With the Matt Chapman signing now official, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi met with reporters (including NBC Sports Bay Area’s Alex Pavlovic and the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser) on a Zoom call. In regards to the chance that more significant moves might still happen before Opening Day, Zaidi indicated that Chapman’s contract might mark the end of the Giants’ heavy lifting.
“I’ll say what I said last time we talked after we signed [Jorge] Soler — the offseason is really over as far as we’re concerned,” Zaidi said. “We’re more in in-season mode, which doesn’t mean you can’t make additions, but it’s a different dynamic because we’re really focused on the players that we have and how they’re all going to fit together.”
It was a little over two weeks ago that Zaidi also spoke with the media after Soler’s signing, when the PBO noted that “It’s a little bit more disruptive to add at this point. Anybody who’s a free agent, we’ve theoretically had three and a half months to figure out a deal and if it hasn’t happened yet, at some point organizationally, you just need to turn the page and focus on the players you have….At this point, the calendar makes any further additions unlikely.”
Of course, as Pavlovic observed, Chapman was then signed in the aftermath of those initial comments, so Zaidi’s statement today could and probably should be taken with some natural skepticism. Multiple reports surfaced yesterday that Blake Snell was still a target for San Francisco even in the aftermath of Chapman’s arrival, and Zaidi didn’t deny that talks had closed off on Snell or any other possible additions. “The easiest thing is to say we can’t rule it out,” Zaidi said. “We don’t have some planned sequence of moves here and don’t feel like anything is imminent there, but we’re going to continue to look for ways to improve the team.”
In the absence of any more newcomers, the Giants’ rotation continues to look like Logan Webb, converted reliever Jordan Hicks, and then a host of prospects with little to no Major League experience. The highly-touted Kyle Harrison (34 2/3 career big league innings) will be getting an extended look at a rotation job, Keaton Winn (42 1/3 career innings) projects as the fourth starter, and a whole host of pitchers could now get a shot at the fifth starter’s role since Tristan Beck will begin the season on the 60-day injured list.
Despite this lack of proven starting depth, Zaidi is excited to see what the in-house arms can do. “Our plan all along has been to give our young pitchers opportunities and to try to create a defense that would support them in their transition and that’s one of the reasons Matt was such a priority….We want to elevate our young pitchers. There’s uncertainty that comes from the fact that there’s a lack of familiarity. Young pitchers are definitionally not household names, but we think that the more they get a chance to prove themselves, you sort of have to take the leap with them at some point and this is something we’ve been planning for a couple of years, to get younger in our rotation and give these guys the opportunity to win jobs.”
Beyond just the prospects, Robbie Ray and Alex Cobb are expected to bolster the rotation when the two veterans return from the injured list. Ray’s recovery from Tommy John surgery will keep him out until at least midseason, and Cobb underwent hip surgery at the end of October and was given an estimated return timeline of roughly six months.
Cobb has already been working out in spring camp, and it seems as though the right-hander is on track to at least meet if not better that timeline. Zaidi said that Cobb is expected back “relatively soon in the year,” and Pavlovic noted that the Giants haven’t put Cobb on the 60-day injured list, which would rule him out until the end of May.
Rsox
Giants could be legit contenders if they sign Snell or Montgomery to help with innings. Mid-season returns of Cobb and Ray would keep the Giants from actually having to make mid-season additions to the rotation. They should be a better team to watch this season
Seamaholic
They won’t be assuming Ray and Cobb will be able to shoulder a full load, nor be as good as they were right away. Serious injuries in guys in their mid-30’s just don’t work that way.
seamaholic 2
They won’t be assuming Ray and Cobb will be able to shoulder a full load, nor be as good as they were right away. Serious injuries in guys in their mid-30’s just don’t work that way.
disadvantage
@jack
He said it twice in this comment thread alone (albeit one night be an imposter).
Non Roster Invitee
Hashtag: #broadbrush
LouWhitakerHOF
So basically we are not interested in Snell or Montgomery at their current price demands. But if prices do come down then we are interested.
Plugnplay
Craziness, I don’t think Snell signs till June is it, when the Q/O penalty drops. No team wants to go super long term, and the shorter 3 year deal like Chap, and Bellinger opt outs don’t make sense either, with the penalties u have to take.
You would hope and want Snell to pitch great, so then he’s gone in 1 year if he does just that. No thanks, not with the penalties.
Harrison Butker's Mount Rushmore Worthy Speech
It’s mind boggling Montgomery isn’t signed yet considering he doesn’t have a QO
Rsox
Boras coupled with the fact that Montgomery kept saying he wanted to stay with the Rangers, even after they expressed no interest in retaining him has definitely effected his market
Jean Matrac
The simple answer is that no team is comfortable with his asking price. Him on the staff of a number of teams would improve that staff. It isn’t that teams don’t like him, it’s they don’t like the cost.
Pickle_Britches
Probably because of what he’s asking coming off his best season of his career. He was a 3-5 mill a year pitcher before 23 and now he thinks he is worth 20+ million a year lol. 10 wins once in his career nah not worth it.Sup with Clevinger he seems like a better bet with a better track record.
Johnny Devil
The giants two top starters won a total of 8 games last season. I’m not thinking playoffs. I’m thinking help.
Ernie Riles
Webb won 11
Pickle_Britches
More than Montgomery ever won in a season to lol.
Johnny Devil
I’m impressed. The giants number 1 is a 11 game winner and the two behind him are 8 game winners not due back until maybe.
Non Roster Invitee
LOL wins #Felix
TigersLoveCinnamon
You should educate yourself before typing about a team you have no clue about. Webb literally finished 2nd in the Cy, yet you’re surprised lmao
Pickle_Britches
Huh?
This one belongs to the Reds
In other words, if they can sign someone else at a discount, they will.
metalhead
Just like every other team in the league.
Seamaholic
Yup. Unlike the Chapman market, there will be a dozen teams in on the pitchers if they’re bargains.
Deke
I’m already sick of this guy and what he’s done to SF Baseball.
disadvantage
@deke
What has he done to SF baseball? Be specific.
Deke
Under Zaidi they have played a style of baseball that can be best described as “ChatGPT Baseball”. They played the math. I swear I was waiting to see Kapler yank a player at an 0-2 count because another player hit better in that count. A different lineup every night with people moving positions all the time.
You can blame Kapler, but he hired Kapler.
He couldn’t sign any major free agents.
I tell ya, I wouldn’t want to play under that style of ball. Players for the most part like consistency. I know I did (albeit I didn’t play MLB). But the game is easier when you play the same position and hit in the same spot.
I used to watch every game, they have been the most boring I’ve ever seen them over the Zaidi years.
The team used to have personality. They all seem like robots now.
Pete'sView
Relying on Cobb and Ray when they come back (and even Jordan Hicks) is a roll of the dice. All three have questions when they come back after being away so long. And in Hick’s case, having been a short reliever with a history of injuries.
The smart view—despite the many terrific young arms the Giants have—would be to add another solid #1 or #2 to the rotation. Someone who can be counted on for quality innings. Otherwise, it’s too much pressure on Logan Webb and even Kyle Harrison.
Pickle_Britches
Plus Harrison is got control issues. Making it past the 5 inn every start is going to be his main goal.
luvochka
The only problem is Snell isn’t a solid option to provide stability, his career has been up and down and full of injury issues. He is a roll of the dice also.
agnes gooch
Pete—Snell or Montgomery could potentially be solid 1 or 2 in the rotation or they could get injured/have down years and end up being albatross contracts that hamstring the future. Signing any free agent is risky but especially pitchers. With the time clock and the velo thrown now, pitchers are breaking down faster than ever. There’s no magic bullet. The Giants have a slew of young arms on the way, yes it won’t be smooth sailing and there will be a learning curve, but let them arrive and grow into their own. Then they will be ours, homegrown and cheap.
Zaidi signed a lot of players this winter, be happy. It seems impossible to please this fanbase, I’m happy, but it’s unbelievable to me that people are STILL complaining. There’s a lot of fans from other teams that would love to get the players we did this winter, and have kids on the brink too. Let the team grow together, everything good in life takes time
Cheezpuff 2
Cubs and Giants should get together on a trade. Giants could use a temporary veteran starter like Drew Smyly until Ray and Cobb are back and then can be used as a swing man. Cubs could use J.D. Davis as a 1 year stop gap at 3rd so they can wait and see if either Morel or Shaw can lock the position down. Value isn’t even, but the Cubs could probably throw in money or get some other players involved.
Jean Matrac
At the beginning of the offseason Zaidi said they were interested in TOR arms, but not in adding to the back of the rotation. What the Giants have in-house with guys like Whisenhunt, Black, and Roupp, are as good an option as Smyly, if not better.
agnes gooch
Exactly Jean, thank you
dennymagnet
Logic in providing strong defence, as long as our bullpen can close the deal because these young arms will not be going much more than 6 innings.
I can see a Lorenzen or Clevenger type coming shortly, not Snell or Monty, tho I’d be happy to have Monty.
Giants win divisions when they are winning games 3-2, 4-1, 5-4 etc low scoring and solid Def.
Jean Matrac
Giants aren’t interested in back of the rotation guys. They’d rather see what they have in their young prospects than give innings to guys like Lorenzen, Clevenger, or Smyly.
claude raymond
Jean, we’ve been saying the same thing over and over but posters keep saying get lorentzen, etc etc. It should be obvious, go with the blacks, tengs,etc instead of the BOR guys for sale.
Seamaholic
Sounds like a team that is shooting more for 2025 than 2024, which I actually think is accurate.
Pickle_Britches
Clevinger would be the Giants 2nd best SP to start the season lol. Harrison has no experience and is too wild, Hicks is a project that they hope works out but not likely.
Jean Matrac
Harrison is the highest ranked LHP prospect in baseball. In his first season, 34.2 IP, he had a 102 ERA+, and limited his walks to 2.9 per 9. In his last 2 GS, 10.1 IP against the Dodgers, he allowed only 2 runs on 3 hits. Harrison will be fine. The only thing that concerns me about him is the Giants will limit his innings. But when Cobb and Ray return, that shouldn’t be a problem.
Pickle_Britches
Small sample size though. Maybe he does good and maybe he can pull off some quality starts but that takes going more than 5 inn.
Jean Matrac
Not really. The average amount of IPs for SPs now is only 5,1. A lot people talk about the ability to go deep, which is admittedly a strength, but that ability is limited to a small minority of SPs these days.
The game is managed differently than it was a decade ago. Managers, and team philosophy, want to never see a pitcher see a guy face batters a third time, at most. Every pitchers’ number decline precipitously as the game goes on. If Harrison can average 5 IP the Giants will be happy with that.
You’re right about sample size, but a lot of pitchers struggle in their debuts. It’s different facing ML hitters after having success again the MiLs. Pitching is a learned skill, and Harrison handled his debut fairly well.. His success isn’t guaranteed, but I’m optimistic.
Jabronie23
They really need Snell or Montgomery to cement themselves as legitimate contenders and make this a truly great offseason
giantsphan12
Just pick up Snell on a deal with opt-outs, like the Chapman deal (same agent mind you) and call it a day. That buys them time to not rush Cobb and Ray, and give a little wiggle room to the younger guys and Hicks. It sorta seems like a no-brainer to me. The question to me is ….how do we (Giants’ brass) do our best to finish 2nd in the NLWest and hope for a WC slot….we need more pitching to make that happen (or at least have a hope)
johnepdx
Except you lose two top draft picks, lose international money, and go over the luxury tax for one year.
Jean Matrac
Signing Snell would mean losing their 3rd highest pick, no big deal. And the Giants can easily afford to go over the threshold for a few million dollars, no big deal there either. They’ll be under next season when other salaries come off the payroll. The only reason they haven’t signed Snell is they aren’t comfortable with the years Snell is asking for.
Candlestoked
Giants are going to trade for roster space and may diminish loss of draft pick that way. Maybe trade Davis for X plus a player picked high in 22 or 23 draft.
Seamaholic
A deal with opt outs is not the same as a one year deal. If he stinks or gets hurt, he stays and gums up your payroll for years.
Jean Matrac
That’s true, but teams greatly increase their chances of landing a guy when they include opt-outs.
Pickle_Britches
Well then it’s not looking good with the SP they have set to start the season. Can’t bank on Hicks and Harrison. Bullpen is going to get a lot of work in this season im thinking.
unpaidobserver
I even saw him steal…a fry off my plate.
SF6sparky
I doubt it’ll translate to much on the field, but it looks like he’s somehow in the best shape of his career
Redwolves3
Zaidi is making a tremendous mistake if he doesn’t sign/trade for Snell Montgomery Bieder Cease Luzardo Valdez. If Zaidi stands pat he can expect heat heat & more heat from fans
foppert2
Ha ha. You keep saying this like it is a concern for him. Dude. He doesn’t care. It’s his job to take the heat from fans. If his not getting heat, he is not doing his job.
xtraflamy
Exactly. There seem to be a lot of commenters in these Giants articles who probably are on a certain agents payroll.
Jean Matrac
There does seem to be a lot of deluded fans that think they actually exert pressure on ownership in regards to Zaidi’s job security. It’s truly laughable.
Sugster21
Snell already said he’s open to a short term deal. I think the Giants are in a great spot to add Snell and pay the luxury tax one year, and not lose another draft pick because they already lost their second pick for the Chapman deal. They’ll have other players coming off the books including the money they sent for the Haniger and Disco trades. This would be a good year to try for the playoffs with Shohei unable to pitch and the Dodgers pitching staff with question marks.
Big whiffa
I think it’s where team and player are most interested in making a deal. If snell wanted to play in NY, he’d be a Yankee already. And if Sea was interested; he’d be a mariner. SF is close and a good pitchers park. Good franchise and snell would make it an elite offseason.
Shame SD is that broke. They really need him
TigersLoveCinnamon
They’d still lose another pick, it would just be their third highest pick, and another 500k in international money. Not a fan of snell, but on a short deal with an opt out it could work. He just hasn’t been reliable, two great seasons with a bunch of injury plagued seasons.
Sugster21
Thanks for the correction. And I agree, Snell is inconsistent but a short term deal with opt outs lowers that risk.
worthington
They would lose another pick…a 3d round and another 500k in int’l money.
frugalfarhan
Zaidi so far has done well at the hot stove poker table but if he doesn’t sign another starting pitcher who’s last name rhymes with hell, that is where he will wish he was about 6 weeks into the season. Stop being a cheap ass FZ and just sign the guy and let’s get it on!
TigersLoveCinnamon
It’s not his choice how much money they spend, that’s on ownership. They’ve also spent the most money this off-season besides the dodgers
claude raymond
He’s frugal, zaidi isnt
Candlestoked
Frugal Zaidi is cashing out with a better haul than anybody whose name doesn’t rhyme with codgers!
frugalfarhan
If he doesn’t get some rotation help it will all be for not. If he does and especially if he gets Snell, you can actually call this a good offseason. Not until then
TigersLoveCinnamon
Naught is the word you’re looking for
giacgara
Are you accusing ff of being not naughty? I agree, as some of his comments ties me up in knots.
TigersLoveCinnamon
You’re weird
Candlestoked
Frugal, you’re naught right on this one.
filihok
FF
“Stop being a cheap ass FZ ”
Most GM’s would be happy to spend hundreds of millions of dollars if their billionaire owners would let them
Blame the owners
frugalfarhan
You again! Stop being a nerd
filihok
FF
“You again! Stop being a nerd”
If your definition of a nerd is knowing basic facts about the topic being discussed, then that’s not something I stop doing
Congrats to you, I guess, for being able to do so
frugalfarhan
I have no idea what your point is or why you post. Like a fly that someone who forgot to close the back door let in. You buzz around trying to be relevant yet nobody wants you here or cares what you have to say. Go find a pile of fresh dog poop to sniff
filihok
ff
Muted (insults)
Too bad. This poster is a good source of misinfo to dispel
splinkysf
Trade for Cease. Don’t give up the next draft pick.
Jean Matrac
Based on what the ChiSox have asked from other teams, they would want Harrison, plus other pieces, The cost is too steep.
claude raymond
Huh? Cease requires large prospect outlay. Prospects are former picks. So you’re saying get rid of many picks to avoid losing 1 pick? Again, huh?
SF6sparky
Every player is a former pick, so what are you talking about? Yeah, prospects are more recent, but you still know more about the prospect. You’re saying Harrison is the same as a pick you haven’t made yet….huh?
claude raymond
prospects are former picks. He wants to trade prospects to avoid losing the one pick that signing Snell causes. Are you that clueless about my point? trade prospects to save a future single prospect? huh? jeez dude
splinkysf
Honey, I think we can all agree that while the word ‘prospect’ is the same as the word ‘prospect,’ all prospects are not created equally.
Some are second round and some are twenty second round.
Also, teams evaluate the value of an in house prospect based on the ceiling they’ve identified for the player as well as evaluating the player’s ultimate value to the team based on existing depth vs depth being developed in the minors and sometimes having to decide which is the bigger upside.
Prospect ain’t a prospect ain’t a prospect, son. There’s tons of numbers (MATH!) to leverage invoice an evaluation. Maybe sometime I’ll buy you a garlic fry.
Buzzz Killington
Snell on a Bellinger/Chapman type deal with a bit higher AVV than Bellinger wouldn’t be bad. Would be another loss for Boras though. I don’t see how a least one of the Boras for don’t drop him after this off-season.
Joe Robbins
Giants fans, they will at the very least sign Lorenzen. They have to and they know it. Then they could perhaps trade Davis for another veteran arm. Cheese puff’s Idea about Smyly and someone else for Davis makes a lot of sense. Especially if the Cubs included some sort of young starting pitcher prospect. I think the Cubs would be happy to do that. We all know that the Giants are not done. They really need two more guys. Two guys would allow them to ease their young great pitching prospects into the mix the right way.
geotheo
Should be a disclaimer whenever a GM speaks is baseball has strict anti-tampering rules Even though Snell is a free agent not on a team teams are limited at what they can say. Best they can do is say they have reached out to a particular player. Can’t discuss terms ( years/money) or even officially rule out signing anyone. When Ohtani was a free agent the Oakland ( Las Vegas/Salt Lake City?) A’s couldn’t say directly they weren’t interested. Of course everyone knew they weren’t going to offer him a contract but they are not allowed to say that publicly. Notice whenever Snell is linked to a team its “sources “. So don’t expect Zaidi to be more specific
Jean Matrac
Plus, Zaidi has no incentive to say he wants to sign Snell. Saying the team is fine as it, is going into the season, is a better negotiating position than telling a guy he’s the one they want.
Dingrrrs
Why do so many baseball people pepper their language with “kind of” and “sort of” constantly? You guys are making millions of dollars, why not work on better communication skills.
filihok
D
“Why do so many baseball people pepper their language with “kind of” and “sort of” constantly? You guys are making millions of dollars, why not work on better communication skills.”
Because there is a lot of uncertainty in the real world
Ever listened to a scientist or read a scientific paper? Chalk full of qualifiers.
What’s that quote? Something like “the problem with the world is that smart people are full of doubt and idiots are full of certainty”.
Dingrrrs
Odd take. But no, I haven’t found this to be true in interviews with scientists, probably because they’re trained to write papers and posit theses, with amateurish self-doubting qualifiers an absolute no-no. I’ve really never seen it anywhere so much as with baseball, management and players alike. Pretty to give them credit and think it’s purposeful, representing some kind of intelligence with an accurate view of the uncertainty of the universe. Really just a culture rife with duplicity and poor communication.
filihok
Ding
Maybe you’ve interviewed poor scientists
What I’ve seen is always some version of “our findings suggest the possibility of X, but more study is necessary”
The world isn’t as black and white as the less knowledgeable want it to be
Dingrrrs
“Our findings suggest the possibility…” is absolutely an intelligent and accurate way to communicate. “We kind of wanted to win the World Series but there were sort of too many good players on other teams” etc etc is a dumb way of speaking, yet very common in baseball. Seems an odd thing to defend but you do you.
filihok
Ding
““We kind of wanted to win the World Series but there were sort of too many good players on other teams””
That is dumb
Who said it?
Anyone but you?
Dingrrrs
Also Zaidi is a blatant liar, so no reason to start believing anything he says now.
splinkysf
I think he keeps his cards close so that he doesn’t disadvantage the org during player contract negotiations.
What else? Did he make a PWOMISE to JD Davis years ago to give him a ringy dingy before the front office does their job, which apparently requires the blessing of existing player(s). If he gave that guarantee to JD Davis, it wasn’t very smart of Farhan Zaidi. *tisk tisk.*
NewTemplar
I’m still expecting a Giants deal with Snell that’s more structured like Chapman’s, plus signing Lorenzen to a 1-2 year deal. Zaidi is frustrating to follow but is a poker player and hates to provide any show until the surprise. The Giants cannot count on Cobb and Ray coming back to regular rotation levels until late season. It’s also sadly common to see veteran pitchers rejoin from injured status to pull a muscle or tear, some other kind of injury that takes them out for another IL visit. The Giants need MORE pitchers, not more stories from management.
Johnny Devil
Don’t hold your breath. Snell ends up in Philly or the rotten apple.
SFBay314
Farhan ultimate liar, sign snell. Trade Davis/Conforto/Bart/prospect for cease or beiber. Then have cy-young winner with manager from last year, runner up from last year, another runner up and a few rookies.
gravel
Easy peasy if the other team didn’t have the right to refuse trade proposals.
Jean Matrac
Giants: We’ll give you J.D. Davis, Michael Conforto, Joey Bart, and some non-specified prospect for Dylan Cease.
ChiSox: Is that non-specified prospect Kyle Harrison?
Giants: No.
ChiSox: (Laughing, hangs up phone.)
SFBay314
Cease has 1 year of control left after this year. Newsflash – Reinsdorf is a cheapo
oldgfan
I’d go Luciano, Ramos, Roupp for Cease.
Then flip Davis, Bart & Conforto to Brewers for Adames. No more roster issues. Done
dubtastic
I actually like this idea
agnes gooch
Takes two to tango oldgfan, I’m sure Zaidi has offered many trade scenarios to other presidents/GMs but if they don’t like the offer, it doesn’t happen.
oldgfan
It only takes one to dream though.
Just trying to start some trade rumors on the trade rumor site.
Cuz you know, I can’t stand politics.
agnes gooch
Right on oldgfan! I know what you mean! I think we still see a trade or two even! Go Giants!!!
claude raymond
He’s a poker player. Poker players lie. It helps them win $. You whiners that say he lies stay away from poker tables. He’s a negotiator. Boras is a negotiator. It’s part of his job so stop whining about it.
Joe Robbins
SF Bay, no one wants Conforto or Bart sir.
SFBay314
Will reply here when they get moved this month
Joe Robbins
Yeah ok. Conforto’s contract is ridiculous. He isn’t worth half of what the giants are paying him. Bart just sucks. Every team and their fans have a couple of guys that you just wish that you could get rid of, but you just can’t. My team is in the same boat as well. It’s not personal. They are just mistakes and underachievers. We kid ourselves into believing that we can trade them. I know in the past That I have. It’s just reality.
claude raymond
yep, and guaranteed your reply will have a “but” in it to cover your butt
tedtheodorelogan
Hope he has the duct tape and super glue handy, and that the dudes in the bullpen are all prepared to throw 80-100 innings.
claude raymond
Wasn’t it you that said the same thing 2 acquisitions ago or are you just being facetious
Bobby smac9
If a GM can get a player at a bargain, then “we’re done” is we’re not.
dodgersvictoryagain
Three team race for last place Col and SD plus these losers
SF6sparky
Of course a dodger would give himself a thumbs up. The real loser is a team that buys the best player at every position and still can’t win a real World Series. 1988 oof, so sad lol nobody counts 2020….including yourself
Candlestoked
Haha. Still, the Dodgers are easy to cheer on to inevitable defeat!
SF6sparky
Haha very true. All the money in the world and can’t get it done. They wouldn’t be competitive if there was a true salary cap.
filihok
The idea/narrative that Snell is inconsistent is way overblown
He’s produced between 1.8 and 4.7 fWAR in every non-COVID season
FIP-between 72 and 102
XFIP- between 69 and 104
He’s, for the most part an above average pitcher with some variance around that mean. In his worst years he’s average. In his best years he’s in contention for CY awards
His ERA- has been between 46 and 106. That’s s bigger gap than FIP and xFIP, but that’s because ERA us inconsistent, not Snell
SFG.1
I agree, I do think he’s been consistent, but maybe not the way you suggest.
2016 WAR 0.8
2017 WAR 1.3
2018 WAR 7.1 CYA
2019 WAR 1.4
2020 WAR 1.0
2021 WAR 1.4
2022 WAR 2.1
2023 WAR 6.0 CYA
2017 & 2023 IP 180.2 & 180.0 = 360.2
2019, 2020, 2021 & 2023 Combined 413.4 innings pitched. Never surpassing 128.2 in any of those years.
We can do this with all his stats and it’s going to be the same pattern, so what do you think we should expect in 2024?
filihok
SFG
“2019, 2020, 2021 & 2023 Combined 413.4 innings pitched. Never surpassing 128.2 in any of those years.”
A bit…misleading…due to the shortened season. And that you’re pretending that his minor league innings didnt’ exist
Let’s look at it this way
2016 152 innings
2017 173 innings
2018 181 innings
2019 107 innings
2021 129 innings
2022 140 innings
2023 180 innings
That makes it look a bit more consistent, no?
What do I expect for 2024? Depends on when he signs. But, 150ish innings, 3 – 3.5 WAR
SFG.1
Aside from the short season, which should really be ignored anyway, there’s a big difference between the CYA years and the rest.
A 3-3.5 WAR and 150 pitches would be #2 best on the Giants last year and a lot of other teams if not the #1 starter. We’d all take that. But I don’t know based on his history that it’s going to happen.
filihok
SFG
“Aside from the short season, which should really be ignored anyway, there’s a big difference between the CYA years and the rest.”
This is the basis of our disagreement
FIP-, xFIP-, BB%, K%, BABIP
CY seasons 76, 79, 11.2,, 31.5, .249
Non-CY 83, 80, 10.3, 31.9, .309
He was a bit better in his CY seasons in terms of FIP and xFIP. But not at all significantly. His K and BB numbers were BETTER in his non-CY seasons.
The only significant differences are BABIP (which is largely out of the pitchers’ control). And total innings.
As I was just posting in response to someone else. There just aren’t that many pitchers who consistently pitch the same number of innings with the same level of performance year after year.
Pitchers are inconsistent. Snell isn’t inconsistent for a pitcher.
WAR measures quality and quantity of performance
Snell has ranged between 1.8 and 4.7 fWAR in his career (excluding the 2020 season).
People compare him to Montgomery – with Montgomery being touted as the more consistent option
Montgomery has ranged between 0.1 and 4.1 fWAR.
Snell has been more consistent. Montogmery is the one who has missed more time with injury. Ignoring the one-year head start Snell got on Montgomery. Since 2017 Snell has faced about 3700 major league hitters. Montgomery just 3100. Why is Montgomery considered the more durable pitcher? Montgomery is the one who has missed a ton of time with injury – not Snell
The last 3 years? Is there any reasons that should be an iron-clad cut off point? Should we totally ignore what happened before that?
I say no
Should we weight more recent performance more than older performance? Of course.
These are Snell’s last 3 seasons
129 innings, 2.1 WAR
128 innings, 3.6 WAR
180 innings 4.1 WAR
“A 3-3.5 WAR and 150 pitches ”
Does 3-3.5 WAR seem out of line given Snell’s more recent history (if recent history is what we’ve decided that we’re going to focus on)?
SFG.1
My god, how much time do you have on your hands?
I think you have to consider the history.
How about if I change it up for you a minute? Is he the one piece that gets the team into the playoffs and gives them a legitimate shot at getting to the WS?
I don’t, so why bring him for a year or two when the team can work on developing younger players for the long term? I don’t want another season of them hanging in that and fading at the end.
A 6.0 WAR from another pitcher would have gotten them into the playoffs last year. Arizona won 84 games and almost won the whole thing. But I don’t believe he will come close to last year’s numbers and I don’t know that he will be more than a 1ish WAR.
And I have even less expectations out of Montgomery.
filihok
SFG
“Is he the one piece that gets the team into the playoffs and gives them a legitimate shot at getting to the WS?”
No player in baseball is that. I present Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani as Angels as exhibit A
“I don’t know that he will be more than a 1ish WAR.”
I don’t know that either, I don’t know that Cobb or Cole or good pitchers whose names don’t start with “C” and have 4 letters will either.
But there’s certainly no reason to think that Snell is at all likely to only 0ut up a 1 WAR season. He’s never not put up twice that.
Pickle_Britches
His best years he won the CY young. 2/8 seasons really good other 6 avg. Never pitched above 180 inn and 32 starts 1x in a season. Avgs 5.1 inn a start and take out the COVID year and his rookie year he avgs 142 inn a season. Maybe that’s one reason teams are worried about signing him to what he is asking.
Avg 1.7-4.8 war a season seems pretty inconsistent to me
filihok
PB
7 out of 8 seasons his ERA was better than league average.
7 out of 8 seasons his FIP was better than league average
6 out of 8 seasons his FIP- was better than league average – including 6 consecutive seasons.
How are you concluding that his non-CY seasons are average?
Was it you that I asked before who didn;t answer?
Pickle_Britches
Asked what?
filihok
PB
How you came to the conclusion that his non-CY seasons were average? You know, the question right before the question that you responded to.
Somone commented something very similar to this crap a few days ago
“His best years he won the CY young. 2/8 seasons really good other 6 avg. “
Pickle_Britches
Wasn’t me but I’m sure a lot of people with common sense knows that. So you may see more of those comments.
filihok
PB
“Avg 1.7-4.8 war a season seems pretty inconsistent to me”
Have you compared him to other pitchers?
Here’s one who’s numbers I haven’t looked at yet
0.3 to 7..1
That’s Adam Wainwright. Definitely the definition of a pitcher who was known to be inconsistent.
Go ahead and do the same exercise. Think of a pitcher that you think of as consistent. Then look at the range of their performance.
See if Snell looks more inconsistent than they do.
Pickle_Britches
Yea after Wainwright hit 32 years old he was pretty inconsistent I agree. Wonder how Snell pans the older he gets.
filihok
PB are you going to accept the challenge, or no?
Think of a pitcher you think is consistent, and see how Snell compares to them
But, ok, more apples to apples
Let’s do Wainwright’s first 6 years
-0.1 to 5.3 WAR
Snell still seems more consistent, no?
Ok, that’s not really fair because his first year was only 2 games and his second year he pitched in relief
How about his next 6 years?
0 WAR to 6.2 WAR
Huh. Snell still seems a lot more consistent, no?
Again, that was always the knock on Wainwright, that he was inconsistent and missed time due to injury, right? Or nah?
So, can we agree that Snell’s first 6 years have been more consistent than Wainwright’s? yes or no?
I’m not scared, let’s pick another
Without looking
Gerrit Cole
First 6 seasons
2.4 to 5.9 WAR
About the same as Snell? Certainly not obviously better
Do you have an excuse for him?
Maybe…I dunno…Max Scherzer
2.3 to 5.9 WAR (after subtracting his first season)
Is that obviously more consistent than Snell? I don’t think so.
How about…Verlander?
2.8 to 6.5
Is that OBVIOUSLY more consistent than Snell? It’s better? But more consistent? I don’t see it. Not significantly for sure.
Let’s try again…Charie Morton
-0.2 to 2
How about Carlos Carrasco?
-0.4 to 3.2
Chris Sale
4.7 to 7.6 (if you ignore 2 seasons as a reliever). So, there’, kinda, one
Kevin Gausman
1.6 to 3.1. A bit more consistent, I guess. I’d rather have Snell’s first 6 for sure, though. But, Gaus was more consistent.
How about Jose Quintana? Wasn’t he known for being the model on consistency? Let’s check him out
1.6 to 4.9. Almost exactly the same range as Snell. But, he only had one down season – and it was his rookie year. What if we bounce that season and go to his next 6
1.0 to 4.9. Oh.
Stroman – a good consistent pitcher, no?
0.4 to 3.8. Oh, nope. But he was injured, let’s pretend that didn’t happen. 1.4 to 3.8. Pretty similar to Snell
Maybe you think I’m cheating.
Get a list of pitchers. Pick some out and see who’s more consistent than Snell.
I dare you
Pickle_Britches
Snell either is a 1.6 war pitcher or a 6.5 war pitcher. All those other pitchers are on a team Snell after winning the CY young is watching ST games at home. Dudes inconsistent let’s face it. I’m not going to compare him to other pitchers lol. Especially pitchers who are making less than 30 mill a year like Snell is asking for. He’s not on the same level as Verlander/sherzer or Cole who are future HOFers. Snell will never fit in that category. He has 2 cy Young’s yea so does lincecum lol.
filihok
PB
“Dudes inconsistent let’s face it. I’m not going to compare him to other pitchers lol..”
This says everything that I need to know about you. You come to a conclusion without looking at information.,
Muted (idiot)
Pickle_Britches
I don’t need to compare other pitchers to Snell to know if he’s inconsistent or not lol. All I have to do is look at his stats.
Non Roster Invitee
Those 2 seasons are sweet! Sign him butt. Nice drama fo SF!
dano62
He’s waiting for Boras to bring the prices close to reality or some stringer off the waiver wire. Bet on the waiver wire…
claude raymond
correct Dano because Zaidi has been doing nothing but grabbing from the waiver wire. pay attention
claude raymond
The Zaidi indifference may have been arguable before but….
1. trade for a Cy young winner, who’s worth $24 mil WITHOUT adding to payroll
2. signing a likely star centerfielder (hits in every spring game so far)
3. signing a potential solid SP, who’s developing that potential as we speak, who at worst is a stud 102mph reliever for 4/$44. excellent value.
4. signing a lefty bashing catcher/PH/DH for 2 years
5. signing one of the best power hitters in all of mlb
6. signing one of the best 3rd basemen in MLB
7. signing another 2 time Cy young pitcher (expect it by wednesday)
yep, fire frugal Farhan.The egghead sucks!
agnes gooch
Don’t forget Claude, that he also jettisoned all the poor performers/mistakes from last year.
You know that I’ve liked Zaidi since he was hired, but I still cannot believe that the fans and media are still clamoring to can him after all he has done. Some people just like to be miserable and complain I guess. Baseball is supposed to be fun and relaxing and an escape from all of the bs in life, and so I choose joy, and I’m thankful to Zaidi every day
foppert2
Respect.
oldgfan
That’s a lot of positive change to the team despite missing out on the top two targets. More bodies for less dollars,and less committed years too. Personally I think they will be better off this way in the long run.
SFG.1
It is a better team than it was last year. Before spring training ZiPS had them projected to win 84 games, Adding Soler and Champman can get them another 4 to 6 WAR if they perform like 2023.