Of all the names that figure to populate the trade market this offseason, there’s perhaps no starting pitcher more intriguing than former National League Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes. As far as trade options go, Burnes is any team’s best shot at adding a bona fide front-of-the-rotation starter whose salary is in just about any team’s wheelhouse. His durability also sets him apart from some of the other marquee arms on the market.
With all due respect to Rays ace Tyler Glasnow, Burnes will earn something like 60% of his $25MM salary in arbitration and has a track record of innings that Glasnow simply can’t match. White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease is a former Cy Young finalist himself … but he also posted a mid-4.00s ERA last year and has never had even an average walk rate. Guardians right-hander Shane Bieber is another fellow Cy Young winner with a comparable — likely lesser — salary coming in his final arbitration year. He also has seen his average fastball drop by about three miles per hour since winning that 2020 award, while his strikeout rate has quite literally been cut in half (a bit more than that) — falling from 41.1% to 20.1%.
Burnes’ 2023 season wasn’t his best, but the 2021 NL Cy Young winner pitched 193 2/3 innings of 3.39 ERA ball, punching out more than a quarter of his opponents against a solid 8.4% walk rate. After a shaky couple months in April and June, Burnes looked like himself down the stretch. From July 1 onward, he logged a pristine 2.72 ERA with a 28.4% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. Again — it’s not quite the peak Burnes we saw during his Cy Young-winning season, but Burnes was a clear No. 1 starter for the final three months of the year, just as he was from 2020-22.
Detractors can raise red flags about a dip in strikeout rate and a slight uptick in walks, and there’s some merit to both, but the simple fact is that over the past four seasons, Burnes has had all of three single months with an ERA north of 4.00. Two of them came early in 2023, but the bulk of his season was excellent — just as the bulk of this 2020-23 run has been on the whole.
Will the Brewers actually trade Burnes? That’s another story. It’s a distinct possibility, but Milwaukee isn’t going to be shopping him and simply accepting the highest bid. Yes, Burnes is a free agent following the 2024 season. And yes, he had some choice words about the Brewers organization following last offseason’s arbitration hearing. He also hired the Boras Corporation not long after his loss in an arb hearing, and generally speaking, most marquee players don’t hire Scott Boras & Co. to negotiate an extension when they’re on the cusp of free agency. In all likelihood, Burnes is going to be one of the premier free agents on the 2024-25 class, barring an injury or an uncharacteristically poor season.
The Brewers, then, know there are two realities in front of them. The 2024 season will be Burnes’ last with the team, or he’s already pitched his final game for them. It’s a sobering and unwelcome reality for Milwaukee faithful, but not an unfamiliar one for a fanbase that’s accustomed to seeing star players leave for the type of lucrative paydays Brewers ownership can rarely match (Christian Yelich standing as the primary exception to that rule).
At the same time, the Brewers also expect to compete in 2024. They won the NL Central in 2023 and, if they hang onto Burnes, can run back a rotation including him and Freddy Peralta at the top of the group. They have one of the best relievers in baseball (Devin Williams), a high-end shortstop (Willy Adames), a burgeoning star at catcher (William Contreras), a resurgent Yelich and one of the game’s very best outfield prospects (Jackson Chourio) on the cusp of the Majors. In a weak division, the Brewers can certainly keep Burnes and take a run at contending. Worst case scenario, they fail and flip Burnes at the deadline for a still-strong (albeit not as strong) return. They could also keep Burnes, contend in the NL Central, possibly enjoy one more playoff push with him, and then make a qualifying offer at the end of the year.
Burnes’ projected $15.1MM salary in 2024 — courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz — is a selling point for interested trade partners because it could fit into just about any team’s payroll. However, that inherently means it’s also true of the Brewers, whose only guaranteed contracts are Yelich, Peralta and affordable arms Colin Rea and Aaron Ashby. Even with Burnes, Roster Resource projects the team’s 2024 payroll at just $101MM. They can afford to keep Burnes and add to the roster around him this winter.
If the Brewers are to trade Burnes, they’ll surely require some MLB-ready talent and/or controllable prospects who are on the very cusp of reaching the Majors. Burnes ranked second on MLBTR’s list of the Top 25 offseason trade candidates, though that’s not necessarily an indication that he’s the second-likeliest player to move this winter. In writing that piece, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco noted that the rankings are an admittedly subjective blend of a player’s perceived availability, trade value and potential impact to a new club.
Burnes has a legitimate chance to be moved, but it’s not a situation where the Brewers will decidedly trade him for the best offer, nor is it one where they have to move him. If he ultimately changes teams, it’ll be because another club made a genuinely compelling offer containing long-term value that was too difficult to turn down for a player who is a veritable one-year mercenary at this point.
For the purposes of this exercise, we’ll rule out the rest of the NL Central. It’s unlikely that the Brewers will want to deal him within the division, and it’s perhaps even more unlikely that the Cardinals, Reds, Pirates or Cubs would want to part with the requisite type of controllable talent who could haunt them into the 2030s. Clubs in the midst of a rebuild/retool (e.g. Athletics, Nationals, White Sox, Royals) aren’t going to be considered here either. The Guardians develop pitching like it’s a cheap card trick. The Mariners’ rotation is already stacked with high-end names. We know the Rays, Padres and Twins are trying to cut payroll to varying extents. Clubs like the Rockies, Angels, Tigers and Marlins probably don’t feel they’re in a strong enough position to pay a premium for one year of Burnes, knowing he’s a lock to test the market next winter.
Here’s a broad-reaching look at some clear fits…
Astros: GM Dana Brown has already suggested that he doesn’t have tons of financial flexibility this offseason, downplaying needs in the rotation while talking up his desire to add to the bullpen and grab a backup catcher. That said, Brown was also candid about his openness to adding someone who could be a No. 3 starter or better, and Burnes clearly fits that billing in spades. Adding Burnes to a rotation including Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez would be a statement addition for an Astros club that just ceded the division title for the first time since 2017.
Blue Jays: Rumors about the Jays wanting to make a splash this offseason abound. A one-year match with Burnes would certainly fit the bill, giving Toronto a juggernaut rotation of Burnes, Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi, with wild card Alek Manoah in the mix (if he himself isn’t part of a theoretical trade package for Burnes or shipped out elsewhere in a separate deal). Toronto can easily add Burnes to the roster without coming close to the luxury tax threshold, and as they’ve shown with trade acquisitions of Matt Chapman, Daulton Varsho and Berrios in the past two calendar years, they’re not afraid of parting with top prospects to make a big splash.
Braves: Atlanta reportedly had interest in both Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray but came up empty in each pursuit. They’ve since been connected to Dylan Cease, another Boras client who comes with half the projected arb salary as Burnes but twice the club control. The Braves tend to like to trade for players they have a chance at extending/re-signing (e.g. Sean Murphy, Matt Olson, Joe Jimenez, Pierce Johnson), but that’s not a hard-and-fast rule and Atlanta’s clear priority this offseason is adding a playoff-caliber starter. Young MLB-ready names like Vaughn Grissom and AJ Smith-Shawver would surely hold some appeal to the Brewers, and the two teams have recently lined up on multiple trades (William Contreras, Orlando Arcia).
D-backs: Arizona’s core of hitters is beyond impressive. Corbin Carroll, Christian Walker, Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo and Gabriel Moreno all had strong years at the plate. Jordan Lawlar, one of the game’s top-ranked prospects, debuted late in the season. In the rotation, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly is a strong one-two punch, with an up-and-coming Brandon Pfaadt sure to factor in prominently. The D-backs were stung by their starting pitching in the end, however, with the Rangers scoring a combined 16 runs in the first, second and third innings of the World Series’ five games. The Snakes would know Burnes is a one-year play who’d be a veritable lock to sign a deal beyond their financial comfort zone next winter. But as a revenue-sharing recipient, they’d also be positioned to receive the top compensation possible for a qualified free agent: a pick at the end of the first round in 2025.
Dodgers: The Dodgers were tied to Burnes earlier in the offseason, and they’re a perennially logical candidate to make a play for virtually any high-profile acquisition on the trade market. The Dodgers need pitching more than usual heading into 2024, with Clayton Kershaw not only standing as a free agent but also expected to miss at least half (if not more) of the 2024 season following shoulder surgery. Walker Buehler will be in his first full season post-Tommy John. Dustin May had flexor tendon surgery/TJS revision back in May. Tony Gonsolin underwent TJS in August. It’s a brutal batch of luck for Dodger arms, and while young options like Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Gavin Stone, Ryan Pepiot and Nick Frasso give the Dodgers upside in abundance, they need some sure things as well. A one-year run with one of the NL’s top arms at a reasonable price point makes perfect sense here, and the Dodgers could make the deal knowing they’d get at least some draft compensation in return if Burnes signs elsewhere next winter, even if their status as a likely luxury tax payor would push the pick placement down to after the fourth round.
Giants: San Francisco is perhaps more focused on acquiring star-caliber talent it can control for the long haul, with names like Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger and Yoshinobu Yamamoto among the team’s reported targets. If they succeed in adding such a marquee player, however, it’d likely embolden president of baseball ops Farhan Zaidi to pursue shorter-term upgrades. Pairing Burnes with any one of those free agents would represent a transformative couple moves for a Giants team that has now had back-to-back disappointing seasons on the heels of an out-of-the-blue 107-win season in 2021. It cuts both ways, too; if the Giants are looking to sell Ohtani on their competitive outlook, a strike to acquire Burnes would help show him just how serious they are.
Mets: It’s not fully clear how aggressively the Mets will push for contention in 2024 after a disappointing year. Following his trade to the Rangers, Max Scherzer candidly said (perhaps to the chagrin of Mets brass) that his former club was looking at the ’24 season as something of a transitional year. If that’s the case, paying a prospect premium for Burnes with little hope of extending him might not be prudent. But the Mets have the money and big-market resources to push for a deal if new president of baseball ops David Stearns — the former Brewers president of baseball ops — wants to pursue his former ace with his new club. Then again, acquiring a second Boras client in a walk year who’ll have a massive price tag in extension talks (joining Pete Alonso) could give Stearns some trepidation. That’s especially true since he knows owner Steve Cohen will surely support him next winter if he wants to sign Burnes in free agency.
Orioles: At some point, one would imagine the Orioles will have to do … something? Baltimore rode a core of breakout hitters and some underappreciated pitchers (Kyle Bradish, most notably) to a 101-win season and an AL East title in 2023. But the O’s haven’t signed a free agent to a multi-year deal since Mike Elias was named GM and haven’t acquired any impact veterans on the trade market. It’s hard not to wonder what their 2023 season would’ve looked like had they aimed higher than Kyle Gibson and Cole Irvin when looking for rotation help last winter. Baltimore has an almost comical surplus of MLB-ready position players. There’s just not enough playing time for all of Jordan Westburg, Connor Norby, Joey Ortiz, Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser and Coby Mayo, to say nothing of the game’s No. 1 overall prospect: Jackson Holliday. He’s likely to emerge as the shortstop of the future in ’24, pairing with Rookie of the Year Gunnar Henderson on the left side of the infield. Sooner or later, the Orioles have to act like potential postseason behemoth they are.
Phillies: Adding another starter probably isn’t a top priority for the Phils after re-signing Nola, but Philadelphia is surely hungry to get to the finish line after a consecutive NLCS appearances. The Phillies had hoped top prospect Andrew Painter could solidify his spot on the staff in 2023, but he wound up having Tommy John surgery instead. Cristopher Sanchez makes a fine fifth starter, but acquiring Burnes and deploying a rotation including him, Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez and Taijuan Walker is undoubtedly tantalizing for a president of baseball operations who’s never shy about making big trades. Dave Dombrowski has World Series rings from his time with the Marlins and the Red Sox, but he has the payroll space and high-end pitching prospects to pursue this if he wants to make an all-out push for a third ring with a third team.
Rangers: The reigning World Champs have been MLB’s most aggressive bidders in free agency over the past couple offseasons, and their recent championship isn’t going to prompt them to sit back and coast from here on out. Texas will be players for Shohei Ohtani and other top free agents, but it ownership reaches the point where another free agent mega-deal becomes too much to stomach, trading for Burnes is a clearly appealing alternative. Jacob deGrom will be sidelined for much of the year due to Tommy John surgery. Jordan Montgomery could depart in free agency. The Rangers have a need for another high-end starter, and many of their top position prospects — specifically MLB-ready bats like Justin Foscue and Dustin Harris — are blocked at the MLB level right now. Neither would headline a Burnes trade, but both could hold some appeal as secondary pieces.
Red Sox: Boston was linked to Burnes earlier this week. New chief baseball officer Craig Breslow is seeking at least one marquee arm to plug into a rotation that’s teeming with question marks — be they due to injury (Chris Sale) or limited MLB track record (Brayan Bello, Tanner Houck). Installing Burnes into the rotation would be a boon for the team’s 2024 outlook, but it remains to be seen whether a rookie baseball operations leader would want to part with substantial long-term talent for a one-year acquisition of Burnes on the heels of the Red Sox’ last-place finish in the division.
Yankees: Speaking of disappointing 2023 seasons from AL East powers, the Yankees barely eked out a winning season (82-80) and missed the playoffs entirely. They have serious long-term questions in the outfield, the infield and in the rotation. Burnes would be a short-term patch unless he can be re-signed next winter, but the Yanks might get their long-term arm if they can successfully sell Yamamoto on pitching in the Bronx. If they succeed in landing the righty, who many consider their top pitching target, then a trade to add Burnes to a starting staff also featuring Gerrit Cole, Yamamoto and Carlos Rodon (who can scarcely have a worse 2024 season than his 2023 Yankees debut) could give the Bombers a potential pitching powerhouse.
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Overall, the best fits for Burnes are going to be win-now clubs with payroll space, strong farm systems and strong enough 2024 playoff expectations that there’s little fear of giving up too much for a pitcher ahead of a season that culminates in a postseason miss. In my view, that points to the Dodgers, Orioles, D-backs, Phillies and Rangers, although Burnes is talented enough that you can make a compelling case for just about any pseudo-contender to take the plunge and meet Milwaukee’s surely steep asking price.
TrillionaireTeamOperator
I want to see the Yankees get him for one year and then let him walk.
Captain-Judge99
The Brewers would be wise to call the Yankees, nice young pitching is available and Clarke Schmidt is no slouch either. Pereira is a piece also if he’s not moved in a Soto trade. Gleyber Torres can definitely help kickstart that Brewers offense also.
vtadave
Don’t sell yourself short Judge. You’re a tremendous slouch.
Captain-Judge99
@vtadave- Nah but your Mother is though.
Joe says...
Vtadave I definitely read that with a Chevy Chase voice.
Gwynning
Absolutely perfect, VTA! Even the Judge part haha
StusFirstDollar
14-93 definitely not a piece you’re always on here claiming the Yankees have prospects
OIC2021
The Guardians are “in” on Burnes with Clase headed to Milwaukee. It is the exact reason they traded for Scott Barlow
JoeBrady
The Brewers aren’t trading Burnes for a setup guy.
JackStrawb
He doesn’t help them if they can’t make the postseason, and trading from the #24 farm system (fangraphs) when you have an old core is dicey, at best.
They’ll do better to pick up a #2 in FA than do this to themselves.
CosmoCraymer
Astros won the division title.
Astrosfn1979
But didn’t win in 2020 so that statement was wrong on 2 different fronts.
jjd002
To be fair nobody counts that joke of a season
Gwynning
Overlooking my Pads.. ? We kinda need 3 starters now if the season started today, plus we’ve got prospects galore! The only question is what does Milwaukee want for one year of Burnesy?
Longtimecoming
Absolutely and they have a history of being trade partners. Pads Fans shared some ideas a few days ago on a Luzardo trade so with that as a guide, maybe one of Padres 6-10 and 2 in the back 20-30?
Ma4170
I think either would need a top 5 system prospect. They’ll want at least one top 100 overall.
Longtimecoming
Padres 7, 8 and possibly 12 (top fall league player) will very likely be on the top 100 in the spring edition. Their 6 is high but likely RP in mlb.
Should they trade Soto, they get a top 50 and top 100 min (if not they don’t trade).
So Padres 6-10 will be a top 100 guy is my point.
Mets6986??
There is a zero percent chance the Padres have ten players in the top 100 rankings.
Longtimecoming
Not at the moment but they have 5 and they have another 1 or 2 waiting for the 2024 update / when a few fall out of eligibility to create spots.
Then IF and I capitalized that, IF Soto is traded they will add 2 top 100 (debatable where they fall) and maybe a 3rd if they are all back end.
So yeah, they could if they don’t in turn flip some for SP.
Simbosargos
I would assume we’ll just keep him and take the pick if that’s the best offer.
LosPobres1904
Hands of Cronenworth and Grisham Brew Crew they are all ours!
Simbosargos
Pass
Jbeck29
No crew fan want Grisham back at ALL
LosPobres1904
Og damn I forgot that’s where he came from lol
Joel P
I think the Padres are in a weird spot. They are trying to contend but also have some budget issues. The solution to this I think is to trade prospects and they have prospects to trade. One of those high upside pitching prospects I think would appeal to the Brewers. Dwelling and the other guy Lesko I think is his name.
Longtimecoming
Snelling should be off limits. I’d include Lesko in a Luzardo package. Take a couple more in the 15-30 range.
Joel P
Why would the Marlins trade Luzardo? I thought we were talking about Burnes.
Ma4170
Because they can get a good return for luzardo, who they seem to be willing to move (though I wouldn’t if i were them).
Longtimecoming
See my first post – as a guide to my response on Burnes. I’d bet Gwynning may have seen the previous exchange a few days ago.
Joel P
Marlins lost Alcantara for the season. I don’t think they are going for it in 2024. And Luzardo is from the Maimi area I think they want to keep him. I like Soto as a fit for the Marlins from a positional standpoint but not from a contractual one.
Ma4170
Going back to the main point, i agree, could easily see SD and Mil matching up well for a burnes trade
Mets6986??
Do you really think the Padres are adding when they don’t even have a clear owner right now. Wouldn’t be surprised if a probate court puts limits on their payroll.
Longtimecoming
No probate court. A trust was created. His wife and business partner are in charge. ps put money aside before he died for the express purpose of making sure SD would contend for years to come.
PadsFan did a very good in-depth explanation on one of these threads earlier today. I think Soto one. Check it out for more details.
CardsFan77
No, the Padres are screwed… loans out, huge payroll that doesn’t produce results, basically no starting pitching now…. but they made headlines the last few years trading and signing superstars to miss the playoffs
Brew’88
Very strange that mlbtr guys are not thinking the Pads are in on SPs, especially in trade market. They along with Dodgers are probably going to be the most active in SP market. Pads have always had their eyes on Burnes, and mythical budget constraints aside, they have prospects galore to work trades.
misterb71
Does suggesting the Padres would pursue Burnes and his roughly $15 million salary when they’ve been openly dumping everyone they could over the last couple months — including the manager?
StrosFanSince94
Love the idea of Corbin to Houston, but it’s totally unrealistic. This is as weak as their farm system has ever been and I think there’s an emphasis on rebuilding the farm for Dana. Definitely don’t see any splashy trades or signings (because they don’t want to lose picks) happening and wouldn’t be surprised to see Bregman traded to the NL.
Four4fore
Bergman for Burnes?
Four4fore
BREGMAN
hyraxwithaflamethrower
Now that’s an intriguing idea, but I don’t see it happening. I think both teams would favor prospects for these guys rather than MLB rentals. Would be fun, though.
HalosHeavenJJ
If the Brewers are trading Burnes they are definitely looking for prospects.
Houston can still win another ring, though.
LosPobres1904
Verga-Man
mustache101
As a brewers fan realistically Baltimore is the best fit… my team needs bats they have bats… they also need outfield help and the brewers have a surplus… but the brewers have no need to trade him…. I’m thinking a t. Taylor plus burnes would grab a massive return if not just keep him for the year
slider32
Agreed, the O’s just jump off the paper on this one. I will be surprised if they don’t get him.
kripes-brewers
It does line up, much like Toronto and the D-Backs last year, they just mesh in terms of needs…
Beff Jagwell
Astros didn’t “cede” the division title this year. The AL title yes, but not the division.
baked mcbride
C’mon, Baltimore!
Joirgro 2
I’ll say it again, trade him to the Braves for 3 or 4 of their top minor league pitching prospects even if it means a step back for a year of two. One thing the Brewers seem to be good at is developing pitchers.
Ketch
3 or 4 top pitching prospects for ONE YEAR of Burnes? Be happy with one.
Joirgro 2
None of them are considered super prospects. I just want arms.
HalosHeavenJJ
Perhaps a middle ground where the Brew Crew pick up Elder or Ynoa plus a lottery ticket or two.
Take the simulator with a grain of salt but it has Burnes for Elder, Murphy, and Schwellenbach as about even.
Switch it to Ynoa and the prospect package is Waldrep and Murphy.
mustache101
Pay the price or the brewers keep there ace it’s non negotiable
Jeremy320
People really seem to be struggling with the concept of pay the Brewer’s price or they do not trade him. This is not much of a negotiation.
kripes-brewers
All true, although the Crew would like to get out from under the $15M +/- they’d owe Burnes, but yeah it’ll be costly to get him.
Ketch
Rodon can do worse. For starters, he could pitch 64 fewer innings.
Gwynning
I think that’d be “better”
sfes
Stannis Baratheon approves of this message
Gwynning
This guy HB-knOws…
desertdawg
I could see the D”backs taking a chance on a ione year rental (Burnes) if they fail in getting Cease, Bieber, etc. Now what they would offer for Burnes is not one I’m sure of, I believe the Brewers would be limited on what they ask for a one-year rental. And if the D’Backs would be out of the 2024 playoff race at the deadline, they could always use him as trade material.
Ketch
Burnes to the Cubs for minor league SP Cade Horton. Brewers are giving up the division by dealing Burnes anyway and by getting Horton, they strengthen their future while weakening the future of the Cubs.
rememberthecoop
If they trade Burnes, it’s certainly not going to be to the team that just “stole” their manager. There was already a rivalry there, but if they trade Burnes to the Cubs, there might be a full-fledged mutiny!
ReddVencher
Going to take way more than Horton to get Burnes to the Cubs. Horton and Shaw would be the core of a reasonable trade for Burnes, but a Burnes to the Cubs trade isn’t going to be reasonable.
ckc12537
Forrest Whitley, Jake Meyers, JP France, and JJ Matijevic for Burnes. Get it done
ReddVencher
That isn’t anywhere close to what it’ll take to get Burnes.
ckc12537
He only has a year of team control remaining, so yes that would be close.
Htown_smack
uhh not nearly enough. Whitley and Matijevic are essentially worthless. Meyers is average. France is okay.
Maybe France, Arrighetti, and Luis Baez or Brice Matthews.
ReddVencher
That’s nowhere near it either.
ckc12537
Ok then what do you think it’ll take?
Astrosfn1979
I actually think Meyers and France would be a big part of a deal from a value stand point, but the Brewers would like younger higher ceiling guys.
Meyers in particular is a 2.5 WAR CF with 4 years of control left and gold glove ability.
Just that alone is 10 WAR for 4 WAR of Burnes.
Throw is 5 years of 1-1.5 WAR from France its a huge win for Milwaukee, but they are both low ceiling, high floor guys who aren’t difference makers. Or potential difference makers
But with the value of a TOR starter, the Brewers will want and get a better package of high ceiling low floor prospects.
ckc12537
Yeah, it probably requires someone other than Matijevic/Whitley lol. I do expect France/Meyers to be dealt this offseason
ReddVencher
Based on recent trades for SP with similar control, you’re looking at a top 50 prospect in baseball/player equivalent, another top 100 prospect/player equivalent, and another piece or 2 further away based on the quality of the front half. Astros don’t currently have a single top 100 prospect. They did graduate 2 of them last year in Brown and Diaz. Any package for Burnes to the Astros would cost Brown, and I doubt they would do both Brown and Diaz/Pena. Maybe something like Brown, Baez, Arighetti, and Camilio Diaz would work.
ReddVencher
Meyers isn’t a 2.5 WAR CF. JP France is 5th starter. Neither have the value to get Burnes.
Astrosfn1979
I’m not arguing that those 2 don’t get it done, but in what world is Meyers not a 2.5 WAR CF?
2023= 1.6 bWAR in 341 PA = 2.6 per 550 PA
2022= 1.7 fWAR IN 341 PA = 2.7 per 550 PA
Career= 3.3 bWAR in 664 PA= 2.7 per 550 PA
Career= 3.1 fWAR in 664 PA= 2.6 per 550 PA.
2024 will be his age 28 season so no reason to expect any kind of fall off.
And FYI, isn’t that exactly how I described France? Isn’t a 1-1.5 WAR starter a #5 guy?
Astrosfn1979
Sorry. Both the top 2 lines should be 2023 numbers. 2022 was a typo.
ckc12537
Hahahaha you’re delusional.
ReddVencher
Not in the slightest.
Joel P
I think Burnes ends up staying put. But a deal involving Burnes and Manoah I think could make sense for both sides. Include an infield prospect from the Jays to the Brewers and you could have a deal.
Ketch
Burnes for Manoah, SS Orelvis Martinez, and maybe a longer shot like MiLB SP Kendry Rojas.
ReddVencher
That isn’t getting Burnes.
Joel P
Seems fair to me
Senzapaura305
NYY
Torres
King
Cabrerra
MIL
Burns
Yelich
vtadave
Burns?
Gwynning
Excellent, Smithers!
HatlessPete
Burns is gonna be disappointed when he finds out you can’t get a meal a newsreel and trolley fare to the polo grounds for a nickel anymore…
Ketch
Outside of salary relief, what does that do?
Garett
No team packages a TOR arm with a salary dump netting them little future talent in return
hyraxwithaflamethrower
No surprise that there’s a lot of overlap in this list and the one for Cease. Burnes has been more consistent, but Cease has that extra year of cheap control. Somewhat smaller pool for Glasnow and that $25M salary.
Mercenary.Freddie.Freeman
Braves will get Burnes.
RunDMC
Only if they also acquire former Valdosta St P: Chris Smithers
rememberthecoop
I see what you did there.
ohyeadam
Brewers will have a hard time competing if they trade Burns or Adames. They should hold onto both until the deadline imo. Always have the QO, which neither would accept, to get some value if they’re kept
Joirgro 2
I’m willing to face the reality that Burnes will be gone. Their farm system is highly rated but could use more pitchers. Realize that many prospects don’t work out. Step back for a year or two.
Shadow_Banned
The Yankees would be foolish enough to trade for him. Pedestrian numbers.
RunDMC
What numbers are you referring to? Not saying he’s one of them, but I can imagine you’ll find some bounce back from some pitchers that regressed, possibly from difficulties adapting to the rule changes. That being said, he’s not in the same boat as Bieber that looks more cooked than Burnes. (pun intended?)
rememberthecoop
Burnes is a top of the rotation starter. What are you smoking?
Shadow_Banned
I’m just used to my Aces having 1.78-2.50 ERAs like Grienke, Kershaw, Urias and Buehler, Bauer.
Sure Burnes is pretty good but he’s not wowww you’ve gotta trade your farm for him type of guy.
Maybe if you’re the Yankees and Mets you’re used to making idiotic trades and signings.
Jeremy320
Guessing you were the last kid in your class to realize santa clause wasn’t real lol.
steven st croix
“would be a statement addition for an Astros club that just ceded the division title for the first time since 2017.” Houston won the division in 2023. Oakland won in 2020
tangerinepony
Burnes will get get 40-45M on the open market if he reaches free agency in a year so any team that trades for him we get him as a year rental unless your the big market teams
cwsOverhaul
Not a chance for that AAV., but he will rightfully squeeze the most years to maximize the total guaranteed contract. Perhaps 6/210 or something along those lines if he does not extend this year with whoever acquires him via trade. He also has not risen to the occasion in postseason chances, and that won’t be lost on suitors in the lines they draw before saying no thanks.
tangerinepony
His agent is Boras. If verlander, Scherzer and Degrom can get 40M a year so can Burnes. He also has a Cy-Young in his back pocket so that helps his cause for a massive payday
pearcearrow
I think he would fit well with the Tigers. They have a farm system and the money to resign him to a longer term deal. They are almost there. The addition would solidify the rotation.
spudchukar
Never happen to the Cards, but this guy is a stud. Young, competitive and the premier talent that is available.
alaskajdw
Cubs???
RSmith
Burnes to Red Sox for Tristan Casas.
Brew Crew gets young, cheap power hitting first baseman with excellent strike zone eye. Red Sox get Power SP, who they would need to immediately lock up long-term.
I.M. Insane
Are you serious? That would be absurd. Casas has the potential to be a major force with the club. For one season (probably) of Burnes?
RSmith
“For one season (probably)”
If Red Sox management isnt confident it can lock him up, the deal doesnt get done.
Hence why I said “would need to lock up long-term”. Did you miss that? Are you serious?
I.M. Insane
Trade with the Orioles. You know you want to.
Mets6986??
Orioles are too cheap.
mad1
Looking at the minor league systems I would think the dodgers and Oreos have the best match for the crew
Jason Huff
Really hope the Braves get him but the farm system is pretty bare.
YanksPhan42
So Adames is a “high end” SS……but many articles say that Volpe struggled mightily in his first year at the plate.
Adames – .217/.310 24 HR, 80 RBI, 5 SB
Volpe – . 209/..283 21 HR, 60 RBI, 24 SB + Gold Glove
Volpe is also a fetus on a cheap deal and barely had a cup of coffee at AAA before making the jump.
Just saying…..
As for Burnes……I’m all over him if I’m Cashman. Even with slight regression the last few seasons, he’s still an ace and a hell of a lot cheaper (at the moment) than Yamo. He’s also a proven entity. Then they can use their resources on fixing a horribly bad offense.
Mets6986??
Adams is far from high end. I would consider him below average.
CardsFan77
So everyone on here always destroys trade scenarios but how about this one:
Cards Brewers trade
Cards send
Oniell (eat his salary for next year)
Matz (Cards eat his 11 mil for next year and brewers take on his final year)
Dylan Carlson
Brenden Donovan
Brewers send Burns and eat half of his 2024 salary
Gwynning
Why would the Brew Crew want more Outfielders… and arguably none better than their own kids? I don’t mean to denigrate your offer, but just because Team A wants to throw out guys doesn’t mean Team B is a trashman. And both teams eat money? Just offer less on one side haha
LosPobres1904
If we have all the SSs and 1Bs they can have all of the outfielders.
JaysnCards
I kinda like it but feel we need a smidge more on the return (especially with Donovan included) or absorb a little less of the salary on said players.
slider32
Pick one- O’s Kjerstad/Bassalo, Dodgers Cartaya/Frasso!
Mets6986??
Cartaya is horrible.
scruffmcgruff
As an O’s fan, I would be all for pursuing Corbin. Dude has been extremely good and consistent. Would he be expensive in terms of prospects for a potential one year rental? Sure. But could he be exactly what gets the O’s from a playoff contender to a World Series contender? I certainly think so. We’ve always been reluctant to hand out big contracts to free agents regardless of them being a pitcher or position player (Albert Belle and Chris Davis are certainly cautionary tales) so making a trade for this caliber of player makes almost too much sense when your roster is very much full of young talent with more waiting in the wings in the minors.
Joirgro 2
Alright Oriole fan. Tell be what you would trade for both Burnes and Devin Williams?
scruffmcgruff
Hard to say really, we will be without our AL reliever of the year Bautista, the counterpart to Williams NL reliever of the year. I’m not sure if we just stick with what we have for a closer role or not rather than try for a package of both. I do imagine for such an upgrade it would have to be a pretty steep price to pay. I imagine any talks probably starts with 2 out of Westburg/Cowser/DL Hall and then probably some lower minors prospects. Even that feels like an undersell of the quality that Williams and Corbin bring even if it isn’t going to be a long term move. I’ll reduce it to this I suppose, the only real untouchable in terms of prospect is Jackson Holliday.
Elias and Mejdal have been pretty patient when it comes to development and making moves so its anyones guess as to what they do. I’m not sure exactly what the Brew Crew needs but if Burnes is available, or you can get Williams in a combo deal or whatever, it would definitely be worth engaging in talks.
bravesfan
I’d die to have him on the Braves and if we can lock him up. The cost would be too much both in cash and prospect capital
Finlander
Minnesota has room, especially if they move Kepler, Polanco or Vasquez separately. They also have a strong enough farm. They have a need for a top end starter this year. They seem okay with the process of taking a draft pick after a qualifying offer. And the Twins and Brewers are next door neighbors. They’d probably not extend him, but it appears they could at least be in the running to make a competitive offer to Milwaukee to use him this year.
Motor City Beach Bum
Tigers pick him, Adames and Tyler Black up for Manning, Jung, Flores, Carpenter, a good A or AA ball pitcher (which they have lots of) and wait on it… Baez! Click……
Seaver rules
Stearns is talking with his old employer looking to get this deal done and the Mets 6 man rotation (when needed). Is Senga, Yamamoto, Burnes, Quintana, Severino and Lucchesi.
radhippo
The Angels must be on the list. They’re desperate and Burnes would fit perfectly!
LosPobres1904
To the Padres for Grisham and Cronenworth
Joirgro 2
That’s got to be the worst of all proposals.
JaysnCards
Well I for one would love to see Burnes with the Jays. Talk about a lights out 1 thru 5. Well at least 1 thru 3.
How about this trade scenario Burnes, Yellich and a solid prospect for Guerrero, Varsho and Manoah? Also the Brewers eating a bit of salary.
Maybe far fetched but I for one think Guerrero isn’t the superstar he could be and yet his trade value would be huge. Varsho has a salary the Brewers would be comfortable with. And Manoah may turn things around there and needs a change of scenery (as do the Jays from him).
The Jays could comfortably take on the lofty salaries on the return especially if the Brewers absorb a little of it
Mercenary.Freddie.Freeman
I have never met a Brewers fan but it must be a hard time right now to be one.
Chris Koch
Chourio makes it an exciting time to see basically the next Robin Yount superstar, hopefully 9-10 seasons long.
piratedan
the issue always seems to be how you rate the prospects in your farm system and finding the value in matching up with the other team needs….
speaking from the D’Backs side of a trade offer, they have quite a few guys on the cusp of being contributors, but again, no idea on how the Brewers would feel about them considering what they believe their needs are… but since we all like to be armchair GM’s
Milwaukee: Corbin Burns
DBacks offer: Bryce Jarvis, Ryne Nelson and Blaze Alexander.
Jarvis and Nelson broke in this year but have not been lengthened out yet but young controllable arms, likely mid rotation. Alexander, a good infielder but presently blocked by Perdomo and Lawler. All were in the top 20 prospects for the Dbacks at the start of 2023.
shosho
“At some point, one would imagine the Orioles will have to do … something?”
“the Orioles have to act like potential postseason behemoth they are”
Lol. I’m just glad you didn’t perpetuate the “should be good for a decade” meme, but the ‘postseason behemoth’ might supercede. Just in case anyone still doesn’t understand, having more top prospects doesn’t change your contention window, especially if you aren’t extending any of them. The window for these “building for the future, check out the BP top 100!” teams is always less than six years. Rinse and repeat, thanks for the occasional high dollar season, we’re so sorry it didn’t work out.
Chris Koch
Baltimore can trade competitive balance picks right? Something other teams can’t offer. Losing out on a QO pick future when trading Burnes, without a known salary for 2024, I think that is something that’s appealing in a trade offer. Baltimore also has I think a 3b or 1b the crew’s roster needs. Add a SP with lotto side tor ceiling or #3 fall back and that would be my ground work of an acceptable trade. Do the O’s need an OF? Crew have 5+ that can sweeten any deal.
Chris Koch
Baltimore has zero pitchers in the pipeline to offer. They’d need to headline Grayson Rodriguez as the trade.
Coby Mayo would be the next headline but again zero pitchers to offer after. No matchup there unless it’s Rodriguez maybe straight up.
Ezpkns34
I think Burnes to the O’s is the most interesting outcome, for both sides
Mets6986??
Mauricio and McLean from the Mets for Burnes.
Vinicious
Steve Adams… come on. You are a terrible writer.
“The Brewers, then, know there are two realities in front of them”
This is such bad writing. You should say, for example:
“The Brewers therefore know there are two realities in front of them
Stop interrupting yourself in the middle of writing, dummy. Also, “too” doesn’t need a comma before it, dummy.