Dodgers right-hander Gavin Stone told members of the media, including Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, that manager Dave Roberts informed him he will break camp as the club’s fifth starter.
The rotation for the Dodgers has a lot of moving parts due to health and will likely be in flux throughout the year, but they entered Spring Training with four spots accounted for. Tyler Glasnow is a lock since he has been a borderline ace on a rate basis in recent years, though without the health to provide that production in a quantitative sense. But the Dodgers clearly believe in him, as they acquired him in a notable offseason trade and then quickly signed him to an extension that runs through 2028. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has yet to make his major league debut but parlayed his dominance in Japan into a 12-year, $325MM contract.
Bobby Miller has earned a spot after a solid showing last year, wherein he tossed 124 1/3 innings with a 3.76 ERA and solid peripherals to match. James Paxton will be there as well after he signed a one-year, $7MM pact in the offseason with incentives.
Walker Buehler could have been in line for the fifth spot but it seems he and the Dodgers have decided to slow play his season a bit. He underwent Tommy John surgery in 2022 and almost returned late in 2023 but ended up not rushing and therefore sitting out the entire season. That puts him in the position of going into 2024 presumably healthy but likely with workload limitations. He threw 207 2/3 innings in 2021 but was limited to just 65 the year after before the surgery and then missed 2023. Rather than start him in the rotation and have to shut him down at some point, it seems he and the club are going to have him be a bit behind everyone else, increasing his odds of being around for a stretch run and the playoffs.
That left pitchers like Stone, Ryan Yarbrough, Michael Grove, Emmet Sheehan and others as options to take a spot behind Glasnow, Yamamoto, Miller and Paxton. Sheehan was taken out of the competition a couple of weeks ago when it was reported that he would begin the season on the injured list due to shoulder soreness.
In the end, Stone won the job thanks to some encouraging results last year and a strong performance in spring this year. He made his MLB debut in 2023 but allowed 31 earned runs in as many innings, though that’s a small sample size and also came in a fairly unstable fashion. He made four starts and four relief appearances around frequent optional assignments. He had a larger sample size of 100 2/3 innings at Triple-A, wherein he posted a 4.74 ERA. His 27.8% strikeout rate was quite strong and his 43.2% ground ball rate close to average, though his 10.7% walk rate a tad high.
Here in camp this year, he has tossed 9 2/3 innings of official action with a 0.93 ERA. He has punched out nine hitters while walking just one and allowing only one earned run. The Dodgers played an exhibition game against Team Korea today in preparation for their Seoul Series and Stone tossed 3 1/3 scoreless with eight punchouts, one walk and no hits.
He will slot into the back of the rotation for now, though the rotation will be constantly changing this year. Buehler will slot in somewhere whenever he is ramped up and ready to go. Sheehan could get back in there if he gets over his shoulder issue. Dustin May underwent flexor tendon and Tommy John revision surgery last summer and could rejoin the club at some point. Clayton Kershaw underwent shoulder surgery in the offseason and is targeting a return in the summer. Tony Gonsolin is more of a long shot since he underwent Tommy John on September 1 of last year and will probably just be nearing readiness as the 2024 season is winding down.
On top of all that, new injuries are sure to crop up throughout the season as they always do. Taking all that together, there will probably be very little consistency in the rotation this year. But there is undoubtedly heaps of talent here and the club seems likely to be in good shape, regardless of who is actually taking the ball. For now, Stone has an opportunity and will look to make the most of it. If other pitchers return to health and he gets squeezed out at some point, he could move to a long relief role in the bullpen or be sent down to the minors, since he still has a couple of option years remaining.
Wishing all the best to Stone‼️
He’s taking a Wong rip and getting a Stoned
I thought his parents named him Gavin Stone.
Walker Buehler had his surgery mid 2022. He should be in the opening day rotation for 2024.
Like a rock.
Without Buehler, the Padres have the better rotation.
I am guessing 2 of the starting 5 Dodgers SP are healthy when the playoffs start. This rotation could look really ugly fast.
The Dodgers rotation probably has the highest ceiling of any rotation in baseball but also a lower floor than probably any contender.
With alot of ??????????????????
The Yankees would beg to differ with Cole starting the season on the IL. Rodon hasn’t looked great this spring. The floor is how many starting pitchers will miss time.
@YankeesBleacherCreature you know what I’ll stand corrected on the floor part of my comment because you’re absolutely correct
Doesn’t matter who they send out there, this team is going to score like 10 runs a game. Betts, Ohtani, Freeman.. lol. There’s going to be a lot of 3-0 first inning leads.
That’ll probably work in the regular season but not in the postseason.
detail
How many do you think is a lot?
Assuming you’re thinking about Betts reaching, Ohtani reaching and Freeman homering, those probabilities aren’t that hard to figure out.
Per FGDC projections
Betts .377 OBP
Ohtani .368 OBP
Freeman 26 Homers in 679 PA (3.8%)
Multiply all the together, you get (.377*.368*.038) .0053 or .53%
Multiply .53% times 162 games and you get 8.6 expected games
But
The Dosgers play half their games at home. Which means the other team will have a chance to score.
I can’t be bothered to look it up right now, but teams score in something like 25% of innings. So, we’d expect the opposing team to score in sometime likw (.25 * 8.6) 2.2 games. Meaning the Dodgers would only lead 3-0 in (8.6-2.2) 6.4 games.
Also, Betts, Ohtani and Freeman won’t all play 162 games. They’ll likely pay 150+ so that’ll knock off another few wins
So, back of the envelope, Dodgers might lead around 5 times this season after Betts and Ohtani reach and Freeman homers.
What you calculated was 3-0 with no outs in the first, not 3-0 in the 1st.
Pepe
“What you calculated was 3-0 with no outs in the first, not 3-0 in the 1st.”
Yes
“Assuming you’re thinking about Betts reaching, Ohtani reaching and Freeman homering, “
That’s an impressive response. I like it. They’re going to score a lot of runs, I don’t have the formulas for it, but I know it’s going to happen.
He earned it with a superb Spring. Best wishes this season.
So why spend 500 million for pitching?
Stone is just filling in for injuries. He did not look good last year. Still a youngster but obviously with promise once he gets his command down and refines his pitches and delivery. He’s likely the #8 starter behind Kershaw, Buehler and Sheehan who are all out.
This spring he has been pitching with way more confidence
Ahh the mental part of the game. Not talked about enough. Thanks.
More importantly, like “Butter Biscuits” as a moniker. Inspiration behind it?
I see lots of questions marks in Dodgers rotation because of age, injury concerns, or lack of MLB experience.
Which team doesn’t?
The Altoona Curve. Skenes, Chandler, Solometo, Harrington, and Barco will be better than Pirates rotation by a mile.
That’s why it helps to have depth and a good hitting team to offset those question marks. Still a chance to have a top end rotation.
Dodger$ win 120 games and get blown out in their first series of the playoffs. Can’t wait!
As opposed to the Giants not even sniffing the playoffs, I’ll take the odds on the Dodgers winning it all, all day long.
I get the Dodgers are in big time “win now” mode, but they need to have patience with some rookies and not pull the plug too quickly, as that really screws with the players heads. You named him the 5th starter, now stick to that. Build his confidence and be ready for some fluctuations and don’t immediately dump him to the minors if there is a hiccup, which could affect his entire career.
Dusty Baker is/was the worst when it comes to rookies, do not do that to him (and your other Hi-Po rookies. .
Stone was named #5 starter out of necessity as Buehler, Kershaw and Sheehan are out or not ready to start. He’s really #8 just ahead of Grove. Still way too early bet he looks improved from last year’s version.
I am a little suspicious of Stone because his top prospect reputation is based on a fairly brief body of work. But there’s no question he earned the job, so, good on him. And if he flops again, there’s plenty of others, as the article noted, and Hurt should be added to that list.
hrbtrf
River Ryan too
I hope the Dodgers go to a 6 man rotation when Buehler, Kershaw, and May comes back. I can see May in the bullpen.
I was extremely skeptical and critical of using a 6 man rotation … for any team. Just to much down time in between starts? But, in light of so many arm injuries around the league, maybe Dodgers are ahead of the curve here as they tinker with this strategy.
I think they will even if its just to get accustomed for 2025 a little
They love to {over} tinker Imo, they’ll adjust upon the schedule and probably even throw in some opener/Yarbourgh games just for funzees as well
These scumbags have 10 starters and still bought three more superstars including an injured “sign up for an easy ring” Kershaw. Why even watch this inevitable joke of a season?
Cry!
Your the only one that can answer that question MS
I hope Yoshi is as good as his contract is.
Just here for the ridiculously stupid comments. Just as I thought, Mickey Solis wins! No doubt Rocker49 will follow shortly.
Definitely passing the eye test so far. From what I’ve read, it is the re-command of his fastball that has been the key to setting everything else up. Good for him. Wish him well.