s not much higher than what LA is paying here. Glasnow’s a half time pitcher. This is buying ace stuff for a pro rated $54m a year. There’s no way the Dodgers can have confidence that his surgery has made Glasnow a 160 inning SP, let alone a 190 innings SP, and Glasnow gets hurt so often (324 innings in 2018-2022) you can’t even TRY to time him to be healthy in October.
Anyone else glad the braves didn’t trade Smith-Shawver for Glasnow?
The Rays.
I am concerned about Glasgow’s durability for sure. But, his injury last year as no different and lesser than Pepiot’s – oblique, not arm or shoulder. And the issues with innings the three years prior was really just 2020 being a short season and TWO years because of the same issue – TJ. So, it is very possible the injury prone criticism is a bit overblown here!
I am not just concerned about Glasgow, I am concerned about all of Scotland.
Glasnow is injury prone pure and simple.
This could very well be another Strasburg type contract.
I did not read the article or voluminous comments but I do not know how he could have held this trade up for him to get an extension.
That’s risky for someone that’s never made 30 starts.
Dodgers have an overrated rotation with many question marks.
They have secret weapons incoming…Julio Urias and Trevor Bauer!
Dodgers 2024 Rotation:
#1 Yamamoto
#2 Buheler
#3 Snell
#4 Miller
#5 Glasnow
Kershaw and May up by mid-season.
May is highly unlikely to pitch in 2024, better chance he is never a starter again than he pitches at all in 2024.
Kershaw may be ready in August, but still a good chance he does not pitch in 2024.
Dodgers have ZERO interest in Snell.
Yamamoto is still just an outside chance, as the Yankees are still more likely to sign him.
Buehler will not be in the opening day rotation.
Sheehan is the Current number three starter in the March/April rotation.
At least the Dodgers spend not like my Fraudres.
Fraudres ownership stinks.
May would be filthy as a closer. Plus he’s got the sideshow red hair flying while he’s throwing 100 with video game movement. Unfortunately, this guys elbow is about to fall out.
A lot of money for an injury-prone player that can’t pitch more than 100 innings in a season.
I always thought Glasnow was solid but the stats all don’t show that. Still, he is a great pitcher, though often injured. Rays easily win another trade, considering how they basically got the postseason without him anyway last year.
Great pitcher, in fact.
2019-2023 his ERA+ is 137.
12.5 K/9
2.8 BB/9
1.1 HR/9
6.4 H/9
That’s pretty much Edwin Diaz, but 5 to 7 innings at a time.
I can’t wait to see the heads explode around here when Yamamoto signs with the Dodgers. It’ll be like a second Xmas!
Finalize it. I’m tired of the headline!
Stupid trade and even dumber extension. AF got played like a cheap fiddle.
Those dollars for Glasnow don’t seem reasonable for him. But, kudos to him for someone willing to pay it.