With left-hander Shota Imanaga poised to join Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, and Kyle Hendricks in the Cubs’ rotation in place of Marcus Stroman this season after the veteran righty signed with the Yankees last month, one spot remains open in the club’s starting rotation with pitchers and catchers set to report to camp for Spring Training next week. While it’s not impossible to imagine a surprise trade for or signing of an arm such as Shane Bieber (who the Cubs were connected to earlier this winter) or Jordan Montgomery, all indications point toward the Cubs turning their attention towards a reunion with Cody Bellinger at this point in the offseason.
Should Chicago enter the 2024 campaign with only their internal rotation options, here’s a look at who could be under consideration to join the starting five:
The 34-year-old left-hander, in some ways, appears to be the obvious choice for the final spot in the Cubs’ rotation. Signed to a two-year, $19MM contract last winter, Smyly started 23 games for Chicago last year and enjoyed a great deal of success early in the season, including a 10-strikeout game in late April where the southpaw came fell just four outs short of a perfect game. Through 15 starts, Smyly had a strong 3.38 ERA and a decent FIP of 4.33, though his strikeout rate of just 19.9% raised some eyebrows.
Unfortunately for Smyly, the wheels came off from there for him. He posted a 9.00 ERA and 6.88 FIP in 35 innings of work across his next eight appearances and found himself demoted to the bullpen, where he found some solid success in short relief. In sixteen relief appearances from August 13 onward, Smyly dominated with a 1.13 ERA in 20 2/3 innings of work and a 33.7% strikeout rate. Those strong relief outings didn’t translate to better performance out of the rotation, however, as Smyly surrendered 10 runs in just four innings of work across his final two starts of the season on August 22 and October 1.
Given Smyly’s superlative results out of the bullpen late in the season and his pronounced struggles as a member of the rotation, it seems unlikely that the Cubs would offer Smyly the inside track to the fifth starter role entering the 2024 campaign, though it’s possible he could earn the role through a combination of strong performance this spring and injuries to other options.
Wesneski won a camp battle for the club’s fifth starter spot last spring, beating out veteran right-hander Adrian Sampson for the role. Wesneski’s opportunity in the rotation came on the heels of a stellar debut late in the 2022 season, shortly after Chicago acquired him from the Yankees at the trade deadline in exchange for sidearming reliever Scott Effross. In six appearances down the stretch for the Cubs that year, Wesneski dominated to a 2.18 ERA and 3.20 FIP while striking out 25% of batters faced.
Unfortunately, Wesneski’s 2023 audition for a rotation job did not go nearly as well, as he allowed a 5.33 ERA and 5.96 FIP across 50 2/3 innings of work over 11 appearances (10 starts) to open the season. Wesneski was moved to multi-inning relief shortly there after and would make just one start (which lasted only two innings) the rest of the season, posting a respectable 3.72 ERA and 4.86 FIP in 38 2/3 innings of work over his final 23 appearances. It’s not hard to imagine Wesneski returning to the starting rotation at some point in the future, as the 26-year-old remains under club control through the 2028 campaign, though it appears likely he has been surpassed by other youngsters on the rotational depth chart for the time being.
The most experienced arm on this list outside of Smyly, the 26-year-old Assad made his big league debut in 2022 and pitched decently in a nine-appearance cup of coffee where he posted a 3.11 ERA and 4.49 FIP over 37 2/3 innings of work. Assad competed with Sampson and Wesneski for the fifth starter role out of camp last year, though his bid for the role was complicated by a detour to participate in the World Baseball Classic for Team Mexico.
Assad’s time in the tournament saw him dazzle with 5 2/3 scoreless innings of work as a multi-inning reliever. He struck out six on just two hits and a walk while touching 97 with his heater. The strong performance in a relief role led the Cubs to enter the season with Assad in that role, though he struggled to a 9.82 ERA in 7 1/3 innings across his first three appearances for Chicago last year, prompting the club to option him to Triple-A.
Upon returning to the majors in early May, Assad dominated out of the bullpen for the next three months, posting a 2.11 ERA in 42 2/3 innings of work across 16 appearances despite a 4.01 FIP. The Cubs then moved him to the rotation for the majority of the stretch run, and the right-hander held his own in the role with a 2.88 ERA and 4.25 FIP in 59 1/3 innings of work across the season’s final two months. Assad’s quality work in the rotation down the stretch with Chicago last summer should give him the opportunity to earn the final spot in the club’s rotation this spring, though its possible the Cubs value his versatility as a player who’s had success swinging in and out of the rotation throughout his young career.
Chicago’s first round pick in the 2021 draft, Wicks has the most impressive prospect pedigree of any of the club’s likely fifth starter options this spring. The southpaw has quickly climbed the minor league ladder and reached the majors last year with just 48 starts in the minor leagues under his belt, leading to some top 100 prospect buzz this winter with ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranking Wicks as the #41 prospect in the entire sport, just five spots behind Kyle Harrison of the Giants. That impressive ranking is largely backed up by Wicks’ performance on the field. In 20 starts split between the Double- and Triple-A levels last year, Wicks posted a 3.55 ERA in 91 1/3 innings of work while punching out 26.5% of batters faced.
The lefty’s major league debut went nearly as well, as he posted a 3.00 ERA with a 3.95 FIP in 33 innings of work across his first six starts in the big leagues, though he struck out just 17% of batters faced during that time. Unfortunately, Wicks suffered the first blow-up start of his big league career in his final start of the season, surrendering six runs on six hits and one walk in just 1 2/3 innings of work against the Brewers. That left him with a uninspiring 4.41 ERA and 4.70 FIP across his first taste of big league action, though he did generate grounders at a solid 46.8% clip during that time.
Given the success he’s flashed in the majors and his prospect pedigree, it would hardly be a surprise to see the Cubs hand Wicks the keys to the final spot in Chicago’s rotation this spring, though its possible his low strikeout rate in the majors and ugly final start last year lead the club to believe the 24-year-old southpaw, who has pitched just 33 innings at the Triple-A level to this point in his career, needs more time to develop in the minors before joining the rotation full time.
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The aforementioned four arms appear to be the most likely internal options for the Cubs’ fifth starter spot to open the season, though there are at handful of dark horse options worth a mention as well. Top pitching prospect Cade Horton was the club’s first round pick in the 2022 draft and is generally regarded even better than Wicks after he dominated the lower minors to the tune of a 2.65 ERA in 21 starts last year. With that being said, the 22-year-old has no experience above the Double-A level, where he made just six starts last year, and has not yet been stretched out to the level required for a big league starting pitcher as he topped 75 pitches in an outing just three times last year.
Ben Brown is another prospect who has gotten top-100 buzz for the Cubs. Unlike Horton, he’s already on the 40-man roster and has reached the Triple-A level, though he struggled to a 5.33 ERA at the level last year while walking 15.8% of batters faced at the level. Porter Hodge and Caleb Kilian are two other starting pitching prospects already on Chicago’s 40-man roster, though Hodge has yet to pitch above the Double-A level and Kilian has struggled to a 12.42 ERA across six appearances in the majors, leaving each far more likely to open the season in the minors.
If they just have the courage and decency to do the obvious right thing and add Trevor to their rotation, they will be right back in contention.
100% agree! Bauer would give them a formidable playoff rotation. For minimum guarantee, there is no reason not to sign him!
Makes a lot of sense. Cub fans aren’t fickle. Counsell will be there to set the tone, and I think Bauer can hold it together for a year.
Having said that I’d still consult with a PR firm before even making that first phone call.
You think they did that in 2016 when they added Aroldis???
Just wondering how exactly these guys are related to Bauer? What do they get out of it? Bauer is done. No team is going to P**s off half their fan base with that being women. If somebody is dumb enough to sign him the campaign to get him removed is going too be fierce and immediate. You guys should find another hero, yours is over.
Hundreds of millions of women have w huge crush on him, so it might in fact be a boon for the fanbase.
Questions like that make me weep for humanity and understand why the country is where it’s at.
Sunny in Kentucky
You said “If they just had the courage and decency to do the obvious right thing and add Trevor to their rotation”
My response: You just made a troll post and you know it.
The right thing for the owner to do is to listen to the opinions of fans and that is a good business stategy. The answer is far from obvious as fans are far from having a single mind. Trevor has a history of being rude to young women. He attacked a young girl on the social media formerly known as Twitter. He offended many teammates. He was charged with abusive misconduct with at least two or three different romantic partners, of which one of them was repuditated as a con artist with Bauer as her easy mark.
If you were not a troll, you would have written: “Several teams like the Cubs could take a gamble on Bauer, if only Bauer was smart enough to unequivocally apologize for letting his teammates and fans down by not better vetting his romantic partners, a failure that he is hardly unique in having” The power to make himself a small PR issue rather than a huge one is all in his hands to show gorwth and remorse. Offering to do some charity work for groups like Women Escaping a Violent Environment could restore his careeer but his needs to remove his veneer of smugness and arrogance and show true remorse and humility.” Trevor deerved to have the criminal charges dropped, but he still has to earn back trust from the fans and teammates.
Liberalsteve
No, it is because people understand that arguments with spouses can spiral out of control, but they can’t understand who would get their jollies punching a woman who is already unconscious.
For the record, Marcell Ozuna and Aroldis Chapman were punished too lightly. If Ozuna had been a free agent rather than under contract, he might not have received a second chance.
In between being a virtuoso, check out his YouTube, BauerOutage.
Some Cubs fans must have forgotten the Addison Russell saga. Most haven’t and neither has the front office. Move on.
Should say “charged or investigated”
100%, Manny. Character still matters. Not to mention that I don’t think Bauer is exactly known as a “great clubhouse guy”.
Of all the likely shortcomings this ’24 Cubs team may have, SP might be last on that list. Which is not to say that they are going to be the ’71 Orioles, just that it’s the most talented and deep section of the roster.
Many pitchers in Cleveland credited BAUER as the reason they improved.
Bauer may be a jerk (rumored to have Asperger’s) but he really smart, especially in regards to pitching and is more than willing to share that knowledge.
I like Bauer, wouldn’t be mad from a pure talent aspect for the Cubs to sign either him or Urias, but I believe the Cubs have more than enough pitching.
Wicks is one of the top left handed pitching prospects in the game and needs an opportunity.
Assad as a starter has an ERA just under 3. The guy has been amazing and very underrated. Even here you see fans saying it’s “Wicks job to lose” when Assad has been better and has more time under his belt.
Smyly I’m hoping can get moved.
Wesneski spend the off-season training to return to the rotation. Seems like a long shot but he has the raw stuff to do so. His control is a huge issue though. If he could control his slurve/slider/sweeper whatever we are calling it or simply keep it in his back pocket to use only on occasion he could be formidable.
If baseball allows the pre-tacked ball then watch out with Brown! Other than that, Brown needs to either learn how to mix sunscreen and rosin or he’s going to end up in the pen.
Horton, if he continues his previous success, will be in Wrigley sooner rather than later.
Cleveland is the last team that would sign Bauer.
The guy has a history with women and you want him to do community work with women.
Good point. He could do fundraisers for groups though, The incels would pay good money for him to autograph their balls.
When’s the last time an owner listened to the fans?
Hundreds of millions of women still have a huge crush on him
One way to earn that trust is to be given an opportunity by a team.
Nope.
Bauer is blackballed. For obvious reasons.
The more forgiving fans of every fanbase want their team to sign him, and then hope and pray it isn’t their daughter who swipes right on his Tinder page.
Grace and forgiveness are powerful resources that we all have at our disposal, yet rarely are they offered nowadays….
HolyCow
Forgiveness and grace as I see it, is that Trevor stops blaming others for his problems and accepts responsibility for his own actions. That enlightenment is more important than money.
You didn’t answer about the hundreds of millions of women who still have a huge crush on Trevor, Manny.
I definitely agree that one must take ownership. If you’ve happened upon any of his recent podcast interviews he sure seems to be taking the path of ownership.
I see good things for his future.
HolyCow
No, he is still going on Fox News and blaming others. He says that he is not getting a job because FO staff fear losing their jobs by suggesting it to owners. But he is making partial progress. At least now he is saying that he did things that he should not have done. But he says that if he was signed it is a three day story max and that is just silly. Even if you think it is unfair, the story would play on much longer than three days – everyone knows that.
msn.com/en-us/sports/mlb/people-don-t-want-to-sugg…
KY, where are you getting the idea that hundreds of millions of women have a huge crush on him???
Word around the campfire
KY, so nothing to support your ridiculous claim. Seems about right. Goodbye.
We don’t even have hundreds of millions of women in the U.S. (170 million total with no where near that amount being baseball fans). Must be a ton of women from other countries crushing on Bauer.
Japan, etc.
The mute button on here is awesome.
“Courage” would be to trade with the White Sox to get back Dylan Cease. It’s gonna cost Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cade Horton, Jordan Wick and Michael Arias. White Sox will help replenish a supposedly deep Cub farm system with a couple of our major league ready guys like Shane Drohan and Zach Deloach. A fair trade for Cease, who goes to the top of the rotation, and comes with the $8 million salary the Cub budget is looking for. Fair for all parties involved. Brewers slashing talent. Cardinals trying to compete with dudes like Lance Lynn …. It’s time to cash those kids in! White Sox did the heavy lifting developing Cease into a top tier pitcher.
Nobody is giving up that much for Cease.
That is what people said about Jose Quintana.
Nobody should. Of his last 4 seasons three have been below average. While that one magical season is enticing, the guy just doesn’t have the track record worthy of parting with that kinda talent.
If the Cubs signed Belli to a multi year deal with no opt-out – very unlikely especially the no opt-outs part – then PCA Arias and Hayden might be a fair deal.
Horton and Wick would not be included.
I think White Sox will trade Cease in the next three weeks, but not to the Cubs.
Given their current depth at SP, there is no reason for the Cubs to trade for Cease.
Risky move if the Sox don’t deal him now. If they get the ’23 version of Cease in the first half, that trade value falls a bit hard.
The horse has been dead for a long time. When will you stop beating it?
KY, “decency” and “right thing” don’t belong in the same sentence with Bauer.
Lol, a Cubs article. Haven’t seen much of these this winter. Is Jed Hoyer even alive at this point??Since the season ended, the Cubs are definitely worse, and the Reds are definitely better. The Brewers will probably take a step back with that rotation, but should still be a pretty decent team. Cards are pretty old, and have one of the worst managers in the league, so I have no idea how they’ll be, but they certainly threw some money at their SP, and their big boys can still hit. Should be better than last year, I imagine. Pirates are Pirates. All in all, should be a fairly boring division, and right now I think it’s Cincy to lose, Mil and Stl to chase, Pit and Chi to trade guys in July.
Your welcome for the dynasty.
The Reds did almost nothing significant this winter. They’re not better than the Cubs
The Reds did a lot this winter. They greatly improved their bullpen, brought in a potentially high upside SP in Montas, and another solid back of the rotation guy in Martinez. They also signed Candelario. At least they actually make an effort.
The Reds wasted away one of the best pure hitters of our generation.
I hate to say this, but they have no one in that rotation who has given a full injury free season in the big leagues last season. Many are only five inning pitchers, if that. Not to mention no top of the line starter to anchor the rotation and no reliable setup guy to get them to Diaz.
Instead of really solving that issue, they took half measures on pitching and signed an infielder they didn’t need. They had plenty of opportunity and still do as guys are still unsigned.
The front office seems to think they can hit their way out of trouble once again, and that’s why they will miss the playoffs once again and waste another year of this young team’s window.
Not really. The most competitive The Reds have been in the last 30 years were during Votto’s prime seasons.
I’m a Cub fan, and this is what I’ll say first: the NL Central will likely be very competitive in 2024. Also, please remember that in 2023, the Pirates were 8-5 against the Reds, 9-4 against the Cardinals, and 3-10 against the Cubs. The Pirates will have O’Neil Cruz back in 2024, and they have Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes (2023 Gold Glove winner), a few young players who will play better in 2024, and they’ve created an improved roster this offseason.
I’m not suggesting that the Reds haven’t improved their team in the offseason, but I find it particularly interesting that Sonny Gray decided to sign with the Cardinals instead of having a reunion with the Reds.
The Cubs aren’t done yet signing/trading for additional players, which could include Cody Bellinger and perhaps a starting pitcher. Three of the Cub players won a Gold Glove in 2023, and the Reds aren’t exactly known for their Gold Glove-caliber defense.
Try to see the bigger picture if you can. It’s certainly not the Reds’ division to lose (not at this point in time).
While expressing a few targeted points in my post, I failed to mention the Brewers (that wasn’t my intention). Although they no longer have Burnes and it’s unclear if they’re moving other players, they still have talented players on the team currently. Also, the Brewers were 10-3 against the Reds in 2023. You just can’t assume that they’ll automatically be taking a step back in 2024.
Milwaukee lived on SP. 2/3 of those starters are gone to injury and trade. Could be a rough year for Mil.
I understand your point to a degree, but the Brewers will likely have a stronger offense this season (Hoskins, Chourio, etc.).
I’m not sure the Brewers would’ve signed Hoskins if they really thought they couldn’t effectively compete this year.
You should check what the Brewers record was in games pitched by Burnes and Woodruff. I suspect the answer may surprise you!
Cubs won 1 more game than the Reds in 2023. They lost 3 of the Top 50 FA (#2 Bellinger, #13 Candelario, and #18 Snell). To date they have added 2 top 50 FA ( #10 Imanaga and #46 Neris). On the other hand, the Reds lost 0 Top 50 FA but added 3 (#13 Candelario, #32 Martinez, and #44 Montas. Simplistic apppraisal of the situation, but relevant. Surely in terms of player WAR added and/or subtracted, Reds come out ahead-so far. As a Reds fan, I find it somewhat interesting Snell signed with the Yankees, as opposed to staying with the Cubs. BTW, it’s just possible that the Cubs (and Brewers) are trying to transistion to a younger, less expensive model- relying on their minor league system to supply almost all of their players-not free agency. Kind of like the Reds and Pirates already have.
Stroman not Snell- sorry
Let’s stop on the Candelario front—outside the first three to five games after the trade, he was pretty brutal for the Cubs.
Surely, attributed to the back injury, but it wasn’t like he helped at all in September.
And it looks to me, that the Cardinals are slowly becoming the St Louis Royals. (No offense to the Royals – they are improving).
Cincy to lose? I think the division is wide open with no clear taker. At this point, the Pirates even have a chance to win the division this year. NL Central is the weakest division in MLB. AL Central isn’t far off but have a couple clear winners in the division. Cleveland, Twins, and Royals seem to be the front runners of that division. Tigers and White Sox are both in uncharted territory with no real indication of what direction they are going this year and onto the next. They both are in the middle of competing for the AL Central or being at the bottom of the league. That is why I believe NL Central is worse off because there is no clear path of who will win the division. All 5 teams can win it at this point. Heck, may see 2 NL central teams in the postseason as a division winner and the other as a wild card winner. Pirates just look less competitive on paper at the moment and the underdogs of the NL Central. Not saying they will win the central, but they will be hanging around with the division for majority (if not all) of the season. Reds are everyone’s choice for the division at the moment. We shall see though, it can be any team right now.
I’m guessing you don’t keep up on the AL Central. Minnesota and Cleveland have done little to make themselves better this offseason, and Cleveland could still trade Bieber and be left with a young rotation primed for regression. KC will finish closer to the White Sox than the other three but are improved. The Tigers have the best chance to knock Minnesota from top spot with great pitching and new faces on offense (Canha, Keith, Malloy, P. Meadows). Like the NL Central it should be tight but it’s more likely to be a two team race, with Cleveland perhaps having a chance if everything breaks right.
Zach… Nothing is less convincing than the ramblings of a homer.
Rondon….nothing could mean less to me than your opinion of my post.
I think it’s Wicks job to lose. But I also think they could make a trade between now and the start of the season. I bet the White Sox would like to have Wicks and his 6 years of team control. Cubs have outfielders too which the White Sox need.
The White Sox have no one of value that the cubs want or need. White Sox will want more for Cease than the Cubs original gave him up for. They’ll want like 4 of the 7 top 100 players that the cubs have.
I don’t think the Cubs need Cease but to play the trade game, Wicks, Brown and Alcantara I think would be fair but still hesitant due to the Cubs lack of need.
drasco, what are you smoking? Obviously you haven’t seen Cease pitch much this past season. That would be a huge overpay for 2 years of Cease. Cease was a middling starter last year.
Cease is a high three/low two pitcher controllable for two years, it’s a fair package.
Just about every single white Sox player had bad years last year, speaking more about the organization than the players. Cease is talented, has posted TOR results and I’m not worried about last season.
Again, however, I’m not interested in trading for Cease.
drasco, I don’t see any world in which, Cease is worth TWO top 100 players (Wicks, Alcantara). You yourself say he is only possibly a #3 SP.
Cease has a surplus value of over 30 million, he’s a high three/low 2 with two years of control.
Maybe you living in a different “world” than I do but your world is apparently delusional if you cannot see Ceases value.
It would be foolish to trade any of those 3. Let alone all 3 of them for only Cease. The last thing the cubs need is Kevin Alcantara to turn into a superstar player. And the Cubs reply don’t need a starter. Cade Horton will be up hopefully this year. I would offer Brennan Davis,matt Mervis, Caleb Killian and Ed Howard for Cease plus a bullpen piece. The white Sox don’t have any prospects worth looking at where he would likely be blocked.
I’d trade my Bronco straight up for a new Lamborghini but the dealership wouldn’t.
Is that supposed to be a point, your making. Seems to be coming up a bit weak.
Is your Bronco white?
Grey
That’s an awful trade package honestly.
I’m going to break this down pretty simple, over the past seasons, Dylan Cease posted a lower FIP than Corbin Burns, both in 22 and 23. Burns landed two top 100 prospects (Ortiz 99 and Hall 97) and a competitive balance pick (34th overall) Burns is getting paid nearly double what Cease is earning next season and is only controllable for this season.
So to answer the question, Cease is worth two top 100 prospects and then some.
That joke might have gone over your head. If it was white you could tell a gullible car salesman it was OJ’s Bronco.
White Sox have Robert. Instead of paying Bellinger they could trade for both Cease and Robert who will make roughly the same amount of money. And they have the prospects to get a deal like that done if they wanted to.
Too much prospect cost. A healthy Robert is better than Bellinger but he comes with too much risk. Cubs are a large market team, I’d take the financial risk of Bellinger over losing prospects for an equally risky Robert.
Bellinger is super risky. And the Cubs have the prospects. You think Robert is risky? Bellinger could be Hayward 2.0. Bellinger could take the franchise out of contention for half a decade.
Robert in Cubs blue as the DH wouldn’t be the worst thing. Still a hard pass if they have to overpay for either one or both.
He would be the centerfielder dude not a DH.
They have PCA for CF. and a also if they re-sign Bellinger he would be there until pca is called up. So no Robert would not play CF for the Cubs. If it ever happened.
If Robert was smart he would soon ask for a trade. He’s never going to win with the white Sox. Their window for winning shut 3 years ago.
They would need to trade Armstrong to get Robert. He would be the headlining piece.
Yes Robert is incredibly risky, how many low on base people last in the Majors? On top of which Robert is hurt all the time. If it wasn’t for last season, Robert’s contract extension would look awful. Robert is also only two years younger than Bellinger so if the Cubs could land Bellinger at 5/125 he would be a much safer investment then Robert at 4/65 while given up at least 4 top prospects, one of which being Crow-Armstrong.
Also, stop using the dated and equally lame 2.0 comments. Nothing is more eye roll cringy than that, maybe “my guy” which is also a ridiculous comment.
I don’t know who Hayward is. Never heard of the guy honestly. Heyward I’ve heard of.
Bellingers deal is not going to take anyone out of contention. 25 million is not that much money even if Bellinger is a complete bust. Heyward never took the Cubs out of contention, it was the fact they just weren’t a well built team for a long run. And what really took the Cubs out of contention was doing what you suggested, trading away their prospects. Torres is one thing, brought in Chapman and we don’t win a title without him but dealing Cease and Jimenez for Quintana killed them. Also, not trading for Verlander despite Verlander openly saying he wanted to go to Chicago.
Heyward was bad and people love to point the finger but had Epstein not made other ridiculous and boneheaded moves, it would have been fine. (Tyler Chatwood, Brandon Morrow, Descelso, etc). Cubs also did a pretty bad job drafting.
You have to admit, some people’s inability to think logically and fill in gaps is pretty humorous on this board.
Why indeed would we need Robert if we had PCA and Bellinger…
It would be stupid to trade pca. Robert hasn’t exactly always been Healthy. I’m not trading pca unless it nets the cubs who ever the #1 pitching prospect on the top 100 plus a few others.
Wow you criticized me because I spelled Hayward with an E instead of an A?
Off to mute you go. Peace. Go ahead and reply. I won’t read it.
Hey you can keep Armstrong and all the other prospects. But right now the Cubs aren’t good enough to compete. The division is wide open the Cubs would be instant favorites with a big trade or signing or two. But Bellinger is super risky. You can gamble with making a trade or gamble making a big signing. Either way there are no sure things except as of right now the Cubs are not a contender.
I didn’t criticize you, if you’re that sensitive so be it.
Wicks with Assad, Smyly and Wesneski all coming out of the bullpen
Assad is vastly underrated.
The Cubs have gone backward. The players are worse, and the manager is worse, and their record will be worse.
Unless the Cubs bring Bellinger back you’re correct they will be worse. But saying the manager is worse, you couldn’t be more wrong. David Ross was a terrible manager and he cost the Cubs a playoff appearance last season.
ib… My, what a deep, well thought out comment.
The Cubs have a better manager. They got a starter. And got a few bullpen pieces. And even filled a hole for 1B. How did they get worse?
Counsel is an upgrade over Ross. We can argue later whether it is a slight upgrade or a big upgrade, but not a subtraction.
Shota replaces what Marcus brought to the table last year. Shota has a higher floor and a lower ceiling than Marcus. It’s a wash.
Alzolay, Wicks, Assad, Amaya all have more experience.
Big key is lost Belli and added Busch. That is how Cubs got worse. Even if Busch 2024 is as good as Belli 2024, Busch probably is not as good as Belli 2023.
Cubs need to add one more bat, preferably Belli and Chapman with optouts. Maybe someday PCA will learn to hit. I am confident that Shaw will be ready Opening Day 2026, mid-2024 is also possible. I take Shaw over PCA.
The only option is that you believe Morel can play defensive 3B to Counsel’s satisfaction – which I don’t – then Cubs could skip Belli and Chapman and sign Jorge or JD as a DH..
Wicks will either be the #5 starter here or the #1 starter at Iowa. Assad might be the guy, He gives the Cubs another RH starter in a rotation stacked with Lefties. Smyly will either be the highest Bullpen guy on the staff or hopefully traded to Oakland for some Colosseum toilet water if they’ll take his salary. Hoyer’s doing just fine, All the FA’s left will be vastly overpaid for what they’re worth and I’d rather just say no thank you. Stay the course play the kids and see what’s what.
Snell and Montgomery want too much money, I agree let the this batch of pitchers figure it out.
It’s easy to forget just how good Smyly looked early last year. Spring training will tell us a lot, although I’d love to see Smyly be a strong lefty out of the pen.
Smyly is good in small doses. I don’t know if it’s an expose thing or an endurance thing but he seems to have a five start shelf life.
I have Assad number one but maybe Wicks takes it out of camp. Assad has been fantastic as a starter for the Cubs.
I disagree about the remaining players price tag, I think the longer the offseason goes the more likely we grab Chapman on a short term deal with the reward outweighing the risk. Same with Bellinger.
John Fisher is too cheap to acquire Smyly’s salary. Smyly offers zero surplus value. But Smyly can be used as an innings eater.
Due to his contract, Smyly is more locked on the roster than any player not named Dansby or Steele.
I disagree, the Cubs could probably ship Smyly out of town if they desired if they attached a guy like Brennen Davis or similarly “intriguing enough” prospect.
I think if Smyly was a free agent this season, he’d probably get a deal similar to his salary but I’d be happy to ship off him and open up two 40 man spots.
The A’s would take Smyly because They wouldn’t actually be paying his whole salary because they’d dump him at the deadline to somebody. So he would only cost them half of 11 million bucks.
So,did Bauer really do worse things than Aroldis Chapman? Didn’t the cubs get that guy? Is it because we as liberals have lower standards for non white males?
I’ll bite. Bauer has a court case pending still, he said himself in that interview he did. He’s not pitching in 2024 since that needs to be cleared, same with Julio Urias, he’s got an investigation ongoing. Both these guys need to settle their legal affairs before any MLB team commits a contract to them.
As a Cubs fan, my projections are
Reds
Cubs
Brewers
Cardinals
Pirates
If the Cubs add Belli, I pull them even with the Reds.
Hoskins was a nice add for Brewers, but after Peralta and Miley, the Brewers have a lot of question marks. Gasser? And if Adams or Devin are traded, well then Chourio, Frelick and Mitchell will not be enough to pick up sloack in 2024.
I think the Pirates surprise a bit, and Milwaukee is going to have a really tough year. Mil is going to struggle with SP for the first time in many years, and they have never been an offensive juggernaut.
Totally agree with Cincy on top, at the moment.
Sadly, I see zero wild cards from the Central. I like the Phillies, Diamondbacks and Padres as the three wild card teams.
Atlanta 98-64
Phillies 88-74
Marlins 77-85
Mets 76-86
Nationals 69-93
Dodgers 101-59
Diamondbacks 87-75
Padres 85-77
Giants 70-92
Rockies 63-99
Reds 86-76
Cubs 84-78 (Belli +3 or Chap +2)
Brewers 81-81
Cardinals 74-88
Pirates 73-89
True, 86 or 87 wins will take the division once again. I would hope the Reds have enough pitching as the kids mature but the Cubs and even the Brewers still seem to have better established horses there.
On offense, the Cubs were 11th in MLB in 2023 in run differential (+96). The Reds were 19th (-38). On defense in 2023, the Cubs were 6th in MLB in Defensive Runs Saved (+36). The Reds were 28th (-38 again).
The Cubs already have a very solid defense that may improve even more this year. If they sign Bellinger and if he, Suzuki, Hoerner, Happ, Morel, etc. hit well, and the pitching staff pitches well (i.e. Steele, Imanaga, Taillon, Neris, etc.), I think the Cubs possibly have the best chance of winning the division in 2024. The Reds would have to make up an enormous amount of ground on both offense and defense to win the NL Central this season.
Also, if the Cubs steal more bases this year, they’ll be in even better shape.
My unpopular opinions:
ARIZONA takes the division out west.
Mets grab a wild card spot (Mendoza wins Manager of the year)
Yankees miss the playoffs
Phillies miss the playoffs.
**Tigers win the central (although I think most jumped on board this one)
Cubs are still an incomplete team, although I really like their pitching over anyone else in the division. Central really is a complete toss up but I like the Cardinals a whole lot more than most. I could easier see them take the top spot
I agree that Cubs pitching the class of NL Central – by a wide margin.
I think having the Reds’ young bats for the full season, and having more than they need, we will see an explosion.
The race is close because Reds pitching does not impress me much.
Before Cardinals acquired Sonny Gray, I had the Pirates ahead of the Cardinals.
Assad and Wicks will both be making starts this season giving the Cubs six starters and giving Imanaga a break from the continuious 5 day rotation. Understand me, I don’t think they will have a six man rotation, just throwing Assad in the mix to give Imanaga a break now and then.
That makes sense, I understood what you meant. It makes sense to give Shota a break while he adjusts to an MLB rotation.
I think you have to give Assad first dibs based on track record; he’s consistently pitched like a #2 starter. However, it wouldn’t be surprising either to see Wicks replace Imanaga as the rotation’s lefty.
The Cubs have some question marks in the rotation, but a lot of high ceiling depth backing it up. There could be a lot of turnover.
Smyly was fantastic in Detroit’s BP when they had a full rotation of Verlander, Scherzer, Price, Porcello, and Fister. Plus, he could never stay healthy. So they should let the kids fight it out and put him in a lefty setup role, IMHO.
Barring injury Wicks will be the 5th starter with Assad and possibly Smyly taking some starts when needed. If Taillon has a better season the Cubs starters could be a strength of the team in 2024.
Cubs are not going to sign Bellinger. Hoyer is not giving the length or the money, and even if his price drops, and remember it only takes one stupid team, Hoyer is only in for less than 5 years and Boras won’t go for that.
Boras may take his remaining free agents all the way into the May-July timeframe. I’m guessing the strategy is to expect key players to get injured, but how long will it take these guys to ramp up? Squeezing every penny out of the market can backfire, and it has.
rtc
“Hoyer is only in for less than 5 years”
I wish fans were knowledgeable enough to understand that
1) the years don’t matter as much as people think
2) teams prefer longer contracts and players shorter ones (PV being equal).
Blake Snell could be a decent 5th starter.
As is right now, this is not a good team. Hoyer is counting on Counsell to make the difference, but I believe he is overvaluing the impact of a manager in terms of wins and losses. Boras likes to deal directly with the owner, and Ricketts won’t do that. Boras is making this personal – he knows Cubs got cheap production out of Belli last year, and he wants them to have to pay up now. But Hoyer is so damn stubborn.
With what Bellinger will be getting paid, he should figure out how to to pitch and could be the 5th starter. Its not that hard to be a pitcher.
Stroman leaving was a gift to the Cubs.
^^^StroME ^^^. Fixed it!
FanGraphs DC projections
Wicks 4.43
Assad 4.59
Smyly 4.36
Wesny 4.40
So, yeah… Pretty close
Decision might be made on things like options and service time as much as on talent
With the need in the Cubs bullpen for left handed help, it makes sense to have Smyly and Wicks start in the pen and have Assad as the 5th starter at least to begin the season.
Cub fans, media, bloggers and podcasters are the worst GM’s in baseball. Thank God for Hoyer.
I love dating Cub fans because just like their team they are never expecting a ring! Lol
I used to date them for that reason too. Then I married a CA girl, I forgot all about those whiney, spoiled, give me constant attention, tell me Im beautiful Chicago girls.
I CANNOT WAIT FOR BASEBALL TO ACTUALLY START SO THIS ISNT MY ENTERTAINMENT…