The Padres have left open the possibility of bringing in veteran outfield help well into Spring Training. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes that the Friars are still involved in the respective markets for free agents Michael A. Taylor, Adam Duvall and Tommy Pham, among others. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin has also linked the Padres to Pham on a few occasions in recent weeks.
Taylor is the only viable everyday center fielder still on the open market. He remains one of the sport’s top defensive outfielders as he nears his 33rd birthday. By measure of Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average, Taylor rated anywhere between five to seven runs above par in nearly 1000 innings of center field work for the Twins a year ago. DRS has credited him with 65 runs saved at the outfield’s most important spot over his decade in the major leagues.
That’s sufficient to make Taylor a viable bottom-of-the-lineup regular so long as he’s contributing anything offensively. He did enough at the plate in Minnesota, connecting on a personal-high 21 home runs and stealing 13 bases over 388 plate appearances. Taylor has some power, although it comes with a lot of empty at-bats. He punched out more than a third of the time en route to a .220 average and very poor .278 on-base mark. Taylor has gotten on base less than 30% of the time in three of his last four seasons.
The offensive inconsistency has led teams to shy away from his asking price. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal wrote last week that Taylor views himself similarly to fellow glove-first center fielders Kevin Kiermaier and Harrison Bader, each of whom signed for one year and $10.5MM earlier this offseason. While he is coming off a superior platform year to Bader and doesn’t have the same injury history as Kiermiaer, it’s hard to envision Taylor finding that kind of salary a few from Opening Day.
That’s particularly true from a San Diego team that has spent much of the offseason cutting payroll. From a roster perspective, though, the Padres might be the most straightforward fit. José Azocar is a .249/.292/.341 hitter in 153 big league contests. He has rated as a quality defender in his own right, but he might have an even lighter bat than Taylor does.
The Padres will probably want to keep Azocar in a fourth outfield capacity. As things stand, that’d likely mean calling upon Jackson Merrill as their starting center fielder. Merrill, 20, hasn’t played above Double-A. Primarily a shortstop prospect, he has worked in the outfield this spring. The lefty-hitting Merrill is one of the sport’s top minor league talents, but relying on him as a starting center fielder would be a gamble even for a San Diego team that is generally aggressive about promoting its prospects.
Merrill has zero minor league innings at the position. That’s on top of his limited experience facing advanced pitching. The former first-round pick has held his own at the plate this spring, hitting .286/.355/.357 in 31 trips to the plate. He’s drawn three walks while striking out twice but only has two extra-base hits (both doubles).
Further complicating matters, the Padres don’t have a clear solution in left field. Even if the Friars feel Merrill is ready to face big league arms, they could play him in left to accommodate a Taylor signing. That’d bump Jurickson Profar to the bench. So too would signing one of Duvall of Pham, both of whom are righty-hitting corner options. They’re similarly valuable players, as MLBTR’s Nick Deeds explored over the weekend. Duvall brings more power to the table, while Pham is more consistent at getting on base.
In any case, the Padres will need to make some kind of outfield transaction in the next few days. Azocar, Profar and Fernando Tatis Jr. are the only outfielders on the 40-man roster. Minor league signees Óscar Mercado, Tyler Wade and Brad Miller remain on the major league side of camp as possible bench additions.
San Diego is faced with those questions sooner than almost anyone else. They begin their regular season with a two-game series against the Dodgers in South Korea on March 20-21. The Padres will fly to Seoul two days from now. Acee notes that if they do sign a veteran outfielder, that player would likely skip the Korea series and remain in minor league camp to build up for the rest of the season.
At this point they should sign both. Have Taylor be the everyday Center Fielder and use Duvall as a LF/DH/CF
At this point they should continue to commit to the extraordinarily talented rookie Merrill in CF. He is ready. But a veteran L-hitting LF improvement over Profar would be smart.
MOST of the NRI’s and prospects had good Springs. Based only upon that track record, the Padres don’t need outfield help. However, that’s a small sample size. The problem is that of the available options in house and NRI, few have much of a MLB track record (or a strong enough MLB track record to guarantee they’ll be an adequate contributor).
I’d just as soon go with Tyler Wade, Profar, Azocar, Merrill, and Tatis for the outfield., and add Pauley for the 3B/DH/Bench. Yeah, that’s 5 guys and I didn’t do the detailed math, but I think tht covers the position players. I think there’s enough defense in that group, and honestly, don’t expect much more offense from the FA’s that the author described.
Ideally, a playoff bound team wouldn’t promote more than 1 or 2 prospects in a year, but the Pads aren’t dealing with an ideal situation. Pauley and Merrill merit being on the starting day roster. The Pads will need any money they save for changes/upgrades later in the season.
The Padres will take 31 players with them to Korea. They don’t have to cut the roster down to 26 until 3/28.
A few guys that are not going to make the 26 man roster for the home opener on 3/28 will make the trip to Korea for Opening Day.
Its likely that they bring a 3rd catcher so Sullivan will make the roster. Pitchers are not going to be going 6 innings and its probable that they may be stopped at 5 innings so extra relievers is likely. Avila, De Los Santos, and Patino are out of options, so unless they are placed on the 60 day IL, they will all make the trip. That leaves one spot for a fringe position player.
Unless there is a trade by Tuesday, my thoughts are that the travel roster will be:
Position players (14)
OF – Tatis, Merrill, Azocar
IF – Cronenworth, Bogaerts, Kim, Machado, Campusano, Pauley
Bench – Higgy, Sullivan, Profar, Rosario, and one more – Mercado, Miller, Wade, Batten?
Pitching (17)
Darvish, Musgrove, King, Brito, Waldron
Suarez, Peralta, Matsui, Wilson, Cosgrove, De Los Santos, Go, Estrada, Vasquez, Avila, Patino, and one more. Kolek? Morejon?
Maybe they go with 15 position players and 16 pitchers and ship Kolek back to the Mariners since he was a Rule 5 pick.
Going to be interesting.
Some good projections. I would think Batten is the “one more” bench guy, but Wade seems to be gaining traction. Kolek has looked good this spring. Morejon hasn’t been in a lot of games and I have to wonder if his status slipping. Will be interesting for sure. I guess we’ll know tomorrow.
From what I have seen so far, Morejon has mostly been in backfields action. As you said, we will know tomorrow.
Batten has been sent to minor league camp he isn’t going to Korea. Kolek is definitely going to Korea and I think he even makes the 26 man. Dude has been very good all spring.
Merrill is on record saying that he sees the ball better in center and can be more free and easy.
Bigger team building mystery: Padres outfield or Giants rotation?
Webb
Harrison
Hicks
Winn
Black
There. Mystery Solved.
So like 3 bullpen games a week?
I’d take Taylor over Pham and Duvall. That said, I would not give Michael anything more than 5 or 6 mil for 2024. If that doesn’t get a deal done, there is always the trade route…
But Taylor is Grisham. They can do better.
They already have. His name is Merrill and they have a backup for him in Azocar.
I think they’ll eventually sign Pham for around $7 million and he will get 70% of the starts in LF with Profar covering the rest. I’d go with a Merrill (70%} and Azocar (30%) split in CF. Mercado should make the team if they sign no one.
That’s a good idea, other than the fact I can’t stand Pham…….lol
If they use $7M on Pham, then it leaves them little $ for SP or 1B/DH bat, which are probably higher priorities. And my sentiments coincide with Vermonster. If they’re going down this year, let it not be with Pham.
Taylor is not worth 10.5 mil.
Apparently the guy in his mirror tells him different?
All the teams have told him is not worth that or he would have already signed.
Fair enough boys, let’s not rush into anything hey, they time to do their due diligence… sarcasm…. Its an Aussie trait
Just sign both to 1 or 2 year deals, if they aren’t contending they become good trade pieces come July
hr and anither double for Merrill today. has been taking 1st team starts in center for over a week. seems like he is the clear option.
Merrill in CF yep. Save the $ and get a LF/DH with slug, preferably a L bat.
As long as the LF/DH’s AREN’T named Duvall or Pham, and don’t cost $20M a year, yeah, let’s get ‘er done, AJP. /sarcasm
Agreed! Plus they need L bat. And highest priority with what $ they have might be another SP ( via trade, perhaps)
They should go get JD Davis and move Jake to OF
Noooo! He’s just a right handed Eric Hosmer.
Duvall, Pham and Taylor are RH hitters, and the Pads need a L bat, so don’t waste $ on any of them.
This late in the offseason I’d take another bat regardless of handedness to help lengthen the lineup. You are right though that they really do skew heavily RH and could use a LH more.
I think Pham or Duvall in LF probably help the lineup, but I don’t see the appeal of Taylor because they need a bat. Really not a lot of other options to get an above average hitter at this point in FA unless they want to get Belt to DH
Tyler Wade has a LF bat, and he’s available for the MLB minimum, I believe.
Salt – I watched Wade for a week in Peoria and honestly, with his defense, along with small sample size ST bat, I’d take him at league minimum over any of the other guys currently available. His offense won’t be much less than those guys.
Now, there may be some new faces next week on the waiver wire.
Duvall and Pham would play left. Merrill will be the CF, add that with Pauley who is going to make the team playing third. Plus cronenworth and sometimes profar. That gives 3/4 lefties in every lineup. They may keep wade as well given them another option. So lefty hitters are less of a need as long as the ones they have actually hit.
It seems to me that the Padres strategy is to hold off on any big move until later in the season to see if they are still in it and then maybe spend their money so they don’t go over the competition tax line
Pham said a few days ago that the Padres had not talked to him at all.
Taylor is asking for a multi-year deal at $10 million AAV. Padres aren’t going to be spending that kind of money on Grisham 2.0.
With Merrill looking like he has won the CF spot and having a decent backup in Azocar and Marsee coming, it’s not likely that they will go after anyone to play CF.
Duvall would be a good fit for them except that he is a RHB.
It seems to me that Acee is getting played.
If Taylor is still holding out for an 8 figure salary, the Padres will not be signing him. While everyone seems to feel that a LHB is needed more than another RHB, both Pham and Duvall still make sense for this team at a price point of $5M – $6M on a one year deal. Even if Merrill is the starter in CF, the Padres need at least one more experienced OF and both Duvall and Pham seem to fit their needs quite well. The waiting game has to end soon for both the team and the player. They should get something done this week if they do indeed intend to strengthen their OF / Lineup.
They aren’t paying anyone over $4M. $2M is the target.
Where u get that info ? League minimum seems out of their budget imo
Merrill will start in CF. There’s a good chance another rookie, Graham Pauley, will start at third while Manny DHs to start the season. With Jake at 1st, that’s three lefties in the line-up. Switch-hitting Profar would make four.
Would anyone the Padres sign be any better than Profar/Azocar? Probably not.
Agreed. Merrill and Pauley have played well enough in ST to get the starts at least in Korea. If it goes badly, there’s still some time to recalibrate. I get it… so far it’s “just Spring Training” and may be a challenging year but I’m not convinced the pitching will play well enough this year either. Hopefully they’re entertaining, play hard and the younglings learn and grow as the season progresses. Then again… this could be a total dumpster fire in the making in which case Preller is the likely scapegoat and fired before the end of the season… which may not be too bad either.
Right ! So if they are considering additions it seems like clevinger or lorenzen. Padres need both of them imo
Yeah, it would be quite q coup if Brito, Vasquez and Waldron start and give SP innings, but not likely. I really thought they’d bring in another #3-4 type SP by now.
Especially after they traded for clevinger before. You know they like him and he was solid 2nd half.
They Padres have not been looking for a back of the rotation starter. Shildt has been pretty clear that they believe they have that covered with Brito, Waldron, Vasquez, Avila, plus depth with Iriarte, Bergert, and others waiting in the minors. He has said they are looking for a “true upgrade” only. They probably would have made a trade for a #2 type by now if not for all the injuries to the Marlins staff and Getz asking price on Cease.
A 33 year old and already injury-prone Clevinger that has not been missing many bats since his last major injury and that is projected for a mid-4’s ERA is not an upgrade.
32 year old Lorenzen has a career 4.41 ERA as a starter and a 4.16 ERA the past 2 seasons with peripherals including FIP, singing strike% and SO rate that point to a slight regression. While he might eat innings, I am not sure he is much of an upgrade and he is a RHP as well.
Bro, I follow baseball everyday and never heard of any of them dudes you mentioned. Clevinger and lorenzen are clear up grades. So are other low cost FA and other guys signing minor league deals. Padres are paper thin
How cheaply could the Padres get LH hitting Brandon Belt to play some LF/DH/1B/PH? It makes a little sense, he could bat third in the lineup.
The Padres should trade for a cost controlled LF. The Red Sox, Brewers, and Tigers have depth in the OF.
I’m sure AJ Preller will be in on the trade market all year long. As he says, if a match up comes along, he’ll be trying to get something done. That likely applies to LF, CF, 1B, and all flavors of pitching.
On the other hand, I don’t believe, … uh… THIS YEAR, at least, that he’ll be trading guys like Merrill or Salas or Snelling or Lesko or Thorpe, etc..
It’s funny how almost no teams will trade top prospects, for example, a top ranked shortstop prospect like Merrill for a top ranked 1B, CF, etc.. Teams just don’t trade those guys, yet I see fans (of mostly other teams) all the time wondering why AJP won’t trade PADRES top prospects (i.e. even though he sometimes does). I’m all but certain that if an equal value proposal for a position of need (e.g. 1B) came up for Merrill, Preller would move him. However, it just doesn’t happen. The Padres are not in restocking mode, i.e. one team offers four lower level prospects “dice rolls” for Merrill, and Preller says, “well, of course, we’ll do it!”.
Anyhow, considering the needs, I wouldn’t be surprised if AJP did a trade deal at any time this season. The Pads (as far as we know) have unmet needs; there just needs to be the kind of deal that makes sense. Thus far, it hasn’t happened, because we all know Preller would be all over it if it was possible.
It’s all but a sure thing Merrill will be the starting center fielder. He moved from left to center early in spring camp because he felt more comfortable in center. He has done a fine job in center though I’m sure there will be some growing pains. Padres moved a shortstop to right field who had nearly zero experience in the outfield last year and he won the platinum glove. So I don’t see them being too concerned with moving another shortstop to center. Merrill also being a lefty hitter starts to solve a huge balance issue with the padres lineup.
Taylor at this point doesn’t make any sense with Merrill playing center and not likely to move to left. Plus they have Azocar who is basically Taylor.
Duvall and Pham both make some sense. They can play left/dh some once manny is back at 3rd.
Not too concerned with them batting from the right side. With Merrill, most likely Pauley who will play 3rd while manny dh’s, cronenworth and Profar. They have plenty of lefty hitters. Wade a lefty hitter may also make the team.
Padres can cast a wide net to get the best possible upgrade in left field.
By L bat need, I was thinking a lefty with more experience though I like Merrill and Pauley ( especially Pauley) bats. Would prefer Duvall over Pham, by a measure of 10. But if signing him exhausts remaining available $, then I’d prefer it instead go to SP help. I just can’t imagine all of King, Vasquez and Brito succeeding in rotation, though if they did it would make the Soto deal incredibly one-sided.
Well, since we all know the record on prospects (i.e. “suspects”), even though these young guys are showing well in Spring Training, and had the minor league track record to get them there, it gets to be about the numbers. Add one prospect as a regular to a MLB team, and if he doesn’t work out, it shouldn’t crash the team. Add two, and the risk increases. Add three, four, maybe a half dozen of those kinds of variable parts, and the risk of failure increases almost to a certainty.
Now, not all prospects are the same. Merrill rates a rare rookie major league CF starter, based on consistent, exceptional talent and accomplishment (much like Tatis evolution as a GG/platinum glove RF was remarkable, but not all that remarkable). The only question will be his bat, and that’ll never be adequately answered until he’s playing every day on a major league club.
I consider Azocar to be a solid MLB 4th OF, and not a rookie even if he’s been on the AAA/SD train. Profar? Maybe a little bit better than that (i.e. he’s older, has a longer track record, and won’t become much better over his career), maybe not. That makes TWO “4th OF” types on a club lacking a MLB LF, and with a rookie at CF. So, yeah, standing pat is a risk. But then, so is spending every last nickel to get an inconsistent (and unreliable) guy like Pham.
I think Preller will stand pat with what’s in camp, unless the price of a better addition drops to $1M or less. I mean, what’s the real WAR increase with any of the available FA, OF options out there, over the guys already in camp. 0.5 WAR?? 1 WAR? Having the cash available for opportunities is worth more than that to AJP.
Yeah, I agree with you Salt. Of the $20M or so that they have in CBT flexibility, I’m guessing they go into the season with at least half of that or more for in-season additions. Tomorrow we will learn a lot about the plans when the 31 man Korea roster is set..
King is not a question mark. He will succeed. Its only a question of whether he can go more than 150 innings.
Brito and Vasquez are question marks. I don’t think the Padres were counting on one of them going 180 innings. I think they are counting on some combination of them and Waldron going 180+ innings.
They still need another proven starter, but only one that is a TOR, not another back of the rotation guy. That is going to have to come in trade if they are looking to stay under the CBT threshold.
Yeah I realize King’s game is ready, he might end up being their best SP, and he’s the least guy to worry about in the group. But we’ll see if he can manage a full season for the first time in his career. He certainly seems confident that he can go full.
#4-6 in rotation is going to have to be a committee over the full season, assuming they run with Waldron, Brito, Vasquez there. I’d be surprised if we see Iriarte before July. And yeah, if they invest in another SP (via trade most likely) it would need to be a TOR. I was not-so-secretly hoping for a Burnes 1 year rental, or a trade for Luzardo.
I was hoping for Luzardo but with all the injuries to the Marlins staff there is no way they trade him right now. Maybe that is something that happens closer to the trade deadline.
If Merrill and Pauley struggle we could see other trades happening too.