Justin Steele Out Until At Least May

Cubs ace Justin Steele exited his first start of the season with a hamstring strain, and he’s looking at an absence that’s more than double the minimum 15 days on the injured list. Manager Craig Counsell told the Cubs beat today that Steele has been diagnosed with a Grade 1 strain and is expected to miss the entire month of April (X link via Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic). The team doesn’t have an exact timetable yet, as they’re waiting for Steele to be able to walk without a limp before mapping things out more concretely.

Steele was cruising through a well-deserved first Opening Day start of his career when he tumbled awkwardly while fielding a bunt off the bat of Leody Taveras. The 28-year-old lefty managed to make an impressive play and throw out the speedy Taveras but immediately grabbed at his leg in the aftermath of the play before exiting with a trainer. The Cubs put him on the injured list earlier today and called up pitching prospect Ben Brown.

Losing Steele for at least a sixth of the season is a significant blow to a Cubs club that has its sights set on a return to the postseason in what’s viewed as a wide-open NL Central division. The left-hander was never considered to be a premium prospect but has nevertheless climbed from an unheralded fifth-round pick to not just a solid member of the starting staff but an All-Star and top-five finisher in National League Cy Young voting.

Steele made 30 starts for the Cubs in 2023 and pitched 173  1/3 innings with a 3.06 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate, 5% walk rate and 49.4% ground-ball rate. That marked his second straight season of a low-3.00s ERA, but Steele dramatically improved his walk rate in 2023 and enjoyed his success over a much larger sample in ’23 than the prior season. Including his 2021 rookie showing and this year’s lone appearance, he’s pitched to a 3.28 ERA in 354 big league innings.

With Steele sidelined for more than a month and perhaps even a fair bit more than that — Counsell did not specify whether early May or late May was the expectation — the Cubs’ rotation depth will be put to the test early. Chicago signed star NPB lefty Shota Imanaga to a four-year contract over the winter, effectively replacing righty Marcus Stroman, who eventually signed with the Yankees as a free agent. Imanaga, Kyle Hendricks and bounceback hopeful Jameson Taillon will lead a staff that’ll now be quite young in the four and five spots.

The 24-year-old Brown, a well-regarded pitching prospect whom the Cubs acquired from the Phillies in the 2022 David Robertson trade, will make his big league debut when he first takes the mound. He has significant command issues in Triple-A last year (15.8% walk rate in 72 2/3 innings) but impressed in spring training and has strong overall numbers up through Double-A. Javier Assad has a 3.06 ERA in 41 career appearances, but more than half those have come out of the bullpen. He’s also posted a below-average 20.2% strikeout rate against a higher-than-average 9.9% walk rate.

The Cubs have a few soft spots on the schedule over the next month-plus, but they’ll face more competitive teams than non-contenders. Their April schedule will see them square off against the Dodgers, Astros, D-backs, Mariners, Padres, Marlins, Red Sox and Rockies. They draw the Mets, Brewers (twice), Padres, Pirates (twice), Braves (twice) and Cardinals in May.