This offseason has proven to be incredibly slow, with many notable free agents still lingering on the open market in the middle of February. That includes J.D. Martinez, Michael Lorenzen, Gio Urshela, Tim Anderson, Amed Rosario, Whit Merrifield, Brandon Belt, Tommy Pham, Adam Duvall, Hyun Jin Ryu, Brandon Woodruff, Liam Hendriks and many more. But most notably, it includes four top free agents that were generally expected to land nine-figure deals coming into offseason: Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell.
As the calendar continues moving forward and they remain unsigned, the possibility of creative solutions has to be considered. If some club was willing to give these players a straight deal that matched their asking price, it would likely have happened by now. If they can’t find what they are looking for, they might have to open their minds to alternatives. Things can always change, especially with an unexpected injury. The O’s are suddenly without Kyle Bradish as he’s been diagnosed with a sprained UCL and his status is up in the air. That’s not to say that the O’s will suddenly pivot and sign Snell, merely to illustrate that plans can change quickly for any club.
Players in this situation will sometimes opt for a short-term deal with a high average annual value and opt-outs. For instance, when Carlos Correa first signed with the Twins prior to the 2022 campaign, it was a guarantee of $105.3MM over three years. That was a $35.1MM AAV, with Correa having opt-out opportunities after each year. That allowed him to make a huge salary that year and gave him a decent floor in the event of catastrophic injury or a huge dip in performance, while maintaining future earning power.
Correa eventually triggered that first opt-out and returned to the open market, agreeing to a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants. That deal eventually fell apart due to the club having concerns about his long-term health, but it still illustrates the appeal of taking this path. Even after that deal evaporated, Correa still managed to get a $200MM guarantee by signing with the Twins. Carlos Rodón settled for a two-year, $44MM with the Giants going into 2022, eventually opting out and signing with the Yankees for $162MM. Lucas Giolito is hoping to follow his lead, signing a two-year, $38.5MM deal with the Red Sox this winter which allows him to opt out next offseason.
The argument against Snell taking such a path is straightforward. He simply won’t have a better platform year. He just won a Cy Young award, the second of his career. He stayed healthy enough to make 32 starts and log 180 innings, allowing just 2.25 earned runs per nine. His 13.3% walk rate was quite high, but he struck out 31.5% of batters faced and induced grounders at a 44.4% clip. The walks could come down a touch, but he likely won’t sustain a .256 batting average on balls in play nor an 86.7% strand rate. Producing a Cy Young-caliber season in back-to-back years is incredibly hard for even the greatest pitchers in history.
That’s especially true for Snell, who hasn’t been the most consistent pitcher in his career. He also won a Cy Young while with the Rays in 2018, but the years in between his two award-winning campaigns were far less impressive. From 2019 to 2022, he posted a 3.85 ERA over 85 starts. None of those seasons saw him pitch even 130 innings, thanks to the pandemic and various injuries. He went on the injured list in that stretch due to a fractured right toe, loose bodies in his left elbow, gastroenteritis and a couple of left adductor groin strains.
Taking a short-term deal would carry the risk of the baseball gods souring on him and his ERA jumping up over 4.00 this year, or perhaps sustaining another injury and turning in a more limited workload. He’s also 31 years old and would be marketing himself as a 32-year-old a year from now. Based on his excellent 2023 season, MLBTR predicted him for a seven-year, $200MM deal coming into the winter. The Yankees reportedly offered him $150MM over six, but he was hoping for more years and/or an AAV of at least $30MM.
The odds of Snell faring better in next winter’s market are low. Even if he manages to stay healthy and have another great season, he will be joining a market that’s also set to feature the likes of Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber, Zack Wheeler, Walker Buehler, Max Fried, and Max Scherzer, while options/opt-outs could also add Giolito, Justin Verlander, Nathan Eovaldi and Robbie Ray to the market.
The argument for returning to free agency next winter would be that the external conditions that Snell can’t control would vastly improve. It seems fair to conclude that those factors aren’t working in the players’ favor this winter. The collapse of Diamond Sports Group is pushing down the desire of many clubs to spend, particularly into the long term where the uncertainty is greater. Teams such as the Padres, Rangers and Twins have been decidedly less aggressive this winter compared to previous offseasons. This seems to have allowed other clubs to either be patient or address their needs via trade, like the Yankees did.
Beyond that, the Mets have decided to stay away from the top of the market this offseason. They have been plenty active but have spread their money around to various player on short-term deals. They have avoided the marquee free agents, apart from sniffing around the Yoshinobu Yamamoto bidding for a while, depriving the market of one of the bigger spenders from previous offseasons.
Perhaps things will change significantly in the next nine months or so. Maybe MLB will get its desired streaming package together and the finances of the league will vastly improve as a result. Maybe the Mets have a pretty good year and Steve Cohen gets back into spending mode. Maybe the Red Sox get encouraging development from their young players in 2024 and decide to go “full throttle” for real in the coming offseason. A similar path could be ahead of the Tigers this year. Perhaps the sale of the Orioles will be approved and the new owner will want to make a big splash, shaking up the market. Maybe the Nationals or Rockies decide their rebuild has gone on long enough and it’s time to send a signal to that effect. That, however, is a whole lot of “ifs” and “maybes.”
It’s possible it could work out for Snell if he were to pivot to maximizing short-term earnings. That’s what Trevor Bauer did when he signed a three-year, $102MM deal with the Dodgers, an average annual value of $34MM. He had the ability to opt out after the first year with $40MM already banked or after the second year with $85MM already earned.
Instead of focusing on a total guarantee, Snell could push for a record in terms of average annual value. The top mark in that category is currently held by Shohei Ohtani, whose heavily-deferred $700MM deal was valued at $46.06MM annually in terms of present day value by MLB and just under $43.8MM by the MLBPA. If he were to get something like $93MM over two years or $139MM over three, he would vault himself to the top of that list.
Snell is 31 years old and could still get paid in his mid-30s if he stays healthy and effective. Jacob deGrom got $185MM over five years going into his age-35 campaign. Scherzer got $130MM over three years going into his age-37 season. Verlander got $86.67MM going into his age-40 season. At a lesser tier, Sonny Gray just got three years and $75MM going into his age-34 season, slightly better than the $63MM over three years that Chris Bassitt got going into his own age-34 campaign.
If the straight $200MM deal isn’t there for Snell, he’ll have to consider other paths. If he were to take something like the Correa or the Bauer deal, he could get roughly halfway to that $200MM target but with plenty of opportunity to go back to the open market and get the rest. He’s currently encumbered by having rejected a qualifying offer, but that wouldn’t be an issue in future since a player can’t receive a second QO in their career. The QO is generally a small detail when clubs are making $200MM investments, but that would be one thing working in Snell’s favor in future offseasons.
Still, the short-term path is fraught with risk. Baseball history is full of dominant pitchers who suffered some kind of career-altering injury and were never the same again. Predicting such things is impossible, and it’s something that every hurler has to at least think about. There’s also the possibility that the market conditions get worse and not better going forward. That’s why having the guarantee in hand is such a preferable path. As the proverb says, the bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
What do you think? Should Snell take the best guarantee he can get here in the next few weeks or maximize short-term earnings with a path back to free agency in the not-too-distant future? Have your say in the poll below!
I don’t think he will have a choice.
Nobody wants to give him what he is asking for so he’s going to have to drop the price.
Actually, what Boras is demanding….
Interesting gamble though. I think most teams are (correctly) predicting that he will be a low to mid 3 ERA pitcher and want to pay him accordingly. Boras is trying to get a perennial Cy Young candidate ace contract. He could take a 1 year Bauer type 30 mill+ contract to prove he’s durable and consistent, or he can relent and take the long term larger guarantee. It’s all kind of up in the air until we get a good idea of how streaming service deals will match up with the traditional basic cable tv contracts.
*when healthy
I think he should wait for the offer that is never coming.
Is that you, Scott?
GREAT SCOTT!
His walk rate is extremely concerning. A short term high avv deal is probably a must for most teams willing to pony up.
He is a bit of wild dominant southpaw with very nasty stuff. He should get more just for being a left-hander with dominant stuff.
2/$70 with a 3rd yr he can lock in with at least 25 starts in each year, 170 innings or something. Top 3 CY voting could trigger the 4th year and so on.
I agree with what you say but find the 170 innings funny. He’s only done that in his two great seasons. No other season was close. No guarantee at all he repeats what he did last year.
Only thing I can think is maybe he’s truly figured it out because he was also dominant in the 2nd part of 2022. But as you say he never pitches 180 innings so I have to consider that a fluke. 120 seems where he is usually at. I’d only be interested in a very short deal and only if I’m really desperate for a good starter. I could see someone giving a Verlander value 1 year deal to snatch him up so he could prove last year wasn’t a fluke (again, as he is great every 5 years or so apparently), but it would likely need to be much more complex than that. I really don’t think he’s taking anything less than 3 years at a ton of dollars
U fortunately I wouldn’t pay a premium for a guy who “figured it out” in half of a season. He could be okay, and it might be worth the risk if the price is right.
@n2cards
I sure hope your team signs him to the $70/2 that you mention.
Snell is really talented but between Cy Young’s he wasn’t a great pitcher he was a good pitcher who walks a lot of batters and doesn’t throw deep into games and teams are being required to pay Gerrit Cole money for that.
That would open his market up.
Im guessing location might be in play here too.
I actually think his location is the biggest hold up lol
He’s not worth the long term and that’s why he’s wanting it. He’s scared.
Yes
AA’s ears just perked up. If anything, Morton winning a GS in ’23 where he had 7 (!) BB vs. NYM should delight Snell and his 5.0 BB/9.
He’s the worst pitcher to ever have multiple Cy Young’s. So no. Much too risky for this guy
I still can’t believe they gave Rick Porcello the 2016 Cy Young award over Verlander and Kluber.
Porcello was better?
Porcello had a better record. But Verlander led in most of the other pitching stats. One pitched for Boston and the other for Detroit.
The reason Lou Whitaker is still not in the HOF. He played for the wrong team.
LOU WHITAKER HOF
Well he wasn’t
Porcello wasn’t even top 5 that year.
Nah, Lou was black whereas Alan Trammell was white, that made a difference in the old HOF voting. Their career stats are comparable.
The only stats Tram leads in are Batting Average (by .009) and stolen bases. Whit’s OPS+ was 117 compared to 110 for Tram.
It is probably less about being black, though that doesn’t help, and more about the fact that the writers that vote don’t know much about BB.
FWIW, Grich is better than Whitaker, and probably by a decent margin, and he only received 2.6% in his only vote. Hopefully the veteran’s committee resolves both guys.
That sentence is still kind of ridiculous. The worst pitcher to have two awards stating you were the best for those seasons.
Boras is asking for way too much for his clients. To a degree, Snell deserves to ask for a good chunk coming off a CYA season, but dear lord, there’s a limit that some teams can commit, even to the best of players.
Its called market value. If the market won’t pay it, its asking too much.
Market value would say they should be asking for something in the range of what Aaron Nola got, not almost twice that amount. Let Snell take a one year deal and see if he is anything close to last year and try his luck next winter
Nola and Snell aren’t comparable pitchers. While Snell has the Cy Young hardware, Nola is durable and has pitched with some very weak defenses behind him. Snell’s weaknesses have been helped by some pretty elite defensive teams.
Par for the course for Boras, and he almost always ends up getting what he wants!
Pretty much every team could spend more on player payroll, but many have set artificial limits, putting profits over performance.
He says with nothng to support his claim.
’84,
Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays, Cubs, Mariners, A’s – six examples of teams spending less than they have in the past, which is reducing their competitiveness.
Profits ARE performance. It’s a business . . . just ask any player trying to get paid.
sal, I’m obviously referring to on-field performance, and improvement there typically leads to increased profits from playoff revenue and increased fan interest/attendance.
GBS, Usually, not always, the limits aren’t artificial.
1-Some teams want to reset the CBT.
2-Some teams have uncertain TV contracts.
3-Some teams will wait for the window on contention.
4-Some teams are so far over the cap that Snell’s $27.5M really costs them $55M+.
Joe,
1, 3, and 4 are self-imposed (i.e., artificial) limits. The CBT doesn’t have to exist, and getting better players helps open windows of contention.
So self imposed means believing that the economic realities of the game do not exist? I mean sure the owners of the teams could open up their uncle scrooge money bins and pay the remaining free agents $70M/Year and $80M./Y next year and so on …..money? what’s money? we’re just trying to buy players to win championships!
allfor,
Thanks for that level-headed response. Sure, $70M-$80M is obviously what I exactly was suggesting.
Or, going back to my previous examples, the Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays, Cubs, Mariners, and A’s all are choosing not to spend to previous levels, making the decision not to field the best team using a payroll they’ve demonstrated in the past they can support.
Baltimore’s competitive window is wide open and payroll is under $100M. Snell or Montgomery would make them better. The Cubs would benefit from signing Bellinger or Chapman. Toronto could bring back Chapman. Boston and Seattle could improve by adding one of these guys. Oakland could demonstrate they’re not dead.
Snell should just get his contract deferred. Am I right?
Alright, that joke has run its course now…
Let’s be real, in time this joke may have a reduced annual comment average, but the payouts will continue long into the future.
Not really, its course was deferred, too.
Walks are an issue, but he’s filthy! Would love to see him rocking the Pads brown and gold again!
No. He should consider locking down the most money possible with opt outs
he would do better to lock in like a 2 or 3 year deal with a much higher AAV and possibly even an opt out attached. no one wants to have him locked on their team when he is in his 40s but plenty of teams will give him a good chunk to have him the next few years
SFG 3/100
this would be a good move for both parties imo
I agree, but I was thinking more along the lines of:
BRS 3/100
oh yeah then I counter with the giants 3/101 lol
I agree with this line of thought
Naaww. He’ll sign a back-loaded, long term deal with incentives and escalator clauses. The AAV will be lower with opt-outs after year one, two, and three but it’ll be for six-years plus guaranteed. I don’t expect the contract to be straight-forward.
But where is that contract coming from? Who is still out there offering six year contracts?
Offer him high AAVs with a series of opt outs. The walk year was clearly successful in motivating him.
The Yankees, The Mariners, The Red Sox, The Cubs, The Angels (slightly dubious about this one), The Giants. There are plenty of teams holding out hope that he drops his price.
The Mariners aren’t going to spend big on a pitcher. The Red Sox aren’t going to spend at all. The Cubs make sense. The Giants make sense. The Yankees are a weak maybe. The Angels are an even weaker maybe.
It’s not much of a market.
it isn’t the price that scares the teams it is the years
All it takes is two teams to bid. I’d be surprised if either the Cubs or Giants don’t end up with either Snell or Monty.
given snell’s jekyll-and-hyde routine over the years, i’d be wary of taking a short-term deal if i was him. he’s past 30 and just won a cy young award. he’s never going to have higher earning power than he does this year.
His two Cy Youngs are sandwiched by a long streak of mediocrity.
I don’t think he should take a short term deal, he is 31, injury prone and had a career year, his value is only going down.
He probably needs to take a little step back on the AAV, maybe like 6/90 or so.
3/90 would make sense. 6/90 would be a terrible contract for him.
There isn’t some magical contract fairy handing out deals so Bellinger, Snell and Chapman need to realize the offers they have are the best they are going to get. Even if a guy gets hurt in spring training, no one is waivering.
That’s BS. They’ll get paid. This happens every year, and every guys like you creep into he comments saying that the money isn’t there and the teams will hold fast. The Giants, the Red Sox, The Yankees, The Cubs, the money is there and someone will give these guys a lot of money.
nope.Teams are too smart in 2023. There are no teams that live in 2003 anymore. You can’t sneak a piece of cheese past a rat anymore.
Cubs, Red Sox, Giants are not all the sudden going to say “okay”. They’ve offered the best contract they are going to offer and they need to realize that at some point.
If I’m an organization, I’m not bringing in a player after position players have to report. As a Cubs fan, I say forget it and roll with PCA and Busch at first. I’ll make adjustments at the trade deadline
It’s not that the money isn’t there. Teams refuse to overpay for every player. Snell wants ace money. He pitches 5 innings. Yankees gave him a terrific offer. Im just surprised the Giants aren’t overpaying for people. They are behind the Dodgers and the up and coming dbacks. They’ve missed out on a ton of free agents. I feel like Farhan has no choice but to go after Snell and bellinger to be able to compete at all
It is really odd to me that the reigning NLCY award winner is unsigned as all pitchers start to report to spring training. I don’t like Boras at all because of his tactics, but he sure seems to get most of his clients what they’re looking for. Not sure about this year though.
A lot of these guys have their warts but I think whoever signs Snell will be happy.
I mean Snells biggest issue is health (and he throws too many pitches, doesn’t go deep into games). He’s only threw 180 innings twice in his career, both times leading to the Cy young. He posts a very solid WAR and FIP year in and year out but the perception of inconsistency is the reality.
I think Snell and Bellinger end up with Arrieta type contracts, a lot less than they wanted/expected. The problem that he faces is no team is in position to flinch, Cubs have PCA (in Bellingers case) the Giants are not going to suddenly top the Snakes and Dodgers (and I think the Padres will be better) so them spending for this year is moot. You can go on and on but the reality is they are luxury pieces and teams aren’t ponying up for them
I think he’s after Snell, but Bellinger money seems to have went to Lee & Soler. Probably because Boras held out for too many years.
considering he is expecting about 3 times that I don’t see him doing that
Seems like we’re all split on the vote crazy. lol. I’m a Dodger fan and I’m starting to think we should offer him a 2 year 70 million dollar deal with an option for a third.
You guys don’t need him. Dodgers look set to run roughshod over the NL West.
For sure we don’t need him but we’ve already spent a billion and he’s still available why not ? You can never have too much pitching
ScottN59c-Not saying I disagree but the games still have to be played. With all the Dodgers’ success in the past decades they don’t have a whole lot to show for it. Sort of like my 49ers right now. I know it needs to be World Championship or bust for the Dodgers this year and many more after.If they win it all good for them, but if not bye bye Dave Roberts.
“World Championship or bust”? Murica, F#&k Yeah!
Dodgers have so many question marks with their pitching staff it’s ridiculous. The Diamondbacks are going to Snake the division, pun intended.
Just give him $800M deferred with only $20M AAV
Teams should demand an opt out for everyone they give. Mutual opt outs!
Teams should demand an opt out
====================
They do, but it is referred to as team options.
No one wants Snell in their clubhouse for the next decade+, if they did he would be signed already. The offseason is over, spring training has begun and with each passing day as we get closer to opening day the chances of any of the remaining Boras clients securing big money multi-year deals dwindles
They should negotiate up to 6-165 w yankees and take it and run
No he shouldn’t
Definitely disagree…. I think thats an overpay for him…. we’ll see if some team is foolish enough to cave
Snell should feel fortunate to get 5/100 or 6/120. He’s already shown he’s not consistent, durable or consistently durable!
Carlos Rodon got 6/$162M and isn’t consistent, durable or consistently durable. Snell has two Cy Young Awards to zero for Rodon. Snell should expect a significantly larger contract than Rodon.
That’s why the yankee offer to snell was just an offer they knew he would turn down. Pandering
The Rodon contract is exactly why Snell will not get that same offer.
Rodon had just had two years where he was a clear top 5 pitcher in baseball, better than Snell’s last two years. These contracts will always be based on most recent performance.
Fact is that he just isn’t a good pitcher.
5 inning guy
High walks
did it in an extreme pitchers park with great defense
Not a winner
Questionable views
I would offer 2 for 20 a year
He would laugh and show you the door.
he’s not laughing at anyone at this point! He’s crapping his pants every day he hasn’t signed.
You must be relatively new, my friend. This place reeks of dumb.
Snell is like a litmus test for whether or not people are old or new school when it comes to pitcher valuation
he’s good. $30 million a year or $200+ million is Hall of Fame great he’s not that
Ah yes the classic stats “not a winner” (just won his second Cy) and “questionable views” (shockingly not everyone feels exactly the same as you do about everything).
The way this is going he should consider A deal, any deal.
10 years 250 mill but player option after year 5 6 and mutual options at 7 8 club option at 9
Front load the deal
5 years 150-180 to maximize your value
Back half isn’t as much a financial commitment
Farhan: “Did somebody say opt-outs?”
Giants have already blown their wad this offseason. Why butt up against the luxury tax threshold to support a lineup that has more holes in it than swiss cheese?
Short term deal or back loaded deal really means…. Hello Seattle Mariners, my home town team !!
Anything more than6 years for a pitcher is a bad investment for the team. It rarely works out. For Balakay Snell 5/185 with an opt out after 3. An option for a 6th year automatically kicks in if he wins a xy young in any of the first 3 years. 37mil aav
1 year deals and Cubs might sign 3 of them.
what we all think doesn’t matter. He’ll get what the market gives
Why can’t he get above the 160 the yanks offered with opt outs that give him eligibility if he wants to rejoin free agency. I mean the time to secure a bag for him shouldn’t be better than now coming off a cy young but still that alternative should be perceived as a win win.
One question: if he signs $30 mm deal with some team, does this team surrender a draft pick?
Has to be 50mil
How about incentive based deal? I really doubt that teams are eager to give up draft picks to sign a player to a short term deal.
First question that comes to mind…are they all under Boras?
Yes they are. That’s the only factor in this equation.
Amazing. There’s free agency, and then there’s Boras.
If Snell can get the 6/162mil deal Boras got Rodon last year, take it and run. He is 31, inconsistent and doesn’t go deep into games.
Snell has been much better than Rodon, so he should expect more.
Yes and no. The Rodon deal was widely viewed as bad upfront/fantastic for him and Yanks outbidding themselves to a degree. Other clubs won’t play the game of offering player ‘x’ more than bad contract of player ‘y’. Every FA salary would be through the roof if they said “I am better than that guy who somehow got a big contract.” Slightly less significant is Rodon became a FA at an age 1yr younger.
If I were him, take the long term deal. If I’m a team, sign him short term.
There in lies the problem.
Short term as in what 3/100? Don’t think any team is doing that either. So he will likely sign a 5-6 maybe 7 year deal in the 25-30m range. At 7 I could see 7×25=175m.
That’s between 125-175m deal. There isn’t a lot of money out there and the teams that would be interested would likely have interest in Chapman, Bellinger and Monty. Which on the top of my head would be the cubs and giants. Followed by a little less likely Yankees, angles blue jays.
I don’t see a team signing more than one of those guys. Which means at least one will likely be left to sign a short term deal. I don’t think snell will be that one.
I believe the price on all four of the Boras guys will drop. Monty I think gets 20-25m per, Chapman 18-20m per, bellinger 20-25m per and snell 25-30m per. The longer the years the lower the aav.
He’ll get 3/120 with two opt outs from the Dodgers, as they go full villain mode.
Boras has boxed Snell into a corner with his waiting game trying to get multiple teams bidding against each other. Snell may have no choice to accept a short term deal or a 1-year deal where he can re-enter 2025 FA. At this point it’s between Boras & Snell to accept the best deal available
Blake Snell should consider a new agent.
Teams are waking up. In the six full seasons in his career, he has averaged less than 150 innings pitched. No one is going to drop an eight year guarantee on his lap.
A bunch of Commies, devaluating the dollar.
In the case of Snelll, maybe teams have figured out that a guy that throws just over 5 innings every 5 games isn’t worth a nine-figure investment.
AM
“a guy that throws just over 5 innings every 5 games ”
All dépends how good those innings are
150 shut out innings a year would be the greatest pitcher in history
All dépends how good those innings are
==========================
LOL!
You’re tilting at windmills. For some insane reason, fans consider all innings as identical.
1-Snell averages 5.26 IPs/GS over the last three years, and the MLB average last year was only 5.14. Snell is low for a #1, but not off the charts low.
2-Snell ranked #1=31 in GS over three years, and #43 in IPs. Again, a little weak, but not crazy weak.
3-OTOH, Snell is #19 in fWAR, and #21 in FIP.
He clearly qualifies, imo, as a #1.
That’s why teams are lining up to sign him, eh? You’re drinking the Kool-Aid.
He’s a damn good pitcher. Every other year or so.
And if he did it every year, he of course would be. But he doesn’t. And that hasn’t translated to postseason success either.
The leftover FA would be the beginning of a decent team which is rare this late in the offseason
Since we’re being asked to play with other people’s money, I think he should agree to pitch for the next five years for the loose change he can find under the clubhouse sofa cushions.
Send a hat around in every clubhouse. Whichever clubhouse throws the most money in the hat, gets a Snell. The money collected in the hat shall be his salary.
If you throw in unlimited chicken fingers, a fresh pack of drawers before every start and a pint of bourbon after every losing start I think we got a deal!
He’ll get his money because they always do. Guy’s the reigning Cy Young winner, after all; that’s not worth nothing. There are holes in his game, but probably some team will suffer an injury in the first few weeks of Spring Training and allow Snell and Boras to save face.
MLB free agency is broken
Why do you say that?
He seemed destined for a short term deal from the start of the off season. He’s too inconsistent to justify a long term contract if any kind, because his best seasons and worst seasons are so far apart in value. One year he’s an $8M pitcher, the next year he’s a $25M pitcher, the year after that he’s a $13M pitcher, the year after that he’s a $55M pitcher- so which one are you going to get? There’s no way to know, but it’s best to bet on the lower end.
By that logic, ya gotta validate him by the aggregate of those performance values. $8M + $25M + $13M + $55M = $101M divided by 4 = $25.25M overall annual value. Tack on $8M for the recent Cy Young on one year and he’s probably worth:
2 years/$58.5M, give him a $5.5M buyout on some options, make it a 2 year/$64M guarantee, with a maximum possible value of 6 years/$201M with various opt outs, buy outs, options, escalators etc.
Sign a 1/2 year deal with opt-out in the second half. Max AAV.
I’m giving him 5 years 150 or 6 years 180. Take it or leave it.
He’s such a volatile pitcher. He should definitely take the biggest guaranteed deal he can get. Have to imagine he still has at least one 150 million+ deal out there.
Too bad Steve Cohen’s not willing to overpay AGAIN!!
Even the LOLmets aren’t biting when it comes to Boras clients.
Speaking on him and I know one team looking for a starter the Astros would they go after him if he comes down lower. I know they just dealt the Boras with Altuve. And are for an extension for Bregman.
But Snell and Montgomery are 2 bigger names not signed. Of pitchers. Rangers said we do not have the money. So what will Montgomery do.
Will Bellinger remain a cub for one more season perhaps then try again.
Snell even wanted to pitche for the Mariners at start of off season or such or that.
I know a lot would vie for Snell and Montgomery if their asking price was lower.
But yes the Diamond Sports thing is a hold up for teams and can’t go 5 to 12 years at least in that area of a contract.
Who knows if they are worth it for that long even.
3 for $120, opt outs after every year.
Half the league has no idea what TV money they’ll get in 2025. Bad time to be a free agent.
Take what you can get.
I think it’s more likely that the trade for Corbin Burnes was spurred by the news that Bradish was hurt (considering the O’s have known since late January). I doubt they make another move yet.
Chapman, Montgomery, Bellinger and Snell are all Boras clients. This year I think his strategy of slow walking the market and making the clubs eventually meet his price for his clients has failed. If Boras had Ohtani he would still be unsigned..
3 year $100 mil?
Snell hasn’t been signed because he’s high maintenance. He can’t perform without a LOT of emotional support.
Evidence???
Tired of repeating myself here. Maybe I’ll generate a statement to copy/paste. Maybe not.
2 years, $70M guaranteed. Finish in the top 3 of the CYA one of the two years, get a player option for another 3/105 and the team can buy you out for $15M. Do it both years, get a player option for another 5/150 and the team can buy you out for $25M.
Perform and get paid.
Snell has said he wants to pitch for the Mariners. I wish team ownership would open their wallets enough to give him a short-term incentive-laden deal. A rotation of Kirby, Castillo, Snell and Gilbert + either Woo or Miller would be dynamite. They can make it happen, help the team get better immediately… they just have to say “yes”, and he might agree to a deal, Boras notwithstanding.
Absolutely at this point. It’s a shame that Snell hasn’t been signed to this point. This guy has won a CY in both leagues and pitched excellent against the tough AL East for years while in that division. Cole got a massive deal and he hadn’t won a CY yet. Sign the short term high end AAV and then hopefully get paid next season.
Dodgers and Braves aren’t biting cos Snell has Boras. That should tell you something about how those 2 ballclubs do business.
Spring training games haven’t even started. The longer snellzilla remains unsigned the more entrenched his demand for a long term K becomes. Once spring games start some teams will come to the realize how weak their front end rotation is and injuries will bite others. Let’s revisit the topic around March 16th and see where things stand.
Holding out for that last almighty dollar.
He was always destined for a short term contract given his inconsistent extremely up and down track record.
1 year/$50M guarantee with a $10M mutual buyout on a 3 year/$75M player option or a 4 year/$150M club option, all with opt outs.
So 1 year/$40M plus $10M buyout or 4 years/$115M or 5 years/$190M etc with opt outs every single season regardless of the type of option contract that maybe gets activated. There is an exit strategy for both team and player the entire length of the deal(s).
The longer Snell waits the harder it’s going to be for him to be in season form to really help a team and to actually make the team feel like he’s a part of them and that diminishes his value.
That also should accelerate teams’ desire to sign him.
He should have taken the deal with the Yankees
Agreed. More than enough millions, 6 years, good chance of a WS, the whole pin stripes thing.
Would be settled in and preparing at camp in the optimal time frame. Could still happen I suppose.
“More than enough millions.”
According to whom? That offer was less than Rodon got, and Snell has been better than Rodon.
Me. More than enough to live comfortably forever.
You defined the issue. Players look at their contract as the measuring stick against their peers. Ego driven BS.
He admitted it himself prior to spring training, 2023 season. He doesn’t normally put in his work in the spring, thus he always has slow starts. He decided to put in his work this last spring knowing that it was a walk year. Who would like to sign a guy who admits he doesn’t try his best?
Do you try your best 100% of the time at your job?
if my job paid $20M a year I would! But Snell is an idiot for admitting it!
Best part about this off season has been the insignificance of Boras. Nola’s and Ohtani’s men have taken the spotlight. Wider spread of influence is good for baseball.
Or should Blake Snell fire his agent?
Well Giolito isn’t in same situation as Rodon at all. One had to “prove” ability to stay healthy and was coming off a nice year. Giolito is coming off 2 atrocious years and has no health concerns I know of. Sort of the same but reason for the 2 year deals were different. Giolito just hasn’t been any good. Couldn’t hurt leaving White Sox. Everyone underperformed with them
One year of Snell coming off the Cy Young – how much? $40M, $50M? If you want him for one year or two years you will have to pay a premium. One year $50M, two years $95M. Boras has the numbers figured out. Snell will live comfortably after this is all said and done.
Scott Boras is insane. He interferes with the team operation which is counter to what most of us want to see. I’m rooting against him.
No one is forcing a team to deal with Boras. Lol at having an issue with Boras
Boras works for his clients.
Maybe Boras and Manfred should have a cage match. Nothing on the line, just let them duke it out. That should be worth big PPV $$$.
‘Boras works for his clients’. Try again: Boras works for Boras.
Where does TA end up? He was already headed towards a 1 year prove it deal to try and re-establish his value but is he on his way towards a minor league contract? Seems unbelievable since he was All Star so recently.
Seems believable since he was awful so recently.
He might be waiting for an injury to get a route to more consistent playing time. He was really, really bad last year, but as you mentioned he has been pretty decent as recently as 2022.
Definitely is bad that he doesn’t have a team yet but the “positive” thing for him is that likely a few starters will get injured during the first couple weeks of spring training.
The first victim are the orioles and Kyle bradish who worst case could be out for the season.
The same could happen to other contenders too, if the astros, rangers, dodgers braves, Phillies or Yankees lose a top of the rotation starter they could get desperate.
The only contender who might be able to buffer such a loss might be the mariners but everyone else would take a big hit when losing a top starter that could put their playoff spot at risk.
So boras might be inclined to wait out the first two spring weeks and hope for a big injury.
The question of course is which team does have the financial flexibility at that point but I do think the demand for a top starter generally will go up as spring training starts and guys get injured.
With the number of teams that get into the playoffs now, how many of those teams would actually be at risk of losing their playoff spot? On top of that, how many teams are going to sign a 6 (or whatever length deal he’s looking for) year deal to patch a 1 year hole?
It seems that a lot of people are also ignoring that the teams that are already over the tax are going to be paying a % penalty on every dollar they give Snell this year and it’ll make it harder for them to get under the tax line in subsequent years.
He should just take a home town discount and sign a year contract with Seattle if he does decent trade him at the trade deadline if he sucks like Kolten Wong then you can release him. But I definitely wouldn’t sign him for anything over 2 years
Congratulations, you’re in the running for worst suggestion!
For himself, he should try to get a long contract. He’s 31, isn’t an innings eater, the NL CY, and his value is unlikely to ever be higher.
Taking short term contracts might get him some short term money but will likely receive diminishing returns if his velocity starts to dip.
Most guaranteed money now. If teams aren’t willing to pay him what he wants now, coming off a Cy Young award, why would they do it next year or the year after that if he pitches closer to his career averages in 2024-25?
Short and sweet if the market is not willing to command you make the market command for you. You just won the cy young. You’ve got a saftey net in place. The market is begging for ripe rates on premium pitching. Will the league really black ball Bauer and Blake in the same way on both ends of the Spectrum? Just be ready and patience is your virtue. The leagues best weapon against itself and the players is the clock.
Snell should wait until teams pony up the necessary cheese it will take to sign him. Believe the Angels will make a big splash for him, Montgomery and JD Martinez. Bellinger? He might have to settle for a shorter deal. Maybe a three-year in the $60 million range. If he does well, he’s still young enough to score big the next time he’s a FA.
Snell is the weakest 2 time Cy possibly EVER. The years in between his Cy’s he was 25-26, 3.85, and averaged 103 innings 2019-2022.. The lack of a HUGE offer hinges on his durability, and I’m sure some input from former team mates and coaches, managers. I would expect every interested team has rostered players that have played with him and offered insight. His walks increased a lot in 2023 and I’m wondering if he’s “all that”. I would sign him to a 2 year deal that would turn into 3 or 4 if the innings top 190 or 200. I’m forced to see a lot of Rays games, living in the Tampa area, and I never saw the toughness or grittyness, that you see in some “aces”. After his 1st CY he was just 10-10 before his trades to SD with innings going way down. He doesn’t deserve ACE money yet,and I doubt he’ll ever reach that echelon. 2 seasons out of 8 with more than 10 wins isn’t screaming ACE or even #1. Buyer beware, back-load incentives heavily, make his earn his keep.
Citing wins is silly since that’s largely a team stat. Citing IP while not accounting for the shortened 2020 season is disingenuous. He’s only at 121 IP excluding that year, which certainly is low, but it’s 17% higher than what you said.
While calling wins a team stat may be silly to you, but the guy who throws his glove on the mound and the team knows their chances of winning are the best they can be is invaluable. No ace of a winning team goes 10-20, no matter all the back up stats. Some pitchers win and some don’t. Nolan Ryan was long considered an ACE. Nolan Ryan went 105-95 the last 10 years of his career and was thought of as something special, pitched in 1 world series (2 1/3 innings) in his entire 27 year career. Yet he won 324 games, losing 292 and was never the guy to count on, never the stopper, never the big winner. He last won 20 games when he was 27, retired at 46. He didn’t instill winning in his team mates, and he was a workhorse and his teams version of an ACE.. Snell is no workhorse, never pitched 200 innings, and never a huge winner. He wants an ACE contract, and if he gets one he should thank his lucky stars, because he’s never proved that to be the case.
jad
LOL
Well said.
Snell screams SF Giants if both he and they get past the mid-point of spring training without either one moving on. Of course, another team or two, having been mentioned in the running, could have a starter go down/unable to deliver in the early going and jump start the Snell negotiations.
Love watching him throw. It’s a rollercoaster. Pretty sure he’s gone more than 7.0 IP like 1 time in the past few years. Lots of k’s, lots of pitches, lots of walks.
OTOH, he had 9 starts of exactly 5 innings, and his ERA was 2.40 in those starts
3/105
Opt out after year 1 and year 2
I’ll bet the NYYs would go above $105 and they’d give him the opt outs. I’d also add in the magic trigger that adds another year for each time he doesn’t opt out. Same clause Cole has. This offers options/protection to both parties.
He’s going to need to drop the AAV a little bit if he wants the most interest in signing him to a long term deal. That’s it. Either way I hope the Giants crack and sign him.
DUR
“He’s going to need to drop the AAV a little bit if he wants the most interest in signing him to a long term ”
Yes. That’s how that works
You’re a moron.
DUR
Ssays the guy who posted “water gets things wer” like he discovered some great revelation
If I’m Snell I take a long term deal. He’s a decent pitcher, but I don’t his approach will lead to sustainable greatness. I think his value and leverage are higher than they ever will be; much, much higher in my mind. He’s not getting the big payout because I think a lot of Fans fear this true too. He wants to be paid like a perennial Cy Young candidate and he quite simply isn’t.
I’ll say it again…. If Snell and Montgomery fire Bora$$ as their agent, both would be signed within 1 week.
Funny how players stick with Boras as their agent despite what fans think of him. The reason must be mind control. Nothing else explains it.
More guys need to take a page out of Dave Robertson’s playbook, self representation…
Play ball!! Go Cubs Go!!!
Didn’t I just read this article on FanGraphs, éxept it was way more informative?
blogs.fangraphs.com/what-if-blake-snell-asked-for-…
This is more about the market than the individual players on the market. Revenue fears are driving this market for the first time. After decades of rising local media revenues, those revenues are beginning to drop. Depending on how much the revenues drop, teams might also see a drop in their valuation. Uncharted territory.
Deciding the best path requires a very powerful crystal ball at this point. All but the top 5 or 6 revenue teams have good reason to be cautious.
Snell is a stud but no owner wants to pay that ransom for a guy who only pitches 5 or 6 innings. That is very taxing on a bullpen every time he pitches
All 4 are in the same situation. 1 year is better than sitting out.
This feels like a effort by the teams to screw Boras. He has held owners up for years and inflated the market along the way.
I doubt any team will give in to his demands and the player will end up going over his head to sign a short deal with a perfered situation
Eh, all these guys should either bring their asking prices back to reality or just sit out 2024 completely. If nobody wants to overpay, they’re not going to.