Trade talk surrounding White Sox righty Dylan Cease has apparently rekindled in full. Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the Padres and White Sox have recently discussed the 2022 AL Cy Young runner-up, which aligns with yesterday’s report from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, wherein he noted that the White Sox have had several members of their front office present to get first-hand looks at the Padres in recent days. The Friars join the Yankees and Rangers as clubs prominently linked to Cease in the second act of his offseason trade candidacy.
By now, the merits and risks regarding a trade for Cease have been well documented. He’s an affordable — $8MM in 2023, arb-eligible in 2025 — 28-year-old righty with two years of team control who demonstrated his upside with a second-place Cy Young finish in 2022 but struggled through a down year in 2023, when he notched a 4.58 ERA with slightly diminished (but still far better than average) strikeout and velocity numbers. Cease has worse command than one would prefer from a top starting pitcher, which has long been an issue, but he and other Sox hurlers have also been harmed by perennially poor defensive alignments behind them.
Last year’s pedestrian ERA notwithstanding, Cease is a durable power pitcher whom other organizations undoubtedly view as a playoff-caliber starter — if not a true No. 1 then at least a strong No. 2-3 option in a postseason rotation. No pitcher in baseball has started more games than Cease’s 109 dating back to 2020 — his first full season at the MLB level. Even if one were to assume that Cease’s 2022 season was an outlier, career-best campaign while his 2023 ERA was somewhat fluky in nature, a look at his entire body of work over the past three seasons reveals strong overall numbers: 526 2/3 innings of 3.54 ERA ball with a huge 29.8% strikeout rate against an elevated 10.1% walk rate. Fielding-independent metrics tend to support the idea that Cease’s talent level lands somewhere in the mid- to upper-3.00s.
In terms of pure team fit, the Padres are as strong a match as one could conjure up. The Friars’ offseason has been something of a financially motivated reset, but the team isn’t about to enter a full-scale rebuild with Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove all signed long-term. The Padres only have three clear starters at the moment in Musgrove, Darvish and trade acquisition Michael King, who came over from the Yankees in the Juan Soto swap.
Adding Cease to the rotation and cementing the top four spots would create a fifth-starter battle including Matt Waldron, Randy Vasquez, Jhony Brito, Pedro Avila, Jay Groome and others. The team’s chances of competing with that group vying for only the final spot in the rotation, obviously, would be far greater than needing to rely on two names from that unproven group to carry the back end of the staff. (Some of those names, of course, could be included in a theoretical trade package with the White Sox.)
The affordable nature of Cease’s contract surely appeals to a San Diego club that has slashed the present-day cost of its roster by nearly $100MM. That’s doubly true in that Cease’s $8MM salary wouldn’t put the Padres anywhere particularly close to the $237MM luxury-tax threshold they’re clearly hoping to avoid. RosterResource projects San Diego at just over $216MM in luxury obligations. Cease would be a net $7.26MM in luxury considerations, bringing the team to around $223.5MM. That’d still leave some room if president of baseball operations A.J. Preller wants to add Cease and pursue one more free agent outfielder, as has been rumored; the Padres were connected to Adam Duvall, Michael A. Taylor and old friend Tommy Pham earlier this week.
While Preller’s years of frenetic activity on the trade market lead to constant churn in the farm system, the Padres remain strong in that regard. Each of MLB.com, ESPN and Baseball America rank the Padres among the sport’s top six farm systems, due largely to strong drafting and international scouting, in addition to replenishing some of their lost depth in the trade that sent Soto and Trent Grisham to New York. Top prospect Jackson Merrill looks on track to be the team’s Opening Day center fielder and is surely all but untouchable alongside ballyhooed catcher Ethan Salas. But the Friars have as many as six other prospects who’ve drawn top-100 fanfare, in addition to a slew of near-MLB-ready talent that could entice the ChiSox to part with Cease.
I have to wonder at this point if the White Sox are throwing these out there to try to get teams to meet their nutty price.
Taking a page out of the Scott Boras handbook.
I’m betting on the Padres pulling this off.
This would be a meaningless trade that would deplete their farm.
Padres F-d up by trading for Soto.
Lakers did the same thing when they traded for Westbrook. There’s a 4-5 year recovery period after trading good prospects.
I wonder though, if the Padres were willing to take on an underwater contract like Jimenez or Benintendi would that lower the asking price on Cease?
I doubt the Padres will be taking on additional debt in their situation.
“In their situation “? They’re fine, have a.littlw wiggle room, just resetting the luxury tax.
They were ordered by MLB to get their debt service ratio back to within league guidelines; this isn’t just a matter of resetting the luxury tax.
if the Padres were willing to take on an underwater contract like Jimenez or Benintendi
=========================
Jimenez wouldn’t move the needle.too much. He is owed $14M and is still serviceable. Benni would move the needle, but his salary is too high for the Padres to slip under the cap.
I can see you read a lot of headlines but not the underlying article and substance.
Benintendi makes $1 million more than Eloy, $15 million to $14 million.
The MLB can’t order anything without opening a huge can of warms. There was no “order “
They can suspend owners or take their teams away in extreme cases if they don’t comply with league rules. So there is that.
Not sure what a huge can of warms are but probably a result of climate change.
lol.
Anyway, its been reported that many of the teams in the league are not in compliance with the debt service rules, and they’d have a huge battle on their hands with the debt service ratios required currently being wildly different from one market to next. Not to mention the mlbpa would get involved.
That is probably a dirty little secret Robby the robot doesn’t want out there as it shows how unlevel a playing field it really is.
But the MLBPA doesn’t have much to say about the ownership of clubs.
Omg…you just nailed it SB!! Well done!
Take a look at the three trades Preller made for Yu Darvish, Blake Snell & Joe Musgrove in a 2 week period three years ago. They dealt 11 or 12 pieces to get those three valuable arms and at this point the biggest piece given up has been David Bednar.
Pre-Soto trade the Padres farm system was already a bottom 10 farm per prospect ranking then easily bottom 5 after the trade. 18 months later it’s a top 5 farm… Preller’s ability to build a farm is pretty much unparalleled. Especially since they picked 15th & 25th in the past two drafts. Heck in the 2021 draft they easily had the best draft with Merrill and Woods both top 10 or 15 overall prospects today despite their first pick being 27th overall.
Well there’s nothing like perceived competition to fuel a trade rumor. So good for the Sox if they did it. And if it’s real, Same thing.
Agreed papi. The ABILITY to rebuild your farm system quickly enables a team like the Pads to go all in and empty the tank, whereas most teams cling tightly to their prospects because they aren’t sure they can replace them and are afraid of getting burned if one becomes a star.
My only suggestion to Preller would be: Bring a third team into your deal if necessary and get a major league OFer back too.
@padrepapi Who’s Woods?
@Devlsh How many of the Padres’ core players are homegrown?
True. More than half of prospects become suspects in the end, yet some teams hold on to them for dear life until they have zero value rather than use them to get legitimate major league talent.
Sorry, he is so tall I get him mixed up with a tree on occasion.
Guessing he’s thinking of James Wood.
80% of prospects ranked in the top 100 will never achieve a 2 war season. Prospects are extremely valuable when you find a good one but there is a lot of risk. There are arguments to be made for using prospects as trade capital instead of using them to build a homegrown team.
legend,
The best way to judge a minor league farm system is to look at both the homegrown talent still on the MLB team AND the talent acquired using your prospects. In fact, a very strong case could be made that if you’ve traded away prospects, most of whom didn’t amount to much, for ML talent that has helped your ballclub, you’re doing even better than if you held onto the prospects yourself.
Personally, I think Prellar churns the roster a bit too much, without allowing the players to settle in and establish a team identity (I believe Schildt will help in that regard) but I have to tip my hat when he’s able to acquire guys like Soto, Musgrove, Darvish, Cronenworth, etc. using fungible assets that he’s then able to replace.
@Devlsh A lot of the prospects (or post-prospects) Preller traded HAVE amounted to much tho.
The Soto trade is not a point in his favor. It’s a point against it. He has not been able to replace the dudes he traded to get him and he did not get comparable value back in the second trade.
They should’ve just signed Rosario.
IE: Dylan Carlson
I’d be interested in an in-depth look at the talent traded away vs. the value netted back. It’s not a crime to give up something to get something, and there’s real value in a tangible asset vs. a potential one. I also think Preller wasn’t as adept at this in his first couple years as he is now, so I’d be inclined to agree with you in that early on, he may have moved young talent in an effort to rapidly build a contender, and failed.
As for Soto, I think it’s too early to tell, and I think fans undervalue what even one season of Soto’s offensive contributions are worth.
Ultimately though, I go back to Preller’s ability to rebuild the farm in rapid fashion, and the current market’s tendency to overvalue prospects. That bodes well for SD IMHO.
Soto, Musgrove, Darvish, Cronenworth,
==========================
IMO, it isn’t so much the value that he gets back as it is the salary he takes on. This is how SD wound up with ~ a $300M payroll.
Kudos on continuing to upgrade the farm, but my guess is that most of us can produce a 90-win team with a $300M payroll.
Mets.
Yankees.
Maybe not.
I think there’s some merit in what you’re saying. That team last year had absolutely no excuse for winning just 82 games.
That said, the operating rules under which Preller is operating have changed, and it’s only fair to acknowledge that. He’s had to reduce costs drastically, after being allowed to spend at will.
Preller, like most people/GMs, have their strengths and their weaknesses. Some fans would LOVE to have a GM that can draft/develop minor league talent, or one that isn’t afraid to make trades to improve their ballclub. But there is an art to building a consistently winning roster, and Preller has yet to demonstrate that skillset.
Logan White is Preller’s secret sauce. There is no executive more skilled at evaluating raw talent than Logan. As long as Logan is whispering in Preller’s ear, AJ is semi-relevant.
Campusano and Merrill are core, I would think
Devlsh like a year ago I went through everyone of their trades looking to see what they lost to what they got
@norcalblue. Good on ya for dropping Logan’s name. And I completely agree. There are a few others, but Logan has been key.
And what’d you decide?
I don’t know your background and it’s certainly above my pay grade, but I think it would take some in-depth analysis to accurately assess cost and benefits, in terms of player salary, WAR, and even opportunity cost and team need.
That said, I’m sure there are several trades that one can fairly ask: which team came out ahead?
For starters, as a Cubs fan, what did your assessment say about the Darvish/Caratini for Davies, Caissie, Preciado, Santana, Mena swap?
well aj preller has traded away the following notable players:
C Yasmani Grandal
SP: Zach Eflin
SS Trea Turner
SP Joe Ross
SP Max Fried
2015 41st pick which became 3B Austin Riley
SP Collin Rea
RP Adam Cimber
RP Brad Hand (while he was rly good)
CP Emmanuel Clase!!! for C Brett Nicholas
RP Phil Maton
RP Matt Wisler
DH Franmil Reyes
SP Eric Lauer
OF Manuel Margot
1B Ty France
CP Andres Munoz (both thosse guys for AUSTIN NOLA)
RP Matt Brash
1B Josh Naylor
SP Cal Quantil
SS Gabriel Arias
OF Owen Cassie (top 100 prospect)
CP David Behnar
OF Esteury Ruiz
SP Robert Glasser (top 100)
SP MacKenzie Gore
SS CJ Abrams
OF James Wood (top 10 prospect)
All to assemble a team that has missed the playoffs 2 out of the 3 last years and doesn’t look like they have a clear shot to make it this year…
that dravish trade is TBD, Davies was decent pitcher in 2021. All the prospects are only just making it to AAA
Didn’t they trade Hunter Renfroe as well? And don’t forget about Robert Hassell III.
There was an excellent team to be built with such players.
Yes, forgot him, couldve been good DH for them this season and years past, tbf they traded him before DH was in NL and they got Tommy Pham and the Crone Zone
I got no clue, all those players I just mentioned makes a pretty damn good team. With money to spend and you still have Tatis lol
fine to list every guy ever traded. But to do so without listing the returns, seems biased.
well half of those players were from preller 1st all in push in 2015, where they got back tony kemp, kimbrel, justin upton, will middlebrooks, james shields, and then proceeded to lose all those said players within a year, giving up Grandal, Turner, Fried, Riley, and Eflin and other of their supposed prized prospects
the 2nd all in push saw them assemble a star studded rotation, but some failed trades are the Austin Nola trade, Clase trade, Adam Fraizer trade, Clevinger trade, Dravish trade is tbd, and the snell trade did work out quite well tho
Cubs, thanks for that., though If you’re going to go that far, then you have to mention a certain nugget that came back from the James Shields trade too (Tatis).
As I said, a true analysis has to weigh a lot of factors other than just the players that were traded away or even the ones that came back (i.e. opportunity cost, salary, team need, etc.).
All in all, it appears a mixed bag, just as I suppose it would for almost any GM.
9/10 prospects even top 100 become suspects
But can’t you say this stuff for almost every team of you want to make the dive?
@Devlsh They could have traded Andrew Cashner or Christian Friedrich for Tatis if they didn’t have Shields to trade. Or just signed Tatis in the first place.
@CubsWin108…
1. Who’s Tony Kemp?
2. Not sure if it’s fair to count Austin Riley among the dudes Preller traded unless you have a crystal ball and know he would have taken Riley with the CBA pick had he not traded it.
Exactly
Won a game in LCS. It’s still an average rotation old Darvish, Musgrove is good not great, Cease had 4.58 era last year
Also wasted billions on hideous contracts
A lineup that has Tatis, Machado, Bogaerts, Kim, Cronenworth (assuming bounce back), and potentially Merrill has the upside to make the playoffs.
A rotation that has Darvish, Cease, Musgrove, and King also has the upside to make the playoffs.
The Padres have a lot of holes, but they could certainly nab a wild card slot and enter the October crapshoot.
The Padres could turn the Soto trade into 2 years of King and Cease for 1 yr of Soto.
@ACK…
1. It will take more than that
2. I’d rather just have CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, James Wood, Bobby Barrels and Jarlin Susana back.
Harambe,
If the Padres had gone to the WS the last two years, I bet you’d think differently. There IS an opportunity cost, and acquiring Soto’s services for a year and a half was worth something.
The jury’s still out on this one, and will be for a while, but most fans were envious of SD when they got Soto. The Cardinals, if memory serves, weren’t willing to give up Dylan Carlson as part of their package; a clear mistake. Again, I applaud teams that make the effort. You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.
@gorilla and Derv. You’re both making good points. I do think it’s not entirely too early to evaluate the first Soto trade, solely on the fact that they lost those 5 players for 2.3 years of chasing a WS with Soto, only to get 1.3 years. They didn’t follow through on “going for it” and that needs to be factored into the opportunity cost.
But yes we’ll see how those young Nats perform, and we’ll see how the 2nd Soto trade works out. If King, Brito, Vasquez and eventually Thorpe deliver, then it makes the first Soto trade less painful.
@Brew’88 They still lose the first Soto trade even if King and the other dudes work out.
@Devlsh But they DIDN’T go to the WS the last two years.
The (first) Soto trade is in the same category as Ruth for $ or Brock for Broglio.
@harambe. Where do I say they win the first Soto trade by what happens in the 2nd Soto trade? I actually said the opposite.
But they could win (big) the 2nd Soto trade IF King, Brito, Vasquez, and maybe Thorpe later in year (or even two of those four) perform well in the rotation this year.
The 2nd trade is unrelated to the 1st trade outcome, but if it goes well for the Pads, it eases a little the mental agony of seeing Abrams and Wood as allstars for years to come.
Not for padres. They depleted and rebuilt their whole farm faster than 1/2 the league could build any sort of farm in the first place. They been doing it for some 10+ years now and are one of the best franchises in baseball at identifying and acquiring young talent
@Shadow Banned – So you’re saying that a top 5 farm system in baseball would be depleted after trading for cease?
So nobody can trade for him without crippling their farm system, got it.
It was Nightengale reporting first a few days ago that the Yankees were interested. Getz would be foolish not to try.
YBC: As usual Getz is asking for too much. However, aiming high might just get someone of value. But it’s Getz, so he’ll probably wind up with a 38 year old minor leaguer and some soon-to-be-dfa’d has-beens.
Or……. Getz is realizing just how cheap his ownership is and doing what his predecessors didn’t. That is playing accordingly. If Reinsdorf is going to be a cheap owner, Getz is going to try and become the Tampa Rays. Trading people who are about to make money for people who are not. In other words, Becoming a team that is in a constant state of rebuild. Hahn and Williams always spent to the limit, Whatever the puny limit was. Looks like Getz is going the opposite direction.
Whatever Getz decides to do, I’m sure it will be the wrong thing.
Lol
Not nutty. Price of a 28yr old most durable pitcher in MLB since 2020 who throws 99 with a wipeout slider.
At worst a solid #2 on any team, #1 on many including the team on the North Side of Chicago.
I know the sox want multiple top prospects for cease, but realistically, what do people think is his real worth?
Whatever the market will pay. If someone is desperate (coughYankeescough) they may overpay for a cost-controlled top 3 starter,
“Whatever the market will pay”
Precisely, DF.
All off season fans on this site have been complaining that Cease isn’t worth their top prospects or that the White Sox are crazy to be asking for the moon and the stars when in reality, Cease is a prized commodity because of his two years of control, reasonable salary, durability, upside and availability.
The White Sox were smart to ask for an over-the-top package, and now it’ll be interesting to see what they get. It won’t be what they asked for, but I’m betting it’s going to be pretty good..
Teams also let the Sox stretch him out in spring training in case of an injury. No rush to make a trade with what the Sox were asking.
Devish: And Cease is also a very good P.
This
I would guess a fair trade would be either 1 top 30 prospect or 2 prospects in the 50-100 range as the centerpiece of the trade. In addition to one of the centerpiece options you would likely add 1-2 young prospects in the lower minors that essentially amount to lottery tickets.
Preller gave up 4 (or 5 IIRC) for Darvish. He had more control and common off a #2 cy young vs a off year.
Caissie is the only one worth a crap from that deal.
So it is hard to tell. It really depends if the Sox want depth or blue chip as most end up as busts
I think the market historically behaves this way: take what White Sox fans say must be traded in order to get the deal done (for Yankees, Dominguez or Jones for example). Then take what the trading team’s fans say they would be willing to trade.
The answer is somewhere in between, more often than not.
Stanton it is then.
YC: Sox fans want Cease to stay. Cease and Robert are the only reason to watch the WS. Both will be gone soon. But I’ll get to former Sox players that should have been kept. When the Yankees play the Marlins I’ll see Burger and TA. Yankees vs. Padres, Cease. Yankees vs. Astros, Abreu.
1-FG has Cease projected for 3.1 WAR. For two seasons, you get 6.2, plus possibly a QO.
2-I’d like to double Cease’s projection to account for risk. That would be a 55 FV, plus maybe a rising 40-45. Good trades for the WS are maybe:
SD-Lesko or Snelling + DeVries
NYY-Jones or Dominguez + Arias
BA-Mayo + Westburg
They likely won’t get that much, but they would be appropriate targets.
Lesko/Snellng + DeVries would buy 2 Ceases
Lol. Every fan says that. Now you can go back to losing this year
Apparently one article, which of course I can’t find now, said the yankee offer was now Pereira, hampton, warren, peraza, cabrera.
Not sure if there’s any truth to it at all
Here’s Cashman’s new offer, “My offer is this: nothing. Not even the $20,000 for the gaming license, which I would appreciate if you would put up personally.”
If the padres traded Devries a month after getting him stateside they would never sign a top international free agent from the Dominican again. Think before you post.
Chicago is not getting any of those packages.
Dylan Cease is commanding as much interest right now as beer on St. Patrick’s Day
Have to unfortunately give the Sox FO credit for playing this card perfectly. They didn’t bite on what I’m sure were some solid offers a couple months back. 3-4 big pitcher injuries later and he’s the hottest girl at the dance. They’ll get a nice package.
You said it perfectly bruthur
Interesting how teams are pivoting from Snell and Montgomery and looking again at Cease despite the lofty ask. These same teams, for the most part, would face hefty luxury taxes for signing Snell and Montgomery and may be wondering whether losing the prospect capital is cheaper than huge asks for Snell and Monty plus the luxury tax (and possibly losing draft picks, draft priority, and international signing dollars).
Dude is only making $8M this year. And is under control for another cheap year. It makes sense.
Because one is a mid-rotation arm seeking a 7 year commitment that was never realistic and the other thinks because he has a pair of trophies that he is worth a decade long deal worth hundreds of millions for 5 innings every 5 days. Over played, Unrealistic expectations that seemingly haven’t dropped as we get closer and closer to opening day is why teams are gravitating towards Cease and other trade candidate starters
It could also be pointed out that Dylan Cease has been a “5 innings” pitcher like Blake Snell because of his similar command issues and lofty strikeout numbers. Cease is younger than Snell and has had just one season that merited CYA consideration.
The main advantage Cease has is his cheap two years of arbitration control and status as MLB’s most durable starting pitcher during the past 4 seasons. Of course, durability is an iffy proposition with any pitcher. The pitcher just behind Cease with the most games started beginning in 2020 was Gerrit Cole who is facing a potentially lengthy IL stint to begin the 2024 season.
Montgomery didn’t pitch well for the nyy or Cards. He goes to Texas, has a great post-season. If he goes to another team, he might not be the same P we saw with the Rangers. Because of that, I would put Cease in the same class as Monty.
Monty was pretty good as a fifth starter for the Yankees and even better for the Cards.
I suggest you look again. Montgomery pitched just fine for the Cardinals, and I don’t think anyone in Stl regrets giving up Harrison Bader for him.
I think that is fair. But it would be cheaper to sign Bauer and you would get a better pitcher.
Who’s Bauer?
Not sure the Padres want to part with any top 5 prospects. Sure we have some guys, that we want to keep.
Every team wants to keep their prospects.They also want to keep their money. Oh, and they want to win!
Nightengale will begin to start rumors about interested teams – as he often does. This has been his ongoing work on behalf of the White Sox and his buddy Reinsdorf.
Zero chance the Pads give up Merrill, Salas, Thorpe, or Snelling. Gotta believe just about anyone else is on the table. If I were AJ, I’d try to get Vaughn too.
Say what you will about Preller, but he keeps the Madres very entertaining. He kicks the tires on everyone. We never know what he is going to do next, good or bad.
The goal isn’t to be entertaining it’s to win ballgames.
That’s the crux of the matter, ain’t it? Sports is just entertainment, it is the toy department of life. Not everyone can win at the end, so it is better to be entertaining than not, right?
I am entertained by my team winning
The San Diego Chicken was entertaining though, during those 12-1 drubbings back in the Murph
920kodiak
Muted (“Madres”)
Who exactly was talking to you?
Right back at ya, brother.
We do know he’s not going over the LTT.
Exactly 920. There are so many clubs who just sit on their hands and go after marginal guys on cheap salaries. At least AJ tries (although yes..the results leave a lot to be desired.)
Don’t do it. It will just be Soto trade 2.0 (or Myers trade 3.0 lol)
Agree don’t want to overpay for a 4.5 ERA guy. You can get 4.5 ERA out of a good number of guys already there.
But hes not a “4.5 era guy”
If you’ve paid any attention, he’s generally a very strong pitcher in the low 3s high 2s. His 4.5 last year was the exception, not the rule
Cease has a 3.83 lifetime ERA. That is who he is. That is a plus pitcher but far from an ace.
Yeah, 3.83 isn’t spectacular but it’s pretty good, though I’m not sure he’s trending in the right direction after last year’s drop in ERA and fastball velo.
For the heck of it here’s some guys with slightly lower carrer ERAs for comparision:
Clevinger: 3.45
Musgrove: 3.72
Collin McHugh: 3.72
Alex Wood: 3.73
Marcus Stroman: 3.65
Lance Lynn: 3.73
Kyle Hendricks: 3.48
Jose Quintana: 3.74
Johnny Cueto: 3.50
1-4 of Cease, Musgrove, Darvish, and King would be pretty solid and give some insurance for Musgrove’s recovery and Darvish’s age-related decline. I imagine it starts with Thorpe, 1 of Lesko/Snelling, Marsee, and maybe a lower-level lottery type.
No chance. Cease isn’t worth more than a couple prospects in the 10-15 range. Marsee would be possible, but if the Sox ask for Thorpe, Lesko, or Snelling, I’m guessing AJ would fall out of his chair laughing.
There are far too many suitors for the White Sox to accept a trade without one of the Thorpe/Lesko/Iriarte/Snelling types and more. If Salas, Merril, De Vries, and I’m guessing Pauley are off the table, who else is available? White Sox didn’t stand pat once to take prospects outside the top 100.
Iriarte, Mazur, Marsee, Zavala, etc..Any one of those 4 would immediately be a top 3 prospect for the Sox.
I would be stunned if White Sox don’t walk away with at least one top 100 prospect in the return, but I do think Iriarte, Mazur, Marsee, and Zavala could be intriguing if they really want to diversify their prospect package.
As for off-the-table guys. I would say they are Salas, DeVries, Snelling and Lesko, but Cease would likely not likely command even one of those dudes in a trade. Thorpe, Zavala are top 100 but I could see one of them them being included in a trade for Cease. And Head, Marsee, Mazur, Pauley and Iriarte are knocking on the top 100 door.
Remember that “match up” thingy Preller keeps talking about? It’s a real thing. I don’t believe that GM’s are thinking like the majority of fans apparently do on this site.
W.S. Getz: “Umm.. we’ll give you Dylan Cease for … ah.. lemme see, .. yeah, Salas, Merrill, Lesko, Snelling, Thorpe, … oh… and throw in that De Vries kid, cause he looks kinda interesting”.
Pads Preller: “Go fish. We’ll counter with the number 25 thru 30 guys on MLB’s Padres top 30 list … oh.. and we’ll throw in the bat boy .. he’s getting a little long in the tooth.”
Naw … it don’t work like that. The W.S. will be looking not just at talent, but at Padres depth versus where their farm system is a little thin. Yeah, maybe they need to get one or two better arms back, but they don’t have to be MLB top 100 guys to get the job done, if the Pads are offering prospects that will fill their needs. Sure, the headliner prospects will make the news, but they won’t necessarily make the deal.
And again, as I’ve said in the past, NO GM will trade an Ethan Salas, unless maybe for active MLB players equivalent to difference makes in the top 5%. And, no GM will trade their “Tatis” or “Machado’s” for a top prospect. The Yankees Soto deal came about as close to that kind of deal, as one will find.
It’s really about matchups (as you likely know, Brew),
Brew-Lesko just hasn’t shown enough yet imo..Personally, I’d be willing to include him in a deal if the Sox needed a top 100 guy as part of it.
Yeah Lesko was set back by injury, so this year will be his year in the minors to show his merit. His upside is as high as any SP prospect though, and higher than Snelling. Trading him now would likely be trading low, and could be very regrettable.
LOL too many suitors yet no one wants to pay.
Sox get 1 prospect in the mlb top 50 from the Padres if at all, probably get a couple of Padres top 20 prospects but especially after a down year, he’s not gonna get anything close to a package that the nats got for soto
Maybe Trevor Baurer should grow a mustache and try to fool everyone that he is Dylan Cease
I wonder if that would work?
For years, the Latin American prospects used to use someone else’s passport/identity to get drafted; perhaps Trevor ought follow that same path.
Yankees sign Tio Baurez!
And he can get JP Morosi to translate for him
JP is really gifted in speaking Spanish
Who’s Trevor Baurer?
His New Name
Only if the back of his jersey says “Mr. Snrub”…
The disguise worked for Bobby Valentine
Bobby V won baseball that day.
In terms of need, SD makes the most sense. Texas and NYY could benefit, but could also survive without.
Poor Dylan Cease might end up in another bad situation where we won’t pitch in the postseason (NYY or SD).
No, White Sox are in a much worse situation. Going to the Padres or Yankees at least gets him to teams that are trying to win in 2024. White Sox are a 65-win team.
Very true.
True. Always possible Sox can benefit from a Cease trade. I see the Sox winning 64-67 regardless of what they do with Cease.
Sept both teams are actually trying to win, SD may be cutting payroll and going on a youth movement, but if their players even just play to their career norms, they have a playoff caliber team
Since Cease is basically a less talented version of Blake Snell, there would be reason for the Padres to be interested.
Still not sure why anyone would pay 4:1 for him when Snell, Bauer, and Montgomery are all free agents. Hell, Bauer costs league minimum and no draft picks.
I see it in the peripherals, but Cease has a lot less deviation year-to-year from his career averages.
I still don’t see the hype for Cease.
Averaged 175 innings and a mid-90s FB the past three seasons, lots of Ks, owed $8M this year, and controlled through 2025. It’s an enticing package overall.
When put that way, it makes better sense. However, a haul of prospects might be a bit much with Snell still on the open market.
Were CBT not a factor, I would rather have Snell on a short, high-AAV deal with opt-outs.
Could be more to the eye as to why Drew Thorpe went 4 innings yesterday. Not going to make the roster. CHISox scouts in attendance?
He may very well make the roster.
I think 4 innings is pretty reasonable for most pitchers at this point of the spring. Still ~2 weeks of spring training for everyone but SD and LA
They also have to play 2 exhibition games in Korea. Another possibility is they want him to come on the trip as one of the 31 in the traveling party and they could try to have him eat half a games worth of innings in an exhibition to keep the bullpen fresh.
He is not on the 40 man. I think he would have to be added to make the trip. That would make no sense if he is just going to pitch in an exhibition. I think they were showcasing him to the Sox.
@fandan I don’t think they need to go on the 40 man to travel because they can take 31 in the traveling party. To play against LAD in Korea, I 100% agree that he would need to occupy a 40 man and 26 man spot.
Schildt said yesterday in his presser that the LG Twins and Team Korea game were being managed as if they were spring training games and it’s possible they’ll bring pitchers who would throw in those games but not in the regular season ones. King and Brito are going to be available out of the pen in the LAD games so someone is going to have to pitch in the exhibitions…
Thorpe’s been outstanding this spring. Guessing he’s the 4th or 5th starter when the season starts.
Not a chance.
They have 3 open roster spots, and he pitched better this spring than anyone else who was competing for a spot.
So yes..there is a chance.
@FirstRound. Thorpe has only gone more than 2 innings once this spring, and is not in the running at all for the 4 or 5. Brito and Waldron have been lights out, and Vasquez has been very good. Avila was probably leading the group going into spring but has struggled a bit and is not likely to land a rotation spot. Thorpe will start season in minors.
Thorpe is interesting, but I don’t see how he’s ahead of Brito or Waldron, who have had better spring results and are already on the 40-man.
Once the Korea nonsense is over and the active roster returns to 26, they will carry 13 pitchers. The limit. They have the following 19 pitchers on the 40 man already. Please identify the 7 they will cut to put Thorpe in the bullpen. Or do you think he should be a starter? Avila, Brito, Cosgrove, Darvish, De Los Santos, Estrada, King, Go, Koleck, Matsui, Morejon, Musgrove, Patino, Peralta, Suarez, Vasquez, Waldron, Wilson. Some are easy, I grant you.
How have they had better springs than Thorpe, who hasn’t allowed a run?
Brito and Waldron have pitched almost twice as many innings as Thorpe with better peripherals.
Spot on, Brew. Thorpe needs more minor league innings, and I’d guess he’ll start in AA, where the Pads are sending their future stars, to create a nucleus of winners. Salas ended there last year for that reason.
Aside: I’ve heard authoritative commentators say that Salas will CERTAINLY start at high A Fort Wayne, but I’ll bet based on his 2024 Spring Training performance, he ends up at AA. (The only thing that might change that is other high level catchers in the system, i.e. they’re not going to send Valenzuela back to high A so that Salas can go to AA, and they’re going to ensure all their prospects have enough playing time, so …).
Anyhow, that kind of impacts Thorpe’s assignment, too. I’m sure that the Pads will want Thorpe at AA, but depending on balance, they could bump him to AAA, instead. No doubt he’s in the short queue for a spot start call up. As we both know, the Padres are going to need 10 to 12 starters before the 2024 season is over, and getting Thorpe some experience, ready in the wings, is a pretty good plan.
I’m pretty sure that the rotation will be Yu and Musgrove, King, Britto, and Waldron (hmm, any of those guys left handed? anyhow …).
They could use a lefty SP for sure but it does seem like Brito and Waldron as 4&5.. King has been equally effective L v R, as is Darvish, so that helps. With recent arm issues for Darvish and Musgrove, inexperience (in terms of number of innings) of King, Brito, Vasquez and Waldron, they will definitely need more starters! It wouldn’t surprise me if Thorpe or Iriarte are summoned by June. Or Avila if he shows well. Status of Morejon is an enigma for me right now.
I have wondered how the Pads will handle Valenzuela ( who is a premium prospect in his own right) with Salas breathing down his back. But I think you’re right that Salas end up in AA soon.
Morejon is just sunk costs at this point. They spent a lot of money on him. He’s been chronically injured. If they get any value from him, it’s a plus, but his signing and development will never be enough of a win to offset the original mistake.
MLB is a crap shoot. Stuff like this just happens, and it happens to all clubs. Morejon seems like a decent guy, just kinda tragic for him.
Valenzuela should be prime trade bait. A team doesn’t want to put all of it’s eggs on one basket (i.e. look how long it’s taken for Campy to develop), but Salas seems like a safe enough bet that they could move Valenzuela for some piece they need.
As a sought-after catcher commodity, Valensuela might have more trade value than many of the other Pads top 10 prospects. Plus, they can’t likely convert him to OF (joking).
Morejon got rocked by the As today. They were hoping for 2 innings from him but got 0.2 instead (6 hits, 4 runs). They are still trying to make it work with him.
Like I said ….
Haha, very perceptive! Hang your hat on that one 🙂
Don’t do it AJ. They will want WAY too much. We don’t need Alek Manoh 2.0. He is better than Manoh, but you know where I’m going here.
I have to smile a bit at all the negativity here, but I do agree that for a #2 TOR type pitcher (which the Pads need), Cease has too many red flags for the cost.
Yeah… but …
Snell had all kinds of red flags, too (which is probably the main reason he’s still on the market, other than “the Boras factor”), and he kinda worked out, eventually. Just don’t overpay, I guess is the main thing.
I recall these discussions back when Tatis was in AA, heading to the MLB like a rocket. Fans from other teams would say ‘Hey, it’s Tatis or no one. We’re not gonna take your chopped liver prospects for our pearl prospect …”. It’s always that way, and it’s happening here, too. I don’t mind W.S. fans (and Padres haters) overvaluing their guy. However, reality bites pretty hard. In fact, the Padres have a whole lot of prospects not named Merrill, Salas, etc. who would have immense value to the W.S., particularly if they balance out their farm system.
We’ll see what happens, but yeah, smiling here to. You can never have enough pitching, which is why ….ah…. Preller shouldn’t trade any Padres minor leaguer pitchers for Cease. 🙂 Ours are all golden, ya know?
It has become apparent that in the last few days and hours almost everyone is after Cease – that is accept the White Sox. Jerry you don’t have a lot of reason for fans to come to your ballpark- maybe you should think about keeping him.
I understand the sentiment, but why torture Cease by keeping him with a team that is not going to be competitive and there’s an opportunity to send him to a team that will be competitive.
I blv it’s time for the Yankees to say goodbye to Indiana Jones…and others.
So the new “price is right” will include both Jasson and Jones to get Cease now. Cash says Darn you SD and all the other mystery Teams involved !
And Cash could have gotten away with it too, if it wasn’t for that pesky Cole MRI.
Has AJ Preller even had an offseason if he hasn’t shipped out a significant portion of his top prospects relative to that year?
…. and yet, the Padres still have a top 5 or 6 farm system. Maybe the Pads should make the guy who’s signing all those top minor leagers the new GM.
Oh … he already is the GM.
Unfortunately those top 6 farm systems, rated by who exactly, has not produced one WS appearance in the entire time Preller has been there. So, who cares about the Farm? It’s the ML roster that matters.
I will say that very few of their highly rated prospects have actually panned out as expected. But they still seem to draft and develop top 100s over and over, which has obviously helped w some trades.
And surprise surprises the Red Sox are nowhere near this even tho they lost their opening day starter god for bid Henry listen to the fans for once
If a trade is going to happen, it will happen today so they can haul him to Korea instead of him waiting weeks for them to return
They are only playing two games in Korea. Musgrove and Darvish are already announced. They wouldn’t need to pull something off for another week to 10 days.
Or…
Everyone going to Korea is already on the roster. No way they could get VISA’s to get Cease there, if they made the trade today.
Actually, lol, Preller is in no hurry to make that deal. He won’t need a 5th starter until maybe the end of April, in any case..
All these journalists renewing interest for Cease at Boras’s bidding
They need to Cease and desist.
This does Snell and Monty no favors and further stalls their markets.
Cease has different timetable / investment than FA pitchers. These 2 markets don’t completely overlap.
It begs the question: Who/What IS the market for Snell and Monty?
Given the tax repercussions for the top spenders and the financial limitations for the middle/lower tier, plus the fact that most teams have already set/allotted their budget/payroll, whose left?
And do any of those teams want to sign a guy to a pillow contract (2-3 years with an opt out after the first year), especially in Snell’s case where you lose a draft pick too? You’d have to be a true contender to justify that.
Giants? Angels? Not really true contenders
Texas? Padres? Don’t seem to be in financial shape to do it.
I think unless they reduce their demands or a surprise team emerges (Cubs, for example), it looks like both those guys will be unsigned come Opening Day.
someone besides the Rangers please trade for this mediocre pitcher so I don’t have to hear about him anymore. if I want to see a pitcher with control problems I’ll go watch Jack Leiter pitch
nothing. I’m a Rangers fan and that’s why I don’t want cease on the team. you can get rid of Leiter but I wouldn’t get rid of Porter. he may end up being the only pitcher that Texas developed in the last 40 years.
Put me down for a no – track record verses the ask in relation to the difference between Cease 2025 and say, Britto (or others) 2025 just isn’t worth it.
What it might translate to 2-4 more wins in 2025?
Keep the young guys and roll.
Per usual the Padres are a total mess. On one side of the clubhouse a bunch of over 30 guys on underwater contracts. On the other side AA guys playing out of position to fill holes.
The team spent the entire offseason next level committed to saving $$$ trying out young players. So of course they will blow that up a week before their season starts, trade a bunch of young guys for an overhyped veteran that will be gone in two years anyway.
All while the fanbase believes AJ Preller is the best GM in baseball.
Stop me if you have heard this before.
Putting aside the fact you’re assuming how this will play out, feasibility notwithstanding, it probably doesn’t help the new stand-in owner has signaled Preller is on the hot seat, at the same time he has a mandate to cut payroll. This puts pressure on Preller to make a trade that might not be advisable in the long term.
Pretty silly if you ask me. If they were going to fire Preller, they should have done it after ’21 or ’23. Since they did not, they might as well commit to Shildt and Preller for the foreseeable future.
I agree with your sentiment that this is the type of deal that Preller would make to try and win now while compromising the future. In fact I’d say he has acted out of necessity in this regard alot in the last few years.
He should’ve been fired after last season, Given the results vs. money spent, the multiple managers, the fireworks with Melvin, the team quitting multiple times etc. what exactly do people need to see to fire this guy? He tried rock star GM’ing in 2015 and failed, he tried building it from the ground up from 2016-2019 and failed, he tried trading all his assets to upgrade from 2020-2022 and failed, he spent at record levels in 2023 and failed. If none of that gets a guy fired what does???
@99socalfrc All fair points.
My counterpoints are Preller is a maestro at restocking the farm, and as a former San Diego Charger fan, I remember what happened after they got rid of the “Lord of No Rings” GM, AJ Smith.
The grass ain’t always greener on the other side. They ended up with the “Lord of No Division Titles”, Tom Telesco.
Preller’s time is running out, objectively. But danged if the man can’t reload a farm system and quick.
I think AJP has a longer leash today than many believe. My guess is that the Pads FO went public stating that everyone is responsible (for last year), including Preller, not because AJ’s on the hot seat, but for public relations reasons.
Preller hasn’t performed this offseason like a GM needing to win now at all costs to save his job. Seidler went for it, AJ worked for Seidler, but with his passing they seem to be trying to recover while still competing this year and long-term.
@Brew88 Fair take on the interim owner’s comments.
I still would interpret his words to mean Preller’s team has to perform well, or it’s not out of the question he could be gone. But you’re right that the interim owner said everyone shared responsibility for ’23.
@99socalfrc
W … T …. F?
Hey dude, it’s WAY too early to be drinking THAT much …
“Total mess?” your nuts.
“Stop me if you have heard this before.”
STOP!! STOP!! STOP!! STOP!! STOP!! STOP!! STOP!!
(lol, thank you!)
Stop, in the name of love before you break my heart….
Do the Padres even have prospects left? We all know the brother of Leo Getz is gonna asked for a kings ransom for Cease.
They’ve got a top 5 system in baseball. Salas, Merrill, Snelling, Lesko, and Thorpe are all top 100 prospects, and they’ve got 3-5 others who just missed the list. They’re stacked.
And that right there is why I both expect AJ Preller to keep his job, and why I am cool with it as this point.
Ownership should commit fully to Preller and Shildt for the next three years. What could it hurt? If they were going to fire Preller, the time to do it was after 2021 or 2023. To retain him, but signal he is on the hot seat even though he now has to cut payroll, is silly.
Shildt should have received a three year contract.
Mr Schildt:
Here’s a 82 win team: go win this year.
Oh, BTW, you don’t get Josh Hader. Or the 2023 CY Young winner Snell. Or Soto. Or Wacha, Lugo or N. Martinez.
Getz is gonna want at least 2x as what the white Sox got when they originally acquired Cease from the Cubs. Besides the DJ LeMahieu trade for Ian Stewart. I bet Cease and Eloy for Jose Quintana was Theo’s most regrettable trades. Although He likely doesn’t trade Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel for Addison Russell and journeyman player Billy McKinney if he still has LeMahieu at 2nd.
How about stopping the Cease headlines until he is actually traded. 5+ months is enough lazy journalism.
The website says MLB Trade RUMORS.
Rumors:
1
: talk or opinion widely disseminated with no discernible source
2
: a statement or report current without known authority for its truth
Here you go. Enjoy commenting there!
mlb.com/transactions/2024/03/13
Haha
Why not spend the same $8-9m and sign JD Martinez? You have no DH and bringing him on costs you zero prospects.
Dh is manny for who knows how long.
Padres prospects are way better than Yankees. I know Salas looks to be future top end catcher, 1 for 1 swap should done in a heartbeat. In the end Padres would have spent 5 mil of international pool money to get a top 25 SP qith control for 2 more years. That is a no brainer.
Wonder if the Sox would take Cronenworth back in a deal. Maybe something like Cronenworth, Marsee, Mazur, and Iriarte for Cease and Vaughn..
That offer looks very thin to me, especially when you’re saddling the other team with Cronenworth’s contract AND getting Vaughn. None of Marsee, Mazur or Iriarte are even among the top five prospects in the Padre system.
If that was the offer, i’d be pivoting to Texas and the Yankees.
I don’t know man..Mazur and Iriarte could be starting in the majors as early as mid season, and Crone still has a little value as a Swiss Army knife guy who can play any IF position. Plus Marsee will be ready soon. Plus, all are controllable for the next 5yrs..which holds a lot of value.
We’re not talking about an ace here..and Vaughn’s bat is meh (but with potential).
Keep in mind, your offer has to not only appeal to the White Sox, it has to be the best offer they get. And none of those guys is a top 100 prospect. I think there has to be a headliner in the deal, or multiple bottom half top 100 prospects.
Moreover, Cronenworth is a negative asset at this point, given his contract. Remove him and Vaughn from the deal, and I think you’re still a substantial player short.
Rosenthal reported yesterday that the Sox and Rangers were talking about Duran, Porter, and Leiter for Cease..
Marsee, Mazur, and Iriarte alone is a better package than that.
Only they didn’t make a deal, so if the offer WAS for Duran, Porter and Leiter, it apparently wasn’t enough.
Iriarte is rated higher than snelling via fangraphs. Mazur also looks like a legit pitcher. Marsee may have made the padres team this year if Merrill didn’t move to center. He has raked everywhere.
Sox will prob want a rated guy to sell to the fan base but all 3 of the guys above are legit prospects. I could see the padres trading one or two of head, Zavala or marsee with Merrill now playing center. Prob one or two of Brito, Vasquez, Lesko, Thorpe, Iriarte or Mazur. Padres have 15 very good prospects. Keep in mind ratings are different from site to site and org ratings I’m sure are different than even those.
Many padre fans (and some prospect rankers), value iriarte over snelling fwiw
Dillon Head, Drew Thorpe, Samuel Zavala and Jhony Brito, maybe…
That might do it. If I were the Sox, I’d be very tempted.
As a padre fan, I’m passing on that unless we take head out.
Pretty close, …619!
Cease would work out well on any team that has a good pitching coach. Cease needs a little adjustment and apparently Chicago hasn’t been up to doing that for him.
Might be the Sox plan after gutting the team. No one watches games there anyways.
Preller has done this before, make a big deal right before the season starts, so if he did make a deal for Cease it won’t be a surprise.
Here’s wishful thinking….. 3 way deal. Cease to Padres, Thorpe back to the Yanks, Everson Pereira from Yanks to Sox and another top 5 Padre prospect back to Sox.
Good to see that I make a statment calling the imbalanced coverage of teams, and we’re now getting articles about the other teams after Dylan Cease.
Yanks will get him if they are willing to give up Jones, otherwise, I’m not seeing it.
From the padres, take your pick of *one* of Snelling/Thorpe/Iriarte and then maybe you get some back-end options like Waldron, Avila, and then another good prospect like Mazur or Marsee.
Rangers, feels like the best prospect you can hope for is Walcott, who I’m not sure beats Jones or one of the Padres pitchers.
I hope Padres don’t put that on the table for Cease.
This will blow up in Padres face
Adams is a terrible writer. “The team’s chances of competing with that group vying for only the final spot in the rotation, obviously, would be far greater than needing to rely on two names from that unproven group to carry the back end of the staff.” What a mouthful! And “obviously” is obviously in the wrong place. It needs to be after “would.” Get rid of Adams and Deeds, MLBTR.