The National League Central is arguably the tightest division in the majors right now. That’s subjective but borne out by projection systems. The FanGraphs projected standings have all five teams currently slated for between 83 and 77 wins, the smallest spread from first to last out of the six divisions. The PECOTA standings at Baseball Prospectus aren’t quite as tight, with a spread of 11.7 games from first to last, but that’s still narrower than any other division in the league.
Last year, the Brewers took the division fairly easily, going 92-70 and finishing nine games up on the second-place Cubs. But a lot has changed since then and there could still be more changes to come. The “Boras Four” of Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger remain unsigned, as do several other free agents. One of those players joining an NL Central club could change the calculation but let’s take a look at where things stand now, in order of last year’s standings.
Brewers: 92-70 in 2023, FG projects 80 wins in 2024, PECOTA 79
The reigning champions have undergone some significant changes, particularly in their rotation. Brandon Woodruff underwent shoulder surgery late last year, with the rehab putting his 2024 season in jeopardy. He was non-tendered and re-signed but won’t be a factor until late in the upcoming season, if at all. On top of that, the club traded Corbin Burnes to the Orioles, meaning they are now without both of their co-aces from recent years.
That makes the rotation clearly weaker than it has been in previous seasons, even though they did acquire some reinforcements. DL Hall came over in the Burnes trade and the Brewers will give him a chance to earn a rotation job. They also re-signed Wade Miley and Colin Rea in addition to bringing in Jakob Junis and Joe Ross to back up Freddy Peralta, who has now been vaulted to the top spot. Prospects Jacob Misiorowski and Robert Gasser could push for roles during the season.
While the starting rotation has clearly been diminished, the lineup should be better. They didn’t lose any core pieces from last year’s position player mix while they have signed free agents Rhys Hoskins and Gary Sánchez for some extra thump. Prospect Jackson Chourio should be up to make his debut this year while other young players like Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell and Brice Turang will hopefully continue to take steps forward. Joey Ortiz, who came over in the Burnes deal alongside Hall, could seize a role on the infield.
Cubs: 83-79 in 2023, FG projects 80 wins in 2024, PECOTA 80.8
The Cubs have been retooling for a few years but just narrowly missed a return to the postseason in 2023. Their finished 83-79, just one game behind the Diamondbacks and Marlins, who got the last two Wild Card spots. They then saw Bellinger, Jeimer Candelario and Marcus Stroman become free agents, subtracting two regulars from the lineup and a starter from the rotation. Candelario since jumped to the Reds and Stroman to the Yankees, though Bellinger is still out there.
In the rotation, Stroman has effectively been replaced by the signing of Shota Imanaga. The Cubs signed him in January and it’s hoped that he can supply at least some mid-rotation production to make up for the loss of Stroman, slotting in next to Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Kyle Hendricks. A bounceback from Taillon could arguably make the rotation even better this year. The same could be said about a step forward from rookie Jordan Wicks, who debuted last year.
In the lineup, the Cubs are hoping that Michael Busch can be a difference maker. Acquired from the Dodgers in an offseason trade, he has always hit well in the minors but was blocked from seizing a role on his previous club. He’ll take over the first base spot, which was a bit of a hole for the Cubs last year. Bringing back Bellinger to center field still seems possible, but until it happens, the plan appears to be to count on Pete Crow-Armstrong to seize a job. The youngster is considered a great defender but his bat is questionable. Mike Tauchman is on hand if PCA doesn’t make a case for himself.
Signing Chapman to take over third could be a logical move but it’s also possible the club could slot Christopher Morel there. He has an exciting amount of power in his bat and his throwing arm, but concerns about his defense and propensity for strikeouts. Still, the bar is not too high for him to be better than guys like Nick Madrigal or Patrick Wisdom.
Reds: 82-80 in 2023, FG projects 79 wins in 2024, PECOTA 78.7
A surge of young position player talent was almost enough to vault the Reds into the playoffs last year. They did that despite a team-wide ERA of 4.83 and and 5.43 mark from their starting rotation. No significant contributors to the 2023 club reached free agency, so even just a bit of internal improvement could make them a contender.
But the Reds weren’t just going to rely on their incumbent options, as they have been fairly active this offseason. They added Candelario to their position player mix despite already having plenty of bats for their lineup. That should give them some cover for any of their young players suffering some regression or an injury.
They also bolstered the pitching staff which, as mentioned, was an issue last year. Free agents Frankie Montas, Nick Martínez, Emilio Pagán and Brent Suter were all signed to the roster. Montas is coming off a lengthy injury absence but was quite effective the last time he was healthy. Martínez could be a back-end addition for the rotation or he might wind up in the bullpen with Pagán and Suter. They could also get better just via health, as no one on the club logged 150 innings last year as each of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft spent time on the IL, while Andrew Abbott didn’t debut until midseason.
Pirates: 76-86 in 2023, FG projects 77 wins in 2024, PECOTA 73
Somewhat similar to the Reds, the Pirates also rode a wave of young talent last year, though it didn’t have the same staying power. They were in first place in the division as late as June 15 but faded as the season wore on and finished outside contention.
They were facing almost no roster losses, as their most significant free agents from 2023 were Andrew McCutchen and Vince Velasquez. McCutchen re-signed while Velasquez only made eight starts last year anyway due to elbow surgery. But they faced other challenges as right-hander Johan Oviedo and catcher Endy Rodríguez both required UCL surgery this offseason and will miss all of 2024.
With Rodríguez out, the club is hoping Henry Davis can pivot back behind the plate and take over. They signed veteran Yasmani Grandal as a bit of insurance in case things don’t work out with Davis. They grabbed a couple of veteran starters as well in Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales, hoping that duo can over for the losses of Oviedo and Velasquez as well as the struggles of Roansy Contreras. The impending debut of prospect Paul Skenes could also help in that department as well, with Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler perhaps not far behind.
The lineup hasn’t drastically changed, with Rowdy Tellez brought in as a bounceback candidate. Perhaps their most impactful lineup upgrade could be the health of Oneil Cruz, who missed most of 2023 due ankle surgery. They also signed Aroldis Chapman to help David Bednar form a lockdown late-inning duo.
Cardinals: 71-91 in 2023, FG projects 83 wins in 2024, PECOTA 84.7
Many predicted the Cards to win the division last year but it clearly did not happen. Plenty of things went wrong, particularly on the pitching side of things, and they ended up in the basement. The team-wide ERA of 4.83 was better than just five teams in the majors, with the 5.08 rotation ERA even worse. Adam Wainwright’s swan song turned out to be ear-splitting while Steven Matz and Jack Flaherty also struggled. Depth guys like Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Jake Woodford were all bad to varying degrees.
Remaking the rotation was the clear priority this winter and they have been active in that department. They quickly signed Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson at the start of the offseason to replace Flaherty, Montgomery and Wainwright. Sem Robberse, Adam Kloffenstein, Tekoah Roby and Drew Rom were all acquired at last year’s deadline and could make the emergency depth stronger. Victor Santos was added this offseason as part of the Tyler O’Neill trade.
Not too much has changed on the position player side of things. As mentioned, O’Neill was shipped out but the club is hoping to replace him internally. The emergence of Masyn Winn at shortstop means that Tommy Edman is probably now an outfielder full-time, assuming Winn produces better results than he did in his debut last year. Bounceback performances, particularly from Nolan Arenado, will be key. In the bullpen, Jordan Hicks and Chris Stratton were traded last summer. The Cards traded for Andrew Kittredge and signed Keynan Middleton to try to make up for those two departures.
Compared to the other divisions in the big leagues, this one is the hardest to decide on a clear favorite. The Brewers are the defending champs but have lost their two aces. Can the extra offense make up for that? Was it a rare blip that the Cardinals were so bad last year? Have the Cubs done enough to get over the hump? Can the Reds or Pirates get enough improvement from their young players to surge ahead?
What do you think? Have your say in the poll below!
5 teams that will all hover around .500.
It very well could be cluster of 4 or 5 come early August., and then thin out by the end of the month.
I doubt this division is decided come May. Though the Cards might be counted out in April with that schedule.
If the Cardinals survive that early schedule anywhere near .500 they will be tough to beat.
Offense getting put to the fire for wins early will keep me dialed in tight for a while. Goldy 350 home run milestone early in the season and Nado likely 350 later in the season. Too many younger guys to list that may pop. Gorman slugging and continuing Noot career storyline my tops. Reminds me to see if any new Japanese commercials are out.
Goldy didn’t exactly set the baseball world on fire last year probably because his age is catching up to him but anything can happen.
I just wouldn’t be surprised
It’s like the division no one wants. The Brewers trade away their ace, the Reds fail to bolster their starting staff around their young talent, the Cubs lose Bellinger and also could use a starter, and the Pirates have one starter and 4 question marks in their rotation
Even though I’m not overly enamored with Gray or Lynn, at least the Cardinals tried to do something.
Reds don’t need to bolster their starting staff when they have 8 pitchers for 4-5 spots. Do you send down Greene, Lodolo, Abbott for someone who was great last year, but might suck this year? In my humble opinion you roll with the guys you have, and bolster the hitters so you don’t lose 2-0 games.
That is why they predicted 82 wins again for the Reds. They follow Einstein’s definition of insanity.
None of those 8 have produced a full injury free season in the big leagues last season.
Sucks to be a reds fan. I felt that way for 20 years in the 90s and 00s as a Dodger fan. At least you have beautiful blonde German women to make up for having disappointing teams.
Which is why you have 8 instead of 4-5. Greene, Lodolo, Abbott, Richardson etc will not develop if you keep them in the minors pitching to triple A hitters. How often do teams sign a guy for 20-25 million a year because they’ve had success and the wheels fall off the next year? I was all in on the Reds signing Sonny Gray or Wade Miley, and maybe Lorenzen because they aren’t super spectacular, but give you quality innings. Slow and steady. But signing a mediocre starter for huge money or trading 4 guys for Dylan Cease is madness. I think the Reds are doing the best they can with what they have and they have quite a few quality starters right now. You could always change to “This one belongs to (insert Cubs, Brewers, Cards, Pirates) or just watch the Reds win the division with all the talent they have this year.
3 of those 4 will not be in the minors in any case and Richardson proved he is not quite ready.
They will not win the division for the same reason they didn’t last year.
A real fan doesn’t change teams like they change shorts like the Twitter generation. If I wasn’t a long time Reds fan, I wouldn’t care and wouldn’t demand better.
My first ballgame was in 1966 at Crosley field. Been a Reds fan ever since. Been there through all the tragedies and triumphs and I’m to old to change now. I’m just grateful to have a team and believe if Marge hadn’t bought them they would have moved just like the Royals. But we also have to be practical and the Reds will never compete financially with the Yankees or Dodgers unless MLB institutes a hard salary cap
Don’t mind him, he is a sour old fart
The embarrassment of it all is that it appears Kansas City is making better decisions than the Cardinals. At least Dad is dead and can’t see this
That’s a lofty goal for the Pirates.
why is that @case?
The Bucs increased their win total by 14 games last season and did so without Oneil Cruz, who only played in a handful games
They have a premier closer in David Bednar who tied for the league lead in saves with 39.
This season they will have one of the best bullpens in baseball and have a core of young players with one year under their belts
They all suck. You can have NL Central All-Stars, and they still wouldn’t beat LA.
LA has to prove they are more than just a regular season team. Fail miserably in postseason. Bragging whennthey are failures with that payroll and getting schooled by DBacks
All of the money that the Dodgers spend on players and they didn’t win the World Series last year meaning money doesn’t always equate victories so spare me your prognosis
It’s funny. No matter the sport, “super teams” almost never end up as champs. The Dodgers remind me of the NBA’s Brooklyn Nets with Durant, Irving, Harden. I hope the Dodgers have about as much success as that team did
Same thing happened to the Braves. Baseball is tricky you need to see pitches and not take 7 days off between games.
So I take it as a fluke both LA and ATL got knocked out early.
You can thank neanderthal Manfred for yet another blunder as commissioner.
ah, that old chestnut
blogs.fangraphs.com/layoffs-havent-hindered-playof…
3 day lay offs are different than 7 day lay offs. Apples and oranges young child
dodgers and braves had a 5 game layoff in October 2023.
Where are you getting 3 from?
Shadow: All 12 teams should be seeded. That way teams like the Braves and Dodgers won’t likely be knocked out in the first two rounds. The regular season has to count for something.
Exactly avenger except Manfred is a spineless fool who can’t make important decisions right.
Letting the Astros off easy.
Changing the pitch clock, changing it again.
Ducking up the Jerseys.
No excuses it should be a great season for the good teams
“No excuses” but you said it’s a “fluke” that your Dodgers got eliminated.
You could also say that they simply don’t perform as well in the playoffs. Since the 2020 World Series championship, 7-12 in the playoffs, 317-169 regular season.
Manfred is a mouthpiece for the owners. The punishment for the Astros is what the owners wanted to be.
The pitch clock is here. More and more players have played with it all through the minors so it is. No big deal. I love the faster pace.
The Unis are not Manfred ‘s singular decision. Many more than he had to sign off on it.
@Shadow, Dodgers were bound to get rolled in playoffs. Their rotation was decimated and their pitching predictably fell flat on its face. Only one starter made it to 3rd inning going 3.1 innings. The other 2 starting pitchers didn’t get out of the 2nd. That usually doesn’t cut it come Oct
Loll! Even the Pirates were 8-5 against the mighty Dodgers the last 2 years……
And the Dodgers were 5-1 vs the Brewers last year
It’s almost as if W-L in a small number of games doesn’t tell you anything about which team is actually better
So the playoffs are pointless?
Wire, the playoffs aren’t pointless, but the best teams don’t always win in the playoffs. And that’s why judging teams solely by championships is ignoring the greatness of teams that demonstrate success over a full season. Both things are worth celebrating, though a World Series title is the biggest accomplishment.
WtW
“So the playoffs are pointless?”
For determining who the best team is, yes
Outside a 60 game season the Dodgers have done nothing
DC
“Outside a 60 game season the Dodgers have done nothing”
Truly the dumbest taek
The Dodgers have won the most games in baseball over the last 11 years.
So did the Braves in the 90s they were able to win one title too. Regular season means nothing it’s what you do in the playoffs that make you a great team! A dynasty!! Wild card teams win titles all the time. Win 110 games and get swept in the first round all you want!!! That’s great lol!
You’re as sharp as a marble….with that comment.
LA, we can count on unfulfilled expectations and choking, it’s what they do.
You’re right. LA , can buy anything they want. They buy wins every year. What’s the excitement of buying your ticket to the playoffs annually ?
The Dodgers are expected to win at least 100+ games, win the division and make the PO. But that’s not good enough. If they don’t win the WS, their season is a complete failure. Adding Ohtani, Yamamoto and Glasnow only adds to the pressure. They might win 120 games during the regular season. But if they don’t win it all, none of the above will matter.
avenger
“The Dodgers are expected to win at least 100+ games”
By whom?
“win the division and make the PO. ”
Yes
“If they don’t win the WS, their season is a complete failure.”
Nah
Such dumb comments
Do you read comments by, like, Red Six fans? They have a recent championship. They are frustrated and unhappy
Dodger fans here aren’t
Dodger fans here are happier than those of most every other fan base
Because baseball is entertainment. And the Dodgers are entertaining. They have stars. They are competitive EVERY YEAR. This is the model franchise in baseball.
It’s WS champs or broke for the doyers. You’re delusional if you argue that ownership and/or fans are content with their 100+ win regular seasons. Ownership spending 1.3 BIL this offseason should make that clear enough.
SC
Yawn
Your casual-fan take is boring as hell
Absolutely correct! Maybe the best team on paper in the history of the game! No title? The season will go down as a fail!! Don’t worry I’m sure a weak 84 win team in a weak division will step up and take your title spot again!
Model franchise? That’s a stretch considering the amount of money they spend that produces zero championship
There probably isn’t a model franchise in today’s baseball world
Perhaps the Orioles because their talent is mostly home grown and good player development
lmcmt
“What’s the excitement of buying your ticket to the playoffs annually ?”
Being in the playoffs. Having a chance at a championship. The excitement of do-or-die baseball.
Those kinds of things
If you want to make the argument that missing the playoffs is more exciting…the floor is yours
Dodgers are by no means a perfect team. They bought a playoff birth but the rest is a crap shoot.
Except in a best of 5 series in October, in which even the last place team in the division would win.
Really? Last year the Dodgers were 2-4 against the Reds. Squeaked by the Cubs, Pirates and Cards with 4-3 records against each. Only did well against the Brewers, 5-1..
Love the euphemism “the tightest division” instead of the blunt “worst division in all of baseball.
Says the guy with no team affiliation
Unless they were maybe to face the Dodgers in the playoffs after ENDURING a FULL MLB season all the way to the title; something the Dodgers actually haven’t been able to do in over 35 years, aside from one SHORTENED asterisk season
Predicting and handicapping baseball is incredibly hard and usually a waste of time. I remember all the so-called “experts” who last year predicted the Padres would overtake the Dodgers and rule the NL West. All that being said, I do believe the NL Central is completely wide open and I can see any of 3 teams winning it.
I picked the Brewers, but having traded Burnes really even the odds amongst all of them. Cubs need to have a lot of their young guys take a step forward, and that’s asking a lot of young players still developing such as PCA. If the Cardinsls outfield gets figured out, that goes a long way plus getting better performance from their starters. Reds and Pirates need to have their young core step forward too, so it’s really wide open. Might come down to which team decides to upgrade at the trade deadline.
I tip my cap to the Red’s great rebuild; I would want that GM job today if made available. Also rooting for the Pirates to continue upward! I’d be happy if either team signed Snell.
The Pirates are definitely signing Snell…Ian Snell, that is, who went 38-53 in parts of six seasons with Pittsburgh (2004-2009). At age 42, he will slot in right behind Mitch Keller.
I went with the reds…though something tells me it’s the brewers. I think with good health though the reds pitching prevails. Trading burns was the difference for me.
Reds
Brewers
Cubs
Cards
Pirates
Cubs are the wild card because they could still add some good players. If they do I may move them up top since I don’t think there is a big gap between them and the others. To be fair I don’t think there is a wrong answer. Obviously the pirates are the longest shot.
Brewers will repeat. Will miss Burnes and Woodruff but after all Woodruff missed 90% of last season. They have a more highly rated farm system which does not include their previously highly rated rookies from last season. Finally no more Counsell.
Woody started all of 11 games last year, and the Brewers were 18-15 in games started by Burnes.
What a silly knock on Counsell. You’re gonna find out how much you miss him this season.
It may be a sort of weak division but it will be a fun division to watch for a playoff race. Very possible that all 5 teams could be fighting this out into September. But who know, one team may pull away from the res because it is baseball. I think the team that stands out the most though is the Cubs. I think they will take the division.
Yep. It’s like MLB’s beer league softball division. Not pretty to watch, but competitive, at least
Since wins and losses within a division cancel out, the collective win-loss differential of a division reflects how the division does against non-division teams Last year the NL Central collectively was 404-406, the same record that the NL West collectively had. The AL West collectively was 391-419 while the AL Central was 359-452. . As divisions, the AL West and AL Central then are the weakest and the least competitive though there may be a strong team or two within them. Only the AL East (449-361) and NL East (424-386) had positive differentials.
It’s not so much a weak division as it just lacks extremes. No team will come close to winning 100 games but there’s no team like the A’s or Nationals clearly tanking at the bottom either.
I don’t think I trust the rotations for any of these teams. Feels like whichever one can do the best there has the best path towards winning the division.
Don’t let this distract you from the fact that an NL Central team hasn’t won a playoff series since 2019.
You make it sound like it was the dinosaur ages.
May as well have been.
OMG… I didn’t realize you were an Angels fan. Talk about playoff series wins and dinosaur ages, huh?
Reds followed by the Cubs, but like someone said above, none are going to be dominant
Red Cubs at the top and a shootout for the bottom three. Brew crew will probably trade off at the deadline. Pirates on the improve. Kinda doubt Lynn helps the Cards. They have the corner infielders and a few good pitchers. Too many holes.
Good take for one very good reason, the Reds have terrific depth and the farm to go get anything they need at the deadline…
Second worst division behind the AL Central. Add two teams and get back to the East/West format like pre-1994.
The owners probably want as many Divisions as possible. A Division flag isn’t as meaningless as a grammar school participation trophy but it’s something for more fans to feel good about. More divisions would create more meaningful games deeper into September to keep the stands full which is the real motive for 3 or 4 divisions per league.
Jack Dawkins: There already are three divisions. Once the league idiotically expands again, there will probably be 8 divisions with four teams each. That would allow 8 teams to automatically qualify. With Manfred in charge, there could be 20 teams in the PO, along with a play-in series to get the rest of the league in the post season. Can’t wait for a White Sox /A’s world series, which will be best-of-15.
The Cardinals are the best team
I’ll take the field to win the division
This is in no way incongruent
no fair using multiple syllable words…
I know, I had to look up some of those words in my Funk & Wagnall’s.
Reds all day.
The Reds win the Central, and I’ll take the over by 8 games..
Cards will win this division and may only need 83 wins like they had in 2006 to do it!!!
Not with that Geritol pitching staff they don’t..
This sure didnt age well, eh?
Neither of the estimators give the Reds a lot of chance of finishing with a winning record, but they are being voted here as being as likely to win the division as the Cards. What am I missing here?
Lots of us Reds fans must be voting. I for one believe the Reds are going to win 90+ games in 2024.
As a Cardinals fan, I think the Reds are the most talented team. However, they are very young, so it’s hard to forecast their performance. If their young arms stay healthy and take the same steps forward their young bats did last season, look out. The Reds can match raw talent with any team in the NL. I mean every word of that. That’s what the voting reflects.
Reds definitely have a lot of upside but not a lot of veterans. They are banking on a lot of young talented guys to simultaneously improve. It will definitely be a fun year in the central. I can honestly see a path for every team to win the division.
That’s why I’m leaning towards Reds, Greene and Abbott especially are ele tric young arms. I know not many people are high on Martinez, but I think it’s a solid underrated signing by them. I’m not a fan of Montas at all tho.
As for Cards obviously Gray is an improvement. I think Mikolas is vastly overrated, Matz has always been unpredictable, I don’t need to elaborate on Lynn. Gibson I do like tho even tho he’s solidly avg to just below avg. He’s not going to go out and shutdown teams but keeps team in game for the offense which is a strength of Cards.
These predictions are based on data from last season. It’s highly flawed.
Attempting to base a prediction of the future on anything other than the past is otherwise known as a guess.
Yet they’re consistently wrong..
Define “wrong.” Describe a method for more accurately predicting the future than extrapolating from the past.
The pure level of talent in Cincy borders on mind-boggling. That’s why. Their investments this winter have been logical too.
I’m not buying into the Cardinals hype train. I got Brewers > Cubs > Reds, > Cardinals > Pirates in a fairly close race.
I don’t think the winner of this division wins more than 86 games. It’s going to be close all year.
VPH
Ok?
The most boring if taeks is someine just saying something without trying to defend it.
Wow!
I’m not buying into the Acuña hype train. I think he only puts up 4 WAR this year.
Ohh.dud you read that? What a taek, huh?
The Cardinals stunk last year, and improved their rotation with a bunch of #3-4 starters. That’s my defense. I could be wrong, but that’s part of the fun.
I have no idea what a taek is though.
VPH
“The Cardinals stunk last yea”
This is what happens when people refi never played the game just look at theur spreadsheets and don’t actually watch games. :facepalm:
I can assure you I watched plenty of Cardinals games last year and they absolutely stunk. What would you call it? Bad luck?
VPH
” can assure you I watched plenty of Cardinals games last year ”
I have no doubt that that’s true
What I doubt is that your eye test is better than the stats
If your eyes told you that the Cardinals were a good team last year, then please consult your eye doctor.
It’s okay to criticize teams. The 2023 Cardinals were a bad team that fell way short of projections. And guess what? On these very forums I stated the same thing last year. I don’t see the 2024 Cardinals making the playoffs. Of course I could be wrong. That’s part of the fun. But please don’t act like it’s insane to think that a 71 team will not win 13+ more games in 2024. It’s very possible that they don’t. None of us know how these things will play out, including yourself. Good luck this year.
VPH
“If your eyes told you that the Cardinals were a good team last year, then please consult your eye doctor.”
Nah
You check yours
“It’s okay to criticize teams. ”
Sure.
The Rockies and A’s look terrible this year
“The 2023 Cardinals were a bad team that fell way short of projections. ”
They fell short of projections, yes
They weren’t that bad
“And guess what? On these very forums I stated the same thing last year”
What exactly did you say? Why did you say it? What else did you say? Can you link to it?
I questioned their starting pitching depth and their reliance on older, decling players. I suggested that they trade Goldy for a package that could make them competitive as soon as 24. Instead they held on to Goldy, who becomes a free agent at the end of this season.
They are caught in the middle. Trying to compete without enough firepower. They signed a bunch of innings eaters who will improve their rotation, but they still don’t have much depth there.
The NLC is always a winnable division. There’s no run away winner, but I see this Cardinals roster as missing quite a few pieces.
VPH
You wrote a lot of words, but didn’t answer a single question that I asked
Did you predict them to win 20 fewer games in 2023 than 2022? If so, can you link to that?
You say the NL Central is winable, then criticize the Cardinals for not tanking in 2923.
I predicted them to not make the playoffs. I didn’t put a number on it. I don’t have the time to dig into posts from half a year ago.
I criticized them for not trading Goldy at the trade deadline, when it was pretty clear the Cards had issues. They were 11 out of the WC spot at the All-Star break and held on to their big pieces.
VPH
“I predicted them to not make the playoffs. I didn’t put a number on it.”
So, you didn’t look at the 2023 team and see 20 fewer wins? So, you didn’t think they were that bad?
So, you’re not actually using your eyes are you? You’re just looking at a spreadsheet and making comments?
What are you talking about? I watched games, and saw all the holes they had, and how the older guys were declining. It was not about spreadsheets. The Cardinals failed the eyetest last year. It was obvious. I think holding on to Goldy was a mistake unless they extend him this season. I feel like they could have gotten pieces at the deadline that would have helped them this season.
VPH
“What are you talking about?”
Exactly what I said
Your eyes didn’t see the Cardinals being a 70 win team
So, do you admit that your eyes are flawed or do you admit that the W-L record is flawed?
One of the two most be true
I don’t care about exact W-L record. I saw the Cardinals declining and not making the playoffs. I was right. I see them finishing this year slightly better than last year, but still out of the playoffs. The jury is still out there.
Can you tell me why you think otherwise? I’d happily welcome a discussion instead of the nonsense you’re doing. You disagree, but don’t say why. Please discuss why the Cardinals will have a good 2024. Otherwise mute me.
I don’t see what you see in the Brewers. They are going to be below .500 for sure. If the Cubs land Belli and sign a starter at some point, it’s their division to lose.
@SOB
I expect the Brewers’ young players to make their offense much better than last year. They were counting on some broken-down vets last year to produce, and it didn’t happen. I think they’re young bats could make them exciting to watch. Also, they have been pretty successful milking useful innings out of pitchers who don’t excite anyone else. I think they’ll be right there, even without Burnes and Woodruff.
“If the Cubs land Belli and sign a starter at some point, it’s their division to lose.”
I mean the same could be said about anyone in the division. Obviously these predictions change if anyone lands Belli and a starter, but I have no reason to believe the Cubs are close to doing that right now.
I like the Hoskins addition for the Brewers offense, but their rotation took a major hit. Brewers, Reds, Cubs are all a coin flip for me. I’m not big on the Cards, and the Pirates will make a run at some point, but I’m not sure they can sustain that. But I have to emphasize that I’m just a moron on the internet who enjoys baseball banter.
The first step in fixing a problem is admitting there is one. I should fall right in line behind you with my hand raised by taking the over on the Reds winning the Central by 8 games.. lol
Hmmm…. this sure didnt age well, huh??
Well I’m not the only one to have thought that! It is still very much a surprise to me when you look at that roster on paper. But I know there is some magic synergy going on there, and I really like Pat Murphy. We will see how far they go! They went farther than my team, that’s for sure! (M’s) cheers and best of luck!
@Von
Cardinals hype train? I don’t know who’s putting that out. It’s not Cardinals fans. We’re not finished being surly and butt hurt about last season yet. If you mean the Fan Graphs projections, I wouldn’t call a prediction of 83 wins a “hype train”.
Not the Cardinals fans. I’m more talking about all the preseason ranking systems (FG…etc) listed in this article. I don’t see the Cardinals additions adding up to first place. They were a 71 win team last year. Their rotation is improved, but they don’t have that shutdown guy. The predicted 83 to 84 wins seems a bit high to me.
VPH
“The predicted 83 to 84 wins seems a bit high to me.”
Because you don’t know how to judge teams
Did the Cardinals’ additions add up to negative 22 wine?
If not, then we know W-L record isn’t an exact measure of team preference and talent
Since we know that, we know not too. Start with 2023’s 71 wins for the 2924 Cardinals
Maybe if the Cardinals didn’t drink “22 wine”, they would have won more games.
VPH
“Maybe if the Cardinals didn’t drink “22 wine”, they would have won more games.”
Do you ever add anything of value in your discussions?
Or should I just mute you?
FH
Mute him.
You’re well on your way to being alone on here.
Insert quote here.
Do you really like paragraph breaks?
Or do you want it that way (all of the above).
How about them Cardinals? Maybe I do know how to judge teams.
This will either be very stupid or look like a good take but I’m actually very bullish on the Pirates. The could take off like the O’s last year and can actually see a race between them and the Reds. Most likely wishful thinking but I really like the young guys on the Bucs.
I would be the happiest idiot here if the Reds and Pirates were battling for the number one spot in the division. Go Reds and Buccos. F the Cards. I mean, forget the Cards. Overhyped as usual.
Just want to commend you on your name here. And the F…uh, forget… the Cards comment, of course
CC
It’s stupid
Because you’re just saying something
I see it as Cards followed by Cubs then Reds. If any of the 3 were to sign Snell or Montgomery they would probably move to top
Cards, Brewers and Pirates will be in the mix at the top three. Cubs and Reds won’t be bad but they’ll be behind. BUT they’ll all be with in striking distance of each other going into the last month.
Cards and Brewers for obvious reasons.. but the Pirates.. I’m not optimistic they’ll make the playoffs but pretty optimistic they’ll be at .500 which should keep them in the hunt. While the pirates didn’t make any splash moves they made some decent ones. The team doesn’t need it all to go right this year, they just need less to go wrong.
@ joew – Full season of O’Neil Cruz, bounce back years from Tellez and Perez, solid year from Skenes after June callup, and Peguero taking solid step forward at 2B…these are all the Bucs need to win this division, especially if every team finishes with 77-84 wins. Cruz, Skenes and Peguero could all be real difference makers. Without all of those things, I like the Reds to win, if their pitching improves quite a bit.
No. It’s not all they need. They need Hayes to show his hitting last year was no fluke. They need Suwinski to cut down drastically on his K’s and drive in runs. They need Reynolds to be Reynolds and they need Davis to take a step forward behind the plate
But mostly, they need this patchwork starting staff to at least keep them in most games
Other than that, yeah. Hope you’re right
@tired – I was making the assumption that Reynolds would be Reynolds and Hayes would be Hayes, and that Suwinski’s strikeouts would decrease by limiting his AB against LHP. It goes without saying that Davis will take a step forward behind the plate. There is no backwards there. Their pitching was a mess last year. It will be better this season.
Also, I should point out that one could attach an “if” to every player in every lineup, but most of those would be unnecessary.
I’d love to hear these obvious reasons.. seriously. The most talented team in the division is clearly Cincinnati, and they have incredible depth and versatility..
Cards and Brewers are always favorites.. obvious reasons.
Though the cards maybe heading the other way with losing many of their staples the past few years.
Brewers have been making mostly the good moves.
That is why its obvious.
The NL Central will be the most exciting division to watch in the NL this year and will most likely advance the most teams into the 2024 playoffs out of all the NL divisions. The NL East should put through 2 in Atlanta & Philly while the NL West should put through the Dodgers and the D-Backs.
Meanwhile, there are 3 teams in the NL Central who should win between 86-89 games and a 4th in St. Louis who should win between 80-84 games. I see the division not being clinched until then last week of Sept, and possibly a one game playoff for the central title. The only question is whether or not the Giants or the Padres have done enough this offseason to leapfrog one of Milwaukee, Cincinnati or Chicago for the last playoff spot. My guy says no but that is why they play the games.
DM, there are no more one-game playoffs, everything is decided by various regular-season records, starting with head-to-head.
Thanks, forgot about that.
This sounds right to me except I don’t believe the Cubs are finished upgrading. I think the Cubs and the Cardinals will be close in the end.
If Bellinger goes back to Chicago I like the cubs easily. I think the Cardinals will finish in last, I think the team is pretty much flat to last year, but Goldschmidt and Arenado continue to decline. They are already setting the ground work for excuses. I am high on the Pirates. I can see them sneaking into a wild card spot. But really any team other than STL has a chance. It will be fun to see the Brewers be able to slug again.
The fact that the Cubs haven’t addressed CF or 3B is, frankly, infuriating. As a fan I can only hope that Bellinger and/or Chapman get tired of this staring contest and tell Boras to get something done in the next week. Put either—or both—of those guys in the middle of the Cubs’ lineup and you have your NL Central favorite right there.
It’s all about price. In CF it’s just a matter of time before PCA is ready and first base is ostensibly filled with the Michael Busch acquisition. Short term deal for Belli? Absolutely makes sense. Long term? Heck no. Chapman I think is overrated. Do not be surprised if Morel plays a pretty solid third base for the Cubs this year. The Cubs are going to be better than the projections.
Oh yeah—I’d be down with 4/$110 for Bellinger (due to relative youth and positional flexibility) or something like 2/$55 for Chapman. I don’t want to be tied to either guy for 6-8 years…and it doesn’t look like the other 29 GMs want to, either.
They dont need chapman..morel already hits about the same and is younger so their is room for him to grow..and adding another guy who strikes out that much probably hurts them..cubs offense was really good cause they had a bunch of different type players who got on base
Morel looked pretty good at third today, he could be the permanent at the position. I think Busch will be good at first, could be the next Rizzo. I think the team is much better than we think.
I also wonder if good showings from PCA and Morel will force Boras’ (and his clients’) hands a bit. If Morel’s hitting .450 and catching everything in sight two weeks from now, whatever offer the Cubs have on the table for Chapman is going to *rapidly* evaporate…and the same will hold true for PCA/Bellinger. Boras might’ve painted these guys into a real corner here…
Give Belli another one year contract to prove last year was not a fluke and he can go get his money at 29 next year when PCA has figured out MLB pitching. We don’t need Chapman, Morel will do well if he can figure out third base, the dude has a canon for an arm. His throws looked great today.
I dont think he will take a one year deal..but maybe they do a 4ish year deal that has a mutual option after the first year..if he fails to produce you have an out..but if he continues to produce you feel good he is back to the player he should have been all along cause you have a two year sample and a 4ish year deal looks fair for all involved
A strong NO to Chapman, and only a possible maybe to Bellinger if he’s willing to accept 3 yrs at $75 mil with no opt-outs, and a few million in bonus money for NL and WS MVP. PCA may not be ready by opening day, but he will be ready by mid-May (I’m talking about hitting. In the field, he was ready opening day last year) Morel is going to be fine at 3B and so will Busch at 1B. And if not, Shaw’s on the way at 3B and and there’s always the trade deadline for 1B. Bottom line, Cubs win the Central with Cincinnati/Milwaukee a close second
“Adam Wainwright’s swan song turned out to be ear-splitting” is particularly humorous considering his fledgling musical career.
Honestly, how much crack would you need to be smoking to pick the cardinals?
J
None
Congrats on trying to have a taek though
I believe it’s spelled “take”. I don’t think I’ve ever witnessed such an easily spelled word abused so many times in one thread. A clear representation of… well, many things.
ts
Maybe “take” and “taek” are two different things
Life must be difficult for you, a struggle of titanic proportions even, if you attempt to define the world as rigidly as you appear to based off of this interaction.
I’m just annoyed by ignorance.. yours is clearly showing as well..
ts
“I’m just annoyed by ignorance.. yours is clearly showing as well..”
Glad I could help
Now you are less ignorant. Now you know people use the “taek” spelling to mock “hot take culture”
You seem very confident. Wanna put your money where your mouth is?
1.Stlouis
2.Cubs
3.reds
4.milwakee5
5.pittsburg
Crazy! No way!!
I think it would have been funny to not include the Pirates in the article.
Bucs going to surprise! Get any young pitching to come through!? Could surprise!
Reds!
100%
Comparing 2022 to 2023 standings, the Cards lost 20 games more in 2023, They simply didn’t add 9 more wins by the changes to their roster vs last year. This is a 75 win team. Brewers were 4 games better in 2023, but do not have the pitching they relied on last year. Still a 80-82 win team most likely. Cubs were 9 games better in 2023 than 2022 but without Bellinger, Stroman, Candelario, etc. they will regress to a mid 70s win team. Pirates were 14 games better than 2022 last year and though they have made few substantial additions, should improve to 80+ wins by 2024. Reds improved 20 games last year, lost no substantial players except Votto, but added Montas, Martinez, Candelario, Suter, and Pagan. Even with some regression among young players- this is a mid 80s win team. and a division winner. All teams in the division (except Cards) will benefit from good minor league systems- but in 2024 this will mostly disipate in the overall standings.
cg
“Comparing 2022 to 2023 standings, the Cards lost 20 games more in 2023, They simply didn’t add 9 more wins by the changes to their roster vs last year. ”
O thought you were going to say something smart here
But
You didn’t
Did the Cardinals subtract 20 eins between 2022 and 2023?
Or is there some random variation in there that needs to be accounted for?
(Hint: the correct answer is “yes. There is random variation”)
It’s called a trend, fk. Random variations do not account for 12.3% of games Cards played. They did not fully address their decline in 2023 and are thus most likely to continue to trend down.
cg
“Random variations do not account for 12.3% of games Cards played.”
Citation requested
Transistion. Pirates and Reds played their young prospects in 2023. Reds even in a playoff drive. Tranistion takes time. Brewers and Cubs have some great young prospects, but have to put in the transistion time this season- moreso than Pirates and Reds. Cards are transistioning in to an old team.
cguy, You’re wasting your intelligence on this fine person, who simply cannot abide any Cardinals criticism. Clearly the Cardinals are a 100+ win team bound for destiny. For the first time in history, old declining players will find the fountain of youth.
VPH
“Clearly the Cardinals are a 100+ win team bound for destiny. For the first time in history, old declining players will find the fountain of youth.”
What a dumb thing to say
I notice that it’s only YOU saying it
I will take the reds over .500 all day.
Don’t understand the poll results. Their rotation includes Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson. Reds are clearly better on paper. Cubs lost Belly and Stroman. Pirates are improving, but not there yet. Brewers pitching building for the future.
How is this cardinals team 20 games better than last year? I just ain’t seeing it. Either Cubs or Brewers will win 85 games which is probably all you need.
Stl won 71 games last year, signed a bunch of old pitchers and failed to address any of the internal problems that caused this result. Smart money stl < 71 wins.
1. Cubs
2. Reds
3. Pirates
4. Brewers
5. east missouri team
Chicago clearly has better talent across the diamond than the other 4 teams. Cubs farm system is also loaded and about to provide a steady stream of studs all over the field. Reds are young and will be a force in the future. They still need better pitching to survive in that little league ballpark. Pirates are growing stronger steadily and have Skenes on the way to be their next ace. Brewers are fading fast and will be back to small market wannabe soon. East Missouri team is in shambles and will continue to fade fast. They can field a decent old age home softball team though.
That’s right, weed is legal in Illinois..
The cardinals were 20 games over .500 against the NL central in 2022 and 10 games under in 2023. 2022 was the last year they got to beat up on those teams because their youth started to play in 2023 and more youth coming from those teams. While the cardinals bring in has been a in Lynn, Gibson and Carpenter to get older. Makes no sense. I’m a huge Cardinal fan but this team is worse going into 2023 than they were going into 2022. Mean while the other teams are making acquisitions that make sense to supplement their Uber talented farm system that is graduating to the bigs. If Skenes and Priester can prove to be the real deal the rotation of Keller, Skenes, Priester and Perez could be really good this year and the Pirates win 85-90. I like them better than the Marlins, Nationals, Cardinals, Padres, Rockies, Giants, Mets, and Reds.
Cubs with Bellinger could be a 90+ win team and the Brewers have proved for a long time they know what they are doing with starting pitching so no concerns there. They got two young 3B that can rake, one should make the club early this year. They will be fun to watch it in their ballpark, but probably around .500.
Green in Cincinnati just can’t stay healthy. Also see them as .500 team.
cardinals could lose 100 games this year.
Cardinals with 90+.
Based on Fangraphs projected WAR, I have:
Cardinals: 86-76
Cubs: 82-80
Reds: 80-82
Brewers: 80-82
Pirates: 75-87
However, I could easily see the Cubs winning the division so I’m picking the Cubs to win this year.
Its gonna happen.
Again.
The managers made the difference who won the division last season
I think the term “best team in the NL Central” should be used loosely and with a grain of salt.
The Reds have a high ceiling, but I’m surprised by how many people think them getting what it is a sure thing.
The Reds have a lineup and depth that can have studs 1 thru 9 every single day. The starting five are all right on the cusp of having an elite season. I think a big key for them there is Lodolo. That guy if healthy, can be that elite starter they didn’t empty the farm for.
It’s the Brewers until someone else takes it from them.
The Cubs havent really upgraded anywhere but Manager, and that’s really just replacing Bellinger at this point.
The Cardinals have hinged their season on 3 35+ year old pitchers all with question marks.
The Pirates are better, but not win the division better.
The Reds have improved, but questions remain in key places.
The Brewers still have the best bullpen in the division, and will still be elite defensively. The rotation will take an obviosus step back, but it may not matter.
Realistically no one in this division is that much better than they were last year.
Correct about the Brewers’ bullpen, defense and improved offense. They will compete.
Feury
“It’s the Brewers until someone else takes it from them.”
Nah. The best team this year has little to do with who the best team last year was.
When exactly ZERO teams got any better, why would there be an expectation of change?
Feury
1) random variation
2) every team changed
Love your optimism. The Brewers still have arguable the 2 most impactful moves of the offseason in the divsion on the positive side. I look forward to the shock of all fans when again the underestimated Brewers stand tall.
Feuty
“Love your optimism”
What optimism? What are you talking about?
” I look forward to the shock of all fans when again the underestimated Brewers stand tall.”
I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the Brewers win.
FabGraohs gives them about a 20% chance to the the division
They need one of these for the A.L. central. Then put the poll if the winner will be .500 or not.
N.L. central I might put it at a whopping over/under of 86 wins.
Who knows on both.
There are too many quality free agents remaining to predict divisions… I can’t believe I just watched my first spring training game today and just said that.
While I completely understand why the Cubs are playing coy, I don’t understand why the Pirates aren’t being more opportunistic. The Cubs could go into the season as currently constructed and realistically expect to hang tight until the deadline, then address obvious needs.
The Pirates have a clear need in the rotation, clean books, and a chance to play meaningful games for the first time in years. They should sign Monty at his price and enjoy the shock on everyone’s faces.
Just my opinion but:
Cubs have the best rotation in the division and deepest
Don’t exactly see how the Cardinals improved exactly
Reds are dangerous but promoted some guys too early IMO
Brewers seem set to take a step back this year
Pirates still have work to do on their pitching, It’s not good
Pitching usually wins and the Cubs are the best and deepest pitching staff in the division. Steele-Tallion, Imanaga, Hendricks, and Wicks are solid with Assad, Wesneski, Brown, and Killian available. The bullpen is deep if not spectacular. They will hit enough and have the best defense in the division.
Arenado and Goldschmidt are a year older and showed some warts.
It’s only been one ST game but I thought all of that before they even played.
They ALL suck. I think Mozeliak is trying his mediocre damndest to alienate us Cardinal fans. What an absolute moron.
It appears it’s working..
Still believe Cardinals are team to beat. Every thing possible went wrong last year for them . Don’t see it happening again. Goldschmidt and Arenado may not be once they once were but still should put up decent numbers. Add in Gorman possible 40 HR Donovan OBP Walker and Nootbar continued improvement. Bullpen pretty decent . If starters hold up will be big question . Adding Montgomery back would be huge but still like them as favorite
“Still believe Cardinals are team to beat. Every thing possible went wrong last year for them . Don’t see it happening again. ”
Thank you for understanding this basic point about baseball that so many don’t
Too many people think W-L record is the “ultimate stat” that tells them everything they need to know about a team. It’s not.
The Cardinals (and Padres and others) were better than their record last year. And they aren’t starting off 2024 from that place.
That’s such a misnomer. How are you better than your record? Your record is your season…. you actually can’t be better (or worse for that matter) than your record. It’s literally THE REASON we have records… to define how good or bad a team is during a season…
To be clear, I get what you mean…. but that said…. no, they werent better tahn their records, because those records WERE WHAT THOSE TEAMS ACCOMPLISHED. You can’t be better or worse than what you ACTUALLY DID.
Feury
“How are you better than your record? ”
Maybe try and play a sport once.
“It’s literally THE REASON we have records… to define how good or bad a team is during a season…”
No. A record is a..you know…record if how many games a team won or lost.
” You can’t be better or worse than what you ACTUALLY DID.”
You very much can
So then if that’s the case I guess we’ll go to a BCS style playoffs for baseball right? Because if records dont matter, then why play?
Great… so then in cards… when you play blackjack do you consider it a better hand when you lose? No. Because your result is what you end up with. Projections mean squat. The Brewers wouldnt have been over 500 the past 3 years based on the projections you love to quote. Same thing here, doesnt matter what your odds are, it matters what you accomplish. The Padres were bad last year, and that’s all there is to it. There underachieved, they stuck, they were bad. That’s fact, not fiction, not made up oh there so much better. No, they werent. They sucked. End of story. Nothing else matters.
Juvenile to call people dumb. I have no once insulted your intelligence or fandom anywhere in this conversation. So if that’s where you are taking this, as you already have, then enjoy talking to yourself.
There is ZERO reason to be calling people names here. So please stop.
Feury
“when you play blackjack do you consider it a better hand when you lose? ”
No
But if I lose a hand that doesn’t mean the dealer is better
“The Brewers wouldnt have been over 500 the past 3 years based on the projections you love to quote.”
Citation requested
Nah, you arent worth the effort. Especially after you resorted to name calling. You are being muted. Good bye.
Feury
“Nah, you arent worth the effort.”
I wasn’t asking for my edification. I was asking so you’d see that you were Full of it (shh)
So, ate you going to do now?
Ignore that you were wrong?
Or are you strong enough to admit that you don’t know what you’re talking about?
2023 84 wins
blogs.fangraphs.com/the-official-hopefully-not-too…
2022 88 wins
blogs.fangraphs.com/the-hopefully-not-horrifyingly…
2021 83 wins
blogs.fangraphs.com/the-hopefully-not-too-regretfu…
“The Brewers wouldnt have been over 500 the past 3 years based on the projections you love to quote.”
Pathetic
Feury
“Nah, you arent worth the effort.”
Maybe if you put more effort into knowing what you’re talking about before you open your yap, you wouldn’t look like such a dumb[butt] when you do
Feury
“you resorted to name calling.”
Is it name-calling if it’s true?
I don’t think you’re intelligent
I don’t think you’re informed
I don’t think you’re honest
It’s such a relief that I didn’t see any comments saying Council will put the Cubs over the line! I predict one of their young players break out as a star and Suzuki is a consistent middle rotation hitter. Swanson continues as an average hitter and they make a splash at the break to take the division.
I would pick the Reds.
Cards are projected first but their rotation still is bad and they added depth but mostly old guys who don’t strike out guys.
Brewers have a nice young hitting core but pitching rotation lost too much to compete already this season.
Pirates are the Pirates.
The cubs also have young talent coming up but I feel they are not ready and the veterans they signed to bridge the gap are kinda meh.
That leaves the reds, I feel their young core is on both sides hitting and pitching and it is most ready as indicated by them competing a long time last year before collapsing.
I see them as most likely to take another step forward.
On the other hand it is an open division. Every team has young talent that could take a step forward and the reds young players could experience a sophomore slump. But right now I would pick them.
I dont think people realize that the Brewers allowed the fewest runs in baseball last year. In fact, the Brewers could allow 81 more runs this year than last (0.5 r/g for those who hate math) and they would STILL be an average rotation per the MLB. Combine that with a better offense, and arguably the biggest offseason addition to the roster of any team (promoting Chourio)… step back? Sure. But so much so they wont be right there, if not win it, can’t agree.
They also literally lost two top15 pitchers in all of baseball. Their rotation is projected 7th worst in mlb by fangraphs depth charts projections.
Their defense and pen should limit the damage but still I think they are like a .500 team and could be worse if they decide to trade some pieces.
If they trade adames and Williams they are probably more like a 75 win team.
In 1 or 2 years they could be good again though
This didn’t age well, eh?
The Reds will run away with the division.
“They quickly signed Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson at the start of the offseason to replace Flaherty, Montgomery and Wainwright. ”
3.8 WAR in 2023
Projected for 7.1 by Fangraphs in 2024
EXACTLY. Sonny Gray hasn’t won more than 11 games since 2015. Lance Lynn gave up the most homers in the MLB last year, and had a 5.75 era with one of his BEST seasons of babip in his career…. and Kyle Gibson, outside of half a season with Texas, hasnt had an era below 4.7 since 2018, and even then it’s only ONE (and a half) SEASON below 4.7 since 2015. Explain how that makes the Cards BETTER than last year? These 3 additions were all healthy last year (all threw over 180 IP), so you got average to below average pitching that is basically guarenteed to take the ball…. is that actually a good thing though?
Feury
“is that actually a good thing though?”
What is definitely a good thing is realizing pitcher wins and EEA sucks for evaluating pitchers
Mo and Ollie are running St. Louis into the ground. They will be bottom feeders in two years.
Going to be fun. Hey Chicago what do you say? Buckle up were about to see something special.
Would have liked to see Hoyer sign Soler to be the DH and resign Bellinger for 1B. Soler to a 3 yr 16M AAV and Bellinger 6 yr 27M AAV with the 1st year at $17M and the rest spread over the remaining 5 yrs keeping the team below or right at the luxury tax level. I can’t see Hendricks coming back next year and Gomes may be gone by then too. That would allow the team to stay under the tax and have a very potent line up for several years to come. Would have been great seeing those 2 power bats in the middle of the line up. Hoyer is being pretty cautious and may be letting opportunities slip by.
Best NLCentral team or “tallest chihuahua”
The Cardinals are over rate everybody sems to think last rear was an outliner. They still don’t have pitching and their team good players are a year older and their decline will continue.