Justin Steele

Cubs southpaw Justin Steele is slated to undergo season-ending surgery on his left elbow, manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Patrick Mooney of The Athletic) this afternoon. Steele was placed on the injured list with elbow tendinitis shortly after his most recent start against the Rangers and was sent to receive a second opinion on the issue after undergoing an initial MRI on Thursday. Whether or not Steele will require a full Tommy John surgery or instead undergo an internal brace procedure is not yet clear. He won’t pitch again in 2025 in either case, but internal brace procedures typically come with a shorter recovery timeline of around twelve months, as opposed to the timeline for Tommy John, which can stretch up to 18 months and would likely impact much of his 2026 campaign as well.

It’s a gut punch for the Cubs and their fans, particularly given initial indications that Steele’s injury wasn’t especially significant. The southpaw told reporters after his placement on the IL last week that he was expecting a minimum stint on the shelf, and the injury did not initially appear dissimilar from the relatively minor elbow issue that caused him to spend two weeks on the shelf last September. When the club opted to seek a second opinion on Steele’s elbow, they suggested that recurring nature of the tendinitis was the impetus behind their decision to seek a second opinion in hopes of putting a stop to the problem in a more permanent fashion. Evidently, that will require the southpaw to go under the knife.

For at least the rest of 2025, that will leave Chicago without perhaps their most talented pitcher overall. Steele has drawn criticism over the years for his repertoire, which is generally limited to just a fastball and a slider aside from a handful of rarely-used tertiary offerings. Starting pitchers can rarely survive in the majors without at least three average pitches they can lean on, but Steele has managed to buck that trend. The unique properties of his fastball have allowed him to not only survive as a starter, but thrive. From the time he earned a job as a full-time starter in 2022 through the end of the 2024 season, Steele’s 3.10 ERA was sandwiched between Justin Verlander and Sandy Alcantara for the ninth-best figure in baseball. His 3.14 FIP also placed him within the top ten, and his 3.46 SIERA was good for 19th and placed him ahead of well-regarded aces such as Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Zac Gallen.

The southpaw wasn’t quite pitching up to that elite level in his first starts of the season. He was lit up to an ugly 6.89 ERA with a 19.4% strikeout rate in his first three starts of the year and, even as he mostly looked like his usual self in his latest start when he struck out eight Rangers across seven scoreless innings, his velocity has been down all year and averaged just barely 90 mph in that start against Texas. For a pitcher who usually sits around 92 mph, that’s a notable and concerning drop in velocity, but it’s nonetheless surely frustrating for the southpaw to be shut down just when he was beginning to turn a corner this year.

With Steele now out for at least the remainder of the year, the Cubs will need to hope for strong health from the remainder of their starting pitching options. Fellow southpaw Shota Imanaga will be leaned on heavily to step in as the team’s ace after a dominant rookie season in the majors where the 31-year-old managed a fifth-place finish in NL Cy Young voting and received an All-Star nod. Looking beyond Imanaga, fans in Chicago are left to hope that veteran Matthew Boyd’s brilliant performance (1.59 ERA, 3.34 FIP) across his first three starts in a Cubs uniform are a signal that he’ll be able to remain healthy and effective this year after four consecutive seasons of injury woes. Righty Jameson Taillon looking anything like he did last season, when he posted a 3.27 ERA and 3.92 FIP in 28 starts, would also go a long way to helping make up for the loss of Steele.

Outside of that veteran trio, the Cubs have little certainty in the rotation. Youngster Ben Brown looked good against the Dodgers in his start against the club yesterday, but carries a 5.09 ERA on the year despite a 3.89 FIP. Veteran swingman Colin Rea has looked good in three scoreless appearances as a long relief arm this year and is filling in for Steele as a spot starter today, though whether that’s Chicago’s long-term plan or just what they’ve decided on for today’s game remains to be seen. Right-hander Javier Assad is presently on the injured list due to an oblique issue but could start a minor league rehab assignment at some point this month.

Aside from those big league options, the club has some pitching depth in the minors as well. Southpaw Jordan Wicks was scratched from his start with Triple-A Iowa last week, though it’s unclear if that was to preserve him as a possible option to start today’s game or due to an injury of his own. Brandon Birdsell was on the radar for a possible big league debut at some point this year, though a shoulder issue has kept him out of action since February with no timetable for return. Top pitching prospect Cade Horton has a 1.23 ERA and 38.7% strikeout rate in his first two starts with Iowa this year, but has not yet fully built up to five inning starts after missing most of last year with his own injury issues. Veteran righty Chris Flexen signed a minor league deal with Chicago over the offseason and remains at Triple-A with the organization as a potential innings-eater, if necessary.

That’s enough depth that the Cubs should be able to get by in the rotation for the time being without much issue, as long as they avoid another major injury. Even so, the eyes of fans in Chicago are surely already turning to the trade deadline this summer. It’s unlikely the Cubs would jump the market and swing a major trade for a starting pitcher this far from July 31, but if the club remains in a strong position to contend this summer it would hardly be a surprise to see them involved in the trade market. Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara is widely expected to be the top arm available, but Tyler Anderson, Chris Bassitt, and Michael Lorenzen are among a number of lesser arms on expiring contracts who could theoretically be available this summer depending on where their respective clubs find themselves in the standings come July.