Veteran slugger Brandon Belt’s free agency has surprisingly dragged into the regular season, with the soon to be 36-year-old reportedly “baffled” by the lack of offers he’s received to this point. The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly provided additional details on Belt’s free agency recently, noting that the Mets were the only club to offer Belt a guaranteed contract this winter, though he added that the deal was “almost entirely” incentives-based.
Belt is coming off an excellent season with the Blue Jays that saw him slash .254/.369/.490 with 404 trips to the plate. That included a fantastic 146 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, the eleventh-best figure among all qualified hitters last year which trailed only Shohei Ohtani among this winter’s free agents. The performance was more or less par for the course for Belt, who’s hit .258/.369/.503 since the start of the 2020 season and is a career .261/.357/.460 hitter for his career. That type of production certainly would’ve made sense for the Mets, though the club ultimately landed slugger J.D. Martinez on a one-year deal to plug the hole in the lineup at DH.
With that said, it’s somewhat surprising that the Mets were the only club to offer Belt a big league deal this winter. The only player on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 free agents list still unsigned, Belt was predicted for a one-year, $15MM deal this winter. That would’ve been a small bump over the one-year, $9.3MM deal he landed with Toronto prior to 2023 on the heels of a below-average showing at the plate during his final season with the Giants. Belt recently indicated that he still hopes to play in 2024, but also noted that he doesn’t want to settle for a minor league contract after his strong season last year.
More from the New York teams…
- Sticking with the Mets, Martinez was expected to make his debut with the club during this week’s series against the Braves, but that plan appears to have been scuttled. As relayed by MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo, manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters that Martinez is dealing with “general body soreness” and is not yet ready for his big league debut. Now, DiComo reports that the plan is for Martinez to take the next two days off and return to minor league action on Tuesday, with Friday as the earliest Martinez could make his big league Mets debut. The 36-year-old slugger slashed an impressive .271/.321/.572 with 33 home runs in 113 games with the Dodgers last year and figures to provide a major boost to the big league lineup, which ranks 28th in the majors with a 64 wRC+ so far in the young 2024 campaign.
- Looking toward the Bronx, Yankees fans received positive news regarding ace right-hander Gerrit Cole this morning, as manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including Greg Joyce of the New York Post) that Cole is nearing the beginnings of a throwing program. Cole started the season on the injured list while rehabbing nerve inflammation on his elbow, and now is expected to begin playing catch as soon as tomorrow. Cole, 33, is the reigning AL Cy Young award winner and a six-time All Star who pitched to a sterling 2.63 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate in 209 innings of work. If the right-hander can make a relatively speedy return from his rehab, it would surely provide a major boost to the Yankees as they look to return to the postseason.
There is no market for 1B/DH types at all. Hasn’t been in years. Belt is the latest example.
I’m sure he could have snagged $3m offer or maybe a $5m offer, but that’s at a level where a team could comfortably just play him once in a while and let their young stud 1B get most of the reps. And everyone’s got one of those; that’s the problem.
With respect to the expected $15m one year deal for Belt, only in baseball is more than a 50% raise considered “a small bump”.
Kind of reminds me of Adam Lind. In his last big league season, he hit .303/.362/.513 with 14 home runs and 120 wRC+ in 301 plate appearances in a bench/platoon role for the Nationals. He couldn’t secure a guarenteed contract the next year and 2017 ended up being the last year of his career.
Well said
Don’t get me wrong I like Belt as a player and he did have a good year but is it really a surprise that a 36 year old 1B/DH didn’t receive a ton of interest. I get that he’s salty over it but I think he needs to look at what the market is bearing and rethink his stance. He’s not gonna play unless he takes a cut in pay. I know he probably financially secure but some money is better than no money.
It’s not his age that kept teams away. J.D. is just as old. Justin Turner is 39. Belt’s problem is staying on the field. He’s averaged only 93 games over the last 3 seasons. He’s not going to play 150 games since he does get platooned, but as a LHH, with most pitchers being righties, he’s probably unavailable for around 20, or so, games a season. Teams want more dependability.
A few things:
1) fire hitting coach (Eric Chavez) and assistant hitting coach (Jeremy Barnes). After a good initial year with minimal impact on players, Mets hit. Two subsequent seasons of deteriorating offense.
2) send down Yohan Ramirez forever
3) consider eating Marte salary and releasing him
I don’t believe in Marte and would have no issues with releasing him at some point, but its just too soon. (FYI: Marte is currently outhitting Bader and Stewart) Before releasing Marte, you have to have someone to replace him. And they don’t – no one in AAA that is ready for the majors yet. Two months from now, that may change depending on how Drew Gilbert progress. (Gilbert, btw, is currently injured).
Face reality: this team is not built or expected to win anything. Its built with a bunch of has-been lottery tickets – and I mean scratch-offs, not the good kind. The hope is that one or two of them catches a flash of success and can be traded at the deadline for more prospect depth.
There just aren’t any moves to be made that will make this team a legitimate contender. So let’s just let the process play out for a couple of months, see which players step up, which fail, and how the current crop of prospects develops before jumping into any new plan.
I think a 5 million payday would have been about right.
If the Astros had any money left, they could throw $5M at him, instant upgrade over Abreu and Singleton
Bingo. I thought he lived in that general area (?) so playing for the Astros when their 1B situation is such a mess seems like a good fit. Then again if he’s expecting something north of $10M… good luck on that Brandon. Platoon player at this point but still useful if he was willing to take a kinda sorta “hometown” discount to play with a team that (while starting off poorly) is still a good shot to make the playoffs. Other problem is the amount the Stros are paying Abreu ((shudder)) for his level of play at this stage of his career.
Cardinals should release Carpenter and sign Belt
If the right-hander can make a relatively speedy return from his rehab, it would surely provide a major boost to the Yankees as they look to return to the postseason.
Because making a speedy return from rehab is SO SMART. Boonedoggle will end Cole’s career.
Belt is coming off an excellent season with the Blue Jays that saw him slash .254/.369/.490 with 404 trips to the plate.
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Great analysis!
However, while using the numbers on the back a baseball card is always, sometimes, occasionally useful, stuff like BABIP and K% are also useful.
Out of 293 hitters with 300 PAs, Belt was #8 in K%. He also ranked 10th highest in BABIP. Substantial regression is more likely than not.
I think he can still play some, but he is a pure platoon player at this point.
His 15% BB rate is well above average and Belt does have a career .323 BABIP.
He had a better season at his age than Jose Bautista lol. He should platoon with Abreu from the Astros. Belt vs RHP Abreu vs LHP.
Re Belt: How on earth is $9.3m->$15m a “small bump”? That’s a 61.3% increase. Getting 1% — if anything at all — is ‘small’.
Yeah $5.7M additional on top of $9.3M is *not* a small bump.
I think Belt is still worth more than $5M but certainly not $15M.
If free agency was fair and there was a place for Belt on a team as it stands, I think 1 year/$10.7M would have been more than fair and if he had taken less money to play more or be on a more competitive club, I still think 1 year/$6.7M would have been extremely fair.
Basically 2 years/$16M-$20M from last year through this year would have been a very fair value for what Belt is currently producing/capable of.
61%. And 5.7 million (!) dollars.
I’m going to my employer now to ask for a “small bump” in salary. Wish me luck…
$15M isn’t going to happen for a DH/1b. JD Martínez couldn’t get that much. Any team could have had Votto, Cron, Ford or any number of 1b/DH types for a max of $5M.
None of those guys were getting $5 million. Belt is substantially better than all of them at this point. But yeah, $15 million is way more than he should have expected.
Belt is baffled because he can’t accept no one wants to pay him $12M for his one demonsional ability as a DH only player. Suggest he checks his delusional ego and accept whatever any team is willing to pay him if he wants to continue to play. I’m “baffled” as well!
JD really got less than $9m, considering deferrals.
Is Belt really much better than that, if at all?
While I agree he is not worth $12M, he really is not a one-dimensional DH-only type. Over the last 2 seasons he’s played almost 750 innings at 1B. While his fielding has eroded from being exceptionally good with the glove, he is still serviceable at first. He would provide some positional flexibility for a team.
He is baffled that he got nothing close to a concrete offer of any type. There was nothing for him to accept. Minor league deal excluded. He is also one of the most non egostical guys in the game.
You are baffled because you don’t know the situation you are commenting on.
Did you miss the part about the Mets’ offer?
No disrespect to Belt, he is a good MLB player (better than anyone commenting)….but at his cost, most teams have a guy at the major (or minor) league level that can replace him for a LOWER cost.
>That type of production
Is an illusion. Belt was absolute garbage with RISP. He had only three more RBI than bench piece Cavan Biggio.
@terrymesmer
You really have to stop promoting the illusion that RISP and RBI’s are useful stats. The neighbours are being to talk.
Unless they changed the game recently, the team that scores the most runs still win.
Someone needs a time out if they think scoring runs in baseball is not important.
@This one belongs to the Reds
Since RISP is based on batting average you would have to believe that singles and homeruns are the same at creating runs. A single is the same as a HR afterall. Hits are hits right? And there’s whole whole sample size thing. Small sample sizes are no one’s friend.
RBI’s are a function of someone being on base when the batter gets a hit. They are completely independent of each other. Batters can’t control who gets on ahead of them. It also punishes lead off hitters because the poorest hitters (7,8,9) bat ahead of them.
Scoring runs is the objective. I suggest you read up on wRC+.
If a guy isn’t producing woth runners in scoring position, a team will look for someone who will. They don’t have to be a home run hotter.
What about hitting to the right side with a runner on 2nd or a fly ball to get that runner to 3rd? No stat measures that. Leadership skills, Defense…that’s another story in itself.
Every stat tells part of the story but not the whole story. Baseball sratisticans have spent well over 200 years trying to do that and still are.
That is why stat boys (not saying you are one) irritate me sometimes. The eye test tells you a lot more about a ballplayer than mere stats.
Just saying, numbers with RISP isn’t always a good indicator of clutch. Very often for most players, they flucuate with numbers with RISP because it’s typically a small sample size. Last year, Belt batted .208 with a .705 OPS with RISP. Two years ago, he hit .311 with a 1.082 OPS with RISP. It was about the same amount of plate appearances too (92 last year, 94 two years ago). Even last year, the most plate appearances taken with RISP was 218. No player since 2000 has had more than 245 PA’s with RISP.
Also, yes you need to drive in runs to win games, but you typically need a good line-up to drive in runs. Belt didn’t get very many opporunities to drive a runner in. He had the 9th most plate appearances with runners on base on the Blue Jays last year, and the 213th most plate appearances w/men on in 2023.
Plate appearances with men on correlates with RBI totals most of the time. Probably the best hitter with men on base last season was Yandy Diaz, who hit .377/.456/.623 with a 202 wRC+. He ranked third in BA, OBP, wOBA, and wRC+ with men on. But he ranked 57th in RBI and 152nd in plate appearances with men on base.
@This one belongs to the Reds
“What about hitting to the right side with a runner on 2nd or a fly ball to get that runner to 3rd? No stat measures that.”
Actually RE24, a lot of the leverage stats, and WPA measure that.
You can call me a stat boy if you want to. No harm no foul. Actually stats provide a complete and detailed picture of a player. The eye says he hits the ball hard (such a subjective thing). Stats say how hard, what direction, what launch angle. A nice set of numbers you can quantitatively compare to other players.
@mlb1255 where do you find stats like this so quickly: “Even last year, the most plate appearances taken with RISP was 218…” ? Thnx
Fangraphs splits leaderboard. Pretty much can find anything split dating back to about 2000, but it is sorted per year, not in total. So for example, if you want to see how Mike Trout’s OPS against RHP since his debut, you won’t get one number, but his OPS vs RHP each year since 2011.
Believing that hitting with no one on base is the exact same thing as hitting with runners in scoring position is a nice fantasy to believe in. Yes, where you bat in the lineup has an effect on RBI totals. However, if your teams analysis of where a player should be batting in the lineup doesn’t include RISP, they are not helping the teams performance.
So you’re saying TB is not batting Diaz in an optimal position. By dropping him to 2nd, or even 3rd, they would still get the value of his OBA, while getting more ABs with RISP. Seems right.
@stymeedone
Again, RISP relies on batting average. A flawed stat. BA by its own calculation asserts that all hits are the same. A single is equal to a home run thing, which it clearly isn’t. RISP doesn’t include BB which increases the probability of a run being scored. RISP uses small sample sizes which introduces wider variances making predictability sketchy at best. Hitters don’t become better hitters when there is a man in scoring position because that implies they aren’t trying to hit when the bases are empty. Batting with RISP isn’t a teachable skill.
That’s 5 reasons why RISP is a flawed stat.
Maybe, but again, it’s still a fairly small sample size. Quite often players bat .300 with a 1.000 OPS with RISP one year then bat like .200 with a .650 OPS w/risp the next year. You’re typically looking at a 150-200 plate appearance sample size, which can drastically change numbers.
NoSaint as much as Terry can be insufficient, to say RISP and RBI’s aren’t useful shows you are out of touch. Someone needs to mix in some contact to drive in runs. Maybe in your league you draw balks to score runs but that’s not how it’s done in the show.
@its_happening
See my reply to ‘This one belongs to the Reds’
I think Terry wants me to correct him. To each their own.
As long as you don’t believe walks are as good as a hit 🙂
@its_happening
LOL Never believed that even when I played little league all those years ago.
No, but they are better than striking out 30-40% of the time and flailing at anything in the area code.
At least hit the daggone ball if you make an out.
A walk isn’t as good as a hit, but it’s better than an out.
What’s going on with Donovan Solano? Not a peep about him even though he consistently hits.
Solano has hit at least .280 with a wRC+ of 100 or great since he returned to MLB in 2019. Surprised no one has took a flier on him this off-season.
I could see the Padres making a run at him for the following reasons and then why they won’t…This is for all the people in San Diego that want this to happen ;
1) Left handed 1B / DH which they could absolutely use…he can still play the position and is still a viable major league hitter.
2) Very good guy in the clubhouse and has a ton of Playoff / World Series success and would be an excellent mentor for the young guys that the Padres have on the roster.
3) He knows the NL and particularly the NL West very well.
4) He would be much more welcome in San Diego than that “Dig Me Flim Flam Pham” Jack Wagon.
Why they won’t;
1) He is asking or holding out for way to much money…12-15 million for a year isn’t going to happen as the Padres are trying to reset the CBT and avoid the salary taxes that go with it.
5 – 6 million for the season would be the max.
2) Signing him would create a lineup problem…if you played him at 1B…who sits?
3) DH only and a platoon at that as long as Machado is still recovering from elbow surgery.
When Machado returns to 3B you would still have Kim-SS , Bogaerts-2B and Cronenworth-1B, Campusano-C…even 5-6 million is still alot of money for someone who won’t see the field much if at all
4) His age and injury history is not working in his favor and the Padres tried this last season with Carpenter and that was an abject failure
When he decides that his number is playable in the 5 million range he will probably get signed and if not then he had a nice career.
Is General Body Soreness going to be in the next Star Wars trilogy?
Me thinks so, yes.
Along with Kirk and Spock
Spock went over the rainbow but Kirk is over 90 and still kickin.
More likely because of an injury some team will probably sign Belt as bench depth platoon option.
Even with JDMart NYM would probably be wise to make Belt another offer. (Despite tax) mostly to tighten up 1B defense and improve bench.
Roster spot for Wendle/Short seems redundant.
DJ Stewart could be a spark with limited ABs kind of platooning with Taylor, Marte, Bader.
Nimmo and Marte production could benefit from weekly rest (minimize injuries also)
Lindor should also start to get more days off but Short and Wendle are only adequate SS
DH rotation JDMart, Alonso, Vientos (3B/1B) (later eta June 1?), DJ Stewart, Belt (+ 20 starts 1B, ph/def. rplcmnts)
GMs have to make difficult decisions with the last 5 or so roster spots. So many rules and DFA opportunities.Injuries, limited AAA options.
I really think the MLBPA should bargain hard, (the next CBA) for a 30 man roster as the standard. Overall I believe it would improve the quality of the game. At least 1 more pitcher etc.
Belt won’t be signed for an injury replacement, as a team would need someone now. He will need to ramp up for a few weeks, and by then, the team may no longer need him, or have an internal option filling the role adequately.
Faster summary
I am a BIG proponent of platoons in general for multiple reasons. Sorry.
$15 million from $9.6 is NOT a small bump in salary. That’s over a 50% raise.
All these players remaining in free agency so long has a lot to do with the need for expansion. There’s guys in Indy ball throwing triple digits now. The talent level in baseball, worldwide, is at an all time high. Time for manfred to repair his image a little by getting baseball 4 new teams, in the next decade.
Four? That would make 34 MLB teams. That’s not a good number. It should be 2 in the near future to get to 32 teams; 16 teams per league, 4 4-team divisions.
Yes. 2 at first would be best but that should’ve been done last decade at the latest based on earlier expansions. The demographics are best they’ve ever been (in terms of total fans), profits at ATH, but the game has stagnated for decades? MLB should’ve expanded to 50 teams by the end of the 2000’s including teams in every continent except Antarctica. The growth of the game would be astronomical, its influence, reach and profits would be far beyond anything they achieve today.
Agree completely.
Matt Carpenter is currently on a ML roster. Tell me again about all that talent.
Oh stymeedone. No one here is stupid enough to fall for your strawman argument.
Matt Carpenter should’ve been out of a job many years ago. This season isn’t any different from others in that regard. How many years have you been arguing with people on this website for? 10 plus right?
The Brewers make sone sense, at this lowered expected AAV
Brandon Belt is still a FA. wild.