As the 2024 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world this weekend:
1. Series Preview: Twins @ Guardians
A series that could have major implications in this year’s race for the AL Central crown is set to begin this evening, as the Twins are set to visit the Guardians in Cleveland for a three-game set. Tonight’s game will feature Minnesota youngster Simeon Woods Richardson (3.24 ERA) taking on right-hander Triston McKenzie (3.54 ERA). Cleveland has not yet announced who will take the ball tomorrow opposite Bailey Ober (3.77 ERA), but Tanner Bibee (4.34 ERA) will start opposite Chris Paddack (4.89 ERA) during the series finale on Sunday.
Minnesota was widely expected to be the team to beat in the AL Central this season, but the club fell toward the bottom of the standings after a brutal 7-13 start, while the Guardians were white hot out of the gate with a 18-7 start over their first 25 games. Since then, the Twins have heated up, going 17-6 during a stretch that included a 12-game win streak. The Guardians, meanwhile, have started to come back down to Earth with a 9-10 record over their past 19 games. Even so, they still lead the AL Central with a 1.5-game lead over the second-place Royals and a 2.5-game lead over the Twins, who sit in third place. Will this weekend’s series shake up the Central?
2. Heyward nearing return:
Dodgers outfielder Jason Heyward is done rehabbing from the low back issue that’s kept him out of action since late March, manager Dave Roberts told reporters (including Jack Harris of the L.A. Times) last night. While the veteran wasn’t active for yesterday’s game against the Reds, Roberts indicated that he would be activated from the injured list “soon,” setting up a potential move over the weekend. Heyward impressed with the club in 124 games last year, slashing a respectable .269/.340/.473 in a platoon role.
Heyward’s return raises the question of who the Dodgers will send out to make room for him on the roster. Veteran utilitymen Enrique Hernandez and especially Chris Taylor have struggled badly this season, but neither can be optioned and would thus have to be designated for assignment to move off of the roster. That would be a major decision with Taylor in particular, as he’s under contract for 2025 with a $13MM salary that would essentially become dead money. Another possibility would be to send either James Outman or Andy Pages to the minor leagues, as both youngsters do have options remaining. Of the two, Outman appears to be the more likely candidate given that he has slashed just .147/.250/.266 in 124 trips to the plate this year.
3. Walker under evaluation:
Phillies right-hander Taijuan Walker left last night’s game against the Mets in the fourth inning after taking a comebacker off his foot. As noted by Matt Gelb of The Athletic, the Phillies announced Walker’s injury as a left foot bruise. Gelb added that Walker had managed to avoid a broken toe but the club was unsure if the veteran would make his next start. The right-hander is expected to be evaluated further today to determine next steps. In the event that Walker does require some time off due to the injury, the Phillies are fortunate to have an excellent solution to that problem in the form of right-hander Spencer Turnbull. Turnbull started the season as a member of the club’s rotation while Walker was on the injured list and dominated in the role, with an excellent 1.67 ERA and 3.21 FIP in 32 1/3 innings of work across six starts.
Maybe the Dodgers will finally end their World Series drought sometime in the next decade or 2.
Not a dodgers fan but everyone else had the same opportunities they did in 2020…
Nor a Dodgers fan either, but the OP’s comments are based in jealousy.
LordD99 I’m jealous every year when November rolls around and it’s another year with a world series parade not in Cleveland.
@Guard What is your reasoning supposed to assert here? Okay the 2020 season was equally a sham for all teams, with games played in empty stadiums, players opting out, the season stopping and starting, no minor leagues, and an idiotic round robin playoff structure. None of it should count, all records tossed, Manfred was right in regards to the 2020 trophy…just a hunk of meaningless metal.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b, I’m not sure how else to say it, but yes… EVERYONE was in the same boat, even if it was the Titanic…
You lost credibility by saying “Manfred was right”
Lol it’s pretty hard for a person to be wrong 100% of the time, even people like R. Manfred and D. Trump just out of mere random luck can be right a couple times every blue moon…(well, the jury’s out on the latter guy.)
Lololol I know but let’s not change dynamics and make him “right”.
We don’t like him, remember? Lol
I’m growing tired of these comments every dodgers post but still I must say having the same chance doesn’t really have a thing to do with whether we believe it was a very meaningful season; and as a Braves fan I am not jealous whatsoever. I love Tampa and I’d say the same thing if they won. Tho I wouldn’t say it over and over and over like a child. Also, had ATL won in 2020 and not 2021 I would still consider it as having an asterisk at best. I would actually not count it at all and it would irritate me that the only time they won in 25 years was a 60 game season. This is how I feel about Freeman’s MVP award. As a fan I didn’t watch in 2020 and considered it a largely fake season the minute I heard it was going down.
Maybe if the Padres make 5 more trades they will actually be above 500.
People hating on the Dodgers is lame. I don’t root for them but the hate is lame.
We were all more united hating on the Astros
Once you’ve decided who to hate, anything you say or do is defensible. This is the common denominator in how many people think now, even about our beloved game.
Maybe perhaps it’s not hating the Dodgers as much as hating what the 2020 “season” amounted to…a sh$% sandwich in all aspects. Would feel exactly the same way if my team won the worthless 2020 trophy.
Yes the whole 2020 season was kind of lame but don’t take that out on the Dodgers. If my team had won it all I would have enjoyed it even if I would have enjoyed it more being in the stands and around other people.
Stupid troll comment
Those guys playing fast and loose with the CBT rules and still not being able to win would be pretty daggone funny to the rest of yhe league’s fans.
The rules need to change. But they are playing by the rules. And its not like they are winning all the time they have what 1 championship in the last 30 plus years? The Marlins have more than that.
Let’s go Spencer is so back
Spencer who? Hope you aren’t talking about fluke Turnbull
KC will be aiming to leapfrog the two “frontrunners” as they trade shots…
“aiming to” is key there. But it’s the AL Central so they don’t have to aim too high
Yeah, no. 4th place finish and 80 wins/
If the Dodgers are hoping that JHey will help give them the spark they want, they are desperate. If the Cubs were counting on him for 2024, this site would be blown up with criticism.
And for the Twins, seven of the first ten games from their recent winning streak – came from the incompetence of the White Sox. It almost shouldn’t count.
They’re 7 games up in the division. They don’t need a spark. Just some league average production for that horrid bottom third of the lineup….
Heyward’s back is hurt from him carrying the Cubs all those years.
Yes the Cubs are treated like a red headed step child on this site. Lol what?????
Desperate? Uh, right. Heyward has been productive for the Dodgers in his platoon role. This is all he’s expected to deliver for them.
BTW, the article is mistaken about how many bucks the Dodgers would have to eat to DFA Taylor. It’s closer to $30M. The balance of this year’s $13M, next year’s $13M, and a $4M buyout for 2026. This one reason why Outman will get the demotion when Heyward returns.
His .147 batting average will be reason number 2 as well
And it will be addition by subtraction. Outman is clearly guessing and hoping at the plate at this point. He’s Taylor-like frustrating as a fan.
I don’t think that’s unreasonable to hope for but I don’t think one should EXPECT Heyward to replicate those numbers. We can’t ignore the previous seasons where he was bad and his good work last year came in the platoon role which is to say less than 400 at bats, so it’s even more likely to be a bit fluky. But Idk. He’s always had talent and it couldn’t even hurt playing with Freeman who has been a great friend since they were roommates in minors. We’ll see. He’s behind too, starting on the IL, which may not help.
Can somebody explain what happened to the Dodgers last night ?? Glasnow comes out and throws a turd against a crappy Reds team was not expected. I am glad I don’t wager on baseball.
Wonder why Allen isn’t announced as the starter for Cleveland tomorrow. Should be his turn.
Text Joe noga or Paul hoynes. Maybe a trade in the works.
Cleveland is not trading Allen. They do not have the available pitching depth to replace him.
Based on fWAR the AL Central standings should be:
MIN 24 – 19
CLE 23 – 21
KCR 23 – 22
DET 21 – 22
CHW 13 – 31
Twins are pretty much where they should be but CLE & KCR are overperforming. I expect some regression coming for CLE and KC.
Explains what WAR is good for…
@This one belongs to the Reds
WAR is mostly a stat made up by nerds, agents & teams to put a $-amount on a player. It doesn’t mean the guy will greatly benefit your team if he put up 5,000 WAR last season. It’s the McHappy Meal of baseball stats.
And fortunately it comes in different flavors, so it tastes good no matter what kind of WAR you like to eat.
@BlueSkies_LA
I have my own WAR where Acuna & Trout are below replacement level players…
Does it come with a side of slaw?
The old eyeball test is still the best indicator of performance, or lack thereof.
@This one belongs to the Reds
Yes, the eyeball test is the best evaluator. You can have all the random numbers that you want but it doesn’t mean anything compared to the eyeball test.
Unfortunately we all don’t have time to watch every play of every game. That’s why people use WAR. And your eyes need to know what to look for. That’s also not a given.
I’ll trust WAR over your eyeballs.
Yeah the intelligent ones among us use WAR and other metrics. The others have to rely on their old eyeballs.
WAR isn’t perfect but it’s the best we have and it’s pretty darn good.
For what?
For judging a baseball players total contributions to his team. Hey we all want be Dodgers fans and wait for the team to spend more money. Some fans are trying to find value in places where people don’t always look. WAR helps do that.
@Hammerin’ Hank
What proof do you have that WAR is better than the eyeball?
Name a player that you think is better or worse than his WAR and explain why.
As I said already you don’t watch every game and every player playing them. And even if yoh did your eyes might not know what to look for. Can you really tell if an outfielder gets good jumps on fly balls or how good a base runner someone is? I doubt it.
@Blackpink in the area
But that’s not where you look for value. That just tells you how the player performed last year, based on formulas created by certain individuals. For pitchers, I look at FRA to see how they might perform next year. It gives me a better look at what type of pitcher they are. I looked at Snells data last year and he had an almost 4.00 FRA for the season. That scared me and I was opposed to him being signed. Unfortunate for the Giants, they signed him and now he’s a deadweight. Haha! Your WAR suggests he should have been signed to a mega deal. Hilarious!
WAR said Blake Snell was a 4 win player last year. Not some generational talent simply a 4 win player a good player not a great one. You are making stuff up fella.
For pitchers I prefer FIP. I really don’t know what FRA is but I bet it’s similar to FIP. And FIP says Snell was good not great last year. Just like WAR. And there is no evidence at all that the Giants made a bad decision. The guy didn’t have a typical spring training. He started off terribly last year and once he got in a groove was the best pitcher in baseball. And he didn’t get a mega contract either.
What you are saying simply isn’t true.
Jarren Duran (2.6 WAR) is one of the best players in the game today. Kyle Tucker (2.5)… Juan Soto (1.9)… not as good. Colton Cowser (0.9) is about average. Luis Robert Jr (-0.1) could be replaced by a AAA player. Javy Baez (-0.8) is better than Spencer Torkelson (-1.0)
Duran is an above average hitter playing great defense at a premium position. Soto has no defensive value at all he’s a DH on most teams. Tucker and Duran basically have the same WAR so arguing that a guy is .1 higher than the other is kinda dumb. Baez and Torkelson both suck. Baeez plays a premium position Torkelson does not. Luis Robert has been hurt all year that’s why he’s not producing WAR.
Dude……
So… you just basically judged every player based on their WAR… LOL
Dude you’re a knucklehead your logic makes no sense. U said u use your eyes and u used your eyes to look at a war stat era to say he was good. If you used your eyes to see how he pitched last year he was a cy young pitcher that did deserve big money. Also stats give u data on a pitchers tendencies and effectiveness. I don’t see why u can’t use both. You sound like a clown
And snell had a 2.25 era last year not sure what you’re talking about his almost 4 era evidently your eyes don’t work that well
The intelligent ones do NOT use WAR. If they did it would be a kept secret in baseball.
over the first 27 games Joey Gallo had a .2 WAR while Freddie Freeman’s was .1
Only for fantasy baseball purposes. Has anyone even tried to correlate WAR to actual wins? That’s how you prove it has statistical value. Otherwise it’s just a number.
There is absolutely positively a direct correlation between WAR and wins. That’s kinda how the whole thing works.
Do some research.
Anyone who thinks there is a fictional “replacement” across the board is just fooling themselves.
But that’s how stat boys roll.
Do I really have to explain all this?
A replacement level player is equal to the average AAA player. It means that if someone gets hurt and you were to call up an average AAA player at that particular position they would be replacement level.
“Do some research”..W.A.R OVER values walks and UNDER values run producers/scorers. That’s how Soto has a higher W.A.R than many better all-around players(Betts, Acuna, Judge etc). How else could a guy(Kyle Schwarber)with 47 hrs, 100+ rbis and 100+ runs scored be worth only .5 W.A.R. This suggests half the league brings more value than 47 hrs, 100+ rbi & 100+ runs scored, which is ridiculous.
Kyle Schwarber was literally the worst defensive player in baseball last year THAT is why his WAR was so low. He would have been at DH if the Philly team wasn’t such a mess and Harper didn’t have the injuries he had. He was and still is one of the rare players that actually loses value when he plays defense. He’s awful out there.
I have. Positive correlations are common and not meaningful in of themselves. Explaining variability is the purpose of statistical models, and how you judge their predictive value. So if the stat is so good, why do we need to have multiple flavors of WAR?
Can somebody explain to me how WAR values (or doesn’t value) a guy like Kyle Schwarber who perennially grades out very low but is indisputably valuable to his team ?? Appreciate any insights.
Yes! For instance I have a hard time determining if an outfielder takes the best route to a ball because I am watching the ball, not what the outfielder is doing. He may make the catch just fine, but he may run in 5 different directions first and then overcompensate. That stuff doesn’t usually get commented on by the announcers either as long as the out was made.
We don’t need multiple WARs. I only use Fangrpahs WAR because I know how their system works and I have seen it evolve over the years when needed.
I will say it again. Kyle Schwarber was literally the worst defensive player in all of baseball in 2023. I know because for a while it was Jordan Walker(I am a Cardinals fan) and I spent a lot of time looking it up. Walker improved over the last month and Schwarber ended up being the worst.
Yes that is the kind of thing WAR can see that you or me might not notice.
Defense matters. As a Cardinal fan I remember when from 2014 to 2015 we went from Carlos Beltran in right field to Jason Heyward. Beltran was old at this point and his defense was terrible. It changed the whole team the Cardinals had the best record in baseball in 2015.
“Explains what WAR is good for…”
Hahahahaha! =). This comment wins the internet for the day!
Vegas win total expectations:
Twins – 87.5
Guardians – 86.5
Royals – 81.5
Tigers – 79.5
White Sox – 57.5
I wonder if the Dodgers would trade Taylor and reliever Kelly and maybe a catching prospect for a prospect or a less expensive reliever?
Joe Kelly, Chris Taylor and Dalton Rushing? Saves them some $
I definitely see a catcher being traded away at some point. Unfortunately Chris Taylor has such negative value right now that it’s hard to believe anyone would want him even for free. Such a shame as he has been great for a lot of his tenure.
Attaching a dead contract to a highly regarded player in a trade means you get nothing of note in return.
Signed, a still-pissed Red Sox fan
I was about to say that.
2 seemingly dead weight guys nobody wants costing $21 (8 and 13) million this year and $13 million next year.
Rushing might be the price to get them off the payroll. The return would be a dollar, not a reliever.
Ooo, what if they include a bad contract going to the Dodgers… Kelly, Taylor, Rushing for Javy Baez and Tigers include some $. This gives the Dodgers some salary relief and a defensive SS so they can move Betts back to the OF. He’s 31, he proved he can play short… let him rest in the OF. He has a long contract to live out.
Tigers get a top prospect at catcher. They get a reliever Fetter can work with. Taylor could play SS for now and maybe super utility if someone takes over SS. This will remove an Avila signing that Tiger fans have complained about since day 1.
In addition to the need, the Dodgers moved Betts to the infield to save his legs. He isn’t going to get any “rest” in RF.
Why in the world would the Dodgers want Javy Baez? In 317 games as a Tiger he has a career 0.611 OPS. Just because he plays SS? They have some guy named Mookie Betts and Rojas on top of that for depth. Also, why would the Dodgers part with Joe Kelly when they need relievers due to injuries. Why would they trade their best catching prospect when he’s still a couple of years away? Lots of why. Just to get rid of Taylor? Sorry, not happening.
Baez and Lux up the middle with Betts in RF is better than Betts and Lux up the middle and Taylor in RF.
I will remind you of this if Betts gets hurt at SS.
Also, Betts at SS not a big deal. Yeah, he’s better in RF. I’m not sure if I buy that SS is impacting his offense. Still way too early to make that argument. I mean the guy was on fire early this year while playing SS. If the OFs don’t produce it’s much easier to find another OF bat than a SS bat, so it doesn’t seem like Betts is moving back to the OF anytime soon. There would have to be some injuries in the OF before that happens.
I see you working, but no way in hell I’m giving up Rushing with a net return of Javier Baez.
Mookie isn’t going back to the OF anytime soon per Roberts and the Dodgers FO. I’d be more inclined to move Cartaya and others for an everyday MLB SS to improve the bottom of the lineup offensively.
A 7 game lead is a good thing to have while discussing how to make the squad better.
You also lose Taylor and Kelly… that’s like $38 mil. including the buyout for Taylor. Then the Tigers pay most of Baez, so he’s paid like a defense first SS. For a prospect catcher.
SS gets much more action than RF. More chances to get hurt. Betts is probably the best offensive player in the league. Why risk him at SS when he’s a gold glove RFer?
I’m not sure if I’d want Baez even if he was free. Definitely not with that contract. How is he better than Rojas for the money?
They’ve gotta do something to get Taylor outta there. He’s been incredibly bad for 2 years now.
How does Joe Kelly get contracts like that? I haven’t seen him healthy for an entire season like maybe ever. Is it all played off his time with the Red Sox when he had a moment in the postseason?
Ask Taylor to do a voluntary 2 week assignment in the minors to get playing time and his confidence back!
I never really thought Chris Taylor was any good. He’s versatile but has never really been able to hit. The sabermetrics guys totally overvalue defensive versatility in my opinion. I feel the same way about Kiki Hernandez .
Have to remember that both are bench players. I agree that both are not very good as starters but because of versatility they’re solid bench players.
I personally hated the Taylor signing as it was way too much $ for a bench guy. But at this point I’d rather keep him and hope he bounces back than eating the remainder of that expensive contract. Can still be a useful bench player.
How can a series in mid-May have “major implications” for a divisional race? Such hyperbole. Also, you have to start the sentence with “meanwhile.” It can’t be in the middle, between commas. Further, there should be commas before and after “in particular.” Deeds’ writing continues to stink.