Outfielder Austin Hays has won his arbitration hearing against the Orioles, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’ll earn the $6.3MM figure his camp submitted this coming season rather than the $5.85MM salary for which the team filed. Hays is represented by the MAS+ Agency.
Hays, 28, has been a part of the Orioles’ organization since being drafted in 2016. He received a few proverbial cups of coffee to start his major league career but has established himself as a solid regular in the past three years. Going back to the start of the 2021 campaign, he’s appeared in 420 games for the O’s. His 6% walk rate is subpar but he’s limited strikeouts to a 21.6% clip while hitting 54 home runs. His combined .261/.313/.439 batting line translates to a wRC+ of 108, indicating he’s been 8% better than the league average hitter.
Defensively, Hays is a capable center fielder but doesn’t get to play there often thanks to the presence of Cedric Mullins. Most of his work has come in left field, where Outs Above Average is not too fond of his work, but Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved both consider him to be strong there. FanGraphs has considered him to be worth about two wins above replacement annually in that time, though Baseball Reference is a bit more bullish, with the latter using DRS as opposed to OAA.
He first qualified for arbitration last winter, with he and he club avoiding arb by agreeing to a salary of $3.2MM. Going into this winter, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for a bump to $6.1MM in 2024. He and the club couldn’t agree prior to the filing deadline and both sides submitted figures pretty close to that projection. In the end, the arbiters sided with the player’s camp, so he’ll get a slightly higher bump.
He’ll be eligible for arbitration again in 2025 before he’s slated for free agency. It’s possible that the club’s outfield picture will change a lot between now and then. Anthony Santander is in his final season before hitting the open market, but the club’s loaded farm system has already seen young players like Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad and Kyle Stowers make their major league debuts. Mullins is on the same arb schedule as Hays, slated for one more pass before free agency after 2025.
The O’s initially had five players without an agreement in place after the filing deadline, though they later avoided arbitration with Danny Coulombe and Cionel Pérez. Now that the Hays case is solved, they have two more decisions to come on Ryan O’Hearn and Jacob Webb. O’Heard filed at $3.8MM and the club at $3.2MM while Webb filed at $2.4MM to the club’s $2.2MM.
Hopefully no feelings were hurt. I always wonder after what Burnes said about his Milwaukee arbitration.
They all say it’s just a business and they understand, but you know they’re lying. Like when they say they don’t read the paper or listen to sports radio.
As a CLE fan I’d be all over that. Problem for the Guardians’ FO is that it makes too much sense.
“No feelings hurt”..”Keep your friends close and keep your enemies closer” – Michael Corleone.
I wish the arb hearings had a live feed. It would be fascinating to see what goes on behind closed doors when team reps downplay the performance of players, highlight their weaknesses, and who knows what else. I imagine some semblance of the following scenario has played out:
Player: “Well, if I really am the worthless POS you claim I am, why not just trade me?”
Team rep: “We’d be selling low.”
Player lunges across table in effort to strangle rep. Afterward we all shake hands and pretend it never happened.
Former FG writer Kevin Goldstein offers a lot of behind-closed-doors insight if you want to take a dive. I particularly liked his public chats.
Rod Carew, in his autobiography, talked about the process. He seemed irked at the team/management. It was so long ago I don’t remember it it was Minnesota or California.
Solid player. I think the Orioles are trying to save up for extending their young guys, hence low-balling Hays and little activity in Free Agency.
I think you’re right to the extent that they aren’t looking to extend Hays. With guys like Cowser and Kjerstad looking ready to take over corner outfield spots soon, I think they are content to let guys like Hays and Santander play out their club control years and then move on.
I don’t think the 500K difference in salaries has any bearing on locking up guys long term. If saving 500K from Hays signs Gunner, the Orioles are in more shaky financial situation than it would appear.
More likely, low balling in year 2 of Arb is about year 3 of Arbitration being cheaper.
If Hays doesn’t have a great year, I could see him Non-tendarded (IF they can’t trade him).
Good point, O’s. It’s more than just the current year’s implication with Hays…if they had won this hearing it would have helped keep next year’s salary that much lower too.
I don’t think it will get to a non-tender situation with Hays though. I think the O’s have replacements in the wings but nobody has really snatched the opportunity with both Cowser and Stowers struggling and Kjerstad being up for too little time to tell for sure.
The O’s might think their best way to extract value out of Hays and Santander over their remaining team control is to put them into “contract year” situations. I could easily see Hays having his best year next year (and finally avoiding the second-half slump) with that extra motivation.
Nontendarded made me laugh.
I doubt Hays is ever NT’d though. It’d have to be a very poor season. D plus some decent O ought to be worth $10MM for a single season in ‘25. Maybe not in Baltimore, though.
Dont think so. It’s just the Angelos way
Congratulations, Austin Hays. The all star appearance and gold glove nomination really sealed his case.
Congrats, Austin! He’s the definition of a gamer. He’s also the guy who’s showing the rest of the league how to play the Great Wall of Baltimore and I hope that factored prominently in the arbitration case.
No “defeat?”
Hays is a gamer so happy for him. He can go on tears but also can slump for weeks at a time. He is an important part of the ballclub overall
Sweet!!!
Long live labor!
Hopefully Hays has a career year. He will be traded before free agency kick in. Too many good replacements in the wings with more power. Birds are set for years to come.
There’s a clear difference in Hays’ production between 1st half and 2nd half. He really drops off toward August and September.
I wonder if the team hopes he gets off to a tear but that the team is also playing well and they feel forced to make room for Cowser and/or Kjerstad because they are also forcing their way into playing time. Maybe a July trade for additional pitching help which is always needed….trade to a team which forgets to look up publicly available splits.
Since they went up in $ on Santander and haven’t traded him yet, I now think Hays is the most likely of the 3 current OF starters to be on the move.