As the offseason continues to trundle along, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Imanaga contract to be finalized:
Left-hander Shota Imanaga reached an agreement with the Cubs last night, as first reported by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, but there’s still plenty of information surrounding the deal that’s yet to come to light. The deal is pending a physical, which is expected to happen today. In addition to Imanaga’s physical, today could bring clarity regarding the specific terms of the arrangement between the sides. Reporting has indicated that the deal guarantees Imanaga just $30MM over two years and involves a complex series of options as well as incentives that could bring the total guarantee to around $80MM over a longer term.
More complex contract structures have become more commonplace in recent years with examples ranging from San Diego’s arrangement with right-hander Michael Wacha last year to superstar outfielder Julio Rodriguez’s extension with the Mariners. Even so, it’s something of a surprise to see Imanaga agree to a two-year commitment. Many in the industry believed he’d surpass Kodai Senga’s five-year deal with the Mets, and ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote just last week that some executives around the sport expected the left-hander to top $100MM. MLBTR predicted a five-year, $85MM deal for the left-hander heading into the offseason.
2. Jordan Hicks’ market:
Right-hander Jordan Hicks is perhaps the best right-handed relief option on the market and arguably the market’s second-best bullpen arm behind relief ace Josh Hader. It appears the bidding for the flamethrowing righty’s services may be gaining steam, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post indicated yesterday evening that the market for Hicks has begun to pick up. Hicks has been connected to plenty of teams this offseason including the Yankees, Astros, Rangers, Red Sox, and Angels. Hicks, whom MLBTR predicted would land a deal worth four years and $40MM this offseason, combined a 28.4% strikeout rate with a 58.3% groundball percentage and would be a strong addition to virtually any club’s late-inning mix. Will the movement on his market lead to a signing in the near future?
3. Llovera exiting DFA limbo:
Red Sox right-hander Mauricio Llovera was designated for assignment back on January 3 to make room for fellow righty Lucas Giolito on the club’s 40-man roster. Today marks one week since Llovera was DFA’d, meaning a resolution is expected sometime today. The right-hander, 28 in April, made his big league debut with the Phillies back in 2020 and since then has spent time in the Giants and Red Sox organizations with a career 5.80 ERA and 5.29 FIP in 59 career big league innings.
While those numbers are nothing to write home about, it’s worth noting that he’s excelled in Triple-A in recent years, with a 2.82 ERA and 25.9% strikeout rate at the level since the start of the 2021 season. If a team is sufficiently intrigued by that performance, they could claim him on waivers and add him to their own 40-man roster. Should the Red Sox manage to sneak him through waivers, they’ll have the opportunity to assign him outright to the minor leagues where he can act as non-roster depth for Boston headed into the 2024 campaign. Llovera has previously been outrighted, however, giving him the right to reject a second outright assignment in favor of free agency.
Hicks in front of Diaz would make a good back end of the bullpen, especially if Antone is finally healthy.
It won’t happen of course, with this front office. Chapman either, most likely.
That’s sort of unfair, they did just spend a little. I agree though, really need one more bullpen piece to be serious.
If Pagan can do what he did in the past your BP will be pretty good, IMHO
Certainly interested in reading the details. Credit to teams and players for being creative even if some fans complain.
So does anybody know how Imanaga’s posting fee gets calculated if there are options in the deal? I know it’s a simple percent calculation for a simple contract, but presumably they have rules for how to count options and incentives.
Haven’t seen a complicated contract for an NPB player until this year, but my understanding is that it’s based on the guarantee.
This is reflected in Yamamoto’s reported 50.6mil posting fee, despite the player opt-outs. May explain why the guarantee is so low for Imanaga – Cubs typically operate below the CBT so the posting fee means more than it does to the teams above the CBT.
I’m also surprised given his track record, a longer straight forward deal wasn’t brokered. When the fine print is announced, it could be he wanted a short deal in case he was unhappy in the U.S.
You don’t know what the commitment is until you see the contract. Teams and agents are getting progressively more sophisticated. An unknown like Imanaga might easily prefer a smaller guarantee with more opt-outs.
For example, a $30M/2 deal with a player option of $15M/3 makes it a very affordable $45M/5, but with the downside risk that Imanaga opts out if he any good.
WC – Umm ….. posting fees don’t count against CBT.
That’s true. Posting fees mean nothing in the Luxury Tax Dept. Because the PLAYER doesn’t receive it.
The initial posting fee paid will be based off the guaranteed amount in the deal (2/30 if that is accurate). However, if incentives from the original contract kick in at some point, additional posting fees will be paid to the NPB club at that point those incentives are reached. If what we know about the deal is true and all incentives/extensions kick in, the Cubs would end up paying posting fees on the full $80M max value of the deal. Also, posting fees do not count against a club’s CBT calculation.
Now that Imanaga has signed, for way less than what people speculated, are Bellinger, Hader, Snell, Mongtomery, Chapman, Yariel Rodriguez going to find homes before spring training? Slowest moving free agent market ever!
As long as the Bally’s situation is allowed to fester by MLB HQ in NYC, it will remain slow.
I have no idea what the Bally’s situation is.
jhome, Bally’s had broadcast rights to 14 MLB teams. They’ve had severe financial problems and have dropped 2-3 teams already, maybe several more in the coming months. Teams are worried about losing those revenues.
Maybe not a perfect summary but should be reasonable quick and dirty one.
Bally will cancel all MLB contracts at the end of 2024 unless some foolish buyer saves them.
I surmise Imanaga signed for less money to receive his opt-out option after two years. I don’t think it changes the market. Four remaining top free agents repped by Boras – Snell, Monty, Belli, and Chapman – will keep stalling.
I know there’s been little to no connection this offseason, but I’d like to see NYY go after Hader to solidify the closer spot. Clay Holmes has been OK, but putting him front of Hader would make the pen even better. I like Hicks, too, but him and Holmes isn’t as potent and neither have the experience of a Hader, who fits the classic Yankees profile of a dominant closer.
Salzilla: There’s something about the nyy that can turn good relievers into great ones. I point of course to Rich Gossage. He was a good SP with the White Sox, but when he was traded to the Yankees and only had to pitch one inning, no one could hit his fastball. It was blazing fast. That’s what the Sox did with Reynaldo Lopez. They made him the closer and, for one inning, he threw in the 101 range. The Braves want to make him a starter and I wouldn’t question AA’s opinions
Righetti is another that they just turned into a great reliever. Mo! Yeah, definitely. Still, Hader would make me feel good even if the only SP they up getting is Stroman…shudder…
I better go buy a Jordan Hicks jersey today, it doesn’t appear Josh Hader is coming to Yankee land.
Twins would have an insane BP if they sign Hicks or A Chapman as a setup man. Imagine the one two punch of Hicks and Duran, Chapman and Duran. Probably hardest throwing bullpen out there. Of course this won’t happen because we’re broke and haven’t done ANYTHING, but a guy can dream….
Saw plenty of Hicks with the Cardinals, he was pretty good during his tenure there. I have him going to the Yankees but I wouldn’t mind the Cubs picking him up. I’d actually like to get that one wrong lol
@acoss13- Yes if Hicks doesn’t sign with the Yankees. I really hope he signs with the Cubs.
Hicks makes sense for the Cubs because his ground ball rate and their ability to put a terrific infield defense on the field behind him.
Yankees have a solid short stop but the rest of that infield defense is pretty suspect. Rizzo isn’t the defender he once was at first.
Hicks only problem his whole career is staying healthy. At 4-40 I’m out. That’s too long. And all the people who are saying Imanaga will fail at Wrigley because he gives up a lot of fly balls get a grip. Cubs had a pitcher who gave up ton of home runs and won a lot of games in Wrigley Field. But the one thing he didn’t do, Just like Imanaga, Is walk guys. Name- Fergie Jenkins.
I don’t know where the whole “Wrigley is a bandbox” bs came from. Wrigley is at its worse a neutral ballpark in terms of home runs and offense.
People just don’t get it, all one really has to do is look at “expected home runs” per ballpark on baseball savant and see that Wrigley routinely ranks towards the bottom in expected home runs per stadium and that is just based on hit chart which doesn’t factor in wind, which all Cub fans know, typically blows in.
My concerns with Imanaga is Great America and Milwaukee. He will need to adjust his approach in those stadiums but if he isn’t walking and just giving up solo home runs then who cares again?
Because there are always a couple of games a year where the wind blows out in a hurricane and you get one of those 22-16 games. Those are the only ones people around the country remember. Those are relatively rare occurrences.
People also fail to use any critical thinking skills more often than not and choose to regurgitate some stat(s) they’ve heard without putting any context into it or without looking at the entire body of work. Just look at how many people think Napoleon was short. Or, taking a dig at you here 😉 Ty Cobb was a racist who murdered a man.
It also doesn’t matter who is pitching in those games. It’s turned over to the bullpen in the 3rd inning. Hicks at a third of the cost of Hader seems like a smart play. Ground ball pitcher that can throw 105.
As a life-long cub hater, I wouldn’t want to them pick up anyone of value. But even though they’ve been linked to anyone with a pulse, they finally bagged one of the bigger FA out there when it seemed like it was between the Giants and Angels. And, as my Sox team sinks into AA territory, I reluctantly wish Imanaga good luck on the north side (I’m still not going to watch them, though.)
What do we think the odds are the Cubs utilize a six man rotation?
Steele
Hendricks
Imanaga
Taillon
Wicks
Assad
While holding Smyly in reserve for spot starts, opener outings and long relief?
It’s still a waste of money if he’s hurt. Stephenson and Brasier is a safer play to me.
Drascoo- I kind of doubt it? I say that with a question mark because the Cubs can limit his innings( If that’s the choice) by sliding him back on off days and throwing Wicks or Assad in there after getting him out after 5 innings. If you’re asking me if he’ll throw 200 innings this year I would say no. I would say 175 tops plus hopefully Playoffs would be a good start. By the way my other response was to iml12. Still Counsell is very creative when it comes to pitching use.
Unclemike: As soon as Ricketts, who should be embarrassed about it, gets rid of those damn baskets it’s hard to think of Wrigley as anything but a HR haven. The reason for the baskets is to catch the garbage cubs fans like to throw on the field. Funny how none of the other 29 teams don’t have them.
drasco: I expect Imanaga will give up a lot of HRs at Wrigley even if the wind is blowing sideways. I expect it’s a band of according to data I recently saw on “Ricketts, either tear down that Federal League Park or tear it down and build a real ball park where the drinks in the bleachers can still sit there guzzling beer until they burn.” I expect it will happen.
Wrigley has some of the deepest alleys and shortest foul lines amongst Major League Parks. Plus some of the highest walls. As far as throwing stuff at guys I’m not saying it doesn’t happen but it happens at every stadium. I would say it’s more of fans using the top of the walls for cupholders( Which they also do at Fenway BTW), I know drinks have been spilled on guys but mostly by fans fighting over HR’s and knocking stuff out of other fans hands. Anything that keeps stuff from hitting the players besides liquids I can’t argue about.
They were installed in the early 70, I don’t think it had anything today with trash. It was to prevent people from jumping on the field. That was quite the craze during the Vietnam war. I think every ballpark besides Fenway has been built since. I don’t think it was an issue behind the green monster.
Honestly, no one care what the perception is, the evidence tells a different story, Wrigley is NOT a home run haven. But keep believe it, that’s fine. Remain blissfully ignorant.
Wrigley has the opposite of what you said, they have the deepest foul lines in the MLB, over 20 feet deeper than the average foul line but has closer power allies and a slightly closer center field fence (league average is 403) but they also have higher than average wall negating much of the “basket” argument people attempt to make.
There has been a lot of discussion this offseason of Hader to the Rangers, but Hicks would be an excellent fit for the Rangers as well. Regardless of whether they decided to have LeClerc keep closing or give the job to Hicks, the important thing would be three strong pieces at the end for the 7th through 9th, and combined with Sborz, who hopefully looks more like he did in the stretch and the post-season, they would have that (and let’s see how Yates looks), they would have that..
Think Hicks likely lands in Texas with Montgomery depending on TV deal outcome. Rangers do not usually sign long term relief pitcher contracts, though Hader could be an exception. If they cannot get Montgomery and Hicks/Hader, I think CY will pivot to a trade with Cleveland for Clase and Bieber or separate trades for perhaps Cease with White SOx and Harvey from Nats or Wiliams from Brewers.
Rangers: I would say the Brewers would never give up their best relief pitcher, but then again, I didn’t think the Sox would give up their ace. It’s too bad Boras makes his clients wait so long to sign, especially Hader, who no one seems to want, at least for now.
“While those numbers are nothing to write home about, it’s worth noting that he’s excelled in Triple-A in recent years”. Fantastic. Then let Llovera stay in AAA. He stinks.
Hicks would be a godsend here. I’d much rather have him plus Clevinger than just Snell.
I have a feeling he’s a Yank.
To oakland then flipped at the deadline for a good prospect from a contender
Llovera to the A’s I mean
Writers are completely full is S!!
They are just spewing crap for clicks!
Ohtani 700mil … Prediction 500mil
Yamamoto 325mil…. Prediction 225mil
Imanaga 2 years guaranteed… prediction 5 years over 100mil
Teoscar 1 year 23mil…. Prediction 4-80mil
Let’s see how close Bellinger gets to a 12 year 264mil
Or Snell 7-200mil
After seeing the recent contracts I’d guess these 2 will get 1/2 the years
Predicting the future, especially when human needs/preferences/emotions are a big factor, is very difficult.
That’s seriously deep. Congratulations
You must be killing it in the free agency prediction contest, since you are so much better at it than the writers
Drrrr Duhhh drrr
Ohtani 700mil … Prediction 500mil
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The real salary is $460M. They were almost 100% correct on that one.
I also noticed that you cherry-picked 4 of the 50 predictions. So I assume you didn’t want to add the ones where they did quite well?
That’s a cheap approach to a discussion.
Cheap? Just pointing out the professional (not necessarily mlbt) who have “inside knowledge”, often know as much as we do.
Relax bud, we’re all bored.
100% correct…. Oh geez, I guess I Pooed in your yard.
Cherry picked? I supposed but hey those are only the biggest FA this offseason. I suppose I could have mentioned Lance Lynn or Martin Maldonado because that’s what the people want!
Pump the brakes. This is baseball brah!
If the Red Sox are interested he’s not coming to Boston, so Texas? Maybe the Yankees?
Good pickup for the Cubs, but I’m not really liking these overly complicated contracts. Opt outs leave fans worrying if players will walk since as a fan you’re rooting for success. Except success leads to an opt out, that’s the point of them. Then the issue of CBT where fans are left wondering with every contract now if the team is trying to manipulate the calculation.
A lot of these deals are incentive based or swell contracts so there isn’t any manipulation involved. Luxury tax calculations are figured at the end of the year and all incentives are factored in. “Swell” contracts are simply team options and the money on the non-guaranteed part doesn’t factor into the luxury tax until the team exercises their option.
J-Rods contract is confusing but it’s still basically an incentive based with team options.
They are supposed to manipulate the CBT calculations. Even we commoners manipulate the rules to our best benefit.
FrankRoo:. Don’t worry about things you can’t change. All we can do as fans is pay the owners to see our teams play and enjoy the good players while you got ’em.
It’s simply a bad way to do contracts for the fans, the ones paying to see these players. An opt out means if you root for the player’s success and they’re successful they opt out, and on the other hand if you want them to stay you have to hope they aren’t too good to then want to opt out.
Now that the details came out I think the Cubs understood this somewhat and added the 5th year option so if he pitches well enough he won’t get the chance to opt out. This is the better way to handle opt outs. I really dislike the 8yr with opt out after yr 2 type of deals. As a fan you like “So we should plan on having him 2 yrs since as fans we expect him to perform.”