Yankees chairman Hal Steinbrenner appeared on the Yankees News & Views podcast today and host Jack Curry of the YES Network asked him about the possibility of extending superstar outfielder Juan Soto. The YES Network shared a video clip on X.
“I think we’d like to see him here for the rest of his career,” Steinbrenner said. “I don’t think there’s any doubt of that.” He goes on to say that Scott Boras, Soto’s agent, doesn’t normally do extensions midseason. Steinbrenner says he generally prefers to avoid talks during the season as well so that they don’t become a distraction, but that Soto is a special case.
That’s due to Soto’s obvious talents but also since he’s only been a Yankee for a few months, having been acquired from the Padres in December with just one season left to go before he’s slated to reach free agency. Steinbrenner said he wanted to give Soto some time to get to know the organization before getting into talks about long-term plans. “I wouldn’t be shocked if there was a conversation or two had, possibly during the course of the season.”
In the latter half of the clip shared above, Curry relays that he contacted Boras about what Steinbrenner said. Boras said he is always willing to talk to Steinbrenner but that Soto is focused on winning.
Soto himself was asked about the comments after this afternoon’s game and echoed what Boras said, with the YES Network sharing a clip on X of those as well. “My door is always open,” Soto said. “Whenever he wants to start talking with Scott and all his people, they’re always open. They’re always open to hear whatever he has. And for me, I just focus on the game right now.”
The topic of Soto’s future free agency, or an extension to prevent that free agency from happening, has been a topic of conversation for quite a long time. That’s on account of how he debuted at such an unusually young age and also due to him finding immediate success that he has maintained or improved. Soto debuted with the Nationals in 2018 when he was only 19 years old. He hit 22 home runs in 116 games while drawing walks in 16% his plate appearances. His .292/.406/.517 batting line translated to a 146 wRC+.
He’s never provided much in terms of speed or defense, but his combination of power and plate discipline is exceptional and has remained quite consistent. He currently has 169 home runs in his career and an 18.7% walk rate, while striking out just 16.9% of the time. He has slashed .286/.420/.525 overall and has a 155 wRC+, which includes a .310/.408/.530 line and 170 wRC+ as a Yankee this year.
Those skills and his age put him on course for a massive contract. Most free agents reach free agency for the first time in the vicinity of their 30th birthday but Soto is still just 25. He’ll turn 26 on October 25, just before he’s slated to hit the open market.
The fact that Steinbrenner is interested in an extension is somewhat notable since the club doesn’t do them very often. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that they have done just three in the past decade, which were for Luis Severino, Aaron Hicks and Aroldis Chapman. Those deals didn’t go especially well for the most part and the club may not be thrilled at doing more extensions in general, but Soto is clearly in a different stratosphere than those players. That Steinbrenner is willing to make an exception here is unsurprising, but actually getting it done won’t be cheap.
Back in 2022, the Nationals reportedly offered Soto $440MM over 15 years. When he rejected that overture, they decided to trade him instead, which is how he came to be a Padre. While that may be a massive sum to leave on the table, he’s already earned himself a decent chunk of that. Since turning down that deal, he made $23MM last year and is making $31MM this year, his final two arbitration seasons. That means any contract higher than $386MM will prove that he made a wise financial decision in turning it down.
Last month, Boras revealed that the late Peter Seidler tried to get a deal done to keep Soto in San Diego. However, Seidler’s deteriorating health got in the way of the talks and he passed away in November. The next month, Soto was traded to the Yankees as the Padres’ financial situation forced them to make budget cuts.
Keeping Soto away from the open market is obviously going to be a challenge. Yankees’ general manager Brian Cashman admitted as much in February. “The odds are this is a one-year situation,” he said. “I don’t see too many things stopping him from reaching free agency.”
There has been all kinds of speculation about what kind of number it would take to get Soto’s signature on a contract. The round number of $500MM is often thrown around as a speculative ballpark figure, but that’s really just a guess.
Since Soto is now just a few months away from the open market, there’s little incentive for him to accept anything except free agency prices. The largest contract in MLB history is Shohei Ohtani’s recent ten-year, $700MM pact with the Dodgers. The heavy deferrals on the deal make the net present value closer to the $435-465MM range, though that adjusted figure still makes it the largest ever, both in terms of total guarantee and average annual value.
Soto obviously doesn’t have the two-way abilities of Ohtani nor the same international marketing power, but Ohtani is now 29 and about to turn 30, meaning Soto will be marketing three to four extra prime years compared to Shohei. That youth is clearly valuable to teams, as was recently seen with the Yoshinobu Yamamoto free agency. Going into his age-25 season, he drew widespread interest despite having no major league experience. He eventually shattered expectations when he signed for $325MM over 12 years, plus a posting fee of over $50MM.
The Yankees have long been one of the biggest spenders in baseball, but they have a decent amount of money on the books already. Between Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole, Giancarlo Stanton and Carlos Rodón, they have four players making $25MM or more through 2027 or longer. The Marlins are paying down a bit of Stanton’s deal but the Yankees already have almost $150MM committed to books three years down the line, per Roster Resource.
For a generational talent like Soto, they likely wouldn’t care much about adding another huge contract to the pile. Still, Boras might want to wait a few more months to see what teams like the Mets, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Phillies or others have to offer. Getting them to the table would increase the chances of a bidding war driving up prices and the Yanks might have to put down a huge number to stop that from happening.
He’s not leaving the Yankees. It’s just a question of what they’ll eventually pay him.
It would be funny if he takes a deferred contract with the Dodgers
Shadow – What’s funnier is how the Red Sox continue to be mentioned all the time here as possible suitors for big name free agents.
“Boras might want to wait a few more months to see what teams like the Mets, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Phillies or others have to offer.”
I know it’s just click bait, but even the thought of the Sox offering something close to a half billion dollars to anybody – let alone an outfielder, which they already have plenty of even before Roman joins the team – really is hysterical.
Fever, I feel the same way about my Cubs. They keep getting mentioned as suitors for the big free agents, but it’s mostly hyperbole.They want their fans to believe they’re trying to get guys like Ohtani, for example, but they’re only willing to go so far. And in the end, probably know they aren’t going to get their guy. But it sounds good and a lot of naive fans eat it up. I wouldn’t be surprised if your Sox do the same thing .
Coop – Absolutely my Sox did that, even worse actually. They were constantly reported as favorites for many big name free agents, only for the team to later on state they weren’t really interested.
I think the Cubs and Red Sox are uniquely similar in that they both play in historic parks and milk that for all it’s worth, which means winning is not a priority. They’ve both been 3rd-4th in revenue for a while now, so the profits have been there. But the lack of interest in Boston is getting much worse and the revenue continues to dive, so we will see how far they allow it to continue before they start spending again.
@Fever. Curious. When you refer to “lack of interest” do you mean from fans or players?
Lord – I won’t speak for the players, most of them are quite young and just trying to establish themselves while all are too intelligent to go on record.
It’s the fan interest that has really cratered. For instance I have watched every home game this year, the number of empty seats is staggering (can’t go by attendance figures). The flood of tickets for sale at crazy low prices ($8 even) is another indicator. Everyone I’ve spoken to has said the same thing, the Red Sox are not being talked about and we have proof they are not being watched on TV. Last place teams with no star power will do that.
sportsbusinessjournal.com/Articles/2024/01/29/bost…
Red Sox ratings on NESN TV dwindle following poor performances
1.29.2024
The Red Sox ratings on NESN TV have “cratered in recent seasons,” and It is “impossible to believe that many will elect to stay glued to an uninteresting team that’s unlikely to be competitive,” according to Sean McAdam of MASSLIVE.com.
While NESN telecasts once “routinely pulled 8.0 or 9.0 ratings,” the team last year often “averaged between 2.0-3.0.”
He wants no deferred money is what I remember him stating earlier. Not to say the Yanks can’t offer that but I believe he will hit the market just like Judge did before him. I’m sure he wants to experience it.
It was posted in the Athletic that he is interested in Ohtani contract size but not deferred money.
14/600
Agree.
More likely Dodgers sign Roku Sasaki than Soto.
Sure looks like Yankees are only team likely to consider as much as $450 million. I think 9 years at $50 million a year no deferrals would be more than enough. I think Soto will be a DH most of the contract.
Soto is 25 years old. He will get 14-15 years.
He will get more than Judge for an AAV because he has been a comparable overall hitter and his age..
The math is undeniable.
Not anywhere near the defensive player though.
Sasaki will sign for around $6 million if he comes to the US this offseason, the max any team will be able to spend on him because he is under 25.
I think Soto is going to want 2 bites of the apple. I think he will do 5 years at 300 million so that at age 30 he can possibly go 7 years at 700 and become baseball’s first 100 million a year guy. Given Shohei’s contract, and the rate of inflation on these contracts, I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s the goal. Y’all can get the 14 or 15 year contract out your head, he’s not doing that.
kingbum,
Your idea of him taking two bites of the apple is intriguing, but there is no chance he’s getting 7/$700M in 5 years unless most of the money is deferred until nearly the end of time.
gbs – There’s also zero chance he will get $300M/5 this offseason with no deferrals, not just one year after the greatest player in MLB history got $46M/yr. Inflation isn’t THAT bad.
The Nats valued him at $29M/yr less than 2 years ago.
I expect Boras to ask for $50M/yr and end up at $46.1M/yr because setting new records is usually what elite free agents look to do.
So you don’t think a club would go 55 57.5 60 62.5 65 on a 5 year deal? Because I see a Steve Cohen out there frustrated and would see Soto as the perfect building block because of his age. I think Boras will tell Soto to sign a deal with player opt outs at least after 4 years. The Giants need Soto to compete against the Dodgers, power hitting is their number 1 weakness. At the rate of inflation of professional contracts, I have no doubt someone will be getting 100 million a year. Soto 2 years ago was getting 29 million, he’s gonna play next year at 55 million, why would 100 million be unreasonable? Stars get paid, other contracts won’t go up like this but he’s different like Ohtani. Soto will be in the class with Bonds, Pujols, and A-Rod when he’s done because he started putting up numbers at 19.
bum – Not without deferrals, no. There’s multiple reasons why I say that.
1) Fewer teams willing and able to take on a salary of that magnitude. I think both NY teams will be finalists, but I expect him to be a Met because of the Yankees payroll situation.
2) Soto has performed well this year, but significantly worse since that contract extension was offered by the Nats.
2018-2021 he had a .980 OPS
2022-2024 he has only an .897 OPS
3) The Nats offer was for 15 years, which is why even with the modest AAV it was still the largest contract ever offered in MLB.
4) How can any team justify paying Soto an AAV that’s more than Ohtani’s over the next 5 years? Ohtani has put up a 1.075 OPS since the start of 2023 and he will be an All-Star pitcher when he is back to health. You really think a .920 OPS mediocre outfielder is worth 30% more than Ohtani?
Personally I think Soto gets like $470M over 10 years with opt-outs beginning after Year 3 or 4.
Look at it this way, 5 years ago the largest contract in MLB history was Trout’s $360M.
It took 5 years to beat Trout’s contract by $100M, which is only a 28% increase.
The more 10-14 year mega contracts are in effect, the less owners have to spend. And every year that number of active mega contracts keeps growing.
kb,
The Mets would have to pay a 110% tax on those numbers. No player will get an owner to spend $115M-$135M per year. And no, $100M for a player ( before luxury tax) in 2030 isn’t happening.
FPG,
Offense is down quite a bit the last few years.
2018-2021 he had a 160 OPS+
2022-2024 he has a 154 OPS+
A little worse, but not much and still elite.
GBS, So would the Yankees and Dodgers.
Take out 2020. Way too many players were far from their career norms that season including Soto. I think I read that 50% of all players were 40% above or below their career averages that year.. just throw everything that happened that year out.
So compare
2018-2019 – 142 OPs+
vs
2021-2023 – 160 OPS+
That is real.
Fever, you make some solid points. I think he’ll make more than Ohtani due to age. Yamamoto got a lot more than predicted because he’s young and I think the same will happen with Soto
gbs – I agree with your last sentence, but not your first one.
Scherzer, McCann and Verlander are coming off the books after this season, that’s $65M savings. And if they let Alonso walk, which they probably would if they sign Soto, then that’s another $21M savings.
So they wouldn’t be over the top threshold anymore.
gbs – Without question Soto is elite, all I’m saying is he’s not valuable enough to make significantly more than Ohtani over the next 5 years.
In fact since 2022 there are 6 guys who have hit better than Soto …. Judge, Alvarez, Ohtani, Betts, Altuve and Freeman.
oh – Thanks! When you say more, do you mean AAV or total contract?
Present day total value higher. AAV less due to Soto a few years longer.
14-15 for 500-550 present value is my guess
Fever,
The average OPS from 2018 to 2021 was .738.
The average OPS from 2022 to 2024 is 712.
Offense is down.
outinleftfield,
The average OPS for 2020 was .740, almost exactly average for that four-year period. It was a shorter season, so there was less time for performances to average out, but you shouldn’t just ignore it.
You hit it on the head, age…..Soto is at 160+ OPS territory before age 25. Now I understand there’s a chance they lied on his birth certificate but if that is true wouldn’t his peak years then be about 180-200 OPS+? Like Barry Bonds on roids territory? Ohtani is at peak right now, he’s what 29 or 30? These are Ohtani’s peak years and that is why his contract is a behemoth. I think though ultimately that’s why eventually Soto will get a higher AAV than Ohtani. I know Babe Ruth asked not to pitch it got in the way of his hitting, I think the Dodgers might ask Ohtani not to pitch. As a DH Ohtani has 10 years left….he doesn’t as a pitcher…
king – Sorry but you are severely overestimating the value of top DH’s.
Ohtani’s best 4 offensive years, from 2021 to now, he has a .975 OPS.
Ortiz’s best 4 offensive years, from 2003-2007, he had a 1.014 OPS.
Ortiz wasn’t even in the Top 20 Salary for ANY of those 4 years.
If the Dodgers were expecting Ohtani to DH more than half of the contract, they wouldn’t have paid him nearly as much as they did.
Fever,
OPS varies as offense varies.
Ortiz had a 159 OPS+ from 2004-2007 (best four-season stretch, ’03-’07 is five).
Ohtani has a 165 OPS plus from 2021-now. He also is an international superstar who can be marketed to a county of 125M people, which is a unique financial advantage for the Dodgers.
GBS – So the OPS+ numbers were similar. BTW – Ortiz was also an international star, he owned the DR.
So are you saying Ohtani would have gotten the same contract he did if there were no plans for him to ever pitch again? That was the point I was disagreeing with. DH’s don’t get the biggest contract in baseball no matter how well they hit.
Sasaki will be an international free agent and since he is still under 25, that means teams will have a set amount they can spend. Unless they trade for more money, the most is just under $6 million I think and teams can trade for up to half that amount more.
Signing Soto won’t keep the Dodgers from signing Sasaki if he wants to play for them. Sasaki is not coming for the money. He is coming because he wants to play in MLB and he gets to choose his team.
Come on Yanks!
$1 Billion over 25 years!
He will if someone offers more money. Remember, it’s almost always about the money with free agents. They talk a good game about wanting to play for a winning team, and this and that, but with only a few exceptions, it usually comes down the dollars and length of the deal.
it’s not complicated: if the yankees make the highest offer he’ll stay and if someone else makes a higher offer he’ll leave
There’s millions of reasons why he would leave the Yankees. They won’t offer the most money and he would be second to Judge his entire career.
I think that pretty much everyone thought that he would end up with the Yankees and stay there long term. The only question is how much money is it going to take? If he truly turned down 15 years and more than a half billion offer from Peter Seidler to stay with the Padres, how much will he want to stay with the Yankees? My guess is that going into free agency at just 25 years old he will be asking for 15 years and $40 million AAV or more. What Judge got in AAV is the minimum. Can any other team beside the Yankees, Mets, and Dodgers afford to add a player that will cost them at least $600 million?
If he takes a deal from the Yankees he’s dead to me again.
He’s going to die twice?
They’ll extend him but be irrelevant in a couple years
Kinda like how Boston has been irrelevant since 2018
The Yankees have no future. The stars are gonna break down like Cole already has and they are playoff chokers. At least the Sox have hope.
The Yankees have very few holes on their big league roster and a deep farm system so they’re not going anywhere. Sounds like hope is all you have to hold on to. As the saying goes, hope in one hand and $h!t in the other. See which one fills up first
I wouldn’t say very few, Rizzo and Torres and Stanton are degrading, there is 3rd base, Grisham is batting .069 so judge has to stay in center
But give credit to the Yankees for fixing that bullpen I’m still amazed it’s this good despite losing so many relievers this offseason
Wait a minute. Yankees fans not that long ago would tell a Rays fan that prospects are just that…… prospects.
That’s true, they are. But pretty sure yankee fans didn’t say that – they were trying to trade Andujar and Frazier for the world
Fenway 1. The Red Sox have no hope. They won’t make the playoffs once again. The owner doesn’t care and the team has little talent at all. Maybe they can negotiate a trade with Atlanta to get Sale back.
Well…the Yankees have played over 30 straight years of winning baseball. I know you are super jealous, and hoping to speak something into existence. Red Sox fans are really cute. It’s like when your little brother is cry punching you, and you just hold him back with one arm while laughing. One day, that coyote is going to catch that roadrunner. You just wait and see!
Boston wasn’t relevant in 2021? If I recall, didn’t they beat the Yankees that year?
Oh yes, reminiscant of the Francisco Lindor deal that I so accurately predicted being dog Doodoo after two years
11.6 WAR in last 2 seasons. Not exactly doodoo.
In fact, it’s the best in baseball at his position.
@Shadow Lindor was 9th in MVP voting the last 2 seasons. He’s been very productive for the Mets.
Shadow Banned
the Francisco Lindor deal that I so accurately predicted being dog Doodoo after two years
========================
Good. Not too many people come in here to admit that they were wrong.
If they traded all of that for a 1 year rental then the Yankees really have gone mental.
It should be interesting to see because after the spanking Boras took this past offseason, Soto is now his crown jewel.
What exactly did they lose that makes the trade not worth the 1 year rental? Im waiting cause King is doing so-so and the rest nothing!
It’s a 1 year rental. Padres flipped Thope in the Cease deal. Doesn’t really matter because the Steinbrenners don’t have the pitching and would be lucky to make the championship series. Happy Trails.
The Yankees have allowed the fewest runs per game in the league and Cole hasn’t even pitched yet. You sound like every other clueless Yankee hater
2nd in MLB with a 2.91 ERA and 4th in runs scored is a pretty good formula for a team that doesn’t have an ace yet.
As a Yankee fan, I have no problem giving up *most* of our prospects anymore. Usually they don’t pan out and we come out the winners of the trade or neutral
What did they trade that is “all that”. I know the Yankee PR people did a great job of pretending that Brito and Vazquez were on the verge of HOF pitching careers, but they were just AAA arms that Matt Blake converted into Juan Soto. Luis Gil is better than both of them.
Shrek: Like that’s ever gonna happen! *flush*
…the world is gonna roll me. I ain’t the sharpest tool in the shed….
… she was looking kinda dumb with her finger and her thumb in the shape of an L on her forehead…
Well. The years start comin’ and they don’t stop comin’…
They will play brian cashman’s stupid ass for whatever they want in the next contract.
The end.
Cashman has no say in this, just as he had no say in the A-Rod extension. He was against it. Owner level. This is basic knowledge that even a casual baseball fan should understand.
The only stupid thing Cashman could do is not pay Soto whatever he asks for.
Soto is not leaving New York, the Yankees are going to treat him like Alex Rodriguez, even though Rodriguez didn’t sign the first deal with the Yankees and there was the turmoil after the 2nd one, but both of them are the generational type of star, and that type of star cannot leave the Bronx
It would be stupid of him and Boras not to go to free agency and get the Mets with their billionaire owner involved in the bidding.
Then he could still stay in New York.
Staying in New York and playing for the Mets is not the same as being a Yankee. Come on dawg.
That’s a matter of opinion, and money talks and BS walks.
The Yankees are objectively the most recognizable sports brand in the world. That is not my opinion. And yes, the money that comes with that talks and the BS about the Mets being of equal or greater value to that of the Yankees walks!!
But Steve Cohen’s money talks louder than that of other owners.
And a player of Soto’s caliber doesn’t need the Yankees brand to be rich and famous.
His money talks the same. He will not outbid the Yankees for Soto. The Yankees will match any offer for Soto. Then he just has to pick which team he wants to play for. The most storied franchise in the history of professional sports, or an expansion team that wears orange. Soto can make more in endorsement deals by being a Yankee than Cohen could ever pay him. Soto is already rich and famous. He doesn’t need Cohen or the Yankees for that. Now it is about legacy. The Mets cannot compete on that front.
Lark, not sure that is true anymore since Ohtani and Yamamoto signed with the Dodgers.
Wherever he signs he will be rich.
larkraxm: You cannot and don’t know how high the Yankees or any team will bid.
And again, Soto doesn’t need any legacy in deciding where to play.
You might be correct, but as hard as it may be for a Yankees fanboy like you to accept this, it’s not every player’s dream to be a Yankee.
The Yankees did not make Ohtani an Offer, and they were not “outbid” by LA for Yamamoto. Many considered the Yankee’s offer better because it allowed Yamamoto the chance to opt out earlier. They both wanted to be in LA. I also live on the Best Coast, so I don’t blame them. Juan Soto just told the media he is open to signing right now with the Yankees. So now it is just a matter of money, which should not be an issue.
Paying Soto is an investment for any team, not an expense. I don’t know what the final numbers will be, that is true, but the Yankees will be willing to pay Soto’s market rate for sure. They will make billions from having him on the roster. I know that not every player wants to play for the Yankees, but that doesn’t matter because Juan Soto does want to play for the Yankees and that is the player that we were talking about.
Read between the lines. He’s just saying the politically correct things to maximize the Yankees interest.
No way he limits his market signs before hitting free agency.
That is an interesting read on your part! He has been saying since the trade that he would talk contract after the season, until this week, when he said he was open to being a Yankee long term and not waiting until the end of the season to negotiate. He is maximizing the Yankee’s interest in him by playing at an MVP level, and waiting to negotiate until after the season won’t change the Yankee’s interest level. I agree that he will most likely not sign an extension mid-season, but Soto talking about being willing to negotiate in season is new and an encouraging development for the Yankees, keeping Soto long term. Reading between the lines is a fun exercise, but reading the actual lines is helpful too.
But reading between the lines and considering his motivation for saying things provides greater insight.
No it doesn’t! It allows Mets fans to think it means something other than he is enjoying playing for the Yankees and is ready to talk at any time, which is what he said!
But actions speak louder than words, so if he doesn’t actually sign before hitting free agency, then what he said will be meaningless.
Time will tell.
lark – Did you just say the Yankees interest level won’t change after the season?
Sorry but there’s a guy named Judge that would beg to differ.
Yankees don’t like extending players during the couple years prior to free agency, and they didn’t even do it for Judge.
Look at how much the Yankees “interest” in Judge increased from April 2022 to December 2022.
Baron is 100% correct, Boras is just trying to ignite the bidding by allowing the Yankees to make offers in-season.
When in the history of MLB has a pending big name free agent NOT said he would love to stay with his current team?
I also think Boras may have learned his lesson and won’t drag on negotiations this coming offseason, especially considering one of Soto’s prime suitors (Mets) will likely not wait very long on Soto because they will likely pivot to Alonso if Soto doesn’t sign with them.
I think the conversation starts with a 7.
18 years $750 Million.
Unless he can also pitch at an all star level he’s not making Ohtani money.
“He’s not making Ohtani money”…Even the $500M number the media is floating is rather ridiculous. He’s a great hitter, no doubt, but for a variety of reasons, I believe there’s only 2 teams(Yankees/Mets)that would even offer Soto $400M. Unless Boras can get a bidding war going with only 2 teams, I don’t see Soto reaching the $440M that the Nats reportedly offered.
For some reason i keep thinking it will end up at 11-440
It only takes one. In fact, there doesn’t even have to be a bidding war. A *perceived* bidding war is enough. He will get at least 500M.
Jay- That’s probably not far from what boras has *started* with. like better than Ohtani money, ’cause u know boras’s ego tells him Soto is just better somehow and he’ll hold him out as long as he can to get every last nickel.
Yeah, I never said he’s worth it or anything. This is what they’re going for I think, for sure.
johnsilver: Or he’ll end up unsigned by ST and take whatever deal he can get.
Yes but most of the world knows Ohtani is better than Soto
12 years 575 million
14/600, 100 deferred
I think the Giants will be dumb enough to fork out crazy money for this kid.
Except he won’t go there because apparently no star wants to play in SF
“poop on the sidewalk” comment in three, two, one…
“Dumb enough to fork out crazy money”..Whomever pays Soto will almost certainly regret it in just a couple years. Soto is reportedly young, not particularly athletic or fleet and I could see him packing on 35 extra pounds by the time he stops growing (by age 28 or 29). At that point he’ll be practically unplayable in the OF and be just an Uber expensive DH and double play machine.
Hal is definitely going to need to pay a hefty price for Soto to stay, but this has to happen. Cashman and the Yankees blew it once already for not pursuing Harper during his free agency, they can’t do that again.
“Hal is definitely going to need”…I’m no CPA, but if the Yankees sign Soto won’t they incur a sizable penalty for being so far over the tax line?
mlb fan: Not if they defer the majority of the money, like the LAD did with Ohtani.
Some things to keep in mind.
Soto turned down 15 years and $36 million AAV from Seidler to stay in San Diego. It’s a given that it will take more to sign him than that.
Boras has already started talking about the fact that Soto’s career hitting numbers are comparable to Judge overall when he signed his contract and Soto will be 5 years younger in the 1st season of his new deal. Soto and Boras have been consistent in saying over the past 2 offseasons that the best hitters deserve pay commensurate with the best pitchers.
Soto will ask for in FA and get a higher AAV than Judge’s $40 million and likely equal to what Verlander and Scherzer were paid.
That means a $43 million AAV which will keep the Yankees firmly in the Cohen Tax category and cost them 110% above that amount in CBT fines in 2025.
If Soto is deferring money to bring the AAV for CBT purposes down to the $43 million area, that means a 14-year deal with the same level of deferments that Ohtani took would be for $840-$848 million.
Unlike Ohtani who has $30 million in annual endorsements earnings outside of his MLB salary, Soto does not have even $4 million per season in off the field earnings, I don’t see him taking a deal that defers 97.5% of his salary like Ohtani did, do you?
So realistically, Soto will be looking for and getting a deal that is for 14 years, possibly longer, and around $600 million.
Web
No way he gets that much unless there are massive deferrals
Even if your purported Friar discussions are accurate – and they are unverified at best – the landscape changed after this years Boras free agents went belli-up with a bad smell er snell.
Watch. He already turned down 15 years with a $36 million AAV and it is verified. Articles here about Seidler making him an offer and its been all over the radio in SD. He wants Verlander money. in terms of AAV He is going to get it too because of his age.
@Avenger Any deferred $ has to have principal needed to accrue to future value funded annually. That amount counts against the luxury tax. In Ohtani’s case the deferred money is $44M or 46M annually against the luxury tax, as well as the $2M salary collected.
So no teams can not just defer money and avoid the luxury tax. The funding of deferrals and their implications on luxury tax are outlined in detail in their CBA.
Great breakdown Web. I agree with most of your take.
I think no matter what team signs him, that at over a half billion contract the team will want some of that to be deferred. Maybe $100 million out of the $600 million or more he will be paid.
I always assumed part of why he turned it down is he saw the Nationals were going into a rebuild.
“Soto turned down 15 years and $36 million AAV from Seidler to stay in San Diego. It’s a given that it will take more to sign him than that”…Soto turning down big money in the past does suggest he’ll want at least that much in the future. That being said, as Boras found out last year, market conditions more than personal desires, will dictate contract terms. Just because Soto turned down $440M a few years ago doesn’t compel other owners to start the bidding at that number. If Boras overplays his hand(again)Soto will be lucky to get what Trea Turner got(from Phillies), because he’s really a below average defender who’s likely to DH for 75% of the contract length.
They’re already paying him 31M for this season. After this season they remove Torres, Verdugo, and Hicks from the payroll. They may even decide to let Rizzo walk. So they can resign Soto while lowering the payroll.
Even if they extend him they will still not win a world series before he retires
Soto wants the Yankees and the Yankees want Soto. But Boras is gonna have to try to squeeze every penny out of the situation. He probably signs March of next year.
He’d be dumb not to get the Mets involved.
Time to hate Soto. Yanks by choice are the worst.
Sewald: Oh, most of the country hates the Yankees. That’s what I’ve heard from beat writers. One said 80% of BB fans hate them.
Oh haters will hate! It’s a system where they can spend and pay the tax. If you had a team and the means, you would spend too! They are not breaking any rules here! That’s what makes the Yankees great, having an owner that invests in the team every year!
Funny how any talks on here dealing with a Yankees player or a BoSox player ends up becoming a battle royale between either of those teams bandwagon fans. (unless you were sadly born in NY or BOS). I am sorry.
He will be another stanton. Good!
The phrase “Generational Talent” is thrown around too much lately. Ohtani? Generational. Soto? Not Generational. Gretzky? Generational. McDavid? Not Generational. In fact, there are long stretches of time when there are no generational players. There hasn’t been one in hockey since Gretzky retired.
Since the beginning of integrated baseball in 1947, that is the last 77 years, there have been 5 players with 500 or more games played that were as good of a hitter through their age 25 season as Soto has been. Five.
No matter how you slice it, that is a generational talent.
Mel ott, mantle, Ted Williams, Bryce harper and trout?
Not Generational. Look at Ohtani. No one in the history of the game can hit and pitch like him. He has exceeded the five tool maximum. Gretzky? If you ever saw him play, and if you’re honest, there hasn’t been a player like him since, and there are some good players in the NHL. It’s just that Generational is the buzzword at the moment, but it’s very rare to find a player worthy of that title.
“No matter how you slice it yhat is a generational talent”….”Generational talent” means they only come around once in a generation. It wouldn’t be hard to name 15 BETTER(than Soto) all-around players from just the last 5-7 years. Don’t buy the hype of “generational talent” with Soto. He’s an awfully good hitter whose lack of defensive acumen, athleticism and speed make him a likely DH within 3-4 years. Don’t be such a dupe and just parrot what the media says about Soto. They were saying the same things 3-5 yrs ago about Kris Bryant, Carlos Correa, Javier Baez, pitchers Giolitto/Rodon and Anthony Rendon. The only current player I’d call truly “generational” is Ohtani.
A generation is 20-25 years, and Gretzky retired 25 years ago, so by definition there has been a generational talent in hockey since he retired – Lemieux, Crosby, somebody.
A generation generally is 20 years, but in sports terms it’s probably more like 10 year periods. Limited prime durability and shifts in rules and strategy tend to cap sports generations. Think basketball – roughly 80s=Bird/Johnson, 90s=Jordan, 00s=Kobe/Shaq/Duncan, 10s=Lebron.
There have been a lot of great players in all sports, but being called Generational means super elite, a very high level of ability. Not all great players are not Generational. I don’t follow basketball, but Jordan could be called Generational They don’t necessarily come along every generation. It would be rare if someone did.
Top 6 in 80 years is elite in my book.
lol at Mcdavid not generational.
Can he do what Gretzky did?
Pretty Obvious soto was gonna resign
Yanks gave up alot for 1 yr of juan
And they got the $
And they got the little league park
And the big market for his ego
Who’s Hal? I only know Mr. Cashman.
Contrary to popular belief that Boras will Boras Soto till next March, I think the lumps he took this winter, highlighted by Monty firing him, will make him open to actually getting this done early. Yanks want Soto, Soto wants Yanks. Boras won’t eff this up and spite himself. He needs a big win and show teams he can play ball.
Soto will hold up the market.. Boras loses and gains new clients every year. He’s not changing his tactics.
Actually players like Soto set the market and much of free agency waits for that domino to fall. The Boras clients that linger almost always come with question marks.
Didn’t Harper/Machado linger? The question marks there were mostly $ and waiting games (Boras/clients waiting out teams, teams trying to wait out other teams).
“Boras won’t eff this up”…Good agents react to changing markets and try to put their clients in the best paying, winning situations. Scott Boras’ ego won’t allow him to react to changing conditions or changing markets and he often puts clients in bad situations for their long term career goals. See Kris Bryant.
What about Bryant? He is being massively over paid. Are you saying Boras did him wrong by getting him paid too much???
“What about Bryant”…No, I’m saying a good agent would have gotten his client MASSIVELY paid, but in a good, winning situation where he’s happy. Kris Bryant sounds like he hates Colorado with a passion and just last year Scott Boras had Jurickson Propar opt out from S.D, only to get the same money in a bad situation in Colorado. There’s dozens of similar examples of this with Scott Boras. Long-term career success and happiness is almost as important as getting a MASSIVE contract.
Nobody was going to pay Bryant what COL did. The season has started save your infatuation for Boras til the offseason…
My prediction is yanks offer 750/15
I can’t wait to hear the rumors about Soto flying to Toronto.
Do you look at statistics before speaking?
@oldyork sorry meant to reply to a different comment, disregard
This is not same Soto that was in San Diego last year. Good for him. They’ll turn on him when he starts looks for walks with RiSP.
But the Yanks certainly don’t have the pitching to really contend for a championship so good luck. Please by all means give the guy $500 million and the keys to wherever they play.
Do you look at statistics before speaking?
Starting at $750 and for those saying “but he doesn’t pitch”, either does Ohtani.
@James Midway
$1B and make it a deal. It’s only money and fans will pay for it all.
True $40 hot dogs for all
But he will beginning next year… that was the point
@Ma4170
Sure, but there is actually talk about whether he’s more valuable as a batter than having him pitch as well. He doesn’t pitch a lot of innings, about 96 per season over the career in the MLB. His body gave up on him at the end of the season last year, so how’s that going to be when he’s 34? I’ve also heard talk about using him as a closer instead of a SP, so he can still hit and then come in for the 9th to close games out.
I’ve wondered about that… a closer role
Frankly he’s become so good as a hitter im not sure i would want him pitching if i were the dodgers but he wants it clearly.
He will? He hasn’t started a throwing program yet, and a 2nd elbow procedure doesn’t turn out well 96% of the time. Will he be in the 4% that comes back to start games and has an ERA under 4.00. I wouldn’t make that bet. Time will tell.
I think he will actually. He’s shown he’s the type of athletic talent we don’t see often. Last year and so far this year he’s even become the best hitter in baseball. He was always top tier and had the pitching to boost his value, but now he doesn’t really even need it. 186 WRC+ and 1.070 OPS since start of last season.
There’s an offramp for Hal if he wants it. Assuming Cole comes back healthy, he opts out–and the Yankees don’t tack on the extra year to keep him. They don’t extend-re-sign Soto. With penalties, that’s close to $100M per year.
There’s slim to no chance Cole leaves.. Hal and Cole (and Judge) have a really good rapport.
Give 700 poor people a million dollars instead.
Depends. Can they throw a nasty cutter at 98MPH or hit 450 foot bombs? Then they might be worth it to a MLB organization.
What’s the return on investment on that?
“Give 700 poor people a million dollars”…I personally think that’s a great idea. Why don’t you get it started, by donating your home and all your money to the first 10 of those 700 people. That will set a good example and encourage some rich people into giving money to the other 690 poor people.
There’s a plane on its way to Toronto from New York….
No way Scott Boras will cap his market by having him sign an extension this close to free agency.
If he wants to stay in New York, it would be dumb not to get the Mets and Yankees both involved in the bidding.
Baron
The player tells the agent what to do, not the other way around.
Of course, but Boras will give advice, and signing 3-4 months before hitting free agency doesn’t make sense.
Anything the Yankees offer in July or August will presumably still be there in December.
Like Manny said, it’s ultimately up to the player. That said, there has go ro be a number Soto would agree upon and forgo hitting free agency. I’m sure there’s also a number where Boras would recommend him taking it opposed to hitting free agency.
$1 more than Ohtani’s deferral adjusted number would probably be a good start. Scotty will be keen to retake top spot.
As a yankee fan for 50 years I couldn’t care less if Soto goes to another team for an insane contract
Almost none of those insane contracts works in the end
Look at the constant complaining about Stanton and he was once a stud player
If Soto wants to play for the YANKEES let him accept a reasonable contract and not be a greedy horses smelly spot
Wanting to be paid appropriately relative to his peers and help to continue pushing salaries up for their future benefit is being a “greedy horses smelly spot?”
Playing for the YANKEES isn’t the end-all, be-all goal of every player, nor should it be. They have a great history, but they’re just another team right now.
lol. Get over yourself. Nobody gives a flying F if they could “play for the Yankes”
Captainmike1: What fanboys like you consider a “reasonable contract” is not market value for the player’s services.
And no matter how little he signs for, your cost of attending and/or watching games will not decrease.
ohyeadam: But they’re not the only team that does that. They don’t even have the highest payroll.
The whole point of wanting to play for the Yankees is they historically write huge checks
Some owner is going to pay Soto $600 million. Rather see it be Steinbrenner than Cohen but would not be at all surprised if it’s the Dodgers.
25 years old. 157 career OPS+. Top 5 or 6 hitter in past 80 years through age 25. He is going to get insane money.
I always knew this guy would end up a Yankee. Figured Harper would too, though he chose the next worst thing. Gross.
I hope the Yankees sign him so they get locked into another bad contract. How teams give out 10 plus years of guaranteed money is crazy. All those contracts turn out to be horrible, but some teams are dumb enough to do it. Baseball needs to restructure salaries and cap them.
“All those contracts”
Arod’s first deal
Lindor
Harper
Verlander
Scherzer
on and on
Why should baseball cap salaries? That would only mean more money in owners’ bank accounts.
The owners of teams are billionaires. They hire Ivy league brains to run their teams both in baseball operations and on the financial end. If long term contracts didn’t work out for the teams, it would not make business sense to continue to sign players to them, but they obviously are continuing to do so.
The question you have to ask yourself is what do billionaire owners and the Ivy league guys that run the teams know that you don’t?
They don’t know much, anyone can see those long-term deals end up being bad. The problem is most GMs only look at the here and now. The padres are a perfect example of stupid contracts. Machado should never have been resigned, bogarts is already declining in just the second year and that’s just two. The Yankees have several bad contracts and wait till judge falls off, the guy played a full season in his contract year. That guy will be a injury prone disaster in a couple years. I think baseball is going to have a big problem down the road as TV money is starting to fall apart.
I’m willing to bet anyone here that he gets more than 500M. Let me know if anyone wants that bet. He’s going to get around 600M over 14 /15 years.
It is very simple. If the Yankees wany to keep him, they will. If they think what his agent wants is nuts, they won’t.
I would vote for nuts if they want double digit years, but that’s just me. We have seen how that ends up on the back end for quite a while now.
RIDICULOUS!
The ONLY numbers that justify that sort of contract are…..OTHER BASEBALL players contracts…..
Not reality!
Not likely to continue in that trend unless they just want.to break the system…..
Literally nobody cares about the Yankees and Soto.
Literally millions of people do.
At least one person in this comments section doesn’t know the definition of literally.
Yankees may buy their 2nd title this year. First one was in 09. This one would be a little less embarrassing
Here’s my contract idea for the Yankees…..
The next 15 years at $3mil per.
Then 25 years at $40mil per.
How about 15 years at $20 million and then the next 15 years at $40 million.
Can’t wait for the Dodgers to lose in the playoffs this year and then sign Soto (and the other star FA) in an attempt to get them over the hump. Rinse repeat in 2025 as well.
Soto is a Yankee now. The only thing left to figure out is the number, which they will. The Dodgers? That’s a weird way to spell Yankees.
Keep telling yourself that. Soto is going to the highest bidder and the dodgers have cash because they deferred everyone’s payments.
The Yankees aren’t the Brewers. They won’t be outbid for Soto. Money will not be an issue, only his preference, which he just made clear to the entire world.
for those saying soto will be a DH-only for the majority of his contract, guess what? so will ohtani
How often do the Yankees not resign one of their own free agents that they prioritized resigning? Soto will resign. They want him and he wants them. And no, the Mets aren’t remotely the big stage that the Yankees are.
None. Bernie Williams almost signed with the Red Sox in 1999 before they increased their offer. If Hal Steinbrenner is coming out now to say that he wants to engage in talks with Boras, they’re not going to get outbid.