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Free Agent Faceoff: Jorge Soler/J.D. Martinez

By Nick Deeds | December 31, 2023 at 6:54pm CDT

While the current free agent market for position players has generally been seen as one of the weaker ones in recent memory, there is one area where this winter’s crop has notable depth: right-handed sluggers. That market, at which Teoscar Hernandez resides as the clear top option this winter, is typically deepest at the lower levels of free agency. This season’s crop certainly has some depth at that level as well, with the likes of Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham currently available. The middle of the free agent market is where this group stands out, however. Mitch Garver has already landed with the Mariners on a two-year deal, with first baseman Rhys Hoskins and veteran infielder Justin Turner among the other options still available.

Two of the best regarded players in this part of the market are sluggers Jorge Soler and J.D. Martinez. Both are primarily used as designated hitters and are coming off strong platform campaigns that saw them rebound from down performances in the previous three campaigns. Both have flashed 40-homer power in their careers previously, and both project for a similar guarantee this offseason: in our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, MLBTR projected Soler for three years and $45MM guaranteed while Martinez projected for two years and $40MM.

Martinez sports the stronger platform campaign, having slugged 33 home runs in just 479 trips to the plate while slashing .271/.321/.572 with a wRC+ of 135. The veteran slugger also has the more prestigious track record as a six-time All Star who finished fourth in AL MVP voting back in 2018. Since Martinez broke out as a member of the Tigers back in 2014, he’s slashed an impressive .293/.359/.550 while never posting a below-average wRC+ in a full season. During that time, only Manny Machado, Mike Trout, and Nolan Arenado have slugged more homers than Martinez among active players, and his 140 wRC+ during that time ranks 12th among all active players. By contrast, Soler’s career-high wRC+ falls short of that impressive 140 mark and Soler has often interspersed seasons closer to league average between his All Star-caliber peaks.

That being said, Soler has some notable advantages of his own. Most obviously, he’s entering his age-32 campaign, while Martinez turned 36 back in August. That four year age gap also leaves Soler as less of a risk to suffer age-related decline over the course of his next contract. Teams could be particularly concerned about Martinez’s durability after he missed over a month with back and groin issues in 2023, causing him to appear in just 113 games for the Dodgers last season. On the other hand, of course, Soler missed the entire second half of the 2022 season due to a pelvis injury, though he was largely healthy this past season.

Aside from his relative youth and better health in 2023, Soler is among the most reliable players in the game when it comes to drawing walks, as demonstrated by his 11% walk rate since the start of the 2016 season. In fact, Soler is one of just 13 players to post a walk rate over 10% in each of the past eight seasons. That’s a list that does not include Martinez, who last posted a walk rate at that level back in 2019. That steady demonstration of plate discipline also highlights the fact that Soler’s strikeout rate has steadily improved in recent years, even as Martinez’s has begun to balloon.

While Soler’s career strikeout rate of 26.7% is two points higher than Martinez’s own career mark of 24.7%, they’ve been trending in opposite directions. Soler struck out at a career 27.9% clip through the end of the shortened 2020 season, while Martinez sported a strikeout rate of 24.2%. Over the past three seasons, however, Martinez has actually struck out more often than Soler with a 26% strikeout rate against Soler’s 25.1% figure.

Much of that has to do with the 2023 campaign, where Martinez struck out in a career-high 31.1% of plate appearances while Soler’s own 24.3% rate was the second-lowest of his career. While that shift toward whiffs has allowed Martinez to access more of his previous prodigious power after a down season in 2022 that saw him slug just 16 home runs, it’s fair to wonder if some clubs may prefer Soler’s more balanced approach to Martinez’s pure power profile, even as the veteran slugger outperformed Soler by nine points of wRC+ in 2023.

While that may not be enough to make Soler a more attractive target than Martinez, one elephant in the room that has not yet been addressed is defense. Soler’s glove leaves much to be desired, as demonstrated by his -5 Outs Above Average in right field this year and his -29 figure in the outfield since the start of the 2016 season. While Soler’s defense doesn’t offer much value to teams, it can’t be ignored that he is at least capable of playing a corner outfield spot on a semi-regular basis, something that cannot be said for Martinez.

The veteran slugger last appeared regularly on the grass back in 2017, when he was a member of the Diamondbacks before NL teams had access to the DH. By contrast, Soler has made 182 starts in the outfield corners over the past three seasons, more than half of the games he’s appeared in during that time. Even as Soler is far from a quality defender in the outfield, Martinez lacks the ability to play the outfield on more than an emergency basis at this stage of his career, complicating his fit for teams that already have a player on the roster who receives semi-frequent starts at DH or even simply prefer to use the DH as a way to rest regulars throughout the season.

Given the pair’s many similarities, it’s hardly a surprise that the two sluggers have somewhat overlapping markets this winter. Both have been directly to connected to the Mariners and Diamondbacks this offseason, while the Mets, Angels, and Blue Jays are all also known to have at least some interest in adding a bat-first slugger to their lineups this offseason. Martinez has generally been connected to those latter teams more frequently than Soler, though both players figure to be fits for each of the aforementioned teams this offseason to say nothing of clubs like the Marlins and Brewers who have not yet been connected to this area of the market but would surely benefit from another bat-first player in the lineup.

So, which one do you think teams should prioritize? Is Martinez’s lengthy track record and unparalleled power potential too enticing to pass up, or does Soler’s youth, ability to play defense, and more balanced approach in recent years outweigh those considerations?

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Free Agent Faceoff MLBTR Originals J.D. Martinez Jorge Soler

Blue Jays Looking To Add Bat-First Players, Have “Strong Interest” In Joc Pederson
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Mets, Yankees Among Teams With Interest In Gio Urshela
View Comments (45)
Post a Comment

45 Comments

  1. Metsies

    2 years ago

    I love these types of articles

    10
    Reply
  2. 619MetroFriars

    2 years ago

    Why was Matt Carpenter snubbed from this article? He’s another DH seeking a role with someone…..

    Reply
    • deweybelongsinthehall

      2 years ago

      Wouldn’t a better comparison have been Turner v. JDM (round two)?

      2
      Reply
    • FartGod

      2 years ago

      Maybe read the headline? Because the article isn’t titled “DH seeking another role with someone”.
      Or make your own website where you can write this article, then I can ask why it’s not about somebody else completely unrelated.

      14
      Reply
      • 619MetroFriars

        2 years ago

        Matt Carpenter > JD Martinez.

        1
        Reply
        • FartGod

          2 years ago

          John Carpenter>Hector Rodriguez (Local hvac guy)

          10
          Reply
        • deweybelongsinthehall

          2 years ago

          Fart (your name says it all), I was simply comparing players who I thought were a better match to compare due to age, last season when they were basically traded for each other and because they both had solid seasons. People are entitled to their opinions. You can certainly support the article but why so obnoxious in doing so?

          Reply
        • FartGod

          2 years ago

          Dewey, I wasn’t responding to you. In fact my comment mirrors 619s, so not sure how you got the idea I was talking to you. I know the comment system is all messed up, so maybe that’s the case.

          And it’s FartGOD.

          Reply
        • deweybelongsinthehall

          2 years ago

          Yes, I guess I misinterpreted but as for your name, we abbreviate (as you did with referring to me as Dewey) so maybe consider changing it?

          Reply
    • dannysbigboi

      2 years ago

      Matt Carpenter is already under contract for 24 if I’m not mistaken, he got waived but if anyone picks him up it would be for league minimum.

      Reply
    • Jesse Chavez enthusiast

      2 years ago

      You have to be trolling right? JD Martinez is much better. There is a reason the padres gave up a controllable relief arm to get rid of him and there is a reason the braves cut him. People actually want JD Martinez, Carpenter will be lucky to find someone who will pay the league minimum it would cost to snag him now.

      3
      Reply
    • brewpackbuckbadg

      2 years ago

      Will Carpenter be in the league this year? I am guessing MiLB deal at most.

      2
      Reply
  3. Fenway 1

    2 years ago

    JD is better but is too much older than soler

    3
    Reply
    • PutPeteinthehall

      2 years ago

      Soler is a Cuban national. There is a reason to be doubtful about age representation from Cuban players. Reality : Soler is likely close to or the same age as JD.

      JD is better at the plate although Soler can badly play the outfield when needed. With the 26 man roster and universal DH JD will land somewhere where he does not need a fielders glove and rake. Have a feeling if Soler gets a three year deal his bat will retire while he’s still wearing a baseball uniform.

      1
      Reply
      • unpaidobserver

        2 years ago

        While I accept your premise that some Latin players are older than their birth certificates claim Soler had his breakout at 27. Pretty reasonable timeframe.

        2
        Reply
      • FartGod

        2 years ago

        Assuming every Cuban baseball player is older than they say is the same as saying every old white dude in Thailand is a creepy sex tourist.

        It’s usually true. But, only old white dudes get mad with the latter.

        4
        Reply
        • Jesse Chavez enthusiast

          2 years ago

          While I enjoy that comparison I would say documentation has improved since 9/11, it’s harder to for athletes to fake their age these days.

          Reply
        • FartGod

          2 years ago

          Agreed. I was just messing around. It was an absurd comment to point out the absurdity of RJ’s comment.

          Reply
        • Jesse Chavez enthusiast

          2 years ago

          I do really appreciate the comedic relief you are bringing to the site lol

          Reply
        • its_happening

          2 years ago

          Search for MLB players who’ve lied/fudged their age. RJ’s comment not that far out there, or absurd as you called it.

          Reply
      • bart i.

        2 years ago

        Maybe this was true before MLB made some ties with the Cuban baseball federation. There is no way one can fake a birth certificate inside the island, for international purposes perhaps, but then you just need to ask the later.

        Reply
  4. Dbird777

    2 years ago

    Soler would look nice hitting bombis at GABP. If we somehow needed an extra IF in a crowded IF we can take an extra OF in a crowded OF

    2
    Reply
    • This one belongs to the Reds

      2 years ago

      Honestly, they both would hit nice bombs there, but probably no room. Right now, it looks like India and Fraley may be doing DH duty mainly, maybe Stephenson sometimes to give the legs a break. The Reds never seem to have a constant DH like some teams.

      1
      Reply
  5. Whiskey and leather balls

    2 years ago

    Have a feeling whoever signs Martinez will be seeing him on the DL more often than not…god luck with that

    Reply
    • deweybelongsinthehall

      2 years ago

      Isn’t that what was said last season?

      Reply
    • padrepapi

      2 years ago

      J.D. the last 6 years has played in 750 of 860 possible games (86% of them). Not too shabby!

      I doubt he gets 2/40 (I think more like 2/30m with an opt out after year 1)… nice addition at that price.

      I doubt Soler gets 45m, too inconsistent and probably closer to 2/30 as well, but I’d take J.D. of the two at the same price.

      Martinez would look great batting 5th in S.D.

      1
      Reply
  6. deGrom/Langford Texas Ranger

    2 years ago

    Asking who is better in this case is completely different from asking who should get a bigger (longer) deal. The title is misleading. Obviously, the younger guy would be better in 3 or 4 years, but that’s not going to help teams in 2024.

    Reply
  7. DarkSide830

    2 years ago

    JD is usually at or close to 130 OPS+. Soler hasn’t gotten there in 5 years and only last year was he even close.

    3
    Reply
    • DarkSide830

      2 years ago

      Oh, and Soler will get more. But he shouldn’t.

      Reply
  8. stymeedone

    2 years ago

    JDM has a much higher floor than Soler. Solar has a higher ceiling. I would love to see JDM return to Detroit.

    Reply
    • joepanikatthedisco

      2 years ago

      Even in Soler’s flukey best season, Martinez had the exact same WAR and the two of them tied for 21st in MVP voting

      Reply
  9. CeruleanDrew

    2 years ago

    619Metro, if by “better” you mean Carpenter is older, can play defense, and has a longer name (Matthew Martin Lee Carpenter) than Martinez, I’d say meh. By any other metric related to MLB, I’d offer that you’re veering into delusional troll territory. And FartGod, thank you for your concise/hysterical (hvac) offering.

    4
    Reply
  10. Moonlight Graham

    2 years ago

    I like Teoscar Hernandez, but I don’t know that he is the clear top option among right-handed sluggers. I’d rather have JD Martinez for the next couple years. Even if he doesn’t offer any defense, he still mashes.

    Reply
  11. Camden453

    2 years ago

    I choose the neither option

    Soler is 32 and high K rates. Martinez is 36. Mets anyway are better off using Marte at DH and going with defense in the OF

    JD Martinez won’t hit at CitiField at the Mets, Someine tell his agent his career is over if he goes to the Mets

    2
    Reply
  12. CaseyAbell

    2 years ago

    Soler has been basically replacement level over his entire career with the exception of a big outlier season in 2019 (the juiced ball year, as MLBTR loves to remind us). Meanwhile, Martinez has 30.0 bWAR for his career.

    Okay, Soler is a little younger (maybe). But he’s by far the bigger risk for any kind of serious money.

    2
    Reply
  13. This one belongs to the Reds

    2 years ago

    They seem like the same guy. Anyone seen both of them in the same room at the same time?

    Kidding, of course, but they have similar skill sets and both DH guys.

    Only difference I see is Martinez has been more consistent in his career.

    Reply
  14. joepanikatthedisco

    2 years ago

    Soler has had two good seasons since debuting in 2014. Martinez has been good every year since 2014 with the exception of 2020. 5.9 career bWAR versus 30. Martinez is just flat-out better, especially for a 1-year deal.

    1
    Reply
  15. unpaidobserver

    2 years ago

    Quality of contact wise Soler is the better bet.

    Actuality of contact wise JDM wins hands down.

    1
    Reply
  16. MLB Top 100 Commenter

    2 years ago

    About 25 teams could use Martinez or Soler.

    1
    Reply
    • unpaidobserver

      2 years ago

      This is Scott Boras’ point.

      Reply
  17. Randall Charles

    2 years ago

    Mariner’s owners feeling fans anger
    Sign Soler for 3/45 with another 5m per year in incentive bonuses . Incentives starting at .260/.350

    Reply
    • yeasties

      2 years ago

      They just signed Garver, no room for Soler even if they had the money

      Reply
      • Randall Charles

        2 years ago

        Garver
        90 at dh
        20 at catcher

        Soler
        70 at dh
        60 at RF

        Next year Garver takes a player option and leaves
        Julio and Soler are bash bros and hit 40hrs each

        Reply
  18. scottaz

    2 years ago

    Dbacks have been rumored to be in on both J.D. and Soler, but I think after signing Gurriel as a corner OF, the Dbacks need to give him a bunch of 1/2 off days by letting him DH. Therefore, I think the Dback’s thinking has changed from Hazen’s earlier comments about being in the market for a full time DH. I think the Dbacks May instead switch to a shared DH RH/LH share with Lourdes as the RH side and someone like Joc Pederson as the LH side of the share who can also play OF.

    1
    Reply
  19. Murphy NFLD

    2 years ago

    I was voting for JD all offseason but after the article Soler is my choice now. Ive been clamoring all offseason the Bluejays should trade for Eloy Jeminez or Nick Castellanos, Nick preferably. I dont think either would cost a ton to trade for and both have control past this year with Eloy have 1 or 2 options left and Nick a 3 yr 60M contact left that im sure the philly would pay down 15-20m of. Anyway if signing a power bat is the way they chose to go the Soler or Hernandez is my pick and both would be amazing but unlikely. They do need an OF bat with power aswell as a big time DH. Right now the optics of what they are doing look horrendous and if this continues they are likly best served to trade both Vlad and Bo at the deadline and really kick start a rebuild and be competitive again in short order. I want bo to stay but he will be a FA at 26 or 27 so the way contracts are going he looking at 300 as a floor and likely 350-375 over 10-12 yrs

    Reply

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