Rumors about the state of Shohei Ohtani’s market in free agency have been decidedly and deliberately scarce. Ohtani is said to prefer things to be kept quiet and close to the vest, and teams involved in the bidding surely don’t want to jeopardize their chances by being too forthcoming in terms of leaking information to the media. ESPN’s Jeff Passan pulls back the curtain a bit this morning, however, writing that at least three teams — the Rangers, Mets and Red Sox — have turned their attention to other players at this stage of the process. While each of the three were among Ohtani’s original group of suitors, it seems the trio has become pessimistic about their chances of closing a deal.
The Rangers’ ostensible exit from the Ohtani bidding dovetails with recent comments from general manager Chris Young, who just yesterday told reporters that he does not anticipate spending to the same extent he did in the past two offseasons. Texas dropped more than $500MM in the 2021-22 offseason when signing Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray. The Rangers spent more than $200MM last winter when adding Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney. Whether the expectation for lesser spending is because they feel they’re out of the Ohtani bidding or vice versa, the end result seems to be an expectation and concession that the two-time AL MVP and longtime Rangers division rival will sign elsewhere.
As for the Mets, there was never any question whether they have the funds to pay Ohtani a contract that’s widely expected to eclipse $500MM by a comfortable margin. Owner Steve Cohen is the sport’s wealthiest and most aggressive owner. But there have long been questions about Ohtani’s desire to play in the New York spotlight and deal with the inherent media frenzy associated with that market. It should come as no surprise that the Mets (and likely the Yankees) nevertheless tried, but Passan’s report suggests those efforts have come up short. To that end, SNY’s Andy Martino reports that Ohtani’s countryman, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, is currently the Mets’ primary focus.
The Red Sox, meanwhile, are known to be seeking top-of-the-rotation help for the 2024 season, which doesn’t apply to Ohtani while he mends from elbow surgery. (Though he’d clearly be a factor in their 2025 rotation and beyond.) Prior reports have suggested that Boston’s focus, thus far, has been more on the trade market than on free agency. That doesn’t definitively mean that the Sox aren’t willing to spend lavishly on free agents this winter, but if their pursuit of immediate rotation help eventually leads them to free agency, it’d make for a particularly expensive offseason to pursue both Ohtani and one of the remaining top-end starters (e.g. Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery).
While those three clubs are out of the mix, Ohtani’s market does still include the likes of the Dodgers, Cubs, Blue Jays and Angels, per Passan. That’s not intended to be a comprehensive list of the remaining suitors, however. It stands to reason that other clubs could yet be in play. The Giants have long been linked to Ohtani, as have the Mariners — although Daniel Kramer of MLB.com reported a couple weeks ago suggested that the Mariners were unlikely to ultimately land him.
Gmen777
Dodgers, Cubs and Giants seem most likely at this point with Toronto being a dark horse
RunDMC
Seriously, I’d peg ATL has the dark horse.
Saint Nick
Not a chance in hell. The team is broke.
RunDMC
That’s what they want you to think.
They’re corporately-owned (Liberty Media: $8.6B) and only publicly-traded team that has to negotiate a lucrative new TV deal in 2027, when the current one (signed by Time Warner) ends. What better way to invest than a generational talent that boosts the value of your asset for a few years (boosting TV ratings) before you reap the benefits of a new TV deal that they really haven’t depended on while they’ve been profitting since the crosstown move? That’s not including the marketing profits from Braves entering into a new market, which they’ve never had before.
-Ohtani, if pitching again, could replace Fried as TOR SP next season (while getting back that comp pick it’d take to sign Ohtani, when Fried turns down the QO)
-Ohtani reportedly is “intrigued” playing for ATL and values winning, and what better team is set-up for that?
-AA likes surprises
Lots of reasons that this is ridiculous for Braves, but quite a few ones this could really push them over the top.
Saint Nick
I mean…look brother..I hope you’re right. I think Ohtani would make half his contract back in merch sales alone.
VonPurpleHayes
Atlanta has the money to get this done, and rumors say Ohtani wants to go to a perennial contender. That’s the Braves or Dodgers IMO.
Bucsfan4ever
@Saint Nick. Braves are FAR from broke. But they will not spend the money to get some one like Ohtani. They need to save their bucks to sign Fried and Minter to extensions and maybe sign someone like Montgomery or Giolito. They have more than enough hitting but their pitching is thin
sfjackcoke
Given the current RSN landscape, it’s tough to say what their next contract will look like and that uncertainty is problematic given the Ohtani contract will run well past the 2027 renewal.
Personally given what Liberty is doing to with regards to carving the Braves and other holdings under their corporate umbrella (F1, SirusXM) in their financial reporting, I don’t think it’s out of the possibility they’re being prepped for an eventual sale.
MarkoRock68
That’s why I think the Jays are more then just a darkhorse. After spending big on a development complex and 300M+ on a stadium reno adding Ohtani would drive merch and season tickets to the stratosphere.
damascusj
He wants to go to a contender? Or just wants to win in the regular season?
Cause I’d say LA and ATL night be more the latter
C-Daddy
Pretty sure both those teams have won championships in the last few years.
Catuli Carl
No, just the Braves.
Catuli Carl
What are the income taxes link in Toronto?
Shadow_Banned
I think Atlanta would be such a culture shock to him. He could stay in LA with better weather and Little Tokyo 10 miles away ^_^
iverbure
If they aren’t contenders in the NL who is your opinion, just wondering how you have such a god awful take. Quit eating paint chips
Fever Pitch Guy
Nick – I agree 100%.
Part of the reason Atlanta has been so successful is their ability to stay away from stupid contracts. Paying Ohtani as two star players will be stupid, it’s far from certain he’ll be a frontline starting pitcher again.
And the Braves don’t need him. They sell out every game, are massively popular and successful, and need just a little tweak to get back to the WS.
stymeedone
Also, they have been perennial contenders due to signing players for below market value. The minute they sign Ohtani, that all goes out the window. Everyone will want to be PAID! That’s not the MO that they have built on.
roob
He doesn’t care about that. Ohtani is gonna go where he feels most comfortable.
I agreee with the experts. Very likely to be Dodgers, Giants, Cubs or Blue Jays.
Buzzz Killington
@RUNDMC Read the income and cash flow statement. The argument is building long-term brand value for long-term gain. Definitely not that profitable right now.
jaysfansince1977
Well Carl remember one thing about playing in Toronto is that the player is only taxed on home games so only for 81 games! als0 the tax situation is not that far off what it is for playing in Los Angeles which is the highest of all states
VonPurpleHayes
Both teams have won the World Series fairly recently.
Mtog
@Catuli. Taxes here are high, no doubt. But two things:
1) Players get paid in USD. The Canadian dollar is at .73 to that so right away it’s like making 27% more.
2) there is a tax treaties between Canada/US which allows for players to pay the majority of their taxes in their home state/province. They would only pay a fraction of Canadian taxes and the rest would be paid in wherever Ohtani calls “home”.
PutPeteinthehall
Ohtani is not pitching next season. He’s not replacing Fried.
steelerbravenation
Fried is not re-signing. If he was he would have already. I think he meets up with Giolito & Flaherty in the Angels rotation next year or the Dodgers.
Ozuna & Iglesis get traded I think Ohtani is coming.
Gomez
Unless the player moves to Toronto fulltime they do not pay Canadian income taxes. They pay income taxes in the locale in which they reside. Residency in Canada means you have to live here more than 183 days in a year. With 81 home games it pretty easy to avoid becoming Canadian resident
So, if he establishes a home and bank accounts etc.. in the Sun Coast of Florida he would pay income taxes to the US government and Florida. There would be 15% withholding on his pay checks but he could later recoup that by filing the appropriate tax returns.
RunDMC
Respectfully, metro ATL (Alpharetta especially) was known as being the offseason home to more pro athletes than anywhere else. Considering how the city has become Hollywood, as well, with the tax incentives and the world’s busiest airport, I don’t think it’d be nearly as much of a culture shock as it once was.
RunDMC
Sure, but once the loans are paid…their profits far exceed what they pay him.
JoeBrady
Fever Pitch Guy4 hours ago
And the Braves don’t need him. They sell out every game,
==========================
That’s one of the things that a lot of people miss. Ohtani’s popularity only helps if you can add tickets. That’s not going to be sold-out teams, and it won’t be tiny market teams, and it won’t be really bad teams.
That’s why I like Seattle. They’re close enough where the right acquisitions should get them in the playoffs, and their previous attendance high is north of 3M, as opposed to the current 2.7M. I think they could easily sell another 400k tickets, covering most of his costs, before even adding in additional TV revenue.
JoeBrady
“For professional athletes who play on teams who have games in both Canada and the U.S. (this would include most major league sports), this means they pay Canadian taxes only on income earned during games played in Canada.
Canadian Tax Brackets
In 2018, federal tax brackets in Canada were as follows:
$205,842 or more 33%”
feigenbaumlaw.com/sports-entertainment/tax-conside…
Fever Pitch Guy
Buzz – Atlanta already has several big name players, with Acuna being one of the biggest in MLB. They wouldn’t increase the brand value much with Ohtani, other teams could use that much more.
4Fishn
400k would probably be easy add in Seattle with the Japanese visitor and renewed interest. The Angels had a full time camera on Ohtani at every home game with merchandise and additional root sports revenue it’s a no brainer. Sadly Cheapskate John is brainless
Phree4u
Taxes are applied to each game on the state/ province the game is played, not where the player calls home.
So 81 in Toronto if he goes to blue Jay’s
14 in NY
14 in Baltimore
14 in Florida
14 in Massachusetts
Etc
.. for each other series’
They are basically independent contractors and pay taxes where the work is performed.
Phree4u
Not how this works
Jaysfansince92
Pretty sure they meant replacing Fried in 2025 as Fried will still pitch for the Braves in 2024.
JoeBrady
It’s much like the US state taxes. NYS doesn’t have to be your domicile, but if you play 81 games in NYS, you pay taxes on those 81 games. It’s the same for the commoners. If you reside in NJ, but work in NY, you pay NY taxes, and then take that payment as a credit against what you would owe NJ.
JoeBrady
But more importantly, what is the all-in tax rate in TO, including provincial and local taxes? 46%? or is there a separate TO tax?
robw5555
Exactly. Once they opent he flood gates for Ohtani, its all over. Then everyone wants a bigger slice.
robw5555
Fried wants a mega deal. He sees the market now and being a free agent means somebody can make him an insane offer. 7 Yr deal. He is not signing to tiny small money. He sees guys who are terrible like Lance Lynn get 13 million. Sonny Gray 25 a yr for 3 years. Charlie Morton on the Braves gets 20 at his age. I am sure he can get north of 30 million? Yankees? Hello? Dodgers? Red Sox? Cubs? Mets?
robw5555
He would not have to pay taxes on the 81 games he would be in Toronto? I think his chances of going there are very slim.
CommentsSectionCommenter
@JoeBrady
Respectfully, that’s just not true.
Sponsorships and merchandise sold would both skyrocket for any team that signs Ohtani, as would TV ratings for the team in question. Ticket sales are just one piece of the Ohtani Economic Impact-alooza…..
RunDMC
@JoeBrady — “And the Braves don’t need him. They sell out every game.” I know you didn’t say that, but that’s ridiculous. In 2023, ATL sold out 54 of 81 games (66%) — so they sell out two-thirds of games. ATL also ranked 10th of 30 teams in road attendance, which they get a cut of it, as well.
To think they can’t be more profitable is silly. The big money is TV ratings, which ATL is one of the smallest payouts, reportedly.
RunDMC
@Fever Pitch Guy — people acting like ATL won a championship last 2 years and can’t get better — and they’re the most profitable team. They didn’t and they’re not. Respectfully, Forbes ranked ATL at #8 in 2023 for most valuable MLB franchises. Most of the teams ahead of them are in larger markets with more international appeal. ATL does not have much, if any, international appeal now that TBS is not the superstation it once was (sorry, but Kenshin Kawakami wasn’t “it”). NYY, LAD, BOS, CHC, SF, NYM — all in larger markets, but also, a lot more international appeal, that Ohtani brings to the table. As someone else puts it, he’s his own economy. He’ll bring more overseas appeal you can’t buy — until now. Even Acuña/Betts and other superstars don’t have that size of appeal. Signing the guy from a pure business standpoint makes all the sense in the world — and, oh, right — he’s also arguably the best player on the planet you’d be getting for the next decade (approx).
Curly Was The Smart Stooge
Von, always like your posts.
Ohtani to ATL?
Not AA’s signature
IMHOP, with the arm going limp, in 5 years , everyone is bitching about the ridiculous signing. Let some other fool spend .5 billion
Go Phills, if ATL doesn’t win, let the Liberty bell take it all…
Luis_Fazenda
“he’s also arguably the best player on the planet you’d be getting for the next decade (approx)”
Until he smokes his arm for the third time…then what you have is highest salaried DH in history, who’s played exactly 7 games in the outfield his entire career.
Fever Pitch Guy
Run – Are you really disputing Atlanta’s strong attendance?
Truist capacity is 41,084
Average attendance is 39,401
5th-highest attendance in MLB
96% of all tickets were sold
And percentage of road game revenue ended long ago when something new started called revenue sharing.
Jaysfansince92
Ohtani regularly played over 50 games a season in the OF in Japan. Your statement of only 7 games in his career is false.
Fever Pitch Guy
Run – Respectfully, you’re confusing profitability with capital gains.
Franchises such as my Red Sox are worth so much not because of megastar players (they don’t have any) or winning (they’ve sucked for two years). The Red Sox are valued so high because Fenway is a goldmine, Massachusetts is a very wealthy state, and the popularity of the team is among the highest in MLB.
Most likely the Braves signing Ohtani would cause their net profit to decrease, as it did last year despite record revenue. And keep in mind the Braves don’t even get to keep all additional revenue, because they pay into the revenue sharing program.
Luis_Fazenda
Big leagues….I couldn’t give a damn about what happened in Japan.
Bozzmania
Each team keeps their own gate now since revenue sharing started,
CommentsSectionCommenter
@Luis_Fazenda
SO I guess you’d definitely prefer that your team NOT sign Shohei Ohtani or
Yoshinobu Yamamoto this offseason?
Roger that.
JoeBrady
Respectfully, that’s just not true.
=====================
Call it half-true. My very simplistic formula is to take the extra tickets sold and multiply that by $100 to include merchandising, food, etc. Then double that amount to account of media income.
At the end of the day, the teams with the biggest room for growth will benefit more from Ohtani than other teams.
desertbull
Most people dont realize that merch sales and corporate sponsorships are divided evenly among all teams. If there are a billion dollars in Ohtani jerseys sold, divide it by 30 and thats how much the Braves get.
OZ13
I posted elsewhere today that ATL signing Ohtani is actually brilliant. They lose Fried and Morton (combined salary this yr around 40 mil) to FA after the season. They could sign Ohtani to Dh this year, trade away ozuna and his 18 mil salary for SP under a year or two of control, and then move the pitcher gained + ohtani into the spots that fried and morton vacated. They would probably take a tax hit this year, but after this year they would be back to where they were considering morton, fried, ozuna are about 58 mil a yr and ohtani + pitcher gained would equal about that per year, maybe a bit more.
MarkoRock68
MTOG
Actually that is not entirely true. Players pay taxes in the state the games are played., so 81 Games would be at Ontario rates.
However if you look at the top tax brackets for both state-provincial and federal levels income taxes are not that much different from the Dodgers, Giants, Angels, Yankees, Mets and Jays to name but a few.
The only places with a real advantage are the no or low income tax states like Texas and Florida.
Wiseoldfool
Gravely concur with LA……Lovely Atlanta. Go Braves !
solaris602
They’re not gonna spend that kind of money.
VonPurpleHayes
It’s interesting people say that, but look at their payroll already. They’re a top spender. Not on a NY/Philly/SD/LA level, but they’re up there. This would take them to the next level and they already have years of playoff revenue.
JackStrawb
@RunDMC He makes no sense for the Braves, who are guaranteed a postseason slot for at least the next 5 years and need a postseason ace if they want to win another World Series. That’s not Ohtani. It’s the opposite of Ohtani.
VonPurpleHayes
It absolutely is Ohtani.Just not in 2024.
bravessfan2016
I Would agree 100k percent but nobody should be surprised if it happens AA has never ever believed in making his plans public and hes not going to start doing so now …..
unpaidobserver
What does Atlanta need with a DH? Or for that matter starter who cant be ready until 2025?
RunDMC
What does ATL need with a 10-WAR player…? Did they win the World Series last year — or even a playoff series…? Every team needs Ohtani, some just more than others.
Fried is most likely gone after 2024 — enter Ohtani to the rotation to fill the void. Morton at 41 years old, most likely won’t be back, in 2025. Ozuna is in the last year of a guaranteed contract with 2025 being an option.
ATLbravos
@rundmc i totally agree with you. Alot of finances will be headed braves way. Personally if braves are going to spend that kind of money id rather it be on yamamota and shota. Try to trade fried and ozuna to get that LF/DH since neither one of them is coming back next year. Might as well get something for them.
JoeBrady
RunDMC11 hours ago
What does ATL need with a 10-WAR player…? Did they win the World Series last year — or even a playoff series…?
=======================
Neither did the NYM, NYY, or SDP with their combined billion $$$ payroll.
This is a sport where individual players don’t guarantee WSC’s. And if you want to increase your WS odds, you are better off with an ace pitcher.
VonPurpleHayes
@JoeBrady Ohtani is an ace pitcher though….it’s not like he’d be signing a one-year deal.
Fever Pitch Guy
Von – He’s started more than 23 games only once, and averaged only 14 starts in his career. That’s not an ace.
JoeBrady
VonPurpleHayes19 hours ago
@JoeBrady Ohtani is an ace pitcher though…
======================
“WAS” an ace pitcher. The history of second TJS is not good.
Right now, they would be adding a DH to a team that led the league in scoring. I think they’d be much better off signing YY & Snell for the $50, than signing a DH that might be as good as Snell or YY in another year.
RunDMC
@JoeBrady — I appreciate your comments questions Ohtani’s IP and whether he could be considered an “ace”, despite the sterling results. However, if you’re paying Judge 9/360M (40M AAV) in 2022, is it really so unfathomable to pay a slightly younger Ohtani 10/450M (45M AAV) for his bat alone, especially knowing that if there were concerns about his arm long-term, he most likely could play OF before DH? Now, him being a pitcher (and having 2nd TJ surgery, which other pitchers have done successfully: Eovaldi, Taillon, etc.), I’d think his resume as a SP (4th in Cy voting ’22) or averaging 4.7 bWAR from 2021-2023 on the mound, apart from pitching, could get a team to pay an additional $200M, considering Rodon got 6/162M (27M AAV) in 2022 from NYY despite only have 2 significant seasons (2021-22) averaging 5.25 bWAR. Of course, not the same situation, but I reference Rodon because he had elite production for a couple of seasons ahead of FA, when he cashed in, which could more accurately describe Ohtani’s pitching value (alone) on the open market, but even that’s not a parallel, considering Rodon was healthy (presumably) when signed, and Ohtani we already know will miss at least 1 year of pitching on the mound. That being said, a team is still getting plenty of production from his bat.
The history of 2nd TJS is not good, but continues to get better (i.e. WS champ: Eovaldi). No reason to think why Ohtani couldn’t have a similar path.
‘61AngelFan
Not sure Atlanta’s a dark horse.
I think it’ll either be the Angels on a short(ish) term deal or one with a lot of opt outs (or both). New leadership (at least in the dugout) may lure Ohtani back.
Or Atlanta. The Braves have the city and the baseball environment that should suit him.
It’s a toss up.
Ma4170
Agree, I don’t think Ohtani to the Braves is realistic at all. If it happens, I’ll eat my words, but I’d bet a lot of money it won’t. You’re talking about a team that’s never given a contract higher than $212M, and now they’re going to $500M+? Don’t think so
RunDMC
I don’t think so either, hence: dark horse. But from all reports (which could be wrong), Ohtani doesn’t sound like he’s going after the highest bidder. He wants to be comfortable and in the best position to routinely win at the highest level. Sure, ATL could not be the highest bidder and it still could be too much money, a lot seem to think that ATL’s signed contracts are because they don’t HAVE THE MONEY — which is incorrect. Olson got an extension worth more than the reported contract offer to his replacement: Freeman, a week after. They didn’t just take out a loan, they valued a younger kid more for a longer period of time for lesser AAV.
The question is: does AA value Ohtani enough to warrant a serious enough offer for Ohtani to be more than just “intrigued” by the idea?
robw5555
Definitely not the Braves. That team is generally smart with money and this would only cause other players to want far more from them. Toronto, no way. You wonder if Red Sox, Mets and Rangers are intentionally broadcasting they are not bidding. He only needs one team and to get the Dodgers to pay more, needs to make sure he has a few bids so LA can pay the max price.
TheBoatmen
It may not be the Jays but the Jays will make one of the other 3 pay what he is worth.
scissormetimbers
Jays probably offer the most $$$, but he signs with the Dodgers. Jays are just being used as leverage at this pt.
Balk
No one is offering more money than the Giants on Ohtani. They are in the most need for a star player by far. Maybe not sign him, but they have proven money will not be the object in signing a star player. You’re right about one thing. He’s going to sign where he wants to play.
bullred
Yes sad but true as a Jays fan. It makes sense that you would have two large market , relatively deep pocketed teams in on the bidding in the Cubs and Jays to push the Dodgers to the level of spending that they are uncomfortable with. The fans of both teams will understand why he picked sunny Cali of course but it was nice to dream for a short while.
Balk
Bullred…it’s going to come down to where he wants to play. Just like Judge, Harper, and all the big free agent players. The Giants have never shied away from the money aspect. Just never seem to convince a player to sign there. Not counting Correa.
unpaidobserver
Well they havent yet demonstrated that other than sign a star player or two they actually have a plan to compete.
Balk
Unpaidobserver ….thats false, they have some good pieces in Web, Harrison, Yaz, Matos, Luciano and Bailey, on top playing better over the Padres 3/4 of the season showed a pretty good demonstration of trying to compete.
Phree4u
Who would want to live in SF?
Guaranteed the highest bid isn’t landing ohtani, I agree whole-heartedly with your assessment that he is going to pick where he wants to play.
unpaidobserver
My guy theres no shortage if punters. Sorry the town your from’s main destination is the one blinking light at the center of town.
Fever Pitch Guy
Balk – I completely agree. The Giants are a team without an identity, there is no face of the franchise. They are greatly in need of a star player, and Ohtani would fill that role quite well.
rememberthecoop
He could choose to re-sign with the Angels. Look, the money will probably be similar and he is comfortable there. I still think it’s the Dodgers, of course, but I wouldn’t rule out a return to the Halos.
i like al conin
Plausible for sure, but it seems like it’d have to be accompanied by an increase in payroll since the farm system is again barren and they need more good players.
bullred
Nothing is going to ensure an increase in payroll as much as adding a 50 Million dollar DH to your payroll in year 1 and year 6 through 12 of Ohtani’s contract.
ASapsFables
As if there haven’t been late-30’s power aces making huge bucks and actually earning them, like Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. JV even managed to garner a CYA in his age 36 AND age 39 seasons.
As for Ohtani’s other half, why couldn’t he continue to rake…especially as an exclusive DH. Is that unheard of in a baseball world that boasts HOF DH’s Edgar Martinez and David Ortiz, to say nothing of more recent productive sluggers like Nelson Cruz and J.D. Martinez.
Additionally, you’d be getting an ace and a proven MVP bat for a price not far off from what Juan Soto figures to earn very shortly. Soto, the generational hitter who’s overall WAR is negatively impacted by defensive metrics at an age 4 years younger than that of the unicorn.
JoeBrady
As for Ohtani’s other half, why couldn’t he continue to rake…
========================
Too old. History has shown us that he will probably decline post-32.
robw5555
Most teams should pass on Soto. I think Boras is looking for 500M. Will the Yankees really want him as a rental? I doubt it.
Fever Pitch Guy
Joe – As with everything, history has shown the best do not decline much if at all after age 32.
Gwynn batted .356/.400/.500/.900 after age 32.
Ortiz batted .285/.376/.548/.925 after age 32.
Ted Williams batted .340/.478/.635/1.113 after age 32.
So many more …
JoeBrady
I have no doubt that SOMEONE will do well.
I have a whole lot of doubt that MOST of them will do well.
I had someone bust me out with a 56s against my AA, all-in before the flop. But I am still going to make the same bet going forward.
Flanster
@coop……I would love to see that!!
Bsleeper
He not signing with the Halo’s sorry to say. If he was it would be done already. With all the changes within there organization now there too many unknowns. Personally I wouldn’t be surprised if it someone else that either no longer being talked about or not talked about at all to this point. Remember he wants contact talks kept quiet.
robw5555
I give the Angels a better chance than the Cubs, Blue Jays. He needs to string a few bids in order to get the Dodgers to pay up big.
unpaidobserver
I think youre right only because the ten foot signs of Ohtani greeting you at a Tokyo mall look very good with that scarlet red. Other than pinstripes I just cant imagine that image getting better.
rondon
No one is thinking Cubs here.. But was anyone thinking they’d go after Counsell and give him 40 mill?
JackStrawb
It made sense, though. Whether that’s a Cubs imprimatur, I can’t say, but getting a good manager with an excellent record compared to his Pythagorean record is absolutely worth it. If he’s worth just win a year more than your average $3m a year manager, he’s more than worth that deal—and Counsell has been able to beat his Pythagorean record by as much as 8 wins, and he’s done it more than once.
rondon
All true. My point was that they may continue to surprise.
Phree4u
Not only did they upgrade their manager. They also ensured that their biggest threat in the brewers essentially downgraded at manager.
Worth the money.
Would also consider trading for cease if the cardinals are Serious about getting him just to keep him out of STL.
mohoney
The Cubs are listed as one of the finalists in every report I see. I fail to see how “no one is thinking Cubs.”
The only real negative in Chicago when compared to L.A. is the cold-weather games in April.
rondon
Sure, it’s in the headlines, but very few commenters on these boards think the Cubs will sign him.
CommentsSectionCommenter
@Mohoney
Another negative:
The much worse team.
And another:
The lack of a reason to believe that’s changing, any time soon….
ASapsFables
My money remains on the Dodgers but I do give the Cubs a fighter’s chance. 🙂
larkraxm
Not sure why Toronto or Chicago are even considered long shots? It will be a west coast team. Giants, Dodgers, Angels. Probably in that order. I guess other teams can say they were in the top 5!
Anthony maresca
Ohtani is NOT going to the Cubs period! Its Dodgers 100% and that was decided last year! His agent will try to sqeeze every dime out of Dodgers but they are known to not bid against themselves and know Ohtani wants to play there. Its 9/450 and done!
Blue Baron
@Anthony maresca: You have no way to know he will sign with the Dodgers.
Captain-Judge99
Just stop getting so butt hurt all the time! Relax!
User 401527550
It’s going to be way more than 9/450. Expect him to be in San Fran if that is the Dodgers route.
Oldhalo
Dodgers need starting pitching more than a bat. There is no guarantee that he will pitch at an elite level when he returns from TJ surgery for a second time. So while he has an elite bat he might not be the right investment for the Dodgers right now. That doesn’t mean to say he won’t end up with the Dodgers but it’s certainly not 100% that he does.
Balk
Anthony….no way! Not even close. His marketability is worth 250 million alone, not even counting his skills. 600 million will be the ballpark figure
JackStrawb
Watch his marketability collapse when his OPS drops to .780 and he’s a #5 starter.
Balk
Jack…by the time that happens the team will have made their money back
AndyWarpath
A .780 ops and innings eater in the 5th spot is still worth, what, $20m a year?
Balk
Andy…exactly
unpaidobserver
Well Lance freaking Lynn just got $13MM so one would think a good deal more than $13MM.
CommentsSectionCommenter
@JackStrawb:
And he’d STILL be more valuable than most every player in the sport…..
robw5555
He is trying to get as many bidders as he can. That way the Dodgers will pay up big. If they pushed back he would definitely consider SF and the Angels. forget the inning stuff. He goes to the highest bidder. When is the last time the Yankees won it all? They win games during the season, but they havent won it all. Thats what I wonder when players keep saying winning. The Braves have won many games and they have 4 World Series wins and two in the past 26 years. The Marlins have 2 World Series wins in 30 years, Dodgers 3 WS wins in 30 yrs. . Blue Jays one WS in 30 years. Its tough to pick World Series winners. Its the highest bidder the majority of the time with a few exceptions here and there. Even with the pressure of NY most players go to the Yankees or Mets, when they outbid others. They try to negotiate extra money for state income taxes, same for LA./SF.
Seamaholic
I don’t think Dodgers are especially interested. They’re useful as a looming bag man for his agents, but it isn’t really their style or their need. I would seriously doubt the Giants will spend that kind of money either, especially on a guy who can’t pitch this coming year and is coming off his second major arm surgery. I think it’s Cubs vs Angels and that’s pretty well it, unless Shohei himself has a preference for someone, like the Dodgers, and takes a more team friendly deal.
refugee
Would love to know what the price point is that is causing the Mets and others to drop out.
marinersfan1977
it doesn’t seem like price is the reason those teams are dropping out — more ;likely those teams have realized that Ohtani is not interested in playing for them.
drprofsps
I remember the Dodgers players commenting that when he did his first go around, he was not signing with the Dodgers or any other NL club at the time with no DH. I was hoping for the Rangers but I don’t think we will fork out that kind of money. I see him signing a 12/400+ contract with deferrals. I don’t think he will break 500 or 600 million with injury concerns. He is a pure DH at this point and maybe a back up OF if he cannot pitch again. I do see the SF Giants as a real landing spot. I don’t see the Dodgers paying him, they wouldn’t part Corey Seager why would they pay this guy?
lfcredsox
or they have more pressing needs like starting pitchers that can actually pitch this year and are way cheaper
stymeedone
Assuming its the price point may be a mistake.
robw5555
There is a special Steven Cohen tax. My guess is they told Steve he needs to pay 500m minimum to be in the game. I think Soto will also want 500m.
Balk
Seam….the Giants were willing to pay Judge 390 mill or whatever it was, and judge is no Ohtani. The Giants will pay whatever it takes to land him
User 401527550
I would rather have Judge than Ohtani if Ohtani isn’t pitching. Ohtani is having his 2nd tommy john surgery and pitching might be a thing of there past.
JackStrawb
What are you talking about? Judge is a better hitter than Ohtani. A vastly better offensive player, 20 WAR to 14 WAR from 2021-2023.
Balk
What I’m talking about is the length of the contract, and age, and being able to stay on the field. Judges contract will not age well. Fact
unpaidobserver
Well you could already say Judges contract hasnt. I mean, this was supposed to be one of the surplus value years.
stymeedone
And Ohtani has been the symbol for health?
Ma4170
@jack He’s not a vastly better hitter, but he’s been better overall to this point. The numbers are buoyed mostly by his historic 2022. In 2021, they had the same WRC+ of 150 . 2022 Judge went crazy and had a 209 WRC+ to Ohtani’s 142. Last year, Ohtani 180, Judge 174. Did Judge show he has the higher ceiling? Sure, 2022 was amazing. Ohtani could easily put up another year like last year or better. He’s two years younger, so more likely he will do that than Judge repeating 2022. And with him likely going to a different ballpark and lineup, we could potentially see a jump in the numbers (or a drop, depending where he goes).
Blue Baron
@Mets6986: Look at Judge’s size. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he’s juicing it up like Bonds, McGwire, Sosa, Cano, and Clemens did.
robw5555
He might not be able to pitch many innings and for how long? Remember Judge is a big dude. So is Stanton and Trout. Judge had his share of injuries, although he has been ok the past two years. Ideally he will eventually move to DH. Yankee fans cheered for Stanton when they got him. Now boos.
robw5555
Judge is in the early part of this deal. Things can turn so fast. Stanton had injuries on the Marlins but Yankee fans expected 50 HR a year when they got him. Ticker tape parades etc. He is definitely on the downside now. Can they move him somehow?
User 401527550
Yes I don’t accuse people and defame them with no evidence at all.
Blue Baron
This is only a website discussion thread and I’m not “accusing” anyone. Just saying I wouldn’t be surprised.
CommentsSectionCommenter
@Mets6g86
But Ohtani is the equal of Judge offensively…is two years younger…and would be the superior right fielder, when/if his pitching career ends.
But sure.
(PS: Sorry he doesn’t want to play for Uncle Stevie’s $$$.)
robw5555
I would be shocked. You make some good points. It does look like they have been waiting to bid for him. I cannot see any team friendly deal for Ohtani. He sees a huge market team with deep pockets. Why would he not go for the max deal that is guaranteed.? I know the other option is some short term deal with various options if he can pitch. Will there be some creative deal for him?
LordD99
Seems likely that they’ve been informed they’re out of the competition.
Gmen777
I think the Giants offer the most $$$ personally. They’re beyond desperate for a superstar and you never see a player of this caliber hit the market. That being said I think LA gets him as their offer will be in the same ballpark and they’re a more competitive team which should be more enticing
gomer33
As a Jays fan I’m still stinging from Darvish. The Jays are the richest owners though not Steve. They are a corporation so maybe it’s calculated differently.
drasco036
Now that the Sox are out, I’m putting the odds:
Dodgers
Cubs
Giants
Jays
I think the Giants will offer the most but the team is probably the least intriguing of them all.
bullred
I don’t think the Jays would have a problem going to $600 Mil as Jays owner Rogers is a media company and Ohtani is one of biggest media properties in the world with many avenues of increased income in and out of baseball. The money is not the problem.
deweybelongsinthehall
Nothing should be considered gospel until a deal is signed. Teams sometimes deliberately misdirect and negotiations are as much art as science. The upcoming meetings should be fun to watch.
aragon
According to CBS Sports this morning, Angels are still in to sign him. I, myself, along with the most fans don’t think the team should focus on pitching only.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
Dodgers or Giants. No way anyone in the East allows him to go to Toronto. Doubt Cubs have the money to overturn those 2.
Still think Yankees are a dark horse.
drasco036
Cubs have the Marquee network, he would do more for them than the Dodgers and Giants. Also, I don’t see why anyone would sign with the Giants, the city is gross and if I was signing with a West team, it’s the Dodgers.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
I’ve never been to Cali but isn’t LA gross too? Like whiffing a pack of cigarettes? I’m not sure you have much argument on that
This one belongs to the Reds
Every big city has their gross areas, and the Midwest is still grungy from years of industrial smog too. I know, living there and all.
JackStrawb
True. I arrived in Des Moines from NYC on a summer Thursday evening, only to be greeted by the sight of a naked man chasing a girl down the street who couldn’t have been more than 14.
When I intervened she said, “it’s okay, he’s just a neighbor.”
Welcome to The Heartland.
drasco036
It’s true, every city has its bad parts but if you’ve never been to San Francisco, you cannot appreciate how disgusting of a city it is. Imagine the walking dead, but instead of zombies, it’s junkies. I’ve been to several large cities and Oakland and San Francisco are by far the worst.
drasco036
LA isn’t anywhere near as disgusting as San Francisco with a disclaimer that I spent most of my time in “LA” being in Beverly Hills and Hollywood area.
AndyWarpath
Every city has its gross parts. The worst of LA and the worst of SF are just as bad as negative degree temperatures in the worst of Chicago. San Francisco can still be absolutely stunning at times and has one of the best food and art cultures in the world.
unpaidobserver
The media conglomerates that pay oodles of money to baseball superstars are all based there (unless based in New York).
unpaidobserver
My friend some of the most iconic and beautiful places in the world are in the Bay. I have no clue why the tourist hotels all border the Tenderloin on one side and the midmarket area on the other side, two places locals never, ever go.
ElysianPark
It is clear you’ve never been to the state because no one here calls it “Cali.”
Entire cities are “gross?” No, only some things are. If you have never visited, how do you know?
Blue Baron
@thebiggesttrolTroll: Parts of LA are beautiful, especially Dodger Stadium.
It’s immaculately clean and by far the best game experience I’ve had among the 15 or so ballparks I have visited.
The coolest part is parking behind home plate and going down to your seats.
Javia135
Yeah, I hear Beverly Hills, Westwood, Silver Lake and Malibu are hell holes.
sfjackcoke
Like most big cities, if you wish to see “the worst” you need to seek it out. So not sure what exactly you were trying to score in SF.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
I wasn’t saying anything bad about SF. I was actually defending the city, but it was in response to another person. Not sure if you’re referring to me or not.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
I would like to see it personally. I was only pointing out what I heard from others but California is a place I want to explore.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
I even claimed in my post that I’ve never been there.
Am I like completely censored from talking about the state at all if I’ve never been there and specifically claimed this from the beginning?
What bothers me about this forum is so many people want to jump and start arguments over inconsequential information, specifically comments that aren’t meant to be arguments on.
The only thing I was doing was defending SF because the comment was saying the place was gross. I was basically saying I’ve heard parts of LA were gross too but it was by word of mouth. I mentioned this simply to defend SF, not to remark negatively about LA. I am actually planning to visit LA and SF one day and am looking forward to it.
NY has trashy areas too, so it’s not like I singled LA out by any means. Nor does it mean all of NY is trash.
drasco036
The difference in LA and San Francisco and the Cubs is Marquee. Most tv deals bring teams about 50 million in revenue, the Marquee brought the Cubs 180 plus the past two seasons and Ohtani would push that revenue past 250 million.
To me, that’s what gives the Cubs an edge, they can spend more because their “tv deal” will immediately pay dividends by signing Ohtani where the dodgers and giants are locked into their deals.
This one belongs to the Reds
Dodgers get 200 million from their local deal, Giants 100 million. Neither are Bally’s, so they are doing just fine on local TV compared to most teams.
I don’t think a TV network is affecting Ohtani’s decision one way or another.
drasco036
As per usual, you missed the point.
The Cubs own 100% of their tv network, so if their profits go up 100 million, they get all that money. It was a measuring competition on how much tv deals were.
This one belongs to the Reds
I think you actually missed the point, as you are still talking about networks, but that’s ok. You do you.
CleaverGreene
The Dodgers got 220M on their TV deal and a lot of TV money is shared anyway.
stymeedone
And how do those East teams stop Toronto from signing him?
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
No way Toronto outbids the Yankees. No offense, but you’re nuts if you think Ohtani is going to Toronto. He’s going to a big city with a lot of money.
metsgolf
Toronto is the 4th largest city in North America.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
Not in baseball it isn’t. How many stars have you seen go to Toronto in place of L.A., New York, or Chicago? Toronto may be largest in size, but not market value.
920kodiak
Thank you.
CommentsSectionCommenter
@…biggest Troll
If you want to be taken seriously, you might want to spend more Internet time on sites other than MLBTR.
Your LA/SF takes read like they’ve been written by a kid who’s never left his dead-end hometown, and to not know that Toronto is a world capital and that the Jays are FLUSH with corporate-conglomerate money makes you look dumber than you almost certainly are.
Then again, your trolling is without peer….
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
Fine, if you truly think that. The fact that you haven’t even mentioned a single part of my argument (aside from SF/LA) but instead attack my rhetoric tells me that after this comment it’s just not worth responding. I have no idea what comment you are referring to, so if you want clear rhetoric, maybe clarify and put it in coherent terms because your arguing about my rhetoric more than the actual topic.
I don’t take offense because you still haven’t told me what you disagree with.
CommentsSectionCommenter
@Troll:
What argument? You were discussing SF and LA (“like whiffing a pack of cigarettes”…? What?) while admitting you’ve never been to the state (which no one calls “Cali”), and later, suggested Ohtani wouldn’t go to Toronto because he wants to play in a big city with big money.
Those aren’t arguments; they’re just evidence of your lack of knowledge (or, more likely, how apt your screen-name is).
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
Opinions, opinions… okay. You can hate what I want to say, but I based the first one off what I don’t know and explicitly stated that based on the ethos of others… what it comes down to is that I don’t think he cares, he will go to whoever pays him more.
And I don’t think that’s Toronto. Call me out for disagreeing, fine, but no need to come at me personally.
My username has a reason for it, just so you know, but you probably look, see, assume, and don’t want to listen to the whole story. Too bad for you, it’s a good one.
Funny how you think I live here…
If you think I’m upset, I’m laughing inside. You’ve derailed everything
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
By the way, the smoking was only in response to someone who said SF was a dump… we all know money is going to dictate the decision more than geography, and even if geography is an option, not everyone looks at SF that way, which was inherently my point and went over your head. You should be questioning why that was brought up, not my response to it.
27champyankees
Ohtani ain’t signing w/ the Giants. LOL
He’s been Very vocal regarding his future:
He wants to play for a WINNER SF Giants have only posted a winning season one time since 2016
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
It’s all dependent on money and marketing. They have more championships than the Yankees in the last 20 years. How is that losing Mr. 27?
I agree that the Giants probably won’t get him, but not because of your reason.
I wouldn’t rule out Giants but Yankees and Dodgers seem the most probable. I also think a return to the Angel’s is possible. Cubs? Possibly but not high on my list. Forget about Toronto though.
Captain-Judge99
At around $600 million? These teams would be wise to pass on a man without a position next season truthfully, glad Ohtani doesn’t want to come to New York, he’s way to sensitive to play here anyway, he wouldn’t be able to handle it. Basically he isn’t tough enough. It would be way to challenging for him. Poor baby.
Go Go Power Rangers
What has he done in his career for you to believe he is sensitive? If anything he’s been stoic up to this point. It’s clear he wanted to win with the Angels and he’s done no complaining and continued to show respect to the franchise.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
Where are you hearing he doesn’t want to come to the Yankees? You’ve been saying this without posting any evidence.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
Okay, it says Yankees are a longshot to sign him but nothing about the place being too much pressure for him.
Jaysfansince92
Actually there has been more than one article saying he doesn’t want to go to a team that is known for media frenzy. That is New York more than any other team.
drasco036
If you think a team would be wise to pass on Ohtani, you don’t understand marketing.
People think I’m a “homer” because I expect the Cubs to sign Ohtani but it’s not that. I think Bellinger and Yamamoto is a better allocation of 500 million dollars in terms of roster building. I expect the Cubs to sign because Tim Ricketts cares more about marketing than the team and he’s shown a tremendous willingness to invest his own money to increase the long term value of the team.
Any team that signs Ohtani is signing less for what he is going to do on the field and more for what he’s going to do for their bottom line.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
I don’t think you’re right on that at all. To some degree, marketing is great, but you still need talent for the money to be justifiable.
I don’t think the Cubs will sign Ohtani.
Phree4u
If Talent is a requirement for profitability, then I fail to understand the Kardashians.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
I guess I mean more results on the field.
CommentsSectionCommenter
@Captain-Judge99
The “man without a position next year” is the offensive equal of your post-apocalyptic franchise’s best player, while also being two years younger and a superior right fielder (should Ohtani’s pitching career end) than him.
Of course, the main reason he likely doesn’t to play in the Bronx is because he wants to play for a perennial winner and WS contender, which obviously eliminates franchises such as yours…..
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
The only reason Yankees backed out is because they’re smart and don’t want to designate all their resources toward Ohtani. If they really wanted him, they have the money.
its_happening
Toronto isn’t serious.
pogo
My thing is if he doesn’t prefer NY because of the media side. He should head to SF. LA has a massive TV deal with lots of extra content to fill. Chicago is Chicago still and media isn’t as crazy as LA or NY but up there still. SF media is very different for a market that still spends money. As a fan of SFG….. I want one of the international stars. If it’s not Ohtani I would feel lucky to have any of them. I’m interested in what the calm and respectful reputation could do to galvanize a group of you players.
This one belongs to the Reds
Makes sense. Going nowhere but the West Coast, told folks that long ago. Player preference.
Jesse Chavez enthusiast
Probably, but cash and options can sway things.
Yoki
Shohei Ohtani gave up a heck of a ton of money when he first came here rather than wait another year.
He has shown before that money isn’t an issue.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
Statements like these tend to not age well. Ohtani was signed before we knew he was going to be a superstar. People were doubting the two way player until they saw him play. You can’t possibly think money was as much an issue then as it is now. He’s proven himself and he’s going to want to get paid now that he has many more suitors. Teams are backing out because they can’t afford him.
brewsingblue82
He’s going to have plenty of cash options on the west coast though. Cubs, Jays or even the Braves will likely have to put up an offer well above the rest. The Braves would at least have the “perennial contender” aspect though. So they might not be to outbid as much as the rest. But both the Jays and the Cubs would likely need to push boundaries on the payroll.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
I was thinking Yankees before but after reading they are backing out, I honestly feel it’s between the Giants and Dodgers. I really don’t think the Jays or Cubs have the resources and I still don’t know why everyone is picking the Braves.
I actually think it might be the Giants this time.
RunDMC
Re: SF — sure, they have a lot of money to spend, but if he really wants to compete, they don’t have much RIGHT NOW to offer him confidence they can routinely win besides a lot of promises. Does Ohtani want to be the first piece or the final piece? Seems like he wants to be the final piece — and that ain’t San Fran unless JD Davis, Austin Slater, Haniger, Conforto are receiving packages from Balco.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
The thing is though, winning is a crapshoot. Dodgers haven’t won a single series I’m the last twenty years besides the asterisk season and yet they’re the best regular season team.
Braves have built several dynasties and only have 3 World Series to their name.
Who thought the Texas Rangers would win this year?
It’s better for him to go for money because winning isn’t anywhere near a guarantee. Any one of those teams can win any given year as well. Giants are two years away from winning over a 100 games.
DugoutJester
I personally believe it boils down to more culture rather than actual geographics.
WiffleBall
Yeah, I never really bought the idea that being on the West Coast is preferable because of travel time to/from Japan. The difference in flight time is minimal, all things considered.
Culturally, though, I think some players prefer West Coast for the more laid-back, less pressure-fueled atmosphere. And it makes sense that players from Japan might not want the intense scrutiny of New York/Boston/Philadelphia/Etc.
Catuli Carl
Then why did he meet with the Cubs when he first came over in 2017?
Seamaholic
Rangers were his second choice when he came over. You’re making stuff up.
This one belongs to the Reds
Cubs fans say they were second choice, Dodgers fans say they were. Unless you know him, you all are making stuff up.
Catuli Carl
But you aren’t because you know him.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
@Seam Seattle came in 2nd place on the first go-around.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
I wouldn’t rule out every team besides the West Coast. I still think Yankees are involved
Jake Biggar
As a Red Sox fan that’s fine, Devers is gonna have to DH eventually and Yoshida already needs to DH. Yamamoto should be Breslow’s #1 focus with Montgomery being the contingency plan if he goes elsewhere. We need at least 2 starters this off-season, one being a TOR type arm.
rememberthecoop
Yamamoto is likely signing with the Mets.
budman_63755
Stop pretending that you know anything!
Go Go Power Rangers
I see him going to the yanks personally
DBH1969
@Jake, I completely agree! This contract will be silly and the back end of it will be a financial disaster for whoever pulls the trigger. 50 mils gets the Sox an ace, a #3, and maybe a 2nd baseman.
smart move by abreslow!!!
GASoxFan
It’s not just the years, the money, or the question of not only pitching effectiveness after a 2nd TJ but, with two under his belt, how will he hold up for the future….
He also refuses to pitch on less than 6 days rest meaning you STILL need a 5th starter for your normal rotation, or, force your BP into filling a game a week, every week.
DBH1969
Excellent points, GA!!
drasco036
Which again puts the Cubs in good position. They have Steele, Hendricks, Taillon, Wicks, Assad, Smyly, rumored to be looking at another starter and have Horton and Brown in AAA.
ASapsFables
I’ll pose a question here:
Would most teams be willing to spend $50MM annually to acquire an MVP bat AND an ace pitcher for their lineup and rotation? I believe the answer would be an emphatic YES!
The question regarding Ohtani’s age and TJ history are valid. But that might also be a concern for most any elite free agent bat or ace who would turn 30 in the first year of a new contract.
GASoxFan
Discount the bat for not playing the field.
How many pure DH-only bats have won an MVP?
Discount the pitching for being a second TJ, missing 50% of his years, and, who refuses to pitch on 5 days rest, usually barely hitting 130 IP in a high-workload year. That’s not prototypical “ace” stuff. I’d also prefer my ‘ace’ not to carry a FIP of 3.50-4.00 or higher in all but one season in MLB
Jack of two trades, master of none
DBH1969
@ASaps, a counter question… Do you think he should take a 2 year deal to prove is arm is finale, and if not, why?
Anyone is free to answer, but be warned… the question is a bear trap!
GASoxFan
DBH – I’d argue any contract Ohtani signs likely will be almost exactly that, with an opt-out within 2 to 3 seasons that let’s him re-test the market if the arm is there, or, stay put if it isn’t, and another opt out possibly down the road
DBH1969
Hmm, so he gets an opt out, but not the team? Why not just do a 2 year deal?
GASoxFan
Yep. Usually the way it works.
The FAIR way to do his contract would be 10/200 base with 500k per SP start, and 100k/IP in yearly bonuses
He wants more money? Start every 5th day instead of 6. Otherwise, even 5IP per appearance gives him a $1m per game.
It’d NEVER happen, but, would be a fair way around the risk of the anomalous ‘fully-guaranteed’ nature of mlb deals that doesn’t require CBA modifications to shift to, and, would be interesting if there were a shift towards
DBH1969
This I agree with. 20 mil for a very good dh is fair
JoeBrady
$50M for how long? At age 29, he has 3-4 premium years left. Even a ten-year contract is too long.
And can he pitch after a 2nd TJS?
DBH1969
Now, since everyone who says he worth the contract suddenly got busy, I will play question and answer with my s3lf…
Those who are posting he deserves the big contract will say he shouldn’t do a 2 year deal because he might get hurt but see no reason a team wouldn’t want to pay 12 years, half a billion for a guy with a twice blown out elbow until he is 42.
I call BS. If the brace repair doesnt take and he he blows out his arm again he will need a full TJS… another 2 years of no baseball at all!!!
Ohtani, right now, is worth no more that 20mil a year. Period!
ASapsFables
If Ohtani only nets an AAV of $50MM his price is already a discounted one. I don’t believe most teams would balk at paying $25MM annually for a proven 2-time MVP DH who is still very much in his prime years.
The same thinking should also apply to Ohtani’s resume as an ace pitcher especially considering how much AAV dollars older pitchers like Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke earned well beyond the “wrong side of 30”.
I could easily keep the same argument if Ohtani’s AAV hits $30MM+.
One also needs to factor in the unicorns worth in terms of added revenue he will generate for his next team. His value is off the charts in comparison to any other MLB player. You won’t find any baseball players sniffing the top-20 among the world’s highest earning athletes when combining salary and endorsements. That’s about to change once Ohtani signs his free agent contract.
DBH1969
I maybe, might have agreed 2 years ago and been having regrets 2 years into a 10 to 12 year deal.
But you are not getting 12 years of ace from a 30 year old. Maybe 6 to 8. But that is before the latest injury.
AngelsFan1968
@GA, I agree with all your points. Because of his marketing value, I would do a 5/200 contract with opt outs starting after the 3rd year. with escalators to add dollars/years.
GASoxFan
Ohtani has been in MLB for 6 seasons.
He has only qualified ONCE for the ERA title because he failed to miss the IP requirements the other 5 times. Interesting fact.
So, should he even be referred to as an ACE?
GASoxFan
And, the / disappeared in there…. failed to/miss the …..
DBH1969
Haha. GA dropping Truth Bombs today! Gonna call you GA-52 for the rest of the day!
GASoxFan
Then let’s continue with another interesting factual tid-bit…
The B-52s started their playing career in GA, so, the name may be fitting. That said, no loveshack to write into Ohtani’s player contract perks unless he were to follow the As to Vegas, in which case there is a potential for a ‘Happy Ending’, especially if the club has training facilities outside the city limits
bullred
Yes the opt out will be there to give the player guarantees he is not missing out on a more lucrative deal. The player is in the driver’s seat during free agency and calls the shots. The teams don’t have a gun to their heads and don’t have to sign the deals.
DBH1969
Tin roof rusty, man. Tin roof rusty!
bullred
I think teams are making so much money off of marketing Ohtani in the first few years it will pay for the last few years of the deal. Ohtani is not just another player. He will be viewed as historic and culturally significant when he retires. A team will be paying for that.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
Re: Ohtani insisting on being a part of a 6-man rotation: what’s the rationale for this? Other than that’s what his routine has always been? Why wouldn’t he be amenable to a 5-man rotation ?
GASoxFan
S-o-b : when he came over from Japan one of his conditions for signing was that he would not pitch more frequently than the NPB standard for rest – 6 days between starts by the time you get their off days factored in, with 6-man rotations.
If he didn’t back off that demand over the last 6 years, no reason to expect he will now.
AngelsFan1968
Exactly. When he first came here, he would only pitch once a week and wouldn’t hit the day before or the day after he pitched,
The last 3 years or so though, the Angels allowed him to dictate when he’d pitch, hit or take a day off.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
@GA I just was reminded that Fred Schneider is from New Jersey and not Athens, I always forget about that lol.
chalk73
Exactly, that is why he isn’t going to sign with anyone who won’t let him dictate when and where he is going to play. And that is why he is going to sign with the Angels.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
The further this gets drawn out, the higher the likelihood he goes back to Anaheim IMHO. But two months ago I would have bet my left kidney Ohtani was going to leave Anaheim, no matter what.
AngelsFan1968
Is that Dave Chalk?
stymeedone
Was.that so he wouldn’t tax his arm and need surgury? Doesn’t seem to have worked out too well.
M.C.Homer
100% agreed. I’d bet the house on it.
Steinbrenner2728
I agree, DBH! Dropped more truth “bombs” than the B-52’s did on Tokyo! Take that, Ohtani! Semper Fi!
JerseyShoreScore
Ohtani will pitch in 2025 or play the OF. He will NEVER strictly be a DH for the majority of his contract. He provide secondary defensive value in the OF or off the charts value as a pitcher. Even if you looked at his pitching and he started for 5 years and was a closer for 2 or 3 seasons. His level of starting pitching is $30 mil per and closer are $15 to $20 mil per.
If he were just an OF, $400 mil for 10 years would be the starting point at bidding.
The new revenue he generates will offset much of his contract anyway.
Ohtani’s contract is the biggest winner for an organization in history.
rondon
ASap… That last paragraph. In all the arguments against this guy, I’m not seeing anyone talking about the “added revenue he will generate for his new team.” It is absolutely off the charts.
ElysianPark
How do you know other teams aren’t going to let him dictate that?
stratcolonel
Ohtani would be worth that if he was not coming off an arm injury. He’s not worth the price of both an elite hitter AND elite starting pitcher if he’s not pitching in 2024 and his pitching future is uncertain..
Jaysfansince92
It has been mentioned that he was actually a very good defensive OF in Japan. If for whatever reason he can’t pitch anymore he would likely transition to a full-time OF.
Jaysfansince92
He’s not going to do a 2 year deal when he could easily get a much longer deal with an optout. Yes the team does not get an opportunity, but they are not the ones in the driver’s seat. Any team that tries to insist on a 2 year deal is out of the bidding.
M.C.Homer
For perspective, the Angels paid Syndergaard and Upton $53 million combined in 2022….
Shohei would provide more value than those two even just as a hitter
Ma4170
I agree that he’s phenomenal but will be overpaid, considering the 2nd TJS and his lack of durability as a sp so far. He has ace ability, but id think evaluators wouldnt predict him to ever repeat his 2022 sp numbers. I dont think he’ll be ace level again, and playing both sides will wear him down more quickly. Before getting hurt i thought $500M was automatic. Now i just think its foolish (baseball wise).
JoeBrady
Spot-on correct, imo.
The RS should never even consider Ohtani.
Robrock30
It will be either Dodgers or Angels IMO and the loser of the two will pivot hard to land Yamamoto.
cadagan
@Robrock30,
I think so also.
Robrock30
He knows what his max value is and the Dodgers will offer it to him.
I believe he is comfortable in LA and is still loyal to the Angels who won’t let him go easily. The question is his desire to win a WS which has higher odds with Freeman & Betts. We shall soon see. Yamamoto is timing this to see where the elephant in the room lands to make his choice.
paddyo furnichuh
A “tad”hubristic, but I’ll be okay (as LAD fan) if they “only” get Yamamoto and Ohtani.
M.C.Homer
Loyalty runs deep in this man just like Trout.
Winning with the Angels is the type of challenge he desires.
ElysianPark
And you know this because…..?
M.C.Homer
If you can read Japanese, Seiko did an interview with Shohei before 2023 season and expanded his thoughts on this subject in the interview.
Reynaldo
He’s not dumb enough to try the Angels again; they are a systemic rot.
Robrock30
Loyalty may be important to him as long as the $ are comparable.
Not sure how he weighs loyalty vs. winning. They might not be incompatible.
Seamaholic
No one knows if he actually cares primarily about winning. Most players don’t, despite what they say. He’s very well cared for and his public statements extremely vetted. We actually know exactly nothing about his priorities.
M.C.Homer
Sick of hearing how great the Angels Dodgers are.
The Dodgers won a tournament a few years ago and nothing else since.
Are you not frustrated Dodger fans?
The Angels are the reigning World Series champs in LA.
Los Angeles means Angels in Spanish.
So remember, the team is literally and will forever be called….The Angels Dodgers
ElysianPark
Right,and none of the other 29 teams bothered playing in 2020 because they felt it would be meaningless.
Jaysfansince92
Even as a Jays fan I’m tired of hearing people say the Dodgers’ 2020 WS win is meaningless. They were always going to make the postseason whether it was 162 games or 60. The only question was what they would do when they got to the postseason and they won.
User 401527550
Yamamoto will be signed first. Nothing to pivot to.
Robrock30
I doubt it. Yamamoto is better off waiting for the price tag to be set with Ohtani and then let the losers enter his market.
Besides not sure if Yamamoto wants to be the only Japanese player on his team or maybe he will follow Ohtani. I have read conflicting reports about this so we shall see.
GASoxFan
If true, great news for Boston.
He just isn’t a good fit, and, too expensive with too much risk
lordadmiralsugartits
Lol
okbud
Yeah, would be a dumb idea to commit to him when the roster is full of holes (and would still be full of holes if he signed) elsewhere.
thecrocusesareinbloom
Totally agree, GA! I don’t think it’s a good idea for any team to commit to the kind of outlay it’ll take to land Ohtani when there’s legitimate uncertainty about whether you’re signing a superstar two-way player or an eventual DH. Sox have way too many lefty bats as it stands, too, and also at least four men on the roster who’d be better off taking DH reps themselves than they are playing in the field. Wouldn’t be the right move.
okbud
Can’t decide who’s the worst fielder they have, stuck between Yoshida and Devers. The way the market is the Yoshida problem is an easier one to spend to fix.
thecrocusesareinbloom
I think there’s a sneaky argument to be made that the worst culprit is Casas, who plays the most overcomplicated version of first base I’ve ever seen. But I agree that Yoshida bumping around in left is less of an issue than the giant holes at both infield corners, and I really wish they’d either slide Devers to first or make him a committed half-time DH.
Also, I love Raffy, but it still boggles my mind that he’s the member of that homegrown crop of players that Bloom decided to extend. His body is clearly gonna start to break down once he rounds 33 and his talent remains mostly raw rather than studied. No way that contract isn’t underwater for its second half.
KENNETH A LICHTIG
Angels with a 10/520 contract calls for opt out clauses and he is back to being a Free Agent
10centBeerNight
That narrative about him preferring the west coast has always seemed truthful.
bake
Boston being cheap and stupid. There new normal
JoeBrady
You’re actually the only one I ever heard that thought Ohtani to the RS makes sense.
Bruin1012
He actually makes sense to the Red Sox just not at the 50 million a year he’s likely to get with no guarantee he will ever pitch effectively again.
DBH1969
Especially since he will end up being a 42 year old DH.
Trollfree
DBH – I heard a rumor that the commissioner is putting together a blue ribbon task force to look into the possibility of having 3 to 5 DHs on every team. That way Boston wouldn’t look stupid having Devers, Yoshida, Ohtani, Turner and god knows who else they might acquire to play DH this off season!!!
DBH1969
@Troll! Hahaha. Rofl!
Theo still looking out for the Sox , huh?
GASoxFan
Troll, you left Casas off the DH list…
DBH1969
Casas isn’t a gold glove 1b, but isn’t as terrible as people say. They said the same thing about Ortiz. Papi played a decent 1b. Not sur why people hold range against first basemen. Kinda like saying power hitters such because they can’t steal like center fielders.
Just my opinion anyway.
GASoxFan
DBH – a weak 1B is a bigger problem with a wild 3B. The problem becomes amplified, leading to more errors charged on both corners.
A strong 1B can save some errors from the 3B, while also by nature commit fewer of his own.
Ergo, IMO, having a weak defender at both corners doubles the negative performance of each.
DBH1969
Like I said, GA-52. He is terrible over there. He got better at picking Devers throws.
I think Casas is the least of the Sox worries right now.
But we can disagree.
GASoxFan
Oh, I wouldn’t say Casas is at the top of the list of troubles either…
BUT, and these Red Sox have become the Boston Buts these days, not to be confused with the pork roasts of a similar name…
After 30+ million a year Devers isn’t about to be moved off the corner so you really do need to do something more to support the corner infields… a stronger SS was good, Yoshida bad. Only other place to really boost things is IB. So, casas in the DH sort of makes more sense unless he improves a good deal more.
Again, BUT, that’s a concern than can be looked at in 2025 or so, theres plenty of other holes on this squad, unless a good fix it opportunity presents itself
DBH1969
Oh, sorry GA. Didn’t know you meant moving Devers to 1st. In that case, ya, Casas to DH. heck. Casas has Papi Potential as DH. Real student of the game when it comes to hitting.
Bruin1012
No he’s just a likely to sign with the Red Sox as the Mets. The Red Sox have a ton of room under the lux tax and after resetting this last year I see no reason they can’t go over again this year. Masa and Yamamoto were teammates and rumored to be friends I’d say he’s at least as likely to sign with Boston. If Cohen wants to go crazy and offer 10/360 then yeas he will probably be a Met but if it’s close I’ll bet he would rather go to Boston.
RandalGrichuksStubble
This contract seems like trouble.
Bruin1012
Mariners blue I agree with this. I think he wants to be a Mariner and it would not surprise me if he goes to Seattle for slightly less. I don’t believe for one second that the Mariners are out on him all smoke and mirrors. Also remember no state income tax the only west coast destination that can claim that.
Chester Copperpot
You’re out of your mind. The Mariners have NO chance.
Bruin1012
We’ll see
WiffleBall
An all-star hitter and pitcher under the age of 30? He makes sense for more than half the league.
DBH1969
Bake, Are you Ohtani’s agent? If not then you are one of the few people on the planet who thinks 50 mil a year for 12 years is smart for a 30 year old with a history of elbow issues.
GASoxFan
DBH – (and, anyone else who cares) given Ohtani’s elbow issues, plus three data points in that medical science wasnt what it is, players all played hurt on a fairly frequent basis, and, that ‘Babe’ didn’t pitch regularly for a particularly long number of years back in the day….
Do you think the lack of as much rest by taking BP, then swinging in DH-games, not only contribute to Ohtani’s elbow issues by virtue not just of increased stress/wear, but, inhibiting recovery over time and thus, a vortex spiral of increased strain util tears begin to register?
DBH1969
I do. I don’t know why, but players seem to be much stronger now a days but much more fragile. And that includes position players, too.
I do believe that pitchers being forced to throw 98 mph fastballs on a regular basis is a major factor.
Look at hall of fame pitchers. I remember when 93 was like throwing lightning. Most lived around 90, but turned it up for a situational pitch.
Something needs to change, especially if they are going to expand again. Maybe 6 man rotation all around? Fewer regular season games? Something!!!
TjS was rare. But now? Man
GASoxFan
Vintage SP were dominated by guys who relied on pitching. Modern SP are dominated by guys who rely on throwing.
One focused on mechanics and control more than the other, although outliers exist for both in terms of effectiveness and durability.
DBH1969
So true. Big Sexy could still be pitching if he wanted too. At the end he had basically 1 pitch. A fastball that the threw at different speed but pich3d to locations. He’ll, Bill Lee is almost 80 and still tosses the ball!.
Pitchers need to learn to PITCH but then they don’t get paid because analytics say pitchers who.pitch are bad lol
JoeBrady
I don’t know why, but players seem to be much stronger now a days but much more fragile.
=================
The issue is that it is a lot easier to grow muscle than it is to grow tendons, ligaments, cartilage, etc. Theoretically, if you double for muscle mass to throw twice as hard, the attachments probably aren’t double in strength.
DBH1969
Joe, You are probably right!
JackStrawb
@DBH1969 Yes. Just look at the K rates for the pitching greats in the 1960s, 70s, 80s, even into this century—how on Earth did they get outs striking out 6 per 9?
It may also be related to the size of today’s pitchers. A guy who’s 6′-3″ tall and weighs 230 lbs will be putting enormous stress on his arm when using all his force and the drive of his legs to throw a baseball. Body size among MLB pitchers has surely increased more than ligament size and durability in the last 50 years.
DeGrom is the poster child for injury, a guy who has figured out the way to maximize the velocity at which his arm moves through space, with a snap at the end. The human body cannot repeatedly train for and perform this task without frequent injury compared to 40+ years ago.
Still, look at all the pitchers from that era whose pitching declined badly in their late 20s and early 30s, and the pitchers who never made it out of the minors thanks to the workloads then. I wonder how many ‘tired arms’ that never healed were actually torn ligaments that would be cured with TJ surgery?
JackStrawb
@GASoxFan There were far fewer HR threats 50 years ago, and the ball was softer, OFers lighter and more fleet-footed. It was much easier to pitch 50 years ago.
DBH1969
True. Shoeing is 6’4, over 200 lbs. That is he size of of a 1st, 3b, or corner outfield.
Don’t get wrong, I am fine with increased velocity. But not on every pitch. And it seems “offspeed’ today is 95 mph cutter.
DBH1969
Sigh. That is Shohei hah. Auto correct. Meh
stymeedone
I’m going to be the old guy here. Players had to be healthy, before the big money, guaranteed contracts, because they would quickly be replaced, at about the same cost, with no future team obligations. It was play thru it or be replaced. Now, big money, guaranteed contracts have changed the player from a labor cost to an investment. Investments are treated better. An idle investment goes back to being a cost. Small injuries are no longer played thru, as it could become a bigger, longer injury. That would mean no return on investment. Have injuries gone up? There’s no way of knowing. Players are less worried about reporting them, and even encouraged to do so. We can only know reported injuries are up.
stymeedone
You never watched Frank Howard, Willie Horton or Greg Luzinski play the OF. Lighter and more fleet footed!
DBH1969
That is a good point, Stymeedone.
reno24
Truly believe this comes down to the Dodgers and the Giants. Nobody will offer more money than the Giants, but the Dodgers give him the best chance to win now.
Gmen777
I 100% agree with this take. Giants’ desperation for a superstar will make them offer the moon, but the Dodgers will be around their offer and I think their playoff consistency will ultimately make him pick them. Giants only chance imo is if they can sell him on being the face of the franchise (he’d share the spotlight with Betts and Freeman in LA) and convince him they’re gonna be competitive year in and year out. My guess is LA wins with Giants being runner up for the hundredth time the past ten years
Oldguy58
We’ve all known for over a year that Ohtani would be a Dodger. It’s inconceivable that they’ve only had contact with him for the last month. When does MLB investigate the Dodgers for tampering? With Manfred in charge that would be never
abcrazy4dodgers
Clearly the Dodgers should be brought up on tampering charges, as Ohtani mashes at Chavez Ravine, they have an intention on putting a quality product on the field, and anything else that involves Frank McCourt no longer owning the team.
hiflew
Didn’t McCourt sell the team like 10 years ago or something?
abcrazy4dodgers
Correct. and shifting from (or supporting) my sarcastic reply alluding to the Dodgers being consistently ‘kinda good’ since that time.
PierceIn
Man, those McCourt nightmares don’t fade quickly, do they? Or the whole Fox fiasco before that. ::shudder::
Fun fact: the Dodgers could have had Pedro Martinez pitching to Mike Piazza with Adrian Beltré manning third for a decade. Pissed it all away.
DBH1969
I really thought T3xas made more sense. Guess I was wrong!
marinersblue96
There were rumors that the story from Kramer(basically an M’s beat writer) was put out there to quiet any local media talk about Ohtani which seems he and his representatives prefer during the negotiations. The latest story from Ken Rosenthal seems to back that up as well(about their desire to keep everything close to the vest). We will see, I hope Seattle is a player because they desperately need his bat in the lineup.
scissormetimbers
I just don’t see them spending the $570M+ on a single player.
marinersblue96
That hasn’t been their MO, but I never expected the Cano signing either. Ohtani make a lot more sense than that one. The M’s have so much $ it is ridiculous, they were the highest revenue team in 2022 and had 400k more in attendance in 2023.
hiflew
I don’t see anyone spending that much on a DH only guy that will probably never be an effective pitcher again. Don’t forget that even the great Babe Ruth only pitched for 5-6 years before he couldn’t do both anymore. Ohtani will likely not pitch regularly again.
stymeedone
It wasn’t that Ruth couldn’t. The team thought it best to have him hit only. If Ohtani was hitting more HRs on his own than any other TEAM, like Ruth was, pitching would be an after thought for him as well.
Fever Pitch Guy
blueg – Ohtani doesn’t like hitting in Seattle, and his .184/.280/.377 is proof of that.. By far his worst numbers in any MLB park, minimum 50 AB’s.
marinersblue96
And his pitching splits in Seattle are some of his best. Good hitters can adjust and he is elite.
bjhaas1977
I’ll believe it when I see it!
rememberthecoop
We all know it’s going to be the Dodgers or Angels.
marinersblue96
@rememberthecoop Angels?? 0% chance in that. He would of signed an extension already if there was any hope of that.
Halo11Fan
Why would he have signed an extension without testing the market?
Are you saying Aaron Judge didn’t sign with the Yankees last year.
marinersblue96
Yankees and Angels are not very good comps. Yankees traditionally win and make the playoffs. Ohtani doesn’t seem like the type to really want to hit the open market and go for the highest $$, just the best fit. He and his representatives know Anaheim is not it anymore. My guess is the Dodgers or Giants as 1A and 1B.
Halo11Fan
As far as filing an extension, sure they are. He’d be a fool to not test the market.
newpony13
I can tell the MLBTR writers don’t see color because they always link the wrong Chris Young 🙂 love y’all!
Waymann
That one gave me a chuckle too. Imagine trying to sort it out when they were both active players.
dirtbagbaseball427
Let’s get a Dodger-Giant bidding war going!
deepseamonster32
do you guys think the Mariners will sign Ohtani and Yamamoto at the same time? or will each player want their own Seattle press conference?
swagsuperawesomeepiccoolman123
To answer both your questions, both won’t happen. 0% Chance that the mariners get Ohtani or Yamamoto, there is also basically no chance that they get either one of them. The mariners don’t have that kind of money to spend. Their rotation is already set and they aren’t going to sign Ohtani who cant even pitch next season.
monroe_says
The Mariners don’t have that kind of money to spend? LOL You have been well-trained by your billionaire overlords.
swagsuperawesomeepiccoolman123
Even if they have the money we all know they aren’t going to get either. Mariners aren’t going to give a 50mil+ a year contract.
marinersblue96
Nobody thought they were going to give Cano a $240 million contract either.
M’s were the highest revenue team in 2022 and just drew 400K more fans in 2023. They have one of the best TV deals in MLB, own 60% of their RSN, own the TV rights to the Portland Trailblazers and Kraken(revenue they do not have to report). They are literally printing money.
swagsuperawesomeepiccoolman123
And tell me why they haven’t been spending it? The Mariners front office is cheap and a 50+ mil contract would not appeal to them. They even traded Suarez to dump payroll.
marinersblue96
No they traded Suarez because he strikes out too much and declining power wise .
At the end of the year presser they clearly stated they wanted to reduce that. They had 3 of the 4 highest SO hitters in MLB and they were not going to trade JRod, they didn’t extend a QO to Teoscar and the writing was on the wall for Suarez.
swagsuperawesomeepiccoolman123
And that’s why they aren’t going to sign Ohtani or Yamamoto, because their focus is contact bats. 50mil+ for one player when you could get multiple contact bats and fix your lineup at the same cost of 50+mil. The FO isn’t going to spend that money on 1 player
marinersblue96
That is what they have been doing the last few years and it really hasn’t panned out. They need that aircraft carrier in the middle of the lineup help protect Julio and the rest of the team. They are not one bat away they definitely need to add 2 impact bats to the lineup.
swagsuperawesomeepiccoolman123
And who says they’ll change their ways? Knowing them they prob wont
MartialArtisan
By all indications that is correct, but something tells me they’ll break their MO for a shot at Ohtani. I still think the Mariners are a dark horse.
Jaysfansince92
It was a different front office that gave Cano that contract. The largest contract Dipoto has given to a hitter with the Mariners is 1 year 7 million. Not sure I see him giving out 500 million plus for a player whose future may not include pitching.
30 Parks
Dodgers.
Catuli Carl
YES SIR
acoss13
I had Ohtani going with the Red Sox, looks like my odds have dwindled…
Mikenmn
He’s a fascinating player–I wonder if Steve Adams has any idea how the teams would be able to get insurance on his contract? I
Mystery13
I’d offer Shohei a 5 year $250 million contract with either an automatic 6 year extension of $350 if he’s still in the rotation and healthy after the 5th year, or an automatic 5 year extension of $250 if he isn’t still pitching, plus a second 2 year extension after only the 5 year extension if he makes a certain amount of plate appearances in the final year or 2 of original extension.
11 year $600 if he’s still pitching after year 5
10 year 500 if he isn’t still pitching after year 5
12 year $550 if he’s still still playing full time after year 10
DBH1969
mystery. You would really sign a dh that long for 50 mils????
Anthony maresca
Stop with the nonsense and $500-600 million talk as no mlb team will go to those levels along with 10-12 yrs for a player who had 2 TJ surgeries and already 31. People are going to be shocked that his contract falls in the $400-450 range when all said and done.
MysteryWhiteBoy
sure pal
RunDMC
Guy was a 6-bWAR player in ’23 with only the bat. Eovaldi and Taillon are 2 of a few SP with 2 TJ surgeries, but even if he doesn’t SP again, he could play OF or possibly even close. What if played OF and came in as the closer? This is not a one-trick pony and that’s not even including the kind of revenue he’ll bring in via other revenue streams (TV ratings, merch sales, ticket sales, etc.) that he has little if any share of.
GASoxFan
Revenue sources don’t raise your CBT threshold, or, compensate for massive losses in international bonus hard-cap money, or, lost amateur draft slots
DBH1969
I agree they shouldn’t… but somebody will. He was projected at 542 over 12, and that was AFTER the surgery.
Every year we see at least one team do a silly contract. This year will be no different.
GASoxFan
At least this time there’s less likelihood of SD bidding things up with desperate offers….
JerseyShoreScore
Why Ohtani take any of these offers when he can just take a guaranteed contract near or at $600 million?
rememberthecoop
Steve, did the Rangers GM start going to a tanning booth?
taran7
Does he really want to be the only guy on SF? Seriously, what else do they have? He has to be tired of having to carry a team.
Halo11Fan
The Dodgers are the clear favorites. The Angels have a puncher’s chance. And everyone else’s chances are about the equivalent of a bad hitting pitcher hitting a home run on an 0-2 pitch.
It’s been that way for a month.
C Yards Jeff
Chris Young saying Rangers aren’t spending as much this year. Is that code for Ranger’s owner unable to secure a line credit amount increase; whether nixed by his bank, or like in the Padres case, MLB? TV deal issue bigger concern then led on to be?
Clofreesz
Very disappointed as a Rangers fan, but not surprised.
Thank_God_Im_Not_Tim_Dierkes
Why spend more when you already won everything? Plus Mitch is 1/5 of the salary and probably would come back on a two or three year deal.
Clofreesz
What? We’re not supposed to spend more? Every team strives to be better than they are right now. This is how a dynasty can be created.
We aren’t just gonna laze around and be the 2016 Kansas City Royals.
JackStrawb
@Clofrees I think it’s almost obvious at this point, how poorly WS winners fare when they sit tight and just hope to repeat. Winning the World Series almost ALWAYS involves significant luck, especially in the era of 3-4 postseason rounds, so counting on luck again rather than improving your weaknesses is a great way to get knocked out the following year in the ALDS.
The Rangers will be without Montgomery for 2024 unless they sign him. Their team ERA is bad, especially for a winner. The need serious work this offseason.
Catuli Carl
Looking forward to a Dodgers team with Ohtani, Freeman, and Betts that still gets eliminated in the first round of the playoffs.
Gmen777
If they can’t win with those three then the team sold their soul for that 60 game championship
briar-patch thatcher
Well, at least someone on here addressed the future elephant in the room.
mad1
Has to be the dodgers or giants. Why would he consider playing in the crappy city and state of Chicago IL? They are called the not so lovable LOSERS, right??
Thank_God_Im_Not_Tim_Dierkes
Would you seriously sign a long-term deal with the Giants or Dodgers? The Giants haven’t been relevant since Posey retired. The Dodgers are a bunch of old guys with bad or worsening knees. If I’m Ohtani, I’m signing alongside a young star on the West Coast, like he did the first time when he signed with the Angels to play alongside Trout. He has a chance to make the same decision, only with a better farm system, pitching staff, and young core to support him in Seattle. Jerry hasn’t been quiet all winter for nothing. Trading for Urias (garbage), and moving salary (Geno) isn’t a real move for Jerry, it’s just housekeeping.
Cincyfan85
As long as he’s not on the Cubs, Mets, or Dodgers, I’ll root for him.
Rick Wilkins
The assumption that Ohtani wants to stay on the west coast is a lazy take. Everyone always assumes every Asian player wants to be on the west coast because of the shorter travel distance. He owns property in the NW part of the country, so he’ll always have a west coast base if he wants one. He said he wants to go to the right organization. Now if that’s a ploy to keep more suitors in the game, I wouldn’t rule that out, but this guy is headed towards a net worth that starts with a B. I’m pretty sure he’s open to playing in the Midwest or the East. Truth is, for all the speculation, there are probably only 4-5 realistic teams here anyway. LAD and Chicago are definitely in the game. The SFG could be a player there, but I don’t love the makeup of that team. Who knows how he’ll feel about it. I’ll throw in Atlanta because they are decisive if they are after something. They can spend for him if they want, and they are a ridiculously attractive landing spot. My dark horse would be Toronto. Money to spend. Burgeoning Japanese population. Would he wanna be in the ultra-competitive AL East for the next 10-11 years? End of the day, I personally think he’s going to one of these guys, and the number will start with a 6.
Seamaholic
Braves are at their max budget. They are not owned by a billionaire who can do whatever he wants. They’re owned by a corporation that’s not even based in Georgia, which cares only about the bottom line and will under no circumstances go into the red. Plus Acuna and Albies are gonna need huge extensions soon, and Fried and others. No chance.
Rick Wilkins
I threw them in there because of how aggressive they’ve been recently, not to mention their success. You’re probably correct about their budget, but Acuna and Albies are both signed long term already…..at very team friendly money.
JackStrawb
And if the Braves sign Yamamoto or Montgomery, it should surprise no one. They’re not extending Acuna. They’re not extending Albies. They have them for another 5 and 4 years, respectively, through their age 31 seasons. The Braves let Freeman walk after his age 31 season. With Acuna, especially, you think the Braves got where they are by signing guys for $250m+ for their decline phases??
How is it you don’t even know your own team?
Ma4170
Definitely not extending Albies thats for sure. Too up and down and his skills wont age well.
Halo11Fan
Not so lazy. He chose the West Coast 6 years ago and expressed his desire to play on the West Coast.
It doesn’t mean he’ll sign on the West Coast, but to think it’s lazy is ignorant.
Rick Wilkins
6 years ago, he wasn’t what he is now. Playing with Mike Trout on the west coast, probably was pretty enticing…..6 years ago. He just went to the wrong organization. I’m a lot of things, but ignorant isn’t one of them my friend. Now if you feel personally slighted by my “lazy take” comment, that was in no way directed at you, then I suggest you look in the mirror a bit. I know you’re passionate about your squad. I ain’t mad at ya.
Halo11Fan
Players have preferences.
Six years ago every team wanted Ohtani. This year it’s just a handful of teams that can afford him. He had 3o choices six years ago, 15 if ypu only include AL teams. This time the choices are limited. The biggest difference is NL teams are now a viable option.
It’s not lazy to believe the West Coast has a huge advantage.
Thank_God_Im_Not_Tim_Dierkes
Or believing he wants to live in Canada with all their current political issues, the extra 10 hours of travel, additional residential VISAs, a team with a core that is already getting too expensive and can’t be held together, Other than that, the east coast is a bunch of young teams without a desire to spend because they need to extend their own players (Rays & Orioles), underperforming teams that already are at the luxury cap (Yankees and Red Sox), young teams that could be rebuilding until he’s out of his prime (Marlins and Nationals), a Phillies team of DHs that is already over the cap, a bunch of middling AL & NL Central teams that can’t even afford to sign their own players to long-term deals. Yeah, definite bias to think he’d travel 10 hours more round trip and chase the money when he already makes probably $50M/year in endorsements and other things. He’s literally all over Tokyo marketing every product imaginable. It’s not the money. While you like to say Atlanta, but they are already over the cap because of stupid extensions, plus they still have to try and find the money to extend Acuna in a couple years, and what about the Cubs?! You think Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, Ian, Happ, Christopher Morel, and Seiya Suzuki are the core of players that will make him believe in championships?! The only way to see him in the Central or East is through biased thinking that lacks any consideration for him the person and what he wants, as well as his earning potential off the field.
stymeedone
Canada? With all its political issues? I keep forgetting that the USA runs like clockwork. Smooth sailing always with everyone in harmony. Ohtani probably chuckles at both. Do you ever hear of political problems in Japan?
jaysfansince1977
Where do you get an extra 10 hours of travel??? 14 hour flight from Toronto to Japan and 12 hour flight from LA to Japan!!! those are commercial flights pretty sure he probably has his own jet by now!!!
Anthony maresca
$600 million ok im glad you’re not a baseball owner cause it simply not going to be close. The Dodgers knowing he badly wants to be Dodger are known to never over pay against themselves offer him both opportunity to play in playoffs annually plus be highest paid player so ill stick with 10/475
Rsox
The problem with any team trying to sign Ohtani is gauging just how much you are willing to pay for a DH. Ohtani wants to be paid as a “two-way” player and that’s fine but 6 seasons in and he already basically didn’t pitch in 2 of them with a third misses season on the mound next season. Realistically no team can sign him to a 10+ year contract and realistically expect him to pitch half in half of those years.
I’m hapoy the Sox are pivoting away. They need pitching far more than another DH and you won’t get that from Ohtani next season, and not really sure how much of it you’ll get after that
Old York
@Rsox
Well, if no one signs him, he goes back to Japan amd pitch for a year and reset his value. But I’m sure some MLB team will sign him. I think he’s worth $700M+ when you add in all the revenue he brings to the team and the Japanese market.
GASoxFan
OY –
Flip side to that, how large a percentage of your CBT do you want to sink on one player who, even if he hits, it’s only as a DH maybe 3-4 games a week since he doesn’t really DH after hit start.
Then, that same guy who you want to slot into your rotation, it needs to be a SIX man rotation as he refuses to pitch on less than 6 days rest. Otherwise, you’ll KILL your bullpen by throwing a BP game once every time through the rotation.
Add that into all the other question marks.
Now, ask yourself, if you think the revenue offsets the CBT penalties, how much is the LOST intl signing bonus hard cap going to hurt your pipeline?
After taking that hit, how much is losing TEN slots on your draft pick year in and out going to hurt?
You can’t just pay his bloated contract out of hoped for economic benefit, theres other costs too with such a mega deal.
chalk73
Yes he does DH after he starts, and he even DHs after he comes out of the games that he pitches.
JerseyShoreScore
Fake News Post here…
Ma4170
@GA – took the words out of my mouth. Some of that additional revenue will be eaten up by CBT penalties and additional sp needed, where even borderline sp are getting $10M+ now..
Seamaholic
Gotta agree with this. There’s no guarantee or even anything close to one that he will ever be a starting pitcher again. This is his second major arm surgery, and he turns 30 this year. Teams that have loads of options for spending their money, like the Dodgers, are not gonna be the high bidders here. Sure they’ll take him for a “normal” mega-contract, but they ain’t gonna set any records. That’s why I think it’s Cubs or Angels. Both are motivated, desperate for a star and a shot at a title, and cash-rich.
Trollfree
Seamaholic – That’s a very silly take on Ohtani. He’ll pitch again and depending on the surgeon and the ligament(s) used he could be as good or better than before. He may not get longevity out of the second ligament but 3 to 5 years would make him extremely valuable to ANY team willing to pay $50MM for a unicorn who is an elite hitter and an elite pitcher.
Ohtani has already had the two if not three of the greatest seasons in history. If he remains a top hitter and is a top pitcher for 5 more years he’ll be the best player in history when he ends his career. He’s a big guy who hits for power and has tremendous speed. He’s a student of the game so he plays smart in everything he does. He’s an outstanding pitcher. Now compare him to the greatest baseball player ever, Babe Ruth, and he’s a comparable hitter and a better pitcher. Ruth won’t have pitched as long as Ohtani allowing Ohtani to surpass Ruth in combined statistics for their careers.
What team making 1/3 of Billion a year wouldn’t spend $40 to $55MM per year to have the greatest player of all time? His OPS+ at 23 was 151 and that’s now his third highest after 5 full seasons. Boston has nobody on their team that is close to as good a hitter as Ohtani. The Devers deal hurts that much more right now because Ohtani’s $50MM could be 60% funded by the money going to Devers to put up a 126 OPS+.
I see no reason for Ohtani to want to go to Boston but Boston certainly should be doing everything possible to bring Ohtani to Boston. He would be the best player immediately, he would be a great addition to the clubhouse because Cora could no longer emphasize Latin players over Japanese players and other players with his inherent biases. Ohtani would fill the seats at the ball park since Bloom drained them. He would improve the teams international appeal and merchandising.
There is nothing to not love about Ohtani. If Boston makes $300MM in profits per year and chooses to make only $250MM in profits to have Ohtani is it worth it? Hell yes!!!! The biggest downside of getting Ohtani is Devers. Trade Devers for Arenado and you now have great defense and ONE DH Ohtani. Then move Yoshida and let the young outfield develop to keep costs reasonable. If Ohtani is in Boston, then MAYBE just MAYBE Yamamoto might want to come to Boston but I think a lot would depend on moving Devers off 3B.
FYI the concept of cash rich is meaningless in baseball. It’s all about the Luxury Tax when it comes to payroll not cash.
PierceIn
Wouldn’t that description of the Cubs & Angels also apply in spades to the Giants? I feel like they _need_ him in a way no other team does. I’m a Dodgers fan living in San Francisco and my Jints fan friends are desperate for star power, excitement, and grandeur.
Front office dude
The Red Sox and Mets are not pivoting away I don’t know where they get this information lol. From what I’ve seen, both those teams are very much in the mix although they both prefer to see what happens with YY first
Halo11Fan
He’s a DH next year. Worst case scenario he turns into a RF, and he’ll be one of the best RF in baseball.
Thank_God_Im_Not_Tim_Dierkes
Not really, he’ll cover his salary in team endorsements, ticket sales, and merchandise with his name and number all over it. How many people are going to lineup for the first Ohtani bobblehead night?! 5,000 extra fans at $20/ticket on average?! That’s $100K extra at the gate on a Tuesday night, plus the parking, the concessions, and all the merchandise that will be sold that night at the team store because of those extra fans could make it closer to $500K
Anthony maresca
Bingo! Posters on this board don’t understand this concept and mlb teams know this. Ohtani or Soto not hitting $500 mullion anytime soon.
Old York
I’m still holding out on Seattle signing him even though they are shying away from it.
Thank_God_Im_Not_Tim_Dierkes
I think they are playing opossum, not shying away. Read below, I think it’s more than a little bit possible, he signs with Seattle and everyone gets unreasonably surprised by what should be the most obvious choice.
Given my choices, I wouldn’t want anything to do with the Mets or Padres cultures, the Giants and Dodgers are always shopping for “vets” in their 30s, all the teams in the Central and East would be hours longer each way, when I already need to spend half-a-day to fly to Japan from Seattle or Los Angeles, let alone Boston or Chicago. The proximity to Driveline, the city, the fans, the chance to win annually, the depth of the farm system, the best player under-25 years old in Julio Rodriguez is under contract at least until I retire, and they have a huge asian population, while still offering anonymity that I couldn’t get in bigger cities.
Maybe Ohtani leaves $100M on table signing with Seattle, but could you imagine the endorsements that he would have in Japan already, in Seattle after signing, alongside Julio as two of the biggest faces in the sport, and all while maintaining the shortest flight to Japan that’s possible from the continental U.S. Just look at what Julio and Ohtani are endorsing individually and then think of the marketing potential for the Mariners, if they had both players. That’s the angle for the Mariners and it explains them raising ticket prices and saying they feel good about their LH hitting, what LH hitting? Kelenic? Crawford? Raleigh who’s a switch-hitter? Rojas? Canzone? Yeah, the only way I’m shopping for RH hitters, is if I know I’m signing Ohtani or Bellinger in free agency.
Old York
@Thank_God_We_Arent_Angels
Honestly, I could see Ohtani taking a short-term deal, say 3 or 4 years with an opt-out after year 2 or something. This is Seattle’s window for contention and it would be a good fit for him.
troutfishing
When his career is over, he will have walked away with at least 1 billion dollars before taxes and donations. His MLB salary is part of it, but I am sure he will have investments and business alongside all of his sponsorships and advertising deals.
You have to think he has vision of what that future looks like in certain environments and cities…. not just “whoever can throw him the most money”.
My take is that he cares about his legacy… As a player, leader, and as someone who can help develop channels for Japanese ballplayers to have more resources and opportunities… anywhere they want to play.
Personally, I hope he stays in Anaheim. I love taking my kids to go watch him play with the Halos. They have his jersey, shirt, and even my wife loves to come out to the games. I am super stoked his presence helped with that.
Rick Wilkins
Well put. I’m sure he is far more of a big picture guy than people give him credit for.
steven st croix
” SNY’s Andy Martino reports that Ohtani’s countryman, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, is currently the Mets’ primary focus.” Martino has no clue what he is taking about. Half the time he is just making this stuff up
radhippo
He’s going back to the Angels who know how to utilize him, along with Yamamoto!
SanDiegoSuperDissapointingPadres
Dodgers will go with the safer bet and sign Snell. Giants will sign Ohtani and he’ll end up getting TJ surgery 3/4th month of the season. A Halo blessing.
fathead0507
If the Jays splurge for Ohtani they won’t be able to extend Bichette and Vlad.. then Ohtani will just be on the Canadian Angels essentially
LordD99
Reading the article today on his agent, I can’t see anyway he’d mesh easily on the east coast. He’s staying out west.
baseballpun
Rockies.
howlcipher
Give him a 1 year opt out to heal his arm while crushing balls at Coors might make a little sense I suppose. He’d most likely not be on winning team, but you never know if KB pulls it together for 3/4 of the year at least.
Pedro Cerrano's Voodoo
Bad fit for the Sox, I’m glad. They already have too many future DH’s. He doesn’t fill any of their present needs i.e. starting pitching, 2nd base, RH outfield.
Joe S
Anyone bidding on Ohtani has to realize that he is going to Dodgers. All these teams are doing is driving up the cost to the Dodgers. 10 year 532 million is what LA will be committing to for Ohtani.
Anthony maresca
$53 million per is NOT happening.
Cohn Joppolella
A’s are the true dark horse.
Ketch
Darker than the Pirates?
DBH1969
That horse isn’t dark, it’s mummified. No way A’s are in on him. That dead hors3 will fly before the A’s shell out 50 mils! Heck, it will get up and dance before they do 40!
mindseye15
If he wants to win consistently and get paid(which he will get paid massively no matter where it is)the Dodgers are the clear choice here. The weather is also better in Cali. than say Chicago. Seems like the Dodgers are it…but hopin I’m wrong and he surprises and picks the Cubs!!
Zombie Bukowski
And lose in the division series to a wild card team….the Dodgers are the clear choice
JerseyShoreScore
I thought the Dodgers made the World Series three of the last seven seasons, and the NLCS five of the last eight seasons? I am sure Ohtani believes he can help impact the net outcomes in a positive fashion.
Mr. Pessimist
Who in the world says the Jays can’t extend Bichette and Vlad Jr.? This isn’t the NHL, there’s no salary cap! However, I’d be open to trading Vlad Jr. due to his lesser athleticism compared to Bichette. But it makes absolutely zero sense to sign Ohtani and then unload their best two players. If that is the plan then idiot Atkins and Shapiro shouldn’t have traded away their most consistent and clutch hitters last winter in Hernandez and Gurriel for next to nothing!
DroppedThirdStrike
I think most offers will come in the $425-500M range, and the Giants will overpay to get him at somewhere near $530-560M. And the PA will push him hard to take it.
petefrompp
Bad news for the Giants – Mets focus is now on Yamamoto – so we can pretty safely assume the Giants will finish second to the Dodgers on Ohtani , and second to the Mets on Yamamoto. We keep our strategy of just looking like we’re trying……..
foppert1
The Giants have been courting Yamamoto for a number of years. I think that qualifies as trying.
Gerry Moore
I hope Ohtani signs with whatever team he thinks he has a better chance of winning with
John Bird
Only reason I could see him signing with the Giants is if he has his heart set on breaking Bonds’ record for intentional walks..
Digdugler
Rogers is wealthier than Steve Cohen… 🙁
bigeasye
He’s going to stay on the west coast. East coast games would be unwatchable in Japan which is a large part of his non-skill appeal. My guess is Giants 50%, dodgers 30%, angels 20%
JoeBrady
He’s going to stay on the west coast. East coast games would be unwatchable in Japan
================================
Check the math on that. That doesn’t sound correct. I watched Dice-K at about 7-8 AM in Osaka. I believe that west coast games would be in the middle of the work day in Japan.
holycow16
Ohtani wants to be a “CHAMPION”, not a regular season Champ. No Dodger.
Go Cubs!!
swagsuperawesomeepiccoolman123
And tell me why they haven’t been spending it? The Mariners front office is cheap and a 50+ mil contract would not appeal to them. They even traded Suarez to dump payroll.
JoeBrady
The Mariners front office is cheap
=============================
There is no such thing as a “cheap” front office. The owner supplies the budget, not the FO.
MartialArtisan
The Mariners FO and ownership are cheap. Hundreds of millions of reasons they’re not in on Ohtani. But when Ohtani first came over it was reported they were on a strict budget that was maxed out, but they tapped into some special ‘reserve” in their pursuit of him. They went after him hard and finished second to the Angels. As cheap as they are, it makes me wonder if they’re not doing the same thing now?
JoeBrady
The Mariners FO and ownership are cheap.
=======================
There is almost a 0% chance of that being true. GMs spend in accordance with the owner’s wishes. If the owner okays a $150M budget and you only spend $100M, you are likely fired.
If the owner authorizes $150M, and you spend $200M, you are likely fired AND sued.
MartialArtisan
Yeah I understand that. Dipoto’s not doing anything without Stanton’s approval. And Stanton is notoriously cheap. I’m just saying Stanton might be willing to make an exception in the budget specifically for Ohtani as (it was reported) he did last time.
JeffMann
Perhaps these teams have seen his physical reports and were scared away.
Trollfree
Joe – That’s not really the way things work. Yes, owners decide if a transaction will happen or not but the process for requesting funding for players starts with the choices of the GM. Bloom in Boston chose to ask for lots of cheap guys and went over the CAP. That would suggest to some that the owners were cheap but that’s the farthest thing from the truth. They funded what Bloom, DD, Cheringto and Theo asked for with one caveat. They wanted home town discounts from players. That’s not the same as capping the money and it’s not quite cheap because they did it to test loyalty but in the end it is the biggest problem Boston fans have with the owners.
I don’t know the situation in Seattle as well but I guarantee the process of the GM assembling transactions and presenting them to the board for approval is the same. So you have to ask the question – Did the GM create the problem like Bloom did by not requesting deals with big money players or did the owners refuse everything the GM presented? Maybe it’s a little of both, who knows.
So once again, budgeting like you have described is presented by the GM to the board not handed down to the GM. The board may have timing issues with funding or they may simply choose not to fund the requested amount. There is not a case like you described where the GM spends more than what the owners authorized. It simply doesn’t work that way. They AUTHORIZE every transaction. If they budget and the GM comes to them asking for more than the budget and explaining why it’s needed they might spend more than the agreed upon budget so the money is authorized BUT the owners after the fact reaction to why the GM did not do a better job predicting what he needed prior to the season could get him fired or as in Cashman’s case it could simply be an acceptable mistake. All owners behave differently and it can’t be any clearer than in the case of a bad GM like Cashman never losing his job despite not being successful whereas DD was successful and lost his job. Loyalty, family, personality are all part of why a GM is let go whether they are successful or not.
Persi W
Thank god. As an Angels fan, I accept that Ohtani will likely be in a different uniform next year and I will likely still root for him, but I could not stomach him playing for either the Rangers or Astros.
Mickey Solis
If Ohtani is in fact the sellout we think he is like everyone else expect him to land with the team that needs him the least but feels they DESERVE him
the most – the pathetic buy-everyone LA Dodgers. Why stop with Betts and Freeman and guys like Bauer and Trea and Scherzer when you can just keep piling on because you have the most money?
Thank_God_Im_Not_Tim_Dierkes
If I’m using logic and trust the rumors about who is out, my thinking is you have to eliminate all the East teams in both leagues… In the NL East, the culture/losing (Marlins & Nationals), positional need/luxury tax (Phillies), cost/luxury tax (Braves), the Mets (said they’re out). In the AL East, the Rays and Orioles (cost/needs), Blue Jays (are trying to trade stars), the Yankees and the Red Sox (said they’re out). Realistically, you have to be a homer on the east coast to think there’s a chance in H-E-Double Hockey Sticks he’s adding 10+ hours on his commute home to Japan for the next decade.
The Central teams all tend to be smaller cities with smaller payrolls (Guardians, Twins, Royals, Pirates, Reds), rebuilding/lack a core (Tigers, White Sox, Cubs, Brewers), or have too many big contracts/stars for their size (Cardinals).
That leaves the West teams, which is what makes the most sense. There are teams who are out due to culture/losing (Angels, Rockies, Athletics), there is the teams that have a DH (Astros), teams that can’t afford the contract (D-backs & Athletics-so pathetic I listed the A’s twice), teams that are said to be out (Rangers, Giants), trying to reduce payroll (Padres), which leaves two teams…
The Dodgers and the Mariners…. I know there was a report that was published about the Mariners being out on Ohtani, but I don’t believe that and here’s why…. The guy said industry sources… Knowing that you can’t talk about Ohtani or risk the negotiations, I highly doubt the beat writer (a newer one at that) got behind closed doors. What supports this theory that they’re still in on Ohtani. Normally Dipoto is so vocal about his moves he has a weekly show where he candidly talks about his process, but he’s been unusually tight-lipped about everything this offseason. He loves Ohtani and was willing to do anything to get him 6 years ago, same player, more proven, same GM, still in love with the player, and they’ve been slashing payroll for years.
Most recently a USA Today report came out that Yamamoto has two requirements for the team he signs with this offseason. The first is they have to be ready to contend immediately and they have to have a Japanese player on the team. Considering the Mariners have been considered to be highly involved in these negotiations, it begs the question, who would that Japanese player be on the roster?! The answer is, we don’t have one, unless we sign one in free agency.
I know people are going to say there’s no way Shohei goes to Seattle, but if we believe it’s true that the Mariners are out on Ohtani, then why is it taking so long for the Dodgers to strike a deal with literally no other legitimate suitors? Early in the offseason, it was reported they were interested in re-uniting with Martinez, as they felt Ohtani was a luxury. I’m also not sure they want all of their best players under long-term deals to be on the wrong side of 30 especially when they’re already one of the oldest rosters in the league (Betts, Freeman, C W. Smith, Muncy, Heyward, etc.)
The reasons for the Mariners to sign Ohtani is he raises the floor of the team, he fills a huge hole after they let a productive, albeit inconsistent option walk over pennies (Mike Ford wasn’t tendered over $1.4M), they’re bargain bin shopping to fill the other holes, like they are saving money for something big, the translator who is friends with Ohtani is a M’s fan, Shohei does work at Driveline in Seattle, which would be convenient, he loves the city, the fans, and he got a special ovation at the All-Star game, the city offers anonymity that Los Angeles doesn’t, and most importantly, they can trade from their rotation knowing that they only have to patch a spot for 3-4 months until Ray is healthy, then they can add Ohtani into the 2025 rotation alongside Yamamoto, where both players would be better rested and are used to pitching once a week.
If anyone other than Seattle or Los Angeles signs Ohtani it would be a miracle at this point, and I think there’s mutual interest between Seattle and Shohei, where he gets to trying pairing himself with the new Mike Trout (Julio), while actually having a solid pitching staff, a young core, and impact prospects on the way. While people may think it’s ridiculous to think the Mariners could sign Ohtani AND Yamamoto, I could see them doing two 10-year deals with Shohei getting $400M ($40M/year) and Yoshi getting $200M ($20M/year). That’s $60M for a team with a payroll around $125M and who supposedly profited over $80+ million last year, not including their TV station revenue and they dumped some other contracts, while this allows them to trade for controllable bats.
GASoxFan
FWIW, whether you believe it or not, ‘Motos camp put out a clarification that it was a translation error that made ‘willing to play with another Japanese player’ come out as ‘must play with another Japanese player.’
That’s because there is a practice among many top Japanese stars of preferring to be the only Japanese player on their mlb team.
You could argue the ‘clarification’ came after the delay because it was damage control for limiting the market. But take that into consideration.
sacball
who said the Giants are out?
Lefty_Orioles_Fan
Hey, the length of this comment alone is worth 500 million
PierceIn
As a Dodgers fan living in San Francisco, I hope like hell he ends up in blue, but the Giants *need* him more than any other team IMO. And I have to admit ‘Shohei by the Bay’ would be great for The Rivalry, great for the city, and good for baseball in general.
Cooperdooper7
I don’t know if this has been said….. but personally I think that Ohtani should sign a 1 year deal to the team that intrigues him and then go back on the Market next winter when he has the pitching back in the equation.
PutPeteinthehall
The idea is nice however what happens if the elbow never heals? Now he cannot bat effectively as well. He takes say 35 m from a team for 2024 and then cannot get another contract due to the elbow. When you have half a billion for the taking you take it now.
JerseyShoreScore
Why do that if you are Ohtani and already have a half billion plus in guarantees on the table? Especially when it has been said that he just wants to settle in and find a long term team to win with…
GSWfanklay
What if Ohtani did sign in Sf and they did sign Yarmoto and maybe a champmen or Belly. Would a hole rip through the space time continuum?
GASoxFan
No, but the alarm clock would eventually ring
Whyme
Lol
DBH1969
Hahaha!
Jeremy320
Rangers are printing money in that Dallas market.
sfjackcoke
I think in the end he lands in LA with the Dodgers however the Giants and to a lesser extent the Cubs will dry up the contract. Dodgers will be in the trade market as well.
I think the Giants pivot and over pay on both Bellinger and Yamamoto. I think ultimately the Mets are the wild card on Yamamoto, obviously if Cohen wants him…
Trollfree
The Rangers should get Ohtani if winning is important. They have deGrom for 5 years, they have Scherzer next year, they have Eovaldi, Dunning and so much more pitching that not having Ohtani pitch in 2024 is insignificant. His bat at DH makes a top performing offense light years better than all others. His base stealing makes the offense even better.
The Rangers have the strongest roster in baseball and if he wants to win he needs to realize where his best chance of winning is. He would also love to play for Bochy and pitch for Maddux. Texas has no sales tax on 81 of his games each year. Texas has an indoor state of the art stadium and fans who have waited a long time to see a championship. Like the good old days when the Cowboys won frequently, the fans back their teams very well.
The Dodgers are glitz and glamor and continued success making the playoffs and yet very little success winning rings. The fluke in 2020 thanks to the 60 game season has an asterisk next to it. So it’s been 45 years since they have won a legitimate ring. That’s a long time considering how often they make the playoffs. Some teams just don’t have what it takes to win the big one, LAD fits the bill.
Same can be said for the Yankees. Their bloated payroll is all about big names who don’t perform. Ohtani wouldn’t fit in there. Toronto would be a cultural choice for Ohtani. I don’t know him well enough to guess if that’s a possibility. It’s got a great core team but they have yet to live up to expectations.
Going to the Cubs would be interesting. His hitting numbers would improve and his pitching numbers would fall off a bit but boy would it be fun to see him a few over the scoreboard in right field or off the scoreboard in center field or on to the roofs across the street in left field. The problem with Chicago is the team is considered lovable losers for a century. Hard to imagine him wanting to play there to establish himself as the greatest player ever.
SF is interesting. They got Bonds when he moved and he was the greatest hitter of his generation despite the dimensions of their ballpark.
Nobody else seems to fit the bill for an Ohtani being added to their payroll.
He’s a unicorn and is worth the $50MM to $60MM for his services. He’s like adding two players beginning in 2025. He’s the face of baseball despite MLB marketing groups trying to push minor stars into the face of baseball title like Tatis, Acuna, Soto and most recently Julio Rodriguez. Ohtani has a clean image and is more talented than anyone else. Whoever gets him will be the center of the baseball world.
Mercenary.Freddie.Freeman
Acuna Jr is a superstar not a minor star. Any team would want him especially at his current salary.
Trollfree
Mercenary – If you read that whole discussion and find the Acuna statement the only one worth commenting on then you missed the point of the discussion.
Acuna is a star hitter and fielder. Ohtani is a far more talented player because he matches Acuna’s hitting and he’s a premiere player. Ohtani’s talent dwarfs Acuna and most people recognize that. That’s not to say Acuna doesn’t have the second most talent in baseball, it simply says he’s not close to be THE MOST TALENTED in baseball. If you haven’t picked up on the MLB’s constant in your face marketing programs they always take the hot hitter and shove them in the public’s face. It started with Trout who was the greatest player in baseball for years, then guys like Soto, Acuna and Tatis started showing up in advertisements rather than proven stars like Harper, Freeman, Mookie and others. They wanted to appeal to young fans with a new face of baseball. All of their choices were top tier energetic players which is what the marketing department perceives will draw the most fans to the game. Ohtani isn’t Latin, he isn’t flamboyant and he doesn’t have the flashiness of the mini-stars that are selected to represent the game. They are trying to compete with Basketball and Football so the players need to fit a similar image to those in the other sports. Ohtani is simply the best hands down and it’s unfortunate the younger generation needs shiny things to gain their interest.
So yes, Acuna Jr. is a shiny thing who may or may not be the featured guy by MLB next year if Julio Rodriguez, Elly de la Cruz or some other shining thing becomes more shiny than Acuna. After all, Acuna’s 2023 168 OPS+ was great but his 2022 OPS+ of 112 made him not the shiny thing that year. Tatis has done similar peaks and valleys but Acuna has done fewer. Julio Rodriguez is 3 years younger but dropped from an OPS+ of 147 at age 21 to 128 at 22. He may be a one time wonder at being the shiny thing or he may put up a 185 OPS+ in 2024 and regain the “most shiny thing” title. Meanwhile, Ohtani will put up big hitting numbers in 2024 and recover from TJ surgery. FYI… the mild mannered superman put up MLB top 184 OPS+ in 2023, 144 in 2022 and 157 in 2021. That blows away all the minor stars listed above AND it does not count his pitching. Acuna will always be a minor star compared to Ohtani.,
Poolhalljunkies
So much for the ohtani sweepstakes being confidential
dasit
new york media insanity aside, that yankee stadium short porch would be very tempting if i were ohtani. sadly the franchise now presents as dysfunctional and directionless
GSWfanklay
I for one love San Francisco it’s a great place. The whole Bay Area
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
Red Sox should stay away. We need a pitcher, not a DH. He won’t pitch this year and he’s reached his 30’s. He’s bound to decline midway through any big deal.
JackStrawb
Wrt the Mets—good.
He’s not a fit there given all the other holes in the roster. It would have been just like the foolishness in trading a superb shortstop for Lindor then signing Lindor for $341 million when the guy who’s 90% as good is playing for $700k.
If Ohtani’s aiming for $50 million a year, that’s two star OFers the Mets desperately need. Or two superb starting pitchers they desperately need. He’s just not what they need at all—he’s a great hitter who may or may not be more than a #4-5 starter again.
misterfigs
Well I’m thrilled to read this. Undoubtedly means the way is clear for Ohtani to sign in Pittsburgh
dasit
that would be an amazing troll move
ohtani signs with the pirates for league minimum, also plays goalie for the penguins and punts for the steelers
misterfigs
And you know, all 3 teams could use him, too
njbirdsfan
Seeing what he already did to the Angels, no thanks.
This one belongs to the Reds
If the Reds signed him with their 50 million or so of payroll space, I’d be watching from upstairs due to my heart attack.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
I think the Yankees still sign him as they try to sign every superstar
sacball
I’d be shocked if Ohtani wanted to play under the microscope/scrutiny of that media…
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
I wouldn’t be. He’s thrived when attention comes his way.
butch779988
None of these idiot writers know anything that’s going on
RyÅnWKrol
Bet you anything, there’s only a few teams that even have a chance and he probably goes back to the Angels because they’re one of the only teams willing to meet his demands as a two way player and as a franchise that isn’t center stage in a big market, but more off to the side low key big market. There’s a reason he signed with the Angels in the first place.
Trollfree
RyAnWKrol – Yes. Ohtani signed with the Angels to play with Trout. He’s done that and is now free to choose for a new reason or as you suggest he may return to the Angels to continue to play with Trout.
If he wants to be the greatest of all time, he should go to Texas and win many rings with their talented team. Going to LAD only assures him of making the playoffs. Going to Texas gives him a chance to compete with Jordan and Brady for total rings in a career.
PutPeteinthehall
Texas not giving him 50m a season. Simple as that. Believe Dodgers are way under luxury tax hit level. Not by accident. Plans were laid long ago.
Trollfree
RJNarvick – Why is it as simple as that about Texas? The contract can be structured in MANY ways. Scherzer drops off in 2025 when Ohtani can pitch again. They can take a one year hit and go over the CAP and then settle back down under the cap in 2025.
The Dodgers have only 3 quality hitters and their pitching is suspect. One great hitter added to Mookie and Freddie won’t put them over the top to win a ring. Texas already has lots of young stars and a payroll that is managable after 2024 if they add him. He steps into Scherzer spot in the rotation and the Rangers go after their 2nd or possibly 3rd ring if they win in 2024.
Does Ohtani hit you as a guy who fits in with the glitz of Hollywood? I can’t see him being thrilled to be in the media blitz they would have in LA.
Yes. Friedman once again thinks he has outsmarted everyone but based on his historic results, that won’t lead to a ring. The shortened season and Mookie being stolen from Boston thanks to Bloom accounts for his ONE ring and it has an asterisk next to it.
The LAD roster looks like crap compared to the Ranger roster. It’s the modern version of Spahn, Sain and Rain only it’s Betts, Freeman and Rain because there isn’t another noteworthy hitter on the team!!! hahaha
Are you one of those people who think they will add both Ohtani and Trout?
jpgiii85
Everyone knew the redsox weren’t serious contenders for Ohtani. Sox ownership is terrible. SELL. THE. TEAM.
JoeBrady
jpgiii8516 hours ago
Everyone knew the redsox weren’t serious contenders for Ohtani.
========================
Of course not. We don’t need a DH.
Ebouch25
I’m glad the Sox decided to shift away. Giving a player extra money to pitch for the short term would not be money well spent. He’s going to be a full time batter much longer than a two way player.
Trollfree
Ebouch25 – Why is your crystal ball so negative? Ohtani will have a ligament replaced and that ligament could last 5 to 10 years throwing as hard as he does. He may not pitch the exact same number of years as he hits but he’s still the best player on the planet by far.
Boston just spent four years with a tool for a GM who thought 10 players at $5MM a piece would win him a ring rather than 2 players at $25MM a piece. Well, Ohtani is that 2 players wrapped into one. I would take Ohtani over 10 guys costing $5MM a piece because those guys can’t win championships and he can give talent around him. Thanks to DD and maybe Bloom there are young OFers who cost so little paying for Ohtani is possible. The infield needs a 3B and a 2B and Devers at DH. This team with two pitchers and Ohtani would be great for a very long time.
Worst case, the owners only make $300MM rather than $350MM. Is anyone worried that owners won’t make enough money if they have Ohtani? That’s silly.
JoeBrady
Make it easy on yourself. Tell us the names of successful SPs who have had two TJS. I’ll start it for you:
Eovaldi
Sabermetrix
Why are the Blue Jays the dark horse? Their owner is worth 22 Billion dollars CAD and have shown they are willing to spend past the cap?
Wikipedia
Net income: CA$1.680 billion (Fiscal Year Ended 31 December 2022)
Total assets: CA$55.655 billion (Fiscal Year Ended 31 December 2022)
Operating income: CA$1.195 billion (Fiscal Year Ended 31 December 2022)
Owner: Rogers family, through Rogers Control Trust (administered by Scotiabank)
hopper15
I’d be very surprised if he leaves the west coast for Toronto
Trollfree
hopper15 – Would you be shocked to find out he didn’t pick a west coast team originally for being on the west coast? A guy named Trout played for the Angels and that was who he wanted to play with.
What if he want’s to play with Acuna, Judge, Bichette/Guerrero, Devers or Seager/Semien ? Not one plays on the west coast. What if he makes $50MM per year and only wants to pay state tax on half his games each year? What if he wants to play indoors so he can play longer? Texas is indoors, Toronto is Indoors
I have seen NOTHING that states Ohtani wants the west coast. Where did you see it? I have to ask. Have you ever been to Toronto? It’s a pretty great city and you get to enjoy the Canadian accents!!
Bottom line, Ohtani hasn’t disclosed his criteria for choosing. EVERYONE is guess including clowns like Heyman, Rosenthal and Verducci.
hopper15
He was never leaving the west coast. I don’t have to visit Toronto to know the weather and real estate is much better in southern california than Toronto.
baseballguru
HEY REDSOX, HENRY, BRESLOW, Being “OUT” already on Ohtani is not at all “FULL THROTTLE” From Redsox Nation POUND SALT!
JoeBrady
baseballguru11 hours ago
From Redsox Nation POUND SALT!
=====================
From the RSN that think logically, Ohtani is the last guy we should sign. For Ohtani’s salary, we can sign Yamamoto and Snell.
Zombie Bukowski
If he wants to stay on the west coast, win consistently, and get knocked out of the playoffs in the division series the Dodgers are favorites.
seanocoileain
My money is on the Angels
TrillionaireTeamOperator
Curveball: Because Ohtani wants things kept extra quiet, we will never know who signed him, only that he was signed. We will see increasing years of stat lines for him, reports that he is the highest paid player in history- but he’s not on any roster, he isn’t in any games, nothing…
I feel like the movie industry does this, too, with certain movie projects- keeps them secretive and limits the roll out until the last possible second and I get why- build anticipation and demand and let it boil over.
But this is truly ridiculous.
It’s like he thinks that the public doesn’t know what his market is, it’s like he wants to act like he isn’t going for the most money ever or at least the highest AAV ever.
Eventually he will be announced as a signed player on a team and the years, the salary, the structure- all of it will be leaked.
Also for what it’s worth I think it’s gonna be Dodgers or Blue Jays.
This one belongs to the Reds
He likes to keep things quiet. It’s the Japanese way. He’s not an American kid putting his whole life on Twitter or Facebook.
Poolhalljunkies
Or he doesnt care what the public thinks
foppert1
The man grew up and was shaped in Japan. It might as well be on a different planet to the USA. The silence is about respect and not making a spectacle of yourself.
Trollfree
foppert1 – Great point. Boy that sure sounds like LA!!! hahahaha
Bet Your Sweet Bippy
I’m loving how many people are so confident its the Dodgers. I really think people are underestimating the Cubs odds of landing him. He will literally be THE guy in Chicago, not the 3rd or 4th guy in LA.
Candlestoked
This situation reminds me of the olden days of slow news, no news, speculation and waiting for tomorrow’s paper. It must be unnerving for people who’ve only experienced updates at all times, seven days a week. Go Giants!
SuperSloth
I don’t know where he’ll end up but I’m fairly confident the contract will be structured to give him an opt out after the second season. It’ll allow him to prove he’s back after TJ surgery and perhaps hit the market ahead of his age 32 season where he won’t reach that until July. Just a thought that I haven’t seen mentioned anywhere. Maybe I’m crazy though.
Hey now
It’s his destiny to be in dodger blue. The rest is just getting him the best deal.
Trollfree
Hey now – Why don’t we rename LA the Sun because apparently everything revolves around it!!!
I.M. Insane
Watch him end up in Cincinnati.
Poolhalljunkies
Be hysterical if it turns out to be chicago.. but the white sox
This one belongs to the Reds
I have a Japanese friend who would absolutely go insane (with joy) if that happened.
I.M. Insane
Unfortunate that teams like Cincinnati and Pittsburgh don’t have or don’t use the revenue to spend on top-tier free agents. Both are great places. If I were an athlete, I would have no issues playing in either city.
its_happening
Wonder if teams are hesitant because Ohtani is not healing at the expected pace. No pitching in 2024 and perhaps missing at least a month would make some contenders re-consider if $500+ mil is the right call. The team must willing to eat the luxury tax penalty is your clubhouse leader in the Ohtani sweepstakes.
etex211
Ohtani is a great talent and seems like a great guy to have around, but I suppose some of these teams are rethinking tying up a half billion dollars plus in a DH and part time pitcher.
For the Ohtani money, my Rangers could probably bring both Garver and Montgomery back, and have a bunch of money left over.
Trollfree
etex211 – As a Ranger fan you should realize what Ohtani would mean long term. He steps into Scherzer spot in the rotation in 2025 and this team is dominant for at least half a decade. The money fixes itself by 2025 so they only exceed the cap for one season but they might be in a position to win rings for many years.
The total money spend on him (you said 1/2 billion) is going to drive ticket sales, post season money, merchandising and will come out of profits not bankrupt the owners. $50MM for Ohtani should net more profits than without him despite his high payroll number.
etex211
We have no idea what kind of pitcher Ohtani will be after his second TJ. Most guys never really come back from that. We’re already hoping for the best with deGrom in that situation. If we assume the worst of that situation, that leaves us investing over a half billion in a DH. No thanks.
One thing we need to remember is that the Rangers just won it all without Ohtani, and the Angels never even made the playoffs with Ohtani.
The Saber-toothed Superfife
Detroit
1 year
$35M
hyraxwithaflamethrower
Similarly unlikely to happen: White Sox sign me as a 42-yr old rookie and I win the Cy Young.
hyraxwithaflamethrower
Were I a GM, I’d rather split the investment anyway, especially with the uncertainty of Ohtani coming back to full strength as a pitcher. There are plenty of good pitching options, both in trade and FA, and while there aren’t any bats of Ohtani’s quality, you can still get a good bat, as well as solid defense that Ohtani won’t provide.
I’ve heard the argument that he gives you an extra roster spot, but realistically, that extra guy would be the worst guy on the team, so it’s not like he gives you room to sign another All-Star. He’s a phenomenal player, no doubt, and in the one-in-ten-billion miracle my team actually signed him, I’d be ecstatic, but there’s too much risk for me if I were a GM.
njbirdsfan
You would think being the so-called greatest player on the planet would take the team he’s on into contender status.
Guess not. I can’t say I blame these teams. Who wants to piss away a bunch of money to be a sub .500 Ohtani and Friends mess?
gvnbuist
wasn’t this article already published?
BennyGiant
Cubs,Giants and Angels will be the final 3. I think he picks Cubs,have had that feeling for a while.
dpsmith22
You would think the angels would have learned their lesson with these contracts.
Jdt8312
What kind of agent lets it get out that multiple teams that could bump his players contract up considerably, are no longer in the running? The Dodgers are bidding against themselves right now. No one else could take that kind of contract, and give a no trade clause along with it.
Whyme
The Jay’s can easily pay Ohtani.
Jdt8312
They can. But Ohtani’s agents can use other teams as leverage to get more money out of the Blue Jays, Dodgers… and the Blue Jays offer won’t beat the Dodgers offer.
YankeesBleacherCreature
This news isn’t coming from the agent. It’s from people within an organization leaking info to reporters for brownie points.
Jdt8312
It’s not for brownie point. Ohtani’s agent wanted to keep negotiations on the low, so they stated in the media that any media involvement would negate the teams that tipped the media off. They said they wanted private negotiations. But this news means that they have less chance to be able to use big market teams to their advantage. This may be useful for certain teams to call a bluff by Ohtani’s agent.
GSWfanklay
Still thinking Ohtani will love San Francisco
Poolhalljunkies
Its curious that Passan states the red sox , mets and rangers are out on ohtani but aside from the texas gm stating a pull back in spending there is no source ..or any detail whatsoever on boston or nym..its literally just Passan tossing it out there then some detail in other things these teams could do…im not saying hes inventing anything but if you are going to bother putting it out there some detail. Even “sources say” would be nice
ASapsFables
I’m not sure if you are a Boston fan but you don’t need an expert “source” to realize that the Red Sox are one of the easier teams to exclude from a serious run at Shohei Ohtani. The front office has already gone on record stating that acquiring a couple of starting pitchers including one TOR is their primary offseason goal. That’s why they have been linked to Ohtani’s fellow free agent countryman Yoshinobu Yamamoto along with Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery.
It also wouldn’t be prudent for the Red Sox to lock up their DH role with Ohtani for the next decade with defensively challenged star hitter Rafael Devers signed through 2033. Just saying…
JoeBrady
ASapsFables16 mins ago
I’m not sure if you are a Boston fan but you don’t need an expert “source” to realize that the Red Sox are one of the easier teams to exclude from a serious run at Shohei Ohtani.
=========================
He might be a casual. Most real RS fans know the need for pitching. Most real RS fans know we have ample candidates for DH and/or the outfield.
Trollfree
Joe – You are right that Ohtani only meets a need for SP based on the current team and he won’t be able to until 2025 BUT that just shows ONE MORE REASON the Devers deal is going to kill Boston for years. Theoretically, if Devers could field then Ohtani would be a productive add immediately just like Yoshida would be a productive add but the truth is both need to be DHs. Ironically, that was never a barrier for Bloom. He got a third DH in Schwarber at the deadline so why not Ohtani if Schwarber can be gotten with two DHs!!!
Seriously, it would be fun to see Ohtani in a Red Sox uniform and the cost isn’t a concern because he’s worth every penny but trading both Devers and Yoshida seems impractical. The remnants of Bloom’s mistakes will haunt Boston for years. Think about what Boston could be doing right now if Cora was gone, Devers was gone, Yoshida was gone and Story was gone. All Bloom mistakes. The team would have $70.5MM available for free agents so Ohtani, Yamamoto, Chapman and Merrifield would fit within the budget and there would be money for one more elite pitcher. With Sale rolling off in 2025 when Ohtani could pitch again, that would be an awesome team with far improved defense, more hitting and great pitching. No more years ending with a .500 record!
Oh well, we got Bloominated. Nothing we can do now to turn back time.
KyleT
Red Sox have 3 guys that should be DHing. Devers, Casas, Yoshida.
Better Bat:
Devers > Casas > Yoshida
Easier to Trade:
Casas > Devers > Yoshida
Better Defender based on Runs Saved:
Yoshida (-7) > Devers (-8) > Casas (-10)
I propose trading Casas, who would bring back a stud pitcher, and find a quality defensive 1B. In theory, a better defensive first baseman would make Devers a better defensive third baseman.
KyleT
*In this scenario, Yoshida would move to DH for the majority of playing time.
JoeBrady
Seriously, it would be fun to see Ohtani in a Red Sox uniform and the cost isn’t a concern because he’s worth every penny
============================
It would only be worth every penny IF he can pitch.
Just for fun, mentally divide Ohtani into two different players.
You pay $250M/10 for a DH who is already 29.5. So you get 3.5 good years, and 6.5 declining years. That’s a questionable value, but I’d be okay with it.
But the second half of Ohtani is $250M/10 for someone who just underwent his second TJS. I’d make serious book that Montgomery, Yamamoto & Snell will have a greater WAR/$$$ over their next contract, and I wouldn’t expect it to be particularly close.
Trollfree
RedStockings – Two things to consider in your evaluation:
1 – Devers has failed at fielding for over a decade as has Yoshida. Casas is young as is the most likely to improve.
2 – Devers kills us with a $30MM AAV, Yoshida kills us with an $18MM AAV and Casas is practically free at under $1MM through 2030.
After considering these two key facts do you think your proposal makes sense?
1 – Mitch Moreland won a gold glove and Devers still led the league in errors. You could put Paul Bunyan at 1st and he would still over throw him plus Devers is the baseball version of Roberto Duran. His nickname was “Manos de piedra” or hands of stone. No way to justify giving Devers a glove.
2 – Defensive metrics are bogus. Casas has a fielding percentage of .995 which is league average, Yoshida has a fielding percentage of .977 with league average being .988 and Devers has a fielding percentage of .942 with league average being .961. Clearly Devers is by far the worst fielder since he’s already the worst of all time at 3B. Yoshida in one season has proven the data from Japan was accurate about his lack of fielding for the seven years he played in Japan and Casas is league average after just one season. in the majors and that performance was an improvement from the minors so he’s trending in the right direction.
If it was possible to dump both Devers and Yoshida that would be the way to go because it would remove the bad defenders and not create internal conflict if a chronic self absorbed 3B had to move to DH. That’s a win-win because both Devers and Yoshida represent the worst contracts that Bloom left the Red Sox. The Story contract should be on the list too. Giving $70MM a year to two DHs and a previously injured player that needed time to recover was just stupid by Bloom.
Keep Casas and lose Devers or Yoshida or both to add payroll for player who can produce above their cost.
Trollfree
Joe – You were wrong about Betts who continues to prove his money was less than his worth in LAD and now you are under selling Ohtani as a hitter. He’s actually better than Betts!!! He’s worth $40MM a year as a hitter if the contract is 6 to 8 years. IF the contract is 10 years then his hitting is probably closer to $37.5MM.
No pitcher of quality other than Nate has done two TJs so we won’t see results until both deGrom and Ohtani return as aces from a second TJ surgery. I believe the improvements since 1974 have been significant and I believe the pitcher will get 5 to 8 years from the new ligament. Verlander and others have proven that the first new ligament can get much more than that so I’m taking a more conservative number for the second surgery but theoretically that should be the case. If he pitches in 6 of the 10 years then he’s worth roughly $25MM a year for the 10 years because when he pitches he’s comparable to Cole. The years he doesn’t lowers his annual value for the 10 years. So do the math. $250MM for his pitching and $375MM for his hitting means he is worth $625MM for 10 years.
That is his expected value based on him performing at comparable hitting excellence and pitching excellence to the other SPs and Hitters with long 10 year contracts.
If you want to argue his OPS+ isn’t going to average over 140 for the 10 years I would take that bet. If you think he won’t pitch 6 of the 10 years of the contract I would take that bet too. He’s a unicorn. He can’t be compared to anyone historically. He’s a different breed of player and you may not believe it but there are a lot of people with a far greater knowledge of baseball that think it. That’s why he’s going to get a huge contract and live up to it by out performing the contract. He will be the greatest player that ever lived when he’s inducted into the HOF.
Mercenary.Freddie.Freeman
I am starting to think Ohtani won’t be making a 50 million AAV.
ASapsFables
Sure. Because some industry insiders suggest he might be approaching a $60MM AAV instead. They also believe any Ohtani contract will have a couple of opt-outs built into it which also figures to also drive up the AAV in it’s earlier seasons. 🙂
1984wasntamanual
How can you drive up the AAV of a contract in earlier seasons?
ASapsFables
Front loaded rather than backloaded which would make more sense for a long term contract with built in opt-outs. In that scenario, why would Ohtani ever consider a deal with lower upfront dollars especially turning 30 later in the season?
etex211
Why would any competent GM front load a contract and then give the guy opt-outs?
ASapsFables
The opt-outs are there because the player usually insists on them. The unicorn is one who could demand anything he wishes and pretty much get it when the bidding comes down to crunch time among the finalists. Inflation, at least in terms of annual MLB salaries also play a major role.
Wheeler Dealer
To the Cubs confirmed
Central Valley
Who would the Giants surround Ohtani with? Yaz, Conforto? Teams would walk Ohtani every at bat..
Giants fans are once again going to be heartbroken.
Trollfree
Central Valley – Great point and what’s funny is that can be said about several of the targets being suggested. Who would protect Ohtani in a Dodger line-up of Betts, Freeman then Ohtani? Freeman or Betts? Who would then protect them?
In Texas, it wouldn’t be an issue. In NY the Yankees would have Judge in front of Ohtani so Judge is protected but who protects Ohtani? Stanton …hehehe. I don’t think so. In Toronto they could protect Ohtani with Guerrero so he’s a good fit there. In Chicago, who protects Ohtani? No Bellinger so Morel or Happ? Not likely.
There really aren’t a lot of great choices for Ohtani if he wants to win in 2024 and beyond.
Trollfree
I just did a quick check and as of right now the Baltimore Orioles payroll is below $80MM. If you add $50MM to the payroll they are back up to the amount they spent 5 to 10 years ago.
Baltimore needs pitching so Ohtani would only upgrade their DH spot of O’Hearn for 2024 but his pitching being added to their 2025 staff would make them an outstanding team for many years since their players are so young.
Maybe Baltimore is the team hiding in the shadows and will come out of nowhere to win the Ohtani sweepstakes. If that happens I would love to see the look on Friedman’s face!!! hahahaha
JJLADfan
Will Smith and Muncy is decent protection, Muncy has bombed 36 HRs 2 of the past 3 years.
Betts
Ohtani
Freeman
Smith
Muncy
Trollfree
JB – So you wouldn’t walk Freeman to get to Smith or Muncy? Really? One of the three stars will have very little protection and with the success of Betts/Freeman at the top Ohtani probably goes to the 3 hole but either way Freeman or Ohtani in the 3 hole there is little protection behind them compared to a Guerrero in Toronto, Garcia in Texas.
Trollfree
JB – Muncy hit .212 and .195 the last two seasons. Sorry but that doesn’t seem like protection at all. It seems like insentive to walk the hitter in front of him!!
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
Honestly, though, I think it’s a bad move for the Jays to sign Ohtani. I don’t think they sign him, but if they do, they’re going to be tied up in payroll for a long time. As great as he is, he has an injury history and is just in his thirties now.
ASapsFables
For the record, Ohtani will turn 30 on July 5th of the upcoming season.
Jaysfansince92
The Jays have been running fairly large payrolls lately. They passed the luxury tax line last year. It’s not like they are the Rays or the Pirates. One large salary won’t kill them. Their owners have the most money in baseball. They could run whatever payroll they want; especially if they think they can get some or all the revenue back with the boost signing Ohtani could potentially give their sports network.
etex211
The Jays are already signaling that they won’t be able to keep Vlad or Bichette, so I don’t see how Ohtani is even possible.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
Exactly, well said.
Enregistre
“Meanwhile” has to start a sentence; it can’t come in the middle, Steve.
KCMOWHOA
Dodgers will sign him. Don’t see any other real contenders unless he wants to go to Canada for some reason
Trollfree
Dodgers won’t sign him. He’s not the type of person who would enjoy the personality of the Dodgers. You know the arrogance and condescending attitude they have along with their fans. Fans who can’t figure out why he might enjoy playing in Canada!! hahaha
Is it any wonder why most non LAD fans hate the Dodgers and their self absorbed fans? One legitimate ring back in 1988 and 35 years of bragging because they win participation trophies each year. Wow that’s sad.. Rationalizing why your team can’t win must be difficult these past 35 years but hey I’m sure Ohtani is attracted to that “it’s all about me” attitude!! hahaha
Ohtani will go back to the Angels before he goes to the Dodgers.
radar
Angels dodged a big one. Ohtani can DH and perhaps nothing else. Second Tommy John surgery! All surgeries heal with non elastic scar tissue. Never the same and likely will lose 5 mph+ on fastball and with high possibility of reinjury.
Go for YOUTH!